Anleihenkauf_Brasilien - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Axle2]

Hey Leute,

will mir die Anleihe 189750 ins depot legen.
sollte man bei hoher liquidität (ca.1Mio) ein limit
setzen? Oder einfach ab die order?
Wie macht ihr das so=

Danke

@xel

[Pfandbrief]

Spread in Frankfurt ist 99,00/99,20. Da brauchst nicht unbedingt ein Limit. Kannst aber genauso gut eins setzen, meinetwegen bei 99,10, vielleicht sparst ein paar cents.

[zonk66]

1)Brasilien = du kannst nur verlieren
2)empfehle Argentinien = du kannst nur gewinnen wenn du wie ich zu 20% eingestiegen bist
3)deine WPKN ist falsch
4)1ne Mio ohne Limit / machen nur neureiche
5)spaß gehört dazu,verarschen tun wir uns selber

[Pfandbrief]

zonk,

vielleicht solltest noch mal gaaaaaaaanz langsam das erste Posting lesen. Glaube Du hast da einiges nicht begriffen.

Die WKN stimmt übrigens auch.

Axle2,

beim Ordern noch beachten, dass die Währung DEM ist. Willst Du also z.B. für 3000 € kaufen, mußt du etwa Nominale DEM 6000 ordern.

[zonk66]

Pfandbrief was wir anderen vorwerfen trift uns IMMER selbst Psycho-Grundkurs

[lowkatmai]

WKN bzw. ISIN? Stimmt!!
Jedenfalls bei meiner Sparkasse!! geht`s. Nicht jedoch bei WO!!!

Warum jetzt aber die Anleihe noch kaufen? Stand bei 40,
da hätte man zulangen können. Aber auf dem aktuellen Niveau?

Dann aktuell lieber Argentinien.

Gruß lowkatmai

[Pfandbrief]

Die WKN stimmt. w:o hat seit einiger Zeit da Probleme.

Klar hätte man bei 40 zugreifen sollen. Wissen wir jetzt alle. Aber deswegen Argentinien empfehlen, ist schon ein etwas starkes Stück, denn Brasilien war bei Kurs 40 in einer deutlich besseren Lage als Argentinien heute.

[zonk66]

genau,lieber Argentinien

du scheinst lernwillig zu sein
Nach dem Buch Ordnungen der Liebe von Bert Hellinger wirst du deine Mio weiter vermehren und nicht alles verzocken

[lowkatmai]

Ja, ja der Bert,
nicht alles verzocken ist schon ein ganz guter Ratschlag.

Gruß lowkatmai

[Axle2]

danke für die rege beteiligung!

[hopy00]

ich würde mir das gut überlegen mit argentinien und mir erst eigene gedanke machen, bevor ich blind auf die meinungen anderer vertraue.

hier ist meine meinung: wenn kirchner durchkommt mit seinem cut auf 75% der nominale, was noch mindestens monate dauert,und zinsen dann auch nur 2-3% sind auf die neuen bonds, dann sind die jetzigen argykurse von ca 28% noch zu hoch. also vorsicht,sehr hohes risiko.


mfg hopy

[Axle2]

Habe mir nominal 20.000 zu 99.60% ins depot gelegt!
Nochmals Danke; und Pfandbrief der Hinweis zur DM_Anleihe
hat mir sehr geholfen.

@xle

[K1K1]

Brazil, IMF to Agree on $14 Billion Loan Accord, Palocci Says

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, the largest debtor in the developing world, proposed a new $14 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund to help reassure investors the country will have enough cash to meet debt payments, Finance Minister Antonio Palocci said.

The proposed one-year agreement would include a pledge by the fund to provide $6 billion in fresh loans as well as the $8 billion that will be leftover from the current agreement. The government opted not to draw on the final installment of its current IMF loan pledge.

``This will be a preventive accord,`` Palocci said at a press conference in Brasilia. ``We will only draw funds from this agreement if there is a need for it.``
Last Updated: November 5, 2003 16:11 EST

[K1K1]

Fitch Upgrades Brazil`s Sovereign Rtg to `B+`; Outlook Stable. 06 Nov 2003 10:11 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-New York-November 6, 2003: Fitch Ratings today upgrades Brazil`s sovereign rating to `B+` from `B`, reflecting the improving performance of the country`s economy as well as its macroeconomic policy framework. Fitch believes that the precautionary agreement with the IMF announced Nov. 5 demonstrates the commitment of the Brazilian authorities to appropriate fiscal policy settings and signals the IMF`s intention to help financially insulate Brazil from external shocks over the medium term. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Balance of payments performance in Brazil has improved and should continue to underpin an easing external debt burden. Brazil`s trade surplus is likely to exceed US$23 billion this year, up from US$13.1 billion last year, as exports have expanded 20% in the year to end-October. Brazil`s diverse export base is reflected in strong growth in exports to China and the European Union and in such products as soy beans, metals and transportation equipment. As a result, Brazil could show a small current account surplus this year of nearly US$3 billion, the first since 1993. A rebound in domestic demand next year will probably push the current account back into deficit. This, combined with external amortizations of US$36.9 billion next year, would result in a high external financing need of 52% of current external receipts, though down from 111% in 1999.

