Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 5)

[gimo211]

... Auch von mir allem AOI'ler noch eine schöne Weihnachtszeit und das uns nächstes Jahr zu Weihnachten, alle um unseren frühen Einstieg bei AOI beneiden werden...

2013 - das Jahr von Africa Oil Corp.

[Mea_Culpa35]

So schließe ich mich meinem Vorgänger an und wünsche ebenfalls einige besinnliche Tage,
sowie viel Kraft und Nerven in 2013 bei event. Kursen unter 5 CAD. (wobei ich diese Kurse niemanden wünsche)

Vielleicht erbarmt sich in 2013 ein Major den Laden für 7 oder 8 CAD zu übernehmen,
denn ein no-brainer ist dieses Invest in keinem Fall...

Anbei nochmal ein (imo) guter Artikel, welcher vor einem Monat von vielen (auch ich habe ihn belächelt) verspottet wurde.
(siehe untere comments)


How Close is the Africa Oil Bubble to Bursting?

By Nathan Kirykos - November 23, 2012 28 Comments

Nathan is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Introduction

The investors often propel some companies' valuation at high levels making them a bubble. I like identifying and exposing these bubbles before they implode. The greed isn't a wise investment strategy. Many people are driven by greed and they want a bubble to go higher as they have a biased perception of reality. Once the implosion occurs, they recognize their mistake but it is too late. So I'll analyze the case of Africa Oil Corporation (TSXV: AOI). Is it a result of people's greed or ignorance?

Operations Overview

Africa Oil is a Canadian energy company with assets in Kenya, Ethiopia, Mali and Somalia through its 45% stake in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East African holdings are in excess of 300,000 square kilometers. The company doesn't have any production today and it is in a multi-well drilling campaign in Kenya and Ethiopia during the last months.

Corporate Developments
The company found oil with the first hit in March 2012. The initial successful results from Ngamia-1 well (AOI 50% WI, Tullow 50% WI) in Kenya encountered over 100 meters of net light oil in the Upper Lokhone Sand Section that grew during the next months finding an additional 43 meters of potential oil in the Lower Lokhone Sandstone Section. This was the first oil discovery in Kenya and this boosted the share price by more than 500%. However Tullow, Africa Oil's partner, indicated it would be at least a year before it knows whether its March discovery (Ngamia-1 well) can be extracted and exported.

The next well of Africa Oil, Twiga South-1, was drilled in September and it represents the next step in expanding the play and proving up the 'string of pearls' concept. The company said recently that it encountered oil but no further details have been provided yet so the commercial viability of this discovery has yet to be ascertained.

The company will continuously drill high impact exploration targets for the remainder of 2012. In onshore Kenya, the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A, was drilled in October and the market still awaits for the results. In onshore Ethiopia, the exploration drilling campaign will commence with the Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block before year end.

Regarding Somalia, the first 2 wells drilled by Horn Petroleum (45% owned by Africa Oil) didn't find oil.

Valuation

Africa Oil Corp trades with a price to book value of 9.3. The company has zero production so it has zero revenue and thus negative funds from operations. The company holds $55 million cash but the drilling cost in Kenya is about $15-20 million per well. The company also announced an increase at its reserves in Aug 2012. However they are Prospective reserves and they aren't Proven and Probable Reserves (2P). Prospective reserves means that there is no certainty that any portion of the Prospective Resources will be discovered. If discovered, there isn't certainty that the discovery will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.

Some holders will debate that Africa Oil has a big acreage and new discoveries have been announced on all sides of Africa Oil's land position including the major Albert Graben oil discovery in neighboring Uganda. I'll comment that it's widely known in the oil & gas universe that you and I could be neighbors and you are sitting on 1 billion barrels recoverable and I have goat pasture. So this acreage statement lacks punch.

Insiders

According to regulatory filings, the insiders have been selling since July 2012. I accept that the insiders sell for many reasons. The insiders also buy only for one reason and I havn't seen any of them buy since the share price has jumped to the current levels.

Geopolitical risks

The geopolitical risks of Africa are well known. The social unrest, the political turmoil, the civil wars, the pirates attack, the lack of infrastructure are usual. "No matter where you are in the world, where there's no infrastructure and no history of the oil business, it will take at least half a dozen years to go from exploration phase to development concepts," Tim O'Hanlon, Tullow's vice president for Africa, told Reuters.

In Uganda, the pipeline to get the oil to the coast for export will not be in place before 2018 at the earliest. In Kenya, the Government has already started to complain about its current 10% stake and they want a 25% share although the country has not found any commercially viable oil source yet. Tullow indicated it would be at least a year before it knows whether its March discovery with Africa Oil (Ngamia-1 well) can be extracted and exported.


Conclusion

I believe Africa Oil Corporation's current market cap defies any logic and I can't find any rationale behind it. I think long investors had better stay away from Africa Oil as there are significant downside risks. Speculative investors should consider a short position capitalizing on the asymmetric risk/reward proposition at these unsustainable levels. A sharp revaluation to the downside may be coming.

http://beta.fool.com/traderinvestor70/2012/11/23/how-close-a…

(Es würde mich stark verwundern, wenn es bei 25% Regierungsanteil bleiben sollte. Eher 50%, sobald der erste Tropfen Richtung Küste fließt.)

[gabbo62]

2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays


by Jen Alic

|
OilPrice.com
|
Tuesday, December 25, 2012


2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.

We're looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:

Turkana County, Kenya

We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.

In March, the UK's Tullow Oil and Canada's Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.

The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They're still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.

The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.

In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.

While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.

Bakken, North Dakota

The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the US for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the US has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn't seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.

Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewa and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken Shale Play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Geological Survey. That's the modest estimate. Continental Resources—one of the major Bakken players—estimates as much as 40 billion barrels.

The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn't really been tapped at all.

Eagle Ford, South Texas

Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It's one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).

Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.

So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It's already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).

The biggest producer is EOG Resources, putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.

Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.

Mediterranean Plays

The Levant Basin in the Mediterranean has an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and around 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And the area has seen a flurry of activity recently.

Between 25 and 33 billion cubic feet of this gas is in Israeli waters. The rest is carved up between Greek-held Northern Cyprus (which is a bit problematic), Syria and Lebanon.
Of course, along with this potential comes some uncomfortable geopolitics; on one hand among Israel, Lebanon and Syria; on the other hand between Israel, Turkey and the Greek Cypriots.

The first new natural gas field in the region is expected to begin full-scale production this year, with two additional fields coming on-line over the next six years.

Specifically, we're talking about:
•The discovery to two offshore natural gas fields in northern Israel (Leviathan and Tamar) with an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet (about 100 years year of gas for Israeli domestic use)
•Estimates that Israel has a potential 1.9 billion barrels of untapped oil
•About 5-6 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field claimed by Greek-held Northern Cyprus (just west of Israel's Leviathan field)

Exploitation will be a bit expensive, though. Israel's offshore fields are located 100 kilometers from the coast and in 6,000 feet of water. The natural gas is some 5,000 feet under the sea bed.

Offshore Tanzania & Mozambique

Tanzania has become a gas sensation in a very short time, with recent offshore discoveries of some 33 trillion cubic feet.
Sweetening the deal, we have political stability and low security risk, relatively speaking, as well as an existing 70-million-cubic-feet/day capacity for natural gas processing. More gas infrastructure is in the works.

Next door, Mozambique's 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in its offshore Rovuma Basin is eye candy for foreign investors, and officials believe there is double this amount still waiting to be discovered. It's not as attractive as Tanzania for one reason: There is no infrastructure.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=122948

[Mea_Culpa35]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.959.794 von gabbo62 am 25.12.12 17:07:10

While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable...

[x_trader]

Der slow stochastic ist wieder mal am Scheitelpunkt.
Was das zu 90% bedeutet, ist ja jedem Trader bekannt.
Schaun wir mal, was AOI draus macht.

[Kimbel]

Hallo zusammen!

Demnächst (Januar) werden die nächsten Bohrergebnisse aus Kenia und Äthiopien erwartet. Kann mir jemand sagen, wie lange es dauert bis Africa Oil die ersten Umsätze mit verkauftem Öl machen wird? Kann man hierzu schon eine zeitliche Abschätzung abgeben?

Beste Grüße

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.962.121 von Kimbel am 27.12.12 14:27:00

Man geht von circa 5 Jahren bis zum Produktionsstart aus. Das wäre wesentlich schneller als in Uganda, wo Tullow schon in 2006 Öldiscoveries bohrte. Spielt aber auch keine Rolle, weil Africa Oil wahrscheinlich nicht das Unternehmen wird, das Öl fördert und verkauft. Bis dahin ist das Unternehmen meiner Meinung nach an einen Major verkauft. Machen die Lundins immer so.

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.961.447 von x_trader am 27.12.12 10:48:48

Hallo X-Trader,
ich verwende einen anderen Slow STO mit %K(14),%D(3) und der sieht etwas anders aus als Deiner. ( Es ist mein Favorit:kiss
Hier laufen wir fast parallel nach oben und befinden uns erst bei 57,55% zu 52,91%. Also haben wir noch viel Luft nach oben.
MACD ist nun auch im grünen Bereich.
RSI ist bei 39,01% und somit auch im grünen Bereich und noch viel Luft nach oben.
Interessant wirds nun beim SAR. Hier muß die Marke von 7,24 CAN$ getroffen werden.Dann geht so richtig die Post ab
Das GAP bis 7,50 CAN$ haben wir dieses Jahr leider nicht geschlossen, aber ich denke das sich das Anfang 2013 sehr schnell erledigen wird
Wer wie ich zugekauft hat, kann sich schon jetzt über einen guten Gewinn freuen und es wird noch weiter gehen.
Im Nachhinein wird sich der Zukauf bei 5,03€ als einmaliger Glücksfall herausstellen. Wie schnell das gehen kann hat man ja schon ende Juni sehen können. Da lief der Kurs in 5 Tagen von 6,5 CAN$ bis auf über 10 CAN$.
Bei einer guten Meldung können wir dies in 2013 bei weiten noch toppen
So dann verabschiede ich mich mal für dieses Jahr und wünsche allen aoi Investierten einen guten Rutsch ins Jahr 2013.
Niki

[gabbo62]

Kenya: Oil Expectations Rise in 2013
By Solomon Kirimi, 28 December 2012

Kenya has no confirmed oil deposits yet but the year 2012 will remain the best for Kenya's quest to join the league of oil producers.

For a country which a year ago had no reason to think of ever becoming an oil producer, two wells at appraisal stage in Northern Kenya and gas finds at the coast is exciting.

It all started on March 26th of 2012, with the announcement that Ngamia-1 oil well in Lokichar area of Turkana in the Rift Basin had 20 metres of net oil pay.

Tullow Oil made the announcement that the Ngamia-1 exploration well, located in Block 10BB, had then been drilled to a depth of 1,041 metres, within which light waxy crude was discovered.

"This is an excellent start to our major exploration campaign in the East African rift basins and to make a good oil discovery in our first well is beyond our expectations and bodes well for the material programme ahead of us," said Tullow Exploration Director Angus McCoss, We look forward to further success as seismic and drilling activities continue to gather pace."

Two months later the Ngamia-1 well encountered oil and gas shows over a gross interval of 140 metres from a depth of 1,800 metres to 1,940 metres.

"God can not be so unfair to give our neighbor oil and gas and leave Kenya with nothing," energy minister Kiraitu Murungi said in reference to oil discoveries in Uganda, huge gas deposit find in Tanzania and the already oil producing Sudan.

The discoveries by Tullow suddenly the interest in exploration of in Kenya were revived just over a half a year after being dampened by the exit of Chinese explorer CNOOC from Isiolo in October 2012 after finding just traces of gas.

The Isiolo Boghal-1 well in block 9 well was plugged and abandoned because the gas was deemed to be of no commercial value.

"If the gas was of commercial value, Kenya would have received a lot of interest for exploration blocks," The then discouraged Energy permanent secretary Patrick Nyoike said.

CNOOC had sunk $26 million (Sh2.2 billion) to drill the well to a depth of 5,085 metres and quit before reaching 5,556 metres initial target.

CNOOC partner in the initial venture African Oil have now partnered with Marathon Oil to re-open the well following the successes by Tullow oil up north.

The lucky streak by Tullow oil followed them offshore to Mbawa1 in Lamu basin where 50 metres of net gas pay was found.

Tullow is a minor shareholder in the block L8 with Amerca's Apache corporation, Austalia's Pancontinental. Although the gas find was not of commercial value and was plugged, this increased the appetite for explorers with prospects looking good for presence of oil and gas of the Kenyan coast.

Tullow Oil's good run of results followed them to Twiga South-1 exploration well in Block 13T where in late November they encountered oil, confirming a rush announcement by partners Africa Oil Corp on October 26 2012.

Tullow Oil plc announced that the Twiga South-1 exploration well drilling had encountered 30 metres of net oil pay. A further potential of a gross interval of 796 metres net pay is to be assessed before being declared.

The finds have now moved Kenya from a high risk exploration country to high value target for world majors looking for a piece of the action in a region promising to be latest exploration frontier.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201212281070.html

[gabbo62]

Den Januar-Termin sollten wir uns im Auge behalten:

From the Tullow website:


Date Event Details
11 Jan 2013 Trading statement and operational update Regulatory announcement and conference calls
13 Feb 2013 2012 full year results Regulatory announcement, presentations, webcast and conference calls

[gabbo62]

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Chinese+firm+used+new+technolog…


Chinese firm used new technology to find oil

Secrets of how oil was found in Turkana are now out.

A Chinese company contracted by Tullow Oil to collect data on rock formations and underground properties in Ngamia 1 had the technology to locate the oil deposits.

The Chinese firm hit Ngamia 1 with huge sound bursts and with special listening devises resulting in them being able to point out the most likely oil hotspots.

“Loaded with the information we were ready to go,” said Mr David Sloan, one of the senior technical people at Tullow Kenya during a media tour of the site on Thursday.

“The use of this advanced and expensive technology — 3D seismic shooting — which had not been used in earlier digs made a major difference,” says Mr Martin Haye, a Commissioner for Petroleum Energy at the Ministry of Energy.

According to the Permanent Secretary in the ministry Patrick Nyoike, it costs about $40,000 (Sh3.2 million) to shoot one square kilometre and you cannot do less that 200 square kilometres.

“This find which was announced by the government last month is largely attributed to these advanced data collection technologies,” Mr Nyoike said on Friday in an advertorial.

But deliberate government policies may also have helped in bringing about the Turkana oil find. According to a brief from Tullow Oil, a recent revision of guidelines on investing in the sector made the country attractive for major players with strong financial and technical exploration capabilities.

Such companies, says PS Nyoike include, Anadarko, BG Group, Total, Tullow Oil, Africa Oil and Ophir. Between June and end of next year, Njoike says some five exploratory wells will have been dug.

Indian Ocean

It is not clear from which side Kenyans should expect the next oil news with Mr Haye optimistic that this may be coming soon from planned offshore drilling at the Indian Ocean by the American outfit called Apache.

But Tullow is already preparing to move to another site in Marsabit County at a place called Papai-1. Already, explained Mr David Hawes who is in charge of drilling operations at Ngamia-1, a platform to place a drilling rig is nearing completion at the Marsabit site.

Last week Environment minister Chirau Mwakwere, hinted that the shooting technology which can be delivered either from a ship, land vibrators or from a light plane will be aggressively deployed in future search for minerals.

Mr Mwakwere said his ministry proposed to spend Sh15 billion for an aerial survey to prospect for more minerals. He said mining was the new frontier in the country’s development but resources were needed to fully open up the sector.

Mr Mwakwere said his ministry had tabled a Bill in Parliament to revise the Mining Act, that will also address the mining hours which the National Environmental Management Authority had set at 8am to 5pm while the country was moving towards a 24-hour economy.

The Ngamia 1 well drilling is a 24-hour operation supported by diesel electricity power generators producing over 1500 horse power. It employs about 200 people and according to Mr Martin Nyoro, the Tallow Kenya general manager, getting competent technical people within the country remained a major challenge.

Actual drilling work, says Tullow Kenya, General Manager Mr Martin Nyoro, took about three months before they struck oil, much earlier than they had expected.

But at the site you do not see the oil, not even smell it, not even a whiff of the black gold even while standing at the foot of the rig that rises to about 140 ft. The oil, explained Mr Howes, is not like a lake but more like the sponge used while bathing. “The act of pressing induces the oil to come out.”

[motz1]

@gabbo62: MANY THANKS für die Recherche und die vielen interessanten Beiträge - Dir und allen AOIlern wünsche ich einen guten Start ins Neue Jahr!

Es folgen noch ein paar Fundstücke zu Afrika im Allgemeinen, der Übersichtlichkeit wegen nur mit Headline und ggf. einem kurzen Zitat - bei Interesse einfach reinlesen...

...........................................

Africa: A Story of Growth

Africa's steady and robust economic growth over the past decade has thrust the continent onto the world stage as a serious player. Local economies stagnated in every part of the world during the global recession of 2008 and 2009, but Sub-Saharan Africa was one of the least affected regions due to its relatively weak ties to the crisis epicenters in Europe and the U.S.--and its growth rate has returned to previous heights.
http://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/connections/archive/201…
[Anm.: Viele Statistiken/Graphiken bzgl. u.a. Pro-Kopf-Einkommen, Infrastruktur etc.]
------------------

Five Countries To Watch
By Francis Njubi Nesbitt

In May 2000, The Economist magazine declared that Africa was "the hopeless continent." Eleven years later, in 2011, it referred to Africa as "the hopeful continent." And on October 20, 2012, the magazine stated: "In recent years investors have been piling into Lagos and Nairobi as if they were Frankfurt and Tokyo of old." [...]
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Re…
------------------

Riches In The Ground
By Oliver August

[...]The health of Africa's mining sector is rivaled by the oil and gas industry. The continent is so rich in fossil fuels that only five of Africa's 54 countries do not currently produce or explore for oil.
African oil used to come mostly from the continent's west coast, running southward from Nigeria via Equatorial Guinea down to Angola, which now competes with Saudi Arabia to be China's biggest oil supplier. But the east coast is fast turning into an alternative destination for drillers. Countries such as Kenya and Uganda that were once considered resource-limited now have plans to sink hundreds of wells into the ground. And not just for oil. Recently discovered reserves of natural gas are believed to be equally abundant down the east coast, fueling the area's rise as a potential rival to the Persian Gulf states.[...]
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Re…

[motz1]

Ein zwar etwas langer, wie ich finde aber sehr lesenswerter Artikel:

.................

Oil and gas discoveries make East Africa a rich hunting ground for global explorers

By ZEDDY SAMBU
Posted Monday, December 31 2012 at 18:19


The Ngamia 1 oil exploration rig in Turkana County. East Africa holds great potential for investment opportunities within the oil and gas sector following recent discoveries of the natural resource. file Nation Media Group

In Summary
•As the scrambles for new blocks in Kenya continues, experts believe there is a high probability of a gas find along the East African coastline which shares the same geological formation with some of the gas-rich blocks in Tanzania and Mozambique.
•East Africa is now seen as the “new promised land” or the “next epicentre” for global natural gas, the latest “new frontier. With the recent massive discoveries, it represents the growth engine for Africa’s natural gas sector.
•A report titled Global Race for African Oil says East Africa will soon be the world’s most important energy producer in 2040, during which trillions of dollars will be pumped in in exchange for its natural resources —with most of the money set to come from China.


East Africa’s oil and gas potential has been compared to the gold rush in South Africa —where production of the commodity went from zero in 1886 to 23 per cent of the global supply in just 10 years.

As the scrambles for new blocks in Kenya continues, experts believe there is a high probability of a gas find along the East African coastline which shares the same geological formation with some of the gas-rich blocks in Tanzania and Mozambique.

While interest in Kenya’s exploration blocks has risen since UK firm, Tullow Oil, announced two successful oil-finds in Turkana County within the Tertiary Rift Basin, several multinational oil exploration companies are set to begin bidding for five or more new offshore oil and gas exploration sites in Kenya in the coming weeks.

Ministry of Energy officials have asked the Director of Survey to speed up the mapping of new offshore areas to facilitate the publication of sites and award acreage to prospecting firms.

Officials say it expects five new offshore sites as the country and the East Africa sees a significant increase in exploration in recent years. Oil major Shell already has interests in Tanzania, and the acquisition of Cove would mark the entry by PTTEP of Thailand into Kenya and Mozambique.

The prospects have been mapped in four sedimentary basins—Lamu, Anza , Mandera and the Tertiary Rift .

International firms are expected to negotiate with the government for rights to explore acreage in water depths of between 3,000 and 4,000 metres, quite an expensive undertaking by mainly medium and large-sized firms.

The twin discoveries in Turkana County confirms that there is a working hydrocarbon system in the country and marks the beginning of a long way journey in the oil and gas lifecycle.

The regional gas boom has attracted a long list of players including super majors (ExxonMobil, Total and Royal Dutch Shell), large international E&Ps (Anadarko and BG Group), hybrid IOC/NOCs (Statoil, Petrobras and Galp Energia) and smaller regional specialists (Tullow, Ophir Energy/Dominion, Cove Energy, Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL and Premier Oil).

Kenya’s oil search has attracted more than 23 players since March, among them US giant Anadarko Corp, with the company holding stakes in five blocks off the country’s coast.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp previously known as Algeria’s number one independent producer made significant gas discoveries offshore Mozambique in early 2012 and has branched out into other regions of Africa. Two wells— Kiboko prospect in block L11B and the Kubwa prospect in block L7 will be its first in Kenya. The company is the operator of blocks L7 and L11B, holding 45 per cent of the licences in each.

Meanwhile, Total has a 40 per cent stake, with Cove Energy holding the remainder.

“We are now preparing Anadarko to start drilling in late 2012 or early 2013. I guess next year I’ll be talking about billions of barrels discovered in Kenya,” added Mr Nyoike.

Overall, the Ministry of Energy expects to drill at least a dozen more wells onshore and offshore in the new year as Kenya aims to stake a bigger claim on profits from its natural resources exploration boom. The country is seeking 25 per cent stake in the production activities of oil and gas companies operating here.

Anadarko’s Vice-President for International Exploration, Frank Patterson recently said two three-dimensional surveys have been acquired and have already been processed “two months earlier than expected.”

“Drilling is likely to begin in late 2012/early 2013, dependent on rig availability. The programme is moving quite well,” said Mr Patterson.

“Activity in East Africa will increase significantly as world powers and international integrated oil players jockey for positions via both acquisitions and exploration. Medium-sized companies are asking for these blocks,” said Energy PS Patrick Nyoike.

Industry researchers say the epicentre of the world’s oil and gas reserves is shifting to East Africa from the Middle East.

With stability in the Middle East deteriorating, oil-consumers from these “Arab Spring” countries, including Kenya, continue to consider their options, with the Middle East losing its pole position as an oil producer.

Kenya’s Energy policy makers agree: “We will soon be the new Middle East,” Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi said recently.

A report titled Global Race for African Oil says East African oil, an up-and-coming energy giant, may soon beat Middle Eastern oil in the global markets. The December 2012 report by Casey Research Energy Team examines East Africa’s future role in the race for energy security, supporting geologists that have long been ques­tioning how long Saudi Arabia could maintain production with its aging oil fields and aver­sion to foreign expertise.

It says the region will soon be the world’s most important energy producer in 2040, during which trillions of dollars will be pumped in in exchange for its natural resources —with most of the money set to come from China.

Feeding ground
“In the space of a few years, East Africa has become a feeding ground for most of the world’s oil majors, which have sniffed our resources of oil and gas on a truly gargantuan scale ,” said Malcolm Graham-Wood, oil analyst, VSA Capital.

Another report notes that the most dynamic recent developments in the African natural gas sector have been in East Africa. The region is now seen as the “new promised land” or the “next epicentre” for global natural gas, the latest “new frontier. With the recent massive discoveries, it represents the growth engine for Africa’s natural gas sector.

“Ten years ago, East Africa was a non-story as far as oil and gas were concerned, with complex geology, poor seismic data and difficult political factors resulting in only a few local coastal explorations with little consequence.

“Currently, only a few East African countries have actual resources or better yet, reserves. As exploration ramps up and development begins in earnest, however, resource, reserve, and production numbers are likely to run up much higher,” says the report.

Demand will push companies with operations in the region skyward, larger market capitalisation will fuel more exploration, drilling programmes will uncover more deposit while stocks will shoot and the early investor will be along for the ride.

Africa is certainly the hot spot for oil and gas exploration as well as foreign investment. But East Africa stands out on the continent. Geologically, East Africa is a much more complex system than West Africa, thus the lack of exploration until the last few years.

Today, the East African Rift system is the largest continental one on Earth. From the Red Sea, it extends some 3,500 kilometres though Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Mozambique. These potential areas for oil production are several magnitudes larger than the entire North Sea — which produces one-third of Europe’s oil and gas needs.

“The race is on for African oil and recently, the East African Rift has been drawing oil companies from around the world.

“World-class oil deposits lie under and off the coast of East Africa. Major oil companies and wildcatters alike have been vying for position here in recent years. East Africa can help other countries get it,” the report notes.

While small-scale exploration and production had been going on for decades in the sub-region, US independent producer Anadarko opened the new frontier in 2010 with its massive Windjammer discovery in Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin in offshore northern Mozambique.

Four subsequent discoveries in the area by Anadarko, along with major discoveries in nearby Area 4 by ENI in the Mamba prospect, have boosted recoverable reserve estimates for Mozambique to as high as three tcm (trillion cubic metres).

In the adjoining Tanzanian portion of the Rovuma Basin, BG Group and Ophir Energy have also hit major gas deposits, as has Statoil and its partner ExxonMobil.
Interest in neighbouring offshore Kenya and Madagascar is increasing, based on the belief that similar geological compositions will be found. The Tertiary Rift Basin contains Block 10BB and Block 13T— the March 2012 discovery.

Prior to Ngamia, the Loperot-1 well was drilled by Shell in 1992, where it recovered 29 degrees API of waxy crude oil. Though this finding demonstrated a working petroleum system, Shell gave up on the project when it discovered that the sandstones were water-bearing.

Ten wells have been drilled in the Lamu Basin since the 1950s, and an additional 820 square kilometres of 3D seismic data acquired offshore. Though several wells had indications of hydrocarbon pres­ence, none was fully assessed or completed for production.

The Anza Basin had 10 wells drilled between 1985 and 1990 by Amoco and Total, but none of them showed indication of hydrocarbons.
The same group drilled two wells in the Mandera Basin during the same period, but the wells were also dry. The Bogal-1 exploration well, drilled in 2009 by CNOOC, also proved dry and was subsequently plugged and abandoned.

As recently as 2006, East Africa did not even make the list of oil producers. That began to change in 2007 when Heritage Oil and Tullow Oil announced a one-billion-barrel discovery in Lake Albert, Uganda.

Oil and gas explorers have reported major discoveries each year in the region since then, most recently out of a Kenyan project of Africa Oil spudded in January 2012.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Oil-and-gas-discoveries-i…

[motz1]

Über die Entwicklung Kenyas hin zum Ölproduzenten:

.............................

Striking ‘black gold’ to change Kenya’s fortunes

By ZEDDY SAMBU
Posted Sunday, December 30 2012 at 19:56


Workers at the oil rig as the drilling of the oil is going on at Ngamia 1 in Turkana county, April 5th, 2012. The discovery of oil in Turkana has caused a lot of interest in the region.

In Summary•Industry experts say that when the oil is proven to be of sufficient exploitable quantities, then the government has to first invest in infrastructure to bring it to the market. The next phase of development will be the production stage — the level that Uganda, which discovered oil six years ago is currently at.


After walking the long and difficult journey for nearly six decades in search of oil and gas deposits, Kenya announced its first successful discovery this year in Turkana and offshore, a major milestone for the country.

The discovery of about 52 net metres of natural gas in Mbawa prospect, an offshore block off the coast of Lamu, also confirmed that there are viable hydrocarbon deposits in the Tertiary Rift.

It also puts to rest previous perceptions that the region has no hydrocarbons after in 2007 Australia’s Woodside Petroleum Ltd hit a dry well at its Pomboo-1 off the coast.

Kenya’s four major basins — Anza, Lamu, Rift and Mandera four sedimentary basins of Lamu, Mandera, Anza and Tertiary Rift —have a combined surface area of about 485,000 square kilometres.

Experts, however, want policy makers to develop comprehensive oil and gas policies, strategies, legal and institutional framework that is transparent and robust and with Kenyans intended as key beneficiaries of these natural resources.

“With discoveries of oil, a comprehensive master plan for petroleum now becomes a priority,” said industry consultant George Wachira.

Eric Aligula , head of infrastructure at the public policy think tank, KIPPRA is urging policy makers to fast-track investments in the sector to link production areas and demand centres in the sector.
“We should deal with infrastructure which is the biggest challenge in the oil sector ,” said Dr Aligula.

Even as the commercial value is awaited in the new year, of importance now is how the discovery of oil will transform the economic, energy and infrastructure landscape, enabling the country to gain rapid growth.

“If the deposits are found to be commercially viable, it would be a key enabler of economic development in Kenya and would sit alongside Vision 2030, the economic blueprint that aims at turning the country into a middle income country in the next 18 years,” said Martin Mbogo, general manager for Tullow Kenya.

Industry experts say that when the oil is proven to be of sufficient exploitable quantities, then the government has to first invest in infrastructure to bring it to the market. The next phase of development will be the production stage — the level that Uganda, which discovered oil six years ago is currently at.

But multiple wells will need to be drilled to confirm commerciality of the oil discoveries both in the onshore Block 10BB and offshore Block L8, despite the fact that the discoveries of both crude oil in the onshore and natural gas in the offshore is confirmation that there are active and working petroleum systems in Kenya’s sedimentary basins.

“Producing oil requires investment, infrastructure and a compelling commercial argument. Two well outcomes on their own, cannot give a complete picture of the basin’s potential so more wells will be drilled and more testing and appraisal work will be completed,” said Mr Mbogo.

Tullow Oil, plans to explore the Lokichar sub basin but also other prospects that have been mapped in the Tertiary Rift while US independent oil major, Anadarko Corporation last week spud two ultra deep offshore wells off the coast of Lamu. US explorer Apache Corporation is continuing with drilling of the offshore well in the Mbawa prospect.

The search for oil is also set to intensify as five new onshore and offshore blocks are currently being redrawn by the Survey of Kenya.

Mwendia Nyaga, an industry expert said any investment in the right petroleum infrastructure to build a robust oil and gas industry is now justified.

The search for the ‘black gold’ has taken years. Perceived high geological risk in Kenya was for the last five decades, a key disincentive that turned away major oil companies who own the risk capital for investment in oil and gas exploration. Major exploration companies had kept away from Kenya due to the history of hitting dry wells and they preferred to invest in countries with proven petroleum reserves .

Between 1960 to 2010, a total of 32 oil exploration wells had been drilled, but all were classified as dry although 18 of them had some oil and gas shows. Of the 46 petroleum exploration blocks, nine of which were created following the March, 2012, first discovery at Ngamia 1 well, 44 are licensed to international oil companies. A number of high profile international oil companies continue to express interest in the country’s four petroleum exploration acreage.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/oil-to-change-Kenya-fortu…

[motz1]

Video zu East-Africa bei platts:

----------------------------

Global oil exploration hotspots

Featuring Richard Swann, Stuart Elliott, and Robert Perkins
December 20, 2012 11:00:00 EST (15:24 mins)

Richard Swann, Stuart Elliott, & Robert Perkins discuss how an average crude price of over $100 has been a catalyst for a surge of successful oil explorations across the world; how "matching" geological basins in South America & Africa are proving rich hunting grounds for oil companies; the steep financial risk faced by independent oil exploration companies, and how new technology is helping to push exploration beyond traditional frontiers and rapidly grow the amount of recoverable oil.

http://www.platts.com/Videos/2012/Dec/oilexploration

[x_trader]

Allen ein gesundes neues Jahr.

So über den Jahreswechsel hat man ja Zeit zum reflektieren.

Seit über 10 Jahren beschäftige ich mich Explorer Firmen.
Seltsam ist, das bei über 95% dieser Explorer ein roter Faden zu beobachten ist. Seltsam ist, das bei positiver Exploration, den in der zwischenzeit an Bord gespülten Kleininvestoren (also du und ich) der Eindruck vermittelt wird, das die Exploration "kein wirtschaftlich verwertbares Ergebnis" erbracht hat. Das ist sehr merkwürdig, denn es wird über verschiedene Kanäle diese Eindruck aufrecht erhalten. Dann wird der Focus von den Expolorations-Objekten genommen und ein Schleier des Schweigens folgt. Der Kurs der Explorer geht dann langsam vor die Hunde und die Meute wartet auf die nächste Exploration. Nur den großen Wurf macht fast kein Kleinanleger, da die meisten erst bei relativ hohen Kursen investiert haben. Irgendwie werdenden den Kleininvestierten wie dem Esel die Möhre (Kursziel) vor die Nase gehalten, doch die ausgegebenen Kursziele der Möhrenverkäufer treten nie ein. Man schaue sich mal die explorierten Liegenschaften z.B. von Energulf, Manas, Petromanas, Pancontinental, Exeter usw. an und dazu die politisch motivierten Statements und den Kursverlauf.
Mir scheint, das die meisten Explorations-Firmen mit den Kleinanlegern sehr bewusst diese Spiel spielen. ... Und irgend wann, wenn die Zeit reif ist, tauchen bei den Big Playern diese Liegenschaften dann auf und diese beuten diese Liegenschaften dann aus...

Irgendwie alles ein sehr schmuziges Spiel.

Wie gesagt, das ist meine persönliche Erfahrung und es betrifft ja nur ca. 95% der Explorer.

Mal schaun, ob AOI zu den 5% gehört.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.971.836 von x_trader am 01.01.13 15:03:07

Hi x_trader,

da bin ich gerade über ein aktuell wieder einmal verwendetes Zitat gestolpert das mir auch heute noch gefällt und mich in 2013 begleiten wird:

[...]
But regardless of the possible tangles for the world’s oil firms, there will be many ready to take a chance, said Keith Hill, whose Africa Oil Cop. (AOI.V) is exploring in Kenya and the politically unstable Horn of Africa.

“No guts, no glory,” he said.
[...]

http://afragenesis.net/east-africa-energy-boom-at-risk/

[Resources]

...wie wahr motz1 !!!!

@all: Wünsche allen ein frohes Neues und auch in 2013 mächtig Beute für unsere Depots !!!!

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.971.836 von x_trader am 01.01.13 15:03:07

xTrader,

Ich würde Dir raten nicht zuviel auf Verschwörungstheorien zu bauen.


Zu einem Teil ist es denke ich schon richtig was Du sagst, aber zum einen schiessen zu diesem Thema meiner Erfahrung nach viele Leute (masslos)über das Ziel hinaus, zum anderen wird es sich oft nicht überprüfen lassen was davon nun stimmt -und was nicht.

Und das hat meiner Ansicht nach oft schlechte -katastrophale Auswirkungen: Weil Du/man ja nicht genau weiss was nun stimmt, aber daran "glaubst", gehst Du/man /teilweise)davon aus. Teilweise wird man, mit seinen Mutmassungen, wahrscheinlich auch richtig liegen, aber annähernd sicher auch mit so einigen falsch. Hier nutzt Dir dann nur nix wenn Du dann sagst "Ich hab mit 9/10 Vermutungen richtig gelegen" -nur die 1ne war halt wichtig. Und damit wird Deine/jemands Einschätzung/Spekulationsgrundlage ganz fix zu einem Kartenhaus.
Kurzversion der Geschichte.

Ich würde soetwas versuchen dringend zu vermeiden -weils meiner Überzeugung nach, sehr oft, tödlich ist.

Gruß
P.

[x_trader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.972.167 von Popeye82 am 01.01.13 19:39:32

Leider sind das keine Verschwörungstheorien. Leider.
Ich begleite einige Explorer seit über 5 Jahren und lese jede Info und News zu deren Projekten und schaue mir auch die Daten der explorierten Liegenschaften an. Und da wird ein sehr schmutziges Spiel gespielt.
das kann man jetzt mir jetzt glauben oder selbst mühsam recherieren.

Wer möcht, kann sich ja mal zu einem ganz anderen Thema, aber zum gleichen schmuzigen Spiel, dieses Video genauer anschauen:



Dieses Video betrifft nun nicht Explorer, sondern die Art und Weise wie Meinungsfreiheit in Deutschland behandelt wird. Und wer glaubt, das bei Millionen und Milliarden Dollar Ligenschaften ein ehrlicheres Spiel gespielt wird ... der kann gern daran glauben.

Ich sag dazu nur eins:
Griechenland ist nicht deswegen Pleite und Sorgenkind der EU, weil die Griechen angeblich total blöd sind. Nö.
Der Grundstein für den Zusammenbruch wurde 2000 durch dubiose Aktionen der Banken und vor allem Frankreichs gelegt.


Ich weiß, das sind alles nur Verschwörungstheorien.
Mag jeder glauben was er mag.
Nur beschäftigt man sich mit einigen Themen ausführlicher, und recherchiert selbst und übernimmt nicht die Meinungen der andern ungeprüft und unüberlegt, dann beginnt die heile Welt und Realität zu wanken.

Ach ja, WTC7 ist deswegen eingestürtzt, weil ... ja warum eigentlich?


Ich weiß, das ist alles so uncool und will eigentlich keiner Wahr haben, denn es schmerzt sehr, wenn vielleicht doch ??? etwas wahres dran ist, nur dann stellt sich die Frage, bis in welche Lebensbreiche reicht diese Spur der Lügen und Manipulation.

[x_trader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.972.167 von Popeye82 am 01.01.13 19:39:32

Und hier noch ein Beispiel, wie merkwürdig der Kurs von Energulf sich mit den Aussagen des Explorer-Chefs decken. Man hat einen super Fund getätigt, aber oh Wunder, der liebe Kleininvestor hat das alles missverstanden. Und weil der Kleininvestor so sau blöd ist, ist der Kurs dann auch da wo er heute ist, also die Kleininvestoren werden für den Kursverlauf verantwortlich gemacht.
Und bei 1711 geht es um ein Milliaden Hydrocarbon Fund.

[x_trader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.972.228 von x_trader am 01.01.13 20:33:55

Würden wir bei AOI solch einen Fund wie auf 1711 haben und man würde uns erzählen, das (aus welchen Gründen auch immer) eine förderbare Erschließung nicht möglich ist, dann würden einige Investoren garantiert zur Waffe greifen.

Denn solch einen Fund wie auf 1711 findet man nicht jeden Tag. Und nach dem Interview mit den Chef von Energulf wurde der Fund mit einer "Decke des Schweigens" zugedeckt. Seit letztem Jahr werden keine e-mail-Anfragen von Energulf beantwortet und der Chef wurde seit dem auch nicht mehr in der Öffentlichkeit wahrgenommen.

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.972.210 von x_trader am 01.01.13 20:21:48

Da hast Du mich glaube ich ziemlich falsch verstanden. Ich sage nicht dass diese Ansichten (alle)falsch sind. Aber an der Börse, zur Einschätzung einer Firma u.ä., ist es vom Prinzip tödlicher 10Thesen zu haben, und 1ne ist falsch -als 2, 3zu haben, die dann auch wirklich alle stimmen. Und wenn man sich auf so (dünnes)Eis begibt, dann steigen die Chancen rasant Mutmassungen dabei zu haben, die nicht stimmen!!. Zudem läuft man, meiner Beobachtung nach, arg Gefahr ein extrem verzerrtes Weltbild zu bekommen.

Generell stimme ich Dir bei einigen Sachen schon zu(war früher selber lange Jahre Fritz Hörer(müsst doch der ehemalige Moderator sein?)), aber an der Börse halte ich es für existenziell dass man zwischen Tatsachen/"harten Fakten" und Mutmassungen unterscheidet. Und das dann auch entsprechend gewichtet. Ich zum Beispiel versuche dann ganz bewusst solche Punkte als "Möglichkeiten im Hinterkopf" zu haben -aber NICHT gezielt darauf zu bauen. Das ist ein GANZ großer Unterschied. Ansonsten steigen die Chancen meiner Überzeugung nach extrem, dass es -selbstverschuldet- bös ins Auge geht.

Dein Video zu Jebsen hab ich mir mal bis gegen 18:00 angeschaut. Ich finde -er hat vom Prinzip vollkommen Recht. Und auch wenn es vielleicht nicht so positiv wirkt finde ich es eigentlich gerade gut, dass er dem Moderator immer wieder bisschen ins Wort fällt, als der Ihn abwürgen will. Weil es einfach richtig ist was er sagt(wenn der Fall, wie er Ihn schildert, so stimmt) -dass es dann einfach eine UNGLAUBLICHKEIT ist, Ihn so abzusägen. Und KEINER fragt, KEINEN interessiert es im Endeffekt. Aber so läuft es halt einfach. Das sind offen gesagt auch so Punkte, die mich wahnsinnig ankotzen. Ist so eine Art negativ Psychologie, die einfach funktioniert. Wie war das nochmal wenn man eine Zeitung verkaufen will? -Sex, Drogen, Unglücke und Geld?? Oder so ähnlich. Aber so funktioniert es wohl irgendwie einfach. Lieber schön die "richtigen" Formulierungen, der "(Political)Corectness", als sich mal wirklich für etwas einzusetzen wo man von überzeugt ist dass etwas ganz falsch läuft. Und wo man auch mal "gegen die Masse/Mehrheit angehen muss". Muss an der Stelle jetzt aufhören, sonst bekomme ich einen chronischen Brechreiz.


Eine Sache aber noch:

"Seltsam ist, das bei über 95% dieser Explorer ein roter Faden zu beobachten ist. Seltsam ist, das bei positiver Exploration, den in der zwischenzeit an Bord gespülten Kleininvestoren (also du und ich) der Eindruck vermittelt wird, das die Exploration "kein wirtschaftlich verwertbares Ergebnis" erbracht hat. Das ist sehr merkwürdig, denn es wird über verschiedene Kanäle diese Eindruck aufrecht erhalten. Dann wird der Focus von den Expolorations-Objekten genommen und ein Schleier des Schweigens folgt. Der Kurs der Explorer geht dann langsam vor die Hunde und die Meute wartet auf die nächste Exploration. Nur den großen Wurf macht fast kein Kleinanleger"

Möchte ich jetzt "generell" auch nicht anzweifeln, dass es TEILweise stimmt. Aber 95% kommen in meinen Augen niemals hin, eher genau anders herum. Es ist doch im "NORMALfall" eher so, dass sich die Firmen nach "signifikanten" Entdeckungen so rosarosarosarot darstellen, was im Endeffekt auch ein Grund ist warum das Vertrauen in Explorer-/Minenwerte u.ä. kaputt ist. In der Regel wird den Firmen ja eher das genaue Gegenteil vorgeworfen. Von daher verstehe ich Deine Aussage hier nicht -und halte sie für falsch.

Grüße
P.

[x_trader]

Der Kurs hält sich noch ganz wacker. Ich hatte schon mit einer kleinen Korrektur gerechnet, aber die nächsten 2-3 Tage sollte nach dem schönen Kursanstieg damit zu rechnen sein.

Auf Phönix läuft gerade ein netter Beitrag über die Ölpolitik der USA und wie diese die 3. Weltländer die letzten Jahrzehnte manipuliert hat. Sehr interessant.

Der Beitrag lief auch schon im ORF.

[Mea_Culpa35]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.976.216 von x_trader am 03.01.13 00:59:02

Nach dem Strohfeuer zum 02.01. sucht der Kurs wieder seinen Weg Richtung 5 CAD.
Trotzdem sind die derzeitigen Notierungen noch Trostpreise, sollte bekannt werden,
dass es sich bei Ngamia sowie Twiga um low pressure reservoirs handelt!

Diesen GAU wünsche ich keinem Investierten.

[motz1]

Quo vadis, Mea_Culpa35?

Für einen Moment dachte ich es gibt sie doch, die Glaskugel.
Du hast am 07.12. ein seit 3CAD bestehendes überkauft-Signal ausgemacht und dich dennoch zum Kauf entschlossen.
Ich kann auch noch den Verkauf nachvollziehen und auch bei mir gibt es Enttäuschung über den Kursverfall. Aber wieso "Mir soll's recht sein, ich habe mich jetzt zu 49 abgesichert"? Wieso nur noch ohne Fakten und negativ? Warum 5CAD und nicht 0,5? Was ist an den bislang bekannten Twiga-Ergebnissen bzgl. net pay schlecht?

Der Wind hat gedreht, das Fähnlein auch?

--------------

07.12.2012

Zitat von Mea_Culpa35: @ niki

Ich schätze deine Arbeit, doch charttechnisch helfen uns bei AOI nur Resultate, Resultate und nochmals Resultate.
Der Rest ist weder Fisch noch Fleisch, ein Duster, polit.Entscheidungen oder ein Takeover lassen wenig Spielraum für Charttechnik.
Das zeigt die RSI zwischen März und Mai sehr deutlich, überkauft bis Oberkante, klares Verkaufsignal ab 3 CAD.

Nach der Charttechnik müsste man jetzt verkaufen, klarer Bruch unter großem Volumen, Short Interest nimmt sprunghaft zu...

Tätige trotzdem sukzessive Zukäufe, da einfach gesagt, dass Ganze entscheidender sein kann.

11.12.2012 12:43

Zitat von Mea_Culpa35: Wie es ausschaut, bekommen wir die 40 SEK doch etwas schneller... .Mir soll's recht sein, habe mich jetzt zu 49 abgesichert

Wer noch etwas Ironie übrig hat, kann sich den "Life changer" Spruch von KH auf der Zunge zergehen lassen...

11.12.2012 14:21

Zitat von Mea_Culpa35: Niki der sich nicht So leicht vom Baum schütteln lässt .:-)

Dann hoffen wir für dich, dass du nicht mehr in deinem Baum hängst, wenn dieser im Sägewerk liegt!

Mein Tipp für Ende 2012: 5 CAD





Hoch gesegelt, tief gestürzt, billig übernommen...

25.12.2012

Zitat von Mea_Culpa35: While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable...

[Mea_Culpa35]

Salve motz1,

kurze Ausführung meiner Beweggründe:
.
Investiert seit Feb.12, durch sukzessive Zukäufe lag EK bei 5,20 CAD,
Anlagehorizont 14/15, absolutes Vertrauen in TLW, Lundin & Co!

2 Worte: not exploitable

Low pressure reservoir, Pimärförderung unwahrscheinlich, Sekundärförderung durch fehlende Wasserreserven "schwierig".

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass verwertbare Förderquoten geliefert werden, imo 5%.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.986.263 von Mea_Culpa35 am 05.01.13 21:32:00

Woher hast du diesen Teil, wer sagt das?

"2 Worte: not exploitable

Low pressure reservoir, Pimärförderung unwahrscheinlich, Sekundärförderung durch fehlende Wasserreserven "schwierig".

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass verwertbare Förderquoten geliefert werden, imo 5%."

Wie kommst du zu einer solchen Annahme hinsichtlich "Förderquoten"?

[schuppe07]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.986.364 von motz1 am 05.01.13 23:25:45

würd mich auch interessieren...

[motz1]

Morgen gibt's wohl eine neue Präsentation. Infos von user Sweden1/investorshub.

-------------


Sweden1
Sunday, January 06, 2013 2:31:06 PM
Post # of 2517

From a person in our stock chat in Sweden..

On Monday I’ll be posting a new presentation on the website which will have some interesting cross sections of the Ngamai and Twiga wells – it really helps to explain the location of the pay zones, etc. It will also summarize all the other wells proposed for this year.

Sweden1



Sunday, January 06, 2013 2:36:17 PM
Re: Sweden1 post# 2515
Post # of 2517

And late January/early Februari for results from Paipai and Twiga.

Paipai hit?

Regards

[gabbo62]

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) Drilling Results from the Kenyan well Paipai expected in the next month as well as production tests from the Kenyan well Twiga, where the oil has already been found.
It says Tullow Oil to Direkt on Monday.
As for the Ethiopian well Sabisa expected to begin drilling shortly, according to Tullow.
Further information about these events is expected on Friday when Tullow releases his so called trading statement and operational update, informs Tullows spokesperson on.
Africa Oil has Paipai and Sabisa of interest 30 percent, with Tullow as operator.
The Twiga Africa Oil is half owner with Tullow as operator here too.


Quelle: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&…99

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.989.263 von gabbo62 am 07.01.13 12:07:04

Danke gabbo62, gefällt mir!

----------

User freddahl hat noch folgendes gepostet:



RBC takes to Africa Oil in the list of best ideas 2013
RBC Capital Markets, takes oil company Africa Oil to their list of BestIdeas 2013th AnalysisHouse recommendation for the stock is at outperform witha price target of 84 SEK.

It is clear from an analysis of Africa Oil dated 7 January.

Africa Oil providesan exciting year with several interesting drilling. The investment bank notes drilling the Kenyan Paipai, where results reasonably expected shortly, Ethiopian Sabisawith drilling starting fairlysoon and Kenyan Kinyongawhere drilling is expected to start the second half of this year.

In addition, expected tesproduktionerfor wells Twiga and Ngamia in Kenya, where the company already found oil.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.989.344 von motz1 am 07.01.13 12:28:20

Präsi? Thanks to user freddahl, here we go:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B-tbNiS5siSjS296bXQ5SG45UE…

Die AOI-Website ist derzeit nicht erreichbar, wie auch die von anderen Lundin-Companies. Ich vermute dass sich das in Kürze auch wieder einpendelt...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.993.976 von motz1 am 08.01.13 12:06:48

Falls der Link (auch nach Entfernen des vorabgestellten http aus der URL) euch nicht funktioniert, einfach den hier in die Adresszeile kopieren:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B-tbNiS5siSjS296bXQ5SG45UE…

[motz1]

Die Homepage ist wieder erreichbar, die neue Präsentation ist nun auch dort abrufbar: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-01-07_CP.pdf


Ich versuche mal ein paar Infos aus der Präsentation zusammenzufassen.

Aus den Porositätswerten zu der tieferen bislang unbekannten 800m-Schicht von Twiga kann ich keine klare Aussage erkennen, wir werden in den kommenden Tagen wohl noch einige Meinungen hören und dann ja auch die Testergebnisse bekommen. Die Schicht ist und bleibt für mich ein Bonus – wenn nichts daraus wird nicht schlimm, wenn doch umso besser.

Klarer Explorationsfokus für dieses Jahr liegt im Lokichar sub-basin. Innerhalb dessen liegt der Southern String of Pearls. Mit Ngamia-2 und Twiga-2 sind die ersten beiden Appraisals geplant. Mit Ngamia South, Loperot Updip, Ekales S & D (vorher Kongoni) und Etuko (vorher Kamba) stehen momentan vier weitere Bohrungen mit CoS bei 34-39% fest. Anhaltspunkt: Twiga hatte 39% CoS pre-drill.

Für Ngamia und Twiga steht das Testprogramm fest.

Im South Omo Block, wo der Spud von Sabisa (CoS von 17%) nun täglich erwartet wird, ist zudem noch die Bohrung von „Shimela“ geplant. Derzeit werden 1000km 2D-Seismic erhoben, das in der Abbildung (slide 20 großes Bild) leere Fleckchen namens „Chew Bahir basin“ scheint Inhalt zu bekommen…

Im noch AOI-operated Block 9 (mit Marathon) werden voraussichtlich „Kinyonga“ (CoS 19% auf 320MMBbl Best in H2/13) und „Pundamilia“ (CoS 19% auf 402MMBbl Best) gebohrt.

Auch in den von New Age geführten Blöcken 7&8 in Äthiopien wird es eine Bohrung geben die voraussichtlich vor Juli beginnt.

Der eingezeichnete Pipelineverlauf ist m.E. selbsterklärend .

Interessant ist auch slide 30, man erfährt dort wer die Zeche zahlt…


Ich glaube wir haben eine sehr, sehr schöne Präsentation bekommen. Viele Infos und interessante Graphiken. Ich hatte noch keine Company die in einem Jahr ein solches Programm mit solchen CoS und Zielgrößen durchpeitscht.

Alles wie immer IMVHO.

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.995.471 von motz1 am 08.01.13 16:28:33

Hallo motz1,
danke für's reinstellen. Ich habe mir die Präsentation auf der Homepage angesehen.
Wirklich beeindruckend und absolut lesenswert.Habe mich bereits gut 10 Jahre im "Explorationsgeschäft" getummelt und bisher noch nie so eine gute Präsentation gesehen. Zeigt eindeutig, das die Leute was drauf haben.
So nun etwas zur Charttechnik:
Vom Candlestick her ist übergeordnet ein SELL ausgegeben.
Der Slow STO ist ebenfalls auf Verkauf gestellt.
Anfang Januar wurde ein zusätzliches GAP gerissen.
Was gut aussieht ist, dass kein Verkaufsdruck aufkommt. Der Umsatz ist sehr gering, was den Kurs auch sehr anfällig auf zufällige Bewegungen macht.

Grundsätzlich gefällt mir der Chart ganz gut, auch wenn 2 Indikatoren auf Rot stehen. Betrachtet man den MA 50 (8,44 CAN$) und den MA 50(8,17 CAN$) dann kann man gut sehen, dass beide zueinander laufen. Wenn sich beide treffen, dann kann man von einem Impuls ausgehen, der sich im Kurs positiv niederschlägt. Zusammen mit den offenen GAP`s sehe ich großes Potential nach oben.
RSI hat sich auch wieder auf den Weg nach oben gemacht. Derzeit bei 40,27 %

Fundamental ist alles bestens. Sollte in Kürze eine gute Meldung veröffentlicht werden, wovon ich derzeit ausgehe, dann wird der Umsatz wieder stärker, was den Kurs nach oben hebeln wird.
Trotz einem Anteil von 90% in meinem Depot kann ich ruhig schlafen. Die Kursrücksetzer der letzten Tage habe ich genützt um meine Positionen weiter aufzubauen.
Niki

[motz1]

Eine Erklärung und Einschätzung zu den Porositäts- und Permeabilitätswerten von User cocoon aus dem Tullow-Forum auf iii:

-----

I have just re-read the presentation from AOI and there they have released the results of their log readings from the log cores. I am surprised that they were allowed to release these as they give us a very good idea as to what to expect from the flow testing.

See: https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B-tbNiS5siSjS296bXQ5SG45UE…


To understand what all this means you need to have a basic understanding in geology, so at the risk of offending people on this board I apologise in advance for teaching you to suck eggs but I am sure there are others who are not so Knowlegeable.

For any well to be successful, the rock/sand that is drilled into has to have good properties of both 2porosity" and "permeability".

Porosity consists of the tiny spaces in the rock that hold the oil or gas. For example a sandstone rock that is deemed to have 10% porosity means that the gaps in between the rock is 10% oil bearing whilst the other 90% is the actual rock and hence of no commercial value.

Permeability is a characteristic that allows the oil and gas to flow through the rock. It is a measure of the resistance a rock has to the flow of fluid through it.If it takes a lot of pressure to squeeze fluid through a rock, that rock has “low permeability” or “low perm.” If fluid passes through the rock easily, it has “high permeability,” or “high perm.” The permeability of a rock is measured on a scale from O to 1000 and is expressed in millidarcys where 0 means nothing moves and 1000 is virtually free flowing.

The benchmark or rule of thumb in the industry for producing a decent well requires the well to have as a minimum: 8% porosity and a minimum of 10 millidarcys permeability.

Now look at the figures quote on the AOI presentation. Bear in mind that these results are taken from the immediate vicinity of the drill hole and hence may vary as you move out into the basin but they are a very good indication of what to expect.

Basically as I see it :-

a) The 100m Ngamia column and the Twiga 30m column appear to have excellent porosity and permeability qualities and should provide for a very good flow rate.

b) The secondary resevoir at Ngamia (40m) column has adequate porosity and permeability qualities and should provide for recovery but nowhere near the rates as that of the 100m column described in (a) above.

c) The 796m fractured rock play does not have the minimum requirements for recovery under normal practices. This still may have a commercial value though if it is possible to use an alternative recovery means such as the employment of fracking or horizontal drilling.


All in my humble opinion of course but those 100m Ngamia and 30m Twiga columns are looking very good.


Good Luck to all

C

[motz1]

Es folgen ein paar Fundstücke der vergangenen Tage - wieder jeweils nur die ersten Zeilen, zum Weiterlesen den Link nutzen...

------------------

The East African
Kenya set to auction five oil, gas blocks as new rules take effect
By KENNEDY SENELWA
Posted Saturday, January 5 2013 at 18:14

In Summary
•Ministry of Energy will in the coming weeks publish the new three offshore and two onshore acreages in the Kenya Gazette upon completion of the demarcation of exploration areas surrendered by two licensed companies — Anadarko and Tullow.
•The five new blocks will increase Kenya’s exploration areas to 51 from the current 46 and the auction is expected to trigger a fresh jostle among oil exploration majors keen to tap into Kenya’s oil and gas business.
•Kenya will pocket at least Ksh425 million ($5 million) from the sale of the five blocks.
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Kenya-set-to-auction-fi…



China in Africa: Partners in the Year of the Snake
By Jen Alic | Tue, 01 January 2013
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/China-in-Africa-Partn…



Report: Africa’s Oil Consumption is Fastest Growing in the WorldJanuary 7, 2013 By EurPublisher
http://www.eurweb.com/2013/01/report-africas-oil-consumption…

[motz1]

Einer noch, bei der UKTI wurde ein EOI für die Kenya/Uganda Pipeline veröffentlicht...

-------------------------------

Wednesday, 02 Jan 2013

Kenya/Uganda – Refined Petroleum Products Pipeline: Expression Of Interest For A Private Investor

The Government of the Republic of Kenya and the Government of the Republic of Uganda are desirous of developing a refined petroleum products pipeline from Kenya to Uganda . The Pipeline is to be developed as a Public-Private Partnership.
[...]
http://www.ukti.gov.uk/de_de/export/howwehelp/businessopport…

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.002.070 von motz1 am 09.01.13 21:02:02

Hallo Motz, ich glaube dass Africa Oil unter dem Placementpreis notiert, weil viele Investoren vorsichtig geworden sind. Schon oft wurden Öldiscoveries gemeldet, die aber letztendlich überhaupt nicht oder nicht kommerziell förderbar waren. Da scheinen noch einige skeptisch zu sein, was bei den vielen Pannen und Dry-Holes im Ölsektor auch kein Wunder ist. Entscheidend ist für mich, dass sich bei Ngamia und Twiga im Prinzip dieselben Eigenschaften (wachsartiges Crude) wie in Uganda gezeigt haben. Man sollte auf die Fähigkeiten des Managements einfach mal vertrauen. Wenn die Flowrates stimmen, sehen wir m.M. neue Hochs.

[gabbo62]

For those interested in the opinion of analysts, today Deutsche Bank have announced AOI as one of their top four European oil picks for 2013.

Price target of SEK 70, or around C$10.50. Here's what they had to say:

We remain positive on the EA potential, but shares could be volatile

The reality check provided by the market reaction to the Twiga South results
presents an opportunity, in our view, as the time to invest in Africa Oil must
surely be ahead of a fully funded, highly active exploration campaign over
2013, which could deliver further material resource additions. We stay at Buy,
albeit with a reduced TP of SEK 70 (from SEK 80). However, we would wait for
the Twiga South testing/Paipai-1 results given the risks flagged around these
events. As with 2012, volatility is likely to be a hallmark of the shares and the
story clearly carries above-average risk – particularly Kenya country risk (i.e.
the electoral process) likely to be a key influence in 1H13. Buy.

A risk worth taking in our view, but timing of entry is key

Based on the end-2012 experience, the market hopefully now understands
that frontier exploration in East Africa can throw up unexpected/ambiguous
results. That may be stating the obvious, although the AOI story had an almost
messianic appeal in 2012 given the dearth of exciting exploration stories
elsewhere in the sector. Looking forward, it would be hard to describe AOI as
‘cheap’ in a conventional sense, as the shares continue to discount that
discovered resource (i.e., Ngamia) is converted into commercial reserves and
there is further exploration success. However, value is an abstract concept at
this stage of a pure exploration story – i.e., share price performance will be
driven more by the potential for rapid resource accretion rather than what a
full field development might be worth. On this measure, we remain Buyers of
the AOI story, given the company has entered 2013 fully funded for a very
active drilling campaign, with a number of wells scheduled to be drilled in the
Lokichar basin where there is strong evidence of a prolific hydrocarbon system
at work. However, timing will be key – we would exercise some caution ahead
of the Twiga South (risked SEK 3/unrisked SEK 6) testing and Paipai-1 (risked
SEK 1/unrisked SEK 8) given the clearly flagged risks attached to both. The
Sabisa-1 well (risked SEK 1/unrisked SEK 4) has game-changing potential if
the Lokichar source rock is repeatable on South Omo. We will also be keeping
a close eye on Kenya country risk – the March elections could materially
impact sentiment if the violent aftermath of the 2007-8 elections is repeated.

Valuation and risks

Distilling the potential of Africa Oil’s East Africa footprint into a single value
remains an exercise in creativity, and estimates are likely to change
significantly on the results of further drilling. Our conceptual models of a full
field oil development onshore Kenya and Ethiopia deliver unit NPVs of
US$8.4/bbl and US$7.5/bbl respectively. Our base case RENAV of SEK 39 is
essentially end-2012 cash balances (DBe cUS$230m) less budgeted 2013
exploration expense (US$185m) to which we add risked exploration upside
from the indicative 2013 drilling campaign. We then add a premium to reflect
the upside potential outside the Lokichar and South Omo. This gives an
adjusted RENAV of SEK 80 (on US$110/bbl) and SEK 61 (on futures/US$90
LT). Averaging the two implies a revised target price of SEK 70 (from SEK 80).
Key risks: Paipai-1 and Twiga South results, Kenya electoral process.

Quelle: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&c…

[Mea_Culpa35]

So ist zu befürchten, dass Paipai-1 ein Flop werden wird...
Anders lassen sich die vielen "Kaufempfehlungen" schwerlich erklären...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.002.910 von schwochner am 10.01.13 01:32:59

Dem kann ich mich anschließen, warten wir die Flowrates ab. Man kann sich immer noch an Tullow orientieren. Immerhin ein 15Mrd-Schiff mit jahrelanger Erfahrung in unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft. Sie haben Ngamia als ihr beste jemals gedrillte well bezeichnet.

Twiga ist die zweite wildcat well, hat bislang 30m net pay gebracht. Fällt mir schwer das negativ zu sehen. Wer dachte dass nach Ngamia nur noch bessere Ergebnisse kommen werden, der wurde -m.E. naturgemäß- eines besseren belehrt. Viele der Uganda wells produzieren mit gleichem net pay. Warten wir die Flowrates dazu ab.

PaiPai wurde im Prinzip ja bereits ohne Fakten trocken gelabert...

[motz1]

Aus dem heutigen Trading Statement von Tullow:

---------------------------------------

Kenya and Ethiopia
Following the discovery of a major new oil basin in Kenya with the first two exploration wells, up to eleven
further exploration and appraisal wells are planned in Kenya and Ethiopia in 2013 as detailed in the exploration
drilling schedule. These include the high risk Paipai-1 wildcat in Block 10A which is currently in the top seal of
the main objective at a depth of 3,850 metres. A result is expected in February 2013. The Sabisa-1 well in the
South Omo block in Ethiopia is expected to commence drilling within the next two weeks.
A testing programme, to build up our knowledge of the natural variance in reservoir performance, has now
commenced on Twiga South-1 and is expected to be completed by February 2013. Test flow rates are not
expected to exceed 500 bopd per interval due to the limits of the test equipment, reservoir energy and the
Page 3 of 7
reservoir quality. Five tests are planned with three in the Upper Lokhone reservoir. Operations following
testing will include the drilling of the Etuko-1 well on what was formerly known as the Kamba prospect and
flow testing Ngamia-1.


Bohrprogramm 2013 für Kenya und Ethiopia:
Kenya
10A Paipai 50% In progress
13T/10BB Testing (Twiga and Ngamia) 50% In progress
10BB Etuko (formerly Kamba) 50% Q1 2013
13T Ekales-S (formerly Kongoni) 50% Q1 2013
13T Ekales-D 50% Q2 2013
10BB Etuko-C 50% Q2 2013
10BB Ngamia Appraisal 50% Q3 2013
10BB Ngamia South 50% Q3 2013
13T Twiga Appraisal 50% Q4 2013
Various Contingent testing x3 50% 2H 2013

Ethiopia
South Omo Sabisa 50% Jan 2013
South Omo Shimela 50% Q3 2013
South Omo Contingent well 50% Q4 2013

http://library.the-group.net/tullow/client_upload/file/Tullo…

[motz1]

NR von AOI:

----------------------------

Africa Oil Operations Update

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 11, 2013) -Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") is pleased to provide the following update on its operations in Kenya and Ethiopia.

With two significant oil finds achieved to date, the Company and operating partner, Tullow Oil plc, continue their very aggressive 2013 drill program on the newly discovered East African play fairway. The partnership currently has three rigs active in the area.

The testing program on the Twiga discovery well is underway with final results expected to be announced in early February. Five zones are being tested. Based on analysis of the electrical logs, conventional and sidewall cores and MDT sampling program, the Company estimates a flow rate of approximately 500 bopd per interval. It is important to note that the test results may be limited by the size and capacity of the pump and testing equipment being used and a number of other factors including reservoir characteristics and pressure.

Drilling operations continue at the Paipai prospect in Kenya Block 10A which is preparing to drill ahead at 3,850 meters after setting 9 5/8" casing. The well has penetrated a shaly interval which is believed to be a potential top seal for the main objective reservoirs of Lower Cretaceous and possibly Jurassic age. The well is expected to reach total depth in the first half of February.

In Ethiopia, the Sabisa well in the South Omo block is expected to commence drilling by the end of January.

In addition, the Company reports that it has terminated its interest in Blocks 7 and 11 in Mali and been released from all future obligations in relation to these Blocks. The Company previously wrote-off its capitalized costs related to Mali during the first quarter of 2012, recognizing a $3.1 million impairment.

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=57175256&qm_sym…

[bmann025]

Zitat von motz1: ...Page 3 of 7 reservoir quality...

Weiss jemand, wie dies definiert ist ?

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.009.024 von bmann025 am 11.01.13 09:49:24

Sorry, kann ich dir ziemlich genau sagen: Ist ein Copy&Paste-Fehler von mir .
Schau dir das PDF dazu an, ist an der gleichen Stelle wie im Original - warum aus der 3 allerdings eine 2 wird ist mir schleierhaft. Wobei es ohnehin nicht da sein sollte...

[gabbo62]

Frage an die Explorer-Experten: Gibt es eine Erklärung für diese Verzögerung bei Paipai? Es scheint, als hätte man zwischenzeitlich die Bohrung für Tests unterbrochen.

Aus NR vom 26.11.12

Elsewhere in Africa Oil's East African Rift basin portfolio, the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A in Kenya is drilling as planned and results are expected to be released by the end of the year.

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

Aus NR vom 11.01.13

Drilling operations continue at the Paipai prospect in Kenya Block 10A which is preparing to drill ahead at 3,850 meters after setting 9 5/8" casing. The well has penetrated a shaly interval which is believed to be a potential top seal for the main objective reservoirs of Lower Cretaceous and possibly Jurassic age. The well is expected to reach total depth in the first half of February.

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.014.240 von gabbo62 am 12.01.13 15:02:53

Hi gabbo62,

ich gehöre zwar nicht zu den Experten, und habe PaiPai noch nicht abgeschrieben.

Ich hatte mir die selbe Frage gestellt. Neben der gesamten allgemeinen Drill-Problem-Palette die aus meiner Sicht in Frage kommt (geologischer Art, technischer Art, ...) hoffe ich auch auf Tests. "Too much oil" war bei Ngamia die Erklärung für die Verzögerungen...

Dass Tullow bei Twiga nun -so verstehe ich es- zwei Tests für die untere 800m-Zone plant finde ich interessant. Wenn da was gehen sollte .

Tullow scheint insgesamt ziemlich happy mit Kenya zu sein, was ich aus deren Operational Update herauslese:
"The clear highlight in 2012 was establishing Kenya as a new oil nation with two frontier discoveries at Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1. These discoveries are, alongside successful exploration in Uganda and recent major offshore gas discoveries by industry peers, establishing East Africa as an exciting new energy region."

Anscheinend ist Tullow ziemlich zuversichtlich, dass sich etwas draus machen lässt...

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS NEWS

January 14, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Announces Spud of Sabisa Well in South Omo Permit in Ethiopia

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 14, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI) (OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce the commencement of drilling operations on the Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block in Ethiopia. The well was spud on January 13, 2013 by the Operator, Tullow Oil Plc ("Tullow") and is currently drilling ahead. The well is expected to take approximately 60 days to reach the planned total depth of 2,600 meters. Africa Oil holds a 30% working interest in the block with Tullow holding a 50% interest and Agriterra Limited ("Agriterra") holding the remaining 20% interest. Marathon Oil Ethiopia B.V. ("Marathon") has announced a transaction to purchase Agriterra's interest in the South Omo Block. This transaction is subject to Ethiopian Government approval.

The South Omo Block is located in the northern portion of the Tertiary East African Rift trend where Africa Oil and their partner, Tullow, have made two significant discoveries in the Lokichar Basin of Kenya. The Sabisa well is located on a similar structural feature as those two discoveries, along a major basinal fault trend. The basin that this well is located in is slightly younger in age than the Lokichar Basin. One of the primary goals of this well is to prove that the petroleum system extends to the north which could open up a new sub-basin if successful. There are numerous prospects and leads on trend with Sabisa. Partners are currently acquiring 1,000 km of 2D seismic data in the Chew Bahir Basin, located in the eastern portion of the block. Prospects identified from this newly acquired survey could provide future drilling candidates that would test another sub-basin within the Tertiary rift trend.

Africa Oil President Keith Hill commented, "This is an exciting well which has the potential to de-risk a large portion of our current portfolio of prospects. With the aggressive exploration campaign planned with our partners Tullow and Marathon in 2013, we will have the opportunity to dramatically change the profile of the Company in the upcoming year. With our recent financing completed, we are well situated to execute one of the most exciting exploration campaigns in the world class East African play fairway."

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-announces-s…

[gabbo62]

Schöne Zusammenfassung eines Stockhouse-User:

This I create by combining the drill schedule from the Tullow RNS Friday and from the AOI corporate presentation.



Exploration Wells

In progress - Paipai (Kenya, Block 10A); P50 gross prospective resources: 121 million bbls; Chance of success 10%

In progress - Sabisa (Ethiopia, South Omo Block); P50 gross prospective resources: 68 million bbls; Chance of success 17%

Q1 2013 - Etuko (Kenya, Block 10BB); P50 gross prospective resources: 231 million bbls; Chance of success 34%

Q2 2013 - Etuko-C (Kenya, Block 10BB); No information available; potential up-dip from Etuko?

Q2 2013 - Ekales-S, (Kenya, Block 13T); P50 gross prospective resources: 64 million bbls; Chance of success 39%

Q2 2013 - Ekales-D (Kenya, Block 13T); Planned as down-dip sidetrack to Ekales-S well

Q2/Q3 2013 - El Kuran-3 (Ethiopia, Blocks 7/8); AOI internal estimate of gross oil in place: 1.3 billion bbls; Issue is whether prospect can produce at commercial rates (acidizing, fraccing, and horizontal sidetracks being considered)

Q3 2013 - Ngamia South (Kenya, Block 10BB); P50 gross prospective resources: 68 million bbls; Chance of success 39%

Q3 2013 - Shimela (Ethiopia, South Omo Block); No information available

2H 2013 - Kinyonga (Kenya, Block 9); P50 gross prospective resources: 320 million bbls; Chance of success 19%



Contingent/Potential Exploration Wells

Q4 2013 - To Be Announced (Ethiopia, South Omo Block)

To Be Confirmed - Pundamilia (Kenya, Block 9); P50 gross prospective resources: 402 million bbls; Chance of success 19%



Testing/Appraisal Wells

In Progress - Twiga and Ngamia Testing (Kenya, Blocks 13T & 10BB)

Q3 2013 - Ngamia Appraisal (Kenya, Block 10BB)

Q4 2013 - Twiga Appraisal (Kenya, Block 13T)



Contingent Testing/Appraisal Wells

2H 2013 - To Be Announced (Various)





API38


Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&…

[motz1]

Es gibt ein oilprice-Interview mit Maxwell Birley, CEO eines Explorers in Kenya. Er macht einige interessante Aussagen zu Kenya im Allgemeinen und zum Anza-Basin (Block 9) im Speziellen.

Ich stelle hier ein paar Auszüge zusammen, das gesamte Interview ist recht umfangreich aber sehr lesenswert, wie ich finde.

--------------------------

Oilprice.com: In terms of exploration what are the ‘sweet spots’ in Kenya?

Maxwell Birley: Definitely the Anza Basin. Currently, the proven sweet spots are in the Tertiary sediments of the rift basins of Uganda and Kenya. More specifically to Kenya in the Lokichar Basin as proven by the Ngamia and Twiga wells by Africa Oil.

These basins form part of the larger East African Rift system. This is a very extensive rift system and many new plays will be discovered in the next few years. The Anza Basin is the largest of these East African rift basins and 10 times the size of Uganda’s Albertine Basin and Kenya’s Lokichar Basin. This rift contains Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary sediments.

Taipan is exploring for oil in the south eastern end of the Anza basin. Located on block 2B we have proven more than 9,500 feet of Tertiary section on the block. From the geochemical modelling we have undertaken we see the same oil source rocks in the Anza Basin that are present in the Lokichar basin, which are highly likely to be mature for oil generation on Block 2B. In addition we also believe that more oil discoveries will be made in the Cretaceous and Jurassic basins if you can find favourable places to drill.


Oilprice.com: And that’s what you’re really chasing here—with these roughly 10 million acres in the Anza Basin—the tertiary play...

Maxwell Birley: Agreed. What we’re primarily chasing in Block 2B is the same Tertiary oil play that Tullow inherited originally in Uganda. The discoveries there were the main reason Africa Oil and Tullow drilled the Ngamia and Twiga oil wells in Kenya—which have also been very successful. Of course, don’t overlook the fact we also have a secondary Cretaceous oil play in the block, that appears to be broadly analogous to the Cretaceous plays present in the Muglad Melut basins of southern Sudan and is the main focus of exploration efforts in Block 10A, operated by Africa Oil Corp.
[...]


Oilprice.com: Tell us what 2013 will look like for exploration in Kenya?

Maxwell Birley: Ten exploration wells should be drilled in Kenya in 2013. Based on the previous success rate it is expected that a significant number of these will be discoveries. Tullow will continue drilling wells on Blocks 10BB and 13T on the west side of the country to find more oil in that string of pearls.

Also we shall shortly get the results of the Paipai-1 well which is currently drilling in northern part of the Anza Basin. The well is testing Cretaceous & Jurassic plays, with a potential 121 million barrels. Other wells including Sabisa and Kinyonga also expected to be drilled in 2013.


Oilprice.com: For Kenya, a discovery at Paipai-1 would prove that oil discoveries of Sudan extend into Kenya. What would it mean for Taipan?

Maxwell Birley: There have already been Cretaceous gas discoveries in Kenya. Taipan believes that if you can find the Cretaceous that has not been buried too deep it will be prospective for oil. However we think the Paipai well is very high risk as it seems likely to be a recent tectonic inversion structure and therefore may be breached by recent faulting. We think we can find on Block 2B Cretaceous structures that are oil prone that have not been breached by recent faulting. So if that well does come in then it is going to be good news for the Anza Basin in general, but if dry it will not write off the Cretaceous potential in our block. Having said that I should point out that this is not our main focus at this time.


Oilprice.com: What about other prospects, like the Kinyonga well?

Maxwell Birley: Kinyonga is the next big prospect that is going to be drilled by Africa Oil Corp. and that is very meaningful for us. Kinyonga, which is on Block 9, will be located relatively close to our block, is both Tertiary and Cretaceous prospect. It has an unrisked resource estimate of 320 million barrels prospective, and it is one of the largest prospects in Africa Oil’s portfolio of drilling targets. Africa Oil also has another prospect called Pundamilia which is even closer to our block. This prospect has a unrisked resource Best estimate of 402 million barrels and a High estimate of 952 million barrels which I believe is the largest prospect in Africa Oil’s portfolio.


http://oilprice.com/Interviews/Kenyan-Oil-Hot-and-Getting-Ho…

[motz1]

Oil explorer Tullow to announce drilling results at its third well


An oil rig operated by Tullow Oil. Tullow will announce drilling results of its third well in Kenya in February 2013.

By NATION REPORTER
Posted Sunday, January 13 2013 at 18:51

In Summary
•The company struck more than 100 metres of net oil pay at its first well located in Block 10BB in March last year, raising Kenya’s prospects of becoming an oil producing nation
•Besides releasing drilling results for its third onshore well, Tullow is expected to announce the results of testing of its second well, Twiga South-1, which are crucial in giving an indication of the country’s potential of being an oil producer

British oil explorer Tullow Oil Plc will announce drilling results of its third well in Kenya next month.

