VA Linux - kann sie den Kampf gewinnen? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Struwwelpeter]

Va Linux Systems
WKN 929398
Nasdaq: LNUX

Von der Modeaktie zum Scherbenhaufen.
Wird sie den Kampf gewinnen oder ist`s bald aus?


Der Reihe nach:


Kurzportrait:

VA Linux Systems Inc. ist der führende Provider für Server von Grossrechnern und Workstations. Zu den Kunden von Linux zählen namhafte Unternehmen wie Inktomi, Cisco Systems, eToys, IBM und GTE.
Hauptkonkurrenten: Compaq, IBM, Sun Microsystems.






Anfang Dezember haben sie das Börsenlicht der Welt erblickt:


VA Linux rockets 698%
Eclipses Theglobe as top IPO opener of all time


By Steve Gelsi, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:08 PM ET Dec 9,

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- VA Linux Systems blasted off with a staggering rise of 698 percent as the technology specialist set a new opening day record for initial public offerings Thursday.


The white-hot Silicon Valley firm (LNUX: news, msgs) closed at 239 1/4, an eightfold gain over its offering price of $30 per share, on volume of 7.8 million shares.

The stock opened at more than 10 times its $30 price at 320 and then held on to most of its gains through the final trades of the blistering session.

"I think the word `monster` comes to mind," said Mark Specker, analyst with SoundView. "Wall Street believes the market for single-purpose applications based on Linux is very large."

He predicted other Linux players will speed up plans to go public.

"There are cycles where different things come into vogue in the IPO market, and right now it`s Linux," said Steve Tuen, IPO Value Monitor`s research director. "Some of these seem to have a life of their own."

VA Linux Systems took over the No. 1 spot as the biggest first-day performer of all time.

Until Thursday, the following IPOs occupied the top five spots, as recorded by CommScan Analytics:

Theglobe.com (TGLO: news, msgs) debuted Nov. 13, 1998, with a gain of 606 percent. That`s followed by a 525 percent gain by Foundry Networks (FDRY: news, msgs) in a Sept. 28 IPO. Cobalt Networks (COBT: news, msgs) had a first-day jump of 482 percent on Nov. 5. MarketWatch.com (MKTW: news, msgs), publisher of the CBS.MarketWatch.com financial-news site, is next, with a run-up of 474 percent on Jan. 15. And Akamai Technologies (AKAM: news, msgs) rose 458 percent on Oct. 29.

Indications of VA Linux`s immense strength came in the last three days when it nearly tripled its projected range from its $11-to-$13 level. It first jacked up its pricing estimate to $21 to $23, and then a second time to $28 to $30 as investors piled on.

VA Linux Systems is the third stock to see a huge run-up in its estimated price range this week, following the example of Agency.com (ACOM: news, msgs) and FreeMarkets (FMKT: news, msgs). See related story.

It raised $132 million by selling 4.4 million shares via lead underwriter CS First Boston. With about 39.7 million shares outstanding, the company is already sporting a market cap of nearly $10 billion.

Linux craze

Linux is an open-source operating system often used in Web servers. It`s seen as faster and cheaper than Microsoft`s (MSFT: news, msgs) Windows NT. VA Linux is certainly capitalizing on the belief that Linux can compete effectively against Microsoft`s widely adopted offerings.


The Sunnyvale, Calif., hardware maker is following in the high-flying path of software maker Red Hat (RHAT: news, msgs). Red Hat debuted Aug. 11 at $14 per share and has since zoomed to 283.

Tuen compared VA Linux Systems to another hot IPO, Cobalt Networks (COBT: news, msgs), because both build hardware that operates on Linux.

"The future of the industry looks very bright," Red Hat Chairman Bob Young told CBS MarketWatch. "The investment community is recognizing this. VA Linux is a great hardware story against proprietary Unix vendors such as Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs), Hewlett-Packard (HWP: news, msgs) and Silicon Graphics (SGI: news, msgs).

VA Linux Systems` revenue has ballooned to $17.7 million in 1999, up from $5.6 million in 1998; its customer base surged to 1,100 from 550 in the same period. Backers include Sequoia Capital and Intel (INTC: news, msgs).



Das sind die Zahlen:


Five Quarter Earnings and Revenue History
Selected Qtrly Financials YYMM(Quarter) 0001(2) 9910(1) 9907(4) 9904(3) 9901(2)
Revenues(millions) 20.2 14.8 7.8 4.3 3.2
Sequential Rev. Pct Chg(vs. Qtr Before) 36 90 81 34 NA
Net Income(millions) -11.5 -10.1 -9.2 -3.4 -1.8
Shares Outstanding(millions) 41.386 39.702 39.702 39.702 39.702
Earns Bef. Inc. Tax(millions) -12.7 -10.4 NA NA NA
Profit Margins -56.9 -68.2 NC -79.1 -56.3
Per Share Data JAN 00 OCT 99 JUL 99 APR 99 JAN 99
E.P.S. -.50 -2.00 -.63 -.24 -.13
Sequential E.P.S. Pct Chg(vs. Qtr Before) NA NA NA NA NA
Dividends/Shr .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
Share Price High
Share Price Low
Balance Sheet Items as of: January 31, 2000
ASSETS($Mill) LIABILITIES & OWNER`S EQUITY($Mil)
Current Assets 161.5 Current Liabilities 14.5
Cash & Equivalents 148.5 Short Term Debt .6
Property,Plant and Equipment 2.9 Long Term Debt .6
Intangibles .0 Other Liabilities .0
Other Assets .9 StockHolder`s Equity 150.1
Total Assets 165.3 Total Liabilities and Equities 165





Das ist der aktuelle Kommentar von marketwatch:
Hat irgendwie was zynisches...



