Warum die kanadischen Ölaktien noch eine lange Rallye vor sich haben - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Kostolany4]

Die kanadischen Öl- und Gasaktien boomen seit etwa einem halben Jahr, insbesondere die Ölsandaktien.



Diese Aktien kommen förmlich aus dem Dornröschenschlaf. Nachdem erstmals seit über 20 Jahren wieder eine Ölkrise droht und der Ölpreis auf ein 20-Jahreshoch kletterte, begannen diese Aktien zunächst zaghaft, dann immer schneller zu steigen. Zuletzt legten sie auch ein paar "Bocksprünge" hin.

Ich behaupte: diese Aktien, soweit sie Substanz haben, stehen im Lichte von PEAK OIL immer noch erst am Anfang einer gigantischen Neubewertung.

Noch sind die Aktien totale Insidertips ! Der Mainstream nimmt noch nicht einmal Notiz davon. In den Videotexttafeln von n-tv findet man keine dieser Aktien. In den Börsenjournalen werden sie nicht besprochen. In den Musterdepots der Börsengurus kommen sie nicht vor.

Das alles kommt aber noch !

Nachdem alles andere zusammenkracht und diese Aktien weiter steigen werden, wird sich auf einmal alles darauf stürzen. Zuletzt wird es einen regelrechten Hype geben, wie seinerzeit bei den Internetaktien. Die Rallye dauerte damals über 3 Jahre. Bei den Ölaktien läuft diese Rallye gerade mal ein gutes halbes Jahr.

Einen günstigeren Einstieg in diese Aktien wird es kaum noch geben. In einem solchen Bullenmarkt muß man immer zu Höchstkursen kaufen. Kleinere Korrekturen beim Ölpreis können den Einstieg evtl. erleichtern, darauf ist aber kein Verlass.

[Kostolany4]

Ein weiteres Argument in Kanada zu investieren ist der kanadische Dollar

Canada is the world’s ninth largest crude oil producer and they continue to climb up the list with production in oil sands increasing
regularly. In 2000, Canada surpassed Saudi Arabia as the US’ most significant oil supplier. Unbeknownst to many, the size of their oil
reserves is second only to Saudi Arabia. The geographical proximity between the US and Canada as well as the growing political
uncertainty in the Middle East and South America makes Canada one of the more desirable places for the US to import oil from. Yet
Canada does not just service US demand. The country’s vast oil resources are beginning to get a lot of attention from China especially
since Canada has recently stumbled upon a new stash of oil after a reclassification of their Alberta oil sands to the economically
recoverable category. China has begun to take stakes in Canadian oil companies including picking up a one-sixth interest in MEG
Energy Corp. PetroChina International also signed a cooperation agreement with one of Canada’s largest pipeline companies. China-
Canada energy cooperation is only expected to increase further barring any huge protests by the US. China currently imports 32% of
its oil and according to a report by the International Energy Agency, China’s import needs are expected to double by 2010 and match
that of the US by 2030. This makes Canada and the Canadian dollar one of the best currencies positioned to benefit from a continual
surge in oil prices.

http://www.refconews.com/main/CADJPY.pdf

[Kostolany4]

Die internen Schätzungen von Canadian Natural Resources belaufen sich - neben den gesicherten Reserven von 1,7 Mrd. Barrel konventionellem Öl - auf 6,0 Mrd. Barrel synthetischem Öl von WTI-Qualität aus Ölsänden.

Die Produktion des neuen Ölsandprojekts HORINZON OIL SANDS PROJECT beginnt 2008 mit 110.000 Tagesbarrel.

In Phase 2 2010 werden es 155.000 Tagesbarrel.
In Phase 3 2012 werden es 232.000 Tagesbarrel - 37 Jahre lang.

Die internen Schätzungen der Firma belaufen sich jedoch auf die doppelte Ölmenge.

Die Produktion eines Barrel kostet ca. 20 Dollar.

Wer Lust hat, kann den Umsatz und Gewinn bei verschiedenen Ölpreisen durchrechnen.
(Bei angenommenen 100 Dollar ist der Wert des Öls 770.000.000.000 Dollar)

Das Kurspotential der Aktie dürfte mindestens 300% betragen.