In a statement on Friday, where the company gave an update of its operations, Tullow said it considered 2012 a successful year in its operations.

The company struck more than 100 metres of net oil pay at its first well located in Block 10BB in March last year, raising Kenya’s prospects of becoming an oil producing nation.

The discovery has since been followed by another one at the Twiga South-1 well, located in Block 13T.

“The clear highlight in 2012 was establishing Kenya as a new oil nation with two frontier discoveries at Ngamia-1 and Twiga Soutgh-1.

“Results for Paipai-1 in Block 10A, which is currently in the top seal of the main objective at a depth of 3,850 metres, are expected in February,” read the statement in part.

Together with an offshore well in the Lamu Basin that the company is drilling together with three other oil and gas exploration companies, Tullow has so far dug four wells in Kenya.

Schedule

In its drilling schedule, the company plans to drill an additional 11 exploration wells in Kenya and Ethiopia this year.

Last year’s oil discoveries have fuelled increased interest in the local oil blocks among international companies.

This has further been accelerated by discoveries of commercial quantities of oil and gas in neighbouring Uganda and Tanzania, respectively.

The two countries share the same geological structure with Kenya, a pointer that the country could be seated on substantive oil or gas reserves.

In September last year, Australian firm Pan Continental announced that it had discovered 52 metres of natural gas deposits at Mbawa 1 well located in Block L8, which it operates jointly with Tullow Kenya BV, Apache Corporation and Origin Energy.

Besides releasing drilling results for its third onshore well, Tullow is expected to announce the results of testing of its second well, Twiga South-1, which are crucial in giving an indication of the country’s potential of being an oil producer.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Tullow-to-announce-dri…

[niki550525]

Zur Abwechslung mal wieder was von der Charttechnik -Front :

Wie man am Umsatz in CAN sehen kann, besteht derzeit kein großes Interesse an aoi. 142K sind schon recht mager.
Das bedeutet für die Charttechnik, dass die Analyse recht fehlerhaft sein kann, da der Kurs mit wenig Stückzahlen in die ein oder andere Richtung gedrückt werden kann. Das sollte man hier berücksichtigen.
Denke das sich viele auf der Seitenlinie befinden und auf anstehende Ergebnisse warten.
Bei 10,5 CAN$ hagelte es an Kaufempfehlungen. Heute bei 7,00 CAN$ halten sich die Analysten zurück und geben maximal Halteempfehlungen mit reduzierten Ausblick, heraus. Verrückte Welt.
Aber so ist halt Börse. Für mich ist das ein Kontraindikator !!!

Charttechnik:
Candlestick-> Übergeordnet SELL mit der Empfehlung auf warten.
RSI -> 44% mit leicht steigender Tendenz
Slow STO -> mit 45,07 zu 46,54% leicht im roten Bereich
SAR -> liegt mit 6,28 CAN$ im grünen Bereich.

Fazit: Derzeit gehe ich von einer Seitwärtsbewegung mit leichtem Anstieg aus.Vorerst müssen die 7,5CAN$ geknackt werden und das auch mit anziehenden Umsätzen. Das Momentum ist wichtig !
Denke das momentan einfach aufgrund von der Wartetaktik der Marktteilnehmer der Deckel auf dem Kurs ist.
Sollte eine positive Meldung herausgebracht werden, wird der Kurs mit hohem Volumen und einem Aufwärtsgap nach oben springen.
Also Warten ist angesagt. Ich gebe kein Stück aus der Hand :-)
Niki

[Mea_Culpa35]

Tullow und Afren mal wieder mit Slapstick-Einlagen... Gehe jede Wette, dass Paipai keinen Erfolg bringt!
Auch Twiga dürfte die Erwartungen nicht überteffen...

Wer etwas Geduld hat, der sollte spätestens im Februar zu 5 CAD einige Teile aufladen können.

[Mea_Culpa35]

Tullow Oil plc: Outlook downgraded at Nomura and Buy rating on Africa Oil (TP SEK 95)

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/stocks/2475-tullow-oil-plc-out…

Klare Sache: Tullow kaufen und bei AOI auf die 5 CAD warten!

[lionking1963]

hey super culpa, leihst du mir auch mal deine glaskugel oder bist du wahrsager.

[motz1]

Fundstücke der vergangenen Tage:

----------------------------------

BREAKING NEWS: Tullow Oil Begins Drilling in South Omo
January 16th, 2013

The British oil exploration firm, Tullow Oil Plc, has begun drilling a well, in the concession it has in South Omo, southern regional state. This came at the backdrop of seismic tests the company carried out for a year and half, on an area covering 18,000 square kilometre. The bloc where the drilling started – named after a rare bird in the area, Sabisa (literally translated to heron), – last week. It is the first well in Ethiopia for the British oil company. Petronas, a Malaysian oil giant, was the first to dig wells in the search for oil in Ethiopia, in Gambella Regional State. Oil was not found in any of the wells Petronas dug before its departure from Ethiopia a couple of years ago.
http://www.dailyethiopia.com/index.php?aid=1326



South Sudan pushes for completion of the Juba-Lamu pipeline
Posted Saturday, January 12 2013 at 19:20

In Summary
•The plan is to complete the $5-6 billion pipeline within a year and a half and start pumping crude oil to the Lamu port for export before embarking on the construction of a refinery to be based in Isiolo.
•Growing mistrust between Sudan and South Sudan has seen Juba pushing for the project, which should see it export crude oil.
[...]
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/South-Sudan-pushes-for-…

[motz1]

+5,8% in Kanada bei moderatem Volumen und SK von 7,61CAD - so kanns weitergehen...

Hier ein Artikel zu Sabisa und Äthiopien. Die drei Monate sind m.E. sehr großzügig, wir werden sehen.

---------------------------

Tullow to Announce Oil Test Results
Yetneberk Tadele All Africa Global Media

Tullow Oil Plc, the oil and gas explorer based in the United Kingdom, will announce in three months the results of the geological test drills it started last Sunday, January 13, 2013, on its concession in South Omo.

Drilling will take place, up to 2,600m deep, to test the oil potential, after which a decision will be made whether or not to continue drilling, according to a Tullow official.

If the results turn out to be positive, the company could dig 12 more holes, in order to determine the quantity of oil that could potentially be extracted.

"Drilling is a very complicated process and it is difficult to predict whether there is oil or not before conducting the drilling test," Sisay Zerihun, corporate manager of Tullow oil Ethiopia told Fortune. "As the state minister [of Mines] said before, we shall cross our fingers and pray."

However, previously, senior managers of Tullow informed higher Ethiopian government officials that the area was rich in oil reserves; perhaps even larger than those discovered in Kenya and Uganda.

"There is also a similar result on the seismic survey conducted in the neighbouring countries;KenyaandUganda," says Sisay.

According to him, Kenya's drilling proved to be fruitful at 1200m. The drilling conducted in Kenya last year resulted in the discovery of 1.1 billion barrels of oil for the company.

Tullow conducted 18 months of seismic operations, on 18,000sqkm of land, before commencing with drilling operations. The Full Tensor Gradiometric Gravity survey and collection of seismic data, in the area, was conducted by the Chinese, BGP Geo Service Plc.

Tullow, which is headquartered inLondon, has concession rights in 23 countries, including three African countries;Ghana,KenyaandUganda. Its recent drilling activities in the two neighbouring countries were successful. In 2010, Tullow Oil bought a 50pc exploration stake inSouthOmoValleyfrom Africa Oil.

There are five areas in Ethiopia that are said to have a promising oil deposits, according to the Ministry of Mines (MoM), some of which have received more attention in recent years. Two of the areas, the Omo basin and the Chew Bahir basin, lie within the Rift Valley.

The Abay basin, on the other hand, covers a large area over the central north-western plateau, spanning Amhara and Oromia regional states, whilst sharing the same geo-tectonic origin as the Ogaden basin in the Somali Regional state. The basin is split up into nine blocks, three of which are already under exploration by Falcon Petroleum Ltd.

Of the five areas, the Ogaden basin, 350,000 sq km, is located in south-eastern Ethiopia and is the largest basin in the country. Natural gas has been discovered at Calub and Hilala, in the Ogaden, with estimated reserves of 84.9 billion cubic metres.

Mekele basin covers an area of about 8,000sqkm in the northern part of the country. The Gambella basin is the south-eastern extension of the Melut basin, where two oil discoveries (Adar and Yale, Sudan) have been made.

Petronas, a Malaysian oil giant, was the first to dig wells in search of oil in Ethiopia, in Gambella Regional State. Oil was not found in any of the wells, before Petronas's departure from Ethiopia, in January 2011. It conducted a geological survey in the area, but left before conducting any seismic study.

http://www.equities.com/news/headline-story?dt=2013-01-22&va…

[gimo211]

Hi motz1,

das sollte man vielleicht noch highlighten....

... die 1,1 Milliarden bbls discovery, die hier von einem Tullow-Manager erwähnt werden, können sich eigentlich nur auf Ngamia beziehen...

Zitat von motz1: "[...]According to him, Kenya's drilling proved to be fruitful at 1200m. The drilling conducted in Kenya last year resulted in the discovery of 1.1 billion barrels of oil for the company. [...]"

[motz1]

Hm,

Tullow, Afren, AOI, alle grün heute Vormittag/gestern Abend. Zufall?
Tullow könnte mit Guyana zusammenhängen.
AOI könnte mit neuem Merrill Lynch coverage zusammenhängen.

Was alle drei gemeinsam haben ist PaiPai...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.053.362 von motz1 am 23.01.13 12:22:43

Afren hat mit bei hohem Volumen (>34Mio anstatt 2,7Mio Durchschnitt) mit +6% geschlossen.

Mal sehen...

------------------------

Shares in explorers Tullow and Afren (LSE: AFR.L - news) gain 3 percent and 10 percent in late trading as traders cite rumours around a possible successful drilling result from a key well in Kenya, the results of which are due shortly.
"The reason [for the price moves] is market rumours that drilling results on the Kenyan Paipai prospect are coming," one trader says.

Tullow, which has a 50 percent share of the Kenya licence in question alongside partners Afren with 20 percent, and Canada's Africa Oil (CDNX: AOI.V - news) with 30 percent, said earlier in January that a result from Paipai was expected in February.

Drilling at the high-risk well in the frontier area of northern Kenya started in October.

East Africa has become a hotbed of exploration after several petroleum discoveries in the area, including one by Tullow in Kenya, pushed the region into the international limelight.

Tullow declined to comment on the rise in its share price, while Afren, whose shares hit their highest level since last April (Paris: FR0004037125 - news) , was not available for comment.

Reuters messaging rm://[e-mail]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-news-europe-tullow-a…

[niki550525]

Zitat von niki550525: Zur Abwechslung mal wieder was von der Charttechnik -Front :

Wie man am Umsatz in CAN sehen kann, besteht derzeit kein großes Interesse an aoi. 142K sind schon recht mager.
Das bedeutet für die Charttechnik, dass die Analyse recht fehlerhaft sein kann, da der Kurs mit wenig Stückzahlen in die ein oder andere Richtung gedrückt werden kann. Das sollte man hier berücksichtigen.
Denke das sich viele auf der Seitenlinie befinden und auf anstehende Ergebnisse warten.
Bei 10,5 CAN$ hagelte es an Kaufempfehlungen. Heute bei 7,00 CAN$ halten sich die Analysten zurück und geben maximal Halteempfehlungen mit reduzierten Ausblick, heraus. Verrückte Welt.
Aber so ist halt Börse. Für mich ist das ein Kontraindikator !!!

Charttechnik:
Candlestick-> Übergeordnet SELL mit der Empfehlung auf warten.
RSI -> 44% mit leicht steigender Tendenz
Slow STO -> mit 45,07 zu 46,54% leicht im roten Bereich
SAR -> liegt mit 6,28 CAN$ im grünen Bereich.

Fazit: Derzeit gehe ich von einer Seitwärtsbewegung mit leichtem Anstieg aus.Vorerst müssen die 7,5CAN$ geknackt werden und das auch mit anziehenden Umsätzen. Das Momentum ist wichtig !
Denke das momentan einfach aufgrund von der Wartetaktik der Marktteilnehmer der Deckel auf dem Kurs ist.
Sollte eine positive Meldung herausgebracht werden, wird der Kurs mit hohem Volumen und einem Aufwärtsgap nach oben springen.
Also Warten ist angesagt. Ich gebe kein Stück aus der Hand :-)
Niki

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heute auch mal was zur Charttechnik:
Umsatz ist in den letzten beiden Tagen gestiegen. Aktie wird daher wieder eher berechenbar.
Gestern hat der Candlestick ein BUY Confirm erzeugt.
Slow STO bei 84,75 und im grünen Bereich.
MACD im grünen Bereich
RSI im grünen Bereich bei 60,82%
SAR im grünen Bereich
Negativ sind, dass bei ca.7,25 CAN$ ein Aufwärtsgab gerissen wurde und wir gestern an der MA50 bei 7,85 abgeprallt sind.
Fazit: Wie vorhergesagt hat der Kurs das Abwärtsgap vom 10.12.2012 geschlossen.Sollte es dem Kurs gelingen die MA 50 nachhaltig zu überspringen, wird der Kurs weiter anziehen. Wenn nicht, dann ist es im Bereich des Möglichen, dass wir wieder auf die 7,25 CAN$ zurückfallen. Also sollte man die Tage ein gutes Auge auf den Kurs haben.
Dann noch schöne grüne Tage und bis zum nächsten mal.
Niki

[motz1]

Credits to Artie1966/investorshub!

-------------

Sabisa: Site Visit für Journalisten von 12.-15. Februar.

Originalmeldung: http://blogg.avanzabank.se/hemberg/2013/01/24/resor-driver-a…

Zitat aus Google-Übersetzung:
"[...]The example that is now current for Africa Oil, which is 12 to 15 February will take some of the region's five largest media to its new facility there. Obviously, it is price sensitive, I think.[...]"
http://translate.google.de/

------------

Zusatz: Tullow veröffentlicht seine Full Year Results am 13.02.

[sheriffxl]

AOI rafft sich langsam wieder auf.Hat sich gelohnt,dass ich bei ca. 5,20 Euro nochmal aufgestockt habe.Weiter so!

[gabbo62]

AFRICA OIL DRILLING SABISA-A KEY EVENT ACCORDING UBS (Bloomberg)

2013-01-29 11:27

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) Africa Oil's ongoing Sabisa drilling in southern Ethiopia can at a successful outcome may change the view of the company's East African oil exploration drilling adventure.

It writes the Swiss investment bank UBS in its brand new introductory coverage of the oil company, which buy recommendation given with a price target of 70 million. [gemeint 70 SEK]

"The ongoing Sabisa-drilling will be a key event for the shares, when the drilling is testing another area the Tertiary in the huge Omo / Turkana Basin", argues UBS.

In the near future two important messages from Africa Oil to keep your eyes on in the shape of the final test flows from the Kenyan cockpit Twiga and drilling results from the Kenyan Paipai-pit.

Shortly before 11:30 am on Tuesday quoted Africa Oil shares 3 percent higher to just under 52 million.


Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N1961…

[Mea_Culpa35]

Zitat von Mea_Culpa35: Tullow und Afren mal wieder mit Slapstick-Einlagen... Gehe jede Wette, dass Paipai keinen Erfolg bringt!
Auch Twiga dürfte die Erwartungen nicht überteffen...

Wer etwas Geduld hat, der sollte spätestens im Februar zu 5 CAD einige Teile aufladen können.

Nach derzeitigen Indikatoren kann es passieren, dass ich diese Wette verloren habe...

Chapeau!

[gimo211]

... Na "mea culpa" passt doch dann ganz gut als Avatar...

Ein mächtiger Start heute an der TSX - das spricht für leaky boat...

PaiPai und Sabisa sind beide signifikante Wells zur Bestätigung des gesamten AOI-Konzeptes in Kenya und Ethopia. Sollte PaiPai tatsächlich - against all odds - eine discovery sein, dann kann man das von der Bedeutung gar nicht hoch genug bewerten. Erstmals würde die südliche Ausdehnung des Cretaceous Rift Systems von South Sudan bis nach Kenya bestätigt werden... Zu schön, um wirklich wahr zu sein....

[gimo211]

Real Time Chart TSX

[motz1]

Thx to Roundandround/investorshub!

Interessante Graphik
..................................


Testing Begins In Twiga South 1
Section: Oil patch Sub-Sahara · January 27, 2013 · No comments |


Tullow Oil has commenced a testing programme, on Twiga South-1 onshore Kenya and is expected to be completed by February 2013.
Operations following testing will include the drilling of the Etuko-1 well on what was formerly known as the Kamba prospect and flow testing Ngamia-1, the first commercial discovery in the country.

The Twiga South test “is to build up our knowledge of the natural variance in reservoir performance”, the company says, “ Test flow rates are not expected to exceed 500 BOPD per interval due to the limits of the test equipment, reservoir energy and thereservoir quality”. Five tests are planned with three in the Upper Lokhone reservoir.

http://africaoilgasreport.com/?s=Testing+begins

[schwochner]

Man sollte nicht vergessen, dass die Ölpreise seit Wochen steigen - trotz der Medienwelle über das angebliche "Saudi Amerika", das schon bald zum größten Ölproduzenten der Welt aufsteigen soll...

Ich bin gespannt, wie die Flowrates ausfallen, was hinsichtich der Förderkosten extrem wichtig ist. Die teuren und kleinen Fracking-Wells in den USA sind aber m.M. keine Konkurrenz zum billigen und reichich vorhandenen Öl in Kenia.

[gabbo62]

Es kursieren in diversen Boards Gerüchte von einem Hit bei Pai Pai. 130m Net Pay.

[DermitdemBrokertanzt]

Die Quellen Bitte!!!
Oder gar nicht erst schreiben!!

[gabbo62]

Zitat von DermitdemBrokertanzt: Die Quellen Bitte!!!
Oder gar nicht erst schreiben!!

z.B.
Warnado1, Fr 19:16 Uhr

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AOIFF&displ…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.097.337 von DermitdemBrokertanzt am 03.02.13 12:09:39

Moment mal. gabbo62 hat Gerüchte als solche gekennzeichnet und wiedergegeben. Da gibt es ganz andere Fälle...

Zitat von DermitdemBrokertanzt: Also doch wieder nur ne Masche! Erst mit Hilfe von einem Börsenbrief hoch puschen und dann stück für stück abverkaufen. Alles mit hilfe eines Bösenbriefes den hier wohl jeder kennt! Ich bin raus auch aus den anderen Investitionen bzw. Empfehlungen dieses BB. Also die anstehenden News könnt Ihr vergessen AOI wird nach Bekanntgabe wieder für unter 3€ zu haben sein!

[motz1]

Und noch was interessantes. Sinopec interessiert sich scheinbar für Afren - oder zumindest für Teile:

...........................

Sinopec Said in Talks to Buy $1 Billion in Afren Assets
By Zijing Wu, Fox Hu & Will Kennedy - Feb 1, 2013 5:59 PM GMT+0100.

China Petrochemical Corp. (386), the country’s largest refiner, is in talks to buy more than $1 billion of assets from Afren Plc (AFR), people with knowledge of the matter said.

Sinopec Group, as China Petrochemical is known, is interested in Afren assets including those in Nigeria, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Afren, which also operates in the Kurdistan region of Iraq as well as other parts of Africa, said in November that it has been approached to sell stakes in its assets, without elaborating on the identity of the potential buyers.

A China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. storage tank stands in Hong Kong. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg
.
Seeking to meet demand in the world’s second-largest economy, China’s state-backed firms bought a record $29 billion of energy assets abroad last year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Beijing-based Sinopec Group agreed to buy a 20 percent stake in an offshore Nigerian field from French explorer Total SA for about $2.5 billion in November.

Afren rose 10.6 pence, or 7.4 percent, to close at 154 pence in London yesterday, valuing the company at 1.7 billion pounds ($2.7 billion).

Lv Dapeng, Sinopec Group’s spokesman, did not answer calls to his office seeking comment. An Afren official declined to comment.

Afren, based in London, had $1.8 billion of assets in Nigeria at end of 2011, and generated 92 percent of its $597 million in sales there that year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Revenue probably more than doubled to about $1.5 billion last year after production soared to 42,830 barrels of oil equivalent a day, Afren said on Jan. 22.

Afren expects to pump as much as 47,000 barrels a day this year, excluding Iraqi output, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/sinopec-said-in-tal…

[motz1]

Gerüchte!

......................

Tullow strikes natural gas deposits in the north

In Summary
•The deposits were struck at 4,100 metres, less than a kilometre to the target depth of 4,900 metres at the Pai Pai 1 well in Block 10 A.
•The block is half owned by Tullow, 30 per cent by Africa Oil and the rest by Afren Plc.

Tullow Oil has discovered deposits of natural gas at a well in northern Kenya, whose drilling is set to be completed later this month.

The deposits were struck at 4,100 metres, less than a kilometre to the target depth of 4,900 metres at the Pai Pai 1 well in Block 10 A. The block is half owned by Tullow, 30 per cent by Africa Oil and the rest by Afren Plc.

“They are now testing to see output at that high pressure,” said an official conversant with the progress.

Tullow declined to comment on the status of its operations in Kenya.

“It’s still status quo, nothing has changed since the last update given. The well is still drilling,” said Evelyne Serro, Tullow’s communications officer for Kenya. “You will receive an update as soon as this is concluded at total depth”.

Industry analyst George Wachira said commercial natural gas deposits interrupt the momentum in the continued search and testing at the Twiga 1 , Ngamia 1 well and also the Mbawa natural gas prospect off the coast of Lamu.

“Finding of gas also delays commercial confirmation of already discovered oil which, hopefully, the drilling of “Sabisa-1” in Ethiopia will help to confirm,” he added.

Kenya is working on laws for exploration, production, logistics and monetisation of natural gas.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Tullow-strikes-natural-ga…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Tullow-strikes-natural-ga…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.097.496 von motz1 am 03.02.13 13:44:56

An der "Afren-Front" gibt es auch weitere Gerüchte. Wenn es zu diesem Verkäuf käme, wären das eventuell neue Partner für uns in Kenia Block 10A und/oder in Äthiopien Blocks 7/8.

.........................

Afren ponders sales of Kurdistan, east Africa oilfields - report
02/01/2013 | LONDON | Sun Feb 3, 2013 5:20pm GMT

LONDON (Reuters) - London-listed oil explorer Afren (AFRE.L) has hired a corporate finance firm to look into selling its oil fields in Kurdistan and east Africa, leaving the group focused on its main assets in Nigeria, The Sunday Times reported.

Interest in both regions has soared after a string of discoveries, the newspaper said, and both China's Sinopec and U.S. oil company Exxon could be interested in buying the assets, which could fetch up to 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion).

Afren has appointed Steen Associates to look into both a sale and alternative plans, it said.

A spokesman for Afren declined to comment on the report.

(Reporting by Paul Sandle; editing by Keiron Henderson)

BusinessAfrica

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/03/uk-afren-asset-sale…

[lionking1963]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.097.489 von motz1 am 03.02.13 13:40:24

hallo broker, uns interssiert nicht was du mit deinen aktien machst aber ich finde es unverschämt das du die tatsachen in der öffentlichkeit so verdrehst.

companymaker und rohstoffraketen haben africa oil in ihrer sonderstudie im dezember 2011 zum kauf empholen zum damaligen preis von ca 1,30 € heute stehen wir bei 6 und waren schon bei 8 € das sind die facts und der rest von dir sind reine lügen.

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.098.430 von motz1 am 03.02.13 22:46:21

Industry analyst George Wachira said commercial natural gas deposits interrupt the momentum in the continued search and testing at the Twiga 1 , Ngamia 1 well and also the Mbawa natural gas prospect off the coast of Lamu.

“Finding of gas also delays commercial confirmation of already discovered oil which, hopefully, the drilling of “Sabisa-1” in Ethiopia will help to confirm,” he added.


das heißt, die Tests verzögern sich, weil Gas gefunden wurde? Davon haben Tullow und Africa Oil nie etwas erwähnt.
Öl tritt ja häufig in Verbindung mit Gas auf, es sollte aber kein Problem sein, einströmendes unter Kontrolle zu bringen. Naja, wir werden sehen, was AOI im Februar offiziell vermeldet.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.102.560 von schwochner am 04.02.13 21:53:18

Hi. Was folgt ist meine Meinung. Die ist subjektiv und kann vollkommen falsch sein.

Business Daily Africa war die Zeitung, welche die Ngamia und Twiga Treffer enthüllte. Der jetzige Artikel ist in Teilen sehr wirr.

Die von dir aufgeworfene Frage zu den "Verzögerungen" verstehe ich im Zusammenhang mit dem vorausgehenden Satz eher so: eine Öl-Discovery in PaiPai angenommen wäre ein weiterer Schritt in Richtung "commercial viability", da dann neben Ngamia und Twiga eine weitere Öl-Discovery bestünde. Man wäre einen Schritt näher an den nötigen Mengen, die für Pipelinebau und sonstige Öl-Infrastruktur ausschlaggebend sind. Also alles aus Branchenperspektive.

Auf die Tests von Twiga und Ngamia hat das m.E. keine Auswirkung.


Ich bin da ganz bei dir, AOI und Tullow werden uns informieren wenn sie es für sinnvoll halten. Und nur darauf sollte man sich verlassen. Seitens Tullow könnte der 13.02. interessant sein (Full Year Results).

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.102.831 von motz1 am 04.02.13 23:27:09

Hi Motz,

stimmt - aus Branchenperspektive macht die Aussage Sinn. Thx.

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.102.831 von motz1 am 04.02.13 23:27:09

.....wie Du schon geschrieben hast...reine Spekulation..
Derzeit spricht der Kurs eine andere Sprache.
In den letzten 6 Tagen haben wir einen Kursrückgang von 8,53 auf 7,69 CAN$ gesehen.
Der SAR wurde getroffen und hat ein zusätzliches Verkaufssignal generiert.Denke der Kurs wird auch nicht bei dem MA50, der derzeit bei 7,37 CAN$ steht, halt machen.
Bei 7,30 CAN$ ist übrigens noch ein kleines GAP offen.
Die Umsätze sind aber auch nicht allzuhoch. Da kann der Kurs leicht manipuliert werden.
Slow STO -> Negativ
Candlestick -> SELL

Na da kann uns nur noch eine gute Nachricht helfen.....
Trotzdem noch eine schöne WE
Niki

[gabbo62]

Niki, 1.494.414 Gründe, warum der Kurs nicht steigen darf.
Die Shorties scheinen sich sicher zu fühlen.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
1,494,414 31/Jan/2013
1,376,335 15/Jan/2013
1,162,385 31/Dec/2012

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Ein, wie ich meine, interessantes Interview zum Stand der Infrastrukturentwicklung in Kenia:

Kenyan Downstream Oil Business with Patrick Obath

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.112.540 von gabbo62 am 07.02.13 08:22:07

Hallo gabbo62,
da stellt sich natürlich die Frage, was war zuerst da, das Huhn oder das Ei.
Sind soviel short um den Kurs zu drücken oder weil sie glauben das der Kurs nach unten geht.
Wenn man auf die nächst anstehende Meldung von Pai Pai schaut, haben wir ein eine Trefferquote von 10%. Also 90% das nichts gefunden wird.
Dh. eine 90% tige chance das der Kurs weiter fällt.
Sowas gibt es in keinem Cassino :-)
Es kann aber auch anders kommen und das hat AOI auch bewiesen. Die Frage ist nur ob sie es auch dieses mal schaffen.
No risk no fun
So, schaut man sich den Chart an, so sieht man ganz deutlich, dass vor 7 Tagen die MA 200 nicht nachhaltig überwunden werden konnte. Daraufhin ist auch der Slow STO und der RSI nach unten weggekippt.Somit auch ein klares Verkaufssignal generiert wurde.
Seitdem hat der Kurs um 0,84 CAN$ nachgegeben. Also nicht "Weltbewegend" ab.
Denke mal das die MA 50 eine gute Unterstützung bildet, da der Kurs an dieser wie eine Perle nach unten mitgleitet.
Bei ca. 7,25 CAN$ befindet sich noch ein offenes GAP. Ich hoffe mal das dieses geschlossen wird und der Kurs im Anschluß nach oben geht.
Wir werden sehen
Niki

[texas2]

iii:

Disagree. AOI is not a take over target at present, and the article is lazy journalism. "Let me see; who has acreage in East Africa, and a relatively small market cap. Oh look, this AOI mob fit the bill..."

AOI has nothing proven up, as yet. Even Ngamia hasn't been flow-tested, although we all have (high) expectations. They are at the early stages of doing the exploratory drilling on their other prospects and haven't even found oil yet, let alone commerical quantities thereof. A major wants quantified reserves, not frontier drilling acreage bought at a premium.
And from AOI's perspective, why on earth would they want to sell at this point? They have what they think is one of the best acreages in East Africa, THE hot spot for oil exploration. They're well funded, have the backing of significant oil expertise and great partners. They believe they've already hit a major basin, with a lot more to prove up. Why would you sell for $1.5 or even $2bn now, when, realistically, this could be a $6-8bn company in two/three years time. This is pretty much a one-off opportunity, a small company having this big a footprint in such an exciting oil province. The Lundins are well aware of this, which is why they've been murmuring about taking it all the way to production. I don't think they actually will, but their ambition for the company is clear.

The BNP analyst needed something to put out in January to justify his bonus payment which is probably due shortly. Lazy.

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.120.683 von texas2 am 08.02.13 19:26:50

Richtig Sahne, dieser Beitrag. Dem kann ich nur voll zustimmen.

[bmann025]

Elliot Waves

Hamilton zu Africa Oil

http://www.hamiltonewave.com/2013/02/aoi-africa-oil-corp-upd…

[bmann025]

Hamiltons fruehere Analysen zu AOI waren ziemlich treffsicher:

http://www.hamiltonewave.com/tag/aoi/

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.117.200 von niki550525 am 08.02.13 07:14:05

Im Zeitraum vom 12 bis 15.02 befinden sich ausgewählte Journalisten in Sabine-1.Der Kurs zeigt wohl eine Enttäuschung der Journalisten . Morgen kommen die Zahlen von Tullow. Mal sehen wie sich diese auf den Kurs von Ali auswirken.
Wie schon die Tage geschrieben, habe ich gesehen, dass das GAB geschlossen werden will.Heute in CAN wirds wohl zugemacht . Dann steht einem Kursanstieg nichts mehr im Weg.
NIKI

[motz1]

Ein kleines Sammelsurium an Postings von user freddahl auf stockhouse - zweimal von Reuters, einmal aus dem schwedischen übersetzt. Kurzfassung: Reuters zitiert KH dass Twiga-Flows morgen kämen, möglicherweise mit PaiPai Nachrichten zusammen, die Sabisa-Ergebnisse werden zum Monatsende erwartet.

Für Freunde der Steuerlehre Kenias noch der letzte Beitrag, wonach AOI versichert wurde dass sich bei ihren Verträgen nichts ändert.

Morgen sollten wir mehr wissen...

------------------

Nairobi (Reuters) Africa Oil will likely release a press release on final test relevant flows the Kenyan well Twiga tomorrow, Wednesday.

It said the company's CEO Keith Hill told reporters on Tuesday in Nairobi.

In January, released preliminary results indicated that Parliament flows was 500 bopd per interval of Twiga well.

Africa Oil's which is Twiga is 50 percent. Operator is British Tullow Oil with the remaining 50 percent.

Keith Hill also said that Wednesday's press release could contain any kind of information or situational awareness around the Kenyan well Paipai where Africa Oil has an interest in 30 percent and where Tullow is the operator again.

Recently,Kenyan media reports claimed that gas found in Paipai.
..........


Africa Oil drilling results Sabisa end of Feb

Nairobi (Direct) Drill Results from the Ethiopian well Sabisa expected by the end of the current month, said Africa Oil president Keith Hill told reporters in Nairobi on tuesday.drilling has been faster than expected, summarizes Keith Hill certainty surrounding the drilling of the Ethiopian News Agency Direkt as spudded in mid-January and was supposed to take around two months to complete.In the Ethiopian license where Sabisa is Africa Oil has an interest 30 percent, where Tullow Oil is the operator with a 50 percent share.

GLTA

PS : Sorry for the google translate, better this than Swedish i suppose.
..........


Africa Oil - Same Taxes as before

AFRICAOIL IS APPLICABLE COMPANY'S TAXES
08:51 Nairobi(Reuters) Africa Oil has been advised that the Company's current fiscal conditions in Kenya on the taxation of the company's licenses will not be changed.

That was the message to journalists on Tuesday from the oil exploration company's management.

Kenya is currently revising their legislation for the oil and gas industry in the country since the old laws is from 1986.

The conditions that mayapply when the new legislation been identified and res judicata thus does not include agreements already concluded with no new agreements.

From time to time it has been speculated that Kenya would renegotiate even entered taxation conditions such as Africa Oil

[motz1]

Thx to Stockbrain/Stockhouse!

@texas2 und Staberhuk waren hinsichtlich take over target spot on!


"We've done some analysis and it indicates that the reservoir is better than we previously thought," said the President.

Erwartet wurden flowrates von max. 500bopd je Intervall - wenn wir am höheren Ende der Schätzung landen wäre ich recht zufrieden. Wenn es darüber hinaus gehen sollte ohnehin...

............................

AFRICA OIL CAN THINK OF SELLING THE COMPANY ABOUT 2-3 YEARS - CEO
(Direct)
2013-02-12 17:33


NAIROBI (Reuters) Africa Oil is willing to sell the entire company for 2-3 years.

It says oil exploration company's CEO Keith Hill in an interview with Nyhestbyrån Direct on Tuesday in the Kenyan capital Nairobi.

"I have met almost all the major players and they have all expressed interest but honestly I do not think they are so interested right now. They wait probably be happy for us to drill more wells so that the risk is reduced and they are then ready to pay a premium, "says the CEO.

He continues:

"Lukas Lundin has said that we are not for sale now, but in 2-3 years, we could consider selling the company or taking on a major partner to fund our operations going forward."

Africa Oil's budget for capital expenditure, capex, amounts to $ 186 million for this year and in 2014 assessed the level of investment could possibly increase slightly.

"Capex for next year is likely to be on par with or greater than the current year," said president allowing a budget of at least $ 200 million seems reasonable for 2014.

How will you get the money for 2014?

"If we do not get any jätteattraktivt bid from any of the really big players in the oil sector, I think we perhaps should get more money through a private placement and drill another year before we board an extensive partner or even sell the entire company" .

As for the Kenyan cockpit Twiga Africa Oil has found indications that the well's reservoir is better than the company previously thought.


"We've done some analysis and it indicates that the reservoir is better than we previously thought," said the President.

Do you think you can get up commercially recoverable oil from the deeper section of the well-Twiga?

"We have tested and we will go out with a press release about it," said Keith Hill, without going into detail about it.

What utfarmningsmöjligheter is concerned, look at Africa Oil to bring in a partner in its Somali operations and one or two licenses in Ethiopia, according to CEO.

The presidential election in Kenya, whose first round will be held on March 4, with a possible second round on April 11, hoping Keith Hill that power transmission is more peacefully than what happened at the last election in december 2007, when unrest in the aftermath of the election results led to more than a thousand deaths.

"From our standpoint, we are afraid it may affect our operations, we see no direct security threats to our staff. There is a reasonable risk that the business goes down a bit in the next few laps 6-8 weeks. But hopefully maktöverlämnadet much more peaceful to than the last, and things go back to normal. Oil has not been a major topic of debate in this election, "said Keith Hill the approaching Kenyan presidential election.

In 2013 the company is expected to drill 10 wells of interest, according to Keith Hill


Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N1965…

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS NEWS

February 13, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Corp.: Twiga South-1 Well Tests 2,351 Barrels of Oil From Two Zones-Final Test Ongoing

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb. 13, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to provide the following update in respect of its ongoing operations in Kenya.

Four flow tests have been carried out on the Twiga South-1 well in January and early February and a fifth test is ongoing. A cumulative rate of 2,351 bopd was recorded from two separate sands in the Auwerwer formation. One test flowed at a maximum natural flow rate of 1,860 bopd of 37°API oil and the other flowed at a rate of 491 bopd using a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP). The final flow test in the Auwerwer formation is ongoing using a PCP and we anticipate that the zone will flow over 500 bopd taking the total combined rate to over 2,850 bopd for the well. Two deeper tests were also completed on the tight reservoir rock at the bottom of the well and, as anticipated, both produced at sub-commercial flow rates and reconfirmed the presence of moveable oil.

The reservoir quality of the Auwerwer sands appears to be significantly better than predicted which was also supported by recent core analysis data with several values over 1 darcy permeability. These tests provide the first potentially commercial flow rates achieved in Kenya and provide real encouragement for the forthcoming DST programme at the Ngamia discovery, located approximately 22 kilometres to the south of Twiga South-1. With the conclusion of the Twiga South-1 testing programme, the Weatherford-804 rig will move to Ngamia-1A to re-enter the well and perform at least four flow tests.

The Company also reports that the Paipai-1 well has reached a total depth of 4255 metres, encountering igneous rocks at the base that appear to be basement. Light hydrocarbon shows were encountered in sands in the Lower Cretaceous interval and the well is currently being cased for additional fluid sampling by MDT. Further testing or evaluation of Paipai, if warranted, would follow with a dedicated testing unit. On completion of operations at Paipai, the Sakson PR-5 will mobilise to Kenya Block 10BB to spud the Etuko-1 well in the Lokichar basin. The spud is expected in 2Q 2013.

Africa Oil President and CEO, Keith Hill, stated, "We are extremely pleased with the reservoir quality and resultant flow rates in the shallow Auwerwer sands confirmed by this testing. We will now focus on this section as the primary reservoir in our upcoming exploration program on the western flank of the Lokichar Basin. We remain intrigued by the lower fractured reservoir and Lower Lokhone sands which will be further evaluated in future exploration. Our aggressive 2013 drilling program includes numerous high impact wells on trend with the Lokichar discoveries but also wells in new areas designed to open additional sub-basins in our large acreage portfolio."

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-corp-twig…

[motz1]

Tullow:

...........................

Kenya and Ethiopia

Tullow’s acreage in Kenya and Ethiopia includes Blocks 10A, 10BA, 10BB, 12A, 12B & 13T in Kenya and the South Omo Block in Ethiopia which together cover around 100,000 sq km. Tullow operates all seven of these blocks and has a 50% interest in six of them. In July 2012, Tullow completed the acquisition of an additional 15% interest in Block 12A, taking its interest in that block to 65%. Tullow also has a 15% interest in Block L8, offshore Kenya, with an option to increase this equity by a further 5%.

The onshore acreage covers over 10 Rift Basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, which have similar characteristics to the Lake Albert Rift Basin, and include a southeast extension of the geologically older Sudan Rift Basins trend. Exploration drilling in the Kenya Rift Basins commenced in January 2012 with the drilling of the Ngamia-1 wildcat well in Block 10BB. The well was drilled to a total depth of 2,340 metres and made a significant oil discovery of over 100 metres of net oil pay, across multiple reservoir zones within a 1.1 km thick gross oil bearing interval.

Exploration activity continued with the Twiga South-1 well which spudded in August 2012 and is located, on-trend, 22 km from Ngamia-1 in Block 13T. In November 2012, the Group announced that the well had encountered 30 metres of net oil pay and an additional tight reservoir rock section with hydrocarbon shows over a total gross interval of 796 metres. Moveable oil, with an API greater than 30 degrees, was recovered to surface from all sections, during an MDT sampling programme.

The discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga South demonstrate that substantial oil generation has occurred in the South Lokichar Basin, one of more than 10 Tertiary Rift Basins in the Kenya-Ethiopia acreage, each of which is similar in size to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda. To build up our knowledge of the natural variance in reservoir performance, and to assess deliverability and reserves, a series of flow tests will be conducted on both wells.

Four flow tests have so far been carried out on the Twiga South-1 well in January and early February 2013 and a fifth test is ongoing. A cumulative rate of 2,351 bopd was recorded from two separate sands in the Auwerwer formation. One test flowed naturally without pumping at a maximum flow rate of 1,860 bopd of 37°API oil and the other flowed at a rate of 491 bopd using a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP). The final flow test in the Auwerwer formation is ongoing using a PCP and we anticipate that the zone will flow over 500 bopd taking the total combined rate to over 2,850 bopd for the well. Two deeper tests were also completed on the tight reservoir rock at the bottom of the well and, as anticipated, both produced at sub-commercial flow rates and reconfirmed the presence of moveable oil.

These tests provide the first potentially commercial flow rates achieved in Kenya and provide real encouragement for the Ngamia test. With the conclusion of the Twiga South-1 testing programme, the Weatherford-804 rig will move to Ngamia-1A to re-enter the well and perform four flow tests. These tests are expected to deliver rates similar to Twiga South-1.

A Full Tensor Gradiometry (FTG) Gravity Survey has been completed across most of the Kenya-Ethiopia licence area and over 100 leads and prospects have currently been identified. Three drilling rigs are currently operational along with two seismic crews. Given the positive results to date, work is under way to secure further operational capacity to accelerate the exploration and appraisal campaign; this will include a further light rig for flow testing activities, and a 3D seismic capability to appraise the now proven hydrocarbon potential of the Lokichar basin.

In 2013, Tullow plans to drill up to 11 exploration and appraisal wells and carry out up to five well tests to de-risk further basins and to understand the potential scale of the South Lokichar discoveries. Whilst both the Ngamia and Twiga South discoveries have exceeded expectations and substantially de-risked further prospects in the South Lokichar Basin, it will require considerably more exploration and appraisal activity to be completed before the commercial threshold for the basin is achieved.

Paipai-1 has been drilled to a total depth of 4,255 metres. Light hydrocarbon shows have been encountered while drilling through Lower Cretaceous sands. We have been unable to obtain samples conventionally due to difficult hole conditions. The well is now being cased to enable sampling and the measurement of reservoir properties over a narrow zone of interest. We plan to evaluate and report on the conclusions drawn from this activity by the end of February 2013.

On completion of operations at Paipai the Sakson PR-5 will mobilise to Kenya Block 10BB to spud the Etuko-1 well in the Lokichar basin. The well is expected to spud in 2Q 2013.


The Sabisa-1 prospect in the South Omo block in Ethiopia commenced drilling in January 2013. This well is a high risk wildcat, testing for an entirely new petroleum system in the undrilled South Omo Basin. The rig is expected to drill up to two further wells in Tullow’s Ethiopian rift basin acreage during 2013.

In Block L8, offshore Kenya, the Mbawa-1 well encountered 52 metres of net gas pay in the shallower primary targets. This was the first hydrocarbon discovery, offshore Kenya and clearly demonstrates a working petroleum system. The well has been plugged and abandoned but the results will be instrumental in deciding the next steps on this highly prospective licence.

http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2012_full_year_re…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2012_full_year_re…

[motz1]

Für mich entscheidend: Durch die positiven Twiga-flow tests fand wieder ein (großes) de-risking für den gesamten Basin statt. Twiga ist ein Erfolg, ich freue mich auf das Appraisal und auf Ngamia und die folgenden look-alikes...


Twiga:
- Vermeldete derzeitige kombinierte flow rate von über 2351bopd, eine weitere Zone wird derzeit noch getestet und schafft laut Tullow wohl über 500bopd.
- natural flow von zumindest einer Zone: sehr gutes Zeichen.
- Die tiefere 800m-Zone lieferte mit den vorhandenen Mitteln keine ausreichenden flows
- Eine interessante Erklärung zu den technischen Limitationen der verwendeten Pumpen und deren mutmaßlichen Einsatzgrundes von otters/stockhouse:
„Getting 1,860 bopd with natural flow is positive given no natural flow was expected. I never fully understood the 500 BPD pump limitations as I had assumed they would use an ESPs (electric submersible pump). It is now clear why rates were limited - they have used PCPs (positive cavitation pump). These are very limited - to get 500 BOPD from the reservoir you will need to pump around 1,000 B of power fluid from surface. The size of pupm is dictated by the power fluid packae at surface. You will not get high rates but you will get the required data (high flow rates are only required for share price, not for reservoir data gathering).
PCPs have very fixed limits. I expect they have gone this way because they are worried about sand production (high porosity sands, shallow, low matrix strength) which they would have got with higher rate pumps (ESPs). Sand control measures can be implemented in the development wells to prevent this and allow much higher rates.”


Sabisa:
- Nichts neues, Ende des Drillings bis Monatsende erwartet (Tullow)
- Rig bleibt in Äthiopien, bis zu zwei weitere Drillings


PaiPai:
- Wurde bis auf 4255m gebohrt bis zum Erreichen des Basements
- Light HC-Shows im Lower Cretaceous
- Keine konventionelle Probenentnahme aufgrund schwieriger Bohrlochverhältnisse
- Beim casing sagt Tullow, dass damit eine Probeentnahme ermöglicht wird. Bzgl. Testing verrät uns Tullow, dass es wohl einen kleinen Bereich zu geben scheint der interessiert und bei dem man die reservoir properties testen will. AOI spricht von „additional fluid sampling by MDT“.
„The well is now being cased to enable sampling and the measurement of reservoir properties over a narrow zone of interest. We plan to evaluate and report on the conclusions drawn from this activity by the end of February 2013.” (Tullow)
“Light hydrocarbon shows were encountered in sands in the Lower Cretaceous interval and the well is currently being cased for additional fluid sampling by MDT.” (AOI)



Weitere bedeutsame Hinweise:
- ”These tests provide the first potentially commercial flow rates achieved in Kenya and provide real encouragement for the Ngamia test.” (Tullow)
- Beschleunigung – es wird ein (weiteres?!) work over rig kommen:
“Given the positive results to date, work is under way to secure further operational capacity to accelerate the exploration and appraisal campaign; this will include a further light rig for flow testing activities, and a 3D seismic capability to appraise the now proven hydrocarbon potential of the Lokichar basin.” (Tullow)
- Permeability:
“The reservoir quality of the Auwerwer sands appears to be significantly better than predicted which was also supported by recent core analysis data with several values over 1 darcy permeability.” (AOI)
- Ngamia-Testing: mindestens 4 flow tests
“With the conclusion of the Twiga South-1 testing programme, the Weatherford-804 rig will move to Ngamia-1A to re-enter the well and perform four flow tests. These tests are expected to deliver rates similar to Twiga South-1.” (Tullow)
“With the conclusion of the Twiga South-1 testing programme, the Weatherford-804 rig will move to Ngamia-1A to re-enter the well and perform at least four flow tests.” (AOI)


Alles wie immer imvho.

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.134.908 von motz1 am 13.02.13 11:07:52

Eine wunderbare Zusammenfassung, motz1

Ein guter Tag für AOI mit unerwartet positiven Test-Ergebnissen...

Insbesondere die 1.860 bbld ohne artifical lift mit 37 Grad (!) API auf Basis einer Permeability von mehr als 1000 md (!) sind großartig und haben für das ganze Basin große Bedeutung!!

(Gruß an Mea_Culpa an dieser Stelle, der ja hier verkündet hat, dass ein Free Flow bei Twiga undenkbar sein...)

Bei PaiPai ist die Interpretation der gewählten Worte schwierig... Mein Verständnis ist jedoch, dass wir eine sehr gute Chance auf eine Gas und Condensate Discovery haben - die fluid Samples, die mit dem MDT zur Oberfläche gebracht werden sollten, können dann eigentlich nur Leicht-Öl sein (API > 40 Grad?)... Jedenfalls ist PaiPai jetzt noch kein Duster - auch wenn das derzeit schon bei manchen Foren so interpretiert wird...

Ich hoffe, AOI gewinnt nun sein positives Momentum zurück...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.136.111 von gimo211 am 13.02.13 14:35:26

Thx gimo.

"Ich hoffe, AOI gewinnt nun sein positives Momentum zurück..."

>>> "Wir" haben zumindest mal wieder einen Preis gewonnen .

--------------------

Africa Oil Ranked Number One on TSX Venture 50

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb. 13, 2013) -Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce that it has achieved the number one ranking on the TSX Venture 50 for 2012. TSX Venture 50 is a ranking of strong performers on the TSX Venture Exchange with measurements including share price performance, market cap growth, trading volume and analyst coverage, etc.

Keith Hill, President and CEO of Africa Oil, commented, "With over 2,200 companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, we couldn't be more proud to be ranked number one overall and also number one in the oil and gas subset. Our new oil discoveries in Kenya have garnered world-wide attention, allowing us to deliver a 342% return over the course of the year and attract coverage from 18 oil and gas analysts. We look forward to another successful year in 2013."
[...]

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=57989762&qm_sym…

[texas2]

Trotz sensationeller und für mich die wichtigste AOI-Neuigkeiten aus O-Afrika ziemlich ruhig hier; bzw. werde ich heute, am 13/02/2013 in Bezug auf AOI ziemlich ruhig mit einem fetten Glücksschweingrinsen einschlafen.

Erste kommerzielle Rate in Kenia: Ich ziehe voll des Respekts meine professionelle Kopfbedeckung vor Tullow und der Lundin Truppe. Chapeau, these lizards can smell oil and gas.

Eine einzelne Bohrung mit solch einem test ist unterm Strich zwar noch immer keine 2 mrd $ oder € wert (weil das Feld bei Öl erst abgebohrt werden muß), aber dieser Test zieht für mich eine sehr solide Unterstützungslinie und sichert nach unten ab. Damit sollte AOI als Ölfirma nicht mehr pleite gehen oder wegen Erfolglosigkeit vom Kurszettel verschwinden können wie unzählige andere Explorer. Damit dh mit dieser Bohrung und dieser Testförderung wird AOI eine E&P Firma und das P bedeutet Produktion=Geld.

Freue mich schon auf die kommenden Bohrungen und Tests...auf noch mehr "E"s die sich in "P"s umwandeln

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.138.701 von texas2 am 13.02.13 23:25:01

AOI wird wahrscheinlich nicht P sondern "förderbare Reserven" sagen weil Lukas Lundin den schnellen Milliarden nicht widerstehen wird können.

[motz1]

Guten Morgen @texas2, das "fette Glücksschweingrinsen" dürfte gestern Abend noch so manch anderer mit dir geteilt haben, auch in Kenia. AOI wird langsam aber sicher solide.

Das Programm für das restliche Jahr -hauptsächlich Konzentration auf das Lokichar-Basin- lässt sich nun deutlich entspannter verfolgen.

Sollte sich LL für die Variante mit den schnellen Milliarden entscheiden würde ich ihm das wohl kaum übel nehmen können, da sollte für uns doch auch ganz ordentlich was abfallen .

----------------------

UPDATE 2-Tullow eyes first commercial oil for Kenya
Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:19am EST

* "First potentially commercial production"
* Still a lot of exploration and appraisal to do
* Shares up 5.2 pct

By Andrew Callus

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Africa-focused oil company Tullow Oil Plc released a set of Kenyan well test results on Wednesday which it said could lead to the country's first commercial production.
[...]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/13/tullow-results-idU…




Davy Research: Tullow Oil
February 13 2013

Exploration news not really news; flow test results from Twiga-South in line with, or ahead of, expectations

On exploration, there were updates on the Sapele-1 and Paipai-1 exploration wells offshore Ghana and onshore Kenya respectively. Although final and conclusive results are still due, current information is that the main target zone in Sapele has not worked and that the Paipai well has hit wet gas/light hydrocrarbons. Our risk-weighted valuation for Sapele-1 and Paipai-1 contributes 5.7p and 3.7p per share respectively to our group valuation of 1469p per share. At Sapele-1, a further 200m of drilling is ahead of target depth. The well has multiple reservoir targets but the primary objective was water wet. The Paipai well has reached total depth and Tullow and its partners are currently trying to sample a narrow zone of interest and expect to be able to report their analysis and conclusions at end February. More upbeat news came from the Twiga-South well onshore Kenya. Flow test results from Twiga-South are in line with, or ahead of, expectations with one zone in the primary Auwerwer sandstone reservoir flowing light oil at 1,860 bopd without artificial lift. A final flow test is being conducted at Twiga-South before the rig moves to the Ngamia discovery to perform four flow tests. These tests are expected to deliver rates similar to Twiga-South.
[...]
http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_B…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_B…

[niki550525]

Tja das ist Börse .
In früheren Zeiten hätte so eine Meldung eine Kurssteigerung von mehr als 20%eingebracht .Der Kursanstieg von Gestern ist schon sehr enttäuscht .
Langfristigen betrachtet werden wir schon zweistellige Kurse sehen,aber das wird wohl noch eine Weile dauern.
Diese Kaufzurueckhaltung im Rohstoffsektor ist aber bei fast allen anderen Aktien zu sehen aber. Es wird auch mal wieder besser,da bin ich voll überzeugt .
Niki

[texas2]

Nach den ersten oil shows und Logs hat der Markt so euphorisch reagiert, dass heute nach einem belastbarem Fördertest AOI noch immer überbewertet ist. Die über 2 MMbbl/d sind noch keine rund 2 Mrd € oder $ wert obwohl so ein Fördertest für mich sehr viel schwerer wiegt als oil shows. Es wird sich aber trotzdem ausgehen, da AOI mit sehr hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit zuätzliche Felder entdecken wird, die sich hoffentlich wirtschaftlich fördern lassen werden. 3000, 5000 oder mehr bbl/d/well , das sind die Zahlen die die Firmen (majors) unwiderstehlich anlocken um AOI zu übernehmen. Ein staatlicher Chinese, Inder etc. sieht das ganze vielleicht ein wenig strategische und sportlicher. Vielleicht überrascht auch ein Araber.
Mit dem Fördertest bin ich ziemlich zufrieden. Also ganz entspannt mit AOI weiter abwarten ...

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.147.243 von texas2 am 15.02.13 18:51:03

2000
2MM hat man eher als Volumen beim Gas

[gimo211]

Texas, es ist nicht diese eine well (die zudem nicht im sweet Spot der Struktur gedrillt wurde) sondern die Tasache, das die Struktur nun von Ngamia bis Twiga South bestätigt wurde und ein erhebliches de-risking für alle insgesamt 8 prospects im Lokichar-Basin erreicht wurde...

Die werden dort mindestens 1, eher 2 Milliarden bbls nachweisen und das entspräche selbst bei konservativen Annahmen (NVP von $5 per bbl) einem Wert von 2,5 bis 5 Milliarden für AOI...

Von den weiteren Basins (South Omo, etc.) noch nicht gesprochen...

Ich erinnere, dass Du auch schon die 300 Mio MK von AOI zu Beginn dieses Threads kritisch beurteit hast...

[texas2]

ja, AOI ist schon keine gewöhnliche auf KW explorierende Firma

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.147.525 von texas2 am 15.02.13 19:52:39

Die Ergebnisse von Twiga-South sind deshalb besonders, da man die extrem positive Permeability vorgefunden hat - 1.000+ md sind einzigartige Reservoir-Qualitäten!!

Der geringe Formationsdruck im South-Lokichar-Basin wird quasi durch exzellenten flow-Bedingungen des Auwerwer-Sandstone kompensiert. Das ist meinen Augen das überraschende und für den Wert des Southerns String of Pearls so bedeutende Ergebnis.

Die Flowrates sind zwar nicht zweistellig bei Twiga-South (mal sehen, ob der letzte noch ausstehende Test nicht auch noch überrascht und wir kumuliert sogar bei vielleicht 4.000 bis 5.000 bbld rauslaufen...) - sie sind dennoch exzellent und die vertikale Größe von 30m net pay wird hier für eine viele Jahre anhaltende Produktion sorgen.

Bei Ngamia lieferte der Auwerwer-Sandstone (früher "upper Lokhonhe") eine 100+ m net pay Zone. Das JV erwartet dort vergleichbare Ergebnisse... Das ist der Grund, warum unsere AOI so wertvoll sind...

Es lohnt hier nochmals ein Blick in die Januar Corporate Präsentation, Seite #7:

Auwerwer Sandstones- PRIMARY RESERVOIR IN LOKICHAR BASIN:
(formerly Upper Lokhone Sandstones)

• 30-100m estimated net pay in Twiga and Ngamia, Net/gross ~30%
• Oil recovered from 10 MDT’s
• Porosities: 23-29% from logs and sidewall cores
• Permeabilities: 6-400md based on sidewall cores and MDT’s

Die DST´s ergaben nun bei Taiga-South 1.000+ md!!! Die Überraschung auch für das JV!


Lower Lokhone Sandstones- SECONDARY RESERVOIR:
• 6-43m est. net pay in Ngamia-1 (faulted out in Twiga S.), N/Gross ~30%
• Oil recovered from 1 MDT
• Porosities: 10-15% from logs and sidewall cores
• Permeabilities: 5-40 md from MDT’s

Indurated & Fractured Clastics- SECONDARY RESERVOIR:
• 796m of gross section in Twiga S., (faulted out in Ngamia)
• Oil shows pervasive over gross interval, oil recovered from 1 zone
• Porosities rarely above 8% in logs, perms. <10md from MDT’s


Ich denke, wir können sehr entspannt auf die nächsten Drillings im South Lokichar Basin schauen.

Nach PaiPai wird dieses Rig zusätzlich in die Ngamia-Region gebracht. Wir haben dann in den Blocks 13T und 10BB zwei Rigs und die nächste well ist Etuko-1 - das prospect, welches früher Kamba hiess. Ein Mega-Drilling.... Ein Treffer hier (ausserhalb des String of Pearls btw.) wäre der nächste Hammer...

Zuvor kennen wir das Ergebnis von Sabisa in Ethopien, welches ein neues Play-Opener für ein neues Basin sein kann...


Ich bleibe dabei - in drei Jahren kostet AOI 50+ Dollar per Share...

[gimo211]

The slides #28 to 31 in the Tullow Corporate presentation re full year result a worth a careful read!
(Many thanks to user motz1 @ wallstreet-online.de; regards mate :o)

http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2012_full_year_re…

…Very interesting information’s and some nice info graphics re our Kenya and Ethiopia acreage…


My takes are:

• Tullow classifies Sabisa-1 and Etuko-1 (the upcoming 10BB drilling, formerly the “Kamba” prospect) as “key trigger wells” for the East African Rift Basins (slide #28)

• Tullow compares their Kenyan and their Ugandan principle exploration strategy and explains their follow up drilling strategy as a scheme (slide #29).

Depending on the degree of success, they have a 7bn bbls scenario for their Kenyan and Ethiopian acreage (just to remember: AOI’s acreage is in fact larger then Tullow’s acreage due to the Ethiopians “Rift Valley Study Block” and Block 9 in Kenya).

• Slide #30 shows the 11 basins in Kenya and Ethiopia and how they are interrelated. Their drilling approach is divided in three “scales of exploration”:
1. Appraising and testing Ngamia and Twiga-S (25 sq km scale)
2. South Lokichar basin drill out towards commerciality (10,000 sq km)
3. High grading multiple basins through wildcat drilling (100,000 sq km)

• Slides #31 explain their strategy for the south Lokichar basin in detail.

The Ngamia success triggered two follow up wells: Twiga-S, which represents the “String of Pearls” along the bounding fault of the basin and Etuko-1 at the flank of the Basin. A success at Etuko would give us the new term: “Prospect cascades”… I like it ;o) … and probably the Ewoi prospect as the follow up drilling with the Sakson PR 5 rig.

Meanwhile the “String of Pearls” comprises 12 (!) prospect and leads and the follow up drilling with the Weatherford 804 rig (after the Ngamia testing) could be at the Etom prospect north of Twiga-S. In addition there is an updip appraisal location (Twiga-S-2) and a downdip appraisal location (Twiga-S-3) at the Twiga-S discovery.



I’m pretty sure they will bring additional rigs to Kenya and Ethopia. They have a very ambitious plan (with over 100 prospects to drill) and I only hope, that Lucas Lundin will not to early put AOI on sale…

In my eyes, AOI will be the exploration company of the decade… very happy to hold! (DYOR and all that...)

[motz1]

User StockBrain hat auf Stockhouse ein in Schweden veröffentlichtes Interview mit James Phillips eingestellt:

- 3-4 Bohrungen in Ethiopia in diesem Jahr (incl. Sabisa), Phillips geht von 3 aus
- Bohrbeginn in Block 8 wohl im Juni (New Age als Operator)
- Adigala-Block ist abseits der Core-Assets: Farmdown angestrebt, derzeit wird kein Geld für Seismic o.ä. ausgegeben
- Das Sabisa-Drilling nähert sich der TD: Tullow will nicht, dass AOI genaue Updates liefert...
- Das PSA für den Rift Valley Study Block kommt scheinbar demnächst
- Ogaden-Blöcke 7/8 könnten von 30 auf 15% reduziert werden
- HRN soll "aufgewertet" werden; Farmdown, neue Assets oder gar ein take over einer kleineren Company werden abgewogen

-------------------------------------

AFRICA OIL WELLS DRILLING 3-4 ETHIOPIA THIS YEAR - BUSINESS MANAGER (Direct) Print
2013-02-18 08:52


ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) Africa Oil plans to drill three to four wells in Ethiopia this year, including the current Sabisa well drilled in the southern part of the country, neighboring Kenya, South Omo.

It says oil exploration company's business development manager James Phillips in an interview with the News Agency Direkt in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

"We drill Sabisa now and then, we are in discussion with the operator Tullow whether to drill one to two wells in the South Omo block where Sabisa located. Since it is a well in Block 8, in the Ogaden area, with operator New Age which we believe will begin by June. Possibly there could be as early as May, but my assessment is that there still lingers into June, "says business development manager.

He continues:

"My best estimate is still that the total of three wells this year, although it could possibly be four."

In the Ethiopian Adigala block, near the border with Somalia and Djibouti, the company does not socialize with any plans to drill.

"No, we have no intentions to drill and we have not committed ourselves to carry out seismic survey either. This block is not a priority for us, we do not like it enough and hope we can bring down our share. Shall we not a partners as part we are probably not in the seismic campaign, "said James Phillips.

As for the ongoing drill again Sabisa is Africa Oil near target depth.

"We are close to the target but Tullow does not like that we accurately commenting on where we are," he concludes.


A final tax, known as a Product Sharing Agreement, the Rift Valley block north of South Omo is near.

"Yes, it's close, it's just formalities left now. Overall, the agreement is very beneficial for us even if the Ethiopian government's share is marginally higher than the previous agreement., It took time to get it together, but it finds probably partly explained in the Prime Minister passed away last year, which meant that it took a long time. "

What is concerned Ogaden license in eastern Ethiopia, blocks 7 and 8, allows James Phillips understand that the company is willing to halve its current 30 percent.

"I can imagine that we could go down to 15 percent," he says.

Generally considered business development manager of the Ethiopian areas where Africa Oil operates in the very secure.

"Security risk is very, very low. Bandit gangs in our area in the country exist more or less not at all. Not even in Somalia, we had some security incidents," he notes.

For Africa Oil's associated companies Horn Petroleum now operates only in Somalia, or more specifically, Puntland, waiting somewhat different times.

"We've drilled a couple of wells in Somalia that was spot on. So we want to have a partner in the Horn while we want to acquire new licenses are likely to be outside the three countries where we operate. Mainly we look, however, other countries in East Africa. But it may also be that we end up in other African countries and even outside Africa. We look at three different approaches to Horn., we can negotiate with governments, pharmaceutical ourselves in others' licenses or we purchase smaller companies sitting on attractive assets but who have difficulty financing their operations, "said James Phillips.


Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N1966…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.152.128 von gimo211 am 18.02.13 08:06:19

Ich habe eine neue Funktion im w : o Editor gefunden: Man kann mittlerweile sogar Bilder hochladen ...

......................
















-----------

Ich denke die Vorletzte Graphik zeigt ganz gut was Tullow unter einem "String of Pearls" und was sie unter "Prospect Cascades" verstehen ...

[gabbo62]

By PETERSON THIONG’O, The EastAfrican

Posted Monday, February 18 2013 at 15:31

Tullow plans 11 More wells in Kenya in 2013

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Tullow-plans-11-more-we…

British oil explorer Tullow plans to drill up to 11 more wells in Kenya this year, the firm announced on Wednesday as it released test results that could lead to the first commercial production.

The firm also plans to carry out up to five well tests to de-risk further basins and to understand the potential scale of the South Lokichar basin in north west Kenya where the Ngamia and Twiga South discoveries are based.

Tullow said tests on the Twiga South well had confirmed commercially viable flow rates —amount of hydrocarbons that can be pumped from a well per day — of 2,351 barrels of oil per day (Bpd), beating analysts forecast of between 1,500-1,800 Bpd. The well encountered 30 metres of net oil pay.

Ngamia, Tullow’s first well in Kenya, made a significant discovery of over 100 metres of net oil over multiple reservoir zones.

“These tests provide the first potentially commercial flow rates achieved in Kenya and give us hope over the potential of the Ngamia-1A well,” the company said.

On the back of these announcements, Tullow saw its share post the highest single day price rise in over one-and-a-half years on Thursday on the London Stock Exchange. The shares jumped 6.4 per cent to $19.54 compared with Wednesday’s closing price of $18.43.

In Uganda, Tullow said four wildcat exploration wells were drilled in EA-1 up to December 2012 to help delimit the ultimate basin potential ahead of potential relinquishments. Riwu-1, Raa-1 and Til-1 did not encounter commercial hydrocarbons. However, the Lyec-1 well encountered oil pay, which is currently under evaluation. A significant amount of outstanding exploration and appraisal drilling activity remains in 2013.

Tullow chief executive Aidan Heavey said: “2012 was a year of major progress for Tullow. We enhanced our business with oil discovery in Kenya, by adding highly prospective new licences in Africa and the Atlantic Margins, refinancing our debt and partially monetising our Ugandan assets.”

Read: Tullow Oil profits dip 3pc to Sh58bn

Tullow said it had reached the total well depth of 4,225 metres in its latest well Paipai-1, although it did not indicate the level of hydrocarbons encountered.

“The well is being cased to enable sampling; we plan to evaluate and report on the conclusions drawn by the end of February,” said Tullow in a statement.

After it completes operations at Paipai, Tullow plans to start drilling the Etuko-1 well in the Lokichar basin.

Analysts say the Paipai well has only a 10 per cent chance of encountering oil, as the geological characteristics of the area where it’s been drilled is seen to support gas rather than oil.

“Paipai is the first modern well to test the potential of the cretaceous play and success would open up a new basin. However, two historical wells drilled nearby were dry and volcanics impair imaging of the Paipai prospect’s closure, making it a high-risk well,” said analysts at Dundee securities.

The discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga South demonstrate substantial oil generation has occurred in the South Lokichar Basin, one of more than 10 Tertiary Rift Basins in the Kenya-Ethiopia acreage, Each of these is similar in size to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda, where more than 2.5 billion barrels of oil have been discovered.

In Uganda, Tullow, CNOOC Ltd and Total presented a joint development plan concept for the Lake Albert Rift Basin to President Yoweri Museveni in July 2012.

A Committee was set up by the Government comprising representatives of key ministries and the three operators to discuss the remaining issues in order to progress the with the Lake Albert Rift Basin development plan with a view of harmonising plans for the development in the first half of 2013, Tullow said adding constructive discussions are ongoing.

[gabbo62]

motz1 und gimo211, vielen Dank für Eure tollen Beiträge.

[Staberhuk]

Quelle: http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/alert-ion/2013/02/19/m…

Somalia stimmt sich auf das Öl ein. Man wollte dort eine Struktur errichten über Gesetzesgrundlagen und zukünftige Behandlung der Energien.

19/02/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1350



SOMALIA

Ministry petroleum team set up

Somalian Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed has just set up his new oil team. On February 17, he officially appointed two foreign advisers who had already been working for his predecessor. (...) [244 words] [€5,2]" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/alert-ion/2013/02/19/m…

Somalia stimmt sich auf das Öl ein. Man wollte dort eine Struktur errichten über Gesetzesgrundlagen und zukünftige Behandlung der Energien.

19/02/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1350



SOMALIA

Ministry petroleum team set up

Somalian Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed has just set up his new oil team. On February 17, he officially appointed two foreign advisers who had already been working for his predecessor. (...) [244 words] [€5,2]

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.158.401 von Staberhuk am 19.02.13 15:09:22

Da lief etwas schief.

Quelle:http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/alert-ion/2013/02/19/m…

In Somalia rüstet man sich zum Öl.
Man wollte mit Hilfe einer international bekannten Beraterfirma gesetzliche Grundlagen und eine vernünftige Energiestruktur schaffen.


19/02/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1350



SOMALIA

Ministry petroleum team set up

Somalian Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed has just set up his new oil team. On February 17, he officially appointed two foreign advisers who had already been working for his predecessor. (...) [244 words] [€5,2]

[abionaut]

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/02/18/ethiopian-rebels-warn-can…

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/18/africa-oil-corp-vanc…

[niki550525]

Es sieht ganz so aus als hätte da jemand über Nacht das Öl geklaut . Der Kurs geht trotz guter Meldung gegen Süden.
Niki

[abionaut]

Sichtweise und Darstellung der ONLF:

http://www.ogadentoday.com/news.php?readmore=7480

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.158.922 von niki550525 am 19.02.13 16:32:05

War eigentlich als Scherz gedacht wusste nicht das dann auch gleich Panik ausbricht.
Mal Spaß beiseite.
Wer meine Beiträge verfolgt, kann sich erinnern, dass ich schon anfang Februar darauf spekuliert hatte, dass das GAP bei 7.20 CAN$ geschlossen würde. Leider hatte der Kurs zu früh gedreht. Maßgeblich war wohl die Erwartung der Tests und da wollte wohl keiner auf dem falschen Fuß erwischt werden.
Trotz Aufwärtsbewegung des Kurses, zeigte der SAR am 12.02. seine Stärke als der Kurs davon abgeprallt ist. Seitdem bewegt er sich auch nach unten.
Man könnte nun darauf spekulieren, dass das gestern ein Sell out war und sich nun der Kurs seitwärts bewegen wird. Allerdings war der Umsatz mit 320 K nichts Aussergewöhnliches. Tippe daher auf gezieltes Abverkaufen um den Kurs in die für Sie richtige Richtung zu bewegen. Sind ja noch genügend short.

Charttechnische Merkmale:
Candlestick - SELL
RSI bei 37,7% im Überverkauften Bereich und somit NEGATIV
SAR -> roter Bereich = NEGATIV
Slow STO -> bei 24,40% im negativen Bereich
MACD nach unten weggekippt -> Negativ
Gestern dann auch noch die MA 50 von oben nach unten durchbrochen und somit ein Verkaufssignal ausgelöst.
Nach unten ergeben sich jetzt folgende Unterstützungen:
7,0 CAN$, 6,70 CAN$ . Auf die gilt es jetzt zu achten !

Grundsätzlich muß man sagen, dass zur Zeit alle Rohstoffaktien gebeutelt werden und zwar heftig. Da kann sich eine aoi auch nicht entziehen. Kurserholungen werden derzeit zum Abverkauf genützt.
Das ist eine Phase, die sich auch wieder ändern wird. Nur wann, kann da keiner sagen. Wichtig dabei ist, dass man seine Strategie nicht aus den Augen verliert und sich im Abwärtstrend in gute Werte positioniert.
AOI ist meiner Meinung nach so einer. Deshalb behalte ich meinen Bestand und Kaufe nach wenn sich die charttechnischen Merkmale verbessern. Hier muß man allerdings auch einen langen Atem mitbringen.
Ich gehe immer noch davon aus, dass das GAP bei 10,45 CAN$ geschlossen wird. Nur wann kann keiner sagen. Vermutlich erst wenn AOI verkauft wird. Das währe allerdings schade, weil es viel zu billig über den Tisch geht.
Dann schauen wir mal was da noch so kommt.
Niki

PS: hoffe mal das ich hier nicht zum Alleinunterhalter werde

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS


February 21, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Announces Twiga Flow Rate of 2,812 bopd

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb. 21, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") announces that the testing program at the Twiga South-1 oil discovery in Kenya has now been successfully completed. The fifth and final Drill Stem Test ("DST") flowed at a rate of 461 bopd bringing the cumulative flow rate up to 2,812 bopd, constrained by surface equipment. With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd.

High quality 37 degree API waxy sweet crude was flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered. The well has been suspended as a potential future production well.

As with DST 4A, a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP) was used to artificially lift at DST 5, whilst DST 3 flowed naturally. Two additional zones were tested in the tight reservoir rock at the base of the well and, as anticipated, both produced at sub-commercial rates but confirmed the presence of movable oil.

These results provide encouragement for the forthcoming testing program at Ngamia-1A where at least four zones are planned to be tested using the Weatherford 804 rig. Testing activities are expected to commence in March and complete by the end of May.

Keith Hill, President and CEO of Africa Oil Corp., commented, "By demonstrating the good reservoir quality of the Auwerwer sands, we take a large step forward in our program to establish a commercially viable oil development project in Kenya. We look forward to the upcoming tests at Ngamia which we believe will also give similar flow rates and provide evidence on the lateral distribution of these key reservoir sands."

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-announces…

[gabbo62]

Hier die Tullow-Version der heutigen News:

Tullow Oil has announced the successful completion of the flow tests at Twiga South-1 with a constrained combined rate of 2,812 bopd from three reservoir zones. Unconstrained, the combined rate has the potential to flow at around 5,200 bopd. In Uganda, the Ondyek-1 exploration well did not encounter hydrocarbons.

Twiga South-1 flow test – Kenya

The testing program at the Twiga South-1 oil discovery has now been successfully completed with a cumulative flow rate of 2,812 bopd, constrained by surface equipment. Tullow previously stated that Drill Stem Tests (DST) 3 and 4A flowed at a cumulative rate of 2,351 bopd and can now announce that the fifth and final DST flowed at a rate of 461 bopd. With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd. 37 degree API waxy sweet crude was flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered and the well has been suspended as a potential future production well. As with DST 4A, a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP) was used to artificially lift at DST 5, whilst DST 3 flowed naturally. Two additional zones were tested in the tight reservoir rock at the base of the well and, as anticipated, both produced at sub-commercial rates but confirmed the presence of movable oil.

These results provide encouragement for the forthcoming testing program at Ngamia-1A, Block 10BB, where four zones are planned to be tested using the Weatherford 804 rig. Testing activities are expected to commence in March and complete by the end of May.

Tullow has a 50% operated interest in the Twiga South-1 well, Block 13T, with Africa Oil holding the remaining 50% interest.

http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/general/new-153551

[Resources]

Africa Oil Executes Rift Basin Area Production Sharing Agreement

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb 21, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp.(TSX VENTURE:AOI)(AOI.ST) ("Africa Oil" or "the Company") is pleased to announce the formal execution of a new Ethiopian Production Sharing Agreement. The agreement covers the 42,519 square kilometer "Rift Basin Area", previously held by the Company under a Joint Study Agreement and referred to then as the "Rift Valley Block".

The Rift Basin Area is located north of the Company''s South Omo Block (please see attached map) and includes the extension of the Tertiary-age East Africa Rift Trend in Ethiopia. The new license is on trend with highly prospective blocks in the Tertiary rift valley including the South Omo Block, and Kenyan Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 13T, and 12A. During the joint study period, the Company completed an airborne high resolution gravity and magnetic survey over the block. In addition, satellite-imaged natural oil slicks were ground truthed, which indicate the presence of an active petroleum system in parts of the block. The Company plans to complete a Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry survey and exhaustive environmental/social impact assessment over the block during 2013.

Africa Oil President and CEO, Keith Hill, stated, "We are extremely pleased to add to our Ethiopian exploration acreage in the Tertiary rift valley trend. With the work we have completed on the block during the joint study period and the discoveries drilled on trend in the Tertiary rift of Kenya, we believe we have significantly added to our highly prospective exploration portfolio."

[gimo211]

Dieser Block könnte sich als das wertvollste Asset von AOI erweisen.... Ein sehr guter Tag für AOI Holders...

[texas2]

5,200 bopd sind gut
nicht sehr gut aber ein gutes gut
ziemlich zufrieden weiter warten

[gabbo62]

Interessanter Artikel heute erschienen bei Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-22/tullow-drills-for-e…

Tullow Drills for Ethiopia’s First Oil in Kenyan Extension

By Eduard Gismatullin - Feb 22, 2013 12:42 PM GMT+0100

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW), the U.K. explorer that found Kenya’s first crude a year ago, is about to find out whether the resources extend into neighboring Ethiopia, a nation dependent on agriculture that’s yet to discover any petroleum.

Tullow, Africa Oil Corp. (AOI) and Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) plan to complete their Sabisa well in western Ethiopia’s South Omo Block this quarter.

“The first discovery would be big news,” said Martin Mbogo, Tullow’s manager for Kenya, where its Ngamia well struck oil in March. “That would be historical for Ethiopia.”

Tullow, a London-based explorer, is targeting East Africa’s Tertiary Rift, a geological fault that’s yielded oil in Uganda as well as Kenya. For the company, an Ethiopian find may prove a new oil province. For the country, evidence of crude could help the government curb energy imports and diversify an economy that relied on coffee for about a quarter of export earnings in 2011.