Take VA Linux Systems (LNUX: news, msgs), one of the stock market`s biggest outta-the-gates success stories. When this issue hit the Street and climbed as high as $320 a share, visions of an early retirement danced through shareholders` heads. See archived story.

Boy oh boy, what a difference $290 makes.


The stock closed at 28 15/16 to end the hideous week and beaten-down longs, like DefDog on Raging Bull, could hardly believe their eyes: "LNUX is a beyond a disaster. That CHART is making history. Future investing books will devote a chapter to this disaster."

And a little tongue-in-cheek from PeteBarnum: "When the NASDAQ corrected, LNUX fell ... When the NASDAQ rallied , LNUX fell ... When the NASDAQ slipped again, LNUX fell. That`s why I like this stock. It`s such a consistent performer."



Das sind die shorties, es sind nicht wenige...

Item Ticker Company Name Month+ Shares Short Avg Daily Volume Ratio* Remark
1 LNUX VA Linux Systems Inc.
03/00 1,637,737 474,879 3.45
02/00 1,690,120 579,837 2.91
01/00 743,252 875,882 0.85


und die Krönung, der Chart.
Stabiler Abwärtstrend seit Emissionstag.







Hat einer `ne Idee, wie`s weitergeht?
Wird VA Linux überleben oder war das nur ein kurzes Börsenintermezzo?
Ich habe den Wert mal auf die Watchlist aufgenommen.



Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[INFO2000]

Hy Struwelpeter,
die Story von VA Linux habe ich nie kapiert. So weit mir bekannt ist, verkaufen sie Systeme mit vorinstalliertem Linux. So weit, so gut.
Aber wo ist der Witz dabei, wo wird da Geld verdient??
Linux kostet nix, ok, dann kann man die Systeme vielleicht etwas billiger anbieten. Aber an den Systemen werden ja auch keine Unsummen verdient!!

Die Frage bei VA Linux und auch RedHat (Chart sieht genauso aus):
Wo wird wann wieviel Geld verdient??
VA Linux hat ja, wie im deinem Posting zu lesen ist, seine Verluste ständig vergrößert!! Wenn ich es auf der VA Linux Page richtig lese, liegen die Verluste pro Aktie etwa doppelt so hoch wie die Umsätze pro Aktie!
Also, ich glaube, da gibt es aussichtreichere Werte!

[Struwwelpeter]

Hi Info2000,

meinst Du, das die auf kurz oder lang kaputt gehen?
Meinst du, die Linux-shares sind nur bubbles?

Vielleicht kann noch mal einer was posten, der mehr Ahnung von der Materie hat wie ich

Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

Die Marktkapitalisierung beträgt bei einem Aktienkurs von zur Zeit 29$
1,2 Milliarden$.
Man stelle sich die Marktkapitalisierung bei Kursen über 300$ vor -
ca. 12 Milliarden.
Der Umsatz 1999 lag bei 17,7 Mill.$
Die Umsätze im letzten Quartal betrugen 20,1 Mill.$, was eine Steigerung von 36% zum Quartal vorher und eine Steigerung von über 500% zum Vorjahresquartal entspricht.
Die Verluste pro Aktie sind mit ./. .20§ zwar besser als erwartet ausgefallen, mit Gewinnen ist aber so schnell nicht zu rechnen.
Die aktuellen Schätzungen folgen unten.






Estimates and actuals are both EPS before extras and other non-recurring items

DISTRIBUTION OF EPS ESTIMATES
HISTOGRAM AS OF 04/09/00

VA LINUX SYSTMS
FY1 - 0007 FY2 - 0107
3 ESTS. 3 ESTS.








O
O O O O O
!-----!-----!-----!-----! !-----!-----!-----!-----!
-1.60 -1.40 -1.20 -1.00 -0.80 -0.68 -0.58 -0.48 -0.38 -0.28
"X" = EPS ESTIMATE ($) "O" = THREE MOST RECENT ESTS.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
04/00 QTR: VA LINUX SYSTMS 07/00 QTR:
EXP.REPT: 05/25/00





OO O O O O
!-----!-----!-----!-----! !-----!-----!-----!-----!
-0.24 -0.19 -0.14 -0.09 -0.04 -0.24 -0.19 -0.14 -0.09 -0.04

MEAN -0.23 ( 3) MEAN -0.22 ( 3)
MOST ACC -0.23 ( 3) MOST ACC -0.22 ( 3)
------------------------------------------------------------




Current EPS Estimates


Period Ending Mean Est.
($/SH) High Est.
($/SH) Low Est.
($/SH) Number Ests. Mean Change, Last Month ($)
Year Ending 07/01 -0.56 -0.43 -0.67 3 -0.06
Year Ending 07/00 -1.15 -0.94 -1.57 3 0.12
VS Actual 07/99 N/A
Quarter End 04/00 -0.23 -0.21 -0.24 3 0.00
VS Actual 04/99 N/A
Quarter End 07/00 -0.22 -0.20 -0.24 3 0.00
VS Actual 07/99 N/A
Next 5 Year Growth (%) 40.00 40.00 40.00 1 0.00


Surprise History


Quarter End % Surprise Actual Estimate Std Dev # Analysts
04/00 N/A N/A -0.23 0.02 3
01/00 4.76 -0.20 -0.21 0.03 2
10/99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0


Financial History


Year End Sales Net Income EPS ex NRI EPS Reported Dividends High Low
1999 17 -14 N/A N/A N/A 207 207
1998 5 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A
1997 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A


EPS History


Fiscal Year 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Year
2001 -0.18E -0.15E -0.13E -0.10E -0.56E
2000 N/A -0.20 -0.23E -0.22E -1.15E
1999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A







Erstaunlich sind auch die Analysten mit ihren Empfehlungen.