[Kostolany4]

Heute wieder eindrucksvolle Reaktion auf einen Ölpreisanstieg von +2,2%

UTS +9,05%
Western Oil Sands + 5,06%
Canadian Natural +5,3%
Suncor Energy + 3,6%

Durchschnittliche Kurssteigerung in den letzten 90 Tagen: +75%

[Malsehnoder]

Hallo Kost4.
hast wahrscheinlich deine Bordmails nicht angeschaut.
Gruß malsehnoder

[Kostolany4]

@Malsehnoder
Danke für den Tip Canwest Petroleum. Mit 33 Mio. Mkap und den Aussichten auf angeblich mehrere Milliarden Barrel Öl ist diese Firma tatsächlich ein Schnäppchen.

Auf der Homepage steht folgendes Intro:

CanWest Petroleum Corporation is a unique oil and gas company with exposure to significant upside value from two large world-class projects with potential for several billion barrels oil resource while developing a sustainable production cash flow from traditional oil and gas development drilling.
Thornton Donaldson, President, noted "Our Company has strategically positioned itself as the controlling shareholder of Oilsands Quest Inc., a private Calgary based company that now holds the largest prospective land position in the Athabasca Tar Sands Region. Oilsands Quest Inc. is the operator and under the direction of its` president Christopher Hopkins is prepared for a major exploration program starting before the end of February 2005 with the potential to discover a world class oil resource of several billion barrels which is in keeping with the reserves to the west. This is truly a major achievement for an emerging-growth junior company such as ours"

Mr. Hopkins was a Senior Vice President of Synenco Energy Inc during its formative years which now plans to produce 100,000 barrels oil/day by 2009 with announced reserves of more than 1.5 billion barrels oil from its Northern Lights Project. Mr. Hopkins has extensive experience in all aspects of exploration and development of Athabasca Oil Sands projects. Karim Hirji, is Chief Financial Officer of Oil Sand Quest Inc. Mr. Hirji, who was also employed at Synenco in a similar capacity, has senior experience in reporting requirements, governance, and financing of oil sands projects.

http://www.canwestpetroleum.com/s/Home.asp

Wäre vielleicht einen eigenen Thread wert ?

[Kostolany4]

aus Business Week:

(Auszug aus Experten-Interview)

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jul2005/nf200507…

Q: What are your favorite energy plays? Is it too late to get into the sector?
A: No, it`s not too late. Hard to believe, but virtually no Wall Street analyst believes that oil prices are going to stay in an uptrend. What this means is that energy stocks are currently valued as if oil prices are going to come down -- and come down a lot (30% or more), over the next three to five years. Plus, if I`m right, the entire energy sector is exceptionally cheap. Beyond the usual suspects such as Nabors Industries, Suncor Energy, and the oil producers are some interesting alternative energy plays. These include Air Products & Chemicals, FPL Group, and Exelon.

Q: I would welcome your opinion on EnCana (ECA ) and Transocean (RIG ).
A: Both those stocks are in our portfolio, and we like them both very much. EnCana, as with Suncor, has a stake in the Canadian oil sands and has an excellent production future -- i.e., it`s going to be increasing in the foreseeable future. Combine that with rising oil prices, and you have a genuine growth stock, which is trading at a very modest multiple of less than 13 times earnings.

As for Transocean, it is by a wide margin the most significant and largest deepwater driller for oil, and if there are any additional significant hydrocarbons to be found in the world, they`re going to be found in the deepest waters. This highly leveraged driller should see torrid growth for many years.

Q: What`s your take on the China National Offshore Oil Co. (CNOOC ) takeover bid for Unocal (UCL ) and whether it might be -- or should be -- blocked in Washington?
A: I don`t think that the bid should be blocked simply because China is trying to buy oil assets. The security argument rings hollow. What China buys from Unocal it won`t buy from other sources in the world. So we really don`t have an overall issue regarding security.