Capital inflows have improved, with a rollover rate on medium and long-term debt amortizations of 85% in the year to September, about where Fitch estimates rollover rates need to be to keep foreign exchange reserves stable. The IMF program announced this week would make near-term balance of payments support available (including US$6 billion in new funds) and pushes forward heavy amortization payments due in 2005. Likewise, the program signals the Fund`s support of Brazil`s macroeconomic policy framework and financial backing in the event of unforeseeable shocks.

Monetary policy has been successful in the last year, yielding a reduction in consumer price inflation from a high of 17.2% in May (year-on-year) to 14.0% in October and likely below 10% by year-end. In the process, the monetary authorities have already unwound 750 basis points (bps) of the 850 bps in rate hikes made over the last year. Further rate cuts are likely, given inflation expectations for next year near 6%, which should continue to underpin a rebound in economic activity. Yet recent double-digit private sector wage hikes suggest that backward wage indexation could slow progress on inflation reduction and therefore any future monetary easing. Likewise, such wage settlements could have a fiscal impact if they translate into higher wage pressures in the public sector next year.

The Brazilian authorities have agreed to maintain a 4.25% public sector primary surplus target through 2004. Fitch believes that Brazil`s high government debt burden and heavy external financing needs warrant a primary surplus of 4.25% of GDP or higher over the medium term. Gross general government debt is expected to end 2003 at 79% of GDP, comparing unfavorably with other speculative grade sovereigns. Higher primary surpluses would increase the likelihood of a virtuous cycle of lower real interest rates, higher GDP growth, a firm exchange rate, and therefore a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, which Fitch believes would be necessary for further improvements in sovereign creditworthiness. Debt management operations this year, which have reduced the sovereign`s foreign currency exposure by US$14.4 billion, support sovereign creditworthiness. The portion of U.S. dollar-indexed liabilities fell to 25.5% of total domestic debt by late October from 37% at year-end 2002. An economic environment of slow growth and declining inflation this year has put tax revenues under pressure, with real tax revenues (excluding non-recurring items) up only 1.6% in September 2003 over the year-earlier period, versus an average of 5.7% 3Q03/3Q02 and 16.7% 2Q03/2Q02. Nevertheless, through spending restraint, the authorities have achieved a primary surplus of R$57 billion in September YTD, exceeding the R$54.2 billion target. Yet Brazil`s margin above its target has narrowed, and unless economic activity picks up, the authorities could be pressed to produce the requisite primary surpluses next year in an environment of high unemployment (12.9% in September) and expectations of increased social spending under the Lula government.

Finally, President Lula remains popular and commands majorities in Congress nearly large enough to pass Constitutional amendments. Fitch expects social security, tax and bankruptcy reforms to pass by early 2004, which, while modest in economic terms, will represent major political victories. Second-stage reforms in revenue earmarking, central bank autonomy, social security, taxation, privatization and regulation would be important for future sovereign credit improvements.

[K1K1]

Brazil Cuts Benchmark Rate to Two-Year Low of 17.5% (Update1)

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil`s central bank lowered benchmark lending rates for a sixth straight month to fuel consumer spending and spark a recovery in South America`s largest economy.

Policy makers cut the overnight target rate 1.5 percentage points to 17.5 percent, the lowest in two years and down 9 points from 26.5 percent in June. Companies such as Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Latin America`s second-largest steelmaker, and Banco Itau SA, Brazil`s largest bank by market value, say falling rates have started to spur consumer demand.

``We are finally beginning to see our clients rebuild their inventories as the year comes to an end, and there are signals of growing demand for steel in the domestic market,`` Marcelo Araujo, managing director for administration at Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Latin America`s second-largest steelmaker, said in an interview in New York.

Brazil`s currency, the real, has dropped 2.5 percent in November on speculation the decline in rates will reduce demand for assets denominated in the local currency. The real was unchanged today at 2.9405 reais to the dollar at 4:10 p.m. in New York.

The government`s most-traded security, the 8 percent bond due in 2014, rose 0.24 cent on the dollar to 95.15, pushing down the yield to 9.23 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The Bovespa stock index, which climbed to a record high last week before paring gains, fell 0.03 percent to 18,807.34.

Consumer Spending

Banco Itau is starting to see an increase in demand for loans and expects consumer spending to drive economic growth next year, said Alfredo Setubal, executive vice president at the bank, in an interview in New York.