30-Mar-00
W.R. Hambrecht initiated: at Buy
10-Jan-00
Chase H&Q initiated: at Buy
6-Jan-00
CSFB initiated: at Buy
4-Jan-00
Deutsche Bc Alex. Br initiated: at Buy
3-Jan-00
Lehman Brothers initiated: at Outperform


On April 3, 2000 Hambrecht & Quist analyst Walter Winnitzki issued a 4 page Company Report on VA Linux Systems, Inc. Report highlights: `The company has continued to see very strong demand and sales momentum from customers. The company should generate revenue growth of 85% over the next three years."


On March 30, 2000 WR Hambrecht + Co analyst Keith Bachman issued a 18 page Company Report on VA Linux Systems, Inc. Report highlights: `Coverage was initiated with a BUY rating based on an emerging services business."


On March 27, 2000 Hilliard Lyons analyst N Tident issued a 2 page Industry Report on VA Linux Systems, Inc. Report highlights: `Tech Times Covering: COMS and LNUX



Die Analystengemeinschaft ist gut gestimmt, im Gegensatz zu den Aktionären, da der Kurs am Freitag sogar unter 30$ gefallen ist. Das war der Ausgabepreis für die Aktionäre, die dieses Wunderteil gezeichnet hatten.

Wer von den Boardteilnehmern kann mir als Laie das Geschäftsmodell von LNUX erklären bzw. wie seht ihr die Zukunft?
Haben die überhaupt Zukunft?
Wann werden mal Gewinne erwirtschaftet?
Ist die Firma jetzt unterbewertet, überbewertet, fair bewertet?



Es folgt ein kleiner Kommentar zu bubbles von motley fool. Der hat mir so gut gefallen, daß ich ihn mal hier reinkopier.Der Kommentar ist vom Donnerstag, so das die Zahlen im Vergleich nochmal erhöht werden können.




The Trouble With Bubbles

By Bill Barker (TMF Max)
April 13, 2000

I`m going to take a wild guess that if I were to read or watch much of the mainstream media`s offerings on the stock market these days, I`d come across a series of questions and answers about: a) whether the market is a bubble right now; b) whether the bubble has already burst; and c) is the bubble finally about to burst?

Although these questions would seem mutually exclusive, nevertheless they seem to be competing for attention. If you`ve been following the market over the last five years or so, you`ll know that the concept of "The Bubble" in general, tech stocks more specifically, and Internet stocks most specifically, has been a source of daily pontification for content-starved media outlets. Given that Bubble pontificators get almost as much media attention as Elian Gonzalez, you would think that there would be some sort of consensus on how to define a bubble, or some sort of evolution of understanding of what does and does not signal a bubble, but I`m afraid that I haven`t witnessed either. It`s just good copy, I suppose, to raise the spectre that there`s mass hysteria over every stock in the market.

I think I understand why the media keeps returning to this series of questions. After all, an actual bubble in the stock market would be a pretty good thing for everybody to avoid, and finding a channel or an expert that could accurately predict the timing of a "burst" would provide the opportunity for nearly incalculable wealth. But the willingness to call nearly everything that isn`t fully understood a bubble is far too pervasive, and I don`t see many lessons learned.

Take the September 1996 issue of Red Herring, which devoted several articles to "the Internet bubble," how it started, and how it "burst" on July 16, 1996. In a series of articles with titles such as "Internet Mania R.I.P." and "The IPO Bubble," Red Herring buried the possibility that investors could ever have been thinking straight when their irrational exuberance led them to do such patently absurd things as:

value all public Internet companies at a total market cap of $9.5 billion
value Excite at a split-adjusted $9 a share (it would ultimately merge with @Home (Nasdaq: ATHM) at a price of $133 a share)
value Lycos (Nasdaq: LCOS) at $5 a share
The articles are dismissive of almost everybody involved. "Thinking of the private investor who purchased the stock of Internet companies in good faith, some pundits were angry. `It`s my privilege to say they`re behaving criminally,` Bob Metcalf, the founder of 3Com (Nasdaq: COMS) said of investment banks and venture capitalists just before the crash." People who ever would have done such things as buy America Online (NYSE: AOL) at a split-adjusted $4.50 a share are summed up by using such vapid tautologies as "The speculation ended for no reason better than that such episodes always end: They must."

And yet, and yet... obviously nothing at all was ending in 1996, nor "must" it have been. Lycos is now up 800% from its high at the time the article was written, and the total market capitalization for all Internet companies must be well over $500 billion these days. At the time the article announcing the death of the Internet mania was being written, AOL was at a market cap of about $2 billion, and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) , among many others, weren`t close to being public.

I don`t want to pick on Red Herring or its writers here. Believe me, there are lots and lots of articles that have come out since 1996 that puffed their chests up just as much about the "mania" that has gripped investors and the surety that it would "all end badly" -- and the need to revisit the bubble theorizing ad nauseam continues today. This week`s Business Week cover asks, "Is the Party Over?"

I can think of two main problems with the form that all these questions take. First, there`s no standard definition of "bubble" though the term is tossed around with abandon. Does it mean something that has, or could, lose 40% of its value? 60%? 90%? 100%? Does the loss in value have to be permanent? Take the most common use of the question and answer about bubbles -- the television. You`ve got the interviewer, the person who writes the questions for the interviewer, the interviewee, and the viewer, and all four might have different definitions of what a bubble means. How, then, is any useful information to be communicated by the media expert, and received by the listener?