However, if it`s determined that CNOOC was financed in an unfair way by the government, that should be considered. If Chevron got a loan from a state and used it to do something unethical, that would also be investigated.

In this I feel very strongly that the public, rather than focusing on China`s buying U.S. oil assets, should focus on why they`re buying these assets, and why they`re doing something that will clearly result in repercussions in Washington.

My take is that they`re doing this because they believe oil prices are heading dramatically higher over the longer term. Like any investor, if they believe any commodity is heading dramatically higher, they want to own as much of it as they possibly can. I think the Chinese government "gets it" as far as energy goes much more clearly than we do. For me, that is the real message of the CNOOC bid.

Q: Is now the time to buy Chevron (CVX ), considering the bidding war with China? Or Unocal (UCL )?
A: I think Chevron`s a fine company to own. We don`t recommend it that aggressively because we believe there are better values in the sector. But for anybody wanting income and a stake in rising energy prices, Chevron, with a 3% yield, is certainly a solid holding.

As for Unocal, I would not recommend it. It`s no longer an energy stock at this point in time -- it`s a stock involved in a bidding war. We`d leave it to the U.S. Congress to determine where they`re headed. I would add, though, that were Chevron to prevail and buy Unocal, even with a bid 10% higher than CNOOC`s, I would regard it as a long-term positive for Chevron

Q: What can an individual investor do to make profits in this volatile environment?
A: That`s a very good question. The market has been a very difficult one, but I believe that the energy sector is undervalued, if you believe oil prices are going higher, and it certainly has been one of the few consistently rewarding sectors around. I don`t see anything coming that will change that

We would also be looking at metals, particularly gold and silver. Long-term interest rates are currently not much above the inflation rate. In economic terms, that means real interest rates are very low. Historically, that has been a very strong correlation with rising gold prices. So it could be that, as in the 70s, our market is going to be fractured, in which a very few sectors, gold and energy, do extremely well, but the rest of the market lags significantly.

Q: Won`t alternate energy sources eventually bring down oil prices?
A: I hope so. That`s a very complicated question. The short answer is, eventually, yes. But the caveats include extremely long lag times between bringing on alternative energies, between the planning and fruition stages in these alternative sources. For example, were we to start building a new nuclear plant today from scratch, it could easily take as long as a decade to finish.

For me, and I realize I`m on a soapbox right now, by far the most interesting alternative energy is wind. In the June 24 issue of Science magazine, there`s a peer-reviewed article by a Stanford professor who argues that electricity generated from wind could economically generate, via downstream production of hydrogen gas, enough to fuel the entire vehicle fleet in the U.S.

Clearly, this is an aggressive statement, but it does come from a very reputable source in one of the most reputable science magazines in the world. The biggest players in wind, in case you want an investment angle, would be FPL, General Electric, and Scottish Power (SPI ).

Q: Do you see any near-term opportunities in the oil-equipment segment?
A: If you mean stocks like Halliburton (HAL ) and Schlumberger (SLB ), I think they represent wonderful opportunities. We`d advise accumulating shares in both.

Q: What`s the best way for investors to play the strong economic growth in China?
A: Certainly oil represents a very good play in China, but so do many other companies. Indeed, any company that has an established and strong presence in China is a very good investment. Some of our favorites include Coca-Cola (KO ), for whom we believe China will turn out to be another Japan, perhaps even more significant. Plus Procter & Gamble (PG ), Intel (INTC ), and Texas Instruments (TXN ).

In all these cases, we believe these companies will be able to sustain unit growth of 15% or so for the foreseeable future. Combine that with very probable currency gains from the appreciation of the Chinese currency, which is inevitable, and you have companies looking at very rapid growth for a long, long time.

Q: Is it economical to go after the tar sands in Canada?
A: It`s economical, and indeed, Suncor, EnCana, PetroCanada (PCZ ), and Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF ) are four companies with very strong production growth rates by virtue of their stake in the tar sands. However, there`s a limit to what we can expect the tar sands to produce, as mining these sands happens to be energy-intensive and unfriendly to the environment. Still, this should be a very fruitful area for many years, and each of these four companies should be very strong performers.