Stans Energy / ARMZ Lithiumprojekt in Russland (Seite 156)

[doppio]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.188.744 von Rhingio am 09.10.11 12:11:49

rhingio,

unter replacement wäre also so etwas wie zeitwert zu verstehen ? dann sollten die instandsetzungskosten ja deutlich darunter liegen. - umso besser.

von daher verstehe ich nicht, warum du korrektur im plural verwendest.

das mit FS bis ende des jahres war ja schon bekannt...

ich wollte nur einige punkte festhalten, die so (noch) nicht nachzulesen sind.
gr. doppio

[Rhingio]

ein paar anmerkungen und korrekturen meinerseits zu deiner zusammenfassung

Zitat von doppio: ich fasse mal ein paar pkte zusammen, die ich im video aufgeschnappt habe:

- ree stockpiles für ein jahr prod. liegen vor
heißt ein jahr kein direktes mining nötig

- 2 von 4 500m bohrungen zur klärung der pot. tiefe der mineralisierung von kutessay II sind fertig; 1. ergebnisse ca. in 1 monat (ggf. jorc erweiterung)
- für kcmp 'renovierung' sind ca. 150-200m$ veranschlagt (wir erinnern uns vorhandnes inventar überwiegend aus edelstahl/titan..)
hier sind nicht die kosten für die renovierung gemeint, sondern die wiederbeschaffungskosten (replacement), die kosten für das wieder in gangsetzen werden mit der machbarkeitststudie veröffentlicht werden

- BFS bis ca. sommer 2012 (inkl. be förderung)
erste machbarkeitsstudie (FS) schon ende des jahres fertig, wo das be deposit auch inkludiert ist meines wissens

- ziel 1500t/a (nur ree soweit ich verstehe..) --> 500m$/a value (=gewinn ?)
ja, er spricht hier von 500 mil. cash flow

- für das be will man mit einigen wenigen typ. abnehmern verhandeln (u.a. china - is klar..)
Brush Wellman (Materion)in den USA und Kazatomprom werden erwähnt

- produktion wäre innerhalb von zwei jahren denkbar

- die einzigen, die sonst noch außerhalb china eine metallurgie 'stehen'
haben, sei gwg (in einem früheren interview wurde alkane pos. erwähnt)
er sagt hier, dass die meisten ree im endeffekt nur auf wertlosen steinen sitzen, da sie diese nicht verarbeiten können

- zum vergleich: die russen haben angebl. insges. 11 jahre gebraucht für den prozeß

wichtig, dass mackay letzten freitag (7 okt.) noch nach kirgisistan geflogen ist, bereits zum 4. treffen hintereinander mit demselben möglichen partner/investor

außerdem ist stans gemeinsam mit rosatom auf der suche nach anderen möglichen ree projekten in der ehemaligen sowjetunion, aus über 300 kam man auf eine potentielle liste von 50 projekten und nun sind sie an einem davon stark interessiert und möchten es möglicherweise auch kaufen

[doppio]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.187.369 von 4now am 08.10.11 12:21:27

daaanke 4now !
stammt offensichtlich von Objective Capital's Global Mining Investment Conference am 27/28.09.2011
am 28.09. ging der kurs dann schon mal bis 0,47; dann der upload des videos am 4.10. - ergebnis in den folgenden 2 tagen ein anstieg bis auf 0,57.

da demnächst sicher KE's anstehen, sollten die besser öfter PR-mäßig was reißen
ein newsletter auf der homepage wäre sicher auch eine gute idee...

ich fasse mal ein paar pkte zusammen, die ich im video aufgeschnappt habe:

- ree stockpiles für ein jahr prod. liegen vor
- 2 von 4 500m bohrungen zur klärung der pot. tiefe der mineralisierung von kutessay II sind fertig; 1. ergebnisse ca. in 1 monat (ggf. jorc erweiterung)
- für kcmp 'renovierung' sind ca. 150-200m$ veranschlagt (wir erinnern uns vorhandnes inventar überwiegend aus edelstahl/titan..)
- BFS bis ca. sommer 2012 (inkl. be förderung)
- ziel 1500t/a (nur ree soweit ich verstehe..) --> 500m$/a value (=gewinn ?)
- für das be will man mit einigen wenigen typ. abnehmern verhandeln (u.a. china - is klar..)
- produktion wäre innerhalb von zwei jahren denkbar
- die einzigen, die sonst noch außerhalb china eine metallurgie 'stehen' haben, sei gwg (in einem früheren interview wurde alkane pos. erwähnt)
- zum vergleich: die russen haben angebl. insges. 11 jahre gebraucht für den prozeß

wenn der ganze laden kein fake ist,

[4now]

http://www.viddler.com/explore/objectivecapita/videos/203/?s…

[doppio]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.186.279 von Rhingio am 07.10.11 21:13:58

ja, das ist genau der wert unter den ich dachte daß es nicht fallen würde.
aber ohne übertreibungen geht an der börse wohl nichts..

