ELAN - 1.000 % for the LONG-time - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 41)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.483.075 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:42:38

[bernie55]

> <

[bernie55]

...... die Mantras helfen wirklich.....


aktuell 37,42 USD - 37,44 USD



...also, Birgit.......mach weiter so....

...schön die Stimmbänder strapazieren....

....lasse , im Angesicht deines Schweißes , die Noten nur so aus deinem Munde purzeln...

.... möge deine " innere elanvolle " Stimmgabel den richtigen Ton treffen....

......mögen sich deine Mitsänger in deine " innere elanvolle " Stimmung begeben......

...und gemeinsam, mit Dir, die ELAN- HYMNE erklingen lassen...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.483.177 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:53:32

Öl steigt wieder

Schon wieder IRANUSA
anstatt Krieg zu drohen sollen sie doch lieber zusammenarbeiten, sch.... Politik:O

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Ja Jungs---ich hab die Energie geliefert---und IHR????--naja FAST 37 gehalten....schon ziemlich SCHÖÖÖÖN!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Great expectations for the stock market's star player
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/great-expectations-…
Great expectations for the stock market's star player

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Articles

* Firm's top revenue generator Tysabri will soon be 'biggest game in town again'
* Alzheimer's drug may net billions for Elan
* Raising our stock
* THE medicine Man
* A hard act to follow and a lot of ground to make up
* Markets: Bank action sees shares rebound
* Where the rich are putting all their money

Topics

* Elan Corporation plc
* Irish Stock Exchange
* Kelly Martin
* Financial Services Sector
* Enron Corporation
* Banking Services
* Private Banking

Also in Irish

* Fears on Irish banks' capital weakness drives capitulation
* Anglo delays review of building firm's debt as sales stall
* CityJet to double seats on Shannon to Paris
* Skyrocketing oil prices and three finds give Tullow great start to year
* Origin is out of IAWS' shadow

Irish Home

Thursday July 10 2008

Drug-making is the new black on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE). With the economic downturn and the credit crunch gnawing away at construction and financial stocks, and high hopes that Elan's Alzheimer's treatment, Bapineuzumab (AAB-001), will be a blockbuster, the drug company is now the top dog on the ISE.

Shares in Elan have increased by about 45pc since the start of the year, and over 75pc since early March, and the firm now has a market capitalisation of over €10bn -- compared with traditional heavyweights like CRH and AlB, whose market values are now at €8.5bn and €7bn respectively.

Trading at the €23 level in Dublin and at around $35 on the New York Stock Exchange, the stock has yet to recover all the ground it has lost since its first major collapse in 2001, and investors could be forgiven for being sceptical -- Elan has traditionally had a tempestuous relationship with stock markets and volatility has often played a part in its share price performance. Back in 2005, Elan shares also suffered a massive fall from grace when they were suspended, after three cases of a potentially fatal brain infection, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), cropped up in patients using the company's Multiple Sclerosis treatment, Tysabri (see panel).

The volatility is partly because drug-making/development is a very risky business, with various levels of success expected from the many drugs being tested. In the case of Elan/Wyeth's Alzheimer's treatment, there is a huge range in broker expectations for the annual sales of Bapineuzumab, or AAB-001, in 2015 -- from the $4.5bn level to over $10bn. Volatility and uncertainty is also boosted by past failure in the Alzheimer's treatment field, as well as looming competition from other companies, such as Eli Lilly and Myriad Genetics. In addition, the eventual threat of cheaper, generic drugs is also an issue with development.

But the potential for the drug is what analysts are looking at and it is based on the rise in the ageing population, with the baby-boomers feeding into this trend. There are 15 million to 18 million Alzheimer's sufferers in the world, but some analysts believe this figure could reach 48 million by 2050. In estimating the sales potential for AAB-001, they have factored in the number of people that could be on the drug by then, as well as the price of the drug per patient.

And up to now, the news on Alzheimer's from Elan/Wyeth has been pretty positive. Elan and Wyeth's AAB-001 worked for a substantial proportion of Alzheimer's disease patients in a recent intermediate clinical trial, supporting a prior decision to start final phase III tests.