The bigger problem about speculating on the existence of a bubble is that accusing the entire market of being a potential bubble skips over the easier and more useful information that could address discrete areas of the market. Here are a couple of sectors that seem to me to have already gone through a bubble, almost regardless of how you would choose to define the term:

Internet
Content
Providers High Current % Loss
TheStreet.com $71 1/4 $6 1/4 91
iVillage $130 $10 13/16 92
drkoop.com $45 3/4 $2 11/16 94

Linux High Current % Loss
Red Hat, Inc. $151 $31 79
VA Linux $320 $40 1/4 87
Corel Corp. $44 1/2 $8 1/4 82

Discount
Brokers High Current % Loss
Siebert Fin. $58 $11 3/4 80
JB Oxford $25 $5 23/32 77
E*Trade $72 1/4 $23 7/16 67
Ameritrade $62 3/4 $18 1/16 71

Please don`t send me flame mails if I`ve listed one of your favorite stocks here. My point in choosing these companies is not that they have failed. Actually the companies listed above have performed about as well as, and perhaps better than, one reasonably would have expected even since their high points as stocks. The companies have demonstrated the growth (in revenues) that was probably projected by analysts issuing strong buy reports on their businesses, but that growth could never have justified the high prices each of these companies had in the first place.

I don`t know about you, but I take a small amount of comfort from the fact that the sectors that flew too high to the sun have already had the wax melted off their wings, yet the market indices aren`t succumbing to the same sort of death spiral that the market-is-a-bubble theorists keep postulating. The fact that bubbles in the market might be speculated on too much and too early doesn`t mean they don`t exist. They just don`t exist nearly as often, and they`re not nearly as widespread, as one would expect if they believed every word they read and heard on the subject.




Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

hier ist noch eine aktueller Kommentar


Sour market pushes Linux stocks below IPO prices
By Stephen Shankland
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
April 14, 2000, 1:30 p.m. PT
update The dour mood on Wall Street has dragged three Linux company stocks below their initial public offering prices, and others aren`t far behind.

Linux seller Caldera Systems, which debuted at $14 a share in its IPO less than a month ago, closed regular trading today at $9.56, down 11 percent. Andover.Net, the collection of Linux and programming Web sites that launched in December at $18 a share, closed at $10.13, down nearly a third. And VA Linux Systems, the Linux computer maker whose $30 IPO price soared a record 697 percent to close at $239.25 on its opening day, today sank to $28.94, a drop of 19 percent.


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Quote Snapshot

RHAT 24.12 -3.88

CALD 9.56 -1.19

ANDN 10.12 -4.88

LNUX 28.94 -6.88




The market hammered all technology stocks this week, but it`s not unusual for prices to settle after an IPO spike. The Linux stock slide has been going on for months. Still, the continuing decline will likely force investors to revisit the ongoing debate surrounding Linux: How does one make money from software that can be obtained for free?

Other Linux companies aren`t faring well.

Red Hat, the purveyor of Linux software and services, closed at $24.13, down 13 percent for the day. Although today`s price bests Red Hat`s split-adjusted $7 IPO price, the stock was trading near $80 last month.

Even Cobalt Networks, which builds special-purpose Linux servers that are a prominent part of the booming "server appliance" trend, has seen better days. After a December IPO--in which its share price was set at $22 and then rose to $128.13 on opening day--it plunged 23 percent to $41.50 today.

Linux is a clone of and competitor to Unix, though analysts agree it doesn`t have the high-end features that allow it to work well on computers with dozens of processors in the same way as versions of Unix from IBM, Sun Microsystems, SGI, Compaq Computer and Hewlett-Packard. Linux also competes with Windows, which is common in low-end servers.

Linux is collectively developed by an informal network of programmers. Only some of the vast pool of developers work at Linux companies. They use the "open source" method, under which the programming instructions for the software may be freely shared, modified and redistributed.

Linuxcare, another company that is planning an IPO, cited the unfavorable Wall Street climate in delaying its shares sale--though the departure of chief executive Fernand Sarrat was the main factor.

Profits are remote for many Linux companies. Although analysts agree that Linux is a formidable force on the computing landscape, the tricky part is making money off the operating system`s popularity. Analysts say future profits will largely come from consulting and service fees.

Linuxcare said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it expects to be unprofitable in 2000 and 2001. Red Hat expects profitability seven quarters from now, according to a company representative. VA chief executive Larry Augustin said analysts expect his Linux computer company to become profitable in late 2001 or early 2002.

The slumping technology market means venture capitalists and investment bankers are becoming less tolerant of long waits to profitability.

The market conditions also can`t be good news at Santa Cruz Operation, Corel, Enlighten Software, SGI or other companies trying to rebuild their business plans around Linux.



Fast unglaublich ist auch die Tatsache, das 37% vom freefloat short sind

Short Interest
As of 8-Mar-2000
Shares Short 1.64M
Percent of Float 37.2%
Shares Short
(Prior Month) 1.69M
Short Ratio 3.45
Daily Volume 475.0K


Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

Heute gibt`s Nachrichten,
der Kurs ist explodiert und liegt jetzt noch ca. 20% höher als Vortag.
Interessante Aktie.







VA Linux Completes TruSolutions and NetAttach Acquisitions to Broaden Its Linux Solutions for Internet Infrastructure
MONDAY, APRIL 17, 2000 10:54 AM
- BusinessWire

SUNNYVALE, Calif., Apr 17, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

Leverages TruSolutions` Expertise in High-Density Rackmount Linux

Servers and NetAttach`s Expertise in NAS Technology VA Linux Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:LNUX), a recognized leader in Linux and Open Source solutions for Internet infrastructure, today announced it has completed the acquisition of TruSolutions of San Diego, Calif., and NetAttach of Santa Clara, Calif.

On March 15, 2000, VA Linux Systems announced definitive agreements to acquire both TruSolutions and NetAttach. The acquisition of TruSolutions gives VA Linux additional engineering design expertise and product line breadth, including an entry-level 1U (1.75") Linux server that complements VA Linux`s high-performance 1U and 2U rackmount Linux servers. With the acquisition of NetAttach, VA Linux will gain not only the ability to create new products in the Network-Attached Storage (NAS) market, but also some of the leading technical expertise in storage solutions on Linux.

The two acquisitions will help to broaden VA Linux`s product line, moving it into the forefront of the Internet infrastructure server and storage markets in both price/performance and quality.