[Rhingio]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.186.128 von doppio am 07.10.11 20:33:55

tippe mal stark drauf, dass wir bald news sehen
sonst lassen sich die letzten tage nur schwer erklären, besonders im bezug auf die restlichen REE werte
heute wurde der langfristige abwärtstrend endgültig gebrochen, nun werden die kaufsignale folgen

hoffe mal dass sich das warten gelohnt hat

[doppio]

hallo,
weiß jemand was geht ? news ?
20% sind schließlich kein pappenstiel... rebound ?

[Rhingio]

neues von byron king zum REE sektor
bestätigt seine positive haltung zu stans

Thursday, September 22, 2011
Byron King's "Rare Earth Shares Tumble -- What You Ought to Know"

Lot's of calls today, emails with adjectives that are unpleasant as people deal with their stock portfolios declining due to market conditions. This is the reason we created www.CurrencyCountdown.com...

Special thanks to Byron King who has authorized a reprint of his Energy & Scarcity Investor piece today (click here) titled Rare Earth Shares Tumble -- What You Ought to Know.

EXCERPT: "In Monday's note, I commented on the rare earth investment space. Here's exactly what I said about Molycorp, a former holding in the ESI portfolio:

Over the past couple of months, former ESI holding Molycorp has been gyrating within the $50-60 range -- as if awaiting its Waterloo. Well, last week, Molycorp's deal with Japanese giant Sumitomo fell through. Looking back, we sold Molycorp out of the ESI portfolio at the right time and booked a nice gain. I don't know where Molycorp will go from here, but my hunch is that there's more downside than upside.

Molycorp Massacre

So what happened? I was just slightly ahead of the news. That is, Molycorp showed the world its downside yesterday. Molycorp stock was utterly routed. To continue the Napoleonic analogy, if yesterday wasn't the defeat at Waterloo for Molycorp, it sure wasn't the victory at Jena, or even the stalemate at Borodino.

Here's what happened. Yesterday an analyst for JP Morgan named Michael Gambardella released a downgrade on Molycorp. The JP Morgan report rated Molycorp as "neutral," based on pricing and demand concerns for future rare earth output.

OK, so how bad is a "neutral" rating? In this case, the effect was like yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater. Market reaction was fierce. Molycorp shares opened down from the previous day's close of $53, dropping like a rock into the mid-$40s. Then the share price drifted down all day to close at about $41. The loss was an overall tumble of 21%, which doubtless made a lot of short sellers very happy.

The market makers earned their pay as well as the day wore on. Molycorp's trading volume was well over 25 million shares yesterday, about five times the daily average, indicating that over a billion dollars worth of shares changed hands. The trading trend was down, down, down all day, uninterrupted by even the shadow of a rally. At least it was an orderly crash.

What did the JP Morgan report say? Not as much as you might think, really. The report noted that rare earth prices have fallen since July, which is hardly big news if you follow these things. The report also speculated that non-Chinese demand will fall in the near term, which is also hardly a state secret worthy of WikiLeaks.

The big revelation was that JP Morgan cut its price target for Molycorp shares from the previous $105 per share estimate down to $66. Still, to me at least, that wasn't "news," because I never really expected Molycorp shares to get much above the $60 range. Heck, that's why I recommended that we sell out.

The Molycorp massacre confirms (as if you needed more confirmation) that there's a lot of volatility out there in market-land. We've seen again and again how good news just doesn't seem to help a lot of companies. And bad news? Wow.

Collateral Damage

The blast wave from the Molycorp massacre hit many other shares as well. For example, Australia's Lynas Corp (LYC: ASX), which aims to produce the first rare earths outside of China, fell 17.8% yesterday, to a low of $1.20 in early trades.

Then as the day wore on, Lynas recovered a bit, to $1.25. Still, Lynas is way down from its yearly high of $2.70 in April. Indeed, Lynas was trading above $2 just last month. Still, I'm anxious to see what happens with the new Lynas plant in Malaysia. It's starting to move to production.

Former ESI holding Rare Element Resources also tumbled yesterday, more or less tracking the Molycorp selloff. Rare Element shares traded at $8 as of Monday afternoon and touched $7.10 yesterday, closing at $7.13, to be exact -- a drop of almost 11%. The selloff continues today.

Another rare earth sector favorite, Avalon Rare Metals, dropped yesterday from the $4 range to below $3.40, closing at $3.50 for a haircut of about 12%. Avalon is down from its mid-April high of near $10.

One more rare earth player, Quest Rare Minerals, dropped yesterday from the $3.75 range to $3.30, rallying up at the end of the day to $3.50, for a mild loss of just under 7%. Still, Quest is also down from its late-April high near $9.

Also of interest, Swedish-located Tasman Metals began yesterday by falling from $3 per share, to $2.70, but with a lot of market-maker intervention, it recovered up for the day at $3.18. (Today, however, Tasman is trading down by 20 cents or so.) Tasman is trading at about half of its early-year highs, in the $5.80 range.

The Evolving Alaska Play

Shares of Ucore Rare Metals (UCU: TSX-V), part of the ESI model portfolio, were -- fortunately for us -- shielded a bit from yesterday's overall sector carnage, dropping from 60 to 57 cents, a slight 5% pullback, which is continuing today.