Although the drug did not achieve overall statistically significant results in the phase II study, its benefits over a placebo were significant in an important subgroup. And an update on the treatment, due to be released at the International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease (ICAD) in Chicago at the end of the month, is probably the year's most keenly awaited biotechnology trial result, with some analysts suggesting that, if things go well, the phase III study may be pushed forward by a year. According to Davy Stockbrokers, ICAD may answer several questions. As analyst Jack Gorman has said: "The devil will be in the detail."

These questions include the nature and trend of response across dose strengths and the absolute magnitude of response across the various endpoints. The broker added that the conference would also shed further light on the meaningful benefits of the treatment seen in a genetic sub-group of patients known as APOE4 non-carriers, who make up between 40pc and 70pc of the Alzheimer's population. People who carry a gene that causes their bodies to produce a substance called apolipopprotein, or (Apo)E4, are known to be at increased risk of developing Alzheimer's, but many patients still get the condition without this genetic variation.

AAB-001 aims to fight deposits called beta amyloid plaques, which are linked to the degenerative brain condition.

Ian Hunter, an analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers, which has an add recommendation on Elan, said: "What we will be looking for from the conference, apart from the actual data itself, is what the scientists and doctors have to say.

"That is, the people who ran the trials and also the medics attending the conference, and what their perception is of the value of AAB-001 and its use in the treatment of Alzheimer's."

A spokesperson for the company said yesterday: "We will share full data from the phase II study of AAB-001 with the scientific community on July 29 at the ICAD conference."

According to recent research from Goldman Sachs, which has built up a 4.27pc stake in Elan and has added the company to its conviction buy-list, the presentation at ICAD is the most significant near-term catalyst for the stock.

"We are increasing our six-month risk-adjusted discounted cash flow-based target price from $34.20 to $45, based on increased sales forecasts for Bapineuzumab and on using a lower discount rate for lower-risk parts of the business such as Tysabri, other marketing products and Elan Drug Technologies.

But there are always caveats. The broker added that risks to its view and target price include any PML cases with Tysabri and disappointing details of the Bapineuzumab data at ICAD. In fact, estimates from US analysts as to the likelihood of the drug actually coming to market range from 30pc to 60pc, with some more optimistic than others.

In the meantime, Elan is already gearing itself up for the manufacture of AAB-001, advancing its plans to build a €190m manufacturing plant in the greater Dublin area.

The company is expected to look at a number of locations, including Grangegorman in North Dublin, which is near its partner, Wyeth. Some have seen the decision to locate away from Elan's traditional base of Athlone, Co Westmeath, as further evidence that it is planning to de-merge its drug technology arm from its fast-growing biopharma arm. The company said yesterday that it had made no "specific" decision on its drug technology or manufacturing arm.

Elan's spiritual home is Athlone and its company's roots go back to 1969, when it was founded by US expat Don Panoz in his four-bedroom bungalow. In fact, it was the first company to list its shares on the Nasdaq market in 1982 but the listing has since moved to the New York Stock Exchange, and the company is also traded in Dublin and London. Elan started off producing nicotine patches, before diversifying into drug-delivery systems. By the turn of the century, the company had annual sales of $1bn and operating profits of $309m; and with a share-price trading at $51, it had a market capitalisation just south of $8bn. Elan, it seemed, had arrived.

But then things went terribly wrong. In the post-Enron era, investors began looking at companies with aggressive balance sheets without rose-tinted glasses. Elan, although never found guilty of any wrongdoing, fell into this category and had just issued almost $1.2bn in bonds, which were either convertible into shares or repayable in cash.

In late 2001, the sky fell in on Elan. From a peak of $65 a share in June 2001, the stock collapsed to just $1.65 a year later. Rating agency Standard & Poors cut its credit-worthiness to junk status, compounding existing worries about Elan's book-keeping. That year, the company also revealed in its annual report its business recovery plan, and said that a drop in its investments would result in "significant" charges.

The company's valuation shrivelled from just under $20bn to $744m, representing the greatest destruction of shareholder value, more than $19bn, ever experienced in ISE history. Later, some tough negotiations with Elan's bond-holders, together with a share-placing, added further impetus to the huge task of repairing Elan's balance sheet. Further drastic action was needed and changes also came in the form of a restructuring at board level.

In July 2002, Donal Geaney, who had taken over as Elan boss from Panoz in 1995, was forced to resign. After a six-month interregnum, during which the then chairman Garo Armen doubled up as chief executive, Kelly Martin took over as Elan boss at the beginning of 2003.

Without a scientific background, Martin took over at Elan after 21 years at Merrill Lynch, during which time he worked in a range of positions, including its systems and technology arms, debt market division and finally its overseas private banking arm. He resigned from Merrill when its incoming chief executive, Stanley O'Neal, who has since been ousted from the helm of the investment bank, merged the overseas private banking arm, which was headed by Martin, with Merrill's brokerage business.

In an ironic twist, not only did Enron feature in the collapse of Elan's share price in 2001, but it also almost certainly precipitated Martin's departure from Merrill, although he once said: "The only company I ever worked for, the only company I thought I'd ever work for."

Five months before he resigned from Merrill, he testified before a US senate committee investigating the Enron collapse -- the company had facilitated many of the off-balance sheet financial transactions which ultimately led to the collapse of the Houston-based energy firm. While insisting that Merrill had engaged in no wrongdoing in its dealings with Enron, he admitted to senators that: "Had we known at the time what we know today, we would not have conducted business with Enron."

When he joined Elan, he said he was there for the long haul -- and he has stuck to his word -- although in his first year at the helm, the company was forced to sell $1.6bn in assets. Since then, apart from the hit Elan took in January 2005 on the back of the PML cases and some less dramatic volatility in the stock, Elan has recovered strongly.

And Martin has been handsomely rewarded, although his latest salary for 2007 pre-dates the credit crunch. According to the latest annual report from Elan, he waived his $1m cash bonus for 2007 in favour of the granting of options on 73,874 ordinary shares which have an exercise price of $25.01, and he also received an annual stock-option grant. His total remuneration in 2007 was $1.96m, up from $1.79m the previous year. And the recent rally in the share price has also been good news for him -- his shares and options are now worth around $130m.

Still, Elan has yet to break even despite the latest available figures for the company for the quarter which ended in March showing it narrowed losses to $85.5m, or 18c per share, from $93m, or 20c, a year earlier. Revenues were 22pc higher at $207.3m and lower costs more than offset an increase in R&D expenditure. The company expects revenues to hit the $1bn mark this year, based mainly on the sales of Tysabri -- currently Elan's most important drug in terms of revenue generation. But Elan's future will also depend on the contribution from AAB-001, especially in the post-2012 era.

[e-mail]

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.484.781 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 23:29:56

schöner Artikel



Gute Nacht und bis morgen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.484.835 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 23:42:02

Nacht Poppi!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.484.781 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 23:29:56

Guten Morgen

..schöne Zusammenfassung von ELAN`s historischen Highs und Downs...

[bernie55]

Letter to the fine folks at Caris.....


Dear Caris management,

Back in May, I saw your investment note announcing that you were initiating coverage of ELN at “Sell” with a price target of $18. Being a math expert, I immediately determined that if I shorted ELN at the then-price per share of $27.33, I could make a 34% profit based on your analysis. Not too shabby!

Of course, I’m very much into due diligence, so I decided to research your firm, and discovered that you are made up of a diverse group of leading Wall Street professionals with an “unwavering commitment to increasing the value of our clients’ portfolios.” Furthermore, you claim to have “deep domain expertise, unparalleled industry knowledge, and alpha generation.” Heck, that was enough for me! Not only are you experts with unparalleled knowledge, you can also create atomic particles. I immediately put my life savings to work and shorted ELN stock, all the while envisioning myself sipping a Mai Tai on some exotic beach surrounded by hot babes with the nicest surgical enhancements money can buy.

Well, imagine my angst when ELN shares actually went up instead of towards your promised target. But then you followed up a month later with another investment note cutting the price target even lower to $15! My elation was deep, and I immediately upped the ante by selling my car, stamp collection, and a dozen pints of blood to short more. After all, at a share price of $29, we’re talking almost a 50% gain! Furthermore, since you said shares “could trade significantly lower into the ICAD meeting,” I’m thinking I’ll get much of that gain by end of July! My elated mind upgraded both the sizes of the Mai Tai’s as well as the enhanced body parts.

So the reason I’m writing to you now is that, as we’re less than three weeks away from ICAD, I notice that rather than heading towards $15, ELN’s share price has actually increased to $37. Now again I take some comfort in knowing that you possess one of Wall Street’s sales and research staffs who can generate alphas, but I must admit I’m feeling a bit nervous.


Can you please put my mind at ease and tell me again how ELN will be significantly lower going into the ICAD meeting? Can you please whisper sweet nothings to me about how the top line Phase II results demonstrated a lack of efficacy and an increase in adverse events, and how the study failed to meet its primary endpoint? In fact, isn’t it time for you to drop your price target lower? I mean, we’re talking “40% of patients deriving no benefit from this drug and potentially experiencing a serious adverse event” after all.

Normally, I wouldn’t expect a response to such a query, but you do say on your website that you’re a “highly responsive team of financial and industry veterans.” So throw me a bone here, please! Every time I check the stock price, my dreams of frolicking with surgically enhanced babes fade further into the abyss and I’m further resigned to frolicking with my current girlfriend. I mean, not that I don’t find her cute, but for once I’d really like to be with a woman with teeth.

Sincerely yours,
Horizontally Challenged Squeezy


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=250964&pt=…

[Dreaperle]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.485.341 von bernie55 am 11.07.08 08:10:10

Jo, wirklich gelungen!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.487.977 von Dreaperle am 11.07.08 12:58:29

HI! WER bist Du?? Willkommen!!

[bernie55]

06:22 CALLS Early Research Calls II

Downgrades: Merriman downgrades MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK 1.66) to Neutral from Buy, following the co's announcement that it has ended its strategic alternative search and expects to enter into a securities purchase agreement... Merrill Lynch downgrades NetLogic Microsystems (NETL 33.26) to Underperform from Neutral... Citigroup downgrades Philips Electronics (PHG 32.68) to Hold from Buy... Wachovia downgrades Fresenius Medical Care (FMS 59.01) to Market Perform from Outperform, based on valuation... Deutsche Bank downgrades Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV 7.46) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $6 from $7, based on the likelihood of significant downside revisions over the next year as well as Dick's likely move into BGFV's key markets... Deutsche Bank downgrades Tuesday Morning (TUES 4.00) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $3.40 from $4.30, based on the co losing share and gross margin dollars in a crowded home furnishing space affected b weak housing and consumers, consensus for FY09 that may be too aggressive, and valuation... Baird downgrades Emulex (ELX 10.71) to Neutral from Outperform and lowers their tgt to $12 from $16, following preannounced weak Q408 results below prior guidance and consensus estimates due to weaker than expected embedded product revenue and lower-than-anticipated HBA performance...

Piper Jaffray downgrades Elan (ELN 36.82) to Sell from Neutral...

Piper Jaffray downgrades DaVita (DVA 56.67) to Neutral from Buy.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=251243&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.488.688 von bernie55 am 11.07.08 14:05:44

..vielleicht sind sie dick in Short Positionen drin und wollen noch das Beste herausholen......

...das tut uns aber leid....


we want " burning " PIPERs

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.488.728 von bernie55 am 11.07.08 14:09:50

YES! Aber heute kriegen wir erstmal eins auf die Mütze...

Premarket 35,53 zu 35,75-----das Kriegsgespenst geistert durch die Foren...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Armageddon im Nahen Osten
img

Die Vereinigten Staaten, Israel und die Militaristen im Iran auf dem Kriegspfad

Ein Blick in die heutigen Nachrichten mit der Topmeldung über die iranischen Raketentests bestätigt: Sieben Monate nach dem entlastenden Bericht der US-Geheimdienste (vgl. Keine Bombe vor 2010), wonach der Iran sein Atomprogramm bereits im Sommer 2003 eingestellt habe, geht das Gespenst des Krieges im Nahen Osten um.


Israel als potenzieller Kriegsbeginner

Die Kriegsgefahr ist diesmal akut, weil die Flagge des Krieges von Washington nach Tel Aviv gewandert ist. Die Hardliner in Tel Aviv wollen nicht einen möglichen Einzug des Demokraten, Barack Obama, ins Weiße Haus abwarten. Ein israelischer Angriff auf den Iran, der die uneingeschränkte Unterstützung Amerikas haben würde, kann nur während der Amtszeit Bushs erfolgen. Mit Obama wird es schwer, wenngleich auch er Israel bedingungslosen Beistand zugesichert hat. Der Job soll noch in der Amtszeit George W. Bushs erledigt sein.

Der US-Präsident, der am liebsten längst den Iran angegriffen hätte, soll Israel bei seinem Treffen mit Ehud Olmert im Weißen Haus am 4. Juni grünes Licht erteilt haben. Man solle auch über die "Modalitäten und Probleme der Vollziehung" der Konfrontation mit dem Iran beraten haben. Den auffällig intensiven verbalen Drohungen israelischer Politiker, darunter Vizeregierungschef Shaul Mofaz und Olmert selbst, gegen den Iran folgte das bisher spektakulärste Manöver der israelischen Luftwaffe Anfang Juni.

An diesem Manöver über dem Mittelmeer, das gemeinsam mit Griechenland stattfand, nahmen mehr als 100 israelische Kampfflugzeuge teil, die eine Weite flogen, welche die genau der Strecke von Tel-Aviv bis zur iranischen Anreicherungsanlagen in Natanz entspricht.

Ist das ein Bluff? Angesichts der sich aneinander reihenden, überschlagenden Drohgebärden und Enthüllungen zeigt die Entwicklung eher in Richtung des sich nahenden Desasters. Israels Militärmanöver könnte im optimistischsten Fall als eine Warnung an den Westen, Russland und China gedeutet werden, damit diese endlich einmal mit erdrückenden Sanktionen im UN-Sicherheitsrat beginnen. Im schlimmsten Fall, dessen Ausbruch immer wahrscheinlicher wird, wollen die Israelis einen Job erledigen, den zu vollziehen die USA im Jahre 2008 aus innenpolitischen Gründen nicht mehr in der Lage sind, so ein iranischer Analytiker.

Immerhin hat Israel keine Probleme hinsichtlich des Widerstandes der Bevölkerung, da Irans Staatspräsident Mahmoud Ahmadinedschad mit seinen martialischen Reden den Israelis genug Furcht eingepflanzt hat. Die Israelis sind seit einiger Zeit verstärkt bemüht, Irans Verbindungen in der Region zu sprengen. Die Verhandlungen mit Syrien und der Hamas sind in diesem Kontext zu verstehen.

Die Amerikaner selbst bereiten den Boden für die Effizienz eines solchen Angriffes. Sollte der Bericht des amerikanischen Enthüllungsjournalisten Seymour Hersh stimmen, dass die USA mit 400 Mio. US-Dollar eine umfassende Sabotage-Operation im Iran durchführen, um das Regime zu destabilisieren, dann wird die unheilige Allianz zwischen Washington und Tel Aviv, die eine aktive Konfrontation mit dem Mullah-Regime zum Ziel hat, deutlicher.

Der Iran ist ein Vielvölkerstaat mit etlichen separatistischen Bewegungen in seinen Grenzprovinzen. Eine der heiklen Angelegenheiten der US-Geheimoperation ist vor allem