“We are importing every drop of oil and gas,” Ethiopian Mines Minister Sinknesh Ejigu said last week. “We want to change this game.”

Licenses won by Tullow and Africa Oil in Kenya and Ethiopia cover an area almost as large as the North Sea. Only 11 wells have been drilled there so far, compared with more than 2,400 wells in the sea. While gas has been found in eastern Ethiopia, the partners are focusing on the western Omo region in the hope it will prove the extension of the petroleum system from Kenya.

‘Huge Well’
“The structure is almost identical to what we see at Ngamia,” Africa Oil Vice President of Business Development James Phillips said in an interview in Addis Ababa. “This is a huge well for Ethiopia. This is really a key well.”

The country needs energy to support economic growth. The East African nation still ranks 211th in terms of gross domestic product per capita, behind Mozambique and ahead of Togo, according to Central Intelligence Agency data.

“A hit at the well would effectively bookend the string- of-pearls play from Ngamia to Sabisa,” Brian Gallagher, a London-based analyst at Investec Bank Plc, wrote in a report this month. “Sabisa represents a trigger well with the potential to open up a new basin.”

The government has a right to 10 percent of the South Omo Block should the companies discover oil, Gallagher said. The Sabisa well is targeting about 140 million barrels of oil resources, he said, citing Tullow estimates.

Africa Oil’s Phillips, who served as chief operating officer until Sept. 9, declined to comment on the progress of the well, citing disclosure regulations.

The Omo region is a “strange” area, he said. “A place like Omo is frankly the end of the Earth. It hasn’t had any attention from oil and gas exploration ever.”

Omo Wetlands
The project partners are in talks with Kenya and Ethiopia to allow their contractor, China’s BGP Inc., to conduct seismic studies in the border area covering the Omo River wetlands. The border is currently closed and it takes days to transport equipment on dirt roads to cross at the nearest checkpoint.

“It could be one of most prospective, interesting areas,” Phillips said. “It’s going to be a tricky area to work,” which is similar to the Mississippi River delta in Louisiana.

The Kenya-Ethiopia frontier basin may hold as much as 10 billion barrels of oil and gas resources, Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a January note. Tullow and Africa Oil plan to drill about 11 wells in the area this year, of which three will be in Ethiopia.

The area is “10 times bigger than Tullow’s Uganda acreage,” Nomura said. The South Omo block is “one of the golden blocks of the Tertiary Rift,” the brokerage said.

Tullow advanced by 1.2 percent to 1,233 pence as of 10:14 a.m. in London trading, while Africa Oil climbed by 0.9 percent to 47.40 kronor in Stockholm.

[gabbo62]

Die Shorties haben nach wie vor die Gewalt über den Kurs.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
1,479,020 15/Feb/2013
1,494,414 31/Jan/2013
1,376,335 15/Jan/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Sehr, sehr gute News in dieser Woche.

Twiga-1 bringt voraussichtlich 5200bopd an einer Stelle, die nicht der sweet spot der Struktur ist.
Tullow sagt dazu nur: "With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd. 37 degree API waxy sweet crude was flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered and the well has been suspended as a potential future production well." http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137&newsid=833
Einige hier haben über 20 Monate auf diesen Satz gewartet...

Der ehemalige Rift Valley Study Block heißt nun Rift Valley Area und ist nunmehr offiziell "unser". Es wird nicht verwegen sein auf Marathon als Partner zu tippen (Absichtserklärung für Zusammenarbeit bezgl. weiteren Ethiopian-Assets wurde bereits mit dem ersten Farmout bekannt gegeben), ich könnte mir hier aber durchaus auch eine Konstellation mit 2/3 Partnern vorstellen. KH sollte sich vor Interessenten kaum retten können.


Demnächst gibt es die Ergebnisse zu PaiPai und Sabisa. Sabisa würden den SoP schlagartig um viele Kilometer ausdehnen. Zudem geht es geht an das Testing von Ngamia (auch nicht optimal platziert innerhalb der Struktur, dennoch net pay >100m).

Morgen ist der letzte Montag im Februar - "Sabisa-Montag"? Fingers crossed .

[motz1]

Kleine Sammlung an Pressebeiträgen der vergangenen Tage:

................

East Africa oil product market draws fierce competition

Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:59am EST

* Oil products supply market worth $15 billion a year
* SOCAR, Phillips 66 eye stepping up sales to region
* Region has only one functioning refinery
* Trafigura, BP, Reliance already well established

By Humeyra Pamuk and Emma Farge

DUBAI/GENEVA, Feb 21 (Reuters) - East Africa's emerging oil products market has sparked intense competition between traders hunting for better profits to bolster tight margins in Europe and the Middle East.
[...]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/africa-oilproducts…

............

AOI ist momentan bei energy-pedia auf der Startseite präsent:

Ethiopia: Africa Oil executes Rift Basin Area Production Sharing Agreement
Africa Oil Corp has announced the formal execution of a new Ethiopian Production Sharing Agreement. The agreement covers the 42,519 sq km 'Rift Basin Area', previously held by the Company under a Joint Study Agreement and referred to then as the 'Rift Valley Block'.
[...]

http://www.energy-pedia.com/ bzw. http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/ethiopia/new-153558

............

TradeInvest Africa (Cape Town)

Africa: Investment Opportunities in Oil and Gas

1 February 2012

High oil prices are driving growth in exploration for in Africa, and the positive growth projections for Southern and East Africa's oil and gas sectors will likely be a key driver of growth in the regions.
[...]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202011142.html

............

Interessant: Die NOCK hat sich gemeinsam mit den Indern auf die Ausschreibung zum Pipeline-Bau beworben:


Kenyan Govt Oil Firm Joins Regional Pipeline Battle
By Humphrey Liloba, 18 February 2013

Nairobi — The proposed East African regional oil pipeline inched closer to realization with the Kenyan government owned oil firm, the National Oil Corporation (NOCK) partnering with the Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) to submit interest in the deal.
[...]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201302190250.html

...............

3 East African Oil Companies to Consider

Wednesday February 20, 2013, 4:15am PST

By Adam Currie - Exclusive to Oil Investing News

Exploration companies are constantly on the lookout for new and unexplored oil potential, and many are now venturing to less traditional hunting grounds to tap the next groundbreaking play.
[...]

http://resourceinvestingnews.com/50675-3-east-african-oil-pl…

[motz1]

Videobeiträge.

-----------------------

Die Chefin (!) der NOCK spricht über die company und deren angestrebte Entwicklung, sie streift auch die Thematik zum angestrebten JV im Pipeline-Bau mit den Indern.





.............

Galib Virani von Afren über East Africa: "... and a potentially transformational oil discovery onshore Kenya...".




.............

Eine Podiumsdiskussion zum Thema "The prospects of the East African Energy Market". Zunächst ein Abriss von Gallup (Marktforschungsinstitut) zu den Ländern Äthiopien, Kenya, Tansania und Somalia. Anschließend folgt die Diskussion, danach werden noch Fragen der Zuhörer beantwortet. Hinweis: Dauert 1:50h, hat durch die Podiumsteilnehmer aber inhaltlich einiges zu bieten...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.985.530 von motz1 am 05.01.13 14:49:47

Diese neue Upload-Funktion ist hilfreich.

-----------

[motz1]

Der Tullow-Webcast zu den FY-Results ist sehr interessant und toll zu navigieren; über die slides kann man direkt zu Kenya/Ethiopia (ab 45:00) springen und die zugehörigen Erläuterungen von Angus McCoss zu den Folien sehen.

Im Schlussbereich sind noch Fragen aufgenommen, davon beschäftigen sich Q 1, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 direkt mit Kenya/Ethiopia.

In Frage 16 z.B. sagt McCoss zu Paipai: "It looks like we've discovered a petroleum system there."



Hier geht es zum Webcast: http://www.media-server.com/m/p/aw42ciie (Einmalige Anmeldung notwendig).
Sollte der Link nicht funktionieren: http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=241, dann rechts auf "View the web cast" klicken.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.181.702 von motz1 am 25.02.13 12:06:40

Nachtrag:
Um das Thema "Basin flank plays" einordnen zu können ist die Frage 12 interessant: Das Größenpotential für "Basin boundary margin" und "Basin flank plays" bezeichnet McCoss als noch nicht abschätzbar, derzeit geht Tullow von 50/50 aus...

[Staberhuk]

Hallo @motz1
Ich denke, dass das mal gesagt werden muss: Deine Beiträge sind prima. Es steckt auch viel Mühe und Arbeit drin. Danke.

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.181.852 von Staberhuk am 25.02.13 12:32:58

... Da kann ich mich nur anschließen, was motz1 hier leistet kann man gar nicht hoch genug bewerten!!

Andere (Börsenbriefe, Blocks, Finanz-Gurus etc.) verdienen mit einem Bruchteil der Kompetenz und des Informationsgehaltes richtig gutes Geld - motz1 stellt sein know how hier vollkommen kostenfrei und öffentlich zur Verfügung - wer clever ist, schafft damit personal wealth ...

... Also zumindest häufiger mal den "grünen Daumen" drücken, wenn hilfreiches und neues geboten wird. Das ist das Minimum an Anerkennung, was man geben kann...

[motz1]

Vielen Dank @Staberhuk, gimo211 and all . Ihr seid beide lange dabei und beiteiligt euch, dann kann ich mit ein Bisschen Faktenrecherche auch den ein oder anderen Beitrag leisten. Es freut mich wenn ein paar hilfreiche Infos dabei sind, bedenkt aber dass ich Laie bin und bleibe.

Wir haben bei AOI die letzten Monate gemeinsam ziemlich auf die Mütze bekommen, die letzten News stimmen mich sehr zuversichtlich dass sich dies in absehbarer Zeit wieder ins Positive drehen sollte. Das wäre uns allen zu gönnen.



Wenn es heute auch keine Sabisa-News gab - es ist immerhin eine neue Corporate Presentation online : http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-02-25_CP.pdf.

[Staberhuk]

Zur Präsentation:
Vergleicht bitte mal Folie 8 Ngamia1 mit Folie 10 Twiga-South1. Die endgültigen Daten aus Ngamia1 kommen ja noch, aber sie werden uns sehr, sehr gefallen.

[Ralph8]

@motz1

...gibt es auch bezüglich Horn Petroleum news

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.186.230 von Staberhuk am 26.02.13 09:23:48

Ja, das sehe ich auch so. Hier sieht man die slides mal untereinander:




Sehr gut ist die erhöhte Permeabilität von bis zu 3.000md, bisher war von bis zu 1.000md die Rede.

Man darf das zwar wohl nicht ohne weiteres auf Ngamia übertragen, aber es stimmt sehr optimistisch. Ich denke dass ist der Grund, dass sie bei Ngamia nun den Zusatz "high permeability" hinzugefügt haben.

Bei Twiga ging man bisher von 29 bis 30 deg. API aus, nun sind es 37. Bei Ngamia von 30, neuerdings von ">30".
Weshalb sie da doch um ein paar degree daneben liegen ist mir nicht klar, aber 37 deg. API sind imho "very nice".

Ich muss AOI an der Stelle Respekt zollen, es ist klasse wie sie in den Präsentationen bei den Schemata mit Farben arbeiten: Von rot (unfertig/konzeptionell) nach grün (abgearbeitet und erfolgreich/bestätigt), wir schreiten voran...


Die entsprechenden slides aus der Januar-Präsentation zum Vergleich:




Ich frage mich, ob sie bei Ngamia-1 nicht mit einem side-track recht praktisch und günstig die untere, nur gestreifte payzone testen könnten?


@Ralph8
Ich denke HRN ist ein Geduldsspiel. M.E. hat sich nichts neues ergeben, am ehesten noch das Interview mit James Phillip. Er sagt dass man auf der Suche nach weiteren Assets für HRN wäre, in welcher Form auch immer und regional nicht begrenzt. Laut NR sucht man einen Partner der das working programm, weitere Seismic in Dharoor und Bohrung in Nugaal, finanziert oder zumindest Teile davon.
Auf lange Sicht wird HRN aber auch wieder bessere Zeiten sehen, da bin ich zuversichtlich.


Wie immer alles imvho.

[Ralph8]

...danke für deine Einschätzung

[gabbo62]

Election worries put new Kenya oil, gas investment on hold
/2013


Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:53pm IST

* Commercial reserves not yet proven in Kenya

* Some explorers in wait-and-see mode

* Investors want more clarity on taxes, infrastructure

By Kelly Gilblom

TURKANA BASIN, Kenya, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Potential investors in exploring Kenya for oil and gas are holding back to see the outcome of next week's presidential election, worried about the potential for instability and for policy changes under a new leadership.

Huge discoveries in eastern Africa from Mozambique to Uganda have attracted bids from international oil companies for exploration and drilling rights.

Kenya's sector is the least developed, with medium-sized companies heading the search for commercial reserves. These firms are more vulnerable than majors to the risk of post-election violence, which five years ago knocked the $35 billion economy flat and forced political rivals to form a rocky coalition.

With President Mwai Kibaki barred from a third term, Kenya's forthcoming change in leadership is also creating concerns that the government may alter contractual terms. Promising discoveries have given east African governments an advantage in negotiations.

Canada's Simba Energy estimates its block in northeast Kenya sits atop 1 billion barrels of oil, but it needs investors to help stump up the cash.

"I really, really want to drill in 2013. I was prepared to commit to 2D seismic but had to consider feedback from some of our potential farm-in partners," Hassan Hassan, Simba's chief operating officer said in an interview.

"We've decided to wait, but believe me it pains me to wait," he added.

The uncertainty is affecting new money. Explorers already licensed in Kenya are locked into spending agreements and still releasing capital.

In another development that raises the spectre of a trade embargo, a front-runner in the race, former Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, faces trial for crimes against humanity linked to the election violence in 2007/2008.



HUGE POTENTIAL

If Kenyatta is elected, western governments will face a dilemma over how to balance a principled stance with diplomatic, security and trade ties with Kenya.

The United States, without naming Kenyatta, cautioned "choices have consequences". Officials in other Western capitals have said any talk of economic sanctions is premature, but some investors are anxious.

"You want to go in when you think there is certainty. If sanctions were to be placed on Kenya, I don't think we would survive two years," said Don Riaroh of Nairobi-based Bahari Resources. The small firm, which is already exploring in the Indian Ocean's Comoros archipelago, has targeted Kenya.

The stakes are rising. British explorer Tullow Oil this month announced Kenya's first potentially commercial flow rates, taking it a step closer to production.

Tullow's venture partner, Africa Oil, estimates there are 23 billion barrels of oil beneath two onshore basins that extend from southern Ethiopia to the southwestern tip of Kenya.

If proven, that would make Kenya the 13th-largest holder of oil reserves in the world, above the United States. At today's oil prices the reserves would be worth $2.6 trillion, more than 60 times Kenya's 2012 gross domestic product.

Two additional basins have hardly been explored.

Kenya's next president will probably oversee multi-billion dollar investments and new legislation to govern production agreements and how to spend hotly anticipated petrodollars.

In his manifesto, Kenyatta says 5 percent of energy revenues will go into local communities and another 5 percent will fund renewable energy projects. Oil will "benefit all Kenyans", the manifesto says, but gives no details such as tax structures.

The manifesto of his rival, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, does not even mention oil. He has stated at campaign rallies in Turkana that he would seek to avoid the so-called "oil curse" that has befallen African countries, where the wealth has not been used to fight poverty.

Some oil players are concerned that both presidential hopefuls have not laid out more detailed plans for infrastructure, taxation and the handling of oil proceeds.


TERMS MUST STICK

"I was surprised that oil didn't get brought up in the debate, really surprised," Africa Oil Chief Executive Officer Keith Hill said, referring to Kenya's first ever televised presidential debate on Feb. 11.

If Kenya is to produce and export oil, it will need a pipeline network stretching hundreds of kilometres to link inland oil fields to the coast. It will need a new refinery to supply the domestic market from its own crude. The existing facility in Mombasa is dilapidated and runs only at partial capacity.

And while there are laws that set out how oil revenue is spent, they are old and vague. The 13-page Petroleum Act became law in 1986. Back then, few expected a serious oil find.

Nine oil companies operating in Kenya including Tullow, Anadarko and Africa Oil have formed the Kenya Oil and Gas Association. It wants the government to legislate faster.

"We're very keen on fiscal stabilization. It's very key that investors know terms are going to be fixed. Investors and oil companies don't like the idea that terms will be changed after the fact," Hill said.

They point to neighbouring Uganda, where commercial production is finally slated for 2017 after being delayed almost a decade by rows over tax and infrastructure projects, and hope Kenya avoids such setbacks.

The major oil companies are poised to come in once the small-caps do the dirty work, they say.

"Barely a week goes by when I don't get a call from one of the super-majors who say: 'How do we get in?'," Hill said.


http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/kenya-elections-exp…

[Staberhuk]

Das sind die 5 Bewerber mit den unterschiedlichsten Herkünften und mit den unterschiedlichsten Connections in Kenya.
Quelle:www.africaintelligence.com/insiders/


Raila Odinga,

president in waiting

6 chapters 24 connections


The Odinga family

The Upper Hill gang

The spin doctors

Former companions in arms

Odinga’s "reloaded" team (...)


After having come close to beating Mwai Kibaki in the December 2007 presidential election, Raila Odinga looks to be favourite to win the next one, the first round of which is set to take place in March 2013. Son of historic opposition leader Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he joined the opposition to the Daniel arap Moi regime but later rallied to it. His early political career was marked by imprisonment and exile and he fell only just short of election to Kenya’s supreme office in the 2007 election. The result of the election was widely contested and resulted in several months of inter-communal violence.




Samuel Kamau Macharia,

a media magnate

5 chapters 14 connections


The "Royal family"

RMS collaborators

Long-standing friends

Late night callers

Biography


Samuel Kamau Macharia reigns today over a media empire. As the owner of a television channel and a number of local language radio stations, he is one of the key players in the Kenyan media sector and one of the richest people in the country. His Royal Media Services (RMS) group is one of three major companies controlling the media in Kenya, along with the state-controlled Kenya Broadcasting Corporation and the Aga Khan’s Nation Media Group.




Uhuru Kenyatta,

scion of a powerful family

5 chapters 22 connections


The Kenyatta clan

The alliances

The political advisers

His St Mary's school friends

Biography


As the son of Jomo Kenyatta, father of the Kenyan nation and founder of a veritable dynasty, Uhuru Kenyatta has, theoretically, the resources to match his ambitions, thanks to the vast family fortune amassed by his father and managed by his younger brother Muhoho. Nevertheless, his efforts to obtain the Kenyan presidency have until now always failed. (...)




Chistopher Kirubi,

the DJ businessman

4 chapters 10 connections


His partners in influence

The disciples of the Kirubi business school

Radio acolytes

Biography


Among Kenya’s most influential businessman, one stands out for his eccentricity and the sheer scale of his fortune. Christopher Kirubi, who is septuagenarian and a DJ, is Kenya’s second wealthiest man after Uhuru Kenyatta and the 31st richest man in Africa, according to US magazine Forbes in 2011 : his fortune was estimated at $300 million. (...)


Jimnah Mbaru,

Nairobi’s Warren Buffet

6 chapters 16 connections


The TransCentury connection

The Muthaiga Golf Club Crowd

The Equity Bank-Britak trio

The president's think tank

The Mbaru generation (...)


Jimnah Mbaru has been head of the Dyer & Blair investment bank, which today is highly prosperous, since 1983. He also has a substantial portfolio of shares in other flourishing companies. Born in 1947, he figures among the richest businessmen in Kenya and his success has earned him such nicknames as “the Warren Buffet of Africa” or “the godfather of investment banking”.(...)

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.167.084 von niki550525 am 21.02.13 06:53:06

Ich denke das es mal wieder an der Zeit ist, dass ich was über die Charttechnik schreibe.
Candelstick ist übergeordnet auf SELL
Slow STO ist auf dem Rückwärtsgang und ist ebenso rot.
MACD im roten Bereich
RSI bei 42,53 %

Fazit:
Momentan sind die Indikatoren im roten Bereich.
Somit sehe ich momentan eher eine Seitwärtsbewegung, obwohl Fundamental alles im grünen Bereich ist. Die Daten sind mehr als sehr gut
7,00 CAN bietet momentan eine gute Unterstützung. Momentan, weil derzeit der Kurs wieder sehr stark manipuliert wird. Die Umsätze lassen einfach zu wünschen über. Dh. es herrscht Käuferstreik. Warum das so ist kann ich nicht sagen und wenn ich mir die Fundamentaldaten ansehe, kenne ich kaum ein Unternehmen das eine ähnlich gutes Chancen /Risiko Verhältnis hat.
Ich habe immer noch meinen Bestand und werde eher zukaufen als verkaufen.
Mal sehen was die Zeit so bringt. Ich denke, dass irgendwann die Cancen entdeckt werden. Dann werden sich wieder die Massen auf die Aktie stürzen, und wir sind dann schon drin
Gruß
Niki

[motz1]

News

...........................


Mar 1, 2013 - 02:08 ET Africa Oil: Paipai-1 Well Temporarily Suspended for Future Evaluation

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 1, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or "the Company") announces the temporary suspension of the Paipai-1 exploration well in Kenya for ongoing evaluation.

The well, located in the Marsabit County of Kenya Block 10A, was drilled to a total depth of 4,255 metres and successfully logged. The well was drilled to evaluate a large structural closure of Cretaceous age in the Anza Basin.

Light hydrocarbon shows were encountered while drilling a 55 metre thick gross sandstone interval. This sandstone is overlain by a 200 metre thick Cretaceous source rock which forms an effective regional top seal and yielded oil and gas shows throughout the section while drilling. Attempts to sample reservoir fluids were unsuccessful and the hydrocarbons encountered while drilling were not recovered to surface. It was not possible to test the well at this time due to the unavailability in country of testing equipment capable of handling the higher reservoir pressures encountered at this depth. The well has consequently been temporarily suspended pending further data evaluation.

After suspension operations have been concluded at Paipai, the rig will move to the South Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB and drill the Etuko prospect in the undrilled basin flank play. The move is expected to take 3 months.

Tullow has a 50% operated interest in the Paipai-1 well, Block 10A, with Africa Oil holding 30% and Afren holding the remaining 20%.

Keith Hill, President and CEO, commented, "We are very encouraged by the results of the Paipai well which appears to demonstrate a working petroleum system and indicates that the Anza Basin has the makings of a viable Cretaceous hydrocarbon play. This result has positive implications not only for our Block 10A acreage, but also in Block 9 where we are preparing to drill a similar, albeit shallower, prospect with our partner Marathon. If this result is confirmed by testing, it would be a strong addition to our already proven Tertiary rift play to the west."
[...]

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.201.142 von motz1 am 01.03.13 08:24:21

Wenn der Kursabfall eine Reaktion auf diese Meldung sein sollte, haben viele die Meldung nicht richtig interpretiert.
Nur weil kein entsprechendes Gerät zur Verfügung steht, um die hohen Drücke in der jetzigen Tiefe richtig messen zu können, wurde die weitere Behandlung vorerst unterbrochen.
Da verkauft man doch nicht.

[abionaut]

Ich weiß nicht ob ich damit richtig liege, doch es scheint wohl eher die Gemengelage zu sein, die den Kurs nach unten drückt.

-Amerika will sich unabhängig vom Ölmarkt machen via Fracking und die Ölbestände wachsen ja auch tatsächlich
-Die Saudis beliefern China mit extra Öl, weshalb kein Kostendruck am Markt entsteht
-Krieg in Mali
-Rebellen in Äthiopien
-leichter Vertrauensverlust durch das Private-Placement im November
-mal wieder die Fiskalklippe heute in den USA (bin mal gespannt ob sie sich doch wieder in letzter Minute einigen)
-anstehende Wahlen mit eventuellen anschließenden Unruhen und Ungewissheiten bezüglich neuer Regierung am Montag
-und Europa (u.a. Berlusconi) tut sein Übriges.

Bei der Gemengelage macht sich eine Verschiebung der Testergebnisse einfach nicht gut. Ich bleibe nichts desto trotz zuversichtlich und gebe kein Stück her auch wenn es zur Zeit sehr schmerzhaft ist und positive News scheinbar einfach verpuffen.

[abionaut]

Meinte natürlich anstehende Wahlen in Kenia ;-)

[DermitdemBrokertanzt]

Laßt den Kurs ruhig noch ein wenig nach unten rutschen, bei aoi ist mir das ganz recht dann kann ich noch mal nachlegen! AOI ist mein bestes Invest auch wenn ich in einem Anflug von Frust mal sauer war wie das pivat placement durchgezogen wurde, hatte nicht alle Fakten und konnte es nicht richtige einordnen! Ich habe mich auch nicht korekt über den Comapany Maker hier im Board geäußert, war wirklich nicht gut von mir muß mich echt entschuldigen! Der CM ist für mich seid Jahren der Beste BB den man zur Zeit bekommen kann und AOI ein Top invest mit einer Unternehmensführung die die Aktionäre immer und auf bestem wege informiert siehe Hompage AOI! Die Marktlage ist einfach sehr schlecht und man (ich) sollte einfach alle Emotionen beisete schieben.
Ich bleibe long und nochmals sorry...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.203.686 von DermitdemBrokertanzt am 01.03.13 16:10:20

Ja, es ist nicht leicht, zu seinem Investment zu stehen, wenn der Kurs immer weiter abrutscht, obwohl positive Nachrichten über den Ticker gemeldet werden.
Diese Bohrung wurde mit einer Erfolgsquote von 10% angegeben und man war Erfolgreich. Was macht der Kurs.....er rutscht ab. Ja gehts noch würde man da aus dem Bauch sagen.
AOI zeigt ein hervorragendes Arbeitspotential und wird mit einem Kursabschlag belohnt.
Tja, das ist nun mal Börse. Einfach Irrational....
Wie Du geschrieben hast ist es nicht einfach in dieser Situation. Meine Gold und Silberaktien schmieren ebenfalls ab. Das hat einfach Methode
Ich bin, so glaube ich jedenfalls anhand der veröffentlichten Daten bei meinen Aktien, gut positioniert. Es werden auch andere Tage kommen, wo viele erkennen werden welchen Wert wir da haben.
Ich glaube an das Management und deren Professionalität, die sie hier an den Tage stellen und freu mich schon darauf, wenn von anderen Seiten Interesse bekundet wird. Das wird kommen da bin ich mir sicher.
Fakt ist, wir haben in eine Perle investiert, wir wissen das und andere müssen das erst lernen
Trotzdem schönes WE auch wenn der Kurs die derzeitigen Meldungen nicht honoriert.
Niki

[gimo211]

More work needed on Paipai wildcat




Kenya: Tullow has suspended the Paipai-1 well as it carries out further evaluation
Josh Lewis 01 March 2013 07:49 GMT

UK independent Tullow Oil has announced the Paipai-1 exploration well on Block 10A, in Kenya's Marsabit County, will need further evaluation after only encountering light hydrocarbon shows.
The wildcat was drilled to a total depth of 4255 metres to evaluate a large structural closure of Cretaceous age in the Anza basin.

Tullow said the well encountered light hydrocarbon shows while drilling a 55-metre gross sandstone interval but added that it was unsuccessful in several attempts to sample the initial reservoir fluids and no hydrocarbons were recovered to the surface.

As a result it said the well had been temporarily suspended pending agreement on future evaluation options.

“As we were unable to recover the hydrocarbons encountered whilst drilling, the well needs additional assessment,” Tullow's exploration director, Angus McCoss, said.

“We will now carefully evaluate all the data and review the available technical options, which include possible flow testing and reservoir stimulation. From a frontier exploration perspective, we can already conclude that this part of the Anza basin has the makings of a viable Cretaceous hydrocarbon play.”

Prior to drilling Tullow estimated the Paipai prospect to hold prospective resources of 121 million barrels, based on a report from its own independent resource evaluator.

Tullow holds a 50% operated interest in the Paipai-1 well, with Africa Oil holding 30% and Afren holding the remaming 20% interest.

Following the completion of suspension operations at Paipai-1 the rig will be moved to the South Lokichar basin in Block 10BB to drill the Etuko prospect. Tullow said the move was expected to take about three months.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1318750.ece

[sheriffxl]

Hatte gehofft,dass wir nicht unter 5 Euronen rutschen.Leider keine Kohle grad zum Nachkaufen.

[abionaut]

Kenia: Wahl verläuft überwiegend friedlich

http://www.afrikaecho.de/2013/03/kenia-wahl-friedlich-ergebn…

[skipper2004]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.209.442 von sheriffxl am 04.03.13 08:07:02

Bin bei 6 € viel zu hoch eingestiegen...aber jetzt nachkaufen ? Würdest du das echt tun ?

mfg
skipper

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.211.898 von skipper2004 am 04.03.13 17:07:47

Hi skipper,
Du hast mich zwar nicht persönlich angefragt, aber ich will Dir gerne Antworten.
Grundsätzlich, und das wirst Du schnell erkennen,wenn Du Dich mal ein wenig einließt, ist das ein gutes Investment.Das ist schon mal sehr wichtig für einen Einstieg oder Zukauf
Die Wichtige Frage ist allerdings der Zeitpunkt. Ein gutes Timing ist allerdings auch Glücksache oder Du verstehst was von Charttechnik.
Charttechnik läßt sich aber aus meiner Erfahrung nicht bei jeder Aktie anwenden.
Nun zu Deiner Frage: Ja, ich würde Nachkaufen bzw. ich tue das sogar
Allerdings und jetzt sind wir beim Timing, sollte man noch etwas abwarten.
Die letzten Meldungen waren gut bis sehr Gut, wurden aber vom Markt nicht aufgenommen.Ist aber nichts Aussergewöhnliches, da das seit geraumer Zeit fast bei allen Rohstoffaktien stattfindet.Es wird auch mal wieder anders werden, nur kann den Zeitpunkt keiner voraussagen.
Kurz-, oder Mittelfristig gesehen bilden wir eine klassische W - Formation aus. Dazu muß der Kurs noch etwas zurückkommen. Das kann durchaus auch noch bis 6 CAN$ gehen.
Alle Indikatoren sind im roten Bereich und es gibt noch kein Anzeichen dass sich da in kürze was verändert. Ich selbst beobachte den Chart täglich und berichte auch ab und zu hier.
Wenn dann mal die positiven Meldungen vom Markt aufgenommen werden, oder sich die Charttechnik positiv gestaltet, haben wir ein tolles Erholungspotential. Alleine die 3 offenen GAP's werden den Kurs wieder auf Höchststand von 10,50 CAN$ bringen.
Hoffe ich habe zu Deinem Verständnis beigetragen
Niki

[sheriffxl]

Vor allem jetzt,da Paipai wahrscheinlich kein Duster ist.Auf jeden Fall eher Nachkaufen als Verkaufen.Ansonsten ist dem Posting von niki nichts hinzuzufügen.Gruss an alle,dat wird schon.

[skipper2004]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.212.294 von niki550525 am 04.03.13 18:16:59

hey Niki

erstmal vielen dank für deine ausführliche antwort. Is ja nicht so, dass ich neu bei AOI bin...hab sie schon das eine oder andere mal getradet. Und bin dann eben bei 6 € wieder rein...was eben zu früh war....jetzt werd ich folgendes machen:
1) mit traden is schluss
2) ich wart noch eine weile ( wie du ja auch schon erwähntest ) und leg bei . naja...bei 4 - 4,50 € in etwa nach.
3) dann mal sehen

mfg an alle

skipper

[abionaut]

Vize-Regierungschef Kenyatta vor Wahlsieg in Kenia

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2013-03/kenia-praesidente…

[motz1]

Zitat von gimo211: “As we were unable to recover the hydrocarbons encountered whilst drilling, the well needs additional assessment,” Tullow's exploration director, Angus McCoss, said.

“We will now carefully evaluate all the data and review the available technical options, which include possible flow testing and reservoir stimulation. From a frontier exploration perspective, we can already conclude that this part of the Anza basin has the makings of a viable Cretaceous hydrocarbon play.”

Das sagt immerhin Tullow's McCoss. Wenn man nun den zusätzlichen Ausführungen von AOI glauben schenkt, dass das zum Testen notwendige technische Equipment im Lande nicht verfügbar ist, und zudem die enormen Druckverhältnisse in der Tiefe berücksichtigt scheint das ziemlich plausibel und recht ermutigend. Was Tullow so alles aus 9% CoS rausholt...


Was allerdings der Markt aus den vergangenen News gemacht hat ist schon kurios. Twiga fließt besser als erhofft (btw, gimo211 war in Beitrag 2107 mit "...kummuliert sogar vielleicht bei 4.000 bis 5.000 bbld..." einmal mehr spot on), es wurden hervorragende Permeabilitätswerte gemessen, Rift Valley Area-PSA ist da, PaiPai scheint schon ziemlich absehbar ein intaktes Petroleum-System mit intaktem Seal nachzuweisen,...


Die Wahlen scheinen bisher weitestgehend friedlich abzulaufen soweit ich das verfolgen konnte, ich hoffe dass es so bleibt und auf ein zügiges und klares Ergebnis. Wenn dann im April auch noch die Haltefrist für die neuen Aktien aus dem PP abgelaufen ist sollte -bei einem Explorer in dieser Phase- m.E. keine große externe Unsicherheit mehr zu verzeichnen sein.


Die Sabisa-Ergebnisse sollten in den nächsten 3-4 Wochen kommen, so zumindest Davy Research am 01.03.:
"[...]
Sabisa-1 potentially more valuable than it looks
The Tullow-operated Sabisa-1 well is currently drilling in Ethiopia with a result due in the next three to four weeks. While the Sabisa Tertiary prospect offers incremental resources (the company's estimate for gross resources is 61 mmbbl), the exploration well on the prospect is technically very interesting. It is a basin probe which could demonstrate the delta play works in the Omo sub-basin. The delta play has the rewarding play in the Butiaba area in Uganda and has yielded the 300 mmbbl Jobi-Rii field, the largest single discovery to date in Uganda's Lake Albert Basin. Nevertheless, Sabisa-1 is high risk given that it is the first well to be drilling in the Omo sub-basin.
[...]"
http://www.davyuk.com/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equit…

[gabbo62]

In Schweden sind dreckige Kräfte am Werk, die mutwillig den Kurs unten haben wollen. UBS ist seit Tagen damit beschäftigt, mit unlimitierten Kleinstverkäufen zu drücken.

[gabbo62]

Short-Bestand zum Monatsende Februar nochmals angestiegen.
Da scheinen sich welche sehr sicher zu sein.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
1,563,408 28/Feb/2013
1,479,020 15/Feb/2013
1,494,414 31/Jan/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Hi gabbo62,

der Kursverlauf ist m.E. rational nicht mehr erklärbar, deine Beobachtungen könnten zutreffen. Für mich ist das eine Frage der Zeit. Warten wir noch die Haltefrist aus dem PP ab und sehen dann mal weiter...

..................................................

Weiß jemand mehr zu dem hervorgehobenen Abschnitt, zum oil shale-Potential im Grenzgebiet zu Eritrea?

.........................

Ethiopia: A Potentially Golden Block on East Africa’s Tertiary Rift

By Editorial Dept | Wed, 06 March 2013 19:35

Get ready for the first-ever exploration in Ethiopia’s Omo region—and it could be VERY BIG. After all, it’s an extension of the massive finds in Kenya.

Ethiopia has the misfortune of being entirely landlocked as a result of the 30-year war with neighboring Eritrea. Still, oil and gas exploration here is advancing must faster. It has less potential—and no offshore prospects—which should make it less attractive than Eritrea, but foreign oil and gas companies favor it nonetheless.

In late February, UK-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW)—the same company behind the massive discovery in Kenya in early 2012—announced it would finish drilling its first well in western Ethiopia’s South Omo Block by the end of this quarter. The foray into Ethiopia was based on geography. This block is considered an extension of Tullow’s Kenya concessions and it all is part of East Africa’s Tertiary Rift (which includes Uganda). If they find oil in this well it would be the first discovery in Ethiopia. The well (Sabisa) belongs to Tullow, Africa Oil Corp. (AOI) and Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO).

There have already been some gas discoveries in eastern Ethiopia, but the target here is potential oil in the country’s west—as part of the same oil system found in Kenya. What are the chances of striking oil at Sabisa? Well, the explorers say the structure is virtually identical to the structure of the Ngamia well, the site of Tullow’s massive find in Kenya. According to Tullow, Sabisa is targeting some 140 million barrels of oil resources.

The terms would be fairly attractive, with the Ethiopian state taking 10% of any discovery. Tullow and partners plan to build a total of 11 wells in what is labeled the Kenya-Ethiopia Frontier Basin. Three of those wells will be in Ethiopia.



Ethiopia also has an estimated 3.89 billion tons of oil shale (enough to produce about one trillion barrels of oil, roughly) in Tigray State, on the border with Eritrea. It is also believed to have around 100-120 million tons of oil shale in the Delbi.

Ethiopia has also recently build its first drone, which could be used for surveying oil and gas prospects (not to mention the military applications for monitoring the insecure borders with Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya and South Sudan).

Another reason Ethiopia has been favored by foreign investors—aside from its geological connection to Kenyan oil and gas prospects—is its security partnership with the US, both in regards to Somalia and Yemen. And this is something that Eritrea eyes warily.

By. Oilprice.com Analysts

http://oilprice.com/js/common/tinymce/jscripts/tiny_mce/plug…

[motz1]

KH ist in Schweden auf Promo-Tour - credits to artie520/stockhouse.

- Heute 18:30 Uhr
- Morgen zum Lunch
http://www.remium.com/Kalender/2013-03-08/Africa-Oil-Lunchpr…

Mal sehen ob die Präsentation wieder im Netz auftaucht...

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.227.123 von motz1 am 07.03.13 19:04:44

Some Outlines of Part one



Houndtrader2
3/7/2013 7:24:42 PM | | 174 reads | Post #32291095Rate thisclarity
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Okay, took some time and jotted down some what I thought was important information.

They will be drilling double the wells this year for the same price as last year.

They are paying for drilling overheads and costs, so will be more efficient.

They will have 6 rigs by third quarter

They have had 3 successes,2,are VERY commerical

1-still uncertain,must get proper testing equipment, in to test because of high pressure

Tullow and AOI,very happy with the Ngamia and Twiga

Timelines will not always be followed, so don't expect anything to be completed if they say a certain time or days,as problems in drilling at any time could occur.

Happy about Puntland,and not happy with the share price suffering,And not giving up on Horn. They hit three major events Charge,reservoir,and seal, They didn't hit the trap.We will hear something in the next couple of months.

Marathon is paying 100% on three blocks going into 2014,so risk is off

Africa Oil was offered $400 million in FInancing,and hopes he's not sorry later he turned it down, and took 232 Milion,and proud of the money raised, but not happy with the stock price.

He said when the stock was at $10.00 we only had an estimate of reserve,now that we have hit 3 discoveries we are trading at $7.00,and he''s struggling with that.

Big boys that were in Africa years ago, are realizing now, they made a mistake and want back in, AOI, has told them come back in two years,once they have discovered more oil in this huge Basin.

Lundins, don't want to sell the company tooooo early,They may not

They could sell in two years,or produce themselves, it depends.Or they can bring in a Shell or Exon for partners,and go into production with the big boys that want in.

Tullow believes their is 1-3 billion Barrels of oil in Ngamia and Twiga Basins,and they need 500 Million to add a pipeline and they think they have 300 Million in Ngamia alone, so they feel they could be half way there.

Twiga, with all the pay zones could be up to 5000 bopd and kh happy with that. Many Reservoirs are not included in their reserves

Twiga 1 Very Possible they could have 100 Million bopd in source rock because the stain is filled throughout.Very high pressure rocks.

Just to add My opinion Please the guy with the bad cough,don't sit next to the Microphone.

Maybe someone can add more, that is all I had time to write down


Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…


der Ton ist diesmal nicht besonders gut aber vielen Dank an den Menschen, der es aufgenommen und ins Netz (youtube) gestellt hat.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.228.320 von texas2 am 08.03.13 07:22:55

Many thx, texas2!

................

Hier ist noch der youtube-Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTwIRQlOUZY

Ich komme leider erst am Wochenende dazu mir die Teile anzuschauen, die Notes von Houndtrader habe ich überflogen, die hören sich positiv an...

[abionaut]

Geposted am 03.08.13 von freddahl auf bullboards:

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) Africa Oil hopes to present results on the Ethiopian well Sabisa in late mars. It said oil exploration company's CEO Keith Hill at a shareholders' meeting in the Ethiopian thursday evening. license where Sabisa is Africa Oil has an interest 30 percent, where Tullow Oil is the operator with a 50 percent share. 'If we find oil in Sabisa should the value of our company could double, "commented vd.I mid-February, however, stated Keith Hill to Sabisa results were to be expected around the end of February. The news now lets wait for at least a month, he explains: "We drilled about 100 meters per day, but then we started to get well control problems and then we started to lose circulation as well ended up in imbalance., We were practically stationary for around 16 days and possibly we will drill bit slower now late. But we should be able to come down to total depth at the end of March, but I would not be surprised if it lingers into April, "says Keith Hill to News Agency Direkt. in the Kenyan Well Paipai judge him that it will flow tested sometime during the second half of this year. "Sometime during the second half of this year, it will be," said han.Africa Oil believes that the drilling on the Kenyan well Etuko can start early of May and the results possibly can be expected towards the end of june. same block as Etuko is Africa Oil's first oil discovery, Ngamia. the test flows for just Ngamia considered the be reported around the beginning of May, according vd. is concerned, the Kenyan presidential election, where counting is in progress and where Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta lead so far against his main rival, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Kieth Hill believes that investors generally prefer Raila Odinga the winner. This then Uhuru Kenyatta awaiting trial in the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the ICC, in the middle of april because of his alleged role in the unrest that followed the last presidential election when more than 1,000 people lost their lives. "I think investors would Odinga preferable because Kenyatta have the indictment against him. assessment is still that it will require a second round before a winner can be conditional, "says Keith Hill. second round is expected to be held on 11 April, which is the same day on which the indictment Kenyatta addressed by the Court in Haag.Henrik Smith [phone]Nyhetsbyrån Direct
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.228.526 von motz1 am 08.03.13 08:44:23

Die Präsentation hat neben vielen bekannten Dingen auch wieder ein paar Neuigkeiten enthalten.

Part 1:
- Drilled 3 wells, had 3 successes
- 2 very commercial, PaiPai still a bit unclear whether it’s commercial or not

Part 2:
- Pretty confident that all of these prospects here are going to work. Tullow drilled 8 of these Basin Bounding plays in Uganda an all of them where successes. (Bezogen auf Lokichar Basin, SoP)
- Namenswechsel der Leads/Prospects sind von der Regierung gewollt
- PaiPai: We know we found some light oil or gas condensate there. We believe that reservoir is filled with hydrocarbons. Don’t know if it’s commercial. Very high pressure 7200psi.

Part 3:
- Testing results of Ngamia early May
- Etuko: Lieblingsprospect von AOI, wohl das größte im Basin mehrere follow ups
- Sabisa: Most important well this year. Little more than half way down. If this works it opens up a vast number of new plays. We personally believe that if we find oil there (Sabisa, Omo), the value of our company should double over night.
- Marathon als Partner für RBA! (11:00) Sie bezahlen 100% für FTG (April) und Seismic (2. Jahreshälfte) und bekommen 50% am RBA.


Für das Ngamia-Testing wurden Pumpen mit größerer Kapazität losgeschickt, ob die allerdings rechtzeitig eintreffen ist offen.
KH ist hinsichtlich Paipai sehr bullish. Er bezeichnet es neben Twiga und Ngamia bereits als Discovery, dabei ist offen ob Gas oder light oil oder beides. Das sind gute Zeichen für das Cretaceous-Rift...

Dass Marathon 50% am RBA bekommt ist mir neu (zumindest wurde es meines Wissens bisher nicht von der Company mitgeteilt), in etwa einem Jahr sollten wir schon eine ganz gute Idee von möglichen Leads haben ...

[nicolani]

na, tullow scheint tatsächlich redeverbot erteilt zu haben!

[motz1]

Eine Reihe recht aktueller und interessanter Infos sind in einem Nomura-Report zum Thema East-Africa zu finden. AOI wird gecovert und daher auch intensiver beleuchtet, das pdf umfasst insgesamt immerhin etwa 60 Seiten ...
http://www.team-incursion.co.uk/brellis/ea.pdf

So finde ich z.B. die Graphik zum Explorationsfortschritt von Tullow in Uganda interessant. Tullow brauchte 3 Jahre und 30 Bohrungen um auf 600mmboe zu kommen - das könnte in Kenya sowohl schneller als auch mit weniger Bohrungen geschehen...



Danke für's Hochladen an brellis/hotcopper!

[motz1]

dat_51or/investorshub hatte bei Sophia nachgefragt ob das GM aufgenommen wird - siehe da, Sophia wird es vorschlagen...


---------------------

Shareholder meeting June 3rd.

Sent an email to Sophia this am. Got a pleasant, prompt reply:

Good afternoon!

Our shareholder meeting will be held on June 3rd here in Vancouver at 9:00 for Horn and 10:00 for Africa Oil at the Fairmont Vancouver Hotel. Will you be able to come up for it?

That’s a good idea to record the presentation – we didn’t get into the habit of doing that because it used to be so costly – but I imagine that’s changed now. The presentation itself though is on the website.

We have a big shareholder meeting in Sweden and a big one in Canada each year – I’ll request that the upcoming Canadian one get recorded.

There’s not too much to report on Horn at this time. We are looking forward to resuming our work program in Puntland. Being Puntland everything takes so much longer – but we hope to start the seismic in the second half of this year followed by drilling. Ideally we would like to have an additional partner join us before that. By the way, Shabeel wasn’t a duster – what we saw there is what gave us the encouragement to continue working in Puntland.

Best regards,

Sophia

[gabbo62]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-15/cradle-of-mankind-o…

Cradle of Mankind Offers Kenyans Three Centuries of Oil: Energy
By Eduard Gismatullin - Mar 15, 2013 11:30 AM GMT+0100

Kenya’s Great Rift Valley, a 450- mile long volcanic trench ripped open by shifting tectonic plates, is known as the cradle of mankind for the million-year- old remains of human forebears discovered there.

Oil drillers say the area also holds a string of fields that could make East Africa’s largest economy a major energy producer. The U.K.’s Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) and Canada’s Africa Oil Corp (AOI). found crude at two wells last year and now plan as many as 11 more test wells in 2013. The valley could yield 10 billion barrels, Tullow estimates, enough to supply Kenya for three centuries or the U.S. for about 18 months.

The Next Big Oil Patch Eduard Gismatullin/Bloomberg
Kenya’s Twiga well produced the nation’s first commercial oil earlier this year.

The discovery puts Kenya at the center of East Africa’s emerging oil industry. Uganda will soon start to produce the oil it discovered starting in 2006. Tullow and Africa Oil are drilling in Ethiopia. And South Sudan, the world’s newest nation and an established oil producer, is looking for new export routes that would bypass the country it broke away from. All this oil would probably be piped to Kenya’s coast.

With the continent’s oil industry centered on Nigeria in West Africa, East Africa has been largely overlooked. Of the more than 30,000 wells drilled in Africa, fewer than 500 were in East Africa, according to Afren Plc (AFR), an oil explorer active in the region.

“There was a giant under-explored hole on the map,” Africa Oil Chief Executive Officer Keith Hill said in an interview in Nairobi. “Now the world has woken up to East Africa. I’ve never seen a basin of this magnitude.”

Boost Economy
Kenya imports all its oil, so securing a domestic energy supply and becoming a hub for area producers would boost an economy forecast to grow 6 percent this year. Officials in Nairobi are proposing a $5 billion plan to build a network of pipelines to a terminal on Kenya’s Indian Ocean coast. Tankers would then ship the oil to customers in China, India, and other Asian countries.

“The interest of this country is to fast-track this process,” said Martin Heya, commissioner for petroleum.

Tullow and partners Total SA (FP) and Cnooc Ltd (883). are examining plans to build a pipeline from their 1-billion-barrel fields in Lake Albert in Uganda for export through Kenya. The Democratic Republic of Congo is also reviewing plans to join the eastbound pipeline from its part of Lake Albert.

“Certainly Kenya will become a regional oil sector hub in the next 10 to 15 years,” John Small, chief executive officer of the Eastern Africa Association, said in a phone interview. “It’s a huge task.”

Ethiopian Well
Tullow and Africa Oil are drilling the Sabisa well in Ethiopia’s part of the Great Rift Valley. Like Kenya, the country has no history of oil production. It has already discussed pipeline projects with its southern neighbor, Ethiopian Minister of Mines Sinknesh Ejigu said in an interview.

Production in Kenya itself remains three years off. The Rift Valley fields are in a relatively underpopulated part of the country. To move a rig to the Great Rift Valley site takes 230 individual truckloads of equipment driving on dirt roads, Africa Oil said. Supplies must be flown in from Nairobi, two hours away.

Workers are guarded by Kalashnikov-carrying policemen in an area where cattle rustling can escalate into gun battles between tribes.

“We had to stop the seismic crew for a day,” said Africa Oil Vice President James Phillips. “They were shooting at each other, not at us, but the guys on the seismic crew had to stop and lay down on the ground. There were a few bullets flying.”

Presidential Elections
On a national level, this month’s presidential election in Kenya appears to have passed without the violence that left 1,100 dead in 2007’s voting and would have threatened investment. While outgoing Prime Minister Raila Odinga plans to challenge Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory in court, analysts don’t expect widespread disturbances.

Outbreaks of violence are “a very, very low risk,” Clare Allenson, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said in a phone interview.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange’s All-Share Index have risen about 22 percent this year as investors welcome the peaceful election. Kenya can offer a qualified local workforce and manufacturing capacity, which can partly meet demand from the oil industry, said Martin Mbogo, Tullow’s manager for Kenya, where its Ngamia well struck first oil last March.

“Kenya is a big driver, it’s really a financial engine,” Mbogo said in an interview in Nairobi.

[niki550525]

Tja, dann mal wieder was von der Charttechnik - Front.
Alle Indikatoren sind noch im roten Bereich.
Der Umsatz ist mickrig. Daher können die Shortis , die sich an die Charttechnik halten, den Kurs gut nach unten drücken.
Die letzte Aufwärtsbewegung hat bei 7,42 CAN$ sein Ende gefunden. Ab da ging es Bergab.Widerstand war hier MA 50, der nicht nachhaltig überwunden werden konnte.
Denke mal das das nächste Ziel bei 6,50 CAN$ sein wird. Sollte der Widerstand da nicht halten kommt der nächste bei 6,0 CAN$.
Sieht somit gut für die Leute aus, die nochmal Günstig rein wollen.
Sollten meine anderen Aktien gut laufen, werde ich mich von diesen trennen und bei AOI einsteigen.
Ist schon verrückt, dass wir bei Gerüchten und Vermutungen einen Kurs von mehr als 10 CAN$ hatten und heute, wo die Unsicherheit weg ist einen mickrigen Kurs von 6,6x haben.
Ihr werdet sehen es kommen wieder andere Tage. Da werden die Umsätze steigen und jeder will Aktien von AOI haben. Unser Glück ist... wir sind schon drin :-)
Niki

[skipper2004]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.268.771 von niki550525 am 18.03.13 21:51:20

und heute, wo die Unsicherheit weg ist

also anscheinend ist die Unsicherheit doch nicht weg, sonst wäre der kurs ganz woanders...drückungen hin oder her.

Bin selber in AOI investiert...aber hab im moment nicht den mut ( oder das wissen ), nachzulegen.

mfg
skipper

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.277.479 von skipper2004 am 20.03.13 16:58:05

Hi Skipper,
es hat nicht nur was mit Sicherheit oder Unsicherheit zu tun. Es hat auch hier was mit Timing zu tun. Als damals die Unsicherheit herrschte, war in diesem Sektor ein Hippe. Alle kauften Rohstoffaktien wie wenn es bald keine geben würde und dies nährte auch den Kurs.Derzeit sind Trader am Werk die sich nicht nach Fundamentaldaten, sondern ausschließlich nach Charttechnik handeln. Das kann man gut an den Umsätzen sehen. Wenn man letztes Jahr anschaut,da sind Umsätze von 1 Mio Stück in CAN gehandelt worden. Heute gerade mal 2 - 300 000.
Nun ist es etwas anderes, mann weis was man hat aber es interessiert momentan keinen so wirklich. Denn wenn Du dir andere Rohstoffaktien anschaust, wirst Du sehen dass alle seit Jahresanfang erheblich verloren haben. Momentan gibt es Perlen zu Schnäpchenpreisen. Auch AOI ist so eine.
Wichtig ist den Wert eines Unternehmens zu kennen. Die Zeit wird es dann schon richten. Es kommt auch wieder eine andere Zeit, wo die Werte erkannt werden.Auch Übertreibungen wird es geben. Das nächste mal nach oben :-)
Ich habe soeben bei Tradegate mir nochmal 600 Stück zu einem Preis von 5,13 € gekauft.
Bisher bin ich immer ganz gut gefahren, wenn ich in der Abwärtsbewegung eingekauft und mich in der Aufwärtsbewegung von diesen Stück wieder getrennt habe. Da hilft mir auch immer die Charttechnik.
Gestern hat die Unterstützung bei 6,50 CAN$ gehalten.
Noch sind die charttechnischen Signale nicht auf Grün gesprungen, aber das Risiko noch einen Rückschlag bis auf 6,00 CAN$ zu bekommen halte ich für gering.Es gibt keine schlechten Nachrichten, die diesen Kursrückgang rechtfertigen würde. Dementsprechend wird der Kurs extrem reagieren, wenn wieder Kauflaune aufkommt.
Bei SAR von derzeit 7,03 CAN$ ergibt ein klares Kaufsignal. Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit bis wir den Stand haben.
Soll nun keine Kaufempfehlung darstellen, sondern meine Meinung und die Begründung dazu.
Niki

[skipper2004]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.278.109 von niki550525 am 20.03.13 19:08:39

Vielen dank für die ausführliche Antwort Niki

mfg
skipper

[Rattogo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde von CloudMOD moderiert. Grund: SPAM

[gabbo62]

Die Shorties scheinen sich noch sicher zu fühlen.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
1,460,613 15/Mar/2013
1,563,408 28/Feb/2013
1,479,020 15/Feb/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Am 20.03. hielt Robert Eriksson (IR AOI) eine Präsentation: http://www.redeye.se/webcast/exploration-production-seminar-…. Leider alles auf Schwedisch, die Slides sind wohl die der aktuellen Präsentation. Danke an Warnado1/iii.


Am 26.03. sollen laut Financial Calendar die Jahresergebnisse veröffentlicht werden.
Die Hauptversammlung findet am 03.06. statt.
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/FinancialCalendar.asp

Mal sehen was die neue Woche sonst noch bringt...

[Sdrasdwutje]

AOI mit fetten Volumen 11% plus, weiß jemand was ?
offiziell gigts keine News

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.296.251 von Sdrasdwutje am 25.03.13 16:14:53

Hallo Sdraswutje,

die letzten Tage ging es ohne news in homöopathischen (Volumen-)Dosen nach unten, vllt. hat sich gerade mal wieder ein Insti entschieden nachzulegen.

Was ansteht und täglich fällig ist sind die Sabisa-News. Wenn das die Ursache ist, wäre das wohl die Meldung des Jahres für AOI. Ich mag es aber erst glauben wenn es zu lesen ist, ohnehin wäre dann vom Volumen her m.E. noch ein Tacken mehr zu erwarten.

Fingers crossed!

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.296.455 von motz1 am 25.03.13 16:28:06

Hi, heute sehen wir was ich mit druck auf dem Kessel gemeint hatte. Ich vermute mal das im Vorfeld mal wieder einige Gerüchte die Runde machen. Da der Kurs heute so stark anzieht, werden sich die Sports eindecken müssen.Das treibt den Kurs dann auch noch weiter nach oben.Leider haben wir bei Eröffnung ein Aufwärtsgab gewissen .
Mal sehen wie der Markt damit umgeht .
NIKI

[nicolani]

all in!!!!

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.298.119 von niki550525 am 25.03.13 19:07:48

Tullow hat seinen Full Year Report zwischenzeitlich auch veröffentlicht: http://www.tullowoil.com/files/reports/ar2012/files/pdf/annu…

Inhaltlich kann ich nichts entdecken, was wir bisher nich ohnehin schon wussten. Die Zusammenfassung zu East Africa beginnt auf Seite 64. Es gibt allerdings ein paar nette Impressionen .

Titelbild: The Weatherford Rig 804 during drilling operations on the Twiga South-1 well, onshore Kenya.





Paipai in action:



Basins:



Seismic in Äthiopien:

[motz1]

Afren hat seine FY Results bereitgestellt - hier geht es zum webcast http://www1.axisto.co.uk/webcasting/investis/afren/2012-full…


Ab slide 23 geht es um East Africa, bei der Marke 18:00 bzw. slide 24 wird Paipai angesprochen: "...they found light hydrocarbons over a 50m intervall in the lower cretaceous..." und dass es definitiv weitere Tests rechtfertigt, es aufgrund der Abgelegenheit und des hohen Drucks aber einige Zeit dauern kann bis es soweit ist.

Cheers to TRINDERM/iii.

[motz1]

Mar 26, 2013 - 17:30 ET Africa Oil 2012 Financial and Operating Results -------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 26, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(NASDAQ OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil", "the Company" or "AOC") is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the year ended December 31, 2012.

•Following the significant light oil discovery at Ngamia-1 exploration well in Block 10BB, the Company and its partner moved the rig 22 kilometers to drill the Twiga South-1 exploration well in Block 13T (Kenya) which is on trend with Ngamia-1. Twiga South-1 successfully encountered 30 meters of net oil pay in three Auwerwer sandstone intervals analogous to Ngamia-1. The Company and its partner performed a DST on five intervals at Twiga South-1. The DST on three Auwerwer sandstone intervals resulted in a cumulative flow rate of 2,812 bopd, constrained by surface equipment. With optimized testing equipment, these flow rates are anticipated to have increased to a cumulative rate of approximately 5,200 bopd. Two deeper tests were also completed on the tight reservoir rock at the bottom of the well, and despite reconfirming the presence of movable oil, both zones produced at sub-commercial flow rates. The well has been suspended as a potential future production well. The rig has now been moved to Ngamia-1 where testing operations on five to six zones have commenced.

•The Ministry of Energy in Kenya has been provided with the Twiga South-1 testing results, which accompanied a formal Notice of Discovery under the terms of the Block 13T PSC. Following this Notice of Discovery, the Ministry of Energy has agreed to the Tullow proposal, as operator of Blocks 10BB and 13T, to carry out a combined exploration and evaluation program over a defined Area of Interest ("AOI") including all of the mapped prospects and leads along the basin bounding fault on the western edge of the Lokichar Basin. The basis of the AOI approach is to adopt a basin-wide approach to concurrently explore and evaluate the area as opposed to undertaking well-by-well appraisals for each discovery well. This basin-wide approach, with regards to the AOI, is mutually agreed to be the most efficient and quickest approach to moving the exploration and evaluation work program forward towards reaching a commercial threshold of reserves required to justify any large scale oil development.

•During December 2012, the Company completed a non-brokered private placement issuing an aggregate of 30 million common shares at a price of CAD$7.75 per common share for gross proceeds of CAD$232.5 million. The Company paid a finder's fee of CAD$8.3 million in cash on the private placement.

•The Company and its operating partners on Block 10A (Kenya) spud the Paipai-1 exploration well in September 2012. Paipai-1 was drilled to a total depth of 4,255 meters. Light hydrocarbons were encountered while drilling a 55 meter thick gross sandstone interval. Attempts to sample the reservoir fluid were unsuccessful and the hydrocarbons encountered while drilling were not recovered to surface. The Company and its partners were unable to test the well at the time due to the unavailability in country of testing equipment capable of handling the higher reservoir pressures encountered at this depth. As a result, the well has been temporarily suspended pending further data evaluation.

•The Company and its partners selected Sabisa-1 as the first drilling location in the South Omo Block (Ethiopia). Sabisa-1 spud in January 2013 and is currently drilling.

•In Puntland (Somalia), the Company, through its 44.6% ownership interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation ("Horn"), completed site restoration at both Shabeel-1 and Shabeel North-1 wells and demobilization from Puntland has been completed. While the Company was disappointed that the first two exploration wells in Puntland did not flow oil, the Company remains highly encouraged that all of the critical elements exist for oil accumulations and based on this encouragement, the Company and its partners have entered into the next exploration period in both the Dharoor Valley and Nugaal Valley PSC's which carry a commitment to drill one exploration well in each block by October 2015.

•The Company completed a farmout transaction with Marathon Oil Corporation ("Marathon") during the fourth quarter of 2012 whereby Marathon acquired a 50% interest in Block 9 (Kenya) and a 15% interest in Block 12A (Kenya). In accordance with the farmout agreement, Marathon paid the Company $32.0 million in consideration of past exploration expenditures, and has agreed to fund the Company's working interest share of future joint venture expenditures on these blocks to a maximum of $25.0 million. The Company has retained a 20% working interest in Block 12A and a 50% working interest in Block 9.

•The Company completed a farmout transaction with New Age (Africa Global Energy) Limited ("New Age") during the fourth quarter of 2012 whereby New Age acquired an additional 25% interest in the Company's Blocks 7 & 8 (Ethiopia), together with operatorship of Blocks 7 & 8 and the Adigala Area (Ethiopia). In accordance with the farmout agreement, New Age paid the Company $1.5 million in consideration of past exploration expenditures. The Company has retained a 30% working interest in Blocks 7/8.

•The Company continues to actively acquire, process and interpret 2D seismic over Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 12A, 13T and South Omo with three seismic crews currently active.

•In first quarter of 2013, the Company executed a PSA for the Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia. Located north of the South Omo Block, the Rift Basin Area covers 42,519 square kilometers. This block is on trend with highly prospective blocks in the Tertiary rift valley including the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, and Kenyan Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 13T, and 12A.

•Africa Oil ended the quarter in a strong financial position with cash of $272.2 million and working capital of $237.7 million as compared to cash of $109.6 million and working capital of $90.2 million at December 31, 2011.

Keith Hill, President and CEO, commented, "Africa Oil is very encouraged with the results of our first two exploration wells in the Lockichar basin. Our improved financial position as a result of the non-brokered private placement and the farmouts completed in the fourth quarter of 2012 will enable the Company to drill and test multiple wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill multiple additional potential basin-opening wells across its vast East African exploration acreage."

2012 Financial and Operating Highlights
[Anm.: Teil aus Darstellungsgründen entfernt]


Outlook

The Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The focus of these rigs in 2013 will be to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill potential basin-opener wells in the Turkana and the Chew B'hir basins in the tertiary rift play within Ethiopia. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

The Company and its operating partner in Block 9 in Kenya are currently planning to drill the Bahasi-1 exploratory well. This well will be drilled on a large anticlinal structure targeting tertiary and cretaceous sandstones where six billion barrels of oil was discovered along trend in Sudan in a similar geologic setting. A follow-up well is also being considered towards the end of 2013 in Block 9. The Company and its operating partners in Blocks 7/8 in Ethiopia are currently planning to drill a well to appraise reservoir characteristics of Jurassic carbonates on the El Kuran oil accumulation. The main focus of this well is to establish commercial rates with acidizing, fraccing and horizontal sidetracks being considered.

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

[motz1]

Zitat von motz1: The rig has now been moved to Ngamia-1 where testing operations on five to six zones have commenced.

Interessant. Das Ngamia-Testing läuft also bereits. Damit haben wir m.E. neben Sabisa einen weiteren möglichen Grund für den gestrigen Kursanstieg. Zudem spricht AOI nun vom Test von 5-6 Zonen, bisher waren es 4-5...

Zitat von motz1: •The Ministry of Energy in Kenya has been provided with the Twiga South-1 testing results, which accompanied a formal Notice of Discovery under the terms of the Block 13T PSC. Following this Notice of Discovery, the Ministry of Energy has agreed to the Tullow proposal, as operator of Blocks 10BB and 13T, to carry out a combined exploration and evaluation program over a defined Area of Interest ("AOI") including all of the mapped prospects and leads along the basin bounding fault on the western edge of the Lokichar Basin. The basis of the AOI approach is to adopt a basin-wide approach to concurrently explore and evaluate the area as opposed to undertaking well-by-well appraisals for each discovery well. This basin-wide approach, with regards to the AOI, is mutually agreed to be the most efficient and quickest approach to moving the exploration and evaluation work program forward towards reaching a commercial threshold of reserves required to justify any large scale oil development.

Dadurch dürften Planung und Umsetzung der Öl-Infrastruktur deutlich beschleunigt werden...

Zitat von motz1: Outlook
The Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The focus of these rigs in 2013 will be to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill potential basin-opener wells in the Turkana and the Chew B'hir basins in the tertiary rift play within Ethiopia. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

Die Strategie liegt also weiterhin in der Konzentration auf das Lokichar Basin und damit im Nachweis der kommerziellen Nutzbarkeit...


Müsste ich heute einen Tip auf den Grund des gestrigen Kurssprungs abgeben, würde ich auf einen frühen Ngamia-Test-Erfolg setzen.

Wie immer alles imvho.

[gimo211]

Wie immer, großartige Analysen von motz1!!

AOI = "Area of Interest" im zweiten Absatz - eine Abkürzung, die zu Verwirrung führen könnte...

Das heißt, wir sehen dort nun einen Approach zunächst die wildcats (es sind ja inzwischen ohnehin eher Appraisal Wells) der verschiedene prospects und leads zu drillen und nicht die bisherigen Discoveries in ihrem vollem Ausmass zu bestimmen. Also Ngamia und Twiga Appraisal Wells werden später gebohrt - zunächst die anderen prospects. Man hat für diese Strategie nun ein approval seitens der Kenianischen Behörden. Gut so. Und man ist sich seiner Sache wohl auch sehr sicher...

4 Rigs im Tertiary Trend bedeutet, dass noch in diesem Jahr ein weiteres neues Rig von Tullow für Kenia addiert werden wird. Wir werden also permanent Drillen und Testen und der Newsflow ist vermutlich auch immens... Zumal wir ja noch ein fünftes Rig gemeinsam mit Marathon in Block 9 haben werden und ein sechstes im Adiga-Block in Ethiopien mit New Age.

Wir schauen mit AOC (um jede Verwechslung zu vermeiden) auf spannende Wochen (Ngamia Flow Rates, Sabisa-1 results) Monate und Jahre... I Like it...

[motz1]

AOI hat mittlerweile die Homepage auf Vordermann gebracht, es wurden die Dokumente die im Zusammenhang mit dem Jahresbericht stehen veröffentlicht. Darin finden sich sehr detaillierte und hilfreiche Informationen .

- Annual Report
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2012AR.pdf

- Management's Discussion and Analysis
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2012YE_MDA.pdf

- Annual Information Form
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2012_AIF.pdf

- Year End Financials
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2012YE_FS.pdf

- Management Information Circular
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2012_MIC.pdf


Hier geht es zur Übersichtsseite: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/CFR.asp


In den Dokumenten sind auch viele Übersichten und Infos z.B. zu den PSCs enthalten. Hier z.B. eine Zusammenfassung zu den Kenya-PSCs:

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.315.823 von gimo211 am 27.03.13 16:36:44

Das Thema "AOI=Area Of Interest" wurde von der Presse aufgegriffen:

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Tullow gets nod to fast-track commercial viability of Kenya’s oil
By Paul Wafula

Nairobi, Kenya: Tullow Oil has now changed tact in the evaluation of local oil deposits. The firm’s new move is meant to speed up the determination of the viability of commercial oil deposits.

The firm will now carry out a combined exploration and evaluation programme over Turkana’s Lokichar Basin – a departure from the well-by-well analysis.

This is after the British oil explorer’s received an approval from the Government to combine the exploration and evaluation programme in the Basin. The firm had submitted this proposal to the Ministry of Energy when filing its latest testing results and a notice of discovery.

Deposits justification
The change of tact according to the proposal is to speed up the exploration and evaluation work and reach a commercial threshold of reserves required to justify any large-scale oil development.

The revelation is contained in a report prepared by the Africa Oil Corporation, a Canadian oil and Gas Company presented to its shareholders on Wednesday. Africa Oil and Tullow Oil are prospecting for oil in the Basin in a joint venture.

“Following this notice of discovery, the Ministry of Energy has agreed to the Tullow proposal, as operator of Blocks 10BB and 13T, to carry out a combined exploration and evaluation programme over a defined Area of Interest (AOI),” the highlights of the 2012 Financial and Operating report read in part.

“This includes all of the mapped prospects and leads along the basin bounding fault on the western edge of the Lokichar Basin.”

Tullow has a 50 per cent operating interest in the Twiga South-1 well, Block 13T, with the Africa Oil holding the remaining. “The basis of the AOI approach is to adopt a basin-wide approach to concurrently explore and evaluate the area as opposed to undertaking well-by-well appraisals for each discovery well,” the report adds.

Tullow and its partner have so far struck oil in two wells in the Lokichar Basin. The first discovery was in Ngamia 1 well located in the same basin. Several months later, the firm announced it had found oil of a similar quality at the Twiga South-1 well, just 22km away. “This basin-wide approach (AOI) is agreed to be the efficient and quickest approach to moving the exploration and evaluation work programme forward towards reaching a commercial threshold of reserves required to justify any large scale oil development,” it added.

The Canadian firm told its shareholders that its improved performance would help it drill and test multiple wells in the Turkana oil basin. “Africa Oil is encouraged with the results of our first two exploration wells in the Lockichar Basin.

Our improved financial position as a result of the non-brokered private placement and the farm outs completed in the fourth quarter of last year will enable the Company to drill and test multiple wells in the Lokichar sub-Basin,” Mr Keith Hill, President and chief executive of Africa Oil said in a statement accompanying the financial report. “This will be in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill multiple additional potential basin-opening wells across its vast East African exploration acreage,” he added.

Early this month, Tullow said it was moving to Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB to drill the ‘Etuko’ prospect following its suspension operations in Marsabit’s Paipai-1 well.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000080362&pageNo=…

[motz1]

Eine weitere gute Nachricht: Kenyas neuer Präsident heißt Kenyatta und wurde offiziell bestätigt. Die Wahlüberprüfung des höchsten Gericht Kenias kam zum Ergebnis, dass die Wahlen rechtmäßig sind und haben die vom bisherigen Amtsinhaber Odinga vorgebrachte Beschwerde abgewiesen.



http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/sendung/ts41188.html
Ab Minute 5:45.

[abionaut]

http://www.taggesschau.de/ausland/kenia-unruhen-wahl100.html

"Odinga gratuliert Kenyatta" zum Wahlsieg.

"Mittlerweile scheint sich Lage aber wieder beruhigt zu haben. Kleinere Zusammenstöße gab es nur noch in Außenbezirken von Kisumu."

Klingt ja beruhigend. Das sollte das Vertrauen der Investoren in absehbarer Zeit wieder herstellen.

[Staberhuk]

Uhuru Kenyatta sucht also junges Personal für seine Führung.


29/03/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1353

KENYA
Uhuru Kenyatta’s ‘young guard’

In a country where 75% of the population is under thirty, the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is banking on a group of young Turks to entice the youth vote. [275 words] [€5,2]
KENYA

Kenyatta’s problem with childhood friends

Uhuru Kenyatta is meditating on his future team in the State House. He is wondering whether to include two of his childhood friends whose reputations are questionable. [186 words] [€5,2]

[motz1]

Goldman Sachs covert AOI - imho eine etwas eigenwillige Betrachtungsweise...

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Goldman Sachs: Africa Oil's assets have great potential

By: Direct / Business World
Published today, 10:241 comment


Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of Africa Oil, recommending neutral, target price $ 60.


It is clear from an analysis of 4 april.

The investment bank is basically positive to Africa Oil, whose assets are estimated as attractive with great potential. The risk level of the company's business is relatively high, so that even more interesting companies are elsewhere in the sector, according to the bank's analysts.

The majority of the company's activities in 2013 focused on the only partially translucent blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya.

"While this should lead to a number of catalysts during the year, we believe that the market price already reflects exploration success in these blocks," wrote Goldman Sachs.

The target price $ 60 [Anm.: Währung muss auf SEK lauten] applies for 12 months and is based on an average oil price of $ 100 per barrel.


By: Direct / Business World
Email reporter

http://www.affarsvarlden.se/hem/nyheter/article3671020.ece (google-übersetzt)

[gabbo62]

Schon merkwürdig, dass der Shortbestand wieder leicht gestiegen ist.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
1,516,309 31/Mar/2013
1,460,613 15/Mar/2013
1,563,408 28/Feb/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Hmmm, mal wieder ein GERÜCHT auf Twitter:

"Ian Cooper‏@ianlcooper17h
keep an eye on africa oil story $AOI.v and $AOIFF. Oh, and Tullow, too. That story is gonna explode."

https://twitter.com/ianlcooper

Btw, Ian Cooper ist Kollege von Christian DeHaemer...


Sabisa? Ngamia? News tomorrow?

[gabbo62]

Ngamia ist noch zu früh. Ich habe in Erinnerung, dass Tullow erst Ende Mai die Ergebnisse kommunizieren will und es keine Zwischenergebnisse geben wird.

Sabisa ist eigentlich schon über die Zeit. Spud war 13.01. und kalkuliert mit 60 Tagen. Ende dieser Woche sind es schon 90 Tage. Entweder hatte man technische Probleme oder es laufen bereits Testings.

[motz1]

Hi gabbo62,
die Überlegung zu Ngamia war folgende: Wir wissen, dass das Testing läuft. Ich unterstelle normale Testreihenfolge gemäß Präsentation vom 28.02. - von unten nach oben. Sollte die untere Zone brauchbare Flows ergeben (haben), so wäre das eine seeehr gute Nachricht, da sie mit der Porosity von 10-15% kritischer scheint als der obere Teil...

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Africa Oil eyes commercial finds in Kenya
11:43am EDT

By George Obulutsa and Edmund Blair

NAIROBI (Reuters) - An intensive drilling campaign with partners this year should bring Africa Oil Corp (AOI.V: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) much closer to confirming that Kenya has commercial quantities of oil, it said on Monday.

Chief Executive Keith Hill, whose Canadian-listed firm has interests in its 12 blocks covering 250,000 sq km in the region, told Reuters about $468 million would be spent in 2013 to drill at least 10 wells in Kenya and other locations in east Africa.

Oil discoveries in Uganda and gas finds offshore Tanzania and Mozambique have drawn more explorers to east Africa, now seen as a potential major new producing region.

In Kenya Africa Oil and partner Tullow Oil (TLW.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) have discovered oil in their license blocks 10BB and 13T but still need to confirm commercial quantities.

"We plan to drill at least 10 wells this year and then I think we will drill that many, if not more next year," Hill said, speaking during the Reuters Africa Investment Summit, adding the firm and its partners would spend about $468 million.

"We will need somewhere between 300 and 500 million barrels to justify a pipeline and with the drilling program we have got this year it's possible we will start getting close to those thresholds by the end of the year," he said.

"But it's really hard to predict. It would depend on the success of the upcoming wells," he added, speaking in Nairobi.

Hill said the authorities in Kenya and also in Ethiopia, where Africa Oil has interests in four blocks, had assured him that terms would remain attractive for explorers and governments.

Africa Oil also has interests in two blocks in the Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region.

Asked whether Africa Oil would consider any acquisition approaches for his firm from bigger players eyeing the region, he said Africa Oil was still in a phase where it wanted to determine the full scope of the prospects on its acreage.

"There is obviously a possibility that we will get a monetary offer to just take us out completely at some point. I don't think we are actively looking to do that in the near future," he said.

Africa Oil and partner Tullow's most recent oil find in Kenya was the Twiga South-1 well in Block 13T, about 30 km (19 miles) west of and on a geological trend with its previous Ngamia-1 oil find on Block 10BB.

Twiga South-1 was flow tested, with Africa Oil and Tullow predicting a total combined flow rate of over 2,850 barrels of oil per day for the well.

Hill said this year three of their six drilling rigs in the region will be dedicated to Blocks 10BB and 13T, where they plan to drill at least five wells this year.

"So that will be a real focus for us this year. That is where we made the two discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga. So it will be following up those discoveries, drilling what we call the String of Pearls," Hill said.

Africa Oil, Tullow and Afren Plc (AFRE.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are also partners in Kenya's Block 10A, where they drilled the as yet inconclusive Paipai-1 well, another keenly-watched prospect in its Kenya-Ethiopia portfolio.

Hill said the well would undergo further tests. (Follow Reuters Summits on Twitter @Reuters_Summits)

(Editing by Greg Mahlich)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/us-africa-summit-a…

[1A1CHART]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde von CloudMOD moderiert. Grund: SPAM

[motz1]

Ein Beitrag zum möglichen Interesse der CNOOC an Kenya-Assets. Cheers to Warnado1/iii!

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China’s Oil Firm Makes Foray Into Kenya



Kenya has become the latest beneficiary of the battle heating up between the West, Japan and China for control of Africa’s economic landscape, raking in billions of shillings in new project finance and grant funds in the past two years.

