FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 190)

[meinolf67]

23 July 2008 | By Tom Cheyney | Chip Shots

Several times since early May, when Chip Shots carried the inside scoop that First Solar had been awarded the bid for the first installation in Southern California Edison's 250-MW, $875-million five-year project to install photovoltaics modules on a couple of square miles of commercial rooftops in the region, I had tried without success to get the Edison people to confirm my information.

Last week, when I was swept up in the hurly-burly of Semicon/Intersolar in San Fran, the official news came out from both Edison and First Solar that the cadmium-telluride thin-film PV kingpins had won the job. The announcement also mentioned Edison's and First's agreement, under a PPA, to build a 7.5--21-MW ground-mounted solar PV power plant in the southeastern California desert near Blythe (actually not far from the PV-powered state prisons covered in another blog). Then a little earlier today (or later tomorrow, if you're on the other side of the dateline), First came out with a self-congratulatory press release ballyhooing the inauguration of its first module-manufacturing line in Kedah, Malaysia.

I've had a chance to compare my original early April commentary on Edison's rooftop PV project with the recent announcements, and would like to point out a few changes in the info and the numbers.


The early reporting had the first module installation starting on top of the ProLogis-owned Kaiser Distribution Center in Fontana in June, when actually it began July 14 or July 16, depending on whether you believe the First or Edison PRs, respectively. Another scrap from the initial stories said the system would come online in August or September, the period of high peak power use in a hot zone like SoCal's Inland Empire. The latest info skips any mention of August and states that the system will grid-connect in early September. Finally, the early estimates put the total number of commercial roofs expected to be photovoltaicized at around 100, now the number has ballooned a bit to about 150.

Edison's original module estimate for the job was around 10,000 panels per megawatt, for a total about 2.5 million for all 250 MW, once installed. That comes out to a nice, round 100 MW per module. Also, the first installation was given as 2.2 MW, which would have calculated to 22,000 panels, give or take.

The latest numbers put the number of panels much higher and the size of the initial rooftop array a bit smaller. Some 33,000 FS Series 2 CdTe modules will be racked up on top of the warehouse (will it be the 60, 62, or 65 W models, given the +/- 5% nominal power rating?), capable of providing 2 MW of juice to the grid. That's alot more panels for 200 KW less power output, but then again, those are units with conversion efficiencies of ~10% but a lighter/smaller footprint and more attractive price tag than many of the competitors' silicon-based modules.

What do those 33,000 modules and 2 MW represent in terms of what First expects to install worldwide this year? About 0.5% of the 400 MW planned for plug in.

For the sake of argument, say First Solar eventually wins all the Edison bids to supply all the modules. Instead of that original Edison estimate of 2.5 million, the total number of panels needed would be in the neighborhood of 4.125 million, at today's specs and capabilities. Allowing for better efficiencies and higher power outputs, that number might dip below 4 million, but not by much.

But I doubt that the TFPV leader will win all the business, since Edison wants to use the project to compare and contrast different types of PV. In a few years, with the installations quite well along, the first concentrator PV modules and CIGS-based panels might be in the bidding mix, as long as their price points are low enough for the extra conversion efficiency pop they will provide, which would significantly lower the actual number of units needed per megawatt.

In the meantime, if a non-thin-film PV module-maker wins the next bid, Edison won't have to change the little graphic and explanation at the bottom of its most recent press release that depicts how a solar cell works--a wafer-based, crystalline silicon cell, that is, with nary a CdTe (or any other) thin-film-layer-on-glass shown or mentioned.

[meinolf67]

16.07.2008 14:25
First Solar Announces Two California Solar Projects with Southern California Edison

First Solar, (News) Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) announced today that Southern California Edison (SCE) has selected First Solar to engineer and supply the PV power plant system for a 2 megawatt project to be installed on the roof of a commercial building in Fontana, CA. This is the first installation in SCE's plan to install 250 megawatts of solar generating capacity on large commercial rooftops throughout Southern California over the next five years. SCE began installation of this initial project on July 14, 2008, and expects to connect the PV power plant to the grid in September 2008. In March, SCE, with California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, announced the five-year solar PV installation project, which is the largest rooftop solar program ever proposed by a U.S. utility.