The acquisitions are being accounted for as purchases. VA Linux expects these acquisitions to be accretive to revenue and operating income, excluding non-cash charges. In these acquisitions, VA Linux issued an aggregate of approximately 2.55 million shares of common stock, some of which are subject to the achievement of vesting milestones, and an aggregate of $20 million in cash.


About VA Linux Systems Since 1993, VA Linux Systems has been a recognized leader in Linux and Open Source solutions for Internet infrastructure. VA Linux provides a single point of contact for Linux systems, Open Source software, and world-class professional services and support. VA Linux Systems owns and operates SourceForge(TM), the world`s largest Open Source development center, as well as Linux.com and Themes.org. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, VA Linux is located on the Web at http://www.valinux.com/.

With the exception of the historical data contained herein, this press release is comprised of statements relating to future results of the company (including certain projections and business trends) that are "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1955. Actual results may differ materially from those projected as a result of certain risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: VA Linux`s ability to integrate TruSolutions and NetAttach into its operations; the timing of new product introductions; pricing pressures and other competitive factors; industry trends in Linux, Open Source and the Internet infrastructure market; and the fact that VA Linux has incurred and will continue to incur substantial losses. In addition, each of VA Linux, TruSolutions and NetAttach may achieve results that differ materially from those projected herein. For further information on the risks and uncertainties affecting VA Linux Systems, we ask you to please refer to our risk factors set forth in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed on March 13, 2000 and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be accessed through the SEC`s web site at http://www.sec.gov/.

Note: VA Linux Systems and SourceForge are trademarks of VA Linux Systems, Inc. Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners.

Copyright (C) 2000 Business Wire. All rights reserved.

[Struwwelpeter]

Und hier ist noch eine Empfehlung von Lehman Brothers, allerdings vom Januar.

Dem Kursziel zufolge ist ja noch Luft nach oben.




04.01.2000
VA Linux Kursziel $230
Lehman Brothers


Die Analysten der Lehman Brothers haben die Aktie des Börsenneulings VA Linux (Nasdaq: LNUX, WKN 929398) mit dem Prädikat „Outperformer“ bewertet.

Das Unternehmen stelle Computer her, die mit dem kostenlosen Betriebssystem Linux arbeiteten. Das Kursziel sehen die Strategen bei $230.

Die Gesellschaft habe führende Linux-Entwickler als Mitarbeiter gewinnen können. Einige seien auch im Vorstand vertreten. VA Linux zähle bereits renommierte Unternehmen im Bereich Internet und Wissenschaft zu seinen Kunden.

Die Analysten betonen, daß das Betriebssystem sehr schnell an Beachtung gewonnen habe und für seine Zuverlässigkeit, Stabilität und geringen Kosten bekannt sei. Obwohl VA Linux noch ein kleines Unternehmen sei, dürfte die Gesellschaft über eine gute Position im Linux-Markt verfügen.

In der zweiten Hälfte des Jahres 2001 erwarte man das Erreichen schwarzer Zahlen.



Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

Die Frage ist jetzt:

Wird der Abwärtstrend gebrochen.
Was sagen uns die News? Ist das die Wende zum Besseren?
Inwiefern können die Zahlen von RHAT den Kursverlauf von LNUX beeienflussen?
Kann LNUX zukünftig bessere Zahlen präsentieren, gelingt es LNUX
sich dem Abwärtsstrudel im Linuxbereich abzukoppeln?

Fragen über Fragen, aber niemand antwortet?



Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Elric6666]

Hallo Struwwelpeter,

schau doch einmal in das Board "LINUX".

Gruß

[Struwwelpeter]

Ein aktueller Kommentar...



Forbes.com
Wall Street Sours On Linux
By David Einstein


Easy come, easy go. That`s the story of Linux stocks, which were Wall Street darlings last year but have been absolute poison ever since.

The leading companies in the Linux space--Red Hat (Nasdaq: RHAT - news) and VA Linux Systems (Nasdaq: LNUX - news) have gone code blue, shedding billions of dollars in market value and leaving investors wondering what hit them. VA Linux, which traded at $320 a share following its IPO in December, went into a freefall almost immediately and hit a low of $26.88 last week. That`s below its IPO asking price of $30.

Larry Augustin, chief executive of VA Linux, which makes Linux-based computers, has seen his personal wealth plummet from a post-IPO $2 billion to just over $200 million. That doesn`t even get you a table near the kitchen in Silicon Valley.

Meanwhile Red Hat, which sells shrink-wrapped versions of Linux but gets most of its sales from services and support, has suffered a similar fate. Its stock, which rose to $151.50 in December, four months after its IPO, has fallen steadily, hitting a low of $23 last week. Caldera Systems (Nasdaq: CALD - news), a Red Hat-like software company that went public last month, is trading below its $14 asking price. And a fourth company, Linuxcare, last week pulled its IPO and announced that its CEO was going bye-bye.

Like many dot-com companies, Linux providers seem to be plummeting to Earth after enjoying a giddy ride based on unrealistic valuations. ``These companies were bid up in a kind of pyramid scheme,`` says Rob Enderle of Giga Information Group. By that he means that the more people there were to invest in them, the more people wanted to invest. ``It was like gambling,`` he says. `` They didn`t really understand the fundamental nature of the companies.``

And the free fall may not be over. Because most Linux companies are really service companies (the actual Linux software is available for free), Enderle figures that they don`t have an enormous upside revenue potential. ``The stocks could come down even more,`` he says.

After Red Hat`s stunning IPO last August when it went from $14 to $60 in a month, each succeeding newcomer to the market benefited from the momentum of the previous one. Linux was getting hyped to the gills as big computer makers like IBM (NYSE: IBM - news), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL - news) and Hewlitt-Packard (NYSE: HWP - news) lined up to announce support for the system. By the time VA Linux went public, investors were in a frenzy to latch onto the next big Linux opportunity.

But after VA Linux surged 700% on its first day of trading, investors had to step back and take a second look. How, after all, can a company with $47 million in annual revenues and $34 million in annual losses be worth $9.5 billion (which, by the way, is more than the current combined market value of American Airlines and United Airlines)?

At the same time, the hype surrounding Linux started to wear off. Once billed as a potential Windows killer on the desktop, it began to look more and more like a niche technology suitable for servers and possibly for handheld devices. By the end of 1999, the market had soured on new Linux offerings and was starting to tear apart the stocks of established players.

One company whose fortunes mirrored the Linux craze was Corel (Nasdaq: CORL - news), the Canadian maker of WordPerfect. After announcing a Linux-based strategy, its stock surged from $5 a share to $45 last fall. But since early December, the shares have fallen back to around $6. Maybe it`s time for a new strategy.








...und eine neue Nachricht



Wednesday April 19, 7:33 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
IDC Rates VA Linux Systems as a Top Five Linux Server Vendor in Q4 1999
IDC Commercial Systems and Servers Program Re-categorizes Rapidly Growing Company
SUNNYVALE, Calif. and FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 19, 2000--VA Linux Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:LNUX - news) and International Data Corporation (IDC) today announced that IDC will re-categorize and track VA Linux Systems as a ``brand-name`` vendor in its Commercial Systems and Servers program. With the re-categorization, VA Linux Systems ranks as one of the top five vendors in IDC`s statistics on Linux server shipments for Q4 1999.

On February 24, 2000, VA Linux reported $20.2 million in quarterly revenue for its most recent fiscal quarter, which ended January 31, 2000. Linux server revenue accounted for $18.9 million of VA`s quarterly revenue, with the rest accounted for by professional services and workstation revenue.

The revised Top 5 Vendors for Linux Server Unit Shipments, Q499 are as follows:

-0-


Q499 Market Share
Compaq 18,088 25%
IBM 7,001 10%
Hewlett-Packard 5,429 7%
Dell 5,158 7%
VA Linux Systems 3,645 5%
Fujitsu Siemens 2,286 3%
Other 30,815 43%
Total 72,422 100%

Source: IDC, 2000

``In our most recent quarter, VA Linux Systems grew at over 3 times the growth rate of the Linux server market at large,`` said Brian Biles, vice president of marketing, VA Linux Systems. ``As the only vendor in the top five focused exclusively on providing Linux and Open Source solutions for Internet infrastructure, VA Linux is very pleased that our momentum has put us in the company of large vendors such as Compaq, IBM, HP and Dell in server sales.``

``According to the methodology used by the Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker, VA Linux Systems` recent revenue growth will now move the company into our category of `branded` server vendors with over $50 million in annual revenue, and we look forward to tracking VA Linux Systems in the future,`` said Vernon Turner, vice president of IDC`s Worldwide Commercial Systems and Servers research program. ``Linux will become an important area of growth within the server market as more and more end users select Linux servers not just because of price but because of reliability, availability and performance as well.``

About IDC

IDC delivers dependable, relevant, and high-impact data and insight on information technology to help organizations make sound business and technology decisions. IDC forecasts worldwide IT markets and technology trends and analyzes IT products and vendors, using a combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local content through more than 500 analysts in 43 countries worldwide. IDC`s customers comprise the world`s leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at http://www.idc.com.

IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world`s leading IT media, research, and exposition company.

About VA Linux Systems

Since 1993, VA Linux Systems has been a recognized leader in Linux and Open Source solutions for Internet infrastructure. VA Linux provides a single point of contact for Linux systems, Open Source software and expertise, and world-class professional services and support. VA Linux Systems owns and operates SourceForge(TM), the world`s largest Open Source development center, as well as Linux.com and Themes.org. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, VA Linux is located on the Web at http://www.valinux.com/.

Note: VA Linux Systems and SourceForge are trademarks of VA Linux Systems, Inc. Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
VA Linux Systems
Eureka Endo, 408/542-5754
[e-mail]
or
IDC/Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker
Hoang Nguyen, 508/935-4718
[e-mail]




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Struwwelpeter]

Naja, Kursziel 138$?
Das sind immerhin 350% vom jetzigen Kurs. (39$)



19.04.2000
VA Linux Kursphantasie
M.M.Warburg & CO


Holger Struck, Analyst von M.M.Warburg & CO sieht Anlass auf dem Sell-Out-Niveau von VA Linux (WKN 923398) wieder Kursphantasie zu entwickeln

Am unteren Ende des im Chart dargestellten Bollinger Bandes angekommen und nunmehr mit Kaufsignalen in allen oben gezeigten Trendfolge-, Overbought/Oversold- und Relative-Stärke-Indikatoren versehenen, sollte die Aktie der VA Linux in den USA endlich ihren Ausverkauf überstanden haben.

Eine der ehemals erfolgreichsten Neuemissionen der amerikanischen Börse überhaupt habe sich damit seit ihrer Erstnotiz und dem an diesem Tage erreichten Höchststand von 320 US-$ auf lediglich rund 10 % (!) ihres Ursprungswertes reduziert. Solch dramatische Kursrückgänge allein machten aus einer im Rückgang begriffenen Aktie allein noch keinen Kaufkandidaten.

Auf dem jetzt erreichten Niveau sollten jedoch – neben den erwähnten Kaufsignalen der „angewandten Statistik“ – das Wiedererreichen des Emissionspreises und vor allem der bei 36,12 US-$ auftretende Trendbruch im einzig noch aufrechtzuerhaltenden Abwärtstrend der Aktie dem Titel eine nachhaltige Unterstützung bieten.

Bei einer Trendbruchsituation zum Wochenschlusskurs dürfe dann durchaus in Richtung der Kursmarken 60 / 80 und mittelfristig auch 100 US-S gedacht werden, wo jeweils (kleinere) horizontal ausgeprägte Widerstandszonen auftauchen würden. Das in solchen Ausgangslagen so oft so gut funktionierende 38,2 %-Fibonacci-Retracement biete gar ein Kursniveau von 138 US-$ als Orientierungshilfe an.

[Struwwelpeter]

Hi Linux-Fans,

der Chart von LNUX wird von Tag zu Tag besser.
Mittlerweile hat sich ein breiter Boden herausgebildet.
Erstaunlich ist die stets starke Eröffnung und das spätere Abbröckeln der Kurse.
Was hat hat das zu bedeuten?

Heute mittag hat sich auf CNBC eine Analystin über die Linuxwerte ausgelassen.
Sie war gedämpft optimistisch. Was auch sonst.

Sollte demnächst ein Ausbruch erfolgen, können wir uns festhalten.
Soviel steht fest.

Büros in Europa sind geplant.




VA Linux Systems to open offices in Europe
TUESDAY, APRIL 25, 2000 11:18 AM
- M2 Communications

APR 25, 2000, M2 Communications - VA Linux Systems Inc, a California-based provider of Linux and open source systems for Internet infrastructure, is to expand into Europe with the establishment of operations in France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the Netherlands.

The European operations will be headquartered in Switzerland.




Gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

Sieht doch so aus, das LNUX sich nachhaltig im Kurs erholt.
Ich tippe mal auf eine kurzfristige Verdoppelung in die Nähe von 100$
innerhalb der nächsten 3 Monate.
Das gute Ergebnis von Andover bringt viel Fanatasie.
1000% Umsatzwachstum zum Vorjahr hat halt auch nicht jedes Unternehmen.
Die anderen Zahlen sind auch erheblich besser als erwartet.






ANDN) VA Linux Systems and Andover.Net Amend the Terms of Acquisition Agreement
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 26, 2000 8:34 PM
- BusinessWire

SUNNYVALE, Calif., Apr 26, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Effective today, VA Linux Systems (Nasdaq:LNUX) and Andover.Net (Nasdaq:ANDN) have amended the terms of the agreement by which VA Linux will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Andover.Net.

Under the new terms, each share of Andover.Net Common Stock outstanding as of the closing of the transaction will be exchanged for 0.425 of a share of VA Linux Systems Common Stock. Based on tax concerns, the parties modified the previously announced agreement, in which each outstanding share of Andover.Net Common Stock would have received 0.425 shares of VA Linux Common Stock, reduced by a pro-rata portion of cash.


About VA Linux Systems Since 1993, VA Linux Systems (Nasdaq:LNUX) has been a recognized leader in Linux and Open Source solutions for Internet infrastructure. VA Linux provides a single point of contact for Linux systems, Open Source software and expertise, and world-class professional services and support. VA Linux Systems owns and operates SourceForge(TM), the world`s largest Open Source development center, as well as Linux.com and Themes.org. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, VA Linux is located on the Web at http://www.valinux.com.


About Andover.Net Andover.Net (Nasdaq:ANDN) is the leading Linux destination on the Internet. Serving 60 million page impressions to over 3 million users each month, Andover.Net (www.Andover.Net) includes the largest news/community site, Slashdot (slashdot.org); the largest site for programmer resources, Freshmeat.net (www.freshmeat.net); the leading online support site for Linux and Open Source QuestionExchange; and the popular developer e-commerce site, ThinkGeek (thinkgeek.com). With these sites and our other Linux sites such As FreeCode (freecode.com) and LinuxDaveCentral (www.linux.davecentral.com), Andover.Net accounts for over 50% of the visits to Linux destinations on the Internet. Andover.Net also includes cross-platform sites that provide Programmer and developer resources for users of many popular operating systems in addition to Linux such as Windows, UNIX and Macintosh.

The proposed acquisition is subject to various risks and uncertainties, which include, but are not limited to: VA Linux`s ability to integrate Andover.Net into its operations; the timing of new product introductions; pricing pressures and other competitive factors; and the fact that VA Linux and Andover.Net have incurred and will continue to incur substantial losses. Further information regarding these risks will be included in a registration statement on Form S-4 to be filed by VA Linux with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in connection with the merger. Further information on the risks and uncertainties affecting each company is contained in each company`s filings with the SEC, including their respective S-1 registration statements, VA Linux`s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended Jan. 28, 2000 and Andover.Net`s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending Dec. 31, 2000. The above mentioned documents contain important information and you are urged to review them carefully. Each such document is available free of charge at the SEC Website at www.sec.gov or from the contacts listed below.

Copyright (C) 2000 Business Wire. All rights reserved.

Distributed via COMTEX.
-0-
CONTACT: VA Linux Systems
Patrick Fossenier, 408/543-8054 (IR)
[e-mail]
Eureka Endo, 408/542-5754 (Media)
[e-mail]
or
Andover.Net
Marion Scott, 978/635-5300 ext. 160 (IR)
[e-mail]
Janet Holian, 978-635-5300 ext. 104 (Media)
[e-mail]
or
Access Communications
Wendi Taylor, 415/904-7070
[e-mail]
or
Schwartz Communications, Inc.
Leah Barrett, 781/684-0770
Chris Stamm, 781/684-0770
[e-mail]

WEB PAGE: http://www.businesswire.com











Andover.Net Reports Record Quarterly Revenues; Sequential Quarter Increase of 36%, Year-Over-Year Increase of Over 1,000%
THURSDAY, APRIL 27, 2000 4:29 PM
- BusinessWire

ACTON, Mass., Apr 27, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

Fifth Consecutive Quarter Increase,

Beat Analysts Revenue and Per Share Expectations Andover.Net, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANDN), the Internet`s leading Linux/Open Source destination, today reported that its revenues for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 were $2.8 million, an increase of 36% from the previous quarter`s revenues of $2.06 million and an increase of over 1, 000% compared to $253,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 1999. The increase in revenue was fueled by continued growth in advertising and e-commerce revenues and beat analysts earnings expectations by 27%.

Reported loss per share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 was ($.22) as compared to analysts expectations of ($.28). The loss for the quarter, adjusted for non-cash charges, was ($.13) per share as compared to analysts expectations of ($.21) per share.

As of March 31, 2000, Andover.Net has a cash balance of $73.0 million. Net cash used in operating activities during the quarter ended March 31, 2000 was $1.6 million.

Q 1 Business Highlights:


-- Merger Agreement with VA Linux Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:LNUX)

-- Increased unique visitors to over 3 million/month and page


impressions to over 60 million/month -- Completed acquisition of QuestionExchange, the leading online


technical support site for Linux/Open Source -- Released Slashcode Open Source Project for Corporate ASP


Licensing -- Doubled e-Commerce revenues "One of our core competencies has always been to increase traffic on the network and then monetize it," said Bruce Twickler, president and CEO. "Our record-setting performance this quarter demonstrates how we efficiently monetize it first in advertising and e-commerce revenues and soon in Corporate Services. In fact, our acquisition of QuestionExchange will enable us to accelerate the Linux and Open Source Corporate Service and Support. And, our rapid development of the Slashcode enables us to accelerate our ASP (Application Service Provider) offerings to corporations."


About Andover.Net Andover.Net (NASDAQ:ANDN) is the leading Linux destination on the Internet. Serving over 60 million page impressions to over 3 million unique vistors every month, Andover.Net (www.andover.net) includes the largest news/community site, Slashdot (slashdot.org); the largest site for programmer resources, Freshmeat.net (www.freshmeat.net); the leading site for Linux and Open Source Online Support, QuestionExchange (www.questionexchange.com) and the popular developer e-commerce site, ThinkGeek (thinkgeek.com). With these sites and our other Linux sites such as FreeCode (freecode.com) and LinuxDaveCentral (www.linux.davecentral.com), Andover.Net accounts for over 50% of the visits to Linux destinations on the Internet. Andover.Net also includes cross-platform sites such as MediaBuilder (www.mediabuilder.com) that provide programmer and developer resources for users of many popular operating systems in addition to Linux such as Windows, UNIX and Macintosh.

Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this news release are forward-looking statements involving risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, Andover.Net`s limited operating history, expectation that Andover will incur substantial losses in the future; Andover`s reliance on linux/open source community; Andover`s heavy reliance on advertising revenues; intense competition and other risks listed in Andover.Net`s registration statement on Form S-1.

Andover.Net, Slashdot, Freshmeat, HTMLWorks, GIFWorks, AndoverNews Network, MediaBuilder, Internet Traffic Report, DaveCentral, FreeCode, IT Managers Journal, Slaughterhouse, TechSightings and TechMailings are trademarks of Andover.Net.

ANDOVER.NET, INC. AND SUBSIDIARY
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS
(Thousands of dollars except per share amounts)
(Unaudited)

Three Months Three Months
Ended Ended
March 31, March 31,
2000 1999
Net revenues:
Advertising $1,678 $253
Barter advertising 529 0
E-commerce 605 0
Total revenues 2,812 253

Cost of revenues:
Editorial content and related 451 147
E-commerce 283 0
Total cost of revenues 734 147

Gross profit 2,078 106

Operating expenses:
Sales and marketing 1,405 369
General and administrative 1,603 236
Research and development 541 160
Barter advertising 529 0
Amortization of deferred
stock-based compensation 238 16
Amortization of intangible assets 1,209 0
Compensation expense related
to acquisitions 999 0
Total operating expenses 6,524 781

Loss from operations (4,446) (675)

Interest income, net 973 28

Net loss ($3,473) ($647)

Basic and diluted net loss per share
applicable to common shareholders ($0.22) ($0.08)

Basic and diluted weighted average
shares outstanding 15,862 7,804



ANDOVER.NET, INC. AND SUBSIDIARY
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(Thousands of dollars)
(Unaudited)

March 31, March 31,
2000 1999
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 73,030 $ 2,202
Accounts receivable, net 1,329 232
Other current assets 1,167 68

Total current assets 75,526 2,502

Property and equipment, net 1,926 72

Intangible assets 11,331 0
Other assets 148 0
11,479 0

Total assets $ 88,931 $ 2,574


Liabilities, Preferred Stock and Stockholders` Equity
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable and accrued expenses $ 1,770 $ 342
Long-term debt - current portion 1,584 0

Total current liabilities 3,354 342

Long-term debt 816 0
Preferred stock 0 4,626

Stockholders` Equity
Common stock 160 80
Additional paid in capital 116,267 1,359
Deferred stock-based compensation (4,043) 0
Accumulated deficit (27,623) (3,833)

Total stockholders` equity 84,761 (2,394)

Total liabilities and
stockholders` equity $ 88,931 $ 2,574

Copyright (C) 2000 Business Wire. All rights reserved.

Distributed via COMTEX.
-0-
CONTACT: Andover.Net, Inc.
Media Contact:
Janet Holian, 978/635-5300 ext 104
[e-mail]
or
Investor Contact:
Marion Scott, 978/635-5300 ext 160
[e-mail]

WEB PAGE: http://www.businesswire.com






gruß
Struwwelpeter

[Struwwelpeter]

Schluß heute 60 1/16.
Naja, 44% habe ich auch nicht jeden Tag... .
Das war heute der Ausbruch.
Kursrücksetzer sollten zum weiteren Ausbau der Position genutzt werden.
Meines Erachtens war das erst der Anfang.

Gruß
Struwwelpeter