Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 12)

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.554.574 von Kody1974 am 26.03.23 10:57:15

die Aktien-Kurse in den USA (+ Kanada) sind bereits abgeschmiert für die "Median-Aktie", hier der $VALUG (Value Line Geometric Index) im Vergleich zum $QQQ und Spyder (S&P 500):



=> alle Gewinner seit Anfang 2023 wieder rasiert


der NASDAQ100-nahe $QQQ-ETF steht deshalb vergleichsweise oben, weil ein Teil des Cash in die "Sicherheit" der dominanten "Big 5" (Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft) geflossen ist:

• hier der NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF $QQQE im Vergleich zum $QQQ-ETF (Gewichtung nach Marktkapitalisierung):

[Kody1974]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.546.852 von faultcode am 24.03.23 13:20:01

Zitat von faultcode:


24.3.
BofA Says Investor Rush to Cash Is Fastest Since Covid Hit
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-hartnett-sees-greedy-sto…
...
Investors are fleeing to cash in the biggest rush since the onset of the pandemic as concerns of an economic slowdown mount, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists who see equity and credit markets slumping in coming months.

“Credit and stock markets too greedy for rate cuts, not fearful enough of recession,” a team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on dated Thursday. The strategist, who was correctly bearish through last year, said investment-grade spreads and stocks will be taking a hit over the next three to six months.
...

Wenn aktuell tatsächlich eine so große Flucht in Cash stattfindet wie vor 3 Jahren, warum schmieren dann die Kurse nicht genauso ab?

[faultcode]

die USA haben nun möglicherweise auch ein Politproblem während der laufenden Bankenkrise:

24.3.
White House worried over Janet Yellen’s fumbling of US bank crisis: sources
https://nypost.com/2023/03/24/white-house-worried-over-janet…
...
Janet Yellen is once again on thin ice inside the Biden Administration over her bungling of the banking crisis that keeps roiling markets, The Post has learned.

The question is when will Sleepy Joe & Co. finally act? They need to put Yellen out of her misery and end ours by handing her job to someone who knows how to deal with the very real possibility of banks failing on a scale not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and a possible deep recession.

As we have reported, the political types in the White House — the people that craft messaging and give input on cabinet choices — have been increasingly wary of Yellen’s ability to do the job despite her expansive resume and years running the Fed, people with direct knowledge tell the Post.

They grew sour over her bungled response to inflation (recall how she said it was transitory as it was exploding). It’s why they floated possible replacements last year, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America. Both are seen as policy heavyweights. Unlike Yellen, they have real-world business experience (Yellen’s been in academia and government throughout her career).

Yet she survived that attempt to get her removed because her ultimate boss, the president, didn’t want to fire a woman in such a high-profile post, these people say. Sleepy Joe might not have much choice now given the growing severity of what she and the country are facing: The collapse of large regional banks Silicon Valley and Signature banks.
...

Yellen’s response to this has been bewildering from a messaging standpoint. White House advisers are pointing to her multiple flip-flops on whether the government will back up all deposits in a failed bank — even those well past the FDIC insurance threshold of $250,000. I get it, she doesn’t want people to pull money out of regional banks at just the hint of weakness, but what she is saying lacks credulity. Will the federal government or the underfunded FDIC insurance fund really cover a deposit of more than a million dollars?

Another criticism: Her slow-walking the possible severity of weakness in the plumbing of banks as failures begin to pile up. She says the system is safe and secure, but it’s obviously not. Years of historical and super-low interest rates distort asset values and risk-taking, and banks can’t be immune from the consequences.

“On one hand they’re kind of stuck with her; it would be bad to get rid of a Treasury Secretary during a banking crisis,” said one of my sources, who works at a large DC-based think-tank and has heard the griping firsthand. “On the other hand, they know they don’t have anyone good to be their face in terms of a response.”

Yellen clearly has heard the criticism. On Friday, she called an emergency meeting of top bank regulators to discuss the expanding crisis. The agenda will likely include not just past bank collapses, but the impasse over First Republic’s fate – bankers are trying, so far in vain, to save the institution from being the latest domino to fall in the regional bank mess.
...

[faultcode]

24.3.
BofA Says Investor Rush to Cash Is Fastest Since Covid Hit
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-hartnett-sees-greedy-sto…
...
Investors are fleeing to cash in the biggest rush since the onset of the pandemic as concerns of an economic slowdown mount, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists who see equity and credit markets slumping in coming months.

“Credit and stock markets too greedy for rate cuts, not fearful enough of recession,” a team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on dated Thursday. The strategist, who was correctly bearish through last year, said investment-grade spreads and stocks will be taking a hit over the next three to six months.
...

[faultcode]

23.3.
American Households Likely to Sell $750 Billion in Stocks, Goldman Sachs Estimates
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-households-likely-se…
...
American households will sell $750 billion of stocks this year in the first annual drop in demand since 2018, thanks to higher bond yields and lower savings, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists say.

Marking an end to years of belief in TINA — that there’s no alternative to equities — households will instead boost allocation to credit and money-market assets, the team led by Cormac Conners wrote in a note.

US households have been key buyers of stocks through the era of ultra-loose monetary policy seen since the global financial crisis. That trend saw a “significant slowdown” last year as the Federal Reserve began tightening, although households still directly owned 38% of the total US equity market, Conners said citing Fed data.

This year, “even if the recent decline in market yields persists or deepens through year-end, households would still be net sellers of stocks,” he wrote in a March 22 note.

Investors have piled into bets of higher-for-longer rates in the US this year as the Fed attempts to rein in surging inflation, driving up bond yields and fueling volatility in the stock market.

US equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds have seen withdrawals of $51 billion this year, while bond funds have received $137 billion, according to Goldman citing high-frequency flow data.
...

[faultcode]

Federal Reserve raises interest rates another 0.25% to highest since October 2007
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rate…

=>




=> das ist wohl so eine Kompromiss-Lösung bis zum nächsten Meeting am 2.-3. Mai: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.…

[faultcode]

den $RCL-KO-Put habe ich nun auch verkauft bei $RCL bei ~USD61

Am Mittwoch könnte es doch zu einem wie immer gearteten "FED-Pivot" kommen (FED-Schwenk) und sei es nur in Form einer nur +0.25%-Zinserhöhung mit anschließendem Kurs-Feuerwerk bei den zinsbelasteten Trash-Werten:

=> lieber (vorerst) den Spatz in der Hand als die Taube auf dem Dach:




Wobei ein "FED-Pivot" mMn schon ein recht deutlicher Indikator Richtung US-Rezession wäre.

[faultcode]

21.3.
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-fear-trillion-doll…
...
For trillion-dollar investment groups Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management, the accelerating financial instability seen in Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank are cues to speed up preparations.

They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets.

“If you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. “It’s very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes it’s just days.”

That imperative has large investors bulking up on longer-dated bonds, eying big losers of the past year like tech stocks and selectively buying riskier assets like private credit.
...

Invesco, which oversees $1.4 trillion in assets, anticipates the Fed will pause in the coming months before pivoting to an easing cycle later this year, triggering an equity market rally.

“If the downturn to the economy occurs in the back half of 2023, the stock market will be looking out to a recovery in 2024,” said Kristina Hooper, the fund manager’s chief global market strategist. “Tech names react very well to yields going down, which is a positive overall for equities.”

Invesco will look to an overweight position in cyclical stocks and small-caps when signs of a Fed pivot become clearer, and to drop its cautious footing in large-caps and defensive sectors, like utilities and consumer staples. Traders in futures based on the Federal Reserve’s funds rate are already positioning for cuts to borrowing costs in the second half of this year.

Stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios in developed markets like Europe, the UK and Australia offer attractive opportunities, according to Rob Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates LLC.

“I would have risk exposure in non-US markets both developed and emerging,” he said. He points to UK stocks, which trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 compared to almost 18 for the S&P 500, as a mismatch in valuations investors could exploit.

Franklin Templeton is preparing to shift from an underweight to neutral holding of stocks to avoid missing out on the early stages of a rally.

Data from JPMorgan show that investors who were absent for the S&P 500’s 10 best days in the two decades through 2022 received half the gains of those who were in the market for the entire period.
...

[faultcode]

Uuups:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/mone…


...

[Marktstratege]

So wie sich der Crash ausweitet, vermute ich, da werden wohl bald noch weitere Bankenpleiten bekanntgegeben, dass zusammen mit, Krieg , stark steigenden Zinsen, Inflation usw..könnte die Indeces halbieren, oder??