In addition, on July 10, 2008, the CPUC approved project terms of a 20 year power purchase agreement between First Solar and SCE for the sale of electricity generated by a PV power plant. First Solar plans to build the new plant in Blythe, CA. The PV power plant will be a minimum of 7.5 megawatts, with an option by First Solar to increase the size to 21 megawatts, and when completed will be the largest ground based PV power plant in California. First Solar will serve as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor for the PV power plant, and maintain the PV power plant over its lifetime. Subject to the satisfaction of remaining contingencies, including the extension of the federal solar investment tax credit, First Solar expects to begin construction of the PV power plant in 2009.

”By harnessing the clean, renewable energy of the sun that is abundant in California, these innovative solar projects are helping to meet our long-term energy and climate change goals,“ Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said. ”These projects are evidence that California's ingenuity is spurring a clean tech boom that will bring companies and investment dollars to California while reducing the state's carbon footprint.“

The Governor has set a goal of increasing California's renewable energy sources to 20 percent by 2010, and he supports reaching 33 percent by 2020.

”These projects represent significant steps towards the deployment of low cost, solar electric generation resources for California,“ said Mike Ahearn, CEO of First Solar. ”First Solar looks forward to developing these and other projects which will move California closer to its renewable energy and greenhouse gas reduction goals.“

”We are pleased to be working with First Solar on these important renewable energy projects,“ said SCE President John R. Fielder. ”Their successful bid to supply the first system for our major utility solar project is helping SCE provide solar PV generation to our customers at a lower cost than traditional PV installations.“

First Solar is the cost leader in the solar PV industry, driven by an advanced thin film semiconductor manufacturing process. At the end of 2007, over 300 megawatts of First Solar PV modules had been installed worldwide, with an additional 400 megawatts scheduled for installation in 2008. With its project partners, First Solar has supplied several of the largest ground and rooftop PV power plants in the world.

[meinolf67]

https://www.pge.com/regulation/RenewablePortfolioStdsOIR-II/…

[meinolf67]

extrem interessant:

https://www.pge.com/regulation/RenewablePortfolioStdsOIR-II/…

FSLR will ein erstes Kraftwerk als Stromliefrant für PGE betreiben.

-der Preis liegt unter "MPR"
-das Projekt bedarf des ITC

[StLaurent]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.488.511 von meinolf67 am 11.07.08 13:47:14

45MWp/Linie - so isses...

Und das bei
- 3 in Perrysburg
- 4 in Frankfurt Oder
- 4 in Malaysia
- bald 12 weiteren in Malaysia (ab 2009).

Macht dann 23x45=1,035GWp. Hat sonst in dem Volumen kein anderer (auch nicht kristallin). Und dann noch dazu mit großem Abstand im Moment Kostenführer...

Zum Vergleich: Der Gesamt-Markt in D war in 2006 ca. 1 GWp...

[meinolf67]

July 11, 2008, 11:24 am
First Solar jumps into the utility business

When it comes to solar companies, First Solar is the Google of renewable energy. The Tempe, Ariz.-based solar cell maker backed by the Wal-Mart (WMT)’s Walton family has seen its stock skyrocket over the past year, hitting a high of $317 on May 14. (It was trading at $275 Friday.) Now First Solar, which makes “thin film” solar modules, is getting into the utility business, winning approval Thursday from California regulators to build the state’s first thin-film photovoltaic solar power plant. The 7.5 megawatt project - expandable to 21 megawatts - will sell electricity to Southern California Edison (EIX) under a 20-year contract.