By ANTHONY MWANGI
Wednesday, 10 April, 2013

China’s major oil corporation is planning to make major inroads in Africa to take advantage of the growing interest in the continent’s oil industry. According to The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) Chief Executive, Fu Chengyu, the company plans to capitalise on growing interest in the continent among explorers due to high oil prices and growing energy nationalism elsewhere. In Kenya, the company is seeking a stake in Tullow Oil, which is drilling oil in Turkana.

In the recent past China and Africa have strengthened their economic ties which has seen trade increase by 700 percent during the 1990s and over 2,000 percent to date. China is currently Africa’s largest trading partner, a move that has given the former a chance to control the resources in Africa at the expense of the West. The most sought for raw material from the African has been oil, and China has taken lead in the control of the scarce commodity.

CNOOC currently controls all the emerging projects in Africa and has managed to toss out European powerhouses including Shell-BP of Britain, Total of France and Kobil of the United States. Kenya has become the latest beneficiary of the battle heating up between the West, Japan and China for control of Africa’s economic landscape, raking in billions of shillings in new project finance and grant funds in the past two years.

Though China has been the more brazen hunter of opportunities in the country’s vast infrastructure and natural resources sectors, the scales have been tilting in favour of Japan in recent months as the Asian economic powerhouse unleashed its corporate giants for a piece of the pie. However, with the support of their government, Chinese firms are making major and high strategic entries into East Africa, targeting the expected windfall in mineral extraction and consumer goods markets.

CNOOC, which is wholly owned by the Chinese government has established six business sectors ranging from exploration and development of oil and gas, technical services, logistic services, chemicals and fertiliser production, natural gas and power generation to financial services and insurance. The company first featured in Kenya in 2011 when it signed a $26 million (Sh 2.1 billion) exploration project in Northern Kenya, known as Boghal 1, in Isiolo.

Before then Kenya had searched in vain for commercial oil and gas deposits for decades in different parts both offshore and inland. Before then, CNOOC had also signed a production sharing agreement for Block L2 of Kenya’s offshore Lamu Basin in 2006 but just like Boghal in Isiolo did not yield much. In exploration terms, East Africa lags far behind the other regions with fewer than 500 wells, compared with some 14,000 in West Africa and nearly 20,000 in North Africa.

In the recent past, however, the region has produced positive results with huge deposits of oil found in both Uganda and Kenya. CNOOC has since partnered with Tullow Oil in the Uganda project and is in the process of joining the British firm in the Kenyan project in Turkana County. In exploration terms, East Africa lags far behind the other regions with fewer than 500 wells, compared with some 14,000 in West Africa and nearly 20,000 in North Africa. [Anm.: Satz doppelt, Vgl. Original]

PERSPECTIVE Chengyu told The People during a recent tour of the firm’s headquarters in Beijing, that many exploration firms see potential in East Africa, saying poor quality data collected in the 1960s and 1970s wrongly painted it as likely having some natural gas but little oil. The geology of East Africa is far more complex than in West Africa, experts say, and is only now being studied with the latest seismic and geochemical techniques. The region’s location near oil-hungry Asian economies is also a draw.

CNOOC Executive Director Wu Guangqi said: “We will work closely with our colleagues to realise a winwin cooperation functioning as a bridge between these two great countries.” When the State Council promulgated the Regulation of the People’s Petroleum Resources in Cooperation with Foreign Enterprises on January 30, 1982, CNOOC was incorporated and authorised to assume the overall responsibilities for the exploitation of oil and gas resources offshore China in cooperation with foreign partners, which in effect ensured the monopoly status of CNOOC in offshore oil and natural gas industry. CNOOC registered with a capital of RMB yuan 50 billion Sh 708billion) and currently has more than 98,750 employees.

http://www.thepeople.co.ke/story.php?com=31&item=3271#.UWQ2O…

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Mit etwa 2,5TCF gas und damit etwa 400mmboe trifft die Formulierung "dit not yield much" nicht ganz zu. Es ist bekannt, dass CNOOC sich bei der Bewertung von Bogal-1 in Block 9 -vorsichtig formuliert- "etwas verschätzt" hat.

Wenn an dem Geschreibsel "CNOOC has since partnered with Tullow Oil in the Uganda project and is in the process of joining the British firm in the Kenyan project in Turkana County." etwas wahres dran sein sollte, hoffe ich dass sich CNOOC auf's Zahlen beschränkt und Tullow weiter bohrt...
Es würde m.E. allerdings durchaus sinnvoll in die Situation passen: Es wurde die Area of Interesst genehmigt, dort stehen auch in absehbarer Zeit Infrastrukturaufgaben an. Ein finanzkräftiger Partner in diesen Blöcken kann nicht schaden, let others pay...

Alles Zukunftsmusik .

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.395.637 von motz1 am 09.04.13 18:10:55

RionsRun hat auf stockhouse folgende Beiträge gepostet:

.......................

Mohammed Awad Posted date: April 08, 2013

Ethiopia oil import future questioned after Sudan source axed Concerns rising over energy needs in Ethiopia.

ADDIS ABABA: Ethiopia energy experts are questioning where the country will get its needed petroleum imports after the government said this past week it was ending oil imports from Sudan.

Ethiopia had imported close to one million metric tons of petroleum worth $1.1 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year, which is 21pc higher than that of last year’s amount. But the government then came out and said it was canceling the deal.

“It is surprising that the government would resort to politics over our energy needs,” said oil consultant Yussif Mohammed Ali. He told Bikyanews.com that “other sources must be found soon or the country could face pitfalls.”

The Ethiopian Petroleum Supplier Enterprise (EPSE), the sole entity tasked with meeting the country’s demand for petroleum, has also imported 126,209 metric tons of coal with $29.5 million.

Ali said coal could provide immediate relief, but the “future environmental concerns will outweigh this in the long run.”

EPSE was established by the Council of Ministers in July 2012 by amalgamating the Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (EPE) and the National Petroleum Depot Administration (NPDA). EPSE has 13 depots in various parts of the country and two branch offices in two neighboring countries.

“I think this is a positive step on both sides,” an Ethiopian government consultant told Bikyanews.com at the time. “It shows that we as a region are willing to compromise and meet goals without causing unduly harm. Considering the dam project and the anger from Khartoum and Cairo over it, helping give us energy needs is positive.”

But it seems something, not yet reported, has happened to change the situation.

Ethiopia imports up to 85 percent of its annual oil consumption from neighboring Sudan, largely due to its geographic proximity.

BN

http://bikyanews.com/87307/ethiopia-oil-import-future-questi…

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Zudem folgenden Artikel bereits aus 2010, der nochmal das Thema CNOOC/Kenya/Bogal-1 aufgreift - sie wollten bereits damals aus den Blöcken 9 und L2 raus (was auch geschah), allerdings 20% an fünf anderen Blöcken:

.................

China's CNOOC to pull out of Kenyan blocks
By Helen Nyambura-Mwaura
NAIROBI | Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:36am EDT

(Reuters) - China's CNOOC is pulling out of its two Kenyan licences but wants a 20 percent participation in another five blocks to be operated by Tullow Oil, a Kenyan government official said on Thursday.

CNOOC spudded a well in Kenya's Block 9 in partnership with Canada's Africa Oil and Taiwan's CPC, which showed seven horizons of gas prospects. It tested four of them, said Patrick Nyoike, permanent secretary at the energy ministry.

"CNOOC is pulling out by December. I believe Africa Oil will remain because they have expertise in oil exploration. CNOOC was in L2, which they are also surrendering. My best bet is they don't have expertise for oil exploration," he told Reuters.

"They believe the consortium by Tullow and Africa Oil is better suited for this."

London-listed Tullow is the operator of Africa Oil's five licences in Kenya after a 50 percent farm-in agreement in September.

"They (CNOOC) have requested us to facilitate them to participate in the blocks being managed by Africa Oil and Tullow to the tune of 20 percent."

Nyoike said the government felt CNOOC did not do a good job of the Bhogal 1 well in Block 9 and that it hoped Africa Oil would go back and carry out more work there.

"That did not come out well. There is a feeling that they should have done more," he said on the sidelines of an electricity expansion project launch in Nairobi.

"There is a feeling that if Africa Oil can go back and do some work."

Interest in East Africa, which is much less explored than West Africa, has been rising on the back of Tullow's Ugandan discovery and a gas find by U.S. firm Anadarko off the coast of Mozambique in February.

Tullow also acquired a 70 percent interest in Centric Energy's Block 10BA after farm-in agreement, bringing its licences in Kenya to six.

Tullow will be required to adhere to the initial agreement with Centric for that block, which is a 26 percent of windfall profit for the government, Nyoike said.

Canada's Vanoil has completed seismic studies in its two blocks, Nyoike said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/10/21/ozabs-kenya-explor…

----------

Es ist gut vorstellbar, dass es hinter den Kulissen derzeit ein Gerangel um einen möglichen Anteil an einem oder mehreren Blöcken gibt. Wenn dabei geopolitische Kräfte ("Ost gegen West") am Werk sind, dürfte es m.E. dem Preis kaum schaden...

[Staberhuk]

In Uganda - Blocks 1 bis 3 - gibt es sehr enge Beziehungen zwischen Total, Tullow und CNOOC. Mir fiel der Artikel erst jetzt auf.

Quelle:http://www.africaintelligence.com/AEM/oil/2013/04/02/the-cos…


UGANDA

OIL
n°696 - 02/04/2013

The cost of Lake Albert’s oil

The French major Total has worked out the cost of developing reserves in and around Lake Albert to the three companies involved in the project, Total, CNOOC and Tullow Oil.


According to our sources, the most expensive block to develop will be Total’s and the tab will work out to between $7-8 billion. The French company’s block 1, north of Lake Albert, appears to be the most complicated with its reservoirs especially hard to reach. CNOOC, which operates block 3 that has been re-named Kingfisher will require between $3 to $4 billion to put it into production. Lastly Tullow, on block 2, will have the easiest ride, needing to spend only between $1.2 and $2.5 billion on work.

But as the three companies each hold 33.33% on the three blocks the cost of $14.5 billion (highest figure on the range) will have to be shared equally.

The three blocks are estimated to house 3.5 billion barrels and the potential will call for additional funding to build an oil pipeline needed to export the oil.

Total estimates that the choice of Lamu for a pipeline that would pass by way of Lake Turkana would cost $3 billion. The Mombasa pipeline alternative would work out to $3.5 billion and the option of a line running to Dar es Salaam would amount to between $3.4 and $4 billion (it’s by far the longest).

At present the Kenya option has an edge over Tanzania because of discoveries by Tullow near Lake Turkana in the north of the country in 2012.

But the choice of a route will depend a lot on the financial demands of the countries it will cross as well as on the cost of port infrastructure. While oil terminals in the ports of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam already exist that’s not the case with Lamu, where it would have to be built from scratch.

The Hoima/Lamu pipeline would be cheapest from a geographical standpoint but the project could work out a lot more costly because of the need to build a deepwater port and other infrastructure.

The companies themselves are pushing for the bulk of production amounting to between 250,000-300,000 bpd to be exported. But Uganda president Yoweri Museveni is sticking to his guns and demanding that almost all of the oil be refined locally. However, his position has been undercut to some degree by Essar which plans to double the capacity of the Mombasa refinery to reach 4 million tons per year (or 83,000 bpd).

[Staberhuk]

Quelle: http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/business-circles/2013/…

12/04/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1354

UGANDA

Museveni still wants his refinery

The government has asked several consultants to work on the oil refinery project that President Yoweri Museveni wants to build in the Hoima district. [298 words] [€5,2]" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/business-circles/2013/…

12/04/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1354

UGANDA

Museveni still wants his refinery

The government has asked several consultants to work on the oil refinery project that President Yoweri Museveni wants to build in the Hoima district. [298 words] [€5,2]

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.417.717 von Staberhuk am 12.04.13 13:01:09

ups, da lief was schief.

Quelle: http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/business-circles/2013/…


12/04/2013

The Indian Ocean Newsletter N°1354

UGANDA

Museveni still wants his refinery

The government has asked several consultants to work on the oil refinery project that President Yoweri Museveni wants to build in the Hoima district. [298 words] [€5,2]

[motz1]

Sabisa-results voraussichtlich erst gegen Ende Mai (!) .

Cheers to Warnado1/iii.
..............................


AFRICA OIL PROFIT SABISA EXPECTED LATE MAY-MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS

Yesterday, 19:08 Source: Direct

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) Drilling Results of the Ethiopian cockpit Sabisa where Africa Oil is involved, is expected towards the end of May, two months later than originally planned.
It writes Bloomberg News referring to an interview on Friday in Paris with Africa Oil, principal owner Lukas Lundin.
On Wednesday said Africa Oil's ir manager Robert Eriksson Direkt that drilling results were expected by the end of april.
The delay reported by Lukas Lundin due to technical difficulties regarding drilling.
He said in the interview also Africas medoperatör Tullow Oil has decided to drill at least one additional well in Ethiopia.

Exchange Editor [phone]
Direkt

http://www.affarsvarlden.se/hem/nyheter/article3675844.ece

[gabbo62]

Dafür sind auch die Shorties so entspannt.
Die wissen genau, wann welche News kommen.
Ein dreckiges Spiel auf Kosten der Privatanleger.

[gabbo62]

Africa Oil Corp targets 4 rigs this year, Kenya.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201304121379.html

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.425.955 von gabbo62 am 13.04.13 19:51:36

Hi gabbo62,

deine Vermutung dürfte Substanz haben - mit "aussitzen" kann man bis zu einem gewissen Grad entkommen.

Auf stockhouse gibt es Gerüchte wonach AOI morgen ein operational update rausgeben will.
Schauen wir mal ob was kommt...

[gabbo62]

Hier die angekündigte News (Operational Upgrade)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/tullow-oil-plc--tlw-/rns/east-a…

[gabbo62]

News Release



East Africa Operational Update

15 April 2013 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") provides an update on progress with the Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia and announces a successful first flow test of the Ngamia-1 well in Kenya.



Ethiopia - Sabisa-1 encounters hydrocarbons requiring logging and further evaluation

The Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block in Southern Ethiopia has been drilled to a total depth of 1,810 metres. Hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal have been recorded whilst drilling, but hole instability issues have required the drilling of a sidetrack to comprehensively log and sample these zones of interest. The sidetrack recently commenced and a result is now expected in late May. Tullow (50%) is the operator of this well with Africa Oil (30%) and Marathon Oil (20%) having non-operated interests.



Kenya - first of six Ngamia-1 well tests flows at 281 bopd

At the Ngamia-1 well in Block 10BB in Kenya, the first of six drill stem tests has now been completed. The test was carried out in the Lower Lokhone formation. The well flowed 281 barrels of 30 degree API oil per day using a Progressive Cavity Pump. The other tests will be carried out in the Auwerwer reservoirs (formerly Upper Lokhone) which produced very well in the recent tests at the Twiga South-1 well. The mobilization of the drilling rig from Paipai in Block 10A to the Etuko (previously Kamba) location in Block 10BB in Kenya continues on schedule with drilling expected to commence in the first half of May. Tullow operates the Ngamia-1 well and Africa Oil (50%) has a non-operated interest.



Angus McCoss, Exploration Director of Tullow Oil plc, commented today,

"The Sabisa-1 well has proved to be technically challenging, as is often the case in frontier basins, and the well now requires a side-track to redrill, log and sample the objective section. Nevertheless, we are encouraged by the hydrocarbon indications which provide emerging evidence for a working petroleum system in the previously undrilled South Omo Basin. The results from the first flow test at Ngamia are also very encouraging and prove the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone reservoir section. The remaining tests in the Auwerwer reservoir units will give us a fuller indication of Ngamia's production potential."

[gabbo62]

Hier die AOI-Version:

AFRICA OIL CONFIRMS LOWER LOKHONE OIL DISCOVERY

IN NGAMIA-1 WELL AND PROVIDES OPERATIONAL UPDATE



April 15, 2013 (AOI–TSXV, AOI–NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide the following operational update on its projects in East Africa.



The first of six drill stem tests at the Ngamia-1 well has been concluded. This test was in the Lower Lokhone formation where up to 43m of potential pay had previously been identified by logging and MDT sampling. The well flowed 281 barrels of 30 degree API oil per day with the assistance of a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP). The remaining 5 tests will be conducted in the Auwerwer (formerly Upper Lokhone) sandstones which are the highest quality reservoirs penetrated in the Ngamia well and which produced very well in the recent tests at the Twiga South-1 well. Results of these remaining Ngamia tests are expected to be announced by early June. The Ngamia-1 well is located in Block 10BB in Kenya and the Company has a 50% working interest in the block along with Tullow Oil Plc which holds the remaining 50% interest and operatorship.



The Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block in Southern Ethiopia has been drilled to a preliminary total depth of 1,810 metres. Hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal have been recorded while drilling, but hole instability issues have required the drilling of a sidetrack to comprehensively log and sample these zones of interest. The sidetrack recently commenced and a result is now expected in late May. The hydrocarbon indications are highly encouraging as they provide emerging evidence for a working petroleum system in the previously undrilled South Omo Basin. The Company holds a 30% working interest in the block along with operator Tullow Oil Plc (50%) and partner Marathon Oil Corporation (20%).



The mobilization of the drilling rig from Paipai to the Etuko (previously Kamba) location in Block 10BB in Kenya continues on schedule with a spud date expected in the first half of May.



Drilling preparations are also underway on the El Kuran prospect in Ethiopia. Operator New Age are in the process of mobilizing a drilling rig and related services to the location and the well is also expected to spud in the second quarter of this year. This well is being drilled on a large structure previously confirmed to contain light oil in Jurassic carbonates by two boreholes drilled in the 1970’s. The Company holds a 30% working interest along with New Age (40%) and Afren Plc (30%).



The Company is in final negotiations to secure a drilling rig for its upcoming Bahasi-1 exploration well in Block 9 in Kenya. This well will test a large anticlinal feature in the Cretaceous rift trend which has recently been confirmed to contain hydrocarbons at the Paipai well in Block 10A. The well is expected to spud in the third quarter of this year. The Company holds a 50% working interest and operatorship along with partner Marathon Oil Corporation (50%).



Preparations are also underway to conduct a Full Tensor Gradiometry (FTG) survey on the Company’s newly awarded Rift Basin Area Block (previously the Rift Valley Joint Study Area) in Ethiopia. The survey is expected to commence this month and be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2013. The Company currently holds a 100% working interest in this block.



Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented “We are pleased to be moving forward on a number of high impact projects that will greatly affect the value of the Company in the coming year. The confirmation of potentially commercially viable oil in the Lower Lokhone sands in the Ngamia well will add to the overall resource potential, but also has positive implications for the upcoming Etuko-1 well on the eastern flank of the Lokichar Basin. We remain convinced that we have only just begun to unlock the potential of what may be one of the largest new oil basins to be opened in recent times.”

[motz1]

Interessantes Update.

Ngamia-1
Zunächst werden sich wohl viele darauf stürzen, dass die unterste getestete Zone "nur" 281 bopd liefert. Das ist absolut betrachtet nicht all zu viel, wenn man aber die verwendeten PCP berücksichtigt dürfte auch hier der Schluss nahe liegen, dass sich diese Zahl ausbaufähig ist. Und vor allem wird diese Menge aus einer anderen Schicht bzw. einem anderen reservoir produziert. Für mich viel konkreter: Tullows McCoss bezeichnet es so "The results from the first flow test at Ngamia are also very encouraging and prove the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone reservoir section." Nice .

Es folgen nach derzeitigem Plan also noch 5 weitere Tests, allesamt im Auwerwer - der Formation, in der die guten Ergebnisse der Twiga-Bohrung erzielt wurden. Die Ergebnisse dazu soll es laut AOI bis Anfang Juni geben.

KH gibt uns noch Hinweise wie sich der Resources Report entwickeln könnte: "The confirmation of potentially commercially viable oil in the Lower Lokhone sands in the Ngamia well will add to the overall resource potential, but also has positive implications for the upcoming Etuko-1 well on the eastern flank of the Lokichar Basin."
Etuko wird eines der "Mega-Drillings" der kommenden Monate, es würde einen komplett neuen play-type mit vielen follow ups im Lokichar Basin öffnen.


Sabisa
Man steht bei 1810m und musste aufgrund von "hole instability issues" einen sidetrack setzen. Wertvoll sind folgende zusätzlichen Infos: Es wurde ein "thick claystone top seal" gefunden. Zudem hat man "hydrocarbon indications" in darunterliegenden Schichten verzeichnet. Daher der sidetrack, um diese Zonen umfangreich zu loggen und samplen (alles Tullow).
AOI ergänzt "The hydrocarbon indications are highly encouraging as they provide emerging evidence for a working petroleum system in the previously undrilled South Omo Basin."
Damit erklärt sich dann auch die Verzögerung und die Ankündigung des Ergebnisses auf Ende Mai. Und wenn Tullow mir sagt, dass sie ausführlich loggen und samplen wollen, dann warte ich nicht ungern. Sie werden sich schon was dabei denken.


Ausblick:
- Etuko-drilling startet voraussichtlich in der ersten Mai-Hälfte
- El-Kuran-Vorbereitungen laufen, voraussichtlicher Beginn in Q2/13 (Zeitpunkt scheint mir optimistisch)
- Bahasi-Drilling in Block 9 soll in Q3/13 beginnen
- Rift Area Block: FTG soll noch im April beginnen und in Q3 abgeschlossen sein. AOI betont dass sie derzeit 100% WI an RVA halten.


Auf einen angenehmen AOI-Sommer

Wie immer alles imvho.

[gabbo62]

Vielen Dank motz1,
sehr gute Einschätzung zur News.
Die Kursentwicklung in Schweden vermutet "leicht negativ".
Hoffentlich lassen sich die PI`s von diesem Bluff nicht verarschen und schmeißen.
Solange wir über 1,5 Mio. Short-Bestand haben, sind dreckige Mächte im Driver Seat.

[gabbo62]

aus Stockhouse.com vom User API38:

1. Davy Research commenting on results for impact on Tullow:

http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_B…

Tullow Oil



Interim well results from East Africa an incremental positive; NAV remains unchanged for now

DAVY VIEW

Tullow has reported indications of hydrocarbons in unconsolidated sands with the wildcat Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia. The well will now be side-tracked to complete logging and analysis. At the Ngamia-1 exploration well in Kenya, a constrained well test produced 281 bopd from the Lower Lokhone sandstones using artificial lift. A further five shallower intervals will now be flow-tested.

We view the results from East Africa as an incremental positive in that the Sabisa-1 well demonstrates potential for a working petroleum system in a previous undrilled basin while the Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may, contrary to earlier diagnosis, prove commercial. Given the interim nature of the results, we are leaving our risk-weighted group valuation of 1453p per share unchanged for now.


Sabisa-1 demonstrates potential for working petroleum system

The Sabisa-1 well was drilled in the frontier South Omo basin, which is part of the East African Rift system. The well was testing a prospect in a delta depositional setting close to a basin-bounding fault. The high risk exploration well reported indications of hydrocarbons beneath a thick, unstable clay section. Indications of rich gas were registered but this does not preclude an oil discovery at this location (the heaviest hydrocarbon molecule that equipment can and did measure is C4). The Pliocene sands from which hydrocarbon shows were reported are unconsolidated in nature. This can be positive for the reservoir quality in terms of porosity and permeability. The well is now being side-tracked to gather a more comprehensive set of logs for analysis. This operation is expected to complete in late May. While interim results do not suggest a discovery of the scale of last year's Ngamia discovery in Kenya, it is a significant result in the context of a basin that is previously undrilled and therefore without guiding calibration data for seismic interpretation.

Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may be commercial

Tullow, the operator of Ngamia-1, had previously assigned zero net pay or commerciality to the Lower Lokhone oil-bearing reservoir sands. A flow-test on an interval in these sands produced light oil at a rate of 281 bopd with the aid of a pump, meaning earlier estimates for contingent resources at Ngamia-1 could be revised upwards. The flow test was constrained at surface with Ngamia-1 drilled as an exploration, rather than development or production, well. Future wells in the Lower Lokhone can be optimised to improve production rates from the oil-bearing zones in this formation.

Tullow and its partners will now flow test five intervals in the Upper Lokhone formation, which proved productive at the Twiga South-1 well in the same Lokichar basin.

The drilling rig from Paipai-1 is being mobilised to the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar basin in Kenya. A well on Etuko is due to spud on schedule in the first half of May.



2. Swedish article quoting the initial reaction of two analysts that cover Africa Oil Corp. Google translation of article to English follows link.

http://www.di.se/#!/finansiell-information/telegram/?NewsId=…



AFRICA OIL: NEUTRAL/ SLIGHT POSITIVE UPDATE - ANALYSTS

2013-04-1509:45

Stockholm (Bloomberg) Africa Oil's update on its ongoing East African oil exploration adventure gets a neutral to slightly positive reception amongthe analysts Direkt been in contact with on Monday morning. Oil shares, however, wentin the opposite direction and dropped in the initial trading session on Monday.



"It looks as if the market is focusing a lot on the delays and technical problems of Sabisa, while I would focus on that they have encountered hydrocarbons, which is really positive. This is the important message in this news bulletin," said Remium analysts Susanna Helgesen.

She continues: "I ??had expected that the stock would go up slightly at this. Regard to the technical problems, everyone should alreadyknow about it. It was not news that way. Should be noted that the case of Africa, it takes longer to do everything, and their schedule for the number of wells this year, they will not be able to keep. But the big goal is to find oil, and they have found hydrocarbons in Sabisa is what is the most interesting.



Anders Holte at ABG Sundal Collier gives his view: "We think it was a neutral operational update. It has some problems with drilling but nothing else. Fact that it has found hydrocarbons in Sabisa is in itself positive, but it does not say youfound some oil which can be produced ".

At 9:40 o'clock had Africa Oil's shares fell about 6 percent to 41 kronor. "I'd take the opportunity to buy somemore shares," said ABG Analyst on the negative price reaction.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.431.651 von gabbo62 am 15.04.13 11:25:19

Tja gabbo62, da haben wir deine Vermutung schwarz auf weiß. Ich habe gerade den Davi View gelesen. Und ich behaupte, dass die darin verwendeten Infos nicht auf allein auf aus Fachwissen resultierenden Rückschlüssen basieren. Die bekommen einfach andere/mehr Infos...

Die News ist, wie einige zuvor in diesem Jahr, deutlich positiv. Wer in Afrika einem wildcatter technische Schwierigkeiten vorwirft hat imho die Branche verfehlt.
Und wenn der ABG-Analyst meint bei Sabisa würde die Info fehlen dass man Öl gefunden hat welches produziert werden kann, dann kann ich nur noch schmunzeln. Sollen diejenigen, welche so eine Erwartungshaltung haben, mal zu ihrer Tankstelle gehen und dort nachfragen. Die dürften naturgemäß genau wissen wie viel sie wovon wie tief unter der Erde haben.


Ich werde -weitestgehend entspannt - in aller Ruhe abwarten. Fundamental sind die Infos alle gut. Irgendwann werden auch die Shortis kapitulieren, so langsam beginnen sie gegen Tatsachen zu wetten...

[gabbo62]

UBS ist mal wieder in Schweden als Verkäufer sehr aktiv.
Immer mit kleinen 3-stelligen Mengen. Lustig, wie man krampfhaft versucht den Kurs auf einen niedrigen Level zu drücken.

[gabbo62]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.430.203 von gabbo62 am 15.04.13 08:24:09

Zur Tullow-NR noch eine Grafik

[motz1]

Ahhh, es wäre nicht Keith Hill und irgendwie auch nicht AOI wenn nicht noch was inoffizielles nachgeschoben würde. KH hat das Fenster einmal mehr sehr weit geöffnet um sich nach vorne zu beugen...

Many thanks to user Stockbrain/Stockhouse!

..............................


AFRICA OIL HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SAND SABISA CONTAINING OIL - CEO (Direct) Print
2013-04-15 13:55


STOCKHOLM (Reuters) There is a high probability that the sand in the Ethiopian cockpit Sabisa contain oil.

It says Africa Oil president Keith Hill in a comment Direkt on Monday.

"We do not know with certainty until we have finished testing, but both we and Tullow believe with high probability that the sand in Sabisa contain oil," says Keith Hill.

He continues:

"We believe that the results we have seen so far from Sabisa reduced considerably the risk of the entire South Omo Basin."

But you are more confident about finding oil in Sabisa than you were in Somalia with a similar situation where you first found hydrocarbons but did not do any commercial oil discovery?

"I am more confident of finding oil in Sabisa" says the CEO.

As for the Kenyan cockpit Ngamia expect Keith Hill that the flow is similar to that of the Kenyan cockpit Twiga.

Keith Hill repeats the message that the Kenyan Paipai the well will flow tested sometime during the second half of this year.

Presidential elections in Kenya, and the handing over of the presidential spouse, has gone peacefully and Keith Hill estimates that the new presidential administration continues on the path towards the country's oil business.

"We expect no policy changes against the oil companies from the new administration," said the President.

Despite the weekend attack made ??by terrorist stamped Al-Shabab in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, says Keith Hill that the security situation in the country has improved dramatically overall.

It also expects Keith Hill company will release a new resource update on August / september.


Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N1979…

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.433.079 von motz1 am 15.04.13 14:11:30

Eigentlich alles höchst ermutigend - ohne den Orkan, der über die TSX-Venture zieht, würde es mit Sicherheit anders aussehen. So aber Minus 11 Prozent auf 6,00 CAD. Man weiß nicht, mit welchen Aktien es welche Investoren und Hedgefonds grade zerbläst und wieviele Margin-Calls zur Auslösung kommen. Käufer halten sich eher noch zurück, weil die Nachwirkungen eines solchen Crashs noch ein paar Tage andauern können.
Aber wer weiß, wenn Sabisa in ein paar Wochen trifft, haben wir im Nachhein gesehen in diesen Tagen vielleicht die besten Kaufkurse des Jahres.

Meine Gedanken kreisen darüber, wo wir bei Africa Oil in 2-3 Jahren stehen - ich denke überall, nur nicht bei 6,00 CAD... Time will tell.

[Assegai]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.437.287 von schwochner am 15.04.13 21:56:24

Sehe ich auch so, deshalb habe ich heute nochmals nachgekauft. Meine AOI sind eh eine Langfristinvestition, die will ich schon bis 2017 halten oder zumindest dann mal nachsehen, wor wir dann stehen . Locker bleiben, solange die Bohrergebnisse gut bleiben und die fundamentalen Daten stimmen. Irgendwann geht es schon wieder nach oben. Wenn es weiter runter geht, kaufe ich eben weiter zu.

Gruß
Assegai

[motz1]

User investor_123 hat auf stockhouse das Cannacord Update zur gestrigen News eingestellt. Ich habe die aus meiner Sicht neue Info hervorgehoben: Bei Sabisa gibt es "three zones of interest" die gelogged und gesampled werden...

Wenn die Infos in diesem Takt weiter durchsickern sollten wir nicht mehr lange warten müssen bis das Puzzle komplett ist.

[gabbo62]

AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES ADDITION TO MANAGEMENT TEAM

April 16, 2013 (AOI–TSXV, AOI–NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that effective May 1, 2013, Mr. Mark Dingley will join the Company as President of Africa Oil Ethiopia B.V. and Chief Operating Officer of Horn Petroleum Corporation (“Horn”). Africa Oil holds an approximate 45% equity interest in Horn and provides the management of the business. Mr. Dingley will be based out of the Company’s Addis Ababa office.

Mr. Dingley has 14 years of oil industry experience including 12 years with Talisman Energy Inc. where he served as Vice President, Middle East Operations as well as General Manager, Peru; Manager, Corporate Security & Surface Risk; and Manager, Government Affairs & Deputy General Manager, Sudan. Prior to entering the oil industry Mark spent 4 years working in the mining industry in various locations through Africa and he also served in the British Military for 12 years. His education includes both Bachelors and Masters degrees in Law from Canterbury, UK and he has also completed an Executive MBA at Harvard Business School. Mark was born and educated in Kenya.

Mr. Keith Hill, President and CEO of Africa Oil, commented, “We are very pleased to have been able to attract Mark to our organization and his skill set will be of great benefit to the Company as we commence operations in Ethiopia and move to conduct further operations in Somalia through Horn. Mark has extensive experience and knowledge throughout Africa which will assist us as we look to expand our operations in the region.”

The Company also announces that it has granted an aggregate of 5,673,500 incentive stock options to certain officers, directors, and other eligible persons of the Company. The options are exercisable, subject to vesting provisions, over a period of three years at a price of $5.94 per share.

About Africa Oil

Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through its approximate 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East African holdings are in within a world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 250,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. New discoveries have been announced on all sides of Africa Oil's virtually unexplored land position including the major Albert Graben oil discovery in neighboring Uganda. Africa Oil's recent Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 discoveries extend the Albert Graben play into Kenya where Africa Oil along with partner Tullow Oil plc hold a dominant acreage position. Newly acquired seismic and gravity data show robust leads and prospects throughout Africa Oil's project areas. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

“Keith C. Hill”

President and CEO

[sheriffxl]

Das Fazit vom CM:

Fazit:

In einem halbwegs rationalen Marktumfeld müsste die Aktie von Africa Oil deutlich im Plus notieren. Allerdings scheinen sich die Investoren generell noch nicht aus der Deckung zu wagen. Seit Wochen fällt auf, dass bei sämtlichen Rohstoffaktien auffällig hohe Short-Positionen aufgebaut wurden. Bei Africa Oil waren per 28.März 1,5 Millionen Aktien leerverkauft – das entspricht zwar lediglich 0,6 Prozent der ausstehenden Aktien – angesichts der im aktuellen Marktumfeld relativ geringen Handelsumsätze kann sich der Kurs von großen Playern jedoch unter einem relativ geringem Aufwand in die gewünschte Richtung manipulieren lassen. Stabilisiert sich der Rohstoffsektor in den nächsten Tagen, dürfte die Aktie von Africa Oil den verdienten Anstieg nachreichen. Sollten die Partner auf Sabisa-1 in den nächsten Wochen Öl finden, sind sogar neue Jahreshöchstkurse wahrscheinlich. Die Shortseller-Fraktion wettet bei Africa Oil und Tullow immer stärker gegen die Tatsachen. Wer bei Africa Oil noch nicht investiert ist, sollte die aktuellen Kurse zum Einstieg nutzen.

[schwochner]

Warum überall Short-Positionen aufgebaut wurden, ist seit Freitag klar. Ich glaube, dass die großen Player einfach einen ganzen Basket von halbwegs liquiden Aktien shorten und nicht bei jedem einzelnen Unternehmen die Nachrichten oder Aussichten analysieren. Das würde wahrscheinlich viel zu viel Aufwand machen. Bei Africa Oil werden erst einmal die Stopps unter 6,00 CAD abgeholt, vielleicht so bis auf 5,50, wenn der Kurs dann wieder über 6,00 CAD dreht, war es das wahrscheinlich.
Chris Brown von Canaccord hat auch wieder Unsinn geschrieben, seiner Meinung nach sind die Flowrates enttäuschend für den Markt. Vielleicht weiß er ja jetzt schon, wie die restlichen 5 Zonen ausfallen...

[gabbo62]

Shortbestand zum 15.04. auf 447.631 gefallen. Die restlichen werden die letzten Tagen zum Covern genutzt haben. Demnach steht einem kräftigen Rebound nichts mehr im Wege. Good News und vernünftiges Marktumfeld vorausgesetzt.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
447,631 15/Apr/2013
1,516,309 31/Mar/2013
1,460,613 15/Mar/2013

[gabbo62]

An Zufälle glaube ich hier nicht mehr. Nach dem mysteriösen letzten PP hat man jetzt fast den Boden gefunden, um das Optionspaket auszukippen. So ein Zufall aber auch.
Meines Erachtens wird seit Monaten bei AOI mit Unterstützung des Managements versucht, die Anteile in die "richtigen" Hände zu spielen.
Könnt Ihr Euch noch an die fadenscheinige Begründung des Verkaufs von 100.000 Shares von K. Hill kurz nach dem PP errinnern? Auch das war m.E. ein gezieltern Beitrag zur vorgenannten These.


Auszug aus der NR vom 16.04.13 (Gewährung von Optionen für Mgt):
The Company also announces that it has granted an aggregate of 5,673,500 incentive stock options to certain officers, directors, and other eligible persons of the Company. The options are exercisable, subject to vesting provisions, over a period of three years at a price of $5.94 per share.

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

Einen Teil der zugeteilten Optionen sieht man hier bei Canadianinsider.
K. Hill hat z.B. 580.000 zum Bezugspreis von 5,94 $ erhalten.
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=AOI+%7C+…

[motz1]

Das Fähnlein scheint wieder zu drehen. Gut so. schwochner hat im Beitrag 2220 scheinbar den Nagel auf den Kopf getroffen - chapeau!

@gabbo62: Deine These klingt plausibel. Ich muss aber gestehen, dass wenn es so wäre ich damit klar komme bzw. es begrüße wenn die Shares in den richtigen Händen landen. Dass das wohl opportunistisch ist und ggf. die falschen die Zeche zahlen ist mir klar.
Bei dem was AOI wohl bevorsteht -Sabisa scheint momentan gut zu werden- kann eine stabile Basis nicht schaden.


In Somalia -und damit hinsichtlich Horn Petroleum- scheint Bewegung ins "Spiel" zu kommen. Die Majors welche vor dem Umsturz im Land aktiv waren melden ihre Ansprüche an.
Der neue CEO scheint mit derartigen Situationen vertraut. Interessant finde ich jedenfalls, dass er zu diesem Zeitpunkt in das Unternehmen eintritt. Wenn er für AOI Äthiopien und für Horn verantwortlich zeichnet, gehe ich davon aus, dass es dort viel zu tun gibt. Mir soll es recht sein...

.....................


Somalia Targets Shell, Eni for Oil, Gas Output-Sharing Contracts
By David Malingha Doya - Apr 22, 2013 12:22 PM GMT+0200

Somalia plans to sign 30 oil and gas production-sharing contracts this year, starting with companies that operated in the country before its government was toppled more than two decades ago, an official said.

“All prior holders have been contacted and three are ready to continue,” including Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Eni SpA (ENI), and ConocoPhillips (C), Hussein Ali Ahmed, managing director of the state-owned Somalia Petroleum Corp., said in an interview on April 18 in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. BP Plc (BP/) has indicated an interest in returning, while Chevron Corp. hasn’t formerly answered the Somali government’s call to come back, he said.

Somalia is one of the last frontiers for oil and gas in eastern Africa as it recovers from a two-decade civil war that shattered the economy and left the nation as one of the world’s least developed. In the region, companies including Eni, BG Group Plc (BG/) and Statoil ASA (STL) have discovered more than 100 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves in Mozambique and Tanzania, while London-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) has found oil in Uganda and Kenya.

Somali lawmakers in September elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud as the country’s president, marking the 16th attempt to establish an effective central government since 1991, when the former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown. The country’s security forces, backed by regional peacekeepers, are still battling al-Qaeda-backed Islamic militants who control parts of southern and central Somalia, after fleeing the capital, Mogadishu, in August 2011.

Exploration Blocks
Somalia plans to increase the number of oil and gas exploration blocks to 300 of 5,000 square kilometers (1,931 square miles) each, after sub-dividing the existing 25 areas, according to Ahmed. Some blocks are currently as big as 200,000 square kilometers, Ahmed said.

“We want to sub-divide because they are too big to award to single companies for exploration in good time,” Ahmed said. Shell had five blocks before Barre’s government fell, he said.

The area available to explore for oil and gas in Somalia is equivalent to about one third of the country’s surface, Ahmed said. The country expects to complete legislation under which oil and gas activities will be managed within in months.

“We had drafted a law in 2008, but the new government asked to review it, and we expect they will send in to parliament soon, and the whole process should be complete in a few months,” Ahmed said.

http://origin-www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/somalia-targ…

[gabbo62]

Bis zum Annual Meeting sollten die Ergebnisse bekannt sein.

April 23, 2013

Africa Oil Announces Annual Meeting Date
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - April 23, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") announces that the Annual and Special Meeting of the Shareholders of the Company will be held at the Fairmont Hotel, the Boardroom, Conference Level, 900 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, B.C. on Monday June 3, 2013 at 10:00 a.m.

The record date for the meeting is April 26, 2013.

[sheriffxl]

http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=AOI

[gimo211]

Nomura Report vom 20. April - Download clicken....

http://www.qfpost.com/file/d?g=9o63IH7Zg


... Sehr schön zu lesen und es steht eigentlich alles drin, was hier auch diskutiert wurde...

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.343 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:10:41

Hier der Frontpage-Text...



On the cusp of something big?

Increasing TP to SEK 74/sh; Reiterate speculative Buy

Following the follow-ups

We recently attended a presentation by Tullow at the Geological Society and also hosted a breakfast with the CEO of Africa Oil. Following the Ngamia discovery, we think these companies could be on the cusp of opening up a multi-billion barrel basin across Kenya and Ethiopia. Our Risked NAV now includes tentative resource estimates for the nine follow- up prospects along the Ngamia trend and our corresponding TP moves to SEK 74 (CAD 11). We also highlight Blue Sky scenarios much higher than this, with the qualification that this remains a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.

A cascade of prospects in the Lokichar sub basin

The significance of success at Ngamia for us is that oil has not leaked through the fault. This was one of the biggest risks identified pre-drill. If Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the nine follow-up leads along the same bounding fault, it is not inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda. If this is the case, then the current share price could be underpinned by these prospects alone. Further upside could come from the northern extension of the Tertiary play in Blocks 10BA and South Omo in Ethiopia to the north, previously identified as the ‘golden blocks’ of the acreage.

Multiplier effect across a huge acreage position

Risked NAV is now driven by two levers. Firstly, NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This number is in line with the Heritage Oil's $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe contingent resource to Tullow in Uganda. Secondly, chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource, a number illustrative of the potential Blue Sky
upside.

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.389 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:14:02

... Aus den Erläuterungen...

What is the updip seal?

Owing to its proximity to a bounding fault, one of Ngamia’s biggest risks prior to drilling was oil leakage. It was thought that structural readjustments that took place as the rift valley opened up could have compromised trap integrity. The Ngamia discovery in Tertiary aged sands already differentiates Block 10BB from Block 10A, where readjustments in the Tertiary led to loss of seal, something demonstrated by the unsuccessful Sirius and Belatrix wells, which were drilled on breached traps. Both of these structures were three-way dip closed and fault-dependent.

A key question at the presentation at the Geological Society focused on what constituted the updip seal for Ngamia in Block 10BB. Three possibilities were given: a stratigraphic 'pinch out', viscous oil tar created through a process of biodegradation, or the waxy nature of the oil itself, which results in solidification at low temperatures. It is early days, but if Ngamia has mitigated trap integrity risk for the follow-up leads and prospects, we do not think it inconceivable that Blocks 10BB and 13T could contain the same resource potential as Uganda, in excess of 1bn boe.

The plan view in Figure 2 shows these follow-up leads and prospects that lie along the same bounding fault as Ngamia. Two of these lie in Block 10BB and seven lie in the adjacent Block 13T. In total, three prospects are ready to drill. The remainder require additional seismic interpretation to identify optimal drilling locations.

A process of rejuvenation in the Lokichar sub basin

A sideways view of the Ngamia trend in the Lokichar sub basin shows what looks like a 'cascading up' of leads and prospects. It looks like the rift fault itself may have undergone a process of rejuvenation, with just the right amount of compression and uplift to form structural traps.

If Tullow have cracked the geological code in Kenya, as they did in Uganda, then what could follow is a series of exploration successes. Tullow drilled 11 consecutive discoveries in Uganda, amounting to discovered resource of 1.1bn boe.

Ngamia is thought to be a mirror of the Waraga discovery in Uganda: a collapsed structure against a bounding fault that has a large P10 closure of 18 square kilometres. Gross estimated resources are 45mmboe P50 and 180mmboe P10. Ngamia was announced as a discovery with 20m of net pay c.800m of drilling, prior to it reaching its primary and secondary targets. With the well having encountered more oil as it drills down to target depth of 2700m, we think that the prognosis looks good.

Tertiary rift trend all ‘sewn up’

What we found interesting about this presentation was that it also highlighted the scale of Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage. The Lokichar sub basin is one of seven sub basins that together are bigger than Lake Albert, Lake Tanganyika and Victoria combined. Block 10BB alone looks bigger than the size of England.

It seems counter-intuitive to think of a rift basin as being 'sewn up,' but figuratively speaking, that is what Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage position implies. We are most excited about the tertiary rift trend, which extends north-south from the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, to Blocks 10BB and 13T (adjacent) and Block 12A in Kenya (Figure 4).

Extrapolating surface geology into the sub surface

There are structures on the edge of the lake, and a big Cretaceous outcrop in Block 10BA. This holds out the potential prospect of two plays stacked on top of each other, where the Cretaceous and Tertiary rift trends intersect. From the perspective of suitable setting for source rocks, vintage seismic shows a deep graben that is also visible on newer seismic in the South Omo Block. There are also surface seeps visible on the lake.

We would like to see an acceleration of drilling

Accelerating drilling and 'chasing' the play northwards into the 'golden' blocks 10BA and South Omo is an issue of logistics and funding. Management have indicated that drilling plans could change subject to these issues.

Africa Oil had $118m of cash on its balance sheet at the end of 2011. Combined with Tullow's $23.75m carry, Africa oil is funded for around 6-7 wells in 2012. These are part of a wider 7-10 well programme that includes two wells in Puntland-Somaliland that will be drilled by Horn Petroleum (owned 51% by Africa Oil). We estimate something in the region of an additional $100m would be required for a further six wells.

A tentative estimate of NPV per barrel

Africa Oil’s acreage represents a vast, underexplored proven petroleum system. Five years ago, it looked similar to the Albert basin in Uganda, with numerous oil seeps, limited geophysical mapping and only a handful of older wells.

In terms of valuation, Uganda also provides an analogue. Discovered resource in Uganda slowly increased to 1.1bn boe from 11 consecutive discoveries by Tullow. Value was crystallised through the farming-down of two-thirds of this for USD 2.9bn, which equates to around $4/boe. This number is in line with Heritage Oil's initial $1.5bn sale of 355 mmboe of contingent resource in Ugandan Blocks 1 and 3A to Tullow in Uganda.

This is also in line with our NPV of $4.2/boe, derived from a generic full-field DCF that incorporates our understanding of the Kenyan fiscal regime. This is based on an expected success case which assumes that enough hydrocarbons are proved up to underpin a commercial development. In general terms, we assume a 600km heated pipeline to the port of Lamu for export lies within the PSC ring fence and is cost recoverable. Our generic field has a plateau production rate of 200 kboe/d, similar to volumes targeted in Uganda. We assume no royalty and a profit oil split that ranges between 20-50% depending on production volumes.

The multiplier effect across a huge resource potential

We stress that, as a pure exploration company, Africa Oil is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves. Key risks are disappointing well results and political risk in East Africa.

An exploration valuation at this stage generally benefits from a low starting base and the law of large numbers. The $/boe and risked resource numbers that are incorporated into a Risked NAV framework are effectively small valuation levers that can make a big difference.

The chance of success applied to Africa Oil's 5.3bn boe resource estimate is the starting point. Our tentative 550 mmboe resource estimates for the Ngamia trend prospects in Blocks 10BB and 13T are risked at just over 50%. We only apply a 6% chance of success to the remaining 4bn+ boe of prospective resource. This results in our Risked NAV of SEK 74 (CAD 11).
To reflect the valuation scenarios that we have been asked to run, we also provide a sensitivity table that shows theoretical valuations on differing resource and NPV $/boe values in Table 5.

Risks to our TP

As a name purely geared to exploration, Africa Oil is at the very early stages of the oil and gas development cycle. From an investment perspective, value creation for E&P companies lies in de-risking and appraising prospects in their portfolio or, more generally, finding hydrocarbons. Consequently, we stress that it is a highly speculative stock, with no production, cash flow or 2P reserves.

For E&P stocks in general, we would expect the share price to move with exploration news flow and ultimately re-rate (or de-rate) upon exploration success (or failure). Key risks are disappointing well results, changes to the drilling schedule, lack of funding and political risk in East Africa.

In the case of Africa Oil, the ability to access external financing is itself speculative in nature, and can be dependent on the exploration success (or failure) of its drilling programme.

[gimo211]

... Ich glaube, die halbe (AOI-) Welt ist nun auf einen "älteren" Nomura-Report hereingefallen... Das eben zitierte ist von April 2012 - nach der Ngamia-Discovery... Trotzdem interessant zu lesen...

Entstanden ist das Ganze, weil User NgamiaSwede, der ziemlich gut vernetzt ist, einen neuen Nomura-Report zitiert... Dieser hat übrigens offenbar einen höheren Target Price: SEK 88 - demnach wäre der aktuelle Report noch mehr lesenswert... Nur den hat bislang noch niemand irgendwo gepostet...

SORRY!!

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.515.623 von gimo211 am 25.04.13 21:43:27

Von User NgamiaSwede @ Stockhouse.com (many thanks)

... Was nun tatsächlich im aktuellen Nomura-Report steht:


1. Core Lokichar basin: The path to 1bn boe

We argue last week’s flow rate:

1) demonstrated productivity of the Lower Lokhone
sands and de-risked an additional 43m of “possible net pay” at Ngamia;
2) de-risked Etuko which is targeting a large Lower Lokhone section in the basin flank.

In the ‘core’ Lokichar basin we estimate the path to 1bn boe as:

1) 250mmboe of discovered resource,
2) 6x prospects targeting 300-400mmboe on the basin bounding fault; and
3) 3x prospects targeting 300-600mmboe in the basin flank.

[motz1]

Nicht viel los zur Zeit. Hier ein Artikel, gefunden auf stockhouse:

--------------

Time Running Out to Grab Juniors in Kenya Before They Make Huge Gains
April 29, 2013

Investors: Time may be running out to grab juniors in Kenya before they make their huge gains.

The region’s biggest players and fastest movers are gearing up for a flurry of activity over the next 6 months. A number of catalysts about to happen in East Africa could set off a sea change in valuations, as the full-scale development of the Anza Basin begins to take shape.



Regional catalysts in the coming four months:
Major farm-out agreement–Taipan Resources
Spudding of Bahasi-1—Africa Oil
Optimization of Twiga South-1—Africa Oil/Tullow
Further testing on Ngamia-1—Africa Oil/Tullow


1. Taipan farm-out—Q2-Q3 2013:

Last summer Africa Oil [AOI:CA] announced the signing of a farmout deal worth $78 million on Block 9 with US giant Marathon Oil [MRO:NYSE].

This year, the market is curious about the adjacent Block 2B, which is held 100% by Taipan Resources [TPN:CA], and is actively being shopped for a partner. Who that will be with, and what value that deal will come with is still up in the air.

When these farmout deals are done, the major producer coming into the play usually pays all previous exploration dollars, and carries the junior through any remaining seismic and 1-2 wells.

That would put Taipan trading at or under its cash value, which is almost always the best time to get in on a junior.

In the meantime, Taipan has been fulfilling all of its commitments through completing its 439 sq km seismic program, all while keeping its gaze on neighboring Block 9. The Africa Oil/Marathon duo is quite active, and will provide further data for Taipan and its speculators in the market to consider when tallying its new valuation.

The most recent NI 51-101 compliant resource estimate on Taipan’s Block 2B from Sproule International estimates an unrisked prospective resource of 387 million barrels. Coming from 17 leads, with prospects ranging in size from 2.5 million barrels to 128 million barrels, with potential for multiple stacked horizons.

Recently the company announced that it has wrapped up the first phase of the exploration period. In doing so, they have effectively competed what was to be a 3-year work program, in only 8 months. It is expected that Taipan will soon announce the initiation of an additional exploration period that will include the drilling of its first well.




2. Spudding of Bahasi-1 (formerly “Kinyonga”)—Q3 2013:

Scheduled to spud in Q3 2013, the upcoming Bahasi-1 well is expected to be a huge boost to the Africa Oil/Marathon partnership, as well as for their neighbors. Drilling both tertiary and cretaceous rock, the goal of Bahasi to target a structure believed to be 60 metres in thickness.

From a geological perspective, the play has what it takes to be big: it’s a large anticlinal structure, trapped by a 4-way closure, which keeps the hydrocarbons they are targeting in place.

But the true excitement regarding the play’s potential comes from the fact that over 6 billion barrels of oil have been discovered along trend in Sudan, under very similar geologic conditions.

This is one of, if not THE biggest target being drilled onshore in East Africa this year, and would provide a regional catalyst for all players, says Adam Zive, a director of Taipan Resources.

“I think the potential analogue that the market is probably not appreciating enough is particularly this Bahasi-1 well on Block 9 right beside us,” says Zive. According to Africa Oil’s presentation, this prospect has a best estimate of 320 million barrels and a high estimate of 656 million barrels.



3. Ngamia-1 Well: Testing—Q3 2013:

Bahasi-1’s multiple-horizon potential mimics that of Africa Oil’s other well, Ngamia-1 which was drilled with AOI’s other partner, Tullow. Located to the west of Block 9 in Block 10BB, Ngamia presents plenty of potential. After already proving the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone formation, up next will be 5 more tests into the Auwerwer sandstone formation. The partnership believes that the Auwerwer has a higher quality reservoir than the Lower Lokhone, and the results from the tests are expected in less than three months.



4. Twiga South-1: Increase Production—Q3 2013:

Africa Oil is counting on Ngamia’s entry into the Auwerwer zones to provide closer results to those found in their Twiga South-1 well, also with partner Tullow. This well was much bigger; testing for a combined rate of 2,812 barrels per day of 37 API oil from three Auwerwer zones.

Twiga is actually considered to be an underperforming well. Unfit surface equipment that was initially set in place is believed to be choking off the well’s true potential, and the partnership has stated that, “with optimized equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bbls/d.”

That’s what the market wants to see—5,000 bopd + production from these frontier plays. Just getting the right equipment in place should make this happen. As Africa Oil and Tullow iron out the kinks, the entire play benefits.

As well, the partnership is re-entering the Block with another well in the first half of May, with its Etuko-1 well.

In this part of the world, especially with wells costing upwards of $15 million, it’s incredibly valuable to mitigate risk ahead of time. Observing your neighbors as they break new ground can make all the difference.

Heading north to south down the east coast of Kenya, Africa Oil is active in Block 9, then Taipan in the middle in Block 2B and junior Vanoil [VLE:CA] is also set to spud its first well on Block 3A to the immediate south of Block 2B.

Much like Africa Oil’s Paipai-1 well located on Block 10A, Vanoil’s well will be specifically targeting cretaceous rock. Located at a deeper depth, the cretaceous presents a higher-pressure zone that Vanoil says is in the oil window. These predictions come from the positive results that Paipai delivered, which encountered 55m thick hydrocarbon shows.

Both Taipan and Vanoil are set to benefit from planned infrastructure in the play. Vanoil already has plenty of roads crisscrossing its block, but for both companies the biggest benefit is that of proposed pipelines that come through their vicinity.

“There are a number of pipeline routes that are under discussion right now, but the ones that are the most likely are about 175 kilometers to the south of our block,” says Zive, as the Taipan team postures itself for future production. “But either way, even without a pipeline being built, we can truck oil out when the time comes after a potential discovery.”

Before either junior realizes its commercial potential, many eyes will be on the neighboring projects of Africa Oil and its partners. Investors from the United States will especially be intrigued by the projects involving Marathon, as it would be the first US-based Kenyan oil success story.

The landscape of Kenya’s oil story is set to make a big change, with several near term catalysts. The opportunity window for juniors in the region is closing fast, and the potential is about to be realized. It’s going to be an exciting six months.

http://thehydrocarbon.com/2013/04/29/time-running-out-to-gra…

[motz1]

In der April-Ausgabe des oilvoice-Magazins ist ein interessanter Artikel zum Thema FTG erschienen.
Verfasst von einem ARKeX Mitarbeiter, Seiten 10-15 (Download rund 4,5mb). ARKeX sitzt in UK und ist das Unternehmen, welches die FTG-Daten für Tullow sammelt. Der Artikel veranschaulicht technische Zusammenhänge anhand des Beispiels des East African Rift, Uganda und Kenya werden genannt...

-------------

OilVoice Magazine | APRIL 2013

Insight: The increasing use of Gravity Gradiometry in the Exploration Workflow

Written by David Jackson from ARKeX

Overview of Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry
Gravity gradiometry is the study and measurement of spatial variations in the acceleration due to gravity. The gravity gradient is the spatial rate of change of gravitational acceleration.
Gravity gradiometry data is used by oil, gas and mining companies to measure the density of the subsurface, effectively the rate of change of rock properties. It offers a step change in resolution and bandwidth from that of conventional airborne gravity data. The acquired gravity gradiometry data assists in the building of sub-surface geological models to aid exploration.

What is it?
Gravity gradiometry measures the variations in the acceleration due to gravity between two or more points. The gravity gradient is the spatial rate of change of gravitational acceleration. It can be deduced by differencing the value of gravity at two points separated by a small distance and dividing by this distance. The two gravity measurements are provided by accelerometers which are matched and aligned to a high level of accuracy.

...

Benefits for regional exploration programs
- Improved definition of sedimentary and internal architecture
- Identification of structural leads which can become the focus for further
seismic acquisition
- early seismic in the basin can be calibrated to the FTG and if necessary, the seismic program can be altered in areas of shallow basement or insufficient depth of burial of potential source rocks
- a fast and efficient way of exploring vast exploration acreage

Gesamter Artikel: http://www.oilvoice.com/magazine/editions/oilvoice_13_April2…

[gimo211]

Nomura heute zu Sabisa... (Erneut thanks to NgamiaSwede @ Stockhouse.com)

Published on Wednesday, 01 May 2013 13:10
Written by Will Peters



"Despite inconclusive initial results at Sabisa, we have not ruled out a small technical discovery (potentially liquids) that provides a better indication of the sweet spot in the basin. We believe Sabisa is unlikely to be a hub-class discovery like Ngamia, but note that modest discoveries in frontier basins can allow seismic to be calibrated and lead to material discoveries, as Tullow demonstrated with Jobi-Rii in Uganda," says analyst Tom Robinson at Nomura.

According to Robinson Sabisa is targeting c. 60mmboe (gross) and we carry SEK 0.4/2.1 (risked/unrisked) for Africa Oil and 2p/9p for Tullow.

[motz1]

Von User NgamiaSwede auf Stockhouse - many thanks!

Kurz zum unten erwähnten "Jobi-Rii" (Uganda): Geläufigerer Name dafür ist Buffalo-Giraffe, die bis heute größte Discovery von Tullow in Uganda...

-----------------

Tullow Oil plc, Premier Oil plc and Energy Plc : Why Nomura are bullish on these Africa-facing oil majors this May

DetailsCategory: Share Price Drivers
Published on Wednesday, 01 May 2013 13:10
Written by Will Peters

A number of European oil firms with prospects in Africa are tipped to have an exciting May say Nomura who have told clients today that they are bullish this sector.

Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW)
Africa Oil/Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) will see results flow from their Sabisa sidetrack.
"Despite inconclusive initial results at Sabisa, we have not ruled out a small technical discovery (potentially liquids) that provides a better indication of the sweet spot in the basin. We believe Sabisa is unlikely to be a hub-class discovery like Ngamia, but note that modest discoveries in frontier basins can allow seismic to be calibrated and lead to material discoveries, as Tullow demonstrated with Jobi-Rii in Uganda," says analyst Tom Robinson at Nomura.

According to Robinson Sabisa is targeting c. 60mmboe (gross) and we carry SEK 0.4/2.1 (risked/unrisked) for Africa Oil and 2p/9p for Tullow.

[...]

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/331…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.548.319 von gimo211 am 01.05.13 18:02:08

Sorry, ich war zu langsam...

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.548.335 von motz1 am 01.05.13 18:03:41

manchmal entscheiden Zehntel...

Wie schätz Du diese heutige Meldung ein, motz1?

Ich frage mich, ob das eventuell bewusst so platziert wird (und faktisch vom Operator gesteuert ist), um den Markt etwas vorzubereiten - quasi Erwartungs-Management...?

Vor dem side track hatten wir ja 3 Zonen of interest und eigentlich noch einiges zu drillen.... eventuell sollten wir von Sabisa jetzt nicht mehr all zu viel erwarten...

Andererseits kann das auch nur Spekulation ohne weitergehende Insides sein...

[motz1]

Tja. Manchmal auch Jahre - man wird halt älter .

Hm, "have not ruled out a small technical discovery (potentially liquids)" hört sich nicht unbedingt überschwänglich an. Wir wissen aber von dem was Ngamia-Swede gepostet hat, dass Nomura insgesamt recht positiv gestimmt ist.

Die Aussage deutet imho aber schon etwas in die Richtung, dass Sabisa kein zweites Ngamia sein wird. Und zwar dahingehend, dass Ngamia einerseits sehr große net pay-Werte lieferte, andererseits auch als "basin opener" mit einigen follow ups angesehen werden muss (="hub class-discovery"?).
Allerdings könnte ich mir damit auch "Licht und Schatten" erklären; im Lokichar Basin ist alles bestens, außerhalb gibt es eben noch keine "hub-class discovery". Aber ich wage nicht zu mutmaßen was für Nomura "small" ist - wenn Ngamia der Referenzpunkt für "hub-class" ist, dann kann vieles andere (<=140m net pay) als "klein" gelten...

Aber hey, es stehen an: Ngamia-flowrates, Etuko (wenn ich mich richtig erinnere der Lieblingsprospect von AOI), das New-Age-Drilling, ... sorry, ich schweife ab...

Also eins ist klar: Zumindest in dem Bereich werden keine Minutenbruchteile entscheiden . "Rentenpapiere".

[gabbo62]

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-start-oil-produc…


Kenya to start oil production in six years, says IMF

[niki550525]

So nun habe ich entlich auch mal wieder Zeit gefunden um hier etwas über Charttechnik zu schreiben.
Erst mal was über den Candlestik:
Am 30.04. wurde ein BUY Confirmd erzeugt. Seit dem ist der Kurs um 6,16% getiegen.
Charttechnisch sieht es wieder besser aus:
Slow STO ist wieder im grünen Bereich 39,31 zu 35,19 %
MACD ebenfalls leicht im grünen Bereich -0,220 zu -0,253 (rote Linie)
RSI liegt bei 48,44% und benötigt noch etwas über 1,5% um auch in den grünen Bereich zu gelangen.
SAR momentan bei 6,75 CAN$. Hier fehlen noch 0,37 CAN$ um ebenfalls in den grünen Bereich zu gelangen.
Widerstand wird durch MA50 bei 6,79 CAN$ gebildet bei. Sollten wir den Kurs erreichen, währe auch das erste GAP bei ca. 6,75 CAN$ geschlossen. Sollten wir über der MA 50 schließen, ist der nächste Widerstand bei 7,50 CAN$
Ich habe meine Stücke immer noch und überlege eventuell noch einen Zukauf.Dies kann ich aber nur durch Umschichtung und die Aktien fangen auch zu laufen an. Mal sehen....
Niki

[motz1]

Ein schönes Filmchen über Tullow - sollte man mal reinschauen wenn man sich für's Thema interessiert...

Many thanks to artie520/stockhouse!

-------------------------

Tullow Oil plc, Finding The Prize: A story of oil exploration and discovery.

[motz1]

Eine neue Woche steht bevor, die Wahrscheinlichkeit auf News morgen oder a Mittwoch ist gar nicht mal so schlecht, wie ich glaube .


Tullow hat am Mittwoch (08.05.) ihr Interim Management Statement & Annual General Meeting. http://www.tullowoil.com/

Wer in letzter Zeit den Kursverlauf von Tullow verfolgt hat kann nachvollziehen, dass es für deren CEO Aidan Heavey wahrscheinlich ein nicht ganz angenehmer Termin wird .

Daher meine Vermutung, er könnte die Lage mit News aufzubessern versuchen. Flowrates von einer/mehreren Ngamia-Zonen oder ein paar Sabisa-Details könnten ja durchaus zur Gesamtlaune beitragen...


Einen guten Start in die Woche...

-------

Hier noch ein Interview mit Lucas Lundin. Es geht einerseits um Lundins selbst, andererseits gibt es kurze Schlaglichter auf die derzeit aktiven Unternehmen der Gruppe.

Ein Auszug:

"[...] The Lundins control exploration, development and production interests covering virtually every commodity around the world. For over 40 years, they’ve been one of the sharpest organizations in the sector, identifying exceptional resource projects, unlocking their value, and earning tens of billions for investors.

Family patriarch Adolf Lundin, who succumbed to leukemia in 2006, devoted the better part of his life to wildcatting, taking spectacular risks that eventually paid off.

In one of his first forays into the business in 1972, Adolf famously bet a Qatari Sheikh a million dollars it would rain the following day in the deserts of Qatar. The Sheikh accepted the bet and won. Shortly thereafter, Lundin was granted the licenses that led to the discovery of one the world’s largest gas/condensate fields.

With no guts, no glory as their family motto, the Lundins are just as comfortable in the jungles and deserts of Congo and Kurdistan as they are in boardrooms in Vancouver and Geneva. In 1992, with sons Lukas and Ian on board, the family invested $12 million in an Argentinian copper asset, Bajo de la Alumbrera. In 1995, it sold for $500 million. Today, the Lundin Organization controls mining and energy interests worth over $13 billion.
[...]"

http://ceo.ca/lukas-lundin/

----------------------------

In Uganda scheint es ein Schrittlein mit der Pipeline voranzugehen:

"[...] A statement published by the office of President Yoweri Museveni, on April 14, 2013, said the parties have agreed to start with the refinery size of 30,000 barrels per day,” The president reportedly stressed that he wanted a final deal quickly, in the form of a memorandum of understanding that would include the construction of a pipeline to neighbouring Kenya for exports.

“We have wasted too much time. We are now with the issue of oil for seven years. We need to make our final decisions,” Museveni reportedly told the oil companies and government officials.
[...]"

http://africaoilgasreport.com/2013/05/refining-gap/at-last-t…

[motz1]

Das Short Volume ist nochmals um gut 10% gesunken:

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
401,765......30/Apr/2013
447,631......15/Apr/2013
1,516,309...31/Mar/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Ein Überblick über die Länder Kenia, Äthiopien, Uganda, Mozambik und Tansania bzgl. O&G von Deloitte (46 Seiten):

"The Deloitte Guide to Oil and Gas in East Africa - Where potential lies"

http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-Kenya/Local%20Assets/Doc…


-------------------------

Von User RionsRun/Stockhouse:


Energy wins big in budget allocations
Updated Friday, May 3rd 2013 a 22:10 GMT +3

By Macharia Kamau

NAIROBI, KENYA: Treasury has allocated Sh78.5 billion to the Energy and Petroleum Ministry with a focus on increasing electricity generation and prepariing areas where oil deposits have been discovered for commercial production.

The allocation to the ministry is among the largest for the 2013/2014 financial year. The bulk of the amount allocated to the ministry will, however, go towards boosting electricity generation.

A substantial Sh76.4 billion has been set aside for increasing the electricity generation capacity as well as growing the number of people connected to the national electricity grid.

A further Sh1 billion will be used in oil exploration, including further research on areas that have potential to have oil deposits.

Despite increased pushed for renewable energy, the Government has set aside some Sh492 million for clean energy projects.

Kenya has an installed capacity of 1,600 megawatts, about 60 per cent of which is sourced from hydro electricity dams. Despite a huge potential in geothermal sources – estimated to have a capacity to generate over 7,000mw – the country has an installed capacity of about 200mw. There are, however, plans to double this over the next two years.

In addition to expanding electricity generation projects, significant amounts has to go towards setting initial stages for commercial production of crude oil recently discovered in Turkana.

“The ministry intends to continue its investments in the generation of additional geothermal power at Olkaria wellheads, hydropower development, renewable energy promotion and development, fossil fuel exploration and development, promote rural electrification, energy sector regulation, security and conservation,” said the budget estimates table in Parliament Tuesday.

The quality and quantity supply are currently major issues for both domestic and large consumers, with unreliable and highly priced electricity cited as among the factors that have hindered growth of sectors such as manufacturing.

It is also looking at further studies on areas that have potential for oil. It said the Sh1 billion for oil exploration will be used to avail data on petroleum unlicensed blocks to attract investments in exploration.

Prospecting firms in Kenya have found oil deposits in Turkana County that they say are commercially viable. Tullow Oil – the firm that made the announcement in March last year- is still undertaking tests to determine the actual amount of oil deposits in the blocks that it operates in Turkana.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000082912&story_t…

-----------

Eine Google-übersetzte Meldung aus Schweden - thanks to user freddahl/stockhouse!

---

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) A further delay in when drilling results can be expected in Sabisabrunnen, of central importance to Africa Oil's Ethiopian oil exploration, can not be excluded.
That said, great owner Lukas Lundin Direkt after the AGM in Vostok Nafta, the investment company of which he is Chairman.
"Africa Oil has announced the results of Sabisa-drilling is expected in late May, but it is not impossible that it will take longer," he said about Sabisa with reference to the previous forecast: mid April said Lukas Lundin told Bloomberg News that drilling results could be expected by the end of May, which was two months later than previously stated.

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.571.349 von motz1 am 05.05.13 22:10:46

Tullows Interim Management Statement ist da.

Nicht viel neues, im Header steht folgender Satz: "In Kenya, the Twiga South-1 well test has confirmed good productivity in the South Lokichar Basin and in Ethiopia there are encouraging signs from the Sabisa-1 well."

Aber: Ein light-rig ab September, Etuko-Spud in den kommenden 2 Wochen, jetzt über 120 leads & prospects. Nice .

------------------------

Kenya & Ethiopia
Our high impact exploration campaign continues across Kenya and Ethiopia, with significant ongoing seismic operations, three active rigs and a further rig contracted to start activities in September 2013. In the remainder of 2013 we plan to acquire 2D and 3D seismic, drill a further seven wells and perform significant testing operations.

In Kenya, the Paipai-1 well was drilled in March 2013 and encountered light hydrocarbon shows whilst drilling and has been suspended pending agreement on future evaluation options. The testing of the Twiga South-1 discovery was completed in February 2013; a constrained combined rate of 2,812 bopd was achieved and has the potential to be increased to an unconstrained rate of over 5,000 bopd. Testing at the Ngamia-1 discovery is still in progress and the first test, from a zone previously considered to be non-productive and not included in previous estimates of net pay, flowed at a cumulative rate of 281 bopd. A further five tests are planned over the next month and are expected to lead to an increase in the previous total net pay of 100 metres. The test results to date on Twiga South and Ngamia are extremely encouraging for the Lockichar Basin and are important steps towards understanding the commerciality of these discoveries and the overall potential of the basin.

The next exploration well is Etuko-1, which is expected to spud within the next two weeks. This well is testing the first prospect in the Basin Flank play, and is more centrally located in the basin compared to Ngamia and Twiga South which were drilled along the basin bounding fault. A lighter, more mobile rig has been contracted to start work in September 2013 which will primarily be used to increase drilling efficiency by conducting testing operations and drilling shallow prospects and evaluation wells.

The first exploration well in Ethiopia, Sabisa-1 has been drilled to a total depth of 1,810 metres, recording hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal. Due to hole instability issues, a sidetrack will be drilled to enable us to log and sample the zones of interest, with a result expected in late May 2013.

Seismic activity has included an extensive survey in Block 10BB/North West Block 12A in Kenya and 1,174 km 2D seismic has been acquired over the Chew Bahir basin in the South Omo block in Ethiopia. Both surveys have identified numerous attractive leads and prospects, some with amplitude anomalies characteristic of hydrocarbons, raising the total prospect and lead count in the acreage to over 120.

[...]

http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137&newsid=842

[motz1]

Die PR-Abteilung von AOI in Person von Aidan Heavy (Tullow-Chef) reagiert wie vermutet: Er zeigt Perspektiven

-----------------------

Tullow Oil to Seek Kenya Partners as Finds Make Exports Viable
By Eduard Gismatullin - May 8, 2013 12:45 PM GMT+0200

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW), the U.K. explorer that found Kenya’s first oil, plans to secure partners to develop fields in the African nation as discoveries prove that future crude exports are viable.

Tullow together with partner Africa Oil Corp. (AOI) plans to drill about 10 wells in Kenya and Ethiopia this year to explore the Turkana Rift Basin that stretches between the two countries. Tullow plans to sell part of its stake in five licenses in Kenya, Chief Executive Officer Aidan Heavey said.

“It’s never been our intention to stick with 50 percent all the way through,” Heavey said today in London. “It’s too much for any company, even a major company.” If local roads were improved, Tullow could start producing from Kenya now, possibly trucking crude to the refinery in Mombasa, he said.

Tullow, based in London, has drilled three wells in Kenya with the first oil discovery at the Ngamia well and the first commercial flow from the Twiga well in the South Lokichar Basin. The nation may export its first crude at the same time as Uganda, where Tullow is working with Total SA (FP) and Cnooc Ltd. (883) to develop the Lake Albert fields, Heavey told reporters.

“A few more wells may actually prove it to be a major development” the CEO said. “If that’s the case, then the pipeline from Uganda could quite easily go through Lokichar, pick up the oil there” for exports through an Indian Ocean port. “What we are trying to do is to bring in the right type of partners and we get them to come up with financing.”

Unlike landlocked Uganda, Kenya doesn’t require running an export pipeline across other countries, he said. Tullow will bring a fourth rig to the region to accelerate drilling later this year and will increase the Ngamia well resource estimate “quite significantly” following “encouraging” tests.

In West Africa, the company is looking for partners to sell part of its largest stakes in exploration licenses in deep waters off Mauritania, Heavey said.

Tullow global oil and gas producing projects generate enough cash to spend about $1 billion a year on exploration.

“We are focused on building the biggest exploration business around,” Heavey said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/tullow-oil-to-seek-…

[niki550525]

Klasse Anstieg heute. Mittlerweile 930k Umsatz.
SAR wurde bei 5,60 CAN$ getroffen und steht nun bei 5,51 CAN$.
Der Anstieg von 0,39 = 6,17% mit diesem Volumen ist ein klares Zeichen. Sollte die MA50 bei derzeit 6,69CAN$ nachhaltig und bis Handelsschluss überschritten werden, ist mit weiteren Anstieg zu Rechnen.7,80 CAN$ ist das nächste Ziel :-)
Niki

[gimo211]

Hi motz1,

Das der Short-Bestand schmilzt, ist angesichts der News-Lage keine Überraschung...

Das war doch in vielerlei Hinsicht interessant gestern...

Zunächst haben wir als unmittelbare News den spud von Etuko und die Testergebnisse zu den drei "zones of interest" bei Sabisa zu erwarten. Beides in den nächsten 2-3 Wochen.

Etuko ist ein giant prospect.

Bei Sabisa rechne ich inzwischen nicht mehr, dass man - wegen der "well instability" - noch tiefer (zur ursprünglich geplantem TD) drillen wird. Der side track (wer weiß, wieviele side tracks inzwischen notwendig waren) scheint nur noch den Zweck zu haben, die drei Zonen zu loggen und MDT-Samples zu entnehmen. Sollte sich dabei eine signifikante Pay Zone bestätigen, würde dieses ein kompletten de-risk für das gesamte Tertiary Rift System von Ethiopien bis zum Lokichar Basin erbringen. Nicht auszudenken, was das bedeuten würde...

Ich denke, die tieferen Zonen würde man dann mit einer follow up well im South Omo Block testen.

Sehr interessant sind dann die Testergebnisse zu Ngamia (in etwa 4 Wochen). So, wie sich Tullow hier heraus lehnt, kann man nur Großes erwarten. Ngamia ist vermutlich tatsächlich eine Giant Discovery. Ich halte 350+ mmbbls allein bei Ngamia nicht für ausgeschlossen...

... Und dann die Ankündigung, diverse major Partner zu suchen...

Wenn man die News erinnert, dass CNOOC sich bereits in das Lokichar Basin einkauft, dann scheint ein Szenario nicht unrealistisch, dass man an die Chinesen jeweils 25% plus Operator ship bei den Blöcken 13T und 10BB abgibt. Die Frage ist, was die Chinesen für ein 50% WI im Lokichar Basin zahlen würden...

Wenn jedoch Ngamia so groß wird, wie ich nun erwarte und wenn auch Etuko ein Treffer wird, dann werden die prospektiven Resourcen in beiden Blöcken signifikant erhöht werden. Wer weiß, ich halte 3-5 Milliarden bbls nicht für vollkommen ausgeschlossen... Wenn man nur 1 Dollar als farm-in Preis annehmen würde, wäre dass ein fantastischer Deal für die Chinesen, würde uns aber ebenfalls einen Milliarden Dollar Wert in die Kassen spülen und AOI würde zu einem mid-tier Explorer transformiert werden. Well funded for years.... I like this scenatio...

... Viel Spekulation, ich weiß... Aber auch nicht vollkommener "Irrsinn"...