The hit to Ucore is relatively mild. Part of it is that Ucore shares haven't had the really big promotions and run-up of many other rare earth companies. Ucore shares briefly touched $1.27 in March, but have traded in the 60-80 cent range since May.

Right now, it's safe to say that there aren't a lot of momentum investors watching the Ucore share price. There are few itchy trigger fingers ready to hit the sell button. Be thankful for some things, I guess.

Another part of the Ucore story is that many investors apparently just don't understand the company very well. Ucore has a hard-rock, vein-style ore body at Bokan Mountain, on Prince of Wales Island, about 25 miles offshore Ketchikan, Alaska. I visited the site in August.

In my view, Ucore doesn't lend itself to the same kind of "ore grade" analysis and comparison as other companies with different ore bodies. That is, a lot of people think that the vein-type hosting style will make it difficult and expensive for Ucore to mine and process rare earth ores. Actually, having been there, I believe that the Ucore ore is very mineable.

Also, what I like about Ucore is that it offers the basics with no expensive surprises. That is, Bokan Mountain was a uranium mining district from 1955 to 1972 or so. Thus, with a history of mining, it's easier to move the project in today's world -- beginning with the old road grid. It gets back to that saying that the best place to build a mine is next to another mine.

Bokan Mountain -- the former uranium mine -- is more likely to get permitting, faster, than some of the new-build, greenfield sites. Furthermore, I've seen how easy it is to move ore from the Bokan Mountain site to the water's edge. Ucore can haul ore down a mountainside (using the free and easy "gravity assist") and then load the ore onto a boat -- destined either a plant to be built in Alaska or elsewhere in the U.S. or Canada or somewhere else.

Bokan Mountain is part of the Tongass National Forest, and there's no nearby human habitation. It means that Bokan Mountain has no "First Nation" kinds of problems. The nearest habitation is across the water in Ketchikan, where the locals seem pretty friendly toward mine development.

The next big step for Ucore is to deliver a metallurgical report. What's the chemistry and engineering necessary to turn Bokan Mountain's ore into a saleable end product? Right now, Ucore has its consultants at Denver-based Hazen Engineering working on the project. The report is not yet released, so I'll defer comment.

As I said the other day, Molycorp has more downside than upside. My view is that Ucore has more upside than downside. There's still a lot of good news from Ucore that has yet to trickle out into the market consciousness. Don't let the Molycorp massacre scare you away from this one.

The Russian Play

Shares of our other ESI rare earth company Stans Energy (HRE: TSX-V) barely budged yesterday. The share price held firm in the low 70-cent range, until the end of the day, when a couple of large sell orders hit to take Stans down to exactly 70 cents. This morning, a few more large sell orders came through, taking the shares down another nickel or so.

People are going to do what they're going to do. Somebody is selling. But as I've said numerous times before, there's NOTHING wrong with the Stans business model. The company is cashed up. The relationships with the Russians are strong and getting better. The metallurgy is already done, dating back to Soviet days, and now it's just a question of tweaking things to catch up with modern industrial processes.

Things are working out fine in Kyrgyzstan. The mine is real. The plant structure is fine. The equipment in Area 51 is almost ready to reinstall.

Meanwhile, Stans management is hard to find because these guys are traveling so much -- and I assure you that they're not on vacation! When I was in Russia and Kyrgyzstan, I saw how hard Stans management works at putting together the right kind of project team.

It's safe to say that there's no "final" deal with Stans and its future partners -- not that they tell me these things ahead of time. But if you follow the rare earth space, you know that there are but a handful of potential partners out there. If you're familiar with the rare earth space, you'd know the names.

In my view, if you just throw darts at a board with a list of those names -- of the rare earth players who could become partners with Stans -- and if you hit three or so of them, you'd have a world-class project no matter which companies you get. I'm very excited to see what comes out of all of this -- and I truly believe it'll be great.

Summary

I'll end here. My final comment is that Lynas, Ucore and Stans are all in ESI for darned good reasons. If other people want to sell their shares into a down market, my view is to buy. A year from now, we'll look back and smile.

I'm working on four (yes, four!) new ESI investment ideas, as well. You should see them next week.

Meanwhile, have a good rest of the week. Thanks for reading.

Best wishes...Byron W. King"

http://www.raremetalblog.com/2011/09/byron-kings-rare-earth-…

[doppio]

auch nicht uninteressant: Luftgekühlte Uranbrennstäbe dank Beryllium...
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/beryllium-still-sexy/2011/0…

[doppio]

was'n los hier ?
alle in schockstarre verfallen, weil der kurs abgeschmiert is ?
in letzter zeit sind die basket preise ja etwas gefallen.
heute mal auf der lynas seite geguckt:
Dysprosium, Terbium, Europium alle seit Q2/2011 mal schlank mehr als verdoppelt...
ich denke die tendenz wird bei hree so bleiben, vor allem wo es in mode gekommen ist sich spekulativ physisch einzudecken.
also alles in i.O. würde ich sagen. laßt die shorter mit sich selbst spielen. der rebound wird kommen.
gr. doppio