While First Solar (FSLR) supplies solar modules to power plant builders in Europe, this is apparently the first time it has acted as a utility-scale solar developer itself. First Solar tends to keep quiet about its projects and did not return a request for comment. But a troll through the public records reveals some details of what is called the FSE Blythe project. The solar farm will be built in the Mojave Desert town of Blythe by a First Solar subsidiary, First Solar Electric. The company paid $350,000 in January for 120 acres of agricultural land in Blythe, providing a tidy profit for the seller, which had purchased the property for $60,000 in June 1999.

Approval of the contract by the California Public Utilities Commission Thursday came on the same day that SunPower (SPWR) announced a deal to build two photovoltaic power plants - a 25-megawatt one and a 10-megawatt version - in Florida for utility Florida Power & Light (FPL). PV plants are essentially supersized versions of rooftop solar panel systems found on homes and businesses. Thin-film solar prints solar cells on flexible material or glass and typically uses little or no expensive (and in short supply) polysilicon, the key material of conventional solar cells.

Most large-scale solar power plants being developed in the United States use solar thermal technology that relies on huge arrays of mirrors to heat liquids to create steam that drives electricity-generating turbines. In fact, there is a solar land rush underway in the desert Southwest as solar developers, investment banks like Goldman Sachs (GS), utilities and speculators of every stripe scramble to lock up hundreds of thousands of acres of federal land for solar power plants. (See Green Wombat’s feature story on the solar land rush in the July 21 issue of Fortune.)

PV power plants, on the other hand, have not been cost-competitive with solar thermal and have been most popular in countries like Germany, Spain and Portugal, where generous subsidies guarantee solar developers a high rate for the electricity they produce. The situation in the U.S. seems to be changing, though, judging by the deals utilties are striking with companies like First Solar and SunPower. Meanwhile, thin-film startup OptiSolar is moving to build a gigantic 550-megawatt thin-film solar power plant on California’s central coast but has yet to sign a power purchase agreement with a utility.

[meinolf67]

das wären dann schon 45MW je Linie...:


First Solar: Kapazität des Frankfurter Werks deutlich erhöht

Frankfurt (Oder) (ddp-lbg). Das Frankfurter Werk der US-Firma
First Solar ist nach Unternehmensangaben auf Erfolgskurs. »Wir haben
die Kapazität unserer Fabrik von geplanten 100 Megawatt auf 180
Megawatt steigern können”, erklärte Werksleiter Burghard von
Westerholt am Freitag. Vor genau einem Jahr hatte
Bundesumweltminister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) die für rund 115 Millionen
Euro errichtete Fabrik zur Herstellung von Dünnschicht-Solarmodulen
offiziell eingeweiht.

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten sei seither auf mehr als 500 gewachsen,
heißt es weiter. Zudem sei bei First Solar die den Angaben zufolge
erste Dünnschicht-Recyclinganlage in Europa in Betrieb genommen
worden, in der sowohl der Produktionsabfall als auch Module, die das
Ende ihrer Nutzungsdauer erreicht haben, recycelt würden.

«Das vergangene Jahr hat gezeigt, dass First Solar die richtige
Standortwahl getroffen hat», sagte Westerholt. Das Unternehmen leiste
einen wichtigen Beitrag zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung der Region
Frankfurt (Oder). Im Gegenzug profitiere das Unternehmen von den
talentierten Arbeitskräften aus Ostbrandenburg.

Das Werk ist eine von drei Solarinvestitionen in Frankfurt (Oder).
Die Hamburger Conergy AG hat in der ehemaligen Chipfabrikhalle eine
Produktionsstätte für Solarmodule errichtet. Im April 2007 hatte
zudem die Frankfurter Odersun AG mit der Produktion flexibler
Dünnschicht-Solarzellen begonnen.