[motz1]

@Niki: Thx für die Chart-Betrachtung. Ich hoffe der gestrige SK der nur knapp über der von dir genannten Marke lag ist "nachhaltig" genug. 7,80 CAD wäre mir sehr recht, und dann die Ngamia flow rates...

------------------

gimo211,

auf Stockhouse gibt es Spekulationen zum Grund der instability - die Vermutung ist, dass es sich um Bohrschlamm auf Wasserbasis handelt und dieser wiederum dem Sandstein zusetzt (klingt logisch).

Was Ngamia anbelangt wird es imho so sein, dass es mit der Zeit "wachsen" wird. Tullow hat nun die Lower Lokhone-Zone bestätigt, die AOI mit 40m net pay veranschlagte. Ziemliches Upside. Zudem war Ngamia-1 nicht im sweet spot gedrillt...


Im Prinzip habe ich nichts gegen CNOOC. Außer dass sie in Block 9 "äußerst unglücklich agiert" oder man könnte auch sagen "gepfuscht" haben. Boghal zu verschmähen war nicht sonderlich clever.

hippyboy hat auf stockhouse folgenden -meiner Meinung nach sehr zutreffenden- Beitrag dazu geschrieben:
"Is there any doubt that in the end it will be CNOOC who buys into Kenya.
Forget the uganda oil, proposed pipeline, lack of infrastructre, cost of development, etc.
This is not about money, its about internal domestic stability in China.
Over the next 20 years China faces the huge task of transitioning its 1.3 billion population from a rural farming existance into an industrial based economy, all the while averting social, political and economic revolution. That interest is best sereved by securing resources, energy, a consumer market for goods and increasing global Chinese influence.
Unlike other major oil compaqnies who only are accountable to share holders and only seek to maximize profits, CNOOC was created to be an instrument of the Chinese government’s political, economic and foreign policy.
China does not care about money, they covet internal stability. The will pay a premium to what ever commercial interests further that goal.
They buy US bebt because they need the largest consumer market in the world to buy their junk, they pay a 66 percent premium for nexen because they need the oil, they will continue to develop relations with africa in order to turn the continent into a consumer market for chinese goods, they will buy east africa oil because unlike the US influenced middle east, they will have control over the oil in africa."

Das ist aus meiner Sicht eine gute Einschätzung der Lage. Das ganze hat geopolitischen Charakter und verschiebt bzw. manifestiert internationale Machtverhältnisse.
Alles was Tullow/AOI aus meiner Sicht tun kann und muss ist sicherzustellen, dass CNOOC (oder wer auch immer rein will) nicht zu billig davon kommt.

Die Ausgaben zur Erschließung/Kommerzialisierung der Blöcke und dem Aufbau der notwendigen Infrastruktur werden exorbitant. Die resultierenden Gewinne aber auch - wie lange AOI da WIs in dieser Größenordnung "verantworten" kann werden wir sehen...

Also: Spekulation teilweise ja aber mit vielen Anhaltspunkten - Irrsinn sieht anders aus.


Just my 2 pence



P.s.: Zu den Ngamia-flows hatte ich noch im Hinterkopf, dass wir im Herbst letzten Jahres schon spekuliert hatten. Hier mal die damaligen Überlegungen:

Zitat von motz1: [...]

Was wäre für dich eine "gute" Flowrate? Ich habe für mich, nach dem was ich zu Uganda und Ngamia-1 gelesen habe, folgende Grobeinteilung:
>5000bopd sind gut
10-15000bopd sind wahrscheinlich
>15000bopd sind sehr gut
Ist das realistisch?

Interessant sind die "Experten" die jetzt langsam auf die mögliche zukünftige Dimension von AOI hinweisen (was du schon vor über einem Jahr aufgezeigt hast). Z.B. hier auf BNN: http://watch.bnn.ca/the-street/september-2012/the-street-sep…
Ganz zum Schluss fällt die Aussage: "...very rarely in your own lifetime do you see the opening up of brand new basins...".
KH hat in der Stockholm-Präsentation -aus seiner Sicht- von einer once in a lifetime-opportunity gesprochen. Ich denke unsere chinesischen Freunde und deren Artverwandten müssen sich daran gewöhnen, dass es teuer werden könnte.
Und ich bleibe noch ein Bisschen .

[gimo211]

Motz1,

wichtig ist noch, dass der erfolgreiche Flow Test im lower Lokhone Sandstone nicht nur die Pay Zone bei Ngamia auf +- 140m bringt (und somit die Größe dieser Discovery signifikant erhöht), sondern insbesondere auch die CoS für Etuko-1 deutlich verbessert. Dort liegt der lower Lokhone Sandstone höher als bei Ngamia und ist (neben dem Auwerwer sds) das Haupt Target des Drillings....

Und eine Discovery östlich der String of Pearls würde das Erfolgskonzept dramatisch erweitern.... Öl Akkumulationen nicht nur entlang der boundery fault würden völlig neue Perspektiven auf die inzwischen 120 prospects und leads werfen... (das muss Tullow meinen, wenn sie sagen, das ist alles zu groß - selbst für einen Major...)

Once in a live time opportunity - das trifft es in meinen Augen ziemlich gut...

Zu Sabisa well Instabilität: water based Drilling mud könnte tatsächlich eine mögliche Ursache sein (und würde für exzellente Reservoir Bedingungen sprechen...). Aber was immer auch der Grund ist, in ca 2 Wochen wissen wir wohl, was die "3 zones of interest" für uns mitbringen werden... Daumen drücken...

[motz1]

Thx an gimo211 für die -wie immer aufschlussreichen- Ausführungen!


Habe noch einen Artikel zu Tullow gefunden, betrifft AOI im gleichen Umfang...

----------------

Kenya ready to produce oil ‘now’



Aidan Heavey, Chief Executive of Tullow Oil said the company is ready to start oil production “now” if the road network is improved. PHOTO/FILE NATION


In Summary

•A further five tests are planned over the next month and are expected to lead to an increase in the previous total net pay of 100 metres.


Kenya could start producing oil earlier than expected, with the company currently exploring oil saying it’s ready to start production “now” if the road network is improved.

This, according to Tullow Oil chief executive officer, Mr Aidan Heavey would make it possible for transportation of crude oil to Mombasa refinery pending construction of a pipeline.
Experts estimate that it will take three to five years to lay the pipeline and related infrastructure to Mombasa allowing pumping of the crude oil.

Scouting for partners

“If local roads were improved, Tullow could start producing from Kenya now, possibly trucking crude to the refinery in Mombasa,” Mr Heavey told Bloomberg at the side line of the company’s annual general meeting held in London Wednesday.

The company is scouting for partners to finance development of the oil fields in readiness for the production.

“It’s too much for any company, even a major company,” Mr Heavey added.

Tullow Oil and its partner Africa Oil are currently exploring oil in northern Kenya and Ethiopia with result for the first well already termed as commercially viable.

The testing of the Twiga South-1 discovery was completed in February 2013 with a flow rate of 2,812 barrels of oil per day (bopd) was achieved, but according to Tullow, it has the potential to be increased to over 5,000 bopd.

A further five tests are planned over the next month and are expected to lead to an increase in the previous total net pay of 100 metres.

“…the Twiga South-1 well test has confirmed good productivity,” read a statement issued ahead of its AGM. The companies plan to drill 10 more wells.

However, it suspended exploration on its Paipai-1 well in March 2013 after encountering light hydrocarbon shows “pending agreement on future evaluation options.”

Drilling efficiency

The company has contracted a “lighter, more mobile rig has been contracted to start work in September 2013 which will increase drilling efficiency by conducting testing operations and drilling shallow prospects and evaluation wells, the oil explorer said.

Mr Heavey further noted that should a few more wells in Kenya prove significantly productive, a pipeline from its wells in Uganda could be built to go through its wells in Turkana for onward transmission to Mombasa for refining. The pipeline will link the refinery in Uganda to the port of Mombasa.

“Critically, agreement has been reached on a basin commercialisation plan which will include an export pipeline and a refinery sized to meet the local market demand,” Tullow further said.
Raised hopes

Kenya has continued to attract interest following Tullow’s announcement in March last year, it had struck oil in the country raising hopes the country could be holding substantial oil resources.

“The next exploration well is Etuko-1, which is expected to spud within the next two weeks. This well is testing the first prospect in the Basin Flank play, and is more centrally located in the basin compared to Ngamia and Twiga South which were drilled along the basin bounding fault,” the statement added.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Kenya-ready-to-produce…

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS NEWS

May 13, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Announces Etuko-1 Well Spuds in Kenya

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - May 13, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(NASDAQ OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Tullow Oil Plc, the operator of Block 10BB in Kenya, has commenced drilling at the Etuko (formerly Kamba) prospect. This well will target a new play area in the Lockichar Basin where a working petroleum system has been confirmed by recent discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga. The well will focus on the 'eastern flank play' where oil was discovered in 1992 by Shell at the Loperot-1 well. The primary objectives will be the Lower Lokhone and Auwerwer sands, both of which have been shown to be high quality reservoirs containing oil in existing wells. The gross best estimate of prospective resources for the prospect are 231 million barrels of oil based on a third-party Competent Person's Report*. The well is expected to take approximately 60 days to drill and evaluate.

Testing operations continue on the Ngamia #1 well, also in Block 10BB in Kenya, and drilling operations continue on the Sabisa #1 well in the South Omo Block in Ethiopia. A result for Sabisa is expected in late May and Ngamia testing completed in early June.

Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "The Etuko prospect is one of the most attractive prospects in our portfolio and has the potential to open up an new play fairway on the eastern side of the already proven Lockichar Basin. A number of additional prospects and leads will be de-risked on this 'eastern flank' play if the Etuko well is successful. With three rigs active and three more on the way, the second half of 2013 promises to be a very exciting period in the continuing growth story of the Company in East Africa."

About Africa Oil

Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through its approximate 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East African holdings are in within a world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 250,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. New discoveries have been announced on all sides of Africa Oil's virtually unexplored land position including the major Albert Graben oil discovery in neighboring Uganda. Africa Oil's recent Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 discoveries extend the Albert Graben play into Kenya where Africa Oil along with partner Tullow Oil plc hold a dominant acreage position. Newly acquired seismic and gravity data show robust leads and prospects throughout Africa Oil's project areas. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".

*See news release dated August 22, 2012 for further information.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Keith C. Hill, President and CEO

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-announces…

[gimo211]

Offensichtlich laufen bereits die Drill-Site-Vorbereitungen für das Amosing prospect unmittelbar südlich von Ngamia in Block 13T. Eine Menge Progress...


http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/1851638/-/w5arr7z/-/inde…


Lobby and oil firm in row over sharing of revenues



By BARNABAS BII [e-mail]
Posted Monday, May 13 2013 at 21:34


Some Community Based Organizations (CBOs) and local leaders want a sizable percentage of the oil revenue channelled to projects that are beneficial to the community.


A dispute has erupted between the Turkana community and an oil company over exploration rights, sharing of revenue and jobs.

The community through Turkana Civil Society Platform wants Tullow Oil, which discovered oil in the region two years ago, to implement an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report and give them priority in employment.

The society claims oil exploration at Amosing site — some five kilometres from Ngamia 1 in Turkana South — will destroy grazing fields and displace scores of families.

“The society flouted protocol while prospecting for gasoline at the new site by not involving the community and providing a detailed EIA report,” said Mr Eliud Emeri, the chairman of Turkana Civil Society.

But Tullow has disputed the claims arguing that the local community and leaders were involved in the entire oil exploration.

“Environmental Impact Assessment was carried out and forwarded to relevant departments for approval before moving to the new exploration site,” said Tullow Oil corporate affairs officer Ann Kibuge.

She dismissed some of the conditions by the community like provision of security, noting that it was beyond control of the company.

“We engaged the community and leaders across the board before acquiring the licence, but it is difficult for the company to provide security services,” she said.

Turkana South DC Eliud Godo urged the community to cooperate with the company, arguing that they stood to benefit from the discovery of oil in the semi-arid region.

“The community and the oil exploration company have held several consultations on how to resolve the differences,” he said on phone.

Amosing is about five kilometres from Ngamia 1 at Nakukulas area, where the company discovered oil two years ago.

Some Community Based Organizations (CBOs) and local leaders want a sizable percentage of the oil revenue channelled to projects that are beneficial to the community.

Job opportunities

They also want the local community to be given preference in relevant job opportunities.

Tullow discovered oil at the Ngamia 1 exploration on Lokichar and Nakukulas basin on the border of Turkana South and Turkana East district.

The oil exploration company is to drill another well at Ngamia 2 to explore potential of more oil deposits in the area.

The Turkana County where the Ngamia discovery has been made is one of seven basins mapped in Tullow’s acreage and is similar in size to the 9,000 square Kilometre Lake Albert Rift basin in Uganda.

[gimo211]

... Was übrigens derzeit als positives Zeichen für Sabisa in den diversen Boards gewertet wird, ist die Tasache, dass nun die Sabisa-Ergebnisse für Ende Mai angekündigt sind und die Ngamia-Flowtests - die ja bestimmt sehr positiv ausfallen werden - erst im Juni veröffentlicht werden.

Würde man bei Sabisa keine guten News erwarten, dann würde man doch bestimmt beide News gemeinsam veröffentlichen. Zumal sie ja offensichtlich recht zeitnah verfügbar sind...

Daher erwarte auch ich tatsächlich zwei gute News nacheinander (wobei die Ngamia-Ergebnisse grandios sein könnten...)

[niki550525]

Momentan hat ein wenig verkehrte Welt. Im letzten Jahr hätte eine Bekanntgabe eines Bohrstartes eine Kaufwelle mit einem Kursanstieg von 10 - 20% ausgelöst. Heute nur mal eine Nullnummer.
Was hier momentan bei den Rohstoffwerten abgeht ist, denke ich auch von keinem guten Analysten sauber nachzuvollziehen. Bin ja mal gespannt, welches Haar in der Suppe gefunden wird, wenn die Testergebnisse veröffentlicht werden.Eine positive Kursbeeinflussung bei diesem Umfeld kann ich mir hier schwer vorstellen.
Niki

[motz1]

Neue Präsi ist online : http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-05_AOIP.pdf

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.633.581 von motz1 am 14.05.13 18:19:20

Jetzt bekommen wir also einen Eindruck davon, wie die von Tullow bereits angekündigten weiteren Leads&Prospects im Chew Bahir Basin aussehen.

Slide 18 zeigt, dass uns vielleicht bald eine neue Perlenkette gemeldet wird. Besonders hübsch ist die Aussage "Key is to grow prospect inventory to keep ahead of drilling rigs" auf slide 14 ...








...und der Titel "A Major Emerging Oil Company in East Africa" besticht auch nicht gerade durch Understatement...

[motz1]

Einladung nach Schweden (Google-übersetzt), im Anschluss gibt's Häppchen

-------------------

Published: 2013-05-14 08:00:00 CEST


Africa Oil Corp.
Investor News

Invitation to Africa Oil and ShaMaran Petroleum

Oil companies Africa Oil and ShaMaran Petroleum invites you to a presentation by the CEOs, Keith Hill and Pradeep Kabra, in Stockholm:

Date: Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Time: 18:30
Location: Norra Latin, Auditorium, Queen Street 71B in Stockholm

After the presentation serves simple snacks and refreshments. As places are limited, it is first come first served principle applies at registration, which is done via e-mail at:

katarina.vorontsov @ vostoknafta.com
Or by phone: [phone]

Notification must be received by Monday 27 May 2013.

Africa Oil, a subsidiary of The Lundin Group of Companies, has a very interesting portfolio of assets in East Africa. The Company, together with its partner Tullow, made ​​two significant oil discoveries in Kenya on structures Ngamia and Twiga South in Lokichar basin. Africa Oil has assets in Kenya and Ethiopia and interests in Somali Puntland. Its shares are traded on First North at NASDAQ OMX Stockholm Exchange - and is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada.

ShaMaran Petroleum, which is also a company in The Lundin Group of Companies, has Atrushfältet an extremely interesting development asset in the Iraqi part of Kurdistan, a region that is today considered one of the most interesting of the global oil industry after the massive oil discoveries made where. ShaMaran Petroleum is listed in Toronto, Canada, and trading on First North at NASDAQ OMX in Stockholm.

Sincerely,

Robert Eriksson
The Lundin Group of Companies

https://newsclient.omxgroup.com/cdsPublic/viewDisclosure.act…

[gimo211]

Off Topic;

Jedoch sehenswert....

Findling the Price - ein Film über das Tullow Exploration Team


http://youtu.be/nRxhNtpp3Xk

[gimo211]

... Noch ein Video; diesmal ein kurzer Report zum Etuko spud im Keny TV...

http://k24tv.co.ke/?p=3750

[motz1]

Thx gimo211 für die beiden Videos (m.E. gar nicht O/T) und die Infos die du einstellst...


Hier herrscht wohl die klassische Ruhe vor dem Sturm, der ist imho maximal 2-4 Wochen entfernt. Folgendes Programm wurde für die kommenden Wochen für uns geschnürt:
- Ngamia-Flows und Tests
- Ressourcenanhebung durch und bei Ngamia
- Sabisa-Results
- Etuko-News
- Präsentation in Stockholm am 28.05.
- AGM am 03.06. (Überraschungen?) …
- Spud im Ogaden Basin

Happy to wait ...

[motz1]

Das Information Summary wurde per 09.05.2013 überarbeitet:

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/AOI-Info-Summary.pdf

[motz1]

Interessanter Beitrag, gepostet von Entreprise84333/stockhouse:

................................


African oil production - west to east


20 May 2013

By Sean Davies

Africa Oil’s long-term plan is to cultivate a workforce from local talent


Traditionally oil production in Africa has been centred on the west coast, but recently that exploration has moved to the eastern extremes.

Although Africa is made up of 54 countries and an estimated 805 million people, to date oil and gas production has been focused on just five nations ' Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Angola. But that is about to change, with the eastern states of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia joining the party.

According to the 2012 BP Statistical Energy Survey, Africa had proven oil reserves of 132,438 billion barrels at the end of 2011, equivalent to 41.2 years of current production and 8.01 per cent of the world's reserves. The continent produced an average 8.8 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2011, just over 10 per cent of the global output.

The big five account for 85 per cent of Africa's oil production. Other oil producing countries are Gabon, Congo, Cameroon, Tunisia, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Cote d'Ivoire.

Africa Oil Corporation, a Canadian-based exploration and production company, are attempting to move this oil production scenario eastwards. The company holds rights to blocks in East Africa ' some of which were surveyed last decade and abandoned by oil majors.

"It is virgin exploration," Keith Hill, CEO of Africa Oil explains. "We are in three countries, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia; none of these have any proven reserves or production."

The region has an unsavoury reputation for unrest and crime but Hill feels there are no particular challenges on that front. "I think in Somalia there is probably geo-political reasons why it has not been developed. The major oil companies did go to Kenya and Ethiopia in the 80s and early 90s and they found relatively small oil fields that they didn't think warranted development.

"Since then there have been major discoveries made in Sudan, Uganda and Yemen that have similar geology. We picked these up believing that geology extended into peace countries."

The current seismic and well database provides sufficient information to identify a large number of prospects and leads. Some of the prospects and leads have the potential to target multiple stacked plays.

"There were a lot of existing seismic surveys from the previous operators that we were able to use," Hill says. "We then added our own seismic and were able to identify a number of dig prospects. We spent a lot of time understanding what the previous dig people had done so we didn't repeat their mistakes.

"Once we got all the acreage together and the geological story together, we were able to draw up and attract partners, primarily Tullow, who came into six of our blocks. We also brought in a UK company called Afren, who is primarily involved in Nigeria."

Location, location, location

In Kenya, Block 9 and 10A are located in the Anza Graben. This is a Mesozoic basin related to similar Mesozoic basins of southern Sudan (Muglad Basin) where the petroleum system is proven and productive. The Muglad Basin is an analogue and provides calibration for the analysis of the prospectivity of these licenses.

Block 10BB is located south-east of 10A. The block is positioned within the eastern branch of the East African Rift, analogous to recent discoveries made by Tullow Oil and Heritage Oil in Uganda within the western branch of the East African Rift.

Block 10BA is in the north-western part of Kenya within the Kenya Rift, which is part of the East African Rift System. The Block includes onshore areas to the east and west of Lake Turkana and offshore portions of the northern two-thirds of Lake Turkana. Within the Block are several sub-basins and structural fault blocks that are considered part of the Kenya Rift.

The Cretaceous age Anza Graben may extend west of Block 10A to underlie the Tertiary age rift system and could add deep exploration targets. Sub-basins include Lake Turkana North, Lake Turkana Central, Lodwar North and Kerio North.

In Ethiopia, the Ogaden Basin Area is within a proven hydrocarbon setting. However, to date no commercial production has been established. Oil, gas and condensate discoveries indicate that there is a complex petroleum system. The limited available data in this under-explored area indicates that there is a wide range of potential petroleum type and volumes in this basin.

The company are now in the exploratory drilling phase. There are three rigs working at present and the plan is to bring another three rigs in over the course of the year. These wells are being drilled by experienced drilling contractors; a Polish company called OGEC, an American company called Weatherford and an Egyptian company called EDC. "There was a fairly high exploration budget this year of $468m so we have a very active year and it will continue next year," Hill adds.

Activity to date has seen encouraging results. From the three wells completed they have made three discoveries; two of them very significant in Ngamia and Twiga. "We have identified 130 prospective wells and we have an area the size of the North Sea," Hill says. "So its looks fairly interesting in that we are three for three and we have so many prospects still to drill.

"We will spend the next couple of years really getting to understand what we have got, drilling more exploration wells and appraisal wells and shooting 3D seismic until we are confident enough to develop."

Investing in infrastructure

A challenge facing the region is its lack of upstream and downstream infrastructure. The volume of oil would need to be fairly large to justify the construction of a pipeline to transport the crude to a coastal terminal. And clearly they are not there yet. Once a pipeline is in place lower capacity fields come more attractive; the problem is getting enough critical mass to justify that big first infrastructure investment.

The exploratory wells being drilled are not particularly deep; the deepest is 4,000m. "Our wells are all on shore," Hill explains. "We are focused on oil not gas; a lot of the East Africa offshore stuff is primarily gas. We look to smaller, more portable rigs that can be moved as quickly as possible. In the future we will be looking to get smaller rigs, our target depths are generally in the 1,000-2,000m range. We don't need the really big rigs to drill those types of targets."

Electrical logs are run to measure exactly what is down the well and drilling mud is used to control any hydrocarbon flow. The oil is first measured in place and then raised to the surface under controlled conditions for further inspection. "It's not like these movies where you get oil coming up to the surface and spraying up into the sky," Hill adds. "That's what we now call a disaster in the oil industry. So we make sure that we keep these wells under control.

"We can suspend these wells as future producers. It makes sense, after spending an average of $20m, to keep these wells. Currently we are drilling at $40m per well, but that will come down as we drill more and the infrastructure gets established."

As long as they keep finding oil the exploration will continue. The current programme is planned out for the next two year with the aim of reaching a position where they can commence commercial development.

It is always tough to put a figure on the quantity required to justify development but the best guess is between 300 and 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. A position that Hill hopes can be reached by the end of 2013. "If we have the same type of drilling success that we have had so far, we should be in position by the end of the year," Hill says. "I feel confident about a development project."

For the early stages of exploration experienced oil workers are being drafted in, but the long-term plan is to cultivate local talent. "There is a highly talented, well-motivated work force here and we are working to build the capacity and get local content put into our workforce," Hill says.

One of the engineering challenges the company faced is that the crude is very waxy. It needs to be kept warm to prevent it solidifying. The facilities and pipeline are heated to ensure that the oil stays above 40°C. "It's like having a 700km long candle," Hill says. "It's actually fairly light, its 30-40 degrees ATI, so a light crude. It's very common for these crudes to have high wax content. It doesn't detract on the price; it just has to be handled in a special way."

Production of crude oil

Once production can begin the plan is to build a pipeline to Lamu, the port being built by Kenya. "We will probably do this in conjunction with the Ugandans, although those negotiations are still under way," Hill says. "Most of the crude oil will go for export. There is talk of building a refinery in a country that will satisfy local demand but we will have to see."

The size of these discoveries will not rival the major oil deposits under production in Nigeria and Angola, but a third party report says that there could be 27 billion barrels of oil which would be defined as prospective resources. "The size of the prize is very large but, of course, we are very early in our exploration," Hill concludes. "Having drilled only three wells we don't really have a handle on how much of that resource can be converted into reserves.

"But these are probably the largest unexplored basins outside of Russia and these just don't come along very often and with this much potential. It has lain fallow for the last 20- 25 years since the majors left, so it's time to produce."

http://eandt.theiet.org/magazine/2013/05/eastern-promise.cfm

[motz1]

Zitat von motz1: "Once we got all the acreage together and the geological story together, we were able to draw up and attract partners, primarily Tullow, who came into six of our blocks. We also brought in a UK company called Afren, who is primarily involved in Nigeria."

In welchen Blöcken ist Tullow unser Partner?
10BB 50.0%
13T 50.0%
10BA 50.0%
12A 20.0%
Ethiopia South Omo 50.0%

Das sind aber 5. Entweder ich liege daneben. Oder KH kann nicht zählen, er wurde falsch zitiert oder Tullow ist nun auch an Rift Valley Area beteiligt. Letzteres wäre sicherlich nicht zu unserem Nachteil...

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.684.671 von motz1 am 21.05.13 18:59:15

Variante eins ist richtig - ich lag falsch. Tullow ist natürlich auch an Block 10A beteiligt, damit sind es sechs Blöcke. Pardon me...

[niki550525]

Das find ich ja schon Super. Zuerst gehen die Weltbörsen stetig nach oben und die Rohstoffaktien werden verkauft auf Teufel komm raus.
Nun lassen die Weltbörsen die ersten Federn und was passiert ?
Richtig, die Rohstoffaktien werden weiter verkauft......
Irgendwie doch nicht normal.
Hier wurde gute Arbeit geleistet und super Erfolge erziehlt. Die Aussichten sind mehr als hervorragend. Trotzdem wird das Papier gemieden oder verkauft. Da wird das warten auf Kursbesserung doch zur Qual......
Niki

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.700.791 von niki550525 am 23.05.13 15:23:28

Genau das ist das Problem. Mit dem Notenbankgeld werden vor allem die Standardaktien aufgeblasen. Und das, was normalerweile in den Ölsektor fließt, wird von Goldman Sachs & Co. in die Fracking-Industrie umgeleitet. Die Fondsmanager blasen mit ihren Kundengeldern lieber neue Blasen auf - anscheinend wollen sie keine günstigen Aktien mit Potenzial haben. Es kommen aber auch irgendwann wieder andere Zeiten. Man braucht eben einen langen Atem und sollte nicht jeden Tag auf die Kurse schauen.
Wenn China nicht völlig abschmiert, verbraucht die Welt wahrscheinlich schon in ein paar Jahren mehr, als produziert werden kann. Dann wird das Gerangel um das letzte billige Öl erst richtig losgehen.

[gimo211]

Sehr lesenswerter Artikel im Economist bezüglich der Situation rund um die Planung der Oil Pipeline, die Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopien und Kenya gemeinsam auf den Weg zu bringen beabsichtigen. Alles schwierig in Africa...

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2157840…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.703.889 von schwochner am 23.05.13 21:42:01

Stimme Deinen Ausführungen voll zu. Interessant auch der Artikel von gimo211 , danke fürs reinstellen. Denke das das auch ein großes Problem für Investoren darstellt. Öl finden ist eine Sache. Dieses dann auch zu verwerten ist die zweite Sache. Was uns als Europäer nicht so bewust ist, ist die enorme Korruption die in diesen Ländern herrscht. der unterschriebene Vertrag von gestern kann morgen schon keinen Pfifferling Wert sein, denn das Spiel läuft in den obersten Ebenen. Nur die ganz grossen Player /Gesellschaften haben über Ihre Lobby die Macht über Politiker druck auf solche Machenschaften auszuüben.
Nun stellt sich die Frage ob man dies der Lundifamilie zutraut.
Die Vergangenheit zeigt, dass die Lundi Group bisher immer das richtige getan hat um erfolgreich zu sein,wie auch immer sie das angestellt haben
Ich denke und bin auch überzeugt, das sie auch dieses Schiff in den richtigen Hafen steuern werden.
Leider spielt die grosse Politik in diesem Falle auch eine grosse Rolle. Rohstoffe sind seit geraumer Zeit, zumindest ab ende letztem Jahre nicht im Blickpunkt der grossen Investoren. Herrscht zudem Käuferstreik, kann der Kurs leicht in eine Richtung getrieben und auch gehalten werden, wie es derzeit der Fall ist. Wer meine Beiträge schon mal gelesen hat weiß, dass ich viele Entscheidungen über die Charttechnik mache. Seit geraumer Zeit stellen sich aber charttechnische kaufsignale meist als Fehlsingale heraus, da diese Kaufsignale zum Abverkauf genützt werden.
Tja, da kann man nur der Weisheit harren, die sagt was fällt wird auch mal wieder steigen. Wie gesagt an den Fundamentaldaten und den Zukunftsausichten kanns nicht liegen.
Es ist halt eine Frage der Zeit und ob man die als kleiner Anleger auch hat.
Niki

[texas2]

Zitat von gimo211: Sehr lesenswerter Artikel im Economist bezüglich der Situation rund um die Planung der Oil Pipeline, die Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopien und Kenya gemeinsam auf den Weg zu bringen beabsichtigen. Alles schwierig in Africa...

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/2157840…

... oder wer den Poker zu weit ausreizt, hat es am Ende auch verbockt - in Bezug auf die ostafrikanischen Freunde.

Unser Zock: Wenn genug bbl als sichere Reserven nachgewiesen sind wird schon ein Staatlicher oder gewichtiger Major bei AOI zugreifen wollen.

[motz1]

So, langsam haben wir Ende Mai .

Sabisa und Ngamia stehen ohnehin an. Etuko ist am Montag 14 Tage alt, am Donnerstag 17 - bei ~50m/Tag könnten wir uns schon auf 750m Tiefe befinden...


Es gibt neben der Präsentation am Dienstag noch eine bei Remium, die findet am Donnerstag statt. Der Logik von 2012 folgend sollte K.H. für die Präsentationen wieder was mitgebracht haben, hoffe ich...

-------------------------

Africa Oil - Lunchpresentation 30/5
11:14 / 23 maj 2013

Remium arrangerar löpande luncher med spännande mindre och medelstora företag. Under lunchen presenterar bolagen sin verksamhet, den senaste finansiella utvecklingen och lämnar utrymme för frågor. I mån av plats erbjuder vi nu besökare på introduce.se att anmäla sig till dessa luncher kostnadsfritt.

Africa Oil
VD Keith C. Hill
Torsdag 30:e Maj
Klockan 12:00-13:00
Remium, Kungsgatan 12-14

O.S.A senast dagen innan till Ida Sundström på telefon 08 - 454 32 00 eller via mail till [e-mail]. Antalet platser är begränsat och Remium ber intresserade att anmäla sitt intresse så snart som möjligt.

http://www.introduce.se/artiklar/2013/5/africa-oil-lunchpres…


Google-Übersetzung:

Africa Oil - Packed Presentation 5/30
11:14 / May 23, 2013

Remium organizes regular lunches with exciting small and mid-sized businesses. During lunch featuring companies operations, the most recent financial developments and leave room for questions. Depending on space, we now offer visitors to introduce.se to sign up for these free lunches.

Africa Oil
MD Keith C. Hill
Thursday, May 30
At 12:00 to 13:00
Remium, Kungsgatan 12-14

RSVP by the day before to Ida Sundstrom on telephone [phone] or via email to [e-mail]. Seats are limited and Remium're interested to register their interest as soon as possible.

[gabbo62]

Sabisa-Ergebnisse sind für Ende Mai angekündigt.
Wir befinden uns in der letzten Mai-Woche.
Heute rechne ich wegen Feiertag in USA (Memorial Day) noch nicht damit.
Morgen vor der Präsentation würde passen.

[gimo211]

Das könnte die Position von HRN (und somit auch unsere...) in Somalia stärken...


http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Press_Releases_3…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.720.103 von gabbo62 am 27.05.13 07:34:36

Die Ergebnisse scheinen kaum jemanden zu interessieren
Scheinbar gibt es heute keine besonderen Informationen, da im Vorfeld der Kurs festbetoniert ist. Zu früheren Zeiten sind da schon mal Gerüchte durchgesickert und der Kurs hat sich Tage vor der Veröffentlichung schon erheblich nach oben bewegt. Heute nun scheinbar keine interessante Info oder kein Schwein hat da ein Interesse.
Irgendwie erinnert mich das an eine Aktie die ich auch mal hatte und die in Afrika Ihr Geschäft versuchen (Forsys) Ist nicht ganz vergleichbar, da FSY mit Uran Ihr Glück versucht haben und das ist ja bekanntlich politisch ein heisses Eisen.
Was hier aber vergleichbar ist, das man am Kursverlauf feststellen kann, dass am Anfang, wo es nur Gerüchte gab der Kurs bei über 10 CAN $ Stand. Je mehr die Gerüchte aber Wahrheit wurden um so mehr ist der Kurs abgekackt und ebenso die Umsätze.
nachdem es sich aber gezeigt hat, dass Uranliegenschaften in Afrika nicht verkaufbar sind hat es die Aktie zerissen.Aber auch hier stand im Hintergrund eine super Story.
Was ich damit sagen will ist das Afrika weit weg ist und das nicht alles Gold ist was funkelt.
Bei meiner Bank zb. kann ich normaler weise jede Aktie beleihen. Nur Solarworld und man staune....AOI. Komischerweise kann ich aber HRN beleihen, die keine Sicherheit außer ihre Liegenschaften haben.
Charttechnisch bewegen wir uns seit Tagen leicht über der MA50. Da sich der Kurs nicht nachhaltigt davon lösen kann wird der Up - move immer geringer. Der Umsatz läßt auch immer weiter nach. Nur am 23.05 hatten wir 1,5 Mio und das waren haupsächlich abverkäufe.Normalerweise sind das keine guten Zeichen im Vorfeld. Mag sein, dass es gute Resultate sind die man in Kürze bekannt gibt. Wenn jedoch die Erwartungen nicht übertroffen werden geht es erstmal abwärts.
Was mich auch noch stutzig macht ist, das alle die an die Aktie glauben, Ihren Pott voll haben. Es gibt aber auch kaum jemand der derzeit in Rohstoffaktien investiert, auch wenn sie noch so günstig liegen. Auch gute Meldungen wie zuletzt bei PG (Premiere Gold)verpuffen förmlich. Früher hatte das auf einen schlag einen Kursaufschlag von 20 -30% gegeben zdem die Aktie Kursmäßig am Boden ist. Tja da werd mal einer schlau. Vielleicht liegts ja am schlechten Wetter
Na dann lassen wir uns mal überraschen was die Tage uns noch so bringen..
Niki

[schwochner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.730.883 von niki550525 am 28.05.13 14:09:59

Das Problem ist, dass fast nur noch Institutionelle an der Börse sind, die mit dem Geld fremder Leute handeln. Die stehen permanent unter Performancedruck und zocken dort, wo die Musik spielt. Z.B. Solarcity Börsenwert 4 Mrd. Dollar bei 150 Mio. Dollar Umsatz. Die Kurse haben mit fundamentalen Entwicklungen - wie man ja bei AOI in den letzten Monaten sieht - nicht viel zu tun. Aber heute immerhin 3 Prozent. Dafür müssen Festgeld-Jünger drei Jahre warten. Africa Oil scheint ja heute Präsentation in Toronto gehabt zu haben, morgen glaube ich Stockholm? KH muss ziemlich im Stress sein.

[gimo211]

Aus dem Schwedischen per Google ins Englische... ... aber man kann es verstehen..

Wir müssen wohl noch zwei bis drei Wochen auf Sabisa und Ngamia warten - aber KH scheint optimistisch bezüglich Sabisa... und das wäre so cool...



Now I come home from the very positive meeting ShaMaran Petroleum and Africa Oil held today and here is a brief summary:

About 300 st persons were in place roughly and it was a very good atmosphere. Shamarans CEO Pradeep Kabra started and then ran Africa Oil's CEO Keith C Hill started.

ShaMaran:

- It will borrow money in the next few months (1-2 months) to meet the financing through to production, which is scheduled to start in five months in October. After that, it will be self-sufficient and not have to bring in more money. Thus needed no PP or issue which is very important to point out. He pointed specifically that they do not want to dilute the share capital for the existing shareholders.

- Results from Atrush 3 within 1 month (end of June).

- Six interconnected reservoirs = one big tank (a sea of ​​oil). They are pretty sure that there is one big pool of oil in Atrush.

- He stressed that Atrush is a "world class discovery"

- Production will start at 30,000 barrels per day and increased by 30 000 more per year to reach 120,000 barrels per day in 2017. These are very conservative numbers, and it may well be a strong acceleration of production when they got started and see how it works. Pradeep said they might be able to get up to 220 000 barrels per day already in 2015.

- Up to 30-40% in the rate of recovery is likely.

- FDP (field developement plan = production plan submitted previously v. ei May) is conservative and 120,000 barrels per day can be seen as a base. FDPn will arrive within the next few months.

Africa Oil:

- Sabisaresultat the next two weeks. It has almost reached target depth on the 3rd hole (estimated to take approximately 1 week), then you must test which usually takes about 1 week. Expect results just before the middle of June. Keith C Hill seemed very positive about Sabisa and said they are very positive about this well and just hope to prove the oil on paper now.

- Ngamiaflöden will within 20 days (should be sometime shortly after mid-June). They have two zones left to test and they have apparently found the zones they thought would contain Netpay that may be added to the Netpay in the 100 meters as first found in Ngamia-1.

- There will be a reserve update in August or by early September as Keith C Hill stressed will be a major trigger for the stock price. The reserves will be up significantly.

- Etuko which began drilled a couple of weeks ago is scheduled to be completed in mid-July.

- Keith C Hill pointed out that the average price of houses that have recon share is more than 11 canada dollars (about 75 dollars). Each basin should be worth $ 20, according to him. And 3-5 basins, he expects that they will at least be able to prove the oil in.

- Horn Petroleum owned large parts of Africa Oil hopes to introduce a partner the next few weeks unless I heard wrong.

- They often get calls from the big oil companies that want to buy into their blocks. As also mentioned in the previous meeting. They will not sell unless they get a price they think is reasonable. And within two years, no sales to be up to date when they want to drill and prove up at least two more years.

- Hill expects to get between 5-10 dollars per barrel for the oil they find.

I've probably forgotten a lot, but this was anyway a short summary of this very pleasant and positive meeting.

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.734.953 von gimo211 am 28.05.13 22:13:25

Und hier noch ein Presse-Release zum heutigen Meeting - ebenfalls aus dem Schwedischen ins Englische....



News Alert: Ngamia

AFRICA OIL: SABISA-PROFIT EXPECTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 WEEKS - CEO
2013-05-28 20:58

STOCKHOLM (AFX) Africa Oil believes that the results concerning the Ethiopian Sabisa-well should be accounted for approximately 2 weeks.

It said the oil exploration company's CEO Keith Hill during Tuesday night's shareholder meeting.
Sabisa-well in Ethiopia which began drilling in mid-January has been delayed and is now expected to then present results around the middle of June, large owner Lukas Lundin indicated for Direkt in early May.

As for the Kenyan Ngamia well where full flow results will be around three weeks is also expected to further comment on the deposit's net column. The operator Tullow Oil indicated in early May to nettokolumnens length could be increased from the earlier estimate of 100 meters.

As for Etuko-well in Kenya is expected to result in mid-July and in block 8 in the Ogaden area of ​​Ethiopia, is expected the initial drilling will commence in July, according to the CEO.

Paipai-well in Kenya forecast to still flow tested någong once during the second half of 2013.
What is concerned, Africa Oil's associates Horn Petroleum currently operates in Somalia, is expected to associate make any African acquisitions within the next 6-8 weeks.

A new update on Africa Oil's total resources expected in August or September, said Keith Hill, too.
He also said that the company's main strategy is to retain ownership of its licenses around 20-35 percent. He ruled, however, that the company would be totally for sale but referred particularly to a Kenyan capital gain tax that spoke against the total sales of the company.

Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

[motz1]

Vielen Dank @gimo211!

Dann halt Mitte Juni ...


@schwochner: KH ist "nur" in Stockholm auf Promo-Tour, hat am Donnerstag noch eine Präsentation über Mittag bei Remium.

[gimo211]

Der Kursverlauf in Kanada ist auch positiv - wäre schön, wenn AOI nun wieder etwas Momentum gewinnt...

[gimo211]

Das auch noch aus Schweden...

offenbar sprach KH heute von 8 statt bislang 6 Test-Zonen at Ngamia... I like it...

Yes, Hill talked tonight about 2 extra zones in Ngamia besides the 6 man declared earlier so surely you are on the right track. More Netpay to Ngamia-1 will in all likelihood come he said and reported on when everything is tested and ready in 20 days. A nice trigger where we have.

[gabbo62]

Auszug aus der News Release mit den Q1/13-Ergebnissen
(Tabellen über Link einsehen)

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-first-qua…

May 28, 2013 18:41 ET

Africa Oil First Quarter of 2013 Financial and Operating Results

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - May 28, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil", "the Company" or"AOC") is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2013.

•On the back of the successful exploration activities in Kenya during 2012, the Company, together with its partners, continues to ramp up its exploration program in Kenya and Ethiopia. Entering the year, two Tullow-Africa Oil joint venture rigs were operating in Kenya and one joint venture rig was operating in Ethiopia. A fourth Tullow-Africa Oil joint venture rig has been secured and is expected to commence testing and drilling operations in Kenya on Blocks 10BB and 13T during the third quarter of 2013. The Company, as operator, and its partner in Block 9 (Kenya) have secured a fifth rig, which will commence drilling operations in the third quarter of 2013. In addition, the Company and its partners in Block 7/8 (Ethiopia) have secured a sixth rig, which will commence drilling operations in June 2013. For a period, the Company will have 6 drilling rigs operating and expects to exit the year with 5 rigs operating in the region. The Company plans to drill 10 to 12 wells and perform up to 5 well tests across its exploration blocks during 2013.

•The Company and its partner on Block 13T, Tullow, conducted well testing operations at Twiga South-1, which resulted in a cumulative flow rate of 2,812 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from three zones, despite being constrained by surface equipment. With optimized production equipment, the cumulative flow rate is anticipated to have increased to a cumulative rate of approximately 5,200 bopd. High quality 37 degree API waxy sweet crude flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered. The well was suspended as a potential future production well.

•The Company and its partner on Block 10BB, Tullow, are currently conducting tests on a series of six zones at the Ngamia-1 discovery. Ngamia-1 was drilled in 2012 but testing operations were postponed until appropriate artificial lift equipment was sourced to properly assess the accumulation. The first of these tests was in the Lower Lokhone formation where up to 43 meters of potential pay had previously been identified by logging and MDT sampling. The well flowed 281 barrels of 30 degree API oil per day from this zone. The remaining 5 tests are being conducted in the Auwerwer formation which are the highest quality reservoirs penetrated in the Ngamia well and which produced very well in the Twiga South-1 well. Results of these remaining Ngamia-1 tests are expected to be announced in June 2013.

•In the first quarter of 2013, the Company and its operating partners on Block 10A completed drilling the Paipai-1 exploration well. The Paipai-1 well tested a large four-way closed structure with Cretaceous-age sandstone targets at multiple depths. Paipai-1 spudded in September 2012 and completed drilling in the first quarter of 2013 to a total depth of 4,255 meters. Light hydrocarbons were encountered while drilling a 55 meter thick gross sandstone interval. Attempts to sample the reservoir fluid were unsuccessful and the hydrocarbons encountered while drilling were not recovered to surface. The Company and its partners were unable to test the well at the time due to the unavailability, in country, of testing equipment capable of handling the higher reservoir pressures encountered at this depth. As a result, the well has been temporarily suspended pending further data evaluation.

•The rig that drilled the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A has mobilized to the Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB to drill the Etuko prospect in the flank play where oil was discovered in 1992 by Shell at the Loperot-1 well. The Etuko-1 well spud in early May 2013 and results from the well are expected in July 2013. Should Etuko-1 be successful, there are a number of drill ready follow-up prospects on the same trend.

•The Company and its partners on the South Omo Block (Ethiopia) spudded the Sabisa-1 well in January 2013 and the well was drilled to a preliminary total depth of 1,810 meters. Hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal have been recorded while drilling, but hole instability issues have required the drilling of a sidetrack to comprehensively log and sample these zones of interest. The sidetrack is underway and a result is expected in late May/early June.

•The Company and its joint operating partners on Blocks 7/8 (New Age operated) are planning to drill and test the El Kuran-3 appraisal well. A rig has been secured, the well site has been constructed and the well is expected to spud towards the end of June 2013. Should the well show encouragement, a multi-zone acid fracture stimulation well test is planned during 2013.

•The Company and its partner on Block 9 are currently planning to drill one exploration well in 2013. Block 9 is in the Cretaceous rift basin on trend with the South Sudan oil fields and the play concept was confirmed by the recent Paipai-1 well drilled in Block 10A. Two major prospects, Bahasi-1 and Sala-1, with large volume potential have been identified. The Company, as operator, and its partners in Block 9 have secured a rig to drill the Bahasi-1 exploration well. Site construction for Bahasi-1 commenced in May and the well is expected to spud in the third quarter of 2013.

•The Company continues to actively acquire, process and interpret 2D seismic over Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 12A, 13T and South Omo. In addition, the Company and its partner in Blocks 10BB and 13T will mobilize a 3D seismic crew to complete a 550 square kilometer 3D seismic survey over the Ngamia and Twiga structures later in 2013.

•In first quarter of 2013, the Company executed a PSA for the Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia. Located north of the South Omo Block, the Rift Basin Area covers 42,519 square kilometers. This block is on trend with highly prospective blocks in the Tertiary rift valley including the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, and Kenyan Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 13T, and 12A. The Company commenced acquiring a Full Tensor Gradiometry survey in May 2013 and will conduct an exhaustive environmental and social impact assessment over the block later in the year in preparation for a seismic program in 2014.

•Africa Oil ended the quarter in a strong financial position with cash of $237.1 million and working capital of $198.8 million.
Keith Hill, President and CEO, commented, "Africa Oil is very encouraged with the results of our first two exploration wells in the Lokichar basin. Our fully funded 2013 work program is focused on drilling and testing multiple wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya in an effort to reach commercial thresholds and on drilling multiple potential basin-opening wells across its vast East African exploration acreage."

Outlook

The Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The focus of these rigs in 2013 will be to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill potential basin-opener wells in the Turkana and the Chew Bahir basins in the tertiary rift play within Ethiopia. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

The Company and its operating partner in Block 9 in Kenya are currently planning to drill the Bahasi-1 exploratory well. This well will be drilled on a large anticlinal structure targeting tertiary and cretaceous sandstones where six billion barrels of oil was discovered along trend in Sudan in a similar geologic setting. A follow-up well is also being considered towards the end of 2013 in Block 9. The Company and its operating partners in Blocks 7/8 in Ethiopia are currently planning to drill a well to appraise reservoir characteristics of Jurassic carbonates on the El Kuran oil accumulation. The main focus of this well is to establish commercial rates with acidizing, fraccing and horizontal sidetracks being considered.

The Company, through its 44.6% ownership interest in Horn, and its partners entered the next exploration period in both the Dharoor Valley and Nugaal Valley PSAs which carry a commitment to drill one well in each block within an additional three year term. The current operational plan is to contract a seismic crew to acquire additional data in the Dharoor Valley block and to hold discussions with the Puntland Government regarding drill ready prospects in the Nugaal Valley block. The focus of the Dharoor Valley block seismic program will be to delineate new structural prospects for the upcoming drilling campaign.

Outlook

The Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The focus of these rigs in 2013 will be to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill potential basin-opener wells in the Turkana and the Chew Bahir basins in the tertiary rift play within Ethiopia. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

The Company and its operating partner in Block 9 in Kenya are currently planning to drill the Bahasi-1 exploratory well. This well will be drilled on a large anticlinal structure targeting tertiary and cretaceous sandstones where six billion barrels of oil was discovered along trend in Sudan in a similar geologic setting. A follow-up well is also being considered towards the end of 2013 in Block 9. The Company and its operating partners in Blocks 7/8 in Ethiopia are currently planning to drill a well to appraise reservoir characteristics of Jurassic carbonates on the El Kuran oil accumulation. The main focus of this well is to establish commercial rates with acidizing, fraccing and horizontal sidetracks being considered.

The Company, through its 44.6% ownership interest in Horn, and its partners entered the next exploration period in both the Dharoor Valley and Nugaal Valley PSAs which carry a commitment to drill one well in each block within an additional three year term. The current operational plan is to contract a seismic crew to acquire additional data in the Dharoor Valley block and to hold discussions with the Puntland Government regarding drill ready prospects in the Nugaal Valley block. The focus of the Dharoor Valley block seismic program will be to delineate new structural prospects for the upcoming drilling campaign.

Outlook

The Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The focus of these rigs in 2013 will be to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to reach commercial thresholds, and to drill potential basin-opener wells in the Turkana and the Chew Bahir basins in the tertiary rift play within Ethiopia. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

The Company and its operating partner in Block 9 in Kenya are currently planning to drill the Bahasi-1 exploratory well. This well will be drilled on a large anticlinal structure targeting tertiary and cretaceous sandstones where six billion barrels of oil was discovered along trend in Sudan in a similar geologic setting. A follow-up well is also being considered towards the end of 2013 in Block 9. The Company and its operating partners in Blocks 7/8 in Ethiopia are currently planning to drill a well to appraise reservoir characteristics of Jurassic carbonates on the El Kuran oil accumulation. The main focus of this well is to establish commercial rates with acidizing, fraccing and horizontal sidetracks being considered.

The Company, through its 44.6% ownership interest in Horn, and its partners entered the next exploration period in both the Dharoor Valley and Nugaal Valley PSAs which carry a commitment to drill one well in each block within an additional three year term. The current operational plan is to contract a seismic crew to acquire additional data in the Dharoor Valley block and to hold discussions with the Puntland Government regarding drill ready prospects in the Nugaal Valley block. The focus of the Dharoor Valley block seismic program will be to delineate new structural prospects for the upcoming drilling campaign.

[gabbo62]

Sorry, Outlook ist 3x drin.

[abionaut]

Ein bisschen was über die Lundin's, incl. Statement bzgl. AOI

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/billionaire-swedes-…

[motz1]

1000 Dank an StockBrain!!!

[Staberhuk]

Quelle: http://www.africaintelligence.com/AEM/alert-aem/2013/05/30/t…

30/05/2013
Africa Energy Intelligence N°699

GHANA
Tullow lands PoD accord for TEN
Ghana's president, John Mahama Dramana, made brief mention during a meeting of the French employers association MEDEF on May 29 that his government had endorsed Tullow Oil's Program of Development (PoD) for the offshore TEN (Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntome) oil and gas complex. (...) [246 words] [€5,2]

[gabbo62]

Der Newsflow dürfte gesichert sein.

Die nächsten Monate werden spannend.

[gimo211]

ACHTUNG RUMOURS


Laut Diskussion in Schweden werden bei Sabisa wohl bis zu 30m net Pay getestet. Das wäre absolut super, hätten wir dort eine Discovery in dieser Größe...


Aus dem Schwedischen via. Google-Translation:


"I met KH 4 times last week. The big hit, Pareto Date, Shareholders' meeting and at an event on Wednesday evening. He claims that the jury is still out in Sabisa ... however, claims to be" seal "is available, the source is well kitchen ... now just oil. Regarding the oil, he seems even where very secure. Approximately 30 meters net.

Personally, I believe that it is already clear. Already in the second well knew them, then collapsed the entire well. Now they have pierced clearly and doing logging, etc. This would open up a whole new "basin". Enormously.

Ngamia also felt very good. Etuko, cruelly exciting. great potential. However, there must seal. Ekales is given. Just how much.

[gimo211]

Hier die aktuelle Mai 2013 Präsentation von HRN.


http://www.hornpetroleum.com/i/pdf/Horn-OCM-May-2013.pdf

[gimo211]

Keith Hill Interview!!!

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.777.523 von gimo211 am 03.06.13 21:02:07

Nice! KH hat wieder in die "Abteilung Frontalangriff" gewechselt, Erwartungsmanagement wird ausgeblendet...

Er erwartet kurzfristig 5 Kurstreiber:
- Ngamia Testergebnisse (> etwa Mitte Juni)
- Sabisa Testergebnisse (> etwa Mitte Juni)
- Etuko Ergebnisse (> etwa Mitte Juli)
- Ekales Ergebnisse (> im August; geringes Risiko da zwischen Twiga und Ngamia gelegen)
- Mid Year Resources Update, insbesondere contingent resources (> persönliche Schätzung: später August/September)


Es gab noch die Übersicht zu den Beschlüssen des AGM:

Jun 3, 2013 - 18:05 ET Africa Oil AGM Results

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - June 3, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or "the Corporation") reports that at its Annual and Special Meeting (the "Meeting") held today in Vancouver, Canada, shareholders voted in favour of all resolutions considered before the Meeting, namely:
•Receipt of the consolidated audited financial statements of the Corporation for the year ended December 31, 2012, together with the report of the auditors;

•Fixed the number of directors at five (5);

•Elected Messrs. Keith Hill, John Craig, Bryan Benitz, Gary Guidry, and Cam Bailey as directors to hold office until the next Meeting of the Corporation;

•Appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP as auditor of the Corporation to hold office until the next Meeting, at a remuneration to be fixed by the directors of the Corporation;

•Approved an ordinary resolution ratifying and confirming the Corporation's existing 10% Rolling Stock Option Plan;

•Approved a special resolution authorizing an alteration of the Company's Articles to include advance notice provisions.

[...]

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…


Abwarten .

[gimo211]

Hi motz1,

Ich finde - neben den ganzen eigentlich bekannten Themen - äußerst interessant, was er zur Devlopment-Phase und den Gesprächen mit den (Super-) Majors sagt...

Meine Take aways:

* sie sprechen bereits mit einigen potentiellen Partnern und sind mit diesen überein, erst ab etwa 2015 ein farmout vorzusehen

(offenbar sind diese Gesprächspartner bereit, jetzt zu noch warten und das Preis-Premium in 2015 zu zahlen, wenn man dann kein großes Risiko für die Development- und Produktions-Phase mehr haben wird.)

* AOC und Tullow werden eine gemeinsame Lösung anstreben

(Sehr gut, das macht es für einen der großen potentiellen Partner wesentlich attraktiver - ansonsten könnten den Super Majors das Stück vom Kuchen zu klein und irrelevant sein, solle TLW und AOI jeder seinen eigenen Partner suchen...)

* die wesentliche Frage wird dann für AOC sein, welchen Share and den betreffenden Blocks sie behalten können, wenn sie von einem super major vollkommen Free Carrier bis zur Produktion gebracht werden. KH sieht die mögliche Range von 15% bis 30%.

(Das hängt mit Sicherheit von der Größe der Discoveries und damit vom Wert der Felder ab. Insofern ist ein Resourcen-Upgrade in Q3 für AOC so wichtig. Je größer die Assets in den Farmout-Blöcken ist, um so größer wird der Share sein, den AOC behalten kann... Ein Beispiel wäre South Lokichar Basin. Wenn wir weiter sehr erfolgreich dort sind; wenn Twiga-South und Ngamia ergänzt werden, um weitere Discoveries entlang der Bounding Fault - String of Pearls - und wenn zusätzlich Etuko und die follow up Wells die östliche Erweiterung des Basins bestätigen, dann könnte man ein farmout von Block 10BB und 13T planen und TLW und AOI behalten jeweils 30% und der neue Partner bekäme 40%. Sagen wir, es könnte allein in diesem Basin eine Resource um die 2 Milliarden bbls nachgewiesen werden und man bewertet den bbls im Wert zwischen 5 und 10 Dollar - dann reden wir über einen Wert von 10 bis 20 Milliarden Dollar - da könnte ein Super Major noch immer ein sehr gutes Geschäft machen, wenn er für 40% Share eine Entwicklungswert von sagen wir 1 Milliarde Dollar investiert..

Please take it with a pinch of salt... Alles nur zur Illustration des möglichen Geschäftsmodells für AOC - wie es auch immer konkret werden könnte, die Chance besteht jedoch, dass AOC bis in die Produktion kommen kann und somit noch ein wahnsinnig großes Steigerungspotential hat... Wir brauchen einfach nur weitere Erfolge... (Ngamia, Etuko, Sabisa,...) )

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.781.093 von gimo211 am 04.06.13 12:24:14

Das Thema ist auch sehr interessant . Vor allem decken sich die Aussagen von KH mit der bisherigen Berichterstattung über Tullow, die eben solche Gespräche bereits seit geraumer Zeit zu führen vorgeben. Tullow spricht von rund 30-35% die sie behalten wollen (wie in Uganda). Sie haben intern auch den nötigen Cash-Flow um sich das leisten zu können, selbst wenn sie kein vollständiges Free Carry erreichen. Dass die beiden Partner scheinbar gemeinsam und koordiniert vorgehen sollte sich für uns aus(be)zahlen...

Mir persönlich wäre eine Lösung mit zwei zusätzlichen Majors momentan lieber, Chinesen + xy. Ich denke da wäre politisch längerfristig eine gewisse Absicherung mit dabei, zusätzlich könnten die Development Costs eine Herausforderung sein (ok, nicht für die Chinesen). Und eine Milliarde USD könnte ich mir vorstellen wird für die beiden Blöcke nicht reichen. Grund u.a.: too much oil there .

Wobei ich die grundsätzliche Strategie schon recht gut erkennbar finde. Blöcke 10BB und 13T voranbringen (incl. 2014), dafür spricht auch die "Area of interest". Dann Farmout und eine Mischung aus kassieren/Free Carry bei den beiden Blöcken hinbekommen. Danach dann den Explorationsfokus verlagern auf andere Gebiete.
Oder zwischendurch das passende T/O-Angebot annehmen .

[motz1]

Von Houndtrader/stockhouse:

......................

Workers protest oil refinery closure
Africa
Wednesday 5 June 2013 - 7:30 PM



Hundreds of workers at east Africa's only oil refinery protested at the threatened closure of the facility on Kenya's Indian Ocean coastline. Picture: AFP


Mombasa - Hundreds of workers at east Africa's only oil refinery protested at the threatened closure of the facility on Kenya's Indian Ocean coastline, and its possible conversion into a storage facility.

Fuel distributors have long complained about the poor quality products from the 50-year-old refinery in the port city of Mombasa and want it closed so they can buy cheaper and better imports from refineries of their choice.

Distributors said the plant was operating below its 35,000 barrels per day capacity and some have already threatened to boycott it.

However, under Kenyan law, they would be obliged to buy fuel from the refinery run by India's Essar Energy, which co-owns the refinery with the Kenyan government.

Essar has said it wants to raise $1.2 billion for a substantial upgrade.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has said the refinery could be converted for a different use, including a storage facility, if the proposed upgrade turns out to be too costly.

The report was due to be completed by end of May, but its findings have yet to be made public.

About 200 workers of an oil workers' union took part in the protest, refusing to report for the morning shift. They said their action would draw attention to the fact that their jobs could be lost should the plant be shut.

"We have written to the government demanding a clear explanation on what is happening, what will happen to our workers," said Raphael Olala, the coast branch secretary of the Kenya Petroleum Oil Workers Union.

"We are very much against that [closure of plant]. The worst thing government can do to this economy is to allow the shutting down of the refinery," he added.

It was not immediately clear if the protest would affect output at the plant.

Olala said a few workers in the plant's key departments remained on duty to ensure key parts of the facility run smoothly, adding their intention was not to cripple the plant.

Waving placards, the workers demanded the refinery's management and the ministry of energy inform them within 21 days of the decision on the future of the plant, warning that failure to do so would result in the issue of a strike notice.

"The refinery is our source of livelihood", one placard said. "Where will you refine Turkana oil?" said another, in reference to an oil discovery in northern Kenya by Tullow Oil, whose commercial viability has not yet been verified.

-Reuters

http://www.enca.com/africa/workers-protest-oil-refinery-clos…

[abionaut]

Interessanter Artikel gepostet von Enterprise84333 auf Stockhouse 06.06.2013:

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2013/06/africa-oil-vancouv…

[gabbo62]

Gefunden bei iHUB - thanks Tamtam9042.
Etuko video

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=vkhvw4CxMxg&desktop_uri=%2Fwa…

[niki550525]

Ich trau mich mal wieder :-)
So nun meine Analyse der Charttechnik.
wir hatten vor 2 Tagen einen Rücksetzer der bis 7,00 CAN$ ging und dann am gleichen Tag im Plus zu schließen. Dies ist ein starkes Zeichen.
SAR steht bei 7,77 CAN$. Diese gilt es zu knacken.
Slow STO hat heute schon wieder nach oben gedreht und der RSI ist mit 68,84% gut im Plus. Nachdem der SAR geknackt wird, ist der nächste Widerstand bei 7,98 CAN$ (MA200). Von da an kann sich der Kurs aufmachen um das offene GAP zu schließen.
Ich bin derzeit wieder sehr zuversichtlich und habe daher mal 250 Stück dazugekauft und somit bei Tradegade den Kurs gestellt :-)
Dann hoffen wir mal das demnächst gute Meldungen veröffentlicht werden, die dann auch vom Markt so interpretiert werden.
Niki

[gimo211]

Danke Niki... Immer schön, Deine technische Sicht zu lesen...


Ganz schön was los heute in Canada....

Inzwischen könnte es drei gute News geben - neben Sabisa und Ngamia, könnte Etuko bereits im Auwerwer Sandstone sein. Der ist bei Etuko eher ein secondary target (primary sollte lower Lokhone sds sein) aber wer weiß, ob da nich schon was gutes zu finden ist...

Jedenfalls gefällt mir das derzeitige Momentum der Aktie...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.830.251 von gimo211 am 11.06.13 21:34:35

Hallo gimo211, danke für das feet back.....
Gestrige Anstieg war wie erwartet und mit einem Schlußkurs von 7,78 CAN$ wurde der SAR getroffen. Auch über den Umsatz von 384 k kann mann nicht meckern.
Hoffen wir nun, dass die 7,98 CAN$ in kürze nachhaltig übersprungen werden, dann ist das nächste Ziel 10,40 CAN$ und das wäre dann schon ein realistischer Kurs zu den bereits vorliegenden Daten. Neue positive Erkenntnisse würden dann bei gutem Marktumfeld nochmal einen Schub nach oben erzeugen.Mit meiner 5 Stelligen Position kann ich immer noch gut schlafen
Ich habe großes Vertrauen in die Lundi Gruppe. Auch bei HRN habe ich mich gut positioniert, da ich auch hier damit rechne, das das was Großes wird. Auch hier muß man ganz einfach Geduld und Zeit mitbringen.
Niki

[motz1]

Von User freddahl/stockhouse: Timeline von Nomura...

Ngamia: Innerhalb 2 Wochen (Tests 1-4 erledigt, Zone 5 läuft)
Sabisa: 7-10 Tage
Etuko: 45 Tage
Resources-Update: August/September

----------------

AFRICA OIL: NOMURA BUY REC, AFTER ROADSHOW
08:00
STOCKHOLM (AFX) Investment bank Nomura has recently implemented a so-called road show with investors together with Africa Oil's director of business development, James Phillips.

The bank claims to have gained greater clarity in terms of the timing of important corporate events in the coming months, and reiterates its buy recommendation and price target of 88 dollars for Africa Oil.

From an analysis comment dated June 12.

Results of test drilling at Ngamia-well in Kenya is expected according to the Bank within two weeks. Tests were carried out in zones 1 to 4, but is still in zone 5, writes Nomura.

Results from the Ethiopian Sabisa-well, where Tullow is the operator, is expected to arrive within seven to ten days.

Nomura further estimates that the test results from Etuko-well, also in Kenya, should be available for approximately 45 days.

In August or September expected an update to the company's total assets in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Furthermore, the investment bank believes that Horn Petroleum will acquire additional exploration areas in Africa, in addition to the current exposure of Somalia.



Michael Bernander [phone]

Direkt

[abionaut]

Hallo motz1 und auch an alle anderen Forumsmitglieder, wie ordnet Ihr das von der Investment bank Nomura angegebene Kursziel von 88$ (für welchen Zeitpunkt auch immer) ein.

Bei Stockhouse habe ich am 07.06.2013 ein interessantes Posting von Storck gelesen,

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

wonach nach Abzügen der Abgaben an die Regierung und der Partner nur ca. 7,6% für AOI übrig blieben.

Wenn das stimmt, reicht das dann für besagte 88$? Ich weiß, dass hier auch an anderer stelle schon Aussagen hinsichtlich 100$ und mehr gefallen sind, doch ist das realistisch angesichts der unbestreitbaren Risiken in Afrika?

Für verschiedene Meinungen wäre ich sehr dankbar

[abionaut]

Freddahl im Stockhouseforum meint es seien nicht Dollar sondern Kronen.

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.833.341 von abionaut am 12.06.13 11:40:35

Hallo abionaut,

ja, es handelt sich um Schwedische Kronen; 88SEK ~ 13,70CAD. Dieses Update ist ziemlich sicher in schwedischer Sprache erschienen und von freddahl durch den Google-translator gejagt worden. Google macht allerdings aus SEK dann Dollar, was eben nicht stimmt...

Was Storck gepostet hat ist ein Beispiel zur Berechnung der Einnahmen aus Ölverkäufen allein auf das Lokichar-Basin bzw. Blöcke 13T und 10BB bezogen. Für den Share-Price hat das natürlich seine Bedeutung, allerdings ist es imho nur ein Anhaltspunkt unter mehreren.

Derzeit sieht es so aus, als ob AOI und Tullow gemeinsam ein Farmout in den beiden o.g. Blöcken planen um einen (Super-)Major ins Boot zu holen der die Entwicklungskosten übernimmt.
Neben diesen beiden Blöcken ist aber noch immer massig Explorations-Acreage vorhanden.

Wie weit es mit AOI nach Norden gehen wird kann ich dir nicht sagen. Die 13,70CAD halte ich für realistisch wenn die drei/vier Hauptnews der kommenden Wochen gut ausfallen und der Markt sie entsprechend annimmt.

88CAD schließe ich, wenn das alles passt, langfristig nicht ganz aus .

Natürlich alles imho.

[abionaut]

Vielen Dank für die prompte Info motz1!

[niki550525]

Gestern mal wieder ein Rücksetzer auf 7,48 CAN$.Denke das wir die nächsten Tage seitwäts laufen zwischen einem Range von 7,01 bis 7,97 CAN$.Die Nachrichten stehen nicht mehr lange aus.
Charttechnisch ist es wichtig, dass wir die 7,97 CAN$ nachhaltig überwinden. Damit wären wir wieder in einem Aufwärtstrend und wie ich geschrieben habe ist dann das nächste Ziel, die Schließung des GAP`s über 10 CAN$.
Leider läßt sich die Charttechnik nicht genau berechnen, da die Märkte verückt spielen. Dadurch das so viel Geld aus den Rohstoffmärkten geflossen ist und derzeit noch immer kein Run auf die Rohstoffaktien, weil ja alle so billig sind,kommt, muß man einfach warten bis die Irre Zeit vorbei geht.
Eines war ich über 10 Jahre Börsenerfahrung gelernt habe ist, es wird auch mal anders werden und darauf warte ich eben. Mit einem Trend von mehr als 2 Jahren, der nur nach unten geht, erhöht sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass es jede Zeit kippen kann und viel Geld wieder in Rohstoffaktien fließen werden. Allein der zündende Funke fehlt. Druck oder Überdruck ist mehr als genug vorhanden.
Wenn dann die Kurse anspringen gibt es kein halten mehr. Die Frage ist nicht wie, sondern wann.
Dann noch einen schönen Abend...
Niki

[nicolani]

wenn heute in CA volumen reinkommt, geht der kessel hoch!!

[abionaut]

Interessante Analyse und strategische Überlegungen von RionsRun auf Stockhouse bezüglich der möglicher Weise in Kenia anstehenden Kapitalertragssteuer:

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

I would not dismiss a total sale of AOI perhaps not until the capital gains tax becomes law. Lundin would have sold. Lundin's Plan A was to sell AOI, his main strategy then changed to retain partial ownership because of the pending tax laws. Kenya would rather have the supermajors so we could be looking at psychological warfare or wordplay in order to coax Kenya to back off at least somewhat and thus let the supermajors take a bigger bite with AOI's total sale? In other words, Kenya if you go ahead with the tax we have to stay and neither of us gets what we really want. I think things are still up in the air and if you look at the second quote the foreigners which means supermajors are probably 'coaxing' Kenya along with us. It will be interesting to see if the supermajors have enough pull.

'Moreover, he said that the company's main strategy is to retain ownership of its licenses around 20-35 percent. He ruled, however, that the company would be totally for sale but referred particularly to a Kenyan capital gain tax that spoke against the total sales of the company.'

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AAOIFF&dis…

' Nairobi's main share index edged lower and has now

fallen 3 percent in the last five sessions, and traders said the

proposed capital gains tax could scare away more investors,

particularly foreigners.'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/kenya-markets-idUS…

Experts propose the return of capital gains tax


By George Omondi

Posted Monday, June 10 2013 at 20:03

IN SUMMARY

PKF analysts said that the tax revenue generated from about Sh100bn worth of property that change hands in the country each year could reduce budget deficit.

The capital gains tax, a levy on profits from transfer or sale of securities, real estate or other capital properties, has been on government’s cards in the last decade.

Experts are rooting for leasing of public assets, the return of capital gains tax and compensation for delays in tax refunds in a raft of proposals to help reduce budget deficit.

Analysts at accounting and auditing firm PKF said that the tax revenue generated from about Sh100 billion worth of property that change hands in the country each year could significantly reduce deficit as it rolls out devolution structures.

“The capital gain taxes will introduce equality in taxation but should be well thought out to avoid stifling real estate and home ownership,” said Michael Mburugu, tax director at PKF.

If the Treasury adopts these proposals, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) would also be forced to pay interest at the rate of two per cent on delayed refund such as value added tax (VAT) claim left outstanding for more than 60 days.

The capital gains tax, a levy on profits from transfer or sale of securities, real estate or other capital properties, has been on government’s cards in the last decade.

The tax gained prominence seven years ago when then Finance minister Amos Kimunya introduced it in the 2006/2007 Budget but ended up inviting the wrath of MPs as the measures also proposed to tax their salaries.

The Ministry of Energy revived the campaign for capital gain tax early last year as “briefcase firms” made billions of shillings by transferring prospecting rights to multinationals shortly after Irish company Tullow discovered oil in parts of Turkana.

(Read: KRA’s tax shocker for oil marketing firm acquisitions)

The new push ahead of Thursday’s Budget Statement coincides with a campaign among East African countries to harmonise their tax regimes. Kenya is the only country in the region that does not levy capital gain taxes.

“A back-of-envelope calculation shows that the Kenyan economy expands by $ 4.5 to 6 billion not counting inflation. Of that, perhaps $1.5 billion (over 100 billion) comprises capital growth which may or may not be inflationary, “said Joseph Gichuki, the PKF East Africa’s regional head of audit.

He added, “Most of it goes untaxed even though it is often in the form of realised gains.”

The search for alternative sources of tax revenue has deepened since the government unveiled a Sh1.6 trillion budgetary estimates with experts warning that KRA might not raise Sh1 trillion under the current tax regime.

As another way of plugging the huge deficit without borrowing in the domestic market or resorting to punitive measures in the VAT Tax Bill, PKF consultants are also proposing use of Public Private Partnership (PPP) model to finance infrastructure projects under Vision 2030.

“The use of private resources to construct infrastructure projects such as roads, railways and bridges through PPP models such as Build, Operate and Transfer reduce borrowing through Treasury bonds/bills which have huge impact on interest rates and inflation,” said David Kabeberi, tax partner at PKF.

Kenya already has a PPP law in place to facilitate such kind of engagements.

The tax consultants, however, said the government also needs to craft an incentive structure such as 150 per cent capital investment allowance in order to lure private investors.

[e-mail]

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…


Weitere Überlegungen in diesem Kontext hinsichtlich einer möglichen Rolle von Horn bei den Lundins:

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

It's good to see you. This could be great for Horn. I always thought it was Horn that would be sold. I am not a Lundin expert, but from what I have seen, he likes his stable of companies to have marked enough differences so that they don't compete with each other. Yet he is going to duplicate AOI using Horn. I am not in Horn, but I would watch this tax. He might sell AOI (after we prove up more reserves) and then run with Horn. How Lundin leans depends on the tax law. imo
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=AO…

[motz1]

Die AGM-Präsentation ist online: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-06_AOI-AGMP.pdf

[motz1]

Seit gestern läuft die 4. Eastern Africa Oil, Gas & Energy Conference in Nairobi: http://www.petro21.com/events/?id=808#modalPp[iframes]/0/


Auf dem Programm stehen für heute u.a. Vorträge von James Phillips (VP und Business Development AOI) und Paul Burden (Team Leader Kenya&Ethiopia): http://www.petro21.com/events/?fa=layout-program&parentID=80…


Mal sehen ob da was an Infos rauskommt, letztes Jahr waren solche Events fast sicher mit aktuellen Infos verbunden...

[motz1]

Es gibt mal wieder einen Beitrag von Dissidentnation zu Somalia - wer sich hier im vergangenen Jahr bereits rumgetrieben hat kann sich an die Diskussion zur Qualität der Quelle erinnern. M.E. nicht uneingeschränkt als bare Münze zu nehmen, aber als Ausgangspunkt eingeschränkt tauglich .

----------------------

Oil – Somalia’s Deadly Bargaining Chip
06/14/2013

A political map of Somalia appears almost like a chess board, with each province (or square) covered by a different player. The squares may still be the same, but the players have evolved. A decade ago, each of Somalia’s competing factions was backed by a regional or international partner. Somaliland and Puntland were in Ethiopia’s pocket, the Jubba Valley Alliance was supported by the Arab League, and the CIA went in and out of each of these factional zones to keep Islamic elements suppressed.

The Somali factions have hardly changed, but their sponsors as well as the theme of the conflict, has been transformed. Each Somali faction now has a multinational corporate sponsor, primarily in relation to energy commodities. In Somaliland, you have Genel Energy of Turkey and Jacka Resources of Australia. In Puntland, you have Red Emperor Resources and Range Resources of Australia, as well as Horn Petroleum, which is a spinoff of Canada’s Africa Oil Corp. In Galmudug, Liberty Petroleum is the main exploration firm.

Further south, there is a high stakes game in Jubbaland, where the JVA once held sway. China is covertly sponsoring Kenya to install a puppet regime in Kismayo which can legitimize the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company’s stakes off the coast of Somalia’s Lower Jubba province without notifying the Western-backed regime in Mogadishu. The UK’s Guardian newspaper reported as early as December 2010 that China was providing intelligence and arms to Kenya’s military, which is just a year after China’s state-owned CNOOC leased the first oil blocks in Kenya, many of which were located well within ethnic Somali territory, and even into Somalia itself.

Beyond Jubbaland, oil interests overlap across the Somali political landscape. In Galmudug, a Puntland-friendly warlord and former Muhammad Aidid subordinate Abdi Awale was ushered in as president. During his election, it was believed that his presidency would usher in closer ties and perhaps even a merger with Puntland to avoid disputes over Liberty Petroleum’s claimed real estate. An even more intense showdown has plagued Puntland’s relations with Somaliland in the disputed regions of Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer (also known as Ayn or Cayn). The Sool province in particular may hold as much as half a billion barrels of oil, and was tested positive for oil traces in the 1980s by Conoco before its merger with Phillips Petroleum. The disputed regions have been the site of intense skirmishes between Puntland and Somaliland since 2003, and have routinely switched hands between the two entities.

The Somali factions aren’t the only players who claim disputes. The oil companies’ claims are also in dispute. The smaller late-comer exploration companies are sitting on oil blocks that were claimed by larger multinationals who were recognized by the previous Siad Barre regime. The Somali Federal Government only acknowledges the claims of the earlier multinationals, but the regional administrations like Puntland and Somaliland only respect the late-comer deals in order to rebut the SFG’s claim to authority. In all of this conflict, there is a glimmer of hope for negotiations. Shell currently has the greatest claim in Somalia, particularly off the coast of Puntland’s Nugaal and Bari provinces. One of the greatest share-owners of Shell is the Government of Qatar, which is also a major supporter of the SFG. Warmer relations between Puntland and the SFG in recent months are due largely to the acknowledgement that Puntland and the SFG have mutual interests and that they need each other to profit from the energy affairs of the nation.

Oil may be a dangerous bargaining chip, but every player in Somalia knows that it is the one trump card that will allow them to play on the board.

{DN Staff Writers}

DissidentNation.com - See more at: http://dissidentnation.com/oil-somalias-deadly-bargaining-ch…

[motz1]

Moin moin. Ein paar Fundstücke der vergangenen Tage zum Schmökern...