``The growth in Brazil next year will be totally dependent on consumer spending,`` Setubal said.

Itau itself may increase lending 10 percent to 15 percent next year as the economy expands about 3 percent, Setubal said in a separate televised interview with Bloomberg News. Growth probably won`t exceed 4 percent in coming years, Setubal said. The government forecasts the economy will grow less than 1 percent this year, compared with 6.5 percent in Russia.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former union leader elected a year ago on pledges to create 8 million jobs by 2006, is counting on lower rates to help revive the economy. Brazil`s gross domestic product shrank 1.4 percent in the second quarter from the same period last year, the biggest contraction since 1998.

`Soonest`

``Lula must deliver on this front soonest,`` said Vitali Meschoulam, director for Latin America at New York-based political risk adviser Eurasia Group. ``But he has to balance between stability and his platform. It`s not an easy choice.``

The central bank lifted rates from the start of the year to help fight inflation.

Between February and June, the bank kept the overnight rate at a four-year high of 26.5 percent to curb a surge in inflation triggered by last year`s one-third plunge in the currency.

Lula`s policies, including the largest budget cut in Brazil`s history, have helped restore investor confidence in the government`s ability to pay its debts, contributing to a 20 percent rise in the currency this year against the dollar.

That currency rally helped bring down prices for imports, pushing down the annual inflation rate to 14 percent in October from 17.2 percent in May -- a seven-year high. Annual inflation will slow to 8.9 percent by the end of this year, the central bank has said.

December

The government today said consumer prices rose 0.17 in the month through Nov. 11, half the increase investors expected.

Still, the rate reductions may weaken the currency and trigger inflation, said economists such as Newton Rosa of Sul America Investimentos.

``The bank faces a difficult challenge: If it cuts rates too much, too fast, it could spark inflation and it could also cause insecurity in the markets,`` Siderurgica`s Araujo said.

Itau`s Setubal said he expects the overnight rate to fall to 17 percent by yearend and as low as 13.5 percent next year.
Last Updated: November 19, 2003 16:15 EST

[K1K1]

Brazil`s Senate Passes Pension Bill in Final Vote (Update1)

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil`s Senate gave final congressional approval to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva`s legislation curbing public employees` pensions, a measure he has called critical to narrowing the country`s budget deficit.

The Senate approved the legislation, which raises the retirement age for federal workers and forces them to fund a bigger share of their own pensions, in a 51-24 vote. The changes will save the government about 50 billion reais ($17 billion) over the next 18 years, according to Social Security Minister Ricardo Berzoini.

``We expected the social security reform to be passed, the tax reform to move ahead, be it this year or early next year, so that`s on track,`` said Lisa Schineller, director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor`s, in a phone interview from New York.

Lula made cutting government pensions a cornerstone of his efforts to bolster investor confidence in Brazil`s ability to pay its $400 billion in debt, the largest among developing economies. S&P, which said last month progress on the legislation might lead to raising the outlook on Brazil`s ratings to ``positive,`` changed the rating earlier today, citing a growing trade surplus and falling interest rates. Fitch Inc. last month raised its ratings on Brazil`s debt to B+, four levels below investment grade, citing Congress` commitment to passing the bill.

Brazil had a pension deficit of 56.8 billion reais last year, or 4.3 percent of the country`s gross domestic product, according to Brazil`s social security ministry. Civil servants pension fund deficit accounted for 39.8 billion reais, or 70 percent of the total, the ministry said.

Stocks, Bonds

Brazil`s pension deficit for private and public employees may widen to about 90 billion reais this year from 71 billion reais in 2002, Berzoini said in an interview in September.

The legislation will generate savings by reducing pensions for civil servants hired after the law takes effect, and by imposing an 11 percent tax on pensions above 1,440 reais.

Brazil`s currency strengthened 0.4 percent, to 2.9370 to the dollar. The country`s benchmark 8 percent bond that matures in 2014 rose 0.44 cent on the dollar to 97.19, narrowing its yield to 8.7 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. It closed at a record high of 98.13 on Monday.

Brazil`s benchmark stock index climbed for fourth day in five to reach a record as S&P raised the foreign currency credit rating outlook. The Bovespa gained 323.70 points, or 1.5 percent, to 21,296.30.
Last Updated: December 11, 2003 17:57 EST

[K1K1]

Kursanstieg der Brasilien-Bonds ein "Meilenstein für die Schwellenländer"

Meistgehandelte Emerging-Markets-Anleihe notiert erstmals über pari - Investoren spekulieren auf Tausch zum Marktwert in einen anderen Bond

Buenos Aires - Der Kurs der brasilianischen Benchmarkanleihe ist erstmals über den Nominalwert gestiegen. Am Donnerstag kletterte die 2014 fällige Staatsanleihe mit einem Kupon von acht Prozent bis auf 100,38 Cent je Dollar Nominalwert, am Freitag in der Spitze sogar bis auf 100,50. Auf diesem Niveau hat Brasilien die Option, die Anleihe - der meistgehandelte Schwellenländer-Bond überhaupt - im April zu pari zurückzuzahlen.

Die Aussichten auf einen Konjunkturaufschwung in Südamerikas größter Volkswirtschaft treiben die Nachfrage nach den Anleihen an. "Das ist offensichtlich so etwas wie ein Meilenstein für die Schwellenmärkte", sagt Michael Ellis, Fondsmanager bei Standard Bank London. "Dass der C-Bond bei pari notiert, ist ziemlich verblüffend." Die Rendite fiel 0,19 Prozentpunkte auf ein Rekordtief bei 7,9 Prozent.

Der brasilianische Staat kann die Anleihe im April zum Nominalwert zurückkaufen. Anleger setzen jedoch darauf, dass Brasilien ihnen zum aktuellen Kurs den Tausch in eine andere Anleihe anbieten wird. Der C-Bond wurde vor zehn Jahren im Rahmen einer Umschuldung unter Federführung des amerikanischen Finanzministers Nicholas Brady aufgelegt. Insgesamt sind Papiere im Volumen von 6,5 Mrd. Dollar im Umlauf, die 2014 fällig werden.

Der Kursanstieg über 100 spiegelt die Erwartung der Investoren wider, dass die Regierung von Präsident Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva entscheiden wird, die Anleihe in den kommenden Tagen zum Marktwert zu tauschen, anstatt bis April zu warten, erläuterte Martin Schubert, Portfoliomanager bei European Interamerican Finance in Miami. Christian Stracke, Analyst beim Research-Unternehmen Credit Sights New York, erwartet hingegen, dass Brasilien noch mindestens eine Woche wartet, bis es einen Tausch der C-Bonds anbietet. Bei weiter steigenden Kursen könnte Brasilien die neuen Anleihen mit einer niedrigeren Emissionsrendite auf den Markt bringen und damit bei der Finanzierung sparen. Ein Tausch am Donnerstag hätte dem Land eine Ersparnis von rund 90 Mio. Dollar gebracht. Sollte die Rendite weitere 25 Basispunkte fallen, würde die Ersparnis laut Stracke auf 135 Mio. Dollar steigen.

Einige andere Brasilien-Anleihen sind im Vergleich noch stärker gestiegen als der Benchmarkbond, da manche Anleger den C-Bond nicht zu oder über pari kaufen wollten, weil die Kündigungsoption besteht. Während der Kurs der 2014 fälligen Anleihe seit dem 27. Oktober 8,4 Cent zugelegt hat, ist der Kurs der 2010 fälligen Anleihe (Kupon: 9,25 Prozent) fast 13 Cent geklettert.

Der Kursanstieg der Benchmarkanleihe steht deutlich im Gegensatz zur Situation im September 2002, als ihr Kurs bis auf 48,25 Cent je Dollar absackte. Investoren befürchteten damals vor den Wahlen, dass die neue brasilianische Regierung ihren Zahlungsverpflichtungen nicht nachkommen würde. Die Kurse erholten sich, als Lula kurz nach seinem Amtsantritt immense Ausgabenkürzungen in Gang brachte und das Vertrauen in die Fähigkeit des Landes, seine Schulden zu bezahlen, wieder herstellte. Bloomberg

[K1K1]

Brazil Names Citigroup, Deutsche for 30-Yr Bond Sale (Update2)

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil named Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG to manage an international bond sale as a rally in Latin American debt pares the region`s borrowing costs.

The bonds will have a 30-year maturity, according to investors such as Raphael Kassin, who helps manage about $1 billion of emerging-market debt at ABN Amro Asset Management, and Nicholas Field, who helps manage $600 million of emerging-market debt at WestLB Asset Management, who were approached by the banks. A central bank spokeswoman said Brazil wouldn`t comment on details of the sale until it is completed.

``There is a lot of demand for everything that is emerging markets at the moment,`` Field said in a telephone interview from London. He said he expects Brazil to sell at least $1 billion of the bonds.

Brazil`s benchmark 2014 bond, the most widely traded emerging market security, has surged to 100.75 cents on the dollar from 83.25 cents on Aug. 4, the day before a 15-month rally quickened. The bond`s yield has fallen to 7.81 percent, or 4.54 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity.

Investors have been lured to the higher yields on Brazilian and other Latin American debt as a global economic recovery pushes up prices of commodities the region exports -- such as soybeans, copper and oil -- and helps borrowers repay their debts.
Last Updated: January 12, 2004 10:28 EST