[unioner68]

aber 5 MW sind ja bekanntlich nur Peanuts

http://www.bild.de/BILD/berlin/aktuell/2008/07/05/groesstes-…


Brandenburg baut Europas größtes Solarkraftwerk
Von MICHAEL SAUERBIER

Peitz – Sauberer Strom ganz ohne Klimagas. Auf dem früheren Truppenübungsplatz Lieberose (Spree-Neiße) wird der Traum jetzt wahr. Gestern begann der Bau von Europas größtem Solarkraftwerk.

Auf 150 Hektar Heideland werden 662 000 (!) Solarmodule aufgestellt. Kosten: 160 Millionen Euro, investiert von der Cottbuser Solar Projekt GmbH. Geschäftsführer Michael Lindner: „Damit erzeugen wir 50 Megawatt Strom – genug für 16 000 Haushalte.“

Doch die Anlage liefert nicht nur sauberen Strom. Sie schafft auch Arbeitsplätze: Die Module werden bei First Solar in Frankfurt (Oder) hergestellt. Die Grundstoffe kommen aus Eisenhüttenstadt. Umweltminister Dietmar Woidke (46, SPD) freut sich: „Mit einem Teil des Gewinns der Anlage werden die Kosten für die Munitionsentsorgung auf dem Ex-Schießplatz finanziert – rund 4 Millionen Euro.“

Schade: Eigentlich könnte das Sonnenkraftwerk jährlich 30 000 Tonnen klimaschädliches Kohlendioxid einsparen.

Wird es aber nicht. Denn in Sichtweite der Anlage erzeugt das Braunkohle-Kraftwerk Jänschwalde weiter 27 Millionen Tonnen CO2.

[unioner68]

http://www.ecoreporter.de
juwi solar GmbH baut fünf Megawatt Solarkraftwerk

Die juwi solar GmbH aus dem hessischen Wörrstadt hat in unmittelbarer Nähe zu ihrer Firmenzentrale mit dem Bau eines neuen Solarkraftwerks begonnen. Das Kraftwerk mit fünf Megawatt Leistung wird laut juwi das größte im Südwesten Deutschlands. Es sollen Dünnschichtmodule des US-Herstellers First Solar zum Einsatz kommen.

[meinolf67]

June 30, 2008, 11:31 am
First Solar Raised to Buy at Collins Stewart; Sees Higher Production in 2010 and New Service Revenue
Posted by Tiernan Ray

Solar-panel maker First Solar (FSLR) should be able to reach grid parity in time to offset the effect of a possible decline in subsidies from governments, writes Collins Stewart analyst Daniel Ries in a note to clients this morning. Ries has raised his rating on the stock to “Buy” from “Hold.” Despite risks that subsidies will subside in 2009, writes Ries, “First Solar can hit lower price points if they are needed to drive demand as feed-in tariffs are reduced.” Calling First Solar “providers of the lowest cost solution on the market,” Ries goes on to say the company’s prospects for selling to utilities in both the U.S. and Europe countries have improved.

Ries thinks the construction of a plan in Malaysia, currently “progressing well,” is just one factor that may boost production significantly starting late next year. That would, presumably, further help the company cut costs by producing panels in greater volume. Writes Ries: “First Solar has not clarified its CY10 capacity expansion plans at this time, but we believe the company will continue to build facilities at a steady pace even after its 16 line Malaysia expansion is complete in late-2009, particularly if additional contacts are announced in the months ahead.” First Solar could also have some additional revenue from the cost to install panels, suggests Ries.

As a result, Ries’s estimates for 2009 rise from $2.077 billion in sales and $7 a share in profit, to $2.174 in sales and $7.24. He thinks the stock is worth $320, or 32x the $9.93 per share in profit, excluding some costs, that he projects for calendar 2010. Ries mentions a few caveats, including the company’s dependence on the mineral Telerium for its production, which is scarce; the prospect government subsidies will dry up before First Solar can be cost-competitive without subsidies, and the presence of start-ups that are trying to go head-to-head with First Solar in thin-film technology.

First Solar shares today are up $5, or 1.91%, at $271.45.