--------------

Warburg Pincus, ein PE-Unternehmen möchte ein East-Africa-Explorer aufziehen:

......

Warburg Pincus to Invest $600 Million in East African Oil Search
By Eduard Gismatullin - Jun 17, 2013 10:44 AM GMT+0200

Warburg Pincus LLC, a private-equity firm that helped find Ghana’s largest oilfield, will invest $600 million in a new exploration venture in Central and East Africa.

Warburg Pincus will be the largest shareholder in Delonex Energy Ltd., the companies said today in statement. The New York-based investor previously helped fund Kosmos Energy (KOS) Ltd., part of a venture that discovered the Jubilee field off Ghana.

“There is significant, underexplored resource potential in Central and East Africa,” said Delonex Chief Executive Officer Rahul Dhir, who headed Cairn India Ltd. until August. “Warburg Pincus is one of the leading investors globally in the energy sector and has an impressive track record.”
[...]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/warburg-pincus-to-i…

..........

Why we need to convince Ugandans to route their oil through Lokichar


An oil rig in Turkana County. Kenya is set to confirm the extent of commercial volumes of oil and gas available in the course of the year, according to investor reports.

By George Wachira
Posted Tuesday, June 18 2013 at 17:37

In Summary
•This will help increase the economic viability of Kenya’s oil venture in Turkana County
[...]
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion-and-Analysis/We-s…


............

Obama besucht u.a. Südafrika und Tanzania

.....

White House: Obama's $100M Africa trip 'great bang for our buck'
By Justin Sink - 06/14/13 02:51 PM ET

President Obama’s $100 million trip to African offers “great bang for our buck,” the White House said Friday.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/305647-whit…

[Staberhuk]

Quelle: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)vom 10.06.2013

Das ist eine Schätzung der weltweiten Frackingvorkommen, die überwiegend Gas aber auch Öl zutage bringen können.


Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/images/fig…

Hoffentlich funkt der Link.

[abionaut]

Der Artikel unterstreicht nochmal Zentral-Ost-Afrika als zukünftigen Öl-Hotspot:

Danke an Sweden1 on iii:

"UK oil firm opens Nairobi office to tap regional deals"

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/UK-oil-firm-opens-Nairobi…

[niki550525]

Nach der Ankündigung von Bernake die Anleihenkäufe zu bis 2014 reduzieren, ohne genaue Daten zu bringen, verunsichert die Märkte.
Rohstoffeaktien werden momentan auf "Teufel komm raus" verkauft. Dies betrifft hauptsächlich Silber und Goldminen. Denke das ist erst der Anfang und wird sich eine Zeitlang noch so hinziehen.
Natürlich kann sich da eine aoi ohne positive Nachrichten nicht entziehen.Habe daraufhin auch alle Rohstoffaktien aus meinem Depot verkauft.
So nun zur Charttechnik ,die mit Vorsicht zu genießen ist , wie ich schon mal beschrieben habe.
Die Umsätze sind eher bescheiden und kommen seit 24.05 nicht aus dem Quark.Heute bis jetzt auch nur 64K.
Denke mal das aufgrund der schlechten Allgemeinstimmung die Wahrscheinlichkeit gegeben ist, dass das GAP bei 6,80 bis7,05 CAN$ geschlossen wird.
Gründe hierzu sind: Slow STO ist im roten Bereich. MACD knickt gerade nach unten weg und RSI ist auf dem Weg nach unten bei derzeit 53%.
Wichtig ist, dass die MA50 bei derzeit 6,77 CAN$ hält. Ansonsten liegt die weitere Unterstützung bei 6,50 CAN$ die schon mehrfach eine Unterstützung (8x seit anfang März) gebildet hat.
Sollten wir den Kurs ohne schlechte Nachrichten erreichen, werde ich auch wieder Massiv zukaufen.
Wenn sich was auf der charttechnischen Seite verändert, melde ich mich wieder
Niki

[niki550525]

Na, das hat dann mal anständig gerummst.
Tagesvolumen bei 215,7K und wie schon gesagt derzeit nicht berauschend.
SAR wurde getroffen und ist nun Negativ.
Slow STO steiler Rückgang und liegt nun bei 60,35% im roten Bereich.
RSI ebenfalls steiler Rückgang und ist nun bei 49% im roten Bereich.
Kurstiefpunkt war bei 7,11 und Schlußkurs bei 7,24 CAN$. Also haben da schon wieder einige zugekauft und den Kurs angehoben. Ist zwar Positiv, aber die allgemein schlechte Stimmung wird den Kurs die nächsten Tage noch weiter drücken.Hoffe, dass die 6,77 bzw. 6,50 CAN$ halten.
Denke, dass heute die Rohstoffaktien nochmal eine auf die Mütze bekommen, da man sie nicht über das WE halten will (Kurzfristtrader)
Wie man an den Umsätzen der vergangenen Tage gut sehen kann, handeln hier keine Investoren sonder Leute die schnelles Geld machen wollen.
Eigentlich müssten doch schon erste Ergebnisse aus dem Test vorliegen, oder gibt es hier irgendwelche Verzögerungen ?

Niki

[motz1]

Hi niki550525, danke für deine Chartbetrachtungen!

In Schweden ist heute Mittsommer, die Börse hat geschlossen. Canada allein ist leicht zu beeinflussen.

Gerüchteweise ist das Ngamia-Testing abgeschlossen und diese Crew zieht weiter.
Durch AOI (Corporate Presentation und Präsentation von KH in Stockholm) wurde bestätigt, dass bei Ngamia weitere pay zones gefunden und getestet werden. Ich denke das ist der Grund für die länger dauernden Tests dort. Wir sollten imho zwischen Montag und Mittwoch was hören. Kommendes WE ist wieder ein verlängertes für die Schweden, daher denke/hoffe ich Info Anfang kommender Woche...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.894.125 von motz1 am 21.06.13 11:32:12

Hi motz1, danke auch für Deine Info
Niki

[motz1]

James Phillips war am 11. Juni auf der Africa Assembly von Oil Council in Paris.
Warum sie ihn als "Jim" vorstellen ist mir nicht ganz klar :



Damals meinte er, dass Sabisa noch etwa 7-10 Tage brauche...

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.896.991 von motz1 am 21.06.13 17:12:19

Ein super Fund, motz1, und ein wunderbares Interview...

Bei Etuko müsste man längst den Auwerwer Sandstone gedrillt haben und das Management sollte bereits die Logs dazu kennen und wenn man dann hört, wie Mr. Phillips das Ding kommentiert.... (I like it... )

Was mich jedoch überrascht hatte, ist dass er beim Ngamia Testing von 6 zu testenden Zonen spricht; irgendwie gab es ja Spekulationen nach dem letzten Keith Hill Auftritt, dass man zwei zusätzliche Zonen testen würde...

Andererseits geht er fest davon aus, dass man net Pay erhöhen wird... Zu cool... Wir haben im Auwerwer ja schon 100+ gennant bekommen plus die rund 40m im lower Lokhone sds. Jetzt bin ich schon gespannt, wie groß man die Vertikale Pay Zone einschätzt... Ich wäre nicht überrascht, wenn man am Ende 160 bis 180m net Pay in der well hat... Das wäre schon ein absoluter Hammer....

Bald gibts News; sehr gespannt, was uns da erwartet...

[niki550525]

Freitag GAP close. :-)
Niki

[texas2]

James Phillips hat doch etwas von 10 d gesagt.
Gehen wir davon aus dass sich die Zeitangabe darauf bezieht, dass alles perfekt ohne Zeitverzögerungen funzt.
Also Daumen drücken und hoffen dass es sehr viele bbl Öl für AOI werden.
Bisher hatte ich keine HRN, werde diese jetzt aber genauer beobachten

[motz1]

Tja der Phillips setzt ein extremes Pokerface auf und kann keine Informationen zum Etuko-Drillig geben, betont aber im gleichen Atemzug die hohe Bedeutung der Well.
Und bei Sabisa kommt er ungewollt (Min 5:28)ins Schwärmen .


@gimo211
imho passt das mit den Ngamia-Zonen. Ganz zu Beginn sollten 4 Zonen (3 im Auwerwer, 1 im Lower Lokhone) getestet werden, Vgl. März-Präsentation S.8.




Seit der Mai-Präsentation werden 6 Zonen (5 im Auwerwer) gezeigt die getestet werden, Vgl. AGM-Präse S.7.




Fingers crossed

[motz1]

RionsRun hat auf stockhouse ähnliche Überlegungen zum Fast-Tracking des Lokichar Basins angestellt wie sie hier bereits diskutiert wurden:

.............

According to Phillips the Companies hope to reach the commercial threshold of 300-500 MMBBL in the Lokichar Basin by the end of this year or early 2014. Lokichar is being fast tracked my assumption is that it will be sold or farmed out first. I don't know if its possible to formulate certain aspects of the Plan of Development at this stage for a head start. But the POD will follow asap, then the sale. Kenya will control the sale and that I would think will be pretty quick as Kenya's much desired infrastructure depends on it and Kenya has its favorites. Tullow will farm-out, AOI would have sold the entire Company if not for the pending capital gains tax which may or may not be softened. If the capital gains remains harsh AOI will also farm-out.

My speculative take. -Rion

http://www.directorstalk.com/video-drake-lawhead-talks-to-ji…

pg. 9

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-06_AOI-AGMP.pdf

[gimo211]

... Genau, wie wir es hier schon diskutiert haben! Danke, motz1, für den Beitrag von RionsRun!

... Wir wissen es sogar schon etwas genauer...

* KH sprach im Interview von 15-30% Share, den sie im Falle eines farmout behalten wollen; Abhängig von der Größe der Discoveries / prospektiven Resources. Dafür gibt es im Herbst ein neues unabhängiges Gutachten, welches Twiga, Ngamia und vermutlich auch Etuko Ergebnisse berücksichtigen wird.

* das farmout betrifft dann South Lokichar Basin und somit die Blöcke 13T und 10BB

* Tullow sagte, sie streben an etwa 30-35% interest für ein free carried zu behalten. Dh. ein Super Major (ich denke, es wird einen neuen Partner geben, der mit AOC und TLW einen Deal macht und nicht zwei...) erhält insgesamt 35-55%; wird Operator und trägt TLW und AOC free carried in die Produktionsphase.

* das farmout geschieht irgendwann in 2014 und man strebt an schnellst möglich 300-500 mmbbls 2P Reserven nachzuweisen. Das schafft man bis Ende 2013 oder Anfang 2014 (und so wie es aussieht, schafft man das vielleicht schon Twiga, Ngamia und vielleicht Etuko allein - bis Ende des Jahres kommt dann noch Twiga updip und die well, die man bei AOC bereits als "given" bezeichnet Ekales (zwischen Twiga und Ngamia an der Bounding Fault) hinzu.

* parallel bemüht man sich um weiter "Basin Opener Discoveries" - die ersten sind PaiPai und Sabisa. Das Ziel ist dort dann sicher die Wiederholung des South Lokichar Konzeptes...

* So wird AOC das nächste Tullow und irgendwann gehen die Company an einen Super Major, jedoch wohl nicht für unter 50 Dollar per Share.

* Und HRN wird das nächste AOC...
(Auch ohne Somalia. Dort wartet man wohl erstmal ab, bis sicher die Rechtsfragen sortiert haben; zuvor wird dort wohl keine Explorations-Kohle investiert. Die nächste well muss erst in 2015 gedrillt werden. Ziemlich doof für RMP und RRS...)

I like Lukas Lundin!

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.903.455 von gimo211 am 23.06.13 10:49:16

Besten Dank für dein wrap up, Fahrplan sieht gut aus .

Ich habe gerade auf stockhouse vorbeigeschaut. Alles was mir dazu einfällt ist OMG. Usability?

[Sharespezi669]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde von a.mueller moderiert. Grund: Spam, Werbung

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.903.455 von gimo211 am 23.06.13 10:49:16

Tullow sagte, sie streben an etwa 30-35% interest für ein free carried zu behalten. Dh. ein Super Major (ich denke, es wird einen neuen Partner geben, der mit AOC und TLW einen Deal macht und nicht zwei...) erhält insgesamt 35-55%; wird Operator und trägt TLW und AOC free carried in die Produktionsphase

So wird AOC das nächste Tullow und irgendwann gehen die Company an einen Super Major, jedoch wohl nicht für unter 50 Dollar per Share.

In meiner Glaskugel wäre das eines der favorisierten Zukunftsszenarien wobei ich denke ein Major (die wollen dann vielleicht 50%) als Operator kann von AOI und TLW Anteile an der jeweiligen Konzession für einen free carry bekommen ...

Wichtig ist erst aber einmal dass in den AOI Konzessionen Öl ohne Ende getestet wird, so viel, dass sich die big boys darum kloppen ...

[motz1]

Für einen FAZ-Artikel bemerkenswert bescheiden recherchiert was Details angeht, in Teilen aber lesenswert:

........................

Obamas Wirtschaftsreise Warum Amerika gerade in Afrika nach Öl sucht

24.06.2013 · Barack Obama bereist einen Kontinent, der die Rohstoffversorgung der Vereinigten Staaten sicherer machen soll. Öl wird schon gefördert. Das ist leichter als im Nahen Osten.
Von Christian von Hiller

A worker pours crude oil into a locally made burner using a funnel at an illegal oil refinery site © REUTERS
Begehrt: Nigeria verfügt über große Ölvorkommen


Ein Mann hat den afrikanischen Kontinent verändert wie nur wenige in den vergangenen 30 Jahren. Dennoch dürfte er wohl (noch) weitgehend unerkannt reisen, sein Name ist selten geläufig: Aidan Heavey. Sein Unternehmen, Tullow Oil, ist es über die Grenzen der Ölindustrie hinaus wohl auch. Dabei hat Heavey, der im Jahr 1985 im irischen Ort Tullow sein Explorationsunternehmen gründete, das Zeug, die geostrategische Weltkarte von Grund auf zu verändern.

Tullow Oil sucht und fördert in Gegenden Öl, in denen die Vereinigten Staaten mehr und mehr die Zukunft ihrer Versorgung mit dem wertvollen Rohstoff sehen. Der ölreiche Nahe Osten, so die Analyse vieler Beobachter in Amerika, wird auf Jahre hinaus ein politisch schwieriges Terrain sein: Die einen Öl produzierenden Länder werden entweder politisch immer wieder Phasen der Instabilität erleben, andere Machthaber besitzen, die den Amerikanern nicht freundlich gesonnen sind. Hinzu kommt, dass sich die Öltanker durch Meerengen wie die Straße von Hormus oder den Golf von Aden zwängen müssen. Viele amerikanische Ölkonzerne versuchen, die Abhängigkeit von Ländern wie Iran, Irak und womöglich auch Saudi-Arabien zu verringern.

Ganz anders verhält es sich mit Westafrika: Hier liegen die großen Reserven der Zukunft, die noch gar nicht alle exploriert sind. Hier ist der Atlantik breit und offen, der Transport des begehrten Öl gefahrlos über den Ozean möglich. Außerdem liegen viele Ölfelder draußen im Meer. Dort ist - anders als auf dem Festland in Nigeria - die Ölindustrie nicht immer wieder Zielscheibe gut bewaffneter Banden, die Löcher in Pipelines sprengen, um Öl zu stehlen und die zudem eine verseuchte Landschaft zurückzulassen.

Lauter neue Ölförderländer

Tullow Oil, das in der Zwischenzeit seinen Sitz nach London verlagert hat und dessen Aktien an der Börse im britischen Aktienleitindex FTSE 100 notiert sind, besitzt heute mehr als 150 Bohrlizenzen in 25 Ländern und 67 in Betrieb genommene Ölfelder. 79.200 Fass Öl (je 159 Litern) förderte Tullow Oil im vergangenen Jahr. Interessanter als die Menge sind die Orte, in den Tullow Oil aktiv ist: in Ghana, in Uganda, in Kenia und selbst in Französisch Guyana in Lateinamerika.

Auch das passt. Denn die lateinamerikanischen Ölfelder in Brasilien oder eben auch in Französisch Guyana und jene in Westafrika sind geologisch gesehen eins - sie stammen aus der Zeit, in der Lateinamerika und Afrika noch einen einzigen Kontinent bildeten.

Im Jahr 2007 wurde die Weltöffentlichkeit zum ersten Mal auf Tullow Oil aufmerksam: Die Männer um Heavey entdeckten im Meer vor der Küste Ghanas das Ölfeld Jubilee. Kaum bemerkt wiederum begann Ende des Jahres 2010 dort die Förderung.

Ähnliche Funde sind Tullow Oil, aber auch anderen Explorationsunternehmen, andernorts entlang der westafrikanischen Küste gelungen. In Sierra Leone hat die Regierung das Meer vor der Küste schon in Abbaugebiete unterteilt, die derzeit versteigert werden. Genauso wird auch Liberia in den nächsten Jahren zu einem Ölförderland aufsteigen - so wie es heute schon Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, Äquatorialguinea, Südsudan und Algerien sind.

China gegen Amerika

Bis in Uganda und Kenia Öl gefördert wird, werden noch einige Jahre vergehen. Doch der politische Streit um die Trassenführung an die Küste und den Bau eines neuen Verlade-Terminals an der Küste ist längst entbrannt. Selbstverständlich hat die chinesische Regierung großes Interesse an diesen Vorkommen und unterstützt beispielsweise auch erste Explorationen in Äthiopien.

In Afrika treffen somit die Wirtschaftsinteressen der Vereinigten Staaten und Chinas direkt aufeinander. Deshalb verwundert nicht, dass Präsident Barack Obama nun den afrikanischen Kontinent bereist - verwunderlich ist eher, dass er so lange damit gewartet hat. Denn die neue chinesische Führung war schon längst dort.

Auch wenn Obama dieses Mal Senegal, Südafrika und Tansania bereist und somit keines der bedeutendsten afrikanischen Ölländer, bleibt Öl das wohl wichtigste amerikanische Interesse. Gleichwohl gibt es auch andere klare wirtschaftliche Gründe für seine Reise: Denn abgesehen vom Öl hat Afrika eine aufstrebende Mittelschicht zu bieten, die auch als Abnehmer zunehmend für die amerikanische Industrie von Interesse sein wird.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/oba…

P.s.: Die genannte Fördermenge z.B. ist richtig, die Einheit aber falsch; es handelt sich um bopd, also die durchschnittliche tägliche Fördermenge des vergangenen Jahres.

[motz1]

Unser Partner Marathon hat einen weiteren Schritt in seiner Portfoliobereinigung gemacht; nun gibt es wieder ein Bisschen Cash für Exploration.

--------------------------------------------

Angola: CNPC buys Marathon's Angola oil fields for $1.52 billion
23 Jun 2013



China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has agreed to buy Marathon Oil Corp's Angolan offshore oil and gas fields for $1.52 billion, the country's top oil and gas producer said, marking its second major acquisition in Africa. Sonangal Sinopec International, a wholly-owned unit of CNPC, will acquire Houston-based Marathon's 10 percent stake on the Angolan fields in Block 31, it said in a statement late on Friday.

CNPC, the parent of listed company PetroChina, has been on an aggressive hunt for overseas assets to bulk up China's energy reserves to meet future demand from the world's second-largest economy. It agreed in March to buy a $4.2-billion stake in a Mozambique offshore natural gas field and on Friday agreed to buy a 20 percent stake in Novatek's $20-billion Yamal-LNG project in northwest Siberia.

The Angolan Block 31 fields, operated by BP, have estimated proved and probable reserves of 533 million barrels, CNPC said, adding that it would hold a stake of 15 percent in the block when the transaction was completed. The $1.52 billion due to be paid by CNPC is part of a $3-billion asset disposal target set by Marathon in 2011 to shore up its balance sheet to fund further exploration and development projects.

The deal is subject to approval by the Chinese and Angolan governments.

Block 31 contains the PSVM fields. On January 31 2013, Sonangol E.P., as the concessionaire, BP Exploration Angola, as the operator, and the partners of Block 31, announced that production from the PSVM development area in Block 31, offshore Angola, had started. Initial production comes from three production wells in Plutao field and is expected to ramp up to around 70,000 barrels of oil per day. PSVM is expected to build towards plateau rates of 150,000 barrels of oil per day over the coming year with the additional production from Saturno and Venus fields in 2013 and Marte in 2014. See: Angola Production Starts at BP-Operated PSVM Project for further details.

Original article link

Source: Reuters / energy-pedia

http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/angola/new-155141

[motz1]

Nächster Zug im Pipeline-Poker. Wendet sich das Blatt zum Guten? 2 Pipelines für East Africa und beide durch Kenya, eine nach Lamu, eine nach Mombasa?

------------------

Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda agree to build 2 oil pipelines for East Africa; 1 to reach South Sudan

Published June 25, 2013

KAMPALA, Uganda – Uganda's foreign minister says the presidents of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda have agreed to build two pipelines across East Africa, one of which would end South Sudan's dependence on Sudan for its oil exports.

Minister Sam Kutesa said the three presidents, who held a joint meeting in Uganda on Tuesday, decided the pipelines were crucial for unity in East Africa, which is experiencing an energy boom sparked by oil and gas discoveries in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

He said one of the pipelines will stretch from South Sudan to Kenya's island town of Lamu and the other from Rwanda to the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

Currently South Sudan can only export its oil through Sudan. But the two countries disagree over transit prices and security issues on their shared border.


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/06/25/uganda-kenya-rwanda-…

[motz1]

Marathon hat eine Präsentation die Anfang der Woche gehalten wurde veröffentlicht. Die Slides zu Kenya und Ethiopia:





http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-DZ30I/2552460759…

[gimo211]

Achtung RUMOURS: "Oil at Etuko"


Kurz nochmals die Bedeutung von Etuko laut Keith Hill:

Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "The Etuko prospect is one of the most attractive prospects in our portfolio and has the potential to open up an new play fairway on the eastern side of the already proven Lockichar Basin. A number of additional prospects and leads will be de-risked on this 'eastern flank' play if the Etuko well is successful. With three rigs active and three more on the way, the second half of 2013 promises to be a very exciting period in the continuing growth story of the Company in East Africa."

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.941.101 von gimo211 am 28.06.13 05:48:14

wenn die wörtchen if, prospect, lead nicht wären, wäre ich schon lange ...
wissen tut mans erst wenn wirklich öl produziert wird

[abionaut]

Kenyatta erhöht sein Augenmerk auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und will es ausländischen Investoren in Zukunft leichter machen:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-26/kenya-to-repeal-loc…

[gimo211]

I know, Texas....

Aber die Quelle ist gut...

Auf Stockhouse ist es User NgamiaSwede; er nennt sich auf iHub Swede1... Und ich habe gute Gründe, ihn sehr hoch zu schätzen...

Aber natürlich kann auch falsch informiert sein, daher rumours...

[abionaut]

Interessanter Artikel hinsichtlich der im Raum stehenden 35%-Regel. Gepostet von Enterprise84333 auf Stockhouse:

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-126217/good-technocra…

[niki550525]

Schon komisch,die Ergebnisse sind überfällig.
Entgegen früherer Veröffentlichungen gab es wenigstens kurz vorher Gerüchte und auffälliges Kaufverhalten.
Derzeit nichts dergleichen........
Hoffentlich ist das kein schlechtes Zeichen........
Hilft nur warten.
Niki

[gabbo62]

Geht mal von einer News morgen früh um 08:00 Uhr aus.
Tullow Oil hat für morgen Operational Update auf der Agenda.

03 Jul 2013
Trading Statement and Operational Update Regulatory announcement and conference calls

http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=119

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.965.069 von gabbo62 am 02.07.13 10:55:56

Danke Gabbo62,
was mich aber verwundert, ist dass das/die Ergebnisse bei einer geplanten Trading Statement Telefonkonverenz veröffentlicht werden soll.
Von anderen Unternehmen gibt es hierzu oft ein Trading Hold bei guten Ergebnissen.
Also entweder eine coole Vorgehensweise oder die Ergebnisse sind nicht das was alle erwarten.
Erwartet werden > 10 000 Barrel pro Tag und das ist m.E. bereits in diesem Kurs enthalten. Alles andere führt zum Abverkauf und dementsprechenden Kursrückgang.
Niki

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.966.083 von niki550525 am 02.07.13 13:19:49

Hallo niki,

ich sehe darin nichts ungewöhnliches. Tullow hat eine Market Cap von rund 10 Mrd Pfund und eine durchschnittliche tägliche Fördermenge von 80.000 Barrels. Der Impact ist für AOI deutlich größer als für Tullow...

Der Termin 03.07. steht (gefühlt) schon seit einer halben Ewigkeit fest, die nächsten sind auch schon einsehbar. Tullow macht das immer zweimal im Jahr und hat zusätzlich zwei Interim Management Statements. http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=119
Zudem schätze ich (nicht nachgeprüft) dass der call vor Börsenöffnung beendet wird, also auch insofern imho kein Problem.

Lassen wir mal dahin gestellt, was im Kurs eingepreist ist und was nicht. Meine ursprüngliche Hoffnung (Herbst '12) waren flows > 5.000 bopd. Nach Twiga wissen wir, dass diese möglich sind und wir wissen auch dass sich das net pay vergrößert hat. Ich hoffe dass wir die 10.000 bopd deutlich knacken werden, im optimierten Fall (Well-Design, Pumpen, Location...) dann auf alle Fälle.
Aber das sind Spekulationen, wir werden es erst mit der Tullow-NR wissen .

Das alles imvho.

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.966.681 von motz1 am 02.07.13 14:34:59

Hallo motz1,
es scheint als hättest Du gestern Recht gehabt der Kurs springt gerade an
Niki

[niki550525]

NGAMIA WELL FLOWS AT OVER 3200 BOPD AND DOUBLES NET PAY
NEW MAJOR OIL DISCOVERY AT ETUKO AND CONFIRMATION OF OIL
SYSTEM EXTENSION INTO ETHIOPIA BY SABISA WELL
July 3, 2013 (AOI – TSXV, AOI - NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil” or the “Company”) is
pleased to announce excellent results from its recent drilling operations in Kenya and Ethiopia.
The testing program at the Ngamia-1 oil discovery on Block 10BB in Kenya has now been successfully
completed. The cumulative flow rate from six Drill Stem Tests (“DST’s”) was over 3200 barrels of oil per
day (“BOPD”) constrained by completion techniques and surface equipment. With optimized completion
techniques and surface equipment it is estimated that these combined flow rates would increase to a rate
of 5400 BOPD. Five of the DSTs were completed over the Auwerwer sandstones to verify reservoir
quality and fluid content which appear to be of similar quality to those tested at the Twiga South-1 well in
the same basin. High quality waxy sweet crude (25-35 degrees API) was flowed from all five zones in the
Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered. All zones produced dry oil with no
water produced and no pressure depletion. One DST was completed on the Lower Lokhone with
successful results as previously announced on April 15, 2013.
In addition to proving the good quality reservoir, as a result of testing several previously indeterminate
zones in the well, the joint venture has been able to double the firm net oil pay estimate in the Ngamia
well to over 200 meters over a gross oil column of over 1,100 meters and has increased the net pay at
Twiga to over 75 meters. The Operator, Tullow Oil, has reported that they believe the Ngamia and Twiga
fields contain over 250 million barrels of recoverable oil. Appraisal work, including the acquisition of 3D
seismic and the drilling of appraisal wells on both discoveries, will be undertaken over the next year to
confirm these estimates. A mid-year revision to the Company’s third party resource report is ongoing and
is expected to be issued in the third quarter and will take into account these improved reservoir thickness
and quality parameters.
The Weatherford 804 rig used to test this well is currently being mobilized 13 kilometers north to the
Ekales location, a prospect similar to and located between the Twiga and Ngamia discoveries, which is
expected to spud in late July.
The Company is also pleased to announce that oil has been discovered in the Etuko prospect in the
Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB in Kenya. This well was located on a tilted fault block target on the Basin
Flank Play on eastern side of the basin. Based on logs and oil recovered by MDT sampling, net pay of 40
meters has been confirmed in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets which demonstrate good
reservoir properties and oil quality. Within the Upper Lokhone sequence the well encountered a thick
section of lacustrine source rocks with interbedded oil-bearing sandstones. The well is currently drilling in
the Lower Lokhone sands and results from this lower section are expected by the end of July.
The Company is also pleased to announce that the Sabisa-1 well, the most northerly well drilled in the
trend to date, has confirmed a viable hydrocarbon system in this region. The well was drilled on the
South Omo Block in Ethiopia in the northern portion of the Turkana Basin, over 300 kilometers north of
the Ngamia and Twiga discoveries, to a total depth of 2082 meters. The well encountered reservoir
quality sands, oil shows and heavy gas shows indicating an oil prone source rock and a thick shale
section which should provide good seals for the numerous fault bounded traps identified in the basin.
Only the lowermost sands appear to be in trapping configuration at Sabisa. Based on the encouragement
of the results of this well however, the decision has been made to drill the nearby Tultule prospect which
appears to be a horst-block structure 4 kilometers to the east. The OGEC 75 rig move has been initiated
and a late third quarter spud is expected. Numerous additional follow-up prospects have been mapped in
this part of the South Omo Block and in the adjacent Chew Bahir Basin.
Preparations continue for drilling in both the Kenya Block 9 Bahasi prospect and the Ethiopia Ogaden
Basin Block 8 El Kuran prospect. Africa Oil will operate the Bahasi well on behalf of its 50% joint venture
partner Marathon Oil and will utilize the Great Wall drilling rig #190. The prospect is a large anticlinal
feature in the Lower Cretaceous Anza rift and is on trend with the Paipai discovery made early this year in
Kenya Block 10A. The El Kuran well is being operated by New African Global Energy and is expected to
spud in July. It is a Jurassic fractured carbonate play on a large anticlinal feature that had previously been
drilled by Tenneco in the early 1970’s and had tested light oil at low rates. The primary goal of this well is
to prove commercial flow rates. Based on the results of the initial well, fracture stimulation and horizontal
drilling may be considered. An additional lightweight rig for testing and drilling operations is also being
mobilized into the Lokichar Basin in Kenya which will bring the total rig count to six in the Company’s
blocks in Kenya and Ethiopia. A Full Tensor Gradiometry (“FTG”) survey is also currently underway in the
Company’s wholly owned Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia and is expected to be completed in August.

[motz1]

Die NR von heute:

..............

Ngamia Well Flows at Over 3200 BOPD and Doubles Net Pay New Major Oil Discovery at Etuko and Confirmation of Oil System Extension Into Ethiopia by Sabisa Well

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 3, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") is pleased to announce excellent results from its recent drilling operations in Kenya and Ethiopia.

The testing program at the Ngamia-1 oil discovery on Block 10BB in Kenya has now been successfully completed. The cumulative flow rate from six Drill Stem Tests ("DST's") was over 3200 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD") constrained by completion techniques and surface equipment. With optimized completion techniques and surface equipment it is estimated that these combined flow rates would increase to a rate of 5400 BOPD. Five of the DSTs were completed over the Auwerwer sandstones to verify reservoir quality and fluid content which appear to be of similar quality to those tested at the Twiga South-1 well in the same basin. High quality waxy sweet crude (25-35 degrees API) was flowed from all five zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered. All zones produced dry oil with no water produced and no pressure depletion. One DST was completed on the Lower Lokhone with successful results as previously announced on April 15, 2013.

In addition to proving the good quality reservoir, as a result of testing several previously indeterminate zones in the well, the joint venture has been able to double the firm net oil pay estimate in the Ngamia well to over 200 meters over a gross oil column of over 1,100 meters and has increased the net pay at Twiga to over 75 meters. The Operator, Tullow Oil, has reported that they believe the Ngamia and Twiga fields contain over 250 million barrels of recoverable oil. Appraisal work, including the acquisition of 3D seismic and the drilling of appraisal wells on both discoveries, will be undertaken over the next year to confirm these estimates. A mid-year revision to the Company's third party resource report is ongoing and is expected to be issued in the third quarter and will take into account these improved reservoir thickness and quality parameters.

The Weatherford 804 rig used to test this well is currently being mobilized 13 kilometers north to the Ekales location, a prospect similar to and located between the Twiga and Ngamia discoveries, which is expected to spud in late July.

The Company is also pleased to announce that oil has been discovered in the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB in Kenya. This well was located on a tilted fault block target on the Basin Flank Play on eastern side of the basin. Based on logs and oil recovered by MDT sampling, net pay of 40 meters has been confirmed in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets which demonstrate good reservoir properties and oil quality. Within the Upper Lokhone sequence the well encountered a thick section of lacustrine source rocks with interbedded oil-bearing sandstones. The well is currently drilling in the Lower Lokhone sands and results from this lower section are expected by the end of July.

The Company is also pleased to announce that the Sabisa-1 well, the most northerly well drilled in the trend to date, has confirmed a viable hydrocarbon system in this region. The well was drilled on the South Omo Block in Ethiopia in the northern portion of the Turkana Basin, over 300 kilometers north of the Ngamia and Twiga discoveries, to a total depth of 2082 meters. The well encountered reservoir quality sands, oil shows and heavy gas shows indicating an oil prone source rock and a thick shale section which should provide a good seals for the numerous fault bounded traps identified in the basin. Only the lowermost sands appear to be in trapping configuration at Sabisa. Based on the encouragement of the results of this well however, the decision has been made to drill the nearby Tultule prospect which appears to be a horst-block structure 4 kilometers to the east. The OGEC 75 rig move has been initiated and a late third quarter spud is expected. Numerous additional follow-up prospects have been mapped in this part of the South Omo Block and in the adjacent Chew Bahir Basin.

Preparations continue for drilling in both the Kenya Block 9 Bahasi prospect and the Ethiopia Ogaden Basin Block 8 El Kuran prospect. Africa Oil will operate the Bahasi well on behalf of its 50% joint venture partner Marathon Oil and will utilize the Great Wall drilling rig #190. The prospect is a large anticlinal feature in the Lower Cretaceous Anza rift and is on trend with the Paipai discovery made early this year in Kenya Block 10A. The El Kuran well is being operated by New African Global Energy and is expected to spud in July. It is a Jurassic fractured carbonate play on a large anticlinal feature that had previously been drilled by Tenneco in the early 1970's and had tested light oil at low rates. The primary goal of this well is to prove commercial flow rates. Based on the results of the initial well, fracture stimulation and horizontal drilling may be considered. An additional lightweight rig for testing and drilling operations is also being mobilized into the Lokichar Basin in Kenya which will bring the total rig count to six in the Company's blocks in Kenya and Ethiopia. A Full Tensor Gradiometry ("FTG") survey is also currently underway in the Company's wholly owned Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia and is expected to be completed in August.

Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "We are very pleased with the results of the Ngamia-1 testing program which has confirmed the productivity of both the Lower Lokhone reservoir and the high quality Auwerwer reservoir and significantly increased the net pay in the well. Ngamia is a world-class oil discovery and these results move us towards achieving the threshold for a commercial development in the Lokichar basin. This encouragement has caused us to set in motion appraisal of the Ngamia-Twiga trend and to assemble a technical team to commence early development planning both for a large scale pipeline development and an early development scheme. The Etuko discovery also opens up a new fairway on the eastern flank play in Lokichar where a number of other large scale prospects have been identified. The Sabisa results are also highly encouraging as all the major components for oil accumulation appear to have been proven in one of our largest and most prospective frontier basins in the portfolio. The second half of 2013 promises to be an exciting and transformational period in the growth history of the Company."

http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=61201134&qm_symbo…

[Comer]

...epur si muove

[Comer]

lapsus calami:

eppur

[motz1]

@Niki: Ich war zu langsam... Interessant wird die Börsenöffnung in Stockholm: http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/aktier/fnshareinformation?Ins…




Hier noch die Infos von Tullow:

..................

3 Jul 2013

Trading statement and operational update
•New oil discovery at Etuko-1; Sabisa-1 sidetrack establishes oil prone system
•Significant upgrade to Ngamia and Twiga-South oil resources
•Government approval of TEN project; contract awards under way

03 July 2013 – Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) issues an Operational Update summarising key activities since the Interim Management Statement on 8 May 2013 and a Trading Statement in respect of its half yearly financials to 30 June 2013. This is in advance of the Group’s Half-Yearly Results, which are scheduled for release on Wednesday 31 July 2013. The information contained herein has not been audited and may be subject to further review.

Download Tullow Oil plc Trading Statement and Operational Update

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE SAID:

“Over the past two months, Tullow has made major progress in three key areas of its operations. In Kenya, we have significantly upgraded our resource estimates for the South Lokichar Basin following the highly successful flow testing of Ngamia and Twiga-South. Additionally in Kenya, Tullow has made a new discovery at Etuko-1. In Ghana, the Government has approved the plan of development for the TEN project, our second offshore project in the country. In Uganda, we have made substantial progress with our partners and the Government and expect to sign a Memorandum of Understanding which will outline the key principles for the development of the Lake Albert Basin development. We also continue to have an industry-leading exploration and appraisal programme with results from key frontier wells in Kenya, Ethiopia, French Guiana, Norway and Mauritania all expected in the second half of the year. With high-quality production continuing to underpin our financial position, we are well placed for the remainder of this year and into 2014.”

http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137&newsid=849


Operational Update

Exploration & Appraisal

In the first half of 2013 Tullow has drilled 9 exploration wells and 11 appraisal wells across the portfolio with a
60% overall success ratio. The most significant well results during the period were the Etuko-1 oil discovery in
Kenya and encountering an oil prone system in Ethiopia with the Sabisa-1 well. Additionally, we have
successfully flow-tested Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 in Kenya and materially increased our estimate of the
resources from both fields. In the second half of the year, some 20 exploration wells are planned targeting
multiple basins in Kenya, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Mauritania, French Guiana and our first operated well in
Norway. The current view of the rolling 12 month exploration and appraisal programme is contained in Table 1
at the end of this announcement.

Kenya
Exploration and Appraisal activity across Tullow’s operated acreage in Kenya continues to be very successful.
The flow testing programme at Ngamia-1 in the Lokichar Basin has now been successfully completed with a
cumulative constrained flow rate totalling 3,200 bpd of 25 to 35 degree API sweet waxy oil with no indication
of pressure depletion. Analysis of the test data from both the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 wells has resulted in
the doubling of our previous estimates of net oil pay to 200 metres and 75 metres respectively, an optimised
flow rate potential of around 5,000 bopd per well and significantly increased discovered volumes. The
combined mean associated resources for the two discoveries is now estimated to be over 250 mmbo with the
potential to increase further following appraisal.
Ekales-1, the next exploration well in the Basin Bounding Fault Play on trend with Ngamia and Twiga-South, will
commence drilling in late July 2013. A 550sqkm 3D survey over the area, which will support our appraisal
programme, will commence in the third quarter of 2013. The full Kenya schedule is detailed in Table 1 at the
end of this announcement.
In May 2013, drilling commenced on the Etuko prospect, 14 km east of Twiga South-1 in Block 10BB. This is the
first test of the Basin Flank Play in the South Lockichar Basin and results of drilling, wireline logs and samples of
reservoir fluid confirm a new oil discovery with net pay of over 40 metres in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone
targets. The well is now drilling the Lower Lokhone sands and results from this lower section are expected by
the end of July.These results are an important step towards understanding the commerciality of the Lokichar Basin and, as we
advance towards the commercial threshold for development, Tullow continues to work in consultation with the
Government of Kenya on development options.
Following recent successes a third rig and a dedicated testing unit have been contracted to support increased
exploration and appraisal activity in Kenya by year-end.

Ethiopia
In Ethiopia, the Sabisa-1 well, the most northerly well drilled in our East African acreage to date, has
established that the hydrocarbon system in that area is oil prone. The well commenced drilling in the South
Omo licence in January 2013 but due to hole instability a sidetrack had to be drilled. The well has encountered
reservoir quality sands, oil and heavy gas shows indicating an oil prone source rock and a thick shale section
which should provide good seals for the numerous fault bounded traps identified in the basin. Following this
encouraging result, the decision has been taken to drill the nearby Tultule prospect, an attractive structure four
kilometres east of Sabisa-1. The well is expected to commence late in the third quarter of 2013. Numerous
additional follow-up prospects have been mapped in this part of the South Omo Block and in the adjacent
Chew Bahir Basin.

http://files.the-group.net/library/tullow/pdf/Tullow_Oil_plc…


Was Tullow in Kenya und Ethiopia plant:

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.971.377 von motz1 am 03.07.13 08:53:49

Das Bild wurde scheinbar nicht richtig hochgeladen:

[motz1]

Ein gutes Update. Wermutstropfen sind imho die Flow Rate von Ngamia, da hatte ich mir mehr erhofft und das Sabisa-Ergebnis. Nun ja, Appraisal bzw. Follow Up abwarten.

Insgesamt ist festzustellen, dass Tullow Kenya und Ethiopia nun an forderster Stelle nennen und in der Beschreibung selbst einen äußerst positiven Ton anschlägt.

Ngamia:
- Net Pay > 200m
- Flow Rate optimiert ~5.400bopd
- Tullow glaubt an > 250Miobbl recoverable oil in Ngamia und Twiga zusammen

Twiga:
- Net Pay > 75m

Etuko:
- 40m net pay in Auwerwer und Upper Lokhone
- öffnet neuen play type: Basin Flank Play, bereits mehrere follow ups identifiziert
- Derzeit Drilling im Lower Lokhone, Ergebnisse bis Ende July erwartet
- Sampling bereits erfolgreich

Sabisa:
- Total depth 2082m
- established oil prone hydrocarbon system
- Tultule als nächstes Drilling, beginnt Ende Q3


- Aidan Heavey (Tullow):
“Over the past two months, Tullow has made major progress in three key areas of its operations. In Kenya, we
have significantly upgraded our resource estimates for the South Lokichar Basin following the highly successful
flow testing of Ngamia and Twiga-South. Additionally in Kenya, Tullow has made a new discovery at Etuko-1.
[...]"
Kenya wird von Tullow bereits als eine ihrer drei key Areas bezeichnet - nice
Heavey scheint mit den flows recht zufrieden zu sein...

- Keith Hill: "We are very pleased with the results of the Ngamia-1 testing program which has confirmed the productivity of both the Lower Lokhone reservoir and the high quality Auwerwer reservoir and significantly increased the net pay in the well. Ngamia is a world-class oil discovery and these results move us towards achieving the threshold for a commercial development in the Lokichar basin. This encouragement has caused us to set in motion appraisal of the Ngamia-Twiga trend and to assemble a technical team to commence early development planning both for a large scale pipeline development and an early development scheme. The Etuko discovery also opens up a new fairway on the eastern flank play in Lokichar where a number of other large scale prospects have been identified. The Sabisa results are also highly encouraging as all the major components for oil accumulation appear to have been proven in one of our largest and most prospective frontier basins in the portfolio. The second half of 2013 promises to be an exciting and transformational period in the growth history of the Company."


- Block 9, Bahasi: Vorbereitungen laufen

- El Kuran (New Age): Spud in July

- Resource Report: Q3

- Weatherford 804 Rig zu Ekales Unterwegs (String of Pearls, zwischen Ngamia und Twiga), sehr hohe CoS, spud noch im July...


Alles in allem scheint Etuko der "Star" des Updates zu sein, damit sind einige andere ähnlich große prospects derisked... Btw, Etuko war von Beginn an das favorisierte Drilling von KH und AOI, wird mit Best Estimate von 231MMbbl (!) gschätzt.
Der Wert von Sabisa wird sich im Folgedrilling zeigen, allerdings stimmen die Vorzeichen.
Wie die Flow Rate von Ngamia im Appraisal aussieht bleibt abzuwarten.
Das Resource Update wird interessant, insbesondere wie die Reservoir-Qualität und die gesteigerten net pay-Werte sich aufeinander auswirken.

Tullow/AOI finden Öl, die Richtung stimmt.

Alles wie immer imho.

[bmann025]

Ist folgende Interpretation richtig ?

Bei 5400 Barrels/day und >125 Mio Barrels Reservoir dauert es mindestens 63 Jahre, bis das Oel gefoerdert ist.

Meinem naiven Verstaendnis nach bohrt man dann einfach zusaetzliche Zugaenge und vermehrfacht dadurch die Flowrate. Insofern ist die Reservoirgroesse die entscheidende Kennzahl und nicht die Flowrate.

{Das stimmt natuerlich nur, solange die Kosten einer Bohrung klein sind gegenueber dem Ertrag aus dem zusaetzlicehn Bohrloch, aber mit 4-stelliger Flowrrate ist das sicher gegeben.}

[Staberhuk]

"This encouragement has caused us to set in motion appraisal of the Ngamia-Twiga trend and to assemble a technical team to commence early development planning both for a large scale pipeline development and an early development scheme."

Diese Entscheidung zeigt die Überzeugung, in die weitere Zukunft und langfristig erfolgreich zu investieren und zeigt, dass AOI und Tullow noch von mehr Funden überzeugt sind.

Barack Obama sagte bei der Ehrung der damaligen Anschlagsopfer in Nairobi, dass sich die USA bei den Ölfunden in Ostafrika beteiligen will.

Alles ist großartig!

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.972.637 von bmann025 am 03.07.13 10:59:13

bmann,
sowohl Reservoirgröße als auch flow rates sind entscheidend.

Die flow rate spiegelt das Aufwand(Bohrkosten) / Ertrag(Förderbare Menge/Tag)-Verhältnis der Förderung wider, die Reservoirgröße lässt Rückschlüsse auf die maximal förderbare Menge zu und beeinflusst die Anzahl der zu bohrenden production wells.

Die erzielbaren flow rates beeinflussen wiederum wesentlich den asset-value, da eine hohe flow rate gleichbedeutend mit einer kurzen Amortisationsdauer ist. Für ein Farmout oder Verkauf der Company bedeutet das für den Käufer schnelleren Rückfluss des investierten Kapitals. Diese Rückflussdauer bestimmt wiederum nicht unerheblich den Kaufpreis mit...
Bisher sind die onshore gedrillten Kenya-wells noch sehr teuer (~40Mio USD), mit den jetzt gewonnenen Erkenntnissen hoffe ich auf eine signifikante Reduzierung der Bohrzeiten im Lokichar Basin und damit auf geringere Bohrkosten/well.

Ob die Rechnung mit niedrigen 4-stelligen flows (bei heutigen Bedingungen in East Africa) aufgeht wage ich zu bezweifeln. Mit zunehmender Infrastruktur und besserem geologischen Verständnis sollte das klappen. Mit 5.400bopd fühle ich mich in der Hinsicht aber ziemlich wohl.

Wenn AOI/Tullow eine Menge von 250MMbbls recoverable benennen, dann liegt der Oil in Place-Wert wohl bei rund einer Milliarde Barrels (Annahme: Recovery-Factor von 25%). Das ist alles alleine auf Ngamia und Twiga bezogen, das ist schon eine Hausnummer.
Eine vertikale Länge von über 200m ölführender Schicht in Ngamia ist überragend, bzw. "world class" wie es KH nennt...

[motz1]

City Research:

....................

Africa Oil Corp (AOIC.ST)

Alert: Moving Towards Commerciality in Kenya

- Positive results in Kenya sees big step forward towards commerciality –
Positive results from the flow tests at Ngamia and Twiga South have led to a
doubling of net pay estimates with resources at both Ngamia and Twiga South now
estimated by Tullow at over 250m bbls. In addition, the news that the Etuko well has
already discovered net pay of 40 metres brings the partners close to the threshold
for a commercial development project, in our view (c. 400m bbls). A project that
would sit attractively on our global cost curve at c. US$45/bbl break-even. High
drilling activity continues that could further de-risk the material resource base
identified across Kenya and is included in our Africa Oil base NAV of SEK82/share.
The shares look to be discounting c. 250mboe of net discovered resources (at
US$90/bbl) from Kenya, but we believe the full resource potential could be
significantly larger given the significant drilling inventory (>120 targets).

- Positive flow test results lead to a doubling of net pay at Ngamia – The
cumulative flow rate from the 6 drill stem tests at Ngamia was 3.2k b/d, which would
increase to c. 5k b/d under production conditions. The flow tests proved good
quality reservoir, which has led to a doubling of the net pay estimate in Ngamia to
over 200 metres. Tullow has indicated that the Ngamia and Twiga fields contain
over 250m bbls of recoverable oil, above our risked estimate of 220m bbls in our
Africa Oil NAV. Appraisal work (3D and appraisal wells) will be undertaken over the
next year to confirm these estimates. The rig will now move to drill the Ekales
prospect in July, which sits between the Twiga/Ngamia discoveries.

- Etuko discovery opens up new play in the Lokichar basin, drilling to complete
in July – the Etuko well has discovered net pay of 40 metres in the Auwerwer and
Upper Lokhone targets which demonstrate good reservoir properties and oil quality.
The well is currently drilling in the Lower Lokhone sands and results from this lower
section are expected by the end of July. The Etuko prospect is a large structure that
was estimated to hold up to 230 m bbls of gross resources before drilling.

- Sabisa result provides encouragement in Ethiopia – The well encountered
reservoir quality sands, oil shows and heavy gas shows, which provides
encouragement of a working hydrocarbon system in northern part of the Turkana
basin in the South Omo block (Ethiopia). The partners plan to drill the nearby Tultule
prospect in 3Q13, which appears to be a horst-block structure 4kms east of Sabisa.

- Near-term activity focused primarily on core play – Africa Oil plans to drill in
three key areas across Kenya and Ethiopia during 2013. However, the near-term
focus will remain the core play of the Lokichar Basin in Kenya (Block 10BB/13T)
where Africa Oil plans to complete the high-impact Etuko prospect in July and also
drill the Ekales-1 prospect in July. In addition, the Tultule prospect in the South Omo
block (Ethiopia) should also be drilled in 3Q13, with a two further rigs sourced to drill
in Block 8 in Ethiopia and in Block 9 (Kenya) during 3Q/4Q13.

https://ir.citi.com/FhfcRGBY1C7jthnuN3G%2BiEyYznDEfMOAFbuxsU…

[gimo211]

Ein prima Update... Etuko 40m Pay sind der Hammer... (Insbesondere mit Blick auf die horizontale Ausdehnung des Prospects...) - das kam doch überraschend (auch wenn der rumours sich in dieser Sache einmal mehr bestätigt hat... )

200+m Pay at Ngamia.. sensationell...

Sabisa habe ich jedoch auch auf eine Discovery gehofft... Aber gut...
"Heavy Gas" meint Condensate/Liquids!!

Mindestens 250 mmbbls resource bei Twiga und Ngamia... Wow... Und ich bin sicher, dass hier noch jede Menge Luft nach oben ist...

Das wird alles so groß - wunderbar....


Zu den Flowrates; motz1 hat natürlich recht: je größer der tägliche Flow, um so größer die täglichen revenues. Aber bis zur Produktion werden ohnehin noch einige Appraisal Wells gedrillt; die Flow Rates hängen an vielen Faktoren; die wichtigsten sind Reservoir Qualität und Formationsdruck; die Reservoir Qualität ist herausragend (Porosität und Permeability) - der Formationsdruck ist jedoch gering... Dennoch sind 5.000 bbls/d ein gutes Ergebnis - so wird man halt (wie bmann bereits formulierte) viele Jahrzehnte dort Öl produzieren... Alles gut!

I Love my AOCs...

[niki550525]

So wie es momentan aussieht ist die anfängliche Euphorie zumindest in Schweden, verflogen und die Marktteilnehmer nehmen da dann auch noch die letzten Gewinne mit. Derzeitiger Kurs bei 7,32 CAN$
Wenn man die Charttechnik in Kanada ansieht,dann haben wir heute ein Eröffnungsgap zwischen ca. 7,23 - 7,30 CAN$. Wäre eigentlich schön gewesen, wenn wir das nicht hätten. Einen kurzer Rücksetzer würde ich mir wünschen. Die Meldung ist raus, aber die Masse weis damit nicht viel anzufangen. Die Masse reagiert hier sehr stark nach der Meinung der Analysten und die kommt erst noch. Somit kann der Kursanstieg auch erst nach ein paar Tagen einsetzten. Wollen wir es mal hoffen.
Der Umsatz in der ersten halben Std ist hier doch recht mager.
RSI bei 52,43
Slow Sto bei 27,04 mit Trend nach oben, jedoch noch nicht im grünen Bereich.
MACD beginnt auch zu drehen, aber auch hier noch weit im roten Bereich.
Tja, wie schon gestern geschrieben sind Fakten das Eine und die Erwartung das Andere.
Mittel und Langfristig ergeben sich hier ungeahnte Kurssteigerungen.
Ich würde sagen, das bei einer anderen allgemeinen Situation ,Weltbörsen sind derzeit im Sinkmodus und Rohstoffaktien nicht der Hit, egal wie sie dastehen, der Kurs locker bei 10 CAN$ stehen könnte.
Meiner Meinung nach haben wir gute Chancen das wir auf heutigem Erkenntnisstand am Jahresende diese Marke überschritten haben.
Mal sehen Niki

[gimo211]

Es gibt kein Gap!

Prima, dann darf unser Baby sich nun brav entwickeln...

Die Ergebnisse heute sind fundamental wertvoll; man sollte dabei keinen allzu kurzfristigen Blick haben... Current Trading ist das eine; langfristige Aussichten das andere...

Wir haben mit zwei Wells mindestens 250 mmbbls recoverable - das ist ein Statement! Und so konservativ, wie Tullow zunächst seine Einschätzungen formuliert (net Pay Ngamia steigt von über 100m auf nun über 200m; net Pay Twiga nun auch bei über 75m...), würde ich mich nicht wundern, wenn wir schon jetzt eher bei einer halbe Milliarde bbls recoverable liegen...

Und da ist die Etuko Discovery nicht mit eingerechnet. Da hatten wir 250mmbls im Durchschnitt-Case und ich bin sicher, da ist man nicht von 40m Pay ausgegangen (sondern weniger...).

Das alles ist fundamental nicht zu ignorieren und lässt erahnen, was AOC für ein sensationelles Investment ist...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.976.631 von gimo211 am 03.07.13 18:36:30

Hast recht, jetzt nicht mehr!
GAP close.Mein bescheidener Wunsch ist in Erfuellung gegangen.
Niki

[niki550525]

Tja, war dann doch ein wenig übertrieben :-)
Alle Gewinne wurden nach und nach abgegeben. Trotz überzeugender News und hervorragenden Aussichten ist keine Kurssteigerung übrig geblieben. Sowas habe ich in meiner langjährigen Börsenzeit noch nie miterlebt.
Anscheinend stören sich doch viele an den Förderungsraten von 5300 statt der erwarteten 10 000 Barrel.
An die kursierenden Gerüchte / Vermutungen, dass wieder einige Fonds stark abverkauft haben, weil sie nicht mehr liquide bzw. Kursbereinigungen betreiben, mag ich nicht mehr glauben. Wer sich die Umsätze in Schweden ansieht kann erkennen, dass relativ kleine Blöcke umgesetzt worden sind. Tja und wenn viel verkauft wird, muß es doch auch einen Käufer geben.
Charttechnisch ist jetzt das Eröffnungs - GAP in Kanada und ebenso in Schweden geschlossen worden. Das ist erstmal eine gute Situation.
Momentan beginnt der MA 50 zu steigen und der MA200 seit längerem zu fallen. Wenn nun die MA50 die MA 200 von unten nach oben durchbricht, dann haben wir ein extremes Kaufsignal und der Kurs wird nach oben gehen. Wird aber noch dauern.
Bis dahin ist der Kurs m.E in einem Range gefangen.
Niki

[gimo211]

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Tullow-strikes-new-oil-de…

Tullow strikes new oil deposits in Turkana


Oil drilling at Ngamia 1 in Turkana County in April 2012. Tullow says it has struck oil in Etuko-1 following drilling that started in May.


By George Omondi

Posted Wednesday, July 3 2013 at 21:16

IN SUMMARY

Tullow said it had returned a 60 per cent overall success rate for its Kenya programme in the first six months of 2013, which included the drilling of nine exploration wells and appraising 11 others.


Kenya’s profile as a potential petroleum producer Wednesday rose a rung higher after British oil explorer, Tullow Plc, announced that it had discovered additional deposits in the Lake Turkana basin.

Tullow said it had returned a 60 per cent overall success rate for its Kenya programme in the first six months of 2013, which included the drilling of nine exploration wells and appraising 11 others.

“Exploration and appraisal across Tullow’s operated acreage in Kenya continues to be very successful,” the company said in its trading and operations update.

The highlight of the company’s activities in Kenya for the six months to June 30 was the discovery of fresh oil deposits with a net pay of more than 40 metres in Etuko-1, some 14 kilometres east of Twiga South-1 in the Lokichar basin.


New oil tests boost chances of striking commercial deposits


Tullow’s partner, Africa Oil, had earlier described Etuko site as one of their most attractive prospects in Kenya, estimating its reserve at 231 million barrels per day.

The company had started its drilling on the block in May 2013, making it the first test in the basin located in South Lockichar, Turkana County.


Africa Oil eyes viable finds in Kenya


Wednesday, the British multinational remained positive of prospects in Kenya as it outlined its second half-of-the-year programme which has lined up some 20 exploration sites locally, in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Mauritania, French Guiana and Norway.

“Following recent successes a third rig and a dedicated testing unit have been contracted to support increased exploration and appraisal in Kenya by year-end,” the firm said in a statement.

Tullow’s executives said they had significantly increased their estimate of the resources from both fields after successful flow-testing of Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1, adjusting potential to over 250 million barrels of oil but warned that this could increase after appraisal.

Early last year, Tullow stirred the local market with the announcement of an oil find in Turkana’s Ngamia-1 exploration block.


Potential


The discovery of 200 metres of oil net pay reignited interest in Kenya’s oil and gas exploration fields especially after US-headquartered Apache Corporation followed suit late last year with announcement of discovery of natural gas pay at Mbawa 1 offshore exploration well.

Apart from the approximately 52 net metres (170 feet) of natural gas pay that the US Corporation encountered in three zones, it said the presence of hydrocarbons in its wells pointed to the areas’ oil potential.
Tullow strikes natural gas deposits in the north

The government has since altered its preferred path to the middle income status by adding mining and petroleum as the seventh pillar of the country’s long-term development blueprint, Vision 2030.


Tullow’s Sh600m tax to Treasury signals oil windfall


The county’s economic planners estimate that it will take two years for explorers such as Tullow to confirm whether the country has e commercial quantity of oil and another five years before production commences.

“We should use this time to build infrastructure and the human capital required for commercial exploitation of oil,” says Vision 2030 director-general Mugo Kibati.

Wednesday, Tullow announced that its flow testing programme at Ngamia-1 in the Lokichar Basin had been successfully completed and found to have a flow rate totalling 3,200 barrels per day (bpd).

The oil is of 25 to 35 degree American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity, sweet waxy and shows no indication of pressure depletion.

“The analysis of the test data from both the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 wells has resulted in the doubling of our previous estimates of net oil pay to 200 metres and 75 metres respectively,” the company said in its update.

It said the oil discovered so far also had an enhanced flow rate potential of around 5,000 bpd per well and significantly increased discovered volumes.

Ekales-1, the next exploration well lined up in the Basin Bounding Fault Play on trend with Ngamia and Twiga-South, will commence drilling in late July 2013.

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.980.145 von gimo211 am 04.07.13 09:45:04

"Tullow’s partner, Africa Oil, had earlier described Etuko site as one of their most attractive prospects in Kenya, estimating its reserve at 231 million barrels per day."

Weiß der Kommentator, was er schreibt?

[motz1]

@Staberhuk: Es ist ihm wohl nicht so gaaaanz klar wovon er berichtet, die Anzahl der Bohrungen bezieht sich auch auch auf die unternehmensweiten noch ausstehenden wells...

............

Warnado1 auf iii hingegen dürfte klar sein von was er spricht wenn er Kenya/Ethiopia mit "middle eastern giant oil fields which rund into BILLIONS of barrels" vergleicht :


Remember this?


Thursday May 10, 2012 and Monday May 28, 2012

A Bay Street brokerage recently published a bullish report on AOI, noting that the recent results far exceed pre-drill expectations. The report also notes that the scale of success at Ngamia-1 could indicate that the Lokichar sub-basin alone could contain 1 billion barrels of gross recoverable resource. The analyst also commented that the “pre-drill P50 recoverable resource estimate of 45 million barrels was predicated on some 17 m of net oil pay thus, all else being equal, a simple volumetric estimate would suggest that Ngamia could contain over 250 million barrels of recoverable resources within the existing horizons alone, let alone any potential prospectivity within the deeper, primary objective”

https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnotev…

https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnotev…

On the 26th May 2012 I made a detailed post titled "Volumetric Estimate Exercise" which I have provided the link for below -

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AAOIFF&dis…

Now, lets press fast forward to over a year from those comments and post to current day.

After the latest update, from Tullow, what we now know is that -

1, Analysis of the test data from Ngamia-1 has resulted in doubling previous estimate of net oil pay to 200mtrs (the AOI news release states OVER 200mtrs) and an optimised flow rate potential of around 5,000 bopd and significantly increased discovered volume.

2, Analysis of the test data from Twiga South-1 has resulted in doubling previous estimates of net oil pay 75mtrs (the AOI news release states OVER 75mtrs) and an optimised flow rate potential of around 5,000 bopd and significantly increased discovered volume.

3, The combined mean associated resources for Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 is now estimated to be over 250 mmbo with the potential to increase further following appraisal.

4, The Etuko well has shown that from results from drilling, wireline logs and samples of
reservoir fluid confirm a new oil discovery with net pay of OVER 40 metres in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets. The well is now drilling the Lower Lokhone sands and results from this lower section are expected by the end of July which COULD increase the net pay further.

As I have always stated, I seriously think Tullow, and AOI to a lesser degree (given the wide mouth of KH), are being very conservative about the current volumes and the enormity of what could discovered in Kenya and Ethopia (although much less is known in this region yet).

Lets go back to the start of this post using the "“pre-drill P50 recoverable resource estimate of 45 million barrels was predicated on some 17 m of net oil pay" and compare it to current day facts.

1, Ngamia-1, at least 200mtrs NET pay therefore 200mtrs / 17mtrs = 11.76 * 45MMBO = 529.2MMBO.

2, Twiga South-1, at least 75mtrs NET pay therefore 75mtrs / 17mtrs = 4.41 * 198.4MMBO.

3, Etuko-1, at least 40mtrs NEY pay SO FAR therefore 40mtrs / 17mtrs = 2.64 * 45MMBO = 118MMBO.

For these 3 discoveries alone the numbers above stand at 845.6MMBO which is much admired in the oil industry.

Given the fact that there is well over 100 prospects and leads to be drilled I personally think we are eventually looking at a project which is comparable to middle eastern giant oil fields which run into BILLIONS of barrels.

I would even go as far to say that the current numbers on the reserves/resources page as detailed on the AOI website are not as unbelievable as they appear given the fact that only 3 wells have been drilled on block 10BB and 13T and these blocks are not even the biggest resource wise. We still have the "monsters" to drill on blocks 10BA and 12A and that's just Kenya alone EXCLUDING Ethopia's South Omo and our newly acquired Rift Basin Area which is huge, very prospective and we have a very capable partner in this with Marathon for 50% (although Marathon have yet to advertise the fact).

We are onto something big, very big indeed but all in my humble opinion of course.

[abionaut]

Ein bisschen was zum Marktverständnis im Kontext zu AOI von redinvest auf dem iii-Board:

Hi Farrell90,

In part it was the holiday, which is a little disappointing, share price wise. If this info had come out on a oMonday, it would run higher all week.
Actually, investors have got to understand the bigger picture, and how it portrays to the daily gyrations of the share price. They
need to understand that the main market that dominates the share price I's the OMX exchange in Sweden, where it,s normal to see one million shares traded daily. the Canadian TSE exchange falls into second position, and the Nasdaq AOIFF comes in third.

We need to follow the OMX if we want to judge the share price movements. If the share price goes north in Sweden, arbitrage will kick in , and the Ca and USA market will move to equal the OMX.

Besides, US investors have got to understand that we are better off in this situation. IMO the US market is easily manipulated while we are on the particular Nasdaq exchange where we reside on now. That will change eventually as AOIFF continues to grow. We will probably grow into the main Nasdaq market before we climb to the NYSE, which we will, in time,
do if we are not bought out beforehand.

Just guessing, but I believe there's a few shorters that automatically short hard on any good new on the US market. They do this to protect their short position, and to keep from getting a margin call. I also believe that a lot of the USA AOIFF investors could not buy yesterday, even if they wanted to. That's because they don't have a margin account, like I do, and they would have to wait three business days for any money into their account, from selling some other company's shares, in order to buy AOIFF.

Sorry if this sounds a little complicated, but it is what it is. Generally, I was pleased that we went up .15 yesterday with AOIFF.

My advice is to forget the day to day gyrations of the share price. That' s the small picture. The big picture is that the company has come up aces on several fronts. Our goal to prove up one billion barrels in the Lokichar is within our sight. We are getting there. I'm glad that KH is emphasizing this goal, and if you read one of my previous posts on this matter, you would recall that one billion barrels in the Lokichar would equate to a share price equal to 60 dollars a share on a RISKED basis.

AOIFF is an incredible oil explorer. Our upside is completely massive. I think we have 10 billion barrels in theLokichar, maybe even a lot more than that. We have wonderful and very experienced management.


We have at least two very good and world class partners, Tullow and Marathon. We haven huge percentages in most our blocks. Being q the first explorer to tackle onshore Kenya, before others, meaning we took the biggest risk, we have the most favorable and unchanging PSC terms with Kenyan gov.


In conclusion, everything is good, VERY good. If you need the follow the smaller daily picture, my advice to you is to understand the bigger picture.

Best,

Red

[magicvox]

Compagnymaker ...."kein Stück aus der Hand geben"! Sehe ich zwar auch so und habe auch gestern nochmal nachgelegt aber der Kurs
verhält sich wirklich kontraproduktiv....! Es müsste doch langsam was in die Gänge kommen mit diesem m.E. wirklich exelenten Wert wobei man zu diesen Kursen vielleicht nur noch letztmalig die Chance bekommt! Was meint Ihr?
Würd mich mal interessieren

[gimo211]

Zitat von magicvox: Compagnymaker ...."kein Stück aus der Hand geben"!

... Ich kann mich nicht erinnern, dass hier irgendjemand solches Trivial-Vokabular aus der Hot-Stock-Szene in den letzten Monaten verwendet hat...

Mit AOC ist es ganz einfach: es gibt Leute, die begreifen um was es hier geht und es gibt Leute, die das nicht begreifen - That's it und mehr ist da zu auch nicht zu sagen...

[niki550525]

Die Welt ist verrückt.Die Börse ist mit Ereignissen aus der Vergangenheit nicht mehr vergleichbar und speziell hier auch die Rohstoffwerte.
Super Zahlen und super Ausblick und keiner will die Aktie haben.
Charttechnisch, soweit man das damit noch einigermaßen abschätzen kann, ist das Bild eher katastrophal. Mit dem heutigen der MA (50) Linie ist zawr das GAP vom 28.06.2013 nun Entgültig geschlossen., jedoch gibt es hier erst wieder eine Unterstützungslinie im Bereich von 6,30 CAN$.
Alle Indikatoren sind im negativen Bereich und werden dies auch noch einige Tage so sein, bis ein Boden gefunden wurde.
Angst oder Sorgen habe ich bei diesem Unternehmen nicht. Allerdings sind die Welteinstellungen/-manipulationen im Bezug auf Rohstoffe nicht absehbar.Von daher läßt sich die Abwärtsbewegung einfach nicht abschätzen.
Es kommt auch irgendwann mal anders, die Frage ist nur wann......
Meist ist es so: Wenn man denkt es geht nicht mehr kommt von irgendwo ein lichtlein daher. Wollen wir mal hoffen, das das auch hier so zutrifft.
Sollten wir, was ich nicht glauben will, bis auf 5,50 CAN$ abkacken, werde ich meine ganzen Ersparnisse zusammenscheffeln und hier nochmal zukaufen.
Mal sehen was da noch so kommt. Und....normal ist das nicht !
Trotzdem ergibt sich für viele hier eine einmalige Chance.
Wer sie nicht nützt ist selber schuld
imho Niki

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.004.491 von niki550525 am 08.07.13 19:00:13

zuerst müssen die banken, die geldgeber, reinen tisch machen und dann geht auch im rohstoffbereich wieder was, aber dann mit dynamit!

[motz1]

Sophia hat eine Juli-Version der Unternehmenspräsentation online gestellt. U.a. sind die Slides in Bezug auf Ngamia und Etuko überarbeitet:

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-07_AOIP.pdf

[nicolani]

irgendwie merkwürdig, tullow und marathon laufen in die andere richtung, dann wird's doch wohl hier auch bald drehen, aber bitte mit sahne!

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.026.901 von nicolani am 11.07.13 15:41:23

Logisch wäre das schon, aber logischer Weise müsste der Kurs ca. 50% höher stehen. Eigentlich müsste zumindest die Lundigruppe mal wieder kräftig zuschlagen um ein Zeichen zu setzten
Zumindest bekämen sie jetzt dei Aktien günstiger als bei der Kapitalerhöhung. Jeder "Normalbürger" würde jetzt nachkaufen um billig an Aktien zu kommen.
Soviel zur Logik in diesen Zeiten.
Ich kann mich noch gut erinnern wie damals bei der Kapitalerhöhung die Banken leer ausgegangen sind. Lundi Group hat Ihnen gezeigt, dass Sie auf die Banken nicht angewiesen sind.
Denke nun zeigen es Ihnen die Banken, was für eine Macht sie haben und prügeln den Kurs nach unten bis Sie den Zielkurs erreicht haben.
Bis zur nächsten (hoffentlich) guten Meldung ist noch eine Zeit hin. Da kann der Kurs noch gut gedrückt werden.M.E. will man mit aller Gewalt den Lundis einen Denkzettel verpassen.
Fakten und wenn sie noch so gut sind zählen hier nicht. Das momentan bei Rohstoffwerten ein Käuferstreik herrscht macht die Sache einfacher.Kurserholungen werden verwendet um die Stücke zu verkaufen.
Niki

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.027.315 von niki550525 am 11.07.13 16:16:27

eine vertretbare hypothese!

[motz1]

Meine persönliche Lösung für das Problem lautet: abwarten .


Der Markt bewertet AOI in meinen Augen derzeit schlichtweg falsch. Erstmal müssen sich die Shortis mit ihren rund 600Tsd Stücken in Kanada überlegen was sie tun.
Mit dem neuen Resources Report bekommen wir noch in Q3 die ersten nennenswerten Reserven eingebucht.
Noch im Juli soll Bahasi (AOI/Marathon, Block 9) starten. Im August soll Etuko abgeschlossen werden, Tultule und Ekales sollen begonnen werden.


Ngamia-Ergebnisse (heutige Präsentation, S.7):

Interessant finde ich die Unterschiede bei der Permeabilität im Vergleich zu Twiga: Die Ngamia-Werte liegen bei 50-400md, die von Twiga bei bis zu 100-3000md. Zudem standen für die Ngamia-Test bereits ESPs zur Verfügung und kamen auch bei gewissen Zonen zum Einsatz, Twiga wurde noch komplett mit PCPs getestet.


Etuko wird imho völlig vom Markt ignoriert. Die Bohrung hat große Bedeutung! Bisher wurden schon 40m net pay nachgewiesen, und es wird noch gebohrt. Es gibt berechtigte Hoffnung in tieferen Schichten weitere Zonen zu finden. Wenn Tullow aus einer laufenden Bohrung heraus 40m net pay meldet, so wurden diese Zahlen bei Ngamia und Twiga im Nachhinein verdoppelt... Samples wurden bereits zur Oberfläche geholt. Die Ausmaße sind atemberaubend: 70qkm! Best unrisked 231MMbbl... Abzuwarten bleibt der flow test, alles andere sieht imho sehr positiv aus.
Bildliche Darstellung aus der Full Year Presentation von Tullow zu den Follow ups die durch Etuko nun aktuell (und bereits derisked!) werden:




Nicht zu vergessen das noch ausstehende PaiPai-Testing.


Es gibt immer weniger Gründe sich um AOI Sorgen zu machen. Die Entwicklungen des vergangenen halben Jahres lassen sich am Kurs definitiv nicht ablesen.
Das nachgewiesene Öl ist qualitativ hochwertig und rein, nachweislich ökonomisch förderbar und mit dem Pipeline-Anschluss hoffentlich auch in naher Zukunft an brauchbare Infrastruktur angeschlossen.

Laut hier bereits diskutierten Aussagen von KH hat das JV bereits einen Partner der bereit ist diese Explorationsphase im Lokichar Basin abzuwarten.
Das JV verfolgt ein klares Konzept: Exploitation des Lokichar Basins (verhältnismäßig geringes Risiko), Exploration in neuen Basins (höheres Risiko) - Ambidexterity.

Mit jedem Meter net pay der neu hinzu kommt steigt der Preis für den potentiellen Käufer - I like it ...


Wie immer: Just my two pence, DYOR.

[motz1]

Greywolf beschreibt es so:


9/7 GMT 03.52 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - AOI:SAX
Risky business selling this stock given what is coming up... Very low trade volumes post last weeks report should give some form of a Heads Up....


8/7 GMT 00.41 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - AOI:SAX - East African Oil
A large piece of the Puzzel that is East African Oil was laid by Africa Oil last week, as to the market reaction - "Who cares".. This site has invested in this company on and off since 1984 when it was called "Canmex Minerals" and I´ve seen this, that and and pretty much everything along the way. Now however the Company is only just beginning to highlight something that really is no great secret ie that East Africa along the Great Rift Valley is the next region for Major Oil Discoveries.

www.greywolf.se

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.027.315 von niki550525 am 11.07.13 16:16:27

Volle Zustimmung!

[schwochner]

Ich glaube, dass es den Lundins ziemlich egal ist, wo der Kurs gerade notiert. Sie haben ihre Investments getätigt und warten. Ich meine gelesen zu haben, dass sie beim 232 Mio.$ Placement 1/3 gezeichnet haben. Wenn das stimmt, waren das 10 Millionen Aktien.
Heute haben wir einen Umsatz von 85.000 Aktien in Kanada - das was die Lundins bei der KE gezeichnet haben, ist also der 118-fache heutige Tagesumsatz. Selbst wenn in Schweden mehr los ist als in Kanada, wäre es unmöglich soviele Aktien über den Markt zu kaufen. Ich weiß nicht, wieviel sie jetzt genau an AOI halten, aber sie können auch nicht unbegrenzt kaufen, weil z.B. ab der Schwelle von 20 Prozent ein Pflichtangebot an die übrigen Aktionäre fällig wäre.
Die TSX Venture ist völlig tot, ohne Liquidität auch keine fairen Kurse und Bewertungen. Man sollte den Tageshandel nicht so ernst nehmen. Großanleger wie Fonds haben Energieaktien untergewichtet wie seit Jahren nicht mehr. Wenn die wieder anfangen, Positionen aufzubauen, haben wir vielleicht wieder einen normalen Handel, aber ich denke im Sommer bleibt es ruhig. Diejenigen mit Kohle sind auf ihren Yachten unterwegs und lassen es sich (ohne Börse) gut gehen.

[nicolani]

ja heute könnte aoi gedreht haben!

[nicolani]

dann sollten wir heute mal an die 7 cad heranlaufen!

[nicolani]

ist schon auffällig wie hier in europa immer wieder der kurs gegen handelsende gedrückt wird, hoffentlich sind diese jungs nicht short!

[nicolani]

in canada sieht's besser aus, die kaufen fleissig, vielleicht nehmen wir dann heute die7 cad!

[nicolani]

na geht doch, so langsam tut sich was!

[nicolani]

aber hallo! die perle an der hutschnur!!

[nicolani]

today is great day for aoi! we've catchted the 7! seven hold!

[nicolani]

und die holzfäller kaufen das ding hoch! great! und morgen müssen die shorties an der omx eindecken, soviel spass selten erlebt! woww!!

[nicolani]

sie haben uns durchschaut! prism over all! from now on never short naked selling! be careful!!

[nicolani]

aoi beiss dich fest bei 7,20 cad!!!

[nicolani]

hüben wie drüben kein volumen! sommerloch! urlaub! hitze! und keiner schreibt mehr!

[gabbo62]

Dundee on AOI
Funded, High Impact Exploration
Africa Oil (AOI CN) - C$14.00 Target, BUY

The commerciality of the Lokichar basin appears increasingly likely, underpinned by recent
analysis of well testing and log data from Ngamia and Twiga South - thicker net pay coupled
with greater permeability within the upper sands contribute to a revised gross mean
unrisked estimate of 250 mmbbls for these two discoveries.
Note that this estimate excludes the western fault block at Ngamia, currently attributed 137
mmbbls on a gross, unrisked best-case basis.
Furthermore, the conspicuous success at Ngamia and Twiga has clearly derisked the Lokichar
basin, and in particular other prospects that abut the basin bounding fault, such as Ekales – a
64 mmbbls (best case, unrisked) prospect due to spud in August.
Both Tullow Oil (TLW LN, not covered) and Africa Oil now both refer to ‘advancing towards
the commercial threshold for development’. Indeed, Africa Oil has assembled a technical
team to commence planning for an early development scheme and large-scale pipeline.
On the eastern flank of the Lokichar basin, the ongoing Etuko-1 exploration well
encountered 40 metres of net pay within the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone sands; results
from the main objective - the Lower Lokhone sands, assigned 231 mmbbls (gross, best-case,
unrisked) on the basis of 50 metres of net pay - are expected by end-July.
Elsewhere, Africa Oil's fully-funded 2013 exploration drilling program continues to offer
significant near-term upside potential: whilst the recently drilled Sabisa-1 frontier
exploration well on Ethiopia’s South Omo block is not a discovery itself, it has demonstrated
that the key components for future exploration success are in place – an oil-prone source
rock, reservoir-quality sands and a thick shale section.
Tultule, a nearby prospect, offers a horst-block structural trap – thus potentially completing
the ‘jigsaw’ required for a successful discovery. Tultule-1 is expected to spud in late 3Q13.
With four active 2D seismic crews and a 3D seismic crew being mobilised to the Lokichar
basin, three rigs in operation and three further rigs about to mobilise, Africa Oil's forward
exploration campaign should deliver newsflow on a near-monthly basis.
Our overall ‘base case’ risked NAV stands at C$13.95/share – which equates to 500 mmbbls
of net recoverable oil, or a 5.3% chance of success across the company's entire unrisked
resource base (excluding Somalia).
We remain BUY rated with a C$14.00/share target, the latter based on 1X our 'base case'
risked NAV.
Key Upcoming Catalysts:
Etuko-1 Well, Block 10 BB: reach TD late July
Ekales, Block 13T: spud late July
Tultule exploration well, South Omo Block: spud late 3Q13
Updated CPR: 3Q13

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/incoming/article13237638.ece/…

[posted by 'goldiehawn' on the I.V. Aoi thread]

[Staberhuk]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.073.605 von gabbo62 am 18.07.13 19:47:18

Moin @gabbo62.
Wunderschön dieser fachliche Beitrag.

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.073.605 von gabbo62 am 18.07.13 19:47:18

erklärt auch den stetigen anstieg von tlw und mro! und aoi ist auch dabei zu punkten!

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.073.605 von gabbo62 am 18.07.13 19:47:18

In der Tat ein gut recherchierter Analystenkommentar.

User Oily10 merkt auf Stockhouse trefflich an:

"Interesting to note this report is the only one who manages to distinguish the Ngamia-1 location and propective resources in Ngamia West.. >250mmboe does not include the Ngamia West resources which currently stands at 137mmboe based on net pay of 50m only. If Ngamia-1 net pay is now 200m, this means that the net pay of Ngamia West should logically increase too.. the 137 mmboe will be revised upwards once the Ngamia appraisal well is succesful.. imho"



"Commercial" sind wir dann, wenn Tullow es sagt. Wer es sehen will, der kann es aber auch jetzt schon sehen...
Just my two pence - mal sehen was uns Etuko noch so bringt .

[niki550525]

So nun melde ich mich von meinem Urlaub auch wieder zurück.
Charttechnisch ist AOI nun auch wieder besser zu beurteilen. Hoffe das bleibt nun auch so, obwohl die Umsätze nicht dafür sprechen. Magere 37 k gestern. Dh. der Kurs läßt sich stark in die Ein oder andere Richtung manipulieren.
Momentan geht es wenigstens zur Abwechslung nach oben
Charttechnisch sieht es so aus:
RSI bei 57 (Positiv)
SAR bei 71,02 zu 50,01 (Positiv)
MACD -0,038 zu -0,059 (Positic)
SAR Positiv
Kurs über der MA(50) Positiv
Kleiner Wehrmutstropfen ist ein offenes GAP bei 7,00 bis 7,09 CAN$

Voraussage: MA(50) ist bei 7,09 CAN$ und bewegt sich kontinuierlich nach oben. Wird die MA(200) dezeit bei 7,68 CAN$ (leicht fallend)von unten nach oben durchbrochen, wird ein starkes Kaufsignal erzeugt.

Am 14.02 hatten wir das gegenteilige Signal. da gab es dann einne Kursrückgang bis 5,50 CAN$ ausgehend von 8,50 CAN$.

Na dann freu ich mich ja schon heute, dass wir dieses Jahr die 10 CAN$ von oben betrachten dürfen. Sind dann locker gem. chrttechnik 50% drin. Wenn die Ergebnisse passen dann werden es um X mehr sein :-)
Niki

[magicvox]

Brokerhaus Dundee Capital Markets hat Africa Oil an erster Stelle seiner Empfehlungen mit der Empfehlung und zwar Kaufen mit Ziel 14.00 CAD!
Dabei sind nur im jetztigen Kurs bei ca. CAD 7 - 7,40 das Lokichar Basin berücksichtigt. Alles was jetzt noch an Ergebnissen aus den ausstehenden Wells kommt demnach noch in die Bewertung einfliessen - da ist ja dann auch Kursmässig noch was drin!Ich finde A.O. ist ein super Wert mit wirklich hervorragenden Perspektiven ...auch finde ich gut,dass die Lundins mit dabei sind. Die machen nichts, wo sie die Gefahr sehen, das Geld versenkt werden soll!Darüber hinaus ist A.O. gut finanziert!

[magicvox]

sollte im übrigen keine Kaufempfehlung sein - jeder macht was er selbst für richtig hält! siehe meine ersten Ausführungen!

[nicolani]

tlw muss die katze aus dem sack lassen, aoi darf es nicht, mro weiss bescheid!

[motz1]

Berichterstattung zu East Africa in der Tullow erwähnt wird - danke an Houndtrader/stockhouse:

.............

[...]
This month has also seen much more positive news come out of east Africa. Tullow Oil

(TLW), a world leader in frontier oil exploration, announced that its Etuko-1 exploration well in Kenya had found 40 metres of net oil pay across two reservoir zones. The well comes hard on the heels of two other successful frontier wells drilled by Tullow in Kenya's South Lockichar basin (Nagamia-1 and Twiga South-1).

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Ethiopia, Tullow's frontier Sabisa-1 well enjoyed more muted success. The well suffered from hole instability but had encountered oil, heavy gas and reservoir-quality sands before being plugged and abandoned.
[...]

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/07/18/shares/news-a…

[motz1]

Noch ein paar Beiträge aus den letzten Tagen - bigger picture...

..............

Shifting geopolitics of East Africa’s nascent energy boom

June 27, 2013 by Paul Maidment in Africa, Asia-Pacific.

One side benefit of East Africa’s nascent oil and gas boom is that it opens the prospect for South Sudan to break its dependence on Sudan for exporting its oil, which accounts for more than 90% of government revenue — and with it change China’s role in the region.

To exploit its newfound if scarcely developed energy resources — oil in the Rift Valley, massive natural gas fields in Tanzania and Mozambique — East Africa needs to build the pipelines, railways, roads and refineries to get the oil and gas to its ports. From there, it will be shipped to the energy-hungry Asian countries on the other side of the Indian Ocean.
[...]
http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatbusiness/2013/06/27/sh…




Private sector is key to boosting intra-African trade

July 12, 2013 by Alex Erquicia in Africa.

Africa’s much-admired economic development needs more intra-continental trade to boost it further, according to the 2013 Economic Development in Africa report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). At present, the opposite is happening.
[...]
http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatbusiness/2013/07/12/pr…



World Bank expresses willingness to support Kenya’s petroleum sector

Posted by: Apa Posted date : July 11, 2013 at 3:29 pm 62 views In: Africa

The World Bank on Thursday said it is willing to provide technical support to Kenya’s emerging petroleum sector, using the expertise and experience it has gained over the years in the many oil and gas producing countries the Bank works in.
The World Bank Country Director, Diariétou Gaye said they have made a commitment under the Country Partnership Strategy for Kenya, which sets out the development priorities agreed between the government of Kenya and the World Bank Group, to make a catalytic contribution to Kenya’s continuing transformation to a middle income country.
[...]
http://en.starafrica.com/news/world-bank-expresses-willingne…



Uganda Wants Chinese-Built Infrastructure Paid for With Oil

By Sarah McGregor & Fred Ojambo - Jul 9, 2013

Uganda will offer most of its infrastructure projects to Chinese companies because they can be repaid from future oil revenue, unlike Western businesses that expect advance payment, the Prime Minister’s office said.

Uganda, classified as one of the world’s poorest countries by the World Bank, is on the verge of an oil boom after the discovery of crude in 2006. The government is seeking investment in improving electricity generation and transportation networks to drive economic growth intended to propel the country to middle-income status by as early as 2016.
[...]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/uganda-wants-chines…



Genel, Afren, Soco and Africa Oil are Citi's top explorers

By Ian Lyall July 19 2013, 12:09pm

East Africa and Kurdistan have tickled the fancy of the oil team at Citi, which explains why Genel (LON:GENL) and Africa Oil (LON:AOI) are among its top picks.
[...]
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/59199/gen…

[nicolani]

jeden tag das gleiche spiel omx vs tsx, ein sehr gutes zeichen, tlw und mro im plus!

[niki550525]

So nun mal wieder was von der charttechnischen Front....
Heute wurde die MA50 Linie verteidigt, nachdem wir kurz drunter gefallen sind, hat der Kurs oberhalb geschlossen. Das bedeutet, das im späten Handel die Käufer aus dem ASK gekauft haben.
Nach wie vor besteht noch immer das kleine GAP von 7,07 bis auf 7,01 CAN$. Da der Slow STO im steilen Winkel auf die rote Linie zugeht, gehe ich mal davon aus, dass wir die MA50 nicht halten werden und das GAP in den nächsten Tagen geschlossen wird.
RSI bewegt sich bei 52,36 % und ein abkippen ist daher nicht ungewöhnlich, da wir uns seit Tagen nicht von den 50% lösen können.
Wie schon geschrieben liegt viel an dem geringen Umsatz, der hier eine Voraussage schwer macht. Heute auch nur mal 81,9K in Canada.
Trotz einem wesentlich höheren Umsatz an der schwedischen Börse, sehe ich den canadischen Chart als den übergeordneten.Auch hier heute nur 146 K. Beide überschneiden sich, wobei der Canadische letztendlich die Richtung für den nächsten Tag vorgibt.
Momentan herrscht kein starkes Interesse an AOI und somit sind bewust gestellte Kurse für Kurzfristtrader vorgegeben.
Starke Kursveränderungen werden sich erst wieder einstellen, wenn die Fonds wieder zukaufen.Afrika ist eben keine stabile Region und somit ist die Investition in diesen Wert eben mit einem hohen Risiko verbunden. Das hat erst in zweiter Linie mit den vorhandenen Resourcen zu tun. Derzeit verdienen die Fonds mit weniger Risiko an den großen Weltmärkten. Warum also sollten sie sich auf ein wesentlich höheres Risiko einlassen.
Rohstoffwerte fangen in der Regel erst nach August zum laufen an. Solange denke ich werden wir auch wenig Umsatz haben und somit ein Spielball der Kurzfrist Trader sein.
Also brauchen wir noch ein wenig Sitzfleisch bis wir uns in höhere Regionen wiederfinden. Erst wenn AOI teurer wird will sie jeder haben....
Niki

[motz1]

SEB in Schweden hat die Kaufempfehlung beibehalten und das Kursziel erhöht:

----------------------------

AFRICA OIL RICH SEB RAISES THE COURSE OF 66 KR (61), REPEAT BUY (Bloomberg) Print
2013-07-23 09:31


STOCKHOLM (AFX) SEB Equities raises target price for Africa Oil to 66 Billion [Anm.: es handelt sich um schwedische Kronen, Übersetzungsfehler], from previous 61 crowns. The recommendation purchase remains.

It is clear from the analysis.


Publicly Editor [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N2001…

[nicolani]

omx hat heute gegen handelsschluss mal nicht gedrückt, gutes zeichen!

[gimo211]

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

JUL 24, 2013 - 17:00 ET
Africa Oil Spuds Ekales-1 Well in Kenya

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 24, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the commencement of drilling operations on its Ekales prospect located in Block 13T in the Lokichar Basin in Kenya. The well was spud on July 22, 2013 and has a planned total depth of 2500 metres and is expected to approximately 2 months to drill and evaluate. The primary objectives are the Auwerwer and Lower Lokhone sandstones already established to be highly productive reservoirs at the nearby Ngamia and Twiga discoveries. The prospect is a three way fault closure against the main basin bounding fault and is located directly between, and approximately 15 km northwest of the Ngamia discovery and 7 km south of the Twiga discoveryalong the "string of pearls" trend. The well is being drilled by the Weatherford #804 rig. The Company holds a 50% working interest in this prospect along with operator Tullow Oil Plc.

Please see attached map, visit the following link:
http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/130724AOIBasinsMap.pdf

Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "The Ekales prospect is probably one of the lowest risk prospects in our inventory. The proximity and similarity to the existing Ngamia and Twiga discoveries give us a high degree of confidence that we will find oil and continue to build the discovered resources necessary for commercial volume threshold. Our pace of exploration and appraisal continues to accelerate with the anticipated arrival of three additional rigs in Kenya and Ethiopia in the next 60 days for a total of six rigs, four of which will be operated by Tullow Oil." The recently announced Etuko discovery, on the flank of the Lokichar basis has opened a new play fairway and provided further confirmation of the world class potential of the Lokichar Basin."

In the South Omo block in Ethiopia, mobilization of the OGEC 75 rig to the Tultule location is underway. This prospect is located 4 kilometres from the Sabisa-1 well which was recently abandoned after proving the existence of the essential hydrocarbon elements of source, seal and reservoir in this frontier basin. It is being drilled on a well-defined horst block feature which should provide good trapping characteristics. The Company holds a 30% working interest in this prospect along with operator Tullow Oil Plc (50%) and Marathon Oil (20%).

The Etuko well in Block 10BB, where an oil discovery was recently announced in shallower reservoirs, has now reached a total depth 3100 metres and log and MDT evaluation have commenced. The rigs for the Ogaden Basin (Block 7&8) El Kuran-3 prospect in Ethiopia (Africa Oil non-operated working interest: 30%) and the Block 9 Bahasi prospect in Kenya (Africa Oil operated working interest: 50%) are in country and spud of El Kuran-3 is expected in August and Bahasi-1 in September. One additional lightweight rig has been contracted for testing and drilling operations in the Lokichar Basin and should also be operational in September.

[gimo211]

Bei solchen "After the close" announcements frage ich mich immer, ob der Effekt für den SP nicht "verpuffen" könnte... Mal sehen, was Stockholm heute daraus macht...

Offenbar haben sie auch in den tiefen Zonen bei Etuko etwas gefunden, dass es Wert ist mit dem MDT-Tool zur Oberfläche gebracht zu werden... Das ist in meinen Augen der interessanteste Hinweis in dieser News...

[motz1]

Moin moin

Liest sich doch ganz ordentlich.

1. Ekales
Die CoS laut Nomura lag Ende April bei 39%. Durch die Location zwischen Ngamia und Twiga dürten die Hoffnungen berechtigter weise sehr groß sein - but you never know.
In wie fern die Zeitplanung (2 Monate für 2500m, also Fertigstellung mit Logging und Sampling bis Ende September) hinkommt werden wir sehen, Lerneffekte von Ngamia und Twiga sollten allerdings bemerkbar werden.

2. Sabisa/Tultule
Erstmals fällt offiziell das Wort "abandoned" - ich hoffe, dass Tultule zu den bei Sabisa vorgefundenen Eigenschaften auch noch einen intakten Trapping Mechanismus aufweist.

3. Etuko
TD bei 3100m, Logging and Sampling läuft - 40m+X net pay. Wobei ich mir schon jetzt sicher bin, dass die bereits genannten 40m in den oberen Schichten von Tullow noch nach oben korrigiert werden.

4. El Kuran, Block 7/8 in Äthiopien
Rig im Land, Spud voraussichtlich im August.

5. Bahasi, Block 9
Rig im Land, Spud voraussichtlich im September.

6. Zusätzliches Rig für Wells mit geringerer TD und für Testings wird ebenso im September einsatzfähig sein. Ob sie damit PaiPai testen können/werden?


Viele gute Zwischeninfos - langsam nehmen wir Fahrt auf. Ich bin auf Etuko gespannt. Tullow hat am 31.07. seine Konferenz zu den Half-yearly Results. Vielleicht bekommen wir dann schon die Logging/Sampling Ergebnisse zu Etuko...

[motz1]

Davy Research stuft Tullow auf "outperform" - Kenya und Ethiopia als Hauptgründe werden als mögliche "world-class projects" und "key attraction of the stock" bezeichnet...



....................


Kenya well spuds

DAVY VIEW
Africa Oil, Tullow’s partner in Kenya and Ethiopia, has announced that an exploration well on the Ekales prospect in Kenya has spudded. We believe Tullow’s exploration campaign in the East African countries is one of the key attractions of the stock. Further success in Kenya and Ethiopia should result in the addition of another world-class project to its portfolio. It will also demonstrate management’s reinvestment and repeatability skills.

Ekales considered relatively low-risk
The Ekales prospect is situated between the Ngamia and Twiga-South discoveries on Block 13T in the Lokichar basin and is a similar basin-bounding fault play. Results from the exploration well are expected in two months.

We value TLW’s 50% operatorship of the well at 2.9p per share on a risked-weighted basis. Success in line with our volume assumptions means that a discovery at Ekales is worth 11p per share. While of incremental value on a standalone basis, success brings Tullow and its partners closer to the commercial threshold for a development project in Kenya. Over 250 mmbbl have been discovered in the past 18 months.

Drilling of the Etuko prospect has completed and logging and evaluation has commenced. Etuko is also situated in the Lokichar basin and is a basin flank play, different to Ekales, Ngamia and Twiga South. An oil discovery in the Auwerwer reservoir at Etuko has opened up the basin flank play. Results from the Lower Lokhone reservoir have yet to be reported. Etuko currently contributes 10p to our 210p per share valuation of Tullow’s interest in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Our group risk-weighted valuation is 1359p per share or 916p per share net of Tullow’s exploration portfolio.

http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_B…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.111.425 von motz1 am 25.07.13 10:09:20

Ist ja schon ein Witz wie diese Meldung aufgenommen wird
Mit einem "sagenhaften" Umsatz in Schweden, mit 194 K und 54 K in CANADA wird die Meldung eher ignoriert, als gefeiert.Einfacher Erklärungsversuch: Alle sind schon in Urlaub
Die letzten 20 K hat der Kurs nicht mal ein Anzeichen einer Bewegung gemacht
Früher hätte alleine diese Meldung zu einem Anstieg von min. 20% geführt. Das wir eine andere Zeit haben, ist mir schon klar, aber das da gar nichts geht hätte ich nicht geglaubt.
Manchmal kann man aber auch sehen, das der Markt erst nach ein paar Tagen reagiert, da erst dann die Analysten die Nachricht deuten und auch streuen.

Am 31.07 ist Halbjahreskonferenz von Tullow. Vielleicht werden hier Ergebnisse zur Etuko - Discovery bekannt gegeben. Mit der Ankündigung bis zu 6 Bohrtürmen bis ende September in Einsatz zu bringen, rechne ich mit mehr Euphorie. Kann man nur hoffe, dass Tullow dazu eine Meldung und Ergebnisse bringen,und dies auf mehr Gehör stoßen wird.

Charttechnischer Ausblick:
MA50 derzeit bei 7,15 CAN$ bewegt sich langsam immer weiter auf MA200 bei 7,61 CAN$ zu. Wie schon geschrieben sehe ich hier einen Treibsatz bei Überschreitung der MA200.
RSI ( 56%) positiv
Slow STO 89,15 zu 83,67 = positiv
SAR positiv
MACD 0,030 zu -0,014 positiv
Umsatz seit Anfang Juli bis auf 3 Ausnahmen kaum über 100K in CANADA => negativ
2 offene GAP`s ( 7,01 -7,07) und (7,16 - 7,19) => negativ

Fazit:
Solange der Umsatz in Canada nicht anzieht werden wir uns weiter in einem Range bewegen. Denke das wird so zwischen 7,0 und 7,61 CAN$ sein.
Wollen mal hoffen, das die dussligen Urlaubsvertreter sich mal trauen hier ein zu kaufen: laugh:
Niki

[gimo211]

http://www.newsday.co.zw/2013/07/25/africa-oil-speeds-up-e-a…


Africa Oil speeds up E Africa exploration, drills new well
July 25, 2013 in Business, Energy

NAIROBI — Canadian explorer Africa Oil Corp said yesterday it had begun drilling a new well in Kenya with its British partner Tullow Oil Plc, as the two companies speed up exploration efforts in the east Africa region.

Reuters

East Africa has become a hotbed of exploration after oil discoveries in Kenya and Uganda and huge gas finds in Tanzania and Mozambique.

However, Kenya has yet to determine whether it has commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons.

Drilling of the Ekales-1 well, located within Kenya’s Lokichar basin, started on Monday.

Its planned depth is 2 500 metres and it would take approximately two months to drill and evaluate its content, Africa Oil said.

“The Ekales prospect is probably one of the lowest risk prospects in our inventory. The proximity and similarity to the existing Ngamia and Twiga discoveries give us a high degree of confidence that we will find oil and continue to build the discovered resources necessary for commercial volume threshold,” Keith Hill, Africa Oil’s chief executive, said ina statement.

Earlier this month, Tullow said it saw a flow rate potential of 5 000 barrels a day based on Ngamia-1 and Twiga-South-1, and estimated combined mean associated resources for the discoveries were 250 million barrels of oil, a forecast it said could increase furtherafter appraisal.

The Ekales-1 prospect is located approximately 15 km northwest of the Ngamia discovery and 7 km south of the Twiga discovery, Africa Oil said.

Ekales-1 on onshore block 13T is a joint venture between Tullow, the well operator with 50% of the exploration licence, and Africa Oil.

Buoyed by oil finds in Kenya’s Ngamia, Twiga and Etuko wells, Hill said Africa Oil and Tullow Oil planned to speed up their exploration efforts in the east Africa region, including theHorn of Africa.

“Our pace of exploration and appraisal continues to accelerate with the anticipated arrival of three additional rigs in Kenya and Ethiopia in the next 60 days for a total of six rigs, four of which will be operated by Tullow Oil,” he said.

“The recently announced Etuko discovery, on the flank of the Lokichar basis has opened a new play fairway and provided further confirmation of the world class potential of the Lokichar Basin.”

[nicolani]

Africa Oil Announces Additional Pay at Etuko-1 and an Update on Development Plans
Africa Oil Announces Additional Pay at Etuko-1 and an Update on Development Plans

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 31, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Company's major exploration success in Kenya continues with the Etuko-1 discovery on Block 10BB. The Etuko-1 has been deepened to penetrate Miocene-age sandstones of the Lower Lokhone formation and has encountered approximately 50 metres of potential net pay. This is in addition to the over 40 metres of net pay confirmed in the shallower Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone reservoirs previously announced.

Partner and Operator, Tullow Oil plc, reported today that following the success at Etuko-1, the Basin volumes are now expected to exceed the threshold for development studies to commence.

In May 2013, drilling commenced on the Etuko prospect, 14 km east of Twiga South-1. This is the first test of the Basin Flank Play in the eastern part of the Basin and results of drilling, wireline logs and samples of reservoir fluid confirm a new oil discovery with net pay of over 40 metres in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets. The well was then deepened into the Lower Lokhone sands and encountered approximately 50 metres of additional potential net pay that will be included in a program of flow testing later this year to determine their production potential. Although the Lower Lokhone sands are lower quality than the main objectives in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone formations, the partners successfully flowed oil from this interval in the Ngamia-1 well. Once operations at Etuko-1 are complete, the rig will move to the Agete prospect located 6 km north of the Twiga South discovery.

Ekales-1, the next exploration well in the Basin Bounding Fault Play and located between the Ngamia and Twiga-South discoveries, commenced drilling on 22 July 2013 and will target similar objectives. A 550 sq km 3D survey over the area, which will support an appraisal program, is also scheduled to commence in the third quarter of 2013.

Africa Oil's acreage includes several Tertiary-aged rift basins that have similar characteristics to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda. Over 90 leads and prospects have so far been identified across this acreage in Kenya following the acquisition of 55,000 sq km of FTG and more than 6,500 km of 2D seismic. Exploration drilling and testing activity in the region commenced in January 2012 with the drilling of the Ngamia-1 well followed by the Twiga South-1 well. Exploration and appraisal activities to date have significantly de-risked the remaining prospectivity in the Basin and underpin the belief that it and other basins within Africa Oil's acreage could have similar potential to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda.

The excellent results to date onshore Kenya are an important step towards understanding the overall Basin potential and its commerciality. Resources discovered to date are of a scale that the Partnership will initiate discussions with the Government of Kenya and other relevant stakeholders to consider development options. These discussions include consideration of a "start-up phase" oil production system with potential to deliver significant production rates with oil export via road or rail in advance of a full-scale pipeline development. To facilitate these development activities in parallel with exploration and appraisal, an "Area of Interest" (AOI), encompassing the Basin discoveries and further prospects in Blocks 13T and 10BB, was agreed with the Government of Kenya in February 2013. This agreement allows a multiple field approach to development of the resources while permitting the continued focus on exploration to increase the resource base while concurrently appraising discoveries.

Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through its 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East African holdings are in within a world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 250,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. Three new significant discoveries have been announced in the Lokichar basin in which the Company holds a 50% interest along with operator Tullow Oil plc. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Keith C. Hill, President and CEO

[motz1]

Sehr gute News. Einziger Wunsch: Flow that oil in Etuko Lower Lokhone

- Etuko mit weiteren möglichen 50m net pay im LL, damit (Stand heute) insgesamt 90m net pay möglich, leider keine Info ob aus dem LL samplings entnommen werden konnten.

- Kenya/Ethiopia wird für Tullow(!) nun ersichtlicher Weise immer bedeutsamer. Der gesamte Halbjahresbericht stützt 2 der 3 Schlagzeilen auf die beiden Länder, in der Strategie werden sie an erster Stelle genannt.

- Ngamia + Twiga + Etuko = "well in excess of 300mmbo, exceeding the threshold for development studies to commence." ... "These discussions include consideration of a ”start-up phase” oil production system with potential to deliver significant production rates with oil export via road or rail in advance of a full-scale pipeline development."

- Nach Fertigstellung von Etuko geht es zu "Agete", die Perle nördlich von Twiga


-----

Tullow:

* Major exploration success continues in Kenya with Etuko-1 discovery
* Kenya basin volumes exceed threshold for development
* Core business performing well with production up 14%, revenue up 15% and cash flow up 16%

[...]

Basin-opening E&A success continues onshore Kenya; following success at Etuko-1, Pmean resources are expected to be well in excess of 300 mmbo, exceeding the threshold for development studies to commence.

[...]

Strategic Overview
Tullow has continued to make good progress with its exploration-led growth strategy. We continue to build cash flow from high margin production to provide a solid base for our $1 billion per annum exploration and appraisal programme.
The exploration and appraisal programme has delivered significant resource upgrades in the first half of 2013 with the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 flow tests in Kenya confirming resources of over 250 mmbo. Following the Etuko-1 discovery, the Kenya Pmean basin resources are expected to be well in excess of 300 mmbo, exceeding the basin threshold for development studies to commence. In addition, successful appraisal in Uganda continues to underpin gross resources of around 1.7 billion barrels.

[...]


Kenya

In Kenya Tullow operates six onshore blocks in the East African Rift system with a 50 to 65% equity interest covering around 80,000 sq km. Tullow also has a 15% interest in Block L8, offshore Kenya.
The onshore acreage covers multiple rift basins which have similar characteristics to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda. 90 leads and prospects have so far been identified across this acreage following the acquisition of 55,000 sqkm of FTG and 4,160 km of 2D seismic. Exploration drilling and testing activity in the region commenced in January 2012 with the drilling of the Ngamia-1 well followed by the Twiga South-1 well. These initial discoveries have now been flow tested indicating over 250 mmbo mean resources discovered. Following the completion of the Etuko-1 well, the Kenya Pmean resources are expected to be well in excess of 300 mmbo, exceeding the basin threshold for development. Exploration and appraisal activities to date in 2013 have significantly de-risked remaining prospectivity in the basin and underpin our belief that it has similar potential to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda.
The flow tests of the Twiga South-1 and Ngamia-1 discovery wells were completed in February and July 2013 respectively. Both wells flowed at a cumulative constrained rate of around 3,000 bopd of 25 to 35 degree API sweet waxy oil with no indication of pressure depletion. These tests resulted in the doubling of our previous estimates of net oil pay, proved the potential to achieve an unconstrained rate of over 5,000 bopd per well and significantly increased discovered volumes to over 250 mmbo.

Ekales-1, the next exploration well in the Basin Bounding Fault Play, on trend with Ngamia and Twiga-South, commenced drilling on 22 July 2013. A 550 sq km 3D survey over the area, which will support our appraisal programme, is also scheduled to commence in the third quarter of 2013.

In May 2013, drilling commenced on the Etuko prospect, 14 km east of Twiga South-1 in Block 10BB. This is the first test of the Basin Flank Play in the eastern part of the basin and results of drilling, wireline logs and samples of reservoir fluid confirm a new oil discovery with net pay of over 40 metres in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets. The well was then deepened into the Lower Lokhone sands and encountered an additional 50 metres of potential net oil pay which will be included in a programme of flow testing later this year, to determine their production potential. Although the Lower Lokhone sands have been established to be poorer quality than the main objectives in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone, we have successfully flowed oil from this interval at Ngamia.

Once operations at Etuko-1 are complete, the rig will move to the Agete prospect north of Twiga-South.

In addition to the existing two rigs, a third rig has been contracted to support increased exploration and appraisal activity in Kenya by the end of the third quarter of 2013. A dedicated well testing unit has been contracted and will arrive in country in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The excellent results to date onshore Kenya are an important step towards understanding the overall basin potential and its commerciality. Resources discovered to date are of a scale that the partnership will initiate discussions with the Government of Kenya and other relevant stakeholders to consider development options. These discussions include consideration of a ”start-up phase” oil production system with potential to deliver significant production rates with oil export via road or rail in advance of a full-scale pipeline development. To facilitate these development activities in parallel with exploration and appraisal, an “Area of Interest” (AOI), encompassing the basin discoveries and further prospects in Blocks 13T and 10BB, was agreed with the Government of Kenya in February 2013. This agreement allows a multiple field approach to development of the resources while permitting the continued focus on exploration to increase the resource base while concurrently appraising discoveries.

Elsewhere in Kenya, in a different play in the Anza Basin in Block 10A, the Paipai-1 commitment well was drilled in March 2013 and encountered light hydrocarbon shows whilst drilling. The well has been suspended and will be tested in the future.


Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, Tullow has a 50% operated interest in the South Omo block, its most northerly interest in the Kenya-Ethiopia Rift system where at least two independent basins have been identified. In January 2013, Tullow commenced drilling Sabisa-1, the first ever well in this frontier acreage in the South Omo Basin. The well encountered reservoir quality sands, oil and heavy gas shows and a thick shale section. The presence of oil prone source rocks, reservoir sands and good seals is extremely encouraging for the numerous fault bounded traps identified in the basin. Discovering an oil prone basin is an important result for the remaining prospectivity and consequently a follow-up prospect in the basin will now be drilled targeting some of the 30 or so leads and prospects identified to date. The Tultule prospect, four kilometres east of Sabisa-1, is expected to commence drilling late in the third quarter of 2013. Numerous additional follow-up prospects have been mapped in this part of the South Omo Block and in the adjacent Chew Bahir Basin which will be targeted after the Tultule-1 well.

[...]

http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_half_yearly_…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.148.819 von motz1 am 31.07.13 10:15:07

Heute mal eine vernünftige Reaktion zu dieser Meldung.
1.257.000 Stück umsatz um 11:15 Uhr in Schweden.
Mal sehen was die Holzfäller daraus machen. Leider war es letztes mal so, da wurde am Nachmittag dann ganz schön wieder zurückgerudert.
Ich lass mich gerne mal wieder Überraschen
Niki

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.149.641 von niki550525 am 31.07.13 11:30:57

Abseits vom Kurs, Tullow hat mit seiner Präsi in meinen Augen "die Perle des Tages" veröffentlicht.

Welch hohen Stellenwert East Africa, insbesondere Kenia und Äthiopien, bei Tullow mittlerweile genießt wird aus der Präsentation deutlich. Die ist uneingeschränkt empfehlenswert mit vielen weiteren Infos zur Region und den Vorhaben.

--------------------------


Selbst das Frontcover ist aus East Africa...



Eine neue Darstellung des Lokichar Basins. Z.B. wird das enorme Upside Ngamias auf einen Blick deutlich, mit Etom, Ekosowan und Amosing warten noch richtig prächtige Perlen - von Ewoi und Ekunyuk ganz zu scheigen...
Etwa 10.000 bopd early production?
Die genannte AOI (Area of Interest) gilt sowohl für den String of Pearls als auch für die Flank Plays - in Kombination mit Slide 45 ist erkennbar dass die Appraisalstrategie auf Ngamia und Etuko liegt. Also werden konform zur AOI jeweils eine discovery je play type mit appraisals näher untersucht, der Rest der Aktivitäten gilt der Exploration.
Nice .


Wir sind mit AOI bei 10 von 12 Basins dabei...


Die Headline sagt eigentlich alles.



Mit Etuko, dem ursprünglichen "Lieblingsprospekt" von AOI stehen die Vorzeichen für das Funktionieren der Rift Flank Plays ganz ordentlich - Flows abwarten.



Die begonnene und geplante Erkundung der Basins.



Das Explorationsprogramm von Tullow konzentriert sich zunehmends auf Kenia und Äthiopien. Das Kleingedruckte ist lesenswert: Durch den frühen Erfolg wird die Explorationsgeschwindigkeit kontinuierlich erhöht...

http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_half_yearly_…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_half_yearly_…

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.151.197 von motz1 am 31.07.13 14:07:11

DANKE, motz1! Erneut ein großartiger Beitrag!!

... Offensichtlich war der kleine Hinweis in der letzten News, dass man MDT in den tiefen Zonen testet, ein goldener Hinweis...

Man hat also auch Fluid Samples aus dem lower Lokhone... Und Tullow selbst spricht von 50m Pay dort (das hatten sie bei Ngamia zunächst nicht gesagt; nur AOC hat von zusätzlicher Pay Zone gesprochen - erst als es erfolgreich getestet war, sprach auch Tullow von Pay im lower Lokhone...). Das Ding ist eine MEGA-Discovery angesichts. Der horizontalen Ausdehnung... Und bei 90m Pay wird es erfahrungsgemäß nicht bleiben...

Einfach cool das Ganze...


... Und nächstes Jahr produzieren wir mindestens 10.000 bbl per Day .... Wow...

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.154.467 von gimo211 am 31.07.13 18:38:33

"... Und nächstes Jahr produzieren wir mindestens 10.000 bbl per Day .... Wow..."

davon kann man augenblicklich ausgehen!

[nicolani]

die zeit ist reif, für eine stetige und nachhaltige entwicklung des unternehmens, uns allen viel freude!

[motz1]

Von Tullow gibt es einen Nachschlag: Webcast!

Wieder vollgepackt mit sehr vielen interessanten Infos und Hinweisen.

Im wesentlichen wird genau der Eindruck des Halbjahresberichts und der Präsentation bestätigt: East Africa, allen voran Kenya und Ethiopia sind "name of the game".

Die Herren Heavey, McCoss und McDade betonen immer wieder wie überaus zufrieden sie mit der Entwicklung sind.


Mein Lieblingszitat von Angus McCoss:
"Unit in East Africa is the basin. Forget about well per well".


http://www.media-server.com/m/p/mvanypmn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.media-server.com/m/p/mvanypmn
(Einmaliges Anmelden ist nötig)

[nicolani]

ja heute bis 8,30 in ca und dann geht morgen an der omx die post ab!

[motz1]

Reaktionen:

------------------

UPDATE 2-Kenya-Uganda could pipe 0.5 mln barrels of oil per day - Tullow

Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:54am BST

* Etuko-1 makes Kenya Lokichar Basin commercially viable
* Kenya resource volume estimate raised to 300 mln barrels

By Andrew Callus

LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - Tullow Oil said a new drilling success at the Etuko-1 well in Kenya confirms the commercial value of fields there and predicted a pipeline picking up Ugandan crude too could deliver 500,000 barrels a day of new output.

That amount - probably delivered to the east-coast port of Lamu near the border with Somalia - would boost sub-Saharan African output by 8 percent, from around 6.2 million barrels now. It is equivalent to all the lost production from troubled top exporter Nigeria over the past three years.

Tullow has said in the past it hopes to see a 250,000-barrels-a-day pipeline from Uganda's Lake Albert region, where the company is also drilling, with a view to first deliveries by 2018. It has also raised the possibility of a tie-in to its Kenyan prospects.

In June, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta agreed to cooperate on a pipeline route that could also eventually ship oil from South Sudan.

The Etuko-1 result, added to two other wells, raises Tullow's estimate of resource volumes in the Lokichar basin in Kenya's northwest to 300 million barrels from 250 million.

A Kenya-Uganda pipeline with a total length of 1,300 to 1,400 km (800-870 miles) could be a reality "at a similar date (2018)", said Paul McDade, the company's chief operating officer.

"When you start to take into account the potential of Kenya, and Lokichar is just the first component of what Kenya could be, it could be much more material than 250,000 barrels a day. It could easily be 500,000 barrels a day or even beyond depending on the exploration success we continue to have in Kenya."

Kenya could also envisage exporting oil as early as 2016 by rail and road, McDade said.

"We are highlighting the ability to get focused on development early... (but)... It's early days. We are only initiating discussions with the Kenyan government" on how to develop its reserves, he said.

"We have 90-plus exploration prospects yet to drill in Kenya so there's a long way to go before we'd understand the full value of this acreage."

Tullow is principally an explorer that seeks to bring in investors with deeper pockets for the development stage of its projects. Its partner in Etuko-1 is Africa Oil.
[...]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/tullow-results-idUK…



Tullow hits more potential pay in Kenya

Eoin O'Cinneide
31 July 2013 08:01 GMT

Tullow Oil looks set to begin field development studies in Kenya after a deepened discovery well yielded significantly more potential pay.
[...]
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1333420.ece



Further upgrade to discovered volumes in Kenya

DAVY VIEW
July 31 2013

Tullow has upgraded its estimate for discovered volumes in Kenya from over 250 mmbbl to ‘well in excess of 300 mmbbl’ on the back of the Etuko discovery. We think this piece of news sets an overall positive tone to Tullow’s interims and that renewed signs of organic growth will be welcomed by the market.

Development studies begin in Kenya
Since its previous update on the Etuko exploration well on the eastern side of the Lokichar Basin, Tullow and its partner have encountered an additional 50 metres of potential net oil pay in the deeper Lower Lokhone sands. Scheduled flow tests on this interval will improve the certainty of this net pay figure.

Tullow estimates that volumes from its first three discoveries in Kenya are well in excess of 300 mmbbl (previous estimate was 250 mmbbl for the first two discoveries). Given the scale of discovered resources, Tullow will now initiate discussions with relevant parties to consider development options, which also include a ‘start-up’ option with early production delivered by rail and/or road. While the development threshold has been crossed, commerciality remains to be established and will require further appraisal work.
[...]
http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_B…



Tullow to Start Initial Oil Pumping in Kenya After Resource Gain

By Eduard Gismatullin
July 31, 2013

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW), the U.K. explorer that found Kenya’s first oil, will start initial production next year after finding more resources in the Lokichar Basin.

Tullow raised its resources estimate about 20 percent to more than 300 million barrels of oil equivalent after drilling the Etuko-1 discovery, it said today in a statement. Africa Oil Corp. (AOI), its partner, said the well was extended in Block 10BB, finding about 50 meters (164 feet) of addition oil column.

“We’ve certainly reached the threshold for development,” Tullow Chief Operating Officer Paul McDade said in a phone interview. “We are starting to think about other options within Kenya to do earlier production by road and by rail.”
[...]
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-31/tullow-to-start-…



Kenya Forms Security Unit to Guard Oil Assets in Unstable North

By Abjata Khalif
Jul 29, 2013 11:00 PM GMT+0200

Kenya has created a security unit to protect oil exploration sites in its strife-prone north where companies including Vanoil Energy Ltd. (VEL) are searching for petroleum, a senior government official said.

The region, which borders Somalia and Ethiopia, has been hit by frequent grenade and gun attacks since the country sent its army into southern Somalia in Oct. 2011 in pursuit of al-Qaeda-linked rebels trying to impose Islamic law. Kenya has accused al-Shabaab of carrying out attacks on foreigners in its north including the kidnapping of aid workers and tourists.
[...]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-29/kenya-forms-securit…

[niki550525]

Zitat von nicolani: ja heute bis 8,30 in ca und dann geht morgen an der omx die post ab!

.....und wovon träumst Du Nachts ???????
Im Ernst, die Zeit hat sich noch nicht verbessert und deshalb sehen wir halt auch wieder das gleiche Spiel wie beim letzten mal.
Kursgewinne werden benützt um Bestände abzubauen. Denke das das eine sehr kurzfristige Sicht der Dinge ist, aber die Trader bestimmen derzeit die Richtung.Es herrscht auch hier Sommerpause.
Fakten zählen derzeit nur nebensächlich und bringen wie hier nur kurzzeitige Kursanstiege.
Letztes Jahr wäre der Kurs durch diese Ankündigung durch die Decke gegangen.
Gestern das Zeichen, dass sich eine Förderung in jedem Fall schon zum heutigen Zeitpunkt lohnt. Das ist normalerweise der Startpunkt zu einer Kursrally.Doch die Realität sieht anders aus. Es wird die Zeit kommen wo wir eine faire Kursbewertung haben werden, vielleicht auch eine Übertreibung
M.E müsste nach der gestrigen Meldung der Kurs jetzt schon weit über 10 CAN $ stehen.
Niki

[nicolani]

ja die bewertung könnte nun wirklich mal angehoben werden!

[motz1]

An seriöser Recherche sicherlich zu übertreffen, allerdings schön zu sehen dass auch aus dieser "Research"-Richtung mal wieder ein laues Lüftchen weht:

.................


500,000 Barrels of Oil Per Day

Tyler Laundon
August 1, 2013

A rare and exciting event occurred in the oil market yesterday…

One of the world’s most promising new oil basins - in the East African country of Kenya - clearly holds enough oil to make commercial production possible.

This will be the first ever oil production in the country, with estimates topping 250,000 barrels of oil per day within the next five years.

That means Kenya could increase sub-Saharan African oil output by 8%, and make up for the last three years of decreased supply from Nigeria, according to Reuters.

Two companies are largely responsible for this success: Tullow Oil (OTC: TUWOY) and its partner Africa Oil (OTC: AOIFF). Tullow now estimates that Kenya’s oil resource tops 300 million barrels.

That’s enough to justify a pipeline tie-in with Tullow’s projects in neighboring Uganda, which together could bring at least 500,000 barrels a day to the Kenyan coast.

The relative speed with which commercial quantities of oil have been discovered in Kenya is impressive. Just two years ago Africa Oil and Tullow had a dream and some cash…but no wells had been drilled.

Now that dream has become a reality, both for these companies and for shareholders.

After recommending shares of Africa oil two years ago, I’ve been closely watching events unfold in Kenya. I recommended Africa Oil to 100% Letter subscribers back in January 2011 when shares sold for $1.85. They have since soared by 320% to trade at $7.82.

While I’m personally sitting on a nice profit in the stock, I have no intention of selling. These are still early days in Kenya as its oil industry is barely in the incubation stage.

Over the last couple of years the companies have drilled five wells in the Lokichar Basin, in the northeast part of the country. Three of these wells hit pay-dirt, and collectively make commercial quantities of oil production possible by surpassing the 250,000 barrels per day threshold.

The latest, the Etuko-1 well, is what tipped the scales toward commercial viability when 90 meters of oil were discovered.

There is little doubt that East Africa is one of the hottest oil-exploration regions of the world, and M&A activity is picking up as companies try to secure rights to the best properties. Tullow and Africa Oil are right in the thick of it, driving the country toward its first ever domestic production which could be just two years away.

This will most likely be achieved by moving the oil by road or rail, given that pipeline infrastructure – which is considerably more complicated - is likely five years away.

That’s because Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda (and let’s throw in Somalia too) currently lack the infrastructure to allow for commercial-scale oil production. To make that dream possible there are at least a few more years of cross-border negotiations and development.

A slide from Tullow's investor presentation shows proposed development options for the region (see below image). You can see how a pipeline (or multiple pipelines) could go directly from Lake Albert in Uganda to multiple locations along the coast of Kenya, picking up oil along the way.

The scenario I believe is most likely at the moment is the pipeline to Lamu for export. This is an increasingly likely route given these latest drill results.



What’s more exciting than surpassing commercial thresholds, however, is that these latest discoveries could just be the tip of the iceberg.

There are more than two dozen prospective sedimentary basins in the entire East Africa Region, spreading over Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Somalia. Tullow and Africa Oil have rights to a good portion of this acreage. And the companies have already selected 90 additional drilling prospects.

That’s a lot of potential drilling catalysts for investors to keep an eye on. And just one reason why I believe there are still gains to be made investing in the region.

I’ve recently put together a detailed investment report on the entire region. The report explains all of the details of oil drilling in East Africa, including my investment analysis of the top companies. The most exciting thing you’ll discover in my report is details on a new company that’s preparing to drill its first well in the region. This stock could be the “next” Africa Oil. You can get all the details by clicking here now.



Good investing,

Tyler Laundon
Newport, Rhode Island

http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/500000-barrels-of-oil-p…

[gimo211]

http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/500000-barrels-of-oil-p…

500,000 Barrels of Oil Per Day
Tyler Laundon
August 1, 2013



A rare and exciting event occurred in the oil market yesterday…

One of the world’s most promising new oil basins - in the East African country of Kenya - clearly holds enough oil to make commercial production possible.

This will be the first ever oil production in the country, with estimates topping 250,000 barrels of oil per day within the next five years.

That means Kenya could increase sub-Saharan African oil output by 8%, and make up for the last three years of decreased supply from Nigeria, according to Reuters.

Two companies are largely responsible for this success: Tullow Oil (OTC: TUWOY) and its partner Africa Oil (OTC: AOIFF). Tullow now estimates that Kenya’s oil resource tops 300 million barrels.
That’s enough to justify a pipeline tie-in with Tullow’s projects in neighboring Uganda, which together could bring at least 500,000 barrels a day to the Kenyan coast.

The relative speed with which commercial quantities of oil have been discovered in Kenya is impressive. Just two years ago Africa Oil and Tullow had a dream and some cash…but no wells had been drilled.
Now that dream has become a reality, both for these companies and for shareholders.
After recommending shares of Africa oil two years ago, I’ve been closely watching events unfold in Kenya. I recommended Africa Oil to 100% Letter subscribers back in January 2011 when shares sold for $1.85. They have since soared by 320% to trade at $7.82.

While I’m personally sitting on a nice profit in the stock, I have no intention of selling. These are still early days in Kenya as its oil industry is barely in the incubation stage.

Over the last couple of years the companies have drilled five wells in the Lokichar Basin, in the northeast part of the country. Three of these wells hit pay-dirt, and collectively make commercial quantities of oil production possible by surpassing the 250,000 barrels per day threshold.

The latest, the Etuko-1 well, is what tipped the scales toward commercial viability when 90 meters of oil were discovered.
There is little doubt that East Africa is one of the hottest oil-exploration regions of the world, and M&A activity is picking up as companies try to secure rights to the best properties. Tullow and Africa Oil are right in the thick of it, driving the country toward its first ever domestic production which could be just two years away.

This will most likely be achieved by moving the oil by road or rail, given that pipeline infrastructure – which is considerably more complicated - is likely five years away.

That’s because Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda (and let’s throw in Somalia too) currently lack the infrastructure to allow for commercial-scale oil production. To make that dream possible there are at least a few more years of cross-border negotiations and development.

A slide from Tullow's investor presentation shows proposed development options for the region (see below image). You can see how a pipeline (or multiple pipelines) could go directly from Lake Albert in Uganda to multiple locations along the coast of Kenya, picking up oil along the way.

The scenario I believe is most likely at the moment is the pipeline to Lamu for export. This is an increasingly likely route given these latest drill results.



What’s more exciting than surpassing commercial thresholds, however, is that these latest discoveries could just be the tip of the iceberg.

There are more than two dozen prospective sedimentary basins in the entire East Africa Region, spreading over Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Somalia. Tullow and Africa Oil have rights to a good portion of this acreage. And the companies have already selected 90 additional drilling prospects.

That’s a lot of potential drilling catalysts for investors to keep an eye on. And just one reason why I believe there are still gains to be made investing in the region.

I’ve recently put together a detailed investment report on the entire region. The report explains all of the details of oil drilling in East Africa, including my investment analysis of the top companies. The most exciting thing you’ll discover in my report is details on a new company that’s preparing to drill its first well in the region. This stock could be the “next” Africa Oil. You can get all the details by clicking here now.


Good investing,
Tyler Laundon
Newport, Rhode Island

[bmann025]

DeHaemer

"There are two geographic areas I'm telling my readers to buy oil companies...

One is Kenya. The other is the Bakken down under, in politically stable New Zealand."

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/iraqi-oil-armageddo…

[niki550525]

So dann mal wieder was zur Charttechnik:
Da wir ja nun seit 2 Tagen über dem MA 200 liegen will ich mal was wesentliches hier einstellen:
Das Überkreuzen der 200-Tage-Linie bedeutet einen Trendwechsel. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür lässt sich aus der Trend-Stärke ableiten. Denn je geringer der Abstand zwischen Kurs und GD, desto niedriger ist die Trend-Stärke, womit die Wahrscheinlichkeit
eines Trendwechsels ansteigt. Analog erhöht sich die Trend-Stärke mit einem steigenden Abstand zwischen Kurs und GD.
Ebenso hat sich wie erwartet die letzten Tage die MA50 (7,23 CAN$) auf die MA 200 (7,54 CAN$) zubewegt. Bei durchschreiten der MA200 erfolgt eine Initialzündung :-)
Den Abwärtstrend haben wir nach oben verlassen und somit kann der Kurs beruhigt steigen. Die Umsätze haben angezogen. Somit sind die Charttsignale berechenbarer geworden.
Alle Indikatoren stehen auf Grün.
Nur das offene GAP von 7,30 -7,60 CAN$ steht für einen Kursrückgang. Vielleicht gehört es ja zu den 10% die nicht geschlossen werden ?

Nun zu den Fakten:
Ich gehe immer noch davon aus, das Etuko-1 maßloss unterschätzt wird.
Die Schätzung für 50m Net Pay lag bei 231 Millionen Barrel. Nun sind es aber 90 m und ich gehe davon aus, dass die Recource nun bis zu 400 Millionen Barrel erhöht werden wird.
Zudem gibt es in diesem JAhr noch 7 - 10 Wells.
Mit der Überschreitung der Schwelle zur kommerziellen Entwicklung des Lokichar Basins, wurde ein wichtiger Meilenstein gelegt. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt ein überragendes Ergebnis. Sehr positiv sind ebenfalls die Pläne von Tullow ,hier eine frühzeitige Ölproduktion mit dem Transport via Eisenbahnund Straßen zu starten.Damit wird frühzeitig Geld in die Unternehmen gespühlt, die dann keinen bedarf an Kapitalerhöhung haben werden.
Alles in allem "goldige" Aussichten die vom Markt noch nicht erkannt wurden. Leider habe ich kein frisches Kapital um noch weitere Aktien von AOI zu kaufen. Ich würde es sonst tun. Wo kann man mit seinem Invest ruhiger schlafen als hier ?
Niki

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.164.413 von gimo211 am 01.08.13 20:05:06

Hallo Gimo,

Das Teil könnte vielleicht für euch "Oilers" interessant sein:
www.tangierspetroleum.com/~/media/Files/T/Tangiers-Petroleum…

Gruß
P.

[motz1]

Ein Artikel der wesentliche Inhalte der Halbjahrespräsentation von Tullow gut zusammenfasst. Leider erweitert der Autor Aussagen die Heavey auf Uganda bezieht auch auf East Africa, was so nicht gesagt wurde.

.....................



Tullow chief speaks of East Africa’s great oil prospects

Sunday, 04 August 2013 17:19
Written by Patience Akumu

London: East Africa is set to become a major oil province, according to Tullow Oil’s glowing half-yearly results, released last week in London.

Tullow announced that with promising prospects in Kenya, combined with Uganda’s already confirmed 3.5 billion barrels of oil, East Africa continued to show immense potential. Tullow says it is close to signing a memorandum of understanding on a basin commercialisation plan with the government of Uganda.

It also pointed out that more oil and gas prospects have been identified in Ethiopia and Madagascar.

“The oil industry doesn’t appreciate how important the East African basin is going to be,” said Tullow CEO Aidan Heavey, adding that in spite of the challenges of doing business in the region he would not swap his assets for anybody else’s.

“Opportunities for East Africa are just enormous,” he said.

In June, the presidents of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania agreed on an integrated concept for oil development in the region, including the building of a joint export pipeline under the leadership of Kenya.

But even with the immense opportunities at hand, Heavey says that some of the “complexities” of doing business in East Africa pose a threat to its potential.

“It is very difficult for foreign businesses to work in Africa. Decision making is slow and there is no transparency,” he told The Observer in London.

According to Heavey, these ambiguities and bureaucracies are frustrating for businesses because they do not have accurate and reliable information to use and plan ahead.

“Government should (now) be putting together long term plans,” he said. “Government should be more transparent to take away suspicion.”

Heavey, nevertheless, insists that East Africa can dare to dream. And the region can draw from the experiences of Ghana, where the oil there has transformed the lives of ordinary Ghanaians for the better.

“There are lots of opportunities for local business people to supply us goods and services,” Heavey said of the opportunities that oil brings.

He is confident that the script will be different in East Africa because the company believes “it is our business to help local people,” and “it is (all) happening locally.”

In an interview with The Telegraph in 2009, Heavey said: “Historically, oil has been a curse in a lot of countries, especially in Africa but we work with communities, local government and local industries long before we ever start producing oil.”

At the time, Heavey predicted that the future of fuel lies in Africa. According to Heavey, “If it is done properly, this might be it for East Africa.”

[e-mail]

http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=art…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=art…

[niki550525]

Heute nun das gleiche Spiel wie vor der Veröffentlichung der Supernews.
Ab 15:40 Uhr konnte man gut erkennen wie der Kurs nach unten gedrückt wird. Bei diesen mageren Umsätzen ist alles möglich und das wird auch hier im negativen Sinn auch gezeigt.
Um kurz vor 18:00 Uhr sind gerade magere 277 K in Schweden und 46 K in Kanada umgesetzt worden. Es liegt einfach an der Kaufzurückhaltung der Anleger. In Schweden kann man gut sehen wie das Bid bedient wird.
Könnte ja sein, dass einige Urlaub machen und daher Ihre Bestände vorher noch draußen haben möchten, weil sie von einem Kursrückgang aus gehen. Da hat sich schon mancher gewundert wie die Kurse nach dem Urlaub ausgesehen haben :-)

So nun ein wenig zur Charttechnik:
MA 50 (7,28 CAN$) bewegt sich allmählich auf MA 200 (7,52 CAN$) zu.
Der Kurs tendiert nach unten und veringert somit den Abstand zu MA200. Das bedeutet, das der Trend an stärke verliert. Ist auch das was wir am Kurs sehen. Seit 2 Tagen gibt es Kursrückgänge.
Slow STO ist negativ geworden da er nach unten durchgebrochen ist.
RSI tendiert auch nach unten ist aber noch mit 64 % im grünen Bereich.
Erste Unterstützung ist die MA 200 bei 7,52 CAN$.Zweite wichtige Unterstützung liegt bei derzeit 7,28 CAN$. Bei 7,30 CAN$ wäre auch das offene Gap geschlossen.Wenn man sich den Kursverlauf der letzten Monate anschaut ist das absolut im Bereich des möglichen, trotz super Aussichten.
Das wird sich m.E. auch erst ändern wenn die Rohstoffaktien wieder gefragt sind.
Dann kaufen alle wie blöd. Das kann man aber auch so im privaten Leben beobachten.
Beispiel: Man beachte 2 Lokale. Das eine ist leer, das andere in proppen voll. Wo geht man hin. Natürlich in das volle, weil sich soviel Leute ja nicht irren können, auch wenn es teurer ist.
Verrückte Welt :-)
Niki

[gabbo62]

Die aktuellen Short-Zahlen (TSX-V).
Mit 584k Short-Bestand werden wir wohl nochmal die 6 vor dem Komma sehen.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
584,406 31/Jul/2013
533,246 15/Jul/2013
595,315 30/Jun/2013

[gabbo62]

Homepage im neuen Layout

http://aoi.pubco.net/s/home.asp

[motz1]

Sehr cool gabbo62, that made my day! Finde die Site auf den ersten Blick richtig gelungen. Muss ich mir noch eingehend anschauen, es scheinen ein paar neue Links dabei zu sein.

---------------

Interessant: Ein kleinerer Explorer, Vanoil, hat gestern mitgeteilt dass sie ihren Verpflichtungen nachgekommen sind und ihre erste Bohrung in Kenya noch im Juli begonnen haben. Das ganze ist südlich von Block 9 (AOI/Marathon).
In dem Teil des Landes gibt es scheinbar Widerstände der Bevölkerung und daher wird versucht wenig zu veröffentlichen: http://www.vanoil.ca/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=596337&_Ty…

Im Hinblick auf die in diesem Jahr noch stattfindenden Aktivitäten in Block 9 dürfte es sich lohnen das im Auge zu behalten...

[niki550525]

Hi @,
im Q2-Call wurden von Tullow -CEO A. Heavey wichtige Infos bekannt gegeben, die ich Euch nicht vorenthalten will.
Es sind selbstverständlich auch von diesem Herren nur Spekulationen, die sich erst bewahrheiten müssen. Es zeigt jedoch die Richtung die Tullow gehen will.
Wichtig ist zu sehen, dass Tullow die Zukunft in Ost Afrika als gigantisch ansieht. Man rechnet hier in einem Zeitraum von 5 Jahren mit einem Volumen von 7 Milliarden Barrel.
Was das für AOI bedeutet, kann sich jeder der einigermaßen in der Schule aufgepasst hat, selbst errechnen :-)
Schon jetzt müsste AOI bei normaler Bewertung bei m.E über 10 CAN$ stehen. Die normale Bewertung wird sich einstellen, es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit.
Niki

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.215.171 von niki550525 am 09.08.13 10:55:36

Niki,

der Call von Tullow ist absolut sehens-/hörens-/lesenswert, in voller Länge. Das ist ein Meilenstein für AOI!

Was die Herren Heavey, McCoss und McDade von sich geben sollte einem für AOI ausreichen um zu wissen, worauf wir sitzen.


Nur ein "Fetzen" von A. Heavey aus dem vollständigen Transcript:

"We've had great success in finding oil in Uganda and now we've had three wells in a row in Kenya, but we will start
to give you a flavor through Angus is how important we see Kenya becoming, and we've also found oil in Ethiopia.
So we believe that that sort of area is going to become a major, major oil province, and Tullow dominates the whole
area. So we see this as an area where we can add huge value over a long, long period of time. So I think it's just
one of our assets but it's a tremendous asset and I think if you were to look at the main assets of Tullow today,
we're African best, I wouldn't swap any of our main assets for anybody else's assets. I think we have some of the
best assets in the continent."

Die Liste an bemerkenswerten Zitaten lässt sich beliebig fortsetzen, steht alles im Transcript.

Das sagt der CEO von Tullow - AOI hat noch größere Liegenschaften! Die Bemerkung dass sie "Öl in Äthiopien" gefunden haben muss imho Sabisa betreffen. Sollte Tultule also ein Treffer werden ist das Play-Concept des südlichen String of Pearls bis nach Äthiopien hinein bestätigt, beste Anzeichen dafür sind bereits vorhanden...

Also wer sich mit AOI oder mit East Africa und der dortigen Ölförderung beschäftigt sollte folgende Links unbedingt ausführlich verfolgen (lesen, sehen, hören - es ist für jeden was dabei ).

Die Ausführungen sind inhaltlich nicht neu. Bisher waren es jedoch eher Bestandteile eines best case scenarios von einzelnen (auch Forenmitgliedern ) oder die Worte von Keith Hill, der imho mittlerweile genug abgestraft wurde. Jetzt sagt TULLOW genau das öffentlich - diese Veranstaltung dürfte ein Meilenstein in der Geschichte von AOI gewesen sein!

Die Anzahl von Berichten und Reportagen zu East Africa sind -verglichen mit den Zeiten bis Ende 2011- exponentiell gestiegen, man kommt heute kaum noch nach die Beiträge zu lesen.


Alles zum Conference Call:

Webcast:





Transcript: http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_HY_webcast_t…

Presentation: http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_half_yearly_…


Onwards and upwards!

[gimo211]

Hi, motz1...

... Wir beide sind uns ja ohnehin einig, welche Bedeutung die Aussagen von Tullow zu Kenya und Ethiopia für unsere AOCs haben... (Ich verkaufe keinen AOC-Share unter $50 - vermutlich jedoch eher um $100.... ; ) )


Aber das beste Zitat aus der Halbjahreskonferenz ist doch, wenn der Tullow CEO Aidan Heavey vor den Analysten folgendes sagt...:


"We struggle ourselves to find out how Tullow should be valued. We have been much more focused on getting on with the business. You guys are a lot smarter than me, I couldn’t do your job. I joke with some of you that I think you’re all useless, it’s not the case! "




Wie wahr....

[motz1]

"... Wir beide sind uns ja ohnehin einig, welche Bedeutung die Aussagen von Tullow zu Kenya und Ethiopia für unsere AOCs haben..."

Yep, absolut .


Heavy und seinen Kollegen muss unumstößlich klar geworden sein, dass sie allein durch das Kenya- (und im weiteren Sinne East-Africa-) Acreage ihr mittelfristiges Ziel jährlich 200 Millonen Barrel an Reserven hinzuzufügen mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit übertreffen werden.
Er und die gesamte Mannschaft machten einen recht gelösten Eindruck. Der Kommentar zu den Analysten ist wirklich klasse. Da schwingt wohl noch eine Menge an Enttäuschung über die vergangene Short-Aktion mit...



Auf der überarbeiteten Website gibt es eine neue Rubrik, "Well Summary" (http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/AOI-well-summary.pdf) - Ngamia wird mit über 243m net pay geführt.



Was Tullow im CC dazu sagte:
"But the interesting observation is that we are finding over a kilometre of oil bearing sands in these wells and this is a
much bigger growth oil bearing integral that we have ever seen before. So in Uganda, you might get 45 metres, 50
metres net pay in the best well and the biggest Tullow's oil bearing integral might be 200 metres. Here we are
seeing a gross oil bearing that was over a kilometre and that is the cut there, the play interval down there and we
are working with clear, prolific sure-shot because we were able to charge the String of Pearls play and the Basin
Flank play to a matter of over a kilometre of oil bearing section on both sides of the basin."

Dass sich das 1km-gross-intervall auch auf die andere Basin-Seite übertragen lässt ist ein äußerst erfreuliches Signal für Etuko. Jedenfalls freue ich mich auf die Appraisals zu Ngamia und Etuko, imho Monster in der Entstehungsphase.


Ich hoffe dass wir jetzt dann das lange ersehnte Tempo aufnehmen können und die Rigs zügig in Aktion kommen...


Fingers crossed

[gimo211]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.222.407 von motz1 am 10.08.13 11:34:30

Dieses 200 mmbbls per Year an zusätzlicher Recoverable Resource Target von Tullow scheint mir auch eine brutale Untertreibung...

Es geht um die Basins.... Sollte der gesamte Tertiary Trend bestätigt werden (daher ist South Omo / Tutule so wichtig...), dann übertreffen sie dieses Target um ein Vielfaches.

Bei einem Erfolg in 8 von 12 Basins, sieht Tullow eine Resource von 10 bis 12 Milliarden bbls. An 10 von diesem Basins ist AOC beteilig (hinzu kommen noch unsere Vorhaben mit Marathon und im Ogaden Block plus HRN).

AOC hat demnach eine Perspektive auf über 5 Milliarden bbls - selbst bei einem NPV von $10 per bbls ergäbe das einen schönen Wert für unsere Company...

Just a matter of time...

[nicolani]

AOI 4 ASSE!

[motz1]

Adigala: Genel aboard! Damit verbleiben New Age nur noch 10%, sollte der gesamte 40%-Anteil von New Age gekauft werden...

---------------

UPDATE - Genel Energy acquiring 40% stake in highly prospective Ethiopian oil block

By Ian Lyall August 12 2013, 12:32pm

Deal almost done: Genel's acquisition has to be signed off by the Ethiopian authorities.

---ADDS BROKER COMMENT AND SHARE PRICE---

Genel Energy (LON:GENL) is to acquire a 40% stake in Ethiopia’s Adigala block from a private company called New Age.
The exact terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. However, Genel will pay a contribution to back-costs and towards a planned 2D seismic programme.

An earlier reprocessed 2D survey over 520 kilometres provided evidence of a working petroleum system, as did other tell-tale signs such as oil seeps and surface outcrops of type of rock that might contain oil.

The area is said to bear all the hallmarks of the prolific producing Jurassic Rift Basins of Yemen.

Several large potential structural closures (oil traps) have been identified on existing data.

The Adigala Block covers around 27,000 square kilometres and borders Djibouti to the north and Somaliland to the east.

The deal is expected to complete next month and requires sign-off from the Ethiopian authorities.

"The move sits comfortably within the group strategy of expanding the high impact exploration portfolio in the Middle East and Africa especially where Genel can acquire a material position," said Oriel Securities.

It rates the stock a 'buy' and its 'risked' net asset value is £13.23. This is around a third higher than the current price of just over £10 a share.

Kurdistan-focused Genel's African exploration portfolio including its interests in the Ivory Coast, Somaliland and in Morocco, where drilling is planned later this quarter.

Essentially echoing Oriel's point, Northland Capital Partners said of Monday's news: "The move marks the expansion of Genel’s Africa interests and highlights the continuing attraction of East Africa as a hydrocarbon exploration following the significant successes offshore Tanzania and Mozambique and onshore Kenya."

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/59915/upd…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.233.445 von motz1 am 12.08.13 19:29:36

Hi motz1,
was sagt uns das ???

Heute mal zwischendurch ein Statement zu dem Kurs von meiner Seite.
Es ist knapp 20:30 Uhr und wir haben einen Umsatz von 12,5 K.
Eigentlich ein Witz wenn man bedenkt welches potential AOI hat..
Es kann doch nicht sein, dass wir so falsch liegen und alle anderen so cool sind und glauben niedrigere Kurse zum Einstieg zu erhalten
fakt ist aber auch,trotz seeeehr guter Aussichten, das der Kurs seit Tagen nur eine Richtung kennt und die ist leider abwärts.
Momentan sitzt derzeit bei 7,47 CAN$ der Kurs auf der MA200.
Eine wichtige Unterstützungslinie.
Sollte heute nicht irgendwo ein käufer auftreten, werden wir darunter schließen. Der Trend ist schwach. Bei 7,42 CAN$ wird der SAR getroffen und der wird dann rot.
RSI liegt derzeit bei 52,94 und ist somit auch nicht weit von der Roten Seite entfernt.
Selbst der MACD triftet nach unten und liegt mit 0,135 zu 0,122 nnur noch 0,013 von der negativen Seite entfernt.
Slo STO triftet weiter nach unten und befindet sich derzeit bei 54,75 % Tendenz weiter fallend. Da ist zudem noch viel Luft nach unten.
MA 50 bei 7,33 bewegt sich unaufhörlich weiter auf die MA 200 bei 7,74 CAN$ zu. Wird noch ein paar Tage dauern, aber dann wird definitiv ein Kaufsignal generiert.
Sollte die der Fall sein kaufe ich mit meinem letzten Geld wieder zu und zwar Blind
Den Rest kann man getrost aussitzen.
da sieht man mal wieder, das Fakten, Realität und Börse unterschiedliche Sachen sind. Phantasie ist alles. Nur wann die wieder anspringt kann halt keiner sagen.
Gold zieht an. Silber zieht an. Beide waren schon tot gesagt.
Auch unser Baby wird andere Zeiten sehen. Man muß nur abwarten können.
Niki
PS: ich möchte mich ganz herzlich für die gute Arbeit bei motz1 und gimo und noch bei ein paar anderen bedanken. Die Recherchen sind das Eine. Das andere ist das Sie uns an Ihrem Wissen teilhaben lassen und das belebt dieses Board. Ebenso versuche ich mit meinem erarbeitetem Wissen hier einen Beitrag zu leisten. Ich denke, dass man kurzfristig immer mal wieder sehen muß wo wir stehen. Wie geschrieben sind die Fakten das eine, nur die Börse und das Verhalten der Menschen sind das andere. Hier versuche ich die Zeichen der Zeit (Chart) zu interpretieren. Langfristig sehe ich ungeahnte Chancen bei diesem Wert. wenn man dazu die Schwankungen ausnützen kann sind mehrere 100% Gewinn drin.
Dann noch einen schönen Abend und Kopf / Daumen hoch
Niki

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.234.045 von niki550525 am 12.08.13 21:00:30

Hi Niki,

danke für deinen Beitrag und die Chart-Sicht. Imho sind die Short-Bestände noch zu hoch als dass wir steigende Kurse sehen können.


Und sorry, ich wollte nicht in Rätseln sprechen.

Adigala ist der nord-östlichste Block den AOI hält, er liegt in Äthiopien an der Grenze zu Djibouti, südlich von Eritrea:


Eben aufgrund der Grenze zu Djibouti ist die Gegend ziemlich unsicher und es gab im Frühjahr von James Phillips die Aussage, dass AOI dort erst einmal keine Ausgaben tätigen wird bis die Situation klar ist.
Die Splittergruppe Ogaden National Front (ONF) ist dort aktiv und eben im Frühjahr auf sich aufmerksam gemacht.


Genel wird von Tony Hayward geleitet, er ist der frühere BP-Boss (der wegen dem Deepwater-Horizon-Desaster seinen Hut nehmen musste). Die Company hat er u.a. auf Kurdistan, Somalia und jetzt eben auch Äthiopien ausgerichtet.
Die melden das auch schon als perfekt (vorbehaltlich Regierungszustimmung):

"Genel Energy plc

12 August 2013

Genel Energy plc

("Genel Energy" or the "Company")

Genel Energy to farm in to Adigala Block onshore Ethiopia

Genel Energy announces that it has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in the Adigala Block onshore Ethiopia from New Age (African Global Energy) Limited (the "Transaction").

Under the Transaction, Genel Energy plc ("Genel") will acquire a 40% non-operated interest in the Adigala Block from New Age (Ethiopia) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of New Age (African Global Energy) Limited ("New Age"). The consideration involves a payment in respect of back costs and a contribution to the cost of a 2D seismic acquisition planned before the end of 2013.

The Adigala Block covers an area of c27,000km2 and is located in the northeast of Ethiopia, bordering Djibouti to the north and Somaliland to the east. An existing 520km of 2D seismic was reprocessed in 2012 and augmented by a Full Tensor Gravity survey. The integration of these data has provided evidence that all the elements of a working petroleum system exist on the Adigala Block. In particular, oil seeps and surface outcrops support the presence of a mature and active Jurassic oil prone system, which is thought to be analogous to the prolific producing Jurassic Rift Basins of Yemen. Several large potential structural closures have been identified on existing data. The planned 2D seismic and further technical work will help in refining these leads into drill ready prospects.

The Transaction is targeted for completion by September 2013 and is conditional upon government approval by the Ethiopian authorities.

Commenting on the transaction, Dr John Hurst, Head of Exploration said:
"The Adigala Block farm-in is a natural extension of our exploration strategy, which seeks to acquire material equity positions in hydrocarbon basins with significant potential, as well as complementing our extensive interests onshore Somaliland where drilling is planned for 2014. We look forward to working with our new partners to high-grade the prospectivity on the block and add further depth and materiality to our exploration inventory."

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/genel_energy1/rns/regulat…
und
http://www.genelenergy.com/operations/ethiopia.aspx


Es geht also mit 2D-Seismic noch in diesem Jahr weiter. Wenn ich mich richtig erinnere wollte AOI seinen Anteil auf 30% reduzieren, also könnten wir in naher Zukunft auch etwas von der Seite dazu hören.

Geologisch gesehen handelt es sich um sowohl Tertiary als auch Jurassic Plays.

Der Block gehörte ursprünglich zu 100% Lundin Petroleum, in der uns heute bekannten Ressourcenschätzung taucht er noch gar nicht auf...
Operatorship sollte eigentlich von AOI an New Age übertragen werden, wenn die nun aber nur noch 10% haben könnte sich das auch ändern.
Ein Rechenspiel dass sich aufdrängt wäre, dass AOI noch 20% an New Age abgibt und Genel Operator wird.

Wir werden sehen was da noch an Infos kommt .

[texas2]

Habe mir am WE ebenfalls die Tullow Veröffentlichungen rein gezogen
Am Rande: Angus McCoss hat da eine Breitseite gegen seinen ehemaligen Arbeitgeber Shell gefahren.
a) Shell hat erfolglos Loperot gebohrt und knapp daneben hat Tullow jetzt Etuko gefunden
b) Shell hat nach Meinung von Tullow die Südamerikabohrungen verbockt

Würde mich nicht wundern wenn Shell überlegt Tullow oder AOI zu übernehmen. Der Ex BP Mann wird sicher auch von seinen alten Kollegen genau beobachtet. Und wir wissen nicht was sich die NOCs so alles überlegen.

Bin sehr zuversichtlich für die weitere Exploration. Die Lundins kennen Jemen, Sudan; Tullow kennt Uganda und dazwischen liegt Kenia mit drei Treffern beim ersten Versuch.Ob es wirklich 4 Asse sind wissen wir noch nicht 100 %ig aber alles deutet darauf hin, dass wir vielleicht bei einer der Entdeckungen des Jahrzehnts dabei sind.

[sheriffxl]

Auch von mir mal ein Riesen-Dankeschön an motz1,gimo und nikki für Ihre tollen Beiträge,you did a great job!!

[harry099]

http://oilinkenya.co.ke/discussions-on-the-regional-oil-pipe…

[motz1]

Mal wieder ein möglicher zusätzlicher handfester Grund weshalb der Kurs derzeit nicht reagiert: Es scheint dass neues Kapital auf dem Weg ist...

................

Hearty issue
underway in Africa Oil



The oil company Africa Oil raking the path of a giant issue that could come as early as September. According to di.se want management to have any of the commodities industry's major players as the new owner.

Africa Oil's quest for black gold in East Africa is moving into a more intensive phase. If all goes according to plan, the six drilling rigs to be in operation by the end of the third quarter, twice as many as last spring.

The expansion is not free, and the company needs to bring in fresh capital.

According to di.se was Africa Oil's CEO Keith Hill recently in London to explore the interest of investors, particularly major oil companies.

"The main track for the company is to bring in money from one industrial investor. New issue of ordinary investors are reserve plan if they do not come in cases with an oil company, "says a source familiar with the process.

Management should sometime around the end of August and September, posting a new estimate of how much oil resources company.

According to industry sources di.se've talked to, it is most probable that Africa Oil carries out the issue in the near future after the resource update. This would then mean that the company picks new capital in September or October.

"The best time is probably just after the resource update, then it probably does not collide with any drilling results and other price-sensitive information," said Susanna Helgesen, commodities, equity analyst at investment bank Remium.

Big bank Exane BNP Paribas track in a recent analysis that Africa Oil will bring in 2.3 billion, equivalent to about a fifth of the market capitalization.

The exact amount varies between different analyzes but analysts agree that the company will make a new issue before the year is over, because the cashier would otherwise be empty sometime in the first quarter of 2014.

Last time Africa Oil picked the money was in late November 2012, through a private placement of 1.5 billion. Lundin family, which currently is the main shareholder, subscribed since 10 percent of the issue.

Lundin sphere spokesman Robert Eriksson says that Africa Oil currently has sufficient capital to fund drilling program throughout 2013 and well into next year.

"But it is clear that in the future we will bring in more capital, such is the nature. Given the success of our exploration has been, we know there will not be any trouble getting money," he says.

When to Africa Oil bring in money next time?
"It would be unwise to speculate on what time we will bring in money and the investors will be involved when we do it. Nothing is certain, "said Robert Eriksson.

http://www.di.se/artiklar/2013/8/12/rejal-nyemission-pa-gang…

[abionaut]

Ein fünftel ist ja mal 'ne Hausnummer. Wird das jetzt ein PP oder kauft sich ein Major ein? Hoffentlich gibt es nicht wieder so ein Kursdesaster wie November letzten Jahres. Doch der Sharepreis scheint so niedrig, dass das vielleicht schon eingepreist ist. Darum vielleicht auch die ganze Kursdrückerei. Ein bisschen Sorgen mache ich mir aber schon das die Kapitalisierung wieder zum Anlass genommen wird nachhaltig zu shorten.

Wie seht Ihr das?

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.245.597 von abionaut am 14.08.13 09:22:15

Wenn es ein PP wird, wird auch der Kurs verwässert und somit wird auch erstmal der Kurs nach unten gehen.
Auch die Shortis wollen Geld verdienen
Auch dies ist nur eine kurzfristige Situation die den Kurs beeinflussen wird.

Gestern mal wieder ein höherer Umsatz mit 416 K.
Meine Annahme hatte sich gestern bestätigt. MA200 bei 7,46 CAN$ konnte nicht gehalten werden. Der Kurs ist dann bis auf 7,31 CAN$ gerutscht.
Positiv ist,
- dass wir nicht auf Tagestief geschlossen haben.
- das dass GAP nun wie erwartet geschlossen wurde.
- das MA50 bei 7,32 CAN$ gehalten hat
Negativ ist,
- RSI ist unter 50% gefallen (49,25)
- SAR nun auf Rot steht
- der Slow STO weiter auf sinkflug ist.

Ausblick,
ich denke das der Kurs weiter nach unten gereicht wird.
Nächstes Ziel ist 7,01 CAN$. Hier ist noch ein kleines offenes GAP das auch noch geschlossen werden will.
Bei 7,00 CAN$ ist dann auch eine grössere Widerstandslinie. Von hier aus könnte der Kurs dann wieder nach oben drehen.
Könnte zeitlich ganz gut mit dem Kreuzen der MA200 und MA50 zusammenpassen.
MA200 bei 7,46, MA50 bei 7,36 CAN$.

Wer noch Aktien von AOI braucht, sollte sich bei 7,01 CAN$ auf die Lauer legen. Da könnte noch was gehen
Niki

[niki550525]

Da sieht man mal wieder wie der Kurs manipuliert werden kann.
Mitz einem Volumen von 14,1K zum jetztigen Zeitpunkt von 21:08 Uhr hält sich der Kurs mit 7,48CAN$ über der MA200.
Der RSI ist zumindest mal auf 52% geprungen.
Was der Kurs erst macht, wenn mal so richtig Umsätze reinkommen, allerdings mehrere Tage nacheinander, kann sich jeder so richtig ausmalen. Das derzeit hier Trader am Werk sind ist klar zu erkennen.
Der Trend ist nicht stabil. Die nächsten Tage werden zeigen wo die Reise hingeht.
Die Chance, das es so eintrifft wie ich um 9:00 Uhr geschrieben hatte stehen m.E bei 50%
Niki

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.252.349 von niki550525 am 14.08.13 21:13:24

Hab grad ein wenig Zeit und stelle mal wieder was rein für die neue Woche)
Am Freitag wurde zum Schluß dann doch noch ein wenig auf's Gas gedrückt.
Der Umsatz mit 301K ist das was wir brauchen
Leider sind sind derzeit mehr auf der Verkäuferseite. Ist nicht verwunderlich da wir im Gleichklang mit Gold und Silber laufen und die hat's am Freitag auch gebeutelt.
Traurig zu sehen, dass die letzten Neuigkeiten vollkommen verpufft sind.
Rohstoffe werden auch noch weiterhin gehandelt wie "rohe Eier" -> keiner will sie so wirklich haben.Ich gebe die Hoffnung nicht auf, dass auch dieses Segment im Herbst "Wiederentdeckt" wird. Bis dahin macht es keine Freude Tagtäglich den Kurs zu beobachten
Die Indikatoren deuten weiter Ungemach an, so wie ich ja schon beschrieben hatte.
- RSI nun doch unter 50% gerutscht und liegt bei 45,15%
- MACD ist 3 Handelstagen im roten Bereich
- SAR seit 4 Handelstagen im roten Bereich
- Slow STO 9 Handelstagen im Roten Bereich bei nunmehr 18,99%
- Der Kurs hat am Freitag unter der MA(50) geschlossen, was nicht gut ist.
Hat zwar nicht am Tagestief geschossen, aber 1 Cent höher hilft da auch
nicht viel.
- ..und nun zu guter Letzt: Der MA50 kippt nach unten.Eine Kreuzug mit MA200
kann nur dann erfolgen, wenn auch der Kurs wieder nach oben dreht.
Soweit die schlechte Nachricht.
Der Slow STO ist mit knapp 19% schon weit unten und könnte demnächst drehen.
Erfreulich wäre da, dass wir das GAP noch vorher schließen.Das wären dann noch 0,22 CAN$ die wir nach unten benötigen würden. Denke das bekommen die Trader noch hin
Ich von meiner Seite habe mich jedenfalls auf die Lauer gelegt und hoffe, dass mein Limit erreicht wird.Bei der Zukunftsaussicht kaufe ich zu diesen Kursen gerne zu. Dh. soweit ich flüssig bin, werde ich weiterhin zukaufen.
Es gibt ein gutes Sprichwort hierzu: " Es gibt nichts Schlechtes, dass nicht auch einen Vorteil hat". Man muß ihn nur finden
Auf eine gute Handelswoche. Kopf und Daumen hoch...
Niki

[niki550525]

So, mein angepeiltes Ziel ist fast erreicht. Denke es geht heute noch etwas weiter zurück, damit das GAP vollständig geschlossen wird.
Das sind nun schon 3 Tage mit Verlust und dadurch 3x rote Kerzen in Folge.In der Regel müsste nun heute oder morgen eine Weisse Kerze folgen.
Dh. ein Kursrücksetzter und Schlußkurs auf Tageshoch.
Schlußkurs sollte dann aber in jedem Fall über 7,01 CAN$ sein. Hält dieser nicht, dann ist ein kleiner Widerstand bei 6,80 CAN$.
Slow STO liegt nun bei 9,18%.

Mal sehen was da so kommt. Bisher hat es ja ganz gut gepasst :-)
Niki

[gabbo62]

http://www.trust.org/item/20130819172512-7u1kr

Kenya signs infrastructure, energy deals worth ${esc.dollar}5 bln with ChinaSource: Reuters - Mon, 19 Aug 2013 07:03 PM

Author: Reuters

NAIROBI, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Kenya signed deals worth $5 billion with China on Monday to construct a railway line and an energy project, deepening ties with the Asian country keen to expand investment in Africa.

The cash would be spent on energy projects, a standard gauge railway linking the port of Mombasa in east Africa's biggest economy to its border town of Malaba, meant to provide faster access from Kenya's port to markets in the region, the presidency's media service said in a statement on Monday.

The rest would be used to improve wildlife protection, in a country where well armed criminal gangs have killed elephants for tusks and rhinos for their horns that are often shipped mainly to China for use in ornaments and medicines.

It was not specified whether the cash was a loan or grant, or whether this was all new money or part of a previously negotiated but unannounced package.

The deals were agreed in Beijing after talks by Kenya's new President Uhuru Kenyatta and President Xi Jinping. Kenyatta is on a state visit to China scheduled from Sunday to Friday.

During his first visit to Africa in March, Xi pledged to help the continent develop, responding to concerns that China is only interested in shipping out the continent's raw materials.

China is already key player in Kenya, constructing capital-intensive flagship projects, mostly roads.

Kenyatta's visit follows a promise he made during the presidential election campaigns preceding the March 4 vote.

He vowed to work closely with China following comments by United States, Britain and some European officials who said they would limit contacts with Kenyatta should he win owing to his indictment for crimes against humanity at The Hague.

Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto both face trial at the International Criminal Court for helping orchestrate the bloodshed that followed the disputed 2007 election. They both deny the accusations, and pledged to clear their names.

On Monday, Xi said China supports Kenya's quest for industrialization and plans to host a clearing house for the Chinese renminbi currency in Nairobi, as part of Kenya's plans to become an international financial hub.

Kenyatta urged China to invest in Kenya's newly discovered oil sector, power generation, a technology city near the capital city and a new port in Lamu, north of Mombasa.

The $25.5 billion Lamu project would link landlocked South Sudan and Ethiopia to the Indian Ocean port of Lamu by constructing a major highway, a railway and an oil pipeline. (Writing by James Macharia; editing by Ron Askew)

[niki550525]

SCHNÄPPCHENTAG !!!!!
So ich habe meine Stücke in Trade Gate eingesackt :-)
Gestern Abend vor Handelsschluß in Schweden gab es einige auffällige Trades.
Obwohl der aktuelle Kurs so um die 44SK = 5,13€ gehandelt wurden, hat jemand grössere Mengen zu wesentlich höheren Kursen gekauft
17:39 Uhr - 20.000 Stück - 48,35 SK = 5,562€
17:39 Uhr - 20.000 Stück - 20,01 SK = 5,753€
Da wollte wohl jemand sicher gehen, dass eine grössere Menge in Depot wandert.
Bin ja mal gespannt was der Kurs heute so macht.
Langfristig keine Frage. Bei dem News Flow im Herbst können wir über diese Kurse nur noch schmunzeln :-)
Niki

[niki550525]

Korrektur: 17:39 Uhr - 20.000 Stück - 50,01 SK = 5,753€

So wie es aussieht werden wir heute in Kanada bei 6,96 CAN$ eröffnen.
Damit ist auf alle Fälle das Aufwärtsgap geschlossen.
Hoffe das dann gut ist und die Holzfäller den Kurs wieder nach oben ziehen.
Niki

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.285.509 von niki550525 am 20.08.13 14:34:58

das ding hat gesessen, ansage mit der präzision eines schweizer uhrwerks, jetzt muss nur noch der kurs steigen!

[nicolani]

geradezu vorbildlich wie aoi das gap-close betrieben hat, doppelt genäht hält besser, und nun kann's aufwärts gehen, uns allen ein kräftiges "kurs auf"!!!

[nicolani]

und ab jetzt sollten auch die letzten zweifler überzeugt sein!!!

[niki550525]

Tja, jetzt haben wir heute mit einem GAP ( 7,06 - 7,00 CAN$) eröffnet.
Slow STO ist nun bei 3,69% viel geht da nicht mehr.
Nächster Widerstand liegt nun bei 6,80 CAN$
In Schweden sind nun schon 727444 Stück umgesetzt worden. Bei 43,30 SK waren heute nachmittag ein Block mit 100K. Dieser wurd fast gänzlich bedient.Eine menge Verkäufer gibt es jetzt erst wieder bei 43,50SK ( 35K) Und zum Handelsschluß gingen schöne tausender Blöcke über den Tisch (insges. 35K)
Seit 17:30 Uhr wird der Kurs nun über Kanada gesteuert. Lassen wir uns mal überraschen was die Holzfäller heute noch so treiben.
Denke das wir morgen noch etwas tiefer gehen könnten und 6,80 CAN$ antesten. Dann ist der Slow STO so richtig am Boden und eine Erhölung ist dann unvermeindlich.
Wer jetz noch mit dem Gedanken spielt einzusammeln, sollte es bald tun :-)
Kopf und Daumen hoch, es wird schon
Niki

[nicolani]

jo und jetzt nochmal unter 6,90 gekauft, das muss reichen!!

[nicolani]

jo war aber auch so zu erwarten, nur tlw darf news verabreichen, also freut euch auf morgen!!

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.289.173 von nicolani am 20.08.13 21:24:37

Jepp, auch nochmal zugeschlagen und zu 5,017 bekommen
Konnte nicht umhin und habe jetzt auch noch meine anderen Aktien losgeschlagen um hier noch weiter aufzustocken.
Niki

[niki550525]

Schon verrückt, da gehen so gegen 13:40 Uhr in Schweden schlappe 80 K über den Tisch und der Kurs macht keinen Ruck :-(
So wie es aussieht werden wir in Kanada bei ca. 6,80 - 6,85 CAN$ eröffnen.
Wie schon geschrieben ist der Slow STO bei 4,32% und der RSI bei 36,34%
Bisher war bei 30% oder kurz vorher immer wieder der Wendepunkt.
Genau so sieht es beim Slow STO aus. Auch hier war bisher (4x in 2013) der Wendpunkt bei ca 10%
Dh. für mich das entweder heute oder morgen der Kurs wieder nach oben muß !
Und wenn Du denkst es geht nicht mehr, kommt von irgendwo ein Lichtlein her....
Mal sehen was die Holzfäller daraus machen
Niki

[niki550525]

Tja, hat sich dann gestern auch so eingestellt wie ich es vermutet hatte.
Im Verhältnis der letzten Tage war der Umsatz in Kanada auch wieder gut.
Anfangs recht schwach und am Schluß dann noch gut zugelegt.Insgesamt 407,6K.
MA200 und MA50 wandern paralell nach unten mit einem Abstand von 0,10 CAN$.
SloSTO zeigt erste Anzeichen einer Trendumkehr. Bei 2,24 ist das auch nicht anders zu erwarten. Viel tiefer geht's ja nun nicht mehr.
RSI ist mit 34,96% vom Absinken in die Waagrechte gewechselt.
Der Kursrückgang hat sich verlangsamt.
Also man muß nun kein Hellseher sein um zu sehen, dass der Trend wechseln wird.
Maximales Risiko liegt bei 6,60 CAN$. Hier gibt es eine massive Unterstützung. Denke aber nicht das wir das sehen werden.
Eine weisse Kerze wäre heute schön und würde meine Vermutung untermauern.
Soweit zur Charttechnik.
Fundamental ist alles in bester Ordnung. Scheinbar haben viele vergessen auf was AOI sitz und was die Zukunft so bringen kann.
Von daher kann ich mit meinem Stock ganz gut schlafen und freu mich schon auf höhere Kurse die wir sicher sehen werden.
Niki

[gabbo62]

Wie zu befürchten war, nutzt die Drecksbande von Shorter in der nachrichtenlose Zeit die Gunst der Stunde. Ich gehe davon aus, dass wir bis Monatsende noch unter 6,50 CAD gedrückt werden.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
739,233 15/Aug/2013
584,406 31/Jul/2013
533,246 15/Jul/2013

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[gimo211]

... So ärgerlich das current trading und das Anwachsen des Short-Bestandes auch ist...

Letztlich zählt hier das "Big Picture"...

In 2-3 Jahren ist das Trading der letzten 12 Monate eine vollkommen irrelevante "Rand-Notiz" im Chart. Wenn der Kurs jetzt noch niedrig bleibt, ergeben sich Zukaufs-Chancen. Das ist das Gute an der Situation...

Ich habe für mich entschieden, keine Aktie zu traden - zu groß ist das Risiko, dass Lukas Lundin oder Keith Hill mit einer "unerwarteten" Überraschung um die Ecke kommen... Es gibt inzwischen Gerüchte um ein signifikantes farmout an CNOOC... Vielleicht gibt es ja auch ein "Merger" mit ShaMaran... (Das ist zwar sehr abstrakt gedacht, aber vollkommen ausgeschlossen ist es allein deshalb nicht, da es für die Lundins Sinn machen könnte...).

Als wir Investoren der ersten Stunde hier eingestiegen sind, hatte die Company eine MK von über 300 Mio. C$ und nur eine "gute Hoffnung", dass die Theorie zum East Africa Rift System aufgehen wird... Da stehen wir heute ganz anders da...

for now a waiting game... Und die Freude über viele gute News in den nächsten Monaten und Jahren...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.299.607 von gimo211 am 22.08.13 09:00:59

Hi gimo211,
das mit den Shortbeständen ist nur eine Bestätigung der Kursveräufe in der Vergangenheit. Es ist eben auch eine art Geld zu verdienen. Wenn der Chart anzeigt dass es nach unten geht, erhöhen sich halt die Shortbestände.
In 14 Tagen wird man dann sehen können, das ab heute wieder eingedeckt wird.

Wie Du schon schreibst ist das in Hinblick auf 2-3 Jahre nur ein leichter knick in dem Chartverlauf.
Die Gerüchte um ein farmout kenne ich auch.Logisch betrachtet wäre es mehr als dumm zu diesem Zeitpunkt sowas durchzuführen. Es macht mehr sinn und so kenn ich die Lundis, dies zu tun, wenn wesentlich mehr Oil gefunden wurde.
Die Lundis wollen mit AOI Geld verdienen und das so richtg
Deshalb sehe ich das als günstige Gelegenheit um nochmal einen Nachschlag zu nehmen
Niki

[nicolani]

ja natürlich sind da shorter am werk, aber wehe dem es kommt eine meldung von tlw, dann wird's aber auch einen schönen shortsqueeze geben und wir stehen danach mal 50% höher, also stillhalten und geduldig sein!

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.301.423 von nicolani am 22.08.13 11:41:18

Wenn natürlich viele Short sind, versuchen diese den Kurs zu beeinflussen. Es ist um so leichter, je weniger Interesse an der Aktie ist und wenn der Chart darauf hin deutet, das es mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit mit dem Kurs nach unten geht.Das ist dann auch eine selbsterfüllende Prophezeihung.
Wenn es sich dann andeutet, das eine Trendumkehr stattfindet, müssen sich die Kameraden wieder eindecken um nicht in den Verlust zu laufen und das kann dann bei gleichzeitiger guten Meldung, einen kräftigen schub nach oben geben.Da gebe ich Dir mal voll Recht.
Nun ist es aber so, das Rohstoffaktien momentan nicht so der Brüller sind.
Das soll heissen, dass die Großen Investoren die Ihr Depot auch ausweisen in Rohstoffaktien nur gering oder garnicht investiert sind.
Das bedeutet aber wiederum einen höheren free Float, den keiner so will und dies obwohl die Fundamentaldaten gut bis sehr gut sind.
Wenn Du Dich noch errinnern kannst sind die letzten beiden sehr guten Nachrichten anfänglich gut aufgenommen worden und dann aber wieder verpufft.
Somit wird mit den 50% so schnell nichts
M.E. wird sich das im Herbst aber wieder ändern. Da werden die Anleger hoffentlich wieder normal denken und sehen welches Potential unser Baby so hat.
Wie schon geschrieben, sehe ich mit dem Kurs mittel bis langfristig ein riesen Potential. Nur jetzt momentan nicht.
Was mir momentan in Schweden so auffällt ist, das immer wieder Blöcke um die 100K auftauchen, die auch irgendwann bedient werden. Das würde dafür sprechen, das jemand einsammelt, aber nicht um jeden Preis und der Kurs wird zudem nach unten gezogen. Diese Menge sind nicht durch Shortis beeinflußt, sondern von Investoren die sich langfristig hier einkaufen.
....und die machen das nicht schlecht
So dann wollen wir mal sehen wie heute der Test der 6,80 CAN$ ausgeht
Niki

[niki550525]

Na wenn das keine Absicht / Zufall war ?
der Kurs hat heute genau bei 6,80 CAN$ aufgesetzt und im Anschluss nach oben gedreht.
Zur Ergänzung was ich um 13:00 Uhr geschrieben habe möchte ich noch folgendes hinzufügen:
Shortis haben zudem noch eine besondere Taktik. Es werden "wilde" Gerüchte gestreut um die Leute zu verunsichern.
In unserem Falle wurde ein Gerücht gestreut,bei dem man vermutet werden kann das es in Bälde zu einer Kapitalerhöhung kommen soll. Das wiederum verunsichert die Kapitalanleger ungemein und ist in der Regel ja auch nicht ganz von der Hand zu weisen, wenn man sich hier nicht so gut auskennt.
Dadurch werden natürlich die schwachen Hände aus der Aktie gedrängt.
Starke Hände nehmen diese natürlich dankend auf und die Shortis freuen sich auf einen satten Kursrückgang.
War immer schon so und wird auch immer so sein......das ist eben Börse und unwissende fallen immer wieder darauf herein.
Zur Charttechnik:
Wie vorhergesagt dreht nun der Kurs nach oben. In Schweden waren es knapp 1 Mio Aktien die Umgesetzt worden sind. Daher macht sich Kanada gerade mickrig aus mit seinen derzeit 78,5 K (Stand 19:38 Uhr)
Aber der Chart funktioniert, wie ich ja hier die letzten Tage aufgezeigt habe.
Übrigens liegen nun die beiden MA's nur noch 9 Cent auseinander.
Slow STO ist schon im grünen Bereich und RSI hat auch gedreht und entfernt sich vom Tiefpunkt.
Wäre noch schön wenn der Umsatz bis Handelsschluß noch anziehen würde.
Wenn ich Shorti wäre, würde ich mich jetzt wieder eindecken- Billiger wirds nimmer- reimt sich und was sich reimt ist Gut :-)
Tja, wie ich schon sagte Kopf und Daumen hoch, es wird schon wieder:-)
Niki

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.305.919 von niki550525 am 22.08.13 19:45:07

Ich komme mir schon langsam vor wie ein Alleinunterhalter
Sieht so aus als ob die Gerüchte um eine Kapitalerhöhung "Früchte" tragen
Hier mal meine Einschätzung zum Chart:
Noch ist ja nicht Feierabend, aber Tendenzen zeichnen sich schon ab.
17:00 Uhr
In Schweden schon 950 K umgesetzt und in Kanada 69 K
Die gestrige schwarze Kerze hat schon Ungemach angezeigt. Zudem wurde der Widerstand bei 7,00 CAN$ zwar überschritten aber zum Schlußkurs nicht gehalten.
Heute dann das Ergebnis mit derzeit -3,44% und -0,24 CAN$
Die Indikatoren haben wieder ins Negative gedreht. Somit könnte dann doch noch die 6,60 CAN$ getestet werden.
Tendiere dann mal auf eine Seitwärtsbewegung im Range von 6,60 bis 7,00 CAN$.
Solange keine Kursrelevanten Daten gebracht werden wird sich hier an der negativen Einstellung der Anleger nichts ändern.
Da kann man nur hoffen das dann die 6,60 CAN$ halten werden, ansonsten kann es dann bis zum nächsten Widerstand bei 6,40 CAN$ zurückgehen.
Niki

[sheriffxl]

Und dabei steigt der Ölpreis wie Sau,hätte vieleicht doch total auf Gold-und Silberminer umschichten sollen.

[niki550525]

Hallo @,
heute mal wieder was von der Chartseite da gestern ein neues Signal kreiert wurde das ich euch nicht vorenthalten will:
Aufgrund der Chartkonstellation ist die Empfehlung für heute, SHORT . Die Stop-Loss-bearish Muster erhielt eine Bestätigung, weil der Preise die Stop-Loss-Niveau überquerte, das bei 6,8100 war. Die bisherige BUY Empfehlung wurde am 22.08.2013 erteilt.Gestriger Schlußkurs lag bei 6,69 CAN$. Weiteres Rückschlagspotential liegt bei 6,50 CAN$.Dort befindet sich eine massive Widerstandslinie. Ist also überschaubar.
Der Slow STO hat gestern wieder ins Minus gedreht und liegt bei 9,20 zu 12,27 %. Kann also durchaus noch etwas nach unten gehen.
Positiv ist, dass sich bei 6,80 CAN$ bis 6,95 CAN$ ein Abwärtsgap befindet das ja mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 80%-90% wieder geschlossen werden will. Wer also nachkaufen will, kann sich bei ca. 6,50 CAN$ nochmal auf die Lauer legen.
Ach ja, 6,50 CAN$ wäre wünschenswert, da sich dann eine "W"- Formation ausbildet im einem Aufwärtspotential bis knapp 8 CAN$.
Niki

[gabbo62]

Africa Oil Second Quarter of 2013 Financial and Operating Results

http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oi…

August 28, 2013 (AOI – TSXV, AOI - NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil”, “the Company” or “AOC”) is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013.

On the back of the successful exploration activities in Kenya during 2012, the Company, together with its partners, continues to ramp up its exploration program in Kenya and Ethiopia. Entering the year, two Tullow-Africa Oil joint venture rigs were operating in Kenya and one joint venture rig was operating in Ethiopia. A fourth Tullow-Africa Oil joint venture rig has been secured and is expected to commence testing and drilling operations in Kenya on Blocks 10BB and 13T during October 2013. The Company, as operator, and its partner in Block 9 (Kenya) have secured a fifth rig, which will commence drilling operations in September 2013. In addition, the Company and its partners in Block 7/8 (Ethiopia) have secured a sixth rig, which will commence drilling operations in September 2013. For a period, the Company will have six drilling rigs operating and expects to exit the year with five rigs operating in the region. The Company plans to have drilled ten exploration wells and to have tested four wells across its exploration blocks during 2013.

During the first half of the year, the Company completed a series of well tests at both Twiga South-1 and Ngamia-1 on Blocks 13T and 10BB in Kenya, respectively. These successful well tests confirmed over 5,000 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) flow potential per well and a doubling of our previous estimates of net oil pay. Ekales-1, the next exploration well in the Basin Bounding Fault Play and on trend with Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1, commenced drilling in July. Transient Pressure Analysis has been conducted on the Twiga South-1 and Ngamia-1 well tests. No pressure depletion was recorded over the duration of the tests. Flow periods ranged from 0.5 to 2.5 days and build up periods ranged between 3 to 12 days.

Upon completing testing operations at Ngamia-1 in Block 10BB, the Weatherford 804 rig mobilized to the Ekales-1 well in Block 13T. The Ekales prospect is located on the main basin bounding fault midway between the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 discoveries and is targeting the same formations that were productive in these discoveries. The well spud in July and is expected to be completed around end September.

In July, the Company announced a new major oil discovery at Etuko-1. Etuko-1 is located 14 kilometers east of Twiga South-1 in Block 10BB and is the first test of the Basin Flank Play in the eastern part of the Basin. The well encountered approximately 40 meters of net oil pay in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokhone targets and approximately 50 meters of additional potential net pay in the Lower Lokhone interval. The well will be tested later in the year.

In July, the Company reported that the Sabisa-1 well on the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, the most northerly well drilled on the Tertiary rift trend to date, had confirmed a viable hydrocarbon system with oil and heavy gas shows. Based on the encouragement of the results, the decision was made to drill the Tultule-1 as the next well on the South Omo Block. This well is expected to spud around the end August.

In the first quarter of 2013, the Company and its operating partners on Block 10A completed drilling the Paipai-1 exploration well. The Paipai-1 well tested a large four-way closed structure with Cretaceous-age sandstone targets at multiple depths. Paipai-1 spudded in September 2012 and completed drilling in the first quarter of 2013 to a total depth of 4,255 meters. Light hydrocarbons were encountered while drilling a 55 meter thick gross sandstone interval. Attempts to sample the reservoir fluid were unsuccessful and the hydrocarbons encountered while drilling were not recovered to surface. The Company and its partners were unable to test the well at the time due to the unavailability, in country, of testing equipment capable of handling the higher reservoir pressures encountered at this depth. As a result, the well has been temporarily suspended pending further data evaluation.


The Company and its partner on Block 9 are currently planning to drill one exploration well in 2013. Block 9 is in the Cretaceous rift basin on trend with the South Sudan oil fields and the play concept was confirmed by the recent Paipai-1 well drilled in Block 10A. Two major prospects, Bahasi-1 and Sala-1, with large volume potential have been identified. The Company, as operator, and its partners in Block 9 have completed construction of the access road and well site for the Bahasi-1 exploration well. The Greatwall GW190 rig has commenced mobilization to site and the well is expected to spud in September.


The Company and its partners continue to focus on the El Kuran oil accumulation on Block 8, discovered in the early 1970’s. After completing reservoir characterization studies, the Company focused efforts on testing and completion strategies for producing commercial quantities of oil and gas. The Company and its joint operating partners on Blocks 7/8 (New Age operated) are planning to drill and test the El Kuran-3 appraisal well. The well site has been constructed, erection of the rig is ongoing at site and the well is expected to spud in September 2013.


The Company continues to actively acquire, process and interpret 2D seismic over Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 12A, 13T and South Omo. In addition, the Company and its partner in Blocks 10BB and 13T will mobilize a 3D seismic crew to complete a 550 square kilometer 3D seismic survey over the Ngamia and Twiga structures later in 2013.


In first quarter of 2013, the Company executed a PSC for the Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia. Located north of the South Omo Block, the Rift Basin Area covers 42,519 square kilometers. This block is on trend with highly prospective blocks in the Tertiary rift valley including the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, and Kenyan Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 13T, and 12A. The Company commenced acquiring a Full Tensor Gradiometry survey in May 2013, which is approximately 70% complete, and is conducting an exhaustive environmental and social impact assessment over the block in preparation for a seismic program in 2014.


Africa Oil ended the quarter in a strong financial position with cash of $179.5 million and working capital of $141.2 million.

Keith Hill, President and CEO, commented, “Africa Oil is very encouraged with the results of our first three exploration wells in the Lokichar basin. Our fully funded 2013 work program is focused on drilling and testing multiple wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya in an effort to reach commercial thresholds and on drilling multiple potential basin-opening wells across its vast East African exploration acreage.”


Operating expenses increased $3.8 million for the three months ended June 30, 2013 compared to the prior year due mainly to an increase of $6.5 million in stock-based compensation relating to the 5,673,500 options granted in the current period. The increase was offset partially by a decrease of $3.1 million in professional fees due to finder fees paid in shares during the second quarter of 2012. The remaining $0.4 million increase can be attributed to increased salary and travel related costs associated with increased headcount and operational activity.



Operating expenses increased $1.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2013 compared to the prior year due mainly to an increase of $6.6 million in stock-based compensation relating to the 5,673,500 options granted in the current period. The increase was offset by a decrease of $3.2 million in professional fees due to finder fees paid in shares and $3.1 million in impairment of intangible exploration assets relating to the abandonment of Blocks 7 and 11 in Mali during the prior period. The remaining $0.8 million increase can be attributed to increased salary and travel related costs associated with increased headcount and operational activity.

Financial income and expense is made up of the following items:

The loss on revaluation of marketable securities is the result of a decrease in the value of 10 million shares held in Encanto Potash Corp which were acquired as part of the acquisition of Lion. These shares were sold during the first quarter of 2012.

At June 30, 2013, nil warrants were outstanding in AOC and 53.4 million warrants were outstanding in Horn. AOC holds 13.3 million of the warrants outstanding in Horn. The Company recorded a $0.2 million gain on the revaluation of warrants for the three months ended June 30, 2013 and a $2.9 million gain for the six months ended June 30, 2013, due to a reduction in the volatility of the shares of Horn combined with a reduction in the remaining life of the warrants. The Company will incur fair market value adjustments on the Horn warrants until they are exercised or they expire (43,868,527 expire September 20, 2013, 9,375,000 expire June 8, 2014, 156,248 expire June 11, 2014, and 15,000 expire June 18, 2014).

Interest income increased in the first six months of 2013 due to a significant increase in cash late in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a result of cash received from the non-brokered private placement in December of 2012.

The foreign exchange gains and losses are the direct result of changes in the value of the Canadian dollar in comparison to the US dollar. The Company’s cash holdings are primarily in US and Canadian currency.


Consolidated Balance Sheets

(Thousands United States Dollars)

The increase in total assets from December 31, 2012 to June 30, 2013 is primarily attributable to intangible asset expenditures incurred during the quarter in Kenya, Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia).


Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

(Thousands United States Dollars)

The decrease in cash for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013 is mainly the result of intangible exploration expenditures and cash-based operating expenses.




Consolidated Statement of Equity

(Thousands United States Dollars)
The Company’s consolidated financial statements, notes to the financial statements, management’s discussion and analysis for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013 and the 2012 Annual Information Form have been filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and are available on the Company’s website (www.africaoilcorp.com).

Outlook

The Company is significantly increasing the pace of exploration. For a period during the last half of the year, the Company will have six drilling rigs operating and expects to exit the year with five rigs operating.

The Ngamia-1, Twiga South-1 and Etuko-1 light oil discoveries in the Lokichar sub-basin, combined with positive results from reservoir analysis and flow rate tests at Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1, has led to a significant increase in the pace of exploration focused on tertiary rift basins. The Company and its joint venture partners in the tertiary rift play in east Africa plan to have four rigs operating by the end of 2013. The near term focus of these rigs is to continue drilling and testing wells in the Lokichar sub-basin in Kenya with improved efficiencies in an effort to continue building its contingent resource base, and to drill potential basin-opening wells in the Turkana, Chew Bahir, and Kerio basins in the tertiary rift play within Kenya and Ethiopia. Resources discovered to date are of a scale that the Tullow-Africa Oil joint venture partnership will initiate discussions with the Government of Kenya and other relevant stakeholders to consider development options. These discussions include consideration of a “start-up phase” oil production system with potential to deliver significant production rates with oil export via road or rail in advance of a full-scale pipeline development. The Company and its partners will continue to acquire seismic data throughout the tertiary rift in Kenya and Ethiopia in an effort to add to its existing portfolio of drill-ready prospects.

The Company and its operating partner in Block 9 in Kenya are currently mobilizing Greatwall GW190 rig to drill the Bahasi-1 exploratory well. This well which is planned to spud in September will be drilled on a large anticlinal structure targeting tertiary and cretaceous sandstones where six billion barrels of oil was discovered along trend in Sudan in a similar geologic setting. A follow-up well is also being considered in early 2014 in Block 9. The Company and its operating partners in Blocks 7/8 in Ethiopia are currently mobilizing a rig to drill a well to appraise reservoir characteristics of Jurassic carbonates on the El Kuran oil accumulation. The main focus of this well which is expected to spud in September, is to establish commercial rates with acidizing, fraccing and horizontal sidetracks being considered.

Based on the encouragement provided by the Shabeel wells, the Company and its partners entered the next exploration period in both the Dharoor Valley and Nugaal Valley PSAs which carry a commitment to drill one well in each block within an additional three year term ending October 2015. The current operational plan is to contract a seismic crew to acquire additional data in the Dharoor Valley block and to hold discussions with the Puntland Government regarding drill ready prospects in the Nugaal Valley block. The focus of the Dharoor Valley block seismic program will be to delineate new structural prospects for the upcoming drilling campaign. Horn has been in discussion with potential joint venture partners and is reviewing new venture opportunities in the region.

Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through its 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East African holdings are in within a world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 250,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. Two new significant discoveries have been announced in the Lokichar basin in which the Company holds a 50% interest along with operator Tullow Oil plc. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".

[nicolani]

alles schön und gut, aber die cash-burn-rate ist schon enorm, da müsste jetzt mal eine produktion her, um cash-flow zu generieren!

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.335.431 von niki550525 am 27.08.13 17:12:18

hier hat city seine sicht auf aoi noch einmal zusammengefasst

https://ir.citi.com/%2B6P7O9BqQ2rm%2FpVahD0blw3V3pgCcdArJ8Vc…

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.346.533 von niki550525 am 29.08.13 07:20:20

Ja, so schnell kann es gehen: Gestern Morgen noch ein Verkaufssignal und heute Morgen dann ein Kaufsignal
Da nun gestern in Kanada BULLISH Doji Star erzeugt wurde ist heute die Empfehlung , KAUFEN .
Neben dem bullisch Doji Candelstick hat zugleich der RSI und der Slow STO gedreht.
Nun etwas zum Handelsverlauf:
Der erste Kurs in Kanada hat mit einem riesen GAP geöffnet, was für einen weiteren Kursverlauf sehr nachträglich ist.
Obwohl in Schweden bis 17:30 etwas über 1 Mio Aktien umgesetzt worden sind, konnte man gut erkennen, das in Canada 36.000 Aktien genügten, dass der Kurs wieder nach unten gedrückt werden konnte.Mit dann 189 K in Kanada wurde dann der Kurs wieder bis Handelsschluß eingestellt, der auch in Schweden als Handelsschluß ausgegeben wurde
Somit wurde das offene GAP in Kanada bilderbuchmäßig geschlossen und ein weiterer Kursanstieg steht nichts mehr im Wege.
Somit ist die nächste Hürde 7,19 CAN$ das wir gestern auch fast erreicht hatten. Da der Ölpreis steigt, oder sich auch zumindest im 3 Monatshoch befindet müsste dies vorerst auch genügend Auftrieb geben.
RSI sollte den Anstieg über 50% in den nächsten Tagen schaffen um den Kurs weiter zu stabilisieren.
Dann noch einen schönes WE
Niki

[nicolani]

ja und in kanada versuchen irgendwelche finger mit kleinen stückzahlen den kurs zu drücken! und das mit erfolg! aber der tag kommt, wir werden die grillhölle erleben, der tag ist nicht mehr fern!

[Assegai]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.359.713 von nicolani am 30.08.13 19:59:00

Mann, oh Mann, was für ein Geschwalle! Du musst doch langsam merken, dass niemand auf deine Sinnlos-Kommentare reagiert und alle nur darauf warten, dass du endlich woanders die Leute beglückst. Erst dann beginnt hier wieder die anspruchsvollere Diskussion.
Also, tu dir uns uns allen einen Gefallen und such dir eine andere Aktie aus - spielt doch eh keine Rolle, da deine inhaltsleeren Kommentare überall hin passen. Allein schon die Wortwahl "Kurs drücken", "Grillhölle":
O sancta simplicitas!

Gruß
Assegai

[texas2]

Exxon und die staatliche Ölfirma aus Kuwait steigen im Sudan ein (OMV hat sich leider vor ein paar Jahren durch eine kleine Gruppe Protestierer vor dem OMV Eingangstor in Wien so erschrecken lassen, dass sie sich aus dem Sudan zurückgezogen haben)
Die indische staatliche Ölfirma denkt laut über Ölfelder in Ostafrika nach.
Eigentlich alles gute Nachrichten für AOI

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.361.677 von texas2 am 31.08.13 12:04:27

Earlier this week, about 20 of them met outside Africa Oil's downtown Vancouver office. Photographs in a Somali newspaper called Abyan Media show the protesters waving Ethiopian and Canadian flags as well as signs reading, "Down with Africa Oil Corp.," "Keith Hill supports African dictators," and: "Ethiopian regime! Stop killing our children." The protesters have started a campaign to bring Africa Oil's executives to court. It is not clear how that is progressing. (source: Stockwatch - Aug. 29, 2013)

[gimo211]

Was man zum Artikel noch sagen muss ist, dass das JV wg. der "encouraging" Resultate bei Sabisa entschieden hat, die nächste well nicht im Chew Bahir Basin zu drillen, sondern zunächst das Tutule prospect- etwa 4 km von Sabisa entfernt - an zu gehen....





http://www.ethiosports.com/2013/08/31/no-oil-in-first-explor…


No oil in first exploration well in South Omo
By Kaleyesus Bekele

The UK oil firm, Tullow Oil, did not find oil in the first exploration well it drilled in its concession in the South Omo basin, it was learnt.

Reliable sources told The Reporter that the drilling crew of Tullow Oil Ethiopia did not find oil flow in the first exploration well dubbed Sabisa-1. The well is drilled in a locality 15 km from Omorate town. Tullow started drilling on the first well last January. In a statement issued in April, Tullow said it encountered hydrocarbons requiring logging and further evaluation.

The Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block in Southern Ethiopia has been drilled to a total depth of 1810 metres. Tullow said hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal have been recorded whilst drilling, but hole instability issues have required the drilling of a sidetrack to comprehensively log and sample these zones of interest.

The sidetrack commenced in April and was completed in June. A Polish drilling contractor, OGEC, is conducting the drilling operation. The crew drilled horizontally due to the challenging nature of the well. Sources told The Reporter that the crew collected useful data that indicate the presence of oil in the area but did not find the oil reserve.

According to sources, the company is in the process of starting work on the second well. “Tullow will soon mobilize its drilling crew to the second well site once the rainy season is over,” sources said. The second well will be drilled near Chew Bahir.
Officials of Tullow declined to comment on the matter saying that they would soon issue a press statement.

Tullow has a 50 percent stake on the South Omo concession while the Vancouver-based company, Africa Oil, owns 30 percent and the US company, Marathon Oil, has 20 percent stake.

Petroleum experts The Reporter talked to said that Tullow did not find an oil inflow in the well. The company targeted to drill 2600 meters but was unable to go deeper than 1810 due to the instability of the well. The experts said that the instability is caused by the existence of oil shell in the area. “Since there are oil shells in the well, the earth could not hold the drilling pipe tight this has been a very challenging task for the drilling crew. There is sandstone (reservoir rock) and shell (the source rock). These are the hydrocarbon indications that the company found in the well,” the experts said.

Though Tullow did not note oil inflow it has encountered a working petroleum system (reservoir rock and source rock). “This shows that though there is no oil in the first well the existence of reservoir and source rock is an indication of oil reserve in the region. In the history of oil exploration you do not discover oil reserve in the first exploration well. These findings would be useful information for the planned second and third exploration well. The results obtained in the first well are encouraging to carry out further exploration work. It is not discouraging,” the experts said. The company spent more than 60 million dollars in the first well.

The seismic data collected by BGP Geo Services, the Chinese company contacted by Tullow Oil, from the South Omo concession has demonstrated the presence of oil in the area. “I am sure oil would be discovered in the second or third exploration well,” one of the experts told The Reporter.

[gabbo62]

Grand Kenya port plan faces headwinds despite oil finds

By Drazen Jorgic ,Reuters

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2013/09/01/38…

[nicolani]

es braucht halt alles seine zeit, rom ist auch nicht an einem tag erbaut worden, für geduldige eine jahrhundert-chance, mit ein wenig fingerspitzengefühl hier die besten player zu finden, aoi und tlw sollten auf jeden fall dazugehören!!

[gabbo62]

http://www.seanfahy.com/reports/daily_edge/dailyedge.pdf

Africa Oil Seiten 12-15
Quelle: Scotiabank

[gimo211]

Lesenswerter Report, gabbo62 - Danke

besonders gefällt natürlich das Share Price upside, welches sich auf C$ 72 hinauf bewegt... Größte Treiber dafür sind die inzwischen relativ low-risk (im Vergleich zum wildcat drilling; es bleibt dennoch risikoreiches Explorations-Drilling) weiteren prospects in 10BB und alles was 10BA alles zu bieten hat...

Jetzt im September beginnt eine sehr aktive Phase; es wird eine deutlich erhöhten News-Flow geben. Ich hoffe, es wird sich auch bald in der Share Price Entwicklung zeigen...

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS NEWS

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/africa-oil-announces…
September 03, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Announces 557% Increase in Estimates of Contingent Resources in the South Lokichar Basin in Kenya and a Significant Increase in Risked Prospective Resources


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 3, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC", or "the Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce that an updated independent assessment of the Company's contingent and prospective resources on its Kenyan and Ethiopian exploration properties has been completed by Gaffney, Cline & Associates ("Gaffney Cline", or "GCA"). The independent assessment was carried out in accordance with the standards established by the Canadian Securities Administrators in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. The effective date of the report is July 31, 2013.

It should be noted that these estimates do not include the Company's Puntland (Somalia) oil and gas interests which is available at www.sedar.com under Horn Petroleum Corporation, Africa Oil's 45% owned subsidiary.

Given the large quantity of prospects and leads in the Company's portfolio, the following three tables have been prepared for the convenience of readers by Africa Oil. Readers should refer to the tables attached to this News Release, which have been prepared by Gaffney Cline, detailing the contingent oil resources and prospective oil and gas resources by prospect and lead with the associated geological chance of success:

Summary of Contingent Oil Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
Country Licence GROSS Best
(2C) Estimate
(MMbbl) AOC
Working
Interest (%) NET Best
(2C) Estimate
(MMbbl)
Kenya Block 10BB 280 50% 140
Block 13T 87 50% 44
Ethiopia Block 7/82 155 30% 47

Notes:
1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the Company and not by Gaffney Cline & Associates.
2. Gross best estimate (2C) contingent gas resources of 106 BCF (32 BCF Net) not included in table for Blocks 7/8.

Summary of Prospective Oil Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
UNRISKED UNRISKED RISKED2
Country Licence GROSS
Best Estimate
(MMbbl) AOC
Working
Interest
(%) NET
Best Estimate
(MMbbl) NET
Best Estimate
(Risked)
(MMbbl)
Kenya Block 9 1,598 50% 799 96
Block 10A 376 30% 113 14
Block 10BA 9,836 50% 4,918 374
Block 10BB 2,364 50% 1,182 302
Block 12A 3,779 20% 756 38
Block 13T 2,174 50% 1,087 382
Ethiopia South Omo 2,641 30% 792 88

Summary of Prospective Gas Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
UNRISKED UNRISKED RISKED2
Country Licence GROSS
Best Estimate
(BCF) AOC
Working
Interest
(%) NET
Best Estimate
(BCF) NET
Best Estimate
(Risked)
(BCF)
Kenya Block 9 1,880 50% 940 376
Block 10A 360 30% 108 38
Notes:
1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the Company and not by Gaffney, Cline & Associates.
2. Risked resources have been calculated and summed by the company after risking prospects and leads individually. Geological Chance of success (GCOS) varies with each prospect or lead.

Keith Hill, Africa Oil's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented: "Gaffney Cline's independent assessment confirms a significant increase to contingent and risked prospective resources in the Tertiary rift basins in Kenya and Ethiopia. Based on the drilling and testing program over the past year we have confirmed the South Lokichar Basin contains gross contingent resources of 368 million barrels of oil, an increase of 557%. In addition gross risked prospective resources of 1,213 million barrels of oil are estimated for the South Lokichar Basin. This level of resource exceeds the threshold for development and development studies have commenced. We continue to aggressively explore with three seismic crews active and are ramping up drilling activity with plans to have a total of six rigs (four operated by Tullow Oil) operating in the fourth quarter of 2013. We expect the next 18 months to be transformational as we drill-out the prolific South Lokichar Basin and open up a number of highly prospective basins on the Tertiary rift trend."

Africa Oil's holdings include working interests in operated and non-operated Production Sharing Contracts (PSC's) in Kenya, Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia) in East Africa. These Blocks contain relatively under explored plays in basins that have proven and productive analogs. Since the effective date (June 30, 2012) of Gaffney Cline's previous evaluation of prospective resources, highlights of the Company's exploration activities in Kenya and Ethiopia include:

•Drilling and testing the Twiga South-1 well in Block 13T (Kenya) resulting in an additional oil discovery and demonstrating high quality Auwerwer sands containing light waxy sweet oil.
•Production testing the Ngamia-1A discovery in Block 10BB (Kenya) which significantly increased the assessment of net oil pay encountered by the well;
•Drilling the Etuko-1 well in Block 10BB (Kenya) resulting in an additional oil discovery.
•As a result of these additional South Lokichar Basin discoveries, several prospects and leads in the Tertiary rift have been de-risked and the volume of contingent oil resources has increased;
•Drilling the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A (Kenya) demonstrating a working petroleum system in the Anza Basin;
•Drilling the Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block (Ethiopia) demonstrating a working petroleum system in the South Omo Basin;
•The acquisition of approximately 5,000 km of 2D seismic, increasing the number of mapped prospects and leads;
Please refer to the tables below detailing the Company's contingent oil resources and prospective oil and gas resources by prospect and lead as provided by Gaffney Cline effective July 31st, 2013.

To view Tables 1-12, click on the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/895788t.pdf

[nicolani]

"It should be noted that these estimates do not include the Company's Puntland (Somalia) oil and gas interests which is available at www.sedar.com under Horn Petroleum Corporation, Africa Oil's 45% owned subsidiary."


man beachte auch diesen hinweis!

ja endlich mal wieder volumen im handel!

[gimo211]

Hier, was ich heute schon am anderer Stelle zum Resourcen-Update veröffentlicht habe...


The difference between "contingent" and "prospective" resources is important....

For reference, this paper (graphic at page #2) may be helpful...

SPE Guide for non-technical users: http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_guide_non_tech.pdf


Therefore, we have a probability of 50% (that is 2C), that we have already "discovered" at least 368 Million bbls and in addition a prospective resource of 1.213 Billion bbls in 10BB and 13T (South Lokichar Sub Basin)...

Great... But I would expect, that these figures will soar further with more drilling success in the future...

[nicolani]

an der omx heute höchstes volumen seit über einem monat!

[gimo211]

Mit den Zahlen von heute kann man eine Menge wunderbarer Analysen anstellen...

Hier noch etwas, was ich heute schon gepostet habe...



Ngamia-1, Twiga South-1 and Etuko-1 are already major discoveries!

Here the link to the full GCA independent Report. http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/895788t.pdf

We have discovered C2 cross (AOC 50%) contingent resources of 368-million bbls (the 557% increase) but an upside (C3) of 851-Million bbls from these three wells alone...

Therefore we have a 50% probability that these three discoveries exceed 386-million bbls and a 10% probability that these discoveries exceed 851-million bbls... I think, the true will be somewhere between these figures...

just to remind on, how huge the success has been so far....

[nicolani]

das risiko hier falsch zu liegen wird immer geringer, aber man darf das geopolitische! restrisiko nicht ausser acht lassen!

[gimo211]

... Ich habe heute einmal etwas Promotion im englischsprachigen Raum gemacht...


Hier noch etwas zum heutigen Report, welches unsere nächsten Drilling tragest betrifft...



Also very interesting how big our next targets are and how good the geological chance of success (GCoS) are calculated:


Ekales (results expected end of September): best estimate 234-million bbls, high estimate 648-million bbls, GCoS between 56% (Auwerwer sds) and 42% (Lokone sds)

Agete (next spud in 13T): best 276-million bbls, high 764-million bbls, GCoS between 56% (Aw) and 30% (Lk)

Ngamia West Block: best 242-million bbls, high 557-million bbls, GCoS between 64% (!!) and 56%


Block 9 Bahasi (spud with Marathon soon): best 320-million bbls, high 656-million bbls, GCoS 19%


Looks like, we will have a lot of fun in the coming months...

[nicolani]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.378.493 von gimo211 am 03.09.13 19:16:49

den spass sollten wir uns dann an weihnachten gönnen!

[nicolani]

irgendwann werden die estimates auch eingepreist, gehe mal davon aus, dass demnächst auch tlw die hosen runterlässt, great story!!

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.378.493 von gimo211 am 03.09.13 19:16:49

So da ich morgen etwas im Stress bin gibt es über den Chart schon heute was. Viel wird in den letzten Minuten eh nicht passieren
Schweden heute mit einem gigantischen Umsatz von 1,5 Mill Stück.
Canada läßt es heute hingegen etwas ruhiger angehen. Bisher 171 k.
Charttechnik sieht extrem gut aus.
Mit einem Ruck wurde die MA 200 und MA 50 übersprungen und ich vermute mal das halten wir bis Handelsschluß.
- RSI bei 54,45 positiv
- SAR wurde getroffen und ist nun auch Positiv
-Slow STO mit 39,37 % Positiv
- MACD knapp davor grün zu werden.
- Chandlestick übergeordnet mit dem Signal " Kaufen "
Also es kann weiter nach oben gehen
Was mich auch Freud ist, dass ich die letzten Signale im vorherein jedesmal richtig gedeutet habe
....und das ist alles erst der Anfang !!!
Niki

[gimo211]

Oil firm increases fivefold Turkana deposits




An oil rig at Ngamia 1 in Turkana County. Africa Oil said that northern Kenya has commercially viable oil and gas reserves.


By John Gachiri

Posted Tuesday, September 3 2013 at 18:49

IN SUMMARY
In a statement released on Tuesday, Africa Oil said that Northern Kenya has commercially viable oil and gas reserves.
Africa Oil is a joint exploration partner with Tullow Oil in some of the Northern Kenya wells with fuel deposits.
The firm estimated that the gross prospective resources or the best case scenario of how much oil the basin carries is 20.1 billion barrels.


Africa Oil, the Canadian company prospecting for petroleum in northern Kenya, has raised fivefold the estimated deposits in the Lokichar basin, affirming a recent report by British exploration firm Tullow Oil.

In a statement released on Tuesday, Africa Oil said that Northern Kenya has commercially viable oil and gas reserves. Africa Oil is a joint exploration partner with Tullow Oil in some of the Northern Kenya wells with fuel deposits.

“Based on the drilling and testing programme over the past year we have confirmed the South Lokichar Basin contains gross contingent resources of 368 million barrels of oil, an increase of 557 per cent,” said Africa Oil chief executive Keith Hill.

The company has rights to exploration blocks in both Kenya and Ethiopia. It said that the neighbouring country has a potential to produce 155 million barrels.

The explorer estimated that the gross prospective resources or the best case scenario of how much oil the basin carries is 20.1 billion barrels.

How much can actually be pumped out will, however, only be confirmed once the company carries out more tests, which it says will happen from next month.

“We continue to aggressively explore with three seismic crews active and are ramping up drilling activity with plans to have a total of six rigs (four operated by Tullow Oil) operating in the fourth quarter of 2013,” said the statement.

The company said that the region also has commercially viable natural gas reserves at 0.9 trillion cubic feet and similar to oil, the gross potential is higher at 2.2 trillion cubic feet.

Finer details on exactly how much oil and gas can be pumped out and if there are more reserves are expected by early 2015.

“We expect the next 18 months to be transformational as we drill out the prolific South Lokichar Basin and open up a number of highly prospective basins on the Tertiary rift trend,” said the statement.

Commercial viability will end a 50-year wait that has seen numerous drilling activity but none of which has yielded positive results.

“Of 33 wells drilled in the country prior to 2012, 16 showed signs of hydrocarbons, but none were considered commercial. Only four had been drilled offshore prior to 2012 and of these only one (in Block L5, drilled by Woodside in 2007) was in deep water,” said a 2013 report by consultancy firm Deloitte titled the Deloitte guide to oil and gas in East Africa: Where potential lies.

The last few years have, however, seen an increase in foreign firms prospecting for oil and gas in the region which has created opportunities for local firms that are offering support services.

It is estimated that Kenya could move to commercial production of oil by 2016. Plans for construction of refineries and jointly-owned oil pipelines with Uganda and South Sudan are underway to help in tapping the resource.

In a statement released last month, Tullow said the Turkana exploration basin had reserves in excess of 300 million barrels of oil after it discovered an additional 50 metres of reserves in Etuko-1, surpassing the commercial production threshold of 250 million barrels.

The British firm said the resources discovered were of a scale that would prompt discussions with the government and investors to kick off the development process.

A draft Bill for oil and gas mining is expected to be ready for debate by MPs in November to pave the way for investors keen on long-term ventures in the sector.

The revised law seeks to create a unit of National Oil Corporation of Kenya to regulate upstream operations of multinational firms that are currently involved in exploration.

The law also seeks to separate the roles for oil explorers, producers, distributors and retailers.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Oil+firm+increases+fivefo…

[motz1]

So, ich melde mich nach dreiwöchiger Abstinenz wieder zurück. Ich muss allen ein Kompliment für die Threadarbeit machen, da fällt einem das Aufholen der Geschehnisse leicht!

U.a. folgende Beiträge habe ich für lesenswert erachtet, falls sie hier bereits gepostet wurden bitte ignorieren:

....................

Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda oil pipeline aims to strengthen regional economy
06.08.2013 16:29

Kigali, 5th Aug, 2013-The team of experts from Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda met in Kigali to discuss and agree on the technical specifications for the oil pipeline aims to link the three member states.

The meeting was chaired by the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Infrastructure, Mr. Christian Rwakunda.

The meeting has determined the current and the projected flow rates required, and the larger market that would be supplied from Kigali. The team will design ways of dealing with issues such as: Technical specifications, funding mechanisms and Land issues.
[...]
http://www.mininfra.gov.rw/88/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=115&cH…



Kenya From Nowhere Plans East Africa’s First Oil Exports
Will Kennedy
August 20, 2013 11:56 AM EDT

Kenya is headed to become the first oil exporter in East Africa, moving in less than five years from being a have-not nation to the regional leader in cutting reliance on energy suppliers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

After Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) discovered oil last year, Kenya is set to start shipments in 2016, overtaking neighboring Uganda, where Tullow found crude more than seven years ago. The U.K. explorer plans to start pumping in Kenya as soon as next year, Chief Operating Officer Paul McDade said in an interview. Kenya’s deposits may top 10 billion barrels, according to the company, more than three times the U.K.’s remaining reserves.

Exports will underpin Kenya’s shilling currency and are being pushed by a government that wants a lead on Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo, whose East African resources in recent years attracted explorers such as China’s Cnooc Ltd. (883) and France’s Total SA. (FP) Most oil companies traditionally had focused on the African powerhouses of Nigeria and Angola to the west, and Libya and Egypt on the Mediterranean.

Oil will allow Kenya to “diversify export earnings and act as a catalyst for infrastructural spending, especially on the transport network,” Phumulele Mbiyo, regional head of macroeconomic research at Nairobi-based CfC Stanbic Bank Ltd., a unit of Standard Bank Group Ltd., said in an interview. “The shilling is expected to benefit from inflows of foreign exchange and reduced spending on fuel imports.”
[...]
http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-19/kenya-from-no…



China oil imports to overtake U.S. by 2017: WoodMac
LONDON | Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:34am EDT

(Reuters) - China will overtake the United States as the world's biggest crude oil importer by 2017 as Chinese motorists drive domestic oil demand higher, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.
[...]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/us-china-oil-idUSB…



Analysis: Grand Kenya port plan faces headwinds despite oil finds
Drazen Jorgic
8:45 a.m. EDT, August 30, 2013

LAMU, Kenya (Reuters) - A mega-port project on the north Kenyan coast conceived in the 1970s may finally be gaining traction based on commercial oil finds in Uganda and Kenya, but it needs more financing to compete with a Chinese-backed port in Tanzania and other rivals.

Initial work has started on a mangrove coast near the ancient Arab trading post of Lamu that could in a few years be a bustling container port and crude terminal, creating an export hub for fast-growing east African states and their oil.

But Kenya must shore up regional commitment for the $25.5 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) plan that by 2030 envisages a port, new roads, a railway and pipeline.
[...]
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-kenya-port-anal…




Kenya Airways plans direct flights to China's Guangzhou
English.news.cn
2013-08-29 07:16:22

NAIROBI, Aug. 28 (Xinhua) -- Kenya Airways said Wednesday it will launch direct flights in November to China's commercial city of Guangzhou to reap from the growing Sino-African relations.

The airline CEO Titus Naikuni said its Boeing 777-300ER will be introduced for the non-stop weekly flight on Nov. 19 between the Kenyan capital Nairobi and Guangzhou.

Naikuni said the Asian nation has emerged as a key trading partner for Africa, adding that Kenya Airways' planned flights to Guangzhou will build on this connection.
[...]
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2013-08/29/c_132671…



China's Sinopec signs $3.1bn Egypt oil deal with Apache
30 August 2013 Last updated at 02:28 GMT

Sinopec petrol station Chinese firms have been inking various global deals to secure long term energy supplies Continue reading the main story
Business of EnergyThe cost of petrol and oil: How it breaks down
Energy uncovered
Competition drives up energy cost

China Petrochemical Corporation, also known as Sinopec, has agreed to buy a 33% stake in the Egyptian oil and gas business of US firm Apache Corporation.

Sinopec will pay Apache $3.1bn (£2bn) in cash for the stake.
[...]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23894284



East Africa Oil and Gas Summit (EAOGS)
29-30 October 2013, Intercontinental, Nairobi

Anm.: AOI als Gold-Sponsor, KH als bestätigter Redner
http://www.eaogs.com/



Tullow to Start Pumping in Kenya Next Year
By Charles Kennedy
Tue, 27 August 2013 21:37

UK-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) has announced it will begin pumping its first oil in Kenya as soon as next year, and that Kenya will begin exporting already in 2016.
[...]
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Tullow-to-Start-Pumping…



Japan seeks deals in Kenya’s oil sector
By Neville Otuki
Posted Tuesday, August 13 2013 at 20:16

In Summary
•Japan investors led by the Marubeni Corporation have shown interest in the laying of a pipeline connecting the drilling site to refinery and marketers.

Japan is seeking to invest in Kenya’s oil sector following the discovery of exploitable deposits in Turkana County.

Japan investors led by the Marubeni Corporation have shown interest in the laying of a pipeline connecting the drilling site to refinery and marketers.

Marubeni, a conglomerate which has its offices in Nairobi, said on Tuesday it was keen to secure deals in the oil industry alongside power generation in the geothermal sector.
[...]
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Japan+seeks+deals+in+Keny…


Analystenmeinungen:

Africa Oil Now Covered by TD Securities (AOI)
August 20th, 2013

Africa Oil logoTD Securities initiated coverage on shares of Africa Oil (CVE:AOI) in a research note released on Friday morning, AR Network reports. The firm issued a speculative buy rating and a C$11.50 target price on the stock.
[...]
http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/africa-oi…


Citi Research: https://ir.citi.com/%2B6P7O9BqQ2rm%2FpVahD0blw3V3pgCcdArJ8Vc…

Ratingübersicht: http://www.analystratings.net/stocks/CVE/AOI/?RegistrationCo…

[gimo211]

... Das ist aber eine Rückkehr mit Grandezza, lieber motz1....

DANKE!!!

[gabbo62]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/tullow-africa-oil-m…

Tullow, Africa Oil May Sell Half of Kenyan Fields to Share Costs

By Mikael Holter & Eduard Gismatullin - Sep 4, 2013 2:51 PM

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) and Africa Oil Corp. (AOI) may sell as much as half of their fields in Kenya to a strategic partner to share costs.

Each company holds a 50 percent stake in the South Lokichar Basin fields and may sell 40 to 50 percent of the combined assets to “a multinational” company, Africa Oil Chief Executive Officer Keith Hill said in Oslo today.

“Early on it would be a very small piece, maybe a 10 percent piece of our 50 percent interest,” Hill said in an interview. Interest in buying a stake may rise because the oil resource estimate “could easily triple by the end of next year, using any reasonable risk on the wells we’re drilling.”

Africa Oil yesterday increased more than sixfold its estimate for gross contingent resources to 368 million barrels of oil. The partners are ready to start pumping crude as soon as next year after discovering first oil last year.

“We’re talking probably 18 months to two years from now, until we’ve drilled enough wells to feel confident enough about what we have,” that “we can attract a partner on terms that we’d find acceptable,” Hill said.

Kenya may become East Africa’s first oil-exporting nation as soon as 2016 after the companies increase oil production, Tullow Chief Operating Officer Paul McDade said in July.

[motz1]

Sehr cool, gabbo62! Ich nehme an die Statements stammen von der Pareto-Konferenz (heute und morgen) in Dänemark.

Und es gibt schon mehr davon:

AFRICA OIL SIGHT IN TA 250-300 MLN USD around the turn - CEO (Direct ) Print
2013-09-04 11:36


OSLO ( AFX) Africa Oil is aiming to bring in 250-300 $ one million around the turn to finance next year's operations. A directed issue like last year, standing at the bottom of my wish list .

It says oil exploration company's CEO Keith Hill in an interview with news agency Direkt on Wednesday in connection with Pareto Securities Oil Companies days in Oslo.

" The issue is at the bottom of the list. , We have no giant hurry , then we have the money for six months to . We are looking at all possibilities. I'm not the least bit worried about bringing in money , but I know that many others are not. We can very easily get hold of the new money , it's all about timing , however, and to provide minimal dilution for shareholders , "said Keith Hill.

He continues:

" We prefer to get the money before the end of the year , but if we do not have the money until we have still Lundin family in the back that margin of safety ."

How much money do you need?

"Around 250-300 million dollar view" , he says.

What options are you looking at ?

" We are discussing with several large funds about making a strategic investment in the company. Utfarmningsmöjligheter We also discuss some of our blocks. , We have three or four major players who have shown interest to farm in themselves . A private placement , we can always do , but it's like I said our least desirable option. course we remember what happened at last year 's private placement , "says Keith Hill and pointing at the wet blanket issue la the stock price for a while.

As for next year's budget for capital expenditure , capex , is estimated to be slightly higher than that of this year, according to Keith Hill.

Next drill results are expected for the Kenyan cockpit Ekales around the end of this month.

A number of wells expected to commence drilling in September as Kenyan Agete , Bahasi , and Ethiopian Electric Kuran and Tultule , according to CEO .

Africa Oil is aiming to begin the seven - eight wells in the second half of this year , with the results for five wells. Next year, an additional 15 to 20 wells to drill , according to Keith Hill.

" We will have five wells drilled by the end of this month and will be completed this year, but then we will have some that even go into next year even if they start this year ," he says .

Keith Hill is really pleased with Tuesday's resource update despite the market's relatively conservative ratings in the form of exchange reaction:

" The numbers are very robust . A feedback I got from a market participant , however, was that the market is still worried about our funding for next year ," said Keith Hill.

The Kenyan well Etuko deemed to have been tested finished in October, when the test results are expected . The Kenyan well Paipai expected flow tested in the first quarter of next year , according to CEO .

As for the political situation in East Africa is the added card is applicable to Kenya , which has a fairly newly installed president of Uhuru Kenyatta , and what Ethiopia is concerned contract entered conditions and similar to oil companies operating in the area:

" The transition to the new regime has been mighty good and Kenyatta has said he wants to make Kenya the most investment-friendly country in Africa . Ethiopia has not given any indication , although not struck oil yet, that they would change their concluded contract terms , "says Keith Hill.

Just how worrying is that Uhuru Kenyatta is admissible in the International Criminal Court ?

"The world will closely follow what is going on trial, but no matter what happens, Kenya, with its significant strategic interest to be subject to western countries' interest in the future. This matter what happens in the trial. But it is a concern for everyone in the region and it will be nice when rättegångsproceesen is over , "said the President.

In the case of Africa Oil's Somali associates Horn Petroleum is expected to probably any African acquisition of one-two months. However, outside the countries Africa Oil now operates in , let Keith Hill understand.

Africa Oil is hardly for sale within the next few years even if a really high bid could have lead to think about:

"We see such a big upside in our drilling ahead that we need a more than substantial bids to consider a sale ," says Keith Hill.

As to the first oil from the Kenya pipeline is expected to take around four to five years , according to Keith Hill, while a shorter-term solution to distribute oil through such vehicles could be implemented around 2016 while oil that goes into the pipeline thus may occur around 2018.

In late September arranges Africa Oil a field trip for investors:

" We will have about 60 investors and analysts that follow on this journey with representatives from three of the world's largest mutual funds ," says Keith Hill.


Henrik Svensson [phone]
Direkt

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N2008…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.384.851 von motz1 am 04.09.13 16:16:43

Die Konferenz war in Oslo, also in Norwegen, mein Fehler .


Den Schweden und Kanadiern scheinen die Infos jedenfalls zu gefallen...


Kurzfassung dazu:
Finanzierung:
- Finanzierungsvolumen für nächstes Jahr 250-300 Mio USD
- Zeitpunkt: Gewollter Abschluss noch in diesem Jahr, vorhandenes Cash reicht aber noch für Q1/14
- Quelle: Strategischer Investor, Fonds, Placement oder Lundin - Hill macht deutlich dass er eher an strategischen Investoren oder Fonds interessiert ist

Bohrungen:
- Ekales-Ergebnisse sind für Ende diesen Monats geplant/erwartet
- Etuko-Testergebnisse werden für Oktober erwartet
- Es werden noch 7-8 Bohrungen begonnen in diesem Jahr (u.a. Agete, Bahasi, El Kuran, Tultule), davon sollen noch 5 in diesem Jahr abgeschlossen werden
- Für 2014 werden 15-20 (!!!) Bohrungen geplant
- Paipai soll in Q1/14 getestet werden

HRN:
- Bei HRN sollen in den nächsten 1-2 Monaten Aquisitionen in Ländern in denen AOI nicht operiert vermeldet werden

AOI:
- Kein AOI-sale in den nächsten paar Jahren:
"We see such a big upside in our drilling ahead that we need a more than substantial bids to consider a sale ," says Keith Hill.
- Field-Trip für Investoren Ende September

[gimo211]

... Es gibt Gerüchte um einen Bieter-Wettstreit um ein farmin unter Beteiligung von CNOOC....

Solche Gerüchte allein befeuern den Shareprice...

Wir haben ohnehin alles richtig gemacht; ob es jetzt oder in 2 Jahren nach oben tickt, ist eigentlich nicht relevant; wobei ich nichts dagegen hätte, wir nehmen jetzt mal eine mehrere-Dollar-Stufe...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.385.809 von gimo211 am 04.09.13 17:57:40

Hi gimo211,
wenn es nach mir geht dann doch lieber etwas schneller als 2 Jahre
Im Prinzip hast Du schon Recht. Wichtig ist, das sich der Kurs nach oben bewegt.
Nachtrag zu meiner Chartanalyse von heute morgen:
Die Candelstikanalyse von gestern zeit das ein bearish Harami CROSS gebildet.
Das bedeutet, das die Bullen stark sind, was man auch heute sehen kann
Die negative Stimmung, die bis zum letzten bearischen Muster geführt hat , ist verdampft.
Heute in Schweden war so ein richtig schöner Umsatz von 2,35 Mio zu sehen.
Kanada kommt auch schön langsam in die Pötte. Bis 19:00 Uhr = 658 KDas ist der zweithöchste Umsatz seit anfang August und der Abend ist noch nicht zu ende.
Morgen früh dann wieder was zur Charttechnik.
Danke allen, die immer fleissig hier die aktuellen Daten, Berichte und und Verlautbarungen hier hereinstellen. Alleine ist das nicht zu schaffen und daher sehr hilfreich !!!!!!
Niki

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.385.809 von gimo211 am 04.09.13 17:57:40

Du erinnerst dich sicher noch an die Berichte im vergangenen Herbst, durch die bekannt wurde, dass China bereits vor dem Ngamia-Spud mit 20% in die Tullow/AOI-Blöcke einsteigen wollte.
Kenyas Energie-Minister hatte CNOOC damals noch in recht frischer aber nicht besonders guter Erinnerung bezüglich deren Bogal-Aktivitäten. Wohl dadurch war es Tullow und AOI mit Zustimmung des Energieministers möglich, die Chinesen zum warten zu verdonnern.

Situation heute:
- Jetzt sind in den letzten Wochen Berichte öffentlich geworden, wonach China 5 Milliarden USD in die Infrastruktur Kenyas investieren wird.

- Zudem lässt sich KH zitieren, dass ein anfängliches Farmout in kleinerem Umfang von etwa 10% denkbar sei.


Mögliche Schlussfolgerung:
China wird nicht "auf gut Glück" in Kenyas Infrastruktur investieren, sie brauchen Sicherheit - die könnte im nachgewiesenen Öl liegen. Würden nun Tullow und AOI jeweils 10% an China (CNOOC, Sino, ...) abtreten, so hätten alle Seiten was sie brauchen.

Ich wäre überrascht, wenn der neue Partner nicht aus China kommt...

[Staberhuk]

China stößt aber in Afrika immer mehr auf Widerstand, weil die Methoden und Ziele oft fragwürdig waren.


Quelle: Africa Intelligence v. 03.09.2013

AFRICA / CHINA
China finds the going ever rougher
The increase in Chinese investment in Africa’s oil since the country debuted on the continent in Sudan in 1996 is running into increasing resistance. Beijing has been encountering hitches in several African nations which are openly criticizing its practices. Alex Stewart seeking anti-Chinese reward in Chad? (...) Read more

[motz1]

Zitat von Staberhuk: China stößt aber in Afrika immer mehr auf Widerstand, weil die Methoden und Ziele oft fragwürdig waren.

Hi Staberhuk, da stimme ich dir voll und ganz zu, der Widerstand gegen China steigt in Teilen.

Ich führe das aber hauptsächlich darauf zurück, dass einige afrikanische Länder nun merken, dass sich China bereits seit weit über 10 Jahren systematisch (u.a. strategisch bedeutsame) Rohstoffvorkommen sichert.

Aus meiner Sicht sind Methoden und Ziele zumindest heute klar und deutlich erkennbar: China geht es zuerst um Sicherung von Rohstoffen, u.a. Öl zum Zwecke der Versorgungssicherheit um ihre eigene Wirtschaft am laufen zu halten bzw. den "Treibstoff" für den Aufschwung sicher zu stellen. Dafür nehmen sie dann schon auch mal mehr Geld als Konkurrenten aus dem Westen in die Hand - in Form von Barkompensationen oder, sehr häufig praktiziert, mittels durchgeführter Infrastrukturmaßnahmen. China geht es imho rein ums Geschäft, nicht um Menschenrechte, Missionierung oder um sonstige Wert-/Moralvorstellungen. Äußerst pragmatisch, sie versuchen für ihr Land das beste Geschäft abzuschließen.

Das klingt zunächst eher positiv für die Handelspartner. Solange dort aber kein ausgeschlafenes Regime an der Macht ist hilft das der betroffenen Bevölkerung im Extremfall ebenso wenig wie geringere Preise die durch westliche Konzerne bezahlt werden.

Ich halte China deshalb nicht für besser oder schlechter als westliche Konzerne. Im Falle von AOI zähle ich auf die chinesische Eigenschaft Dinge zügig regeln zu können (bzgl. Infrastrukturmaßnahmen) und die Weitsicht der Kenianischen Regierung. Kenia scheint mir ein ernsthaftes Interesse zu haben langfristig mehr als nur Rohöl exportieren zu wollen.

[sebo70]

hi habe mir nur 300 St gekauft plane aber langfristig dabei zubleiben, was wird erwartet an Kurszielen und ist es noch sinnvoll aufzustocken bitte um rege tips und anregungen

[gimo211]

Zitat von motz1: Du erinnerst dich sicher noch an die Berichte im vergangenen Herbst, durch die bekannt wurde, dass China bereits vor dem Ngamia-Spud mit 20% in die Tullow/AOI-Blöcke einsteigen wollte.
Kenyas Energie-Minister hatte CNOOC damals noch in recht frischer aber nicht besonders guter Erinnerung bezüglich deren Bogal-Aktivitäten. Wohl dadurch war es Tullow und AOI mit Zustimmung des Energieministers möglich, die Chinesen zum warten zu verdonnern.

Situation heute:
- Jetzt sind in den letzten Wochen Berichte öffentlich geworden, wonach China 5 Milliarden USD in die Infrastruktur Kenyas investieren wird.

- Zudem lässt sich KH zitieren, dass ein anfängliches Farmout in kleinerem Umfang von etwa 10% denkbar sei.


Mögliche Schlussfolgerung:
China wird nicht "auf gut Glück" in Kenyas Infrastruktur investieren, sie brauchen Sicherheit - die könnte im nachgewiesenen Öl liegen. Würden nun Tullow und AOI jeweils 10% an China (CNOOC, Sino, ...) abtreten, so hätten alle Seiten was sie brauchen.

Ich wäre überrascht, wenn der neue Partner nicht aus China kommt...

Ja, motz1, das passt alles zusammen... So hätte CNOOC seine 20%, von denen sie bereits gesprochen hatten...

Nur glaube ich, dass hier auch die westlichen super Majors nicht tatenlos zusehen können - immerhin geht es hier um vielleicht 20 Milliarden bbls allein aus Kenya mit einem geplanten Zugang direkt vom Indischen Ozean (und eben nicht vom strategisch komplexen Golf von Aden...).

Apache verkauft gerade jede Menge Assets (u.a. Positionen im GOM und Egypt für knapp 7 Milliarden Dollar), um sich strategisch neu zu positionieren (Kenya L8 btw. haben sie nicht aufgegeben)...

Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron ... alle müssen neue Reserven erschließen...

Indien hat eine ähnliche Sicht auf die Themen, wie die Chinesen....

Für die Russen ist nicht nur Shale-Gas ein Problem (weil es die Preise drückt und Überkapazitäten erzeugt), sondern auch die riesigen East-Africa-Funde off Tansania und Mosambik... Auch die könnten einen strategischen Blick auf das EARS legen...


Ich habe das Gefühl, da ist eine Menge Wettbewerb drin... Und warum sollten die Lundins zu schnell eine präjudizierende Entscheidung treffen? KH zeigte sich ja heute in Oslo in dieser Frage sehr gelassen....

Wenn CNOOC hier die 20% bekommt, dann zahlen sie einen sehr hohen Preis - da bin ich ziemlich sicher...

Ganz sicher gut für uns...

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.386.265 von niki550525 am 04.09.13 18:57:21

So, wie versprochen heute mal wieder ein update zur Charttechnik.
- Gestern ein gigantischer Umsatz auch in Canada mit 1,2 Mio Stück und dies hauptsächlich so in den letzten Handelsstunden.Die Umsatzsteigerung in den letzten Handelsstunden ist schon seit einiger Zeit zu beobachten.
- RSI bei 64,11 ist im grünen Bereich
- SAR im grünen Bereich
- MACD im grünen Bereich
- Slow STO im grünen Bereich bei 60,95%
- übergeordneter Candlestickanalyse ist bei Kaufen - somit Long
Gut ist, dass wir uns mit dem Kurs immer weiter von den MA200 und MA50 entfernen. Das verstätkt den positiven Trend.
das Durchschreiten der MA50 läßt noch ein wenig auf sich warten. Der Abstand zu MA200 hat sich aber auf 4 Cent veringert.Ist aber in absehbarer Zeit möglich. Das wäre dann das letzte und wichtige positive Signal.
Widerstandslinie gibt es aber auch und die befindet sich bei ca.7,90 C$.
Seit meiner Kaufempfehlung hat der Kurs um ca.13% zugelegt
Hoffe es hilft bei der Anlageentscheidung
Die Fakten und Gerüchte kann man oben gut nachlesen. Bei meinen Darstellungen geht es halt mehr um das Timing das dann durch Nachrichten untermauert ist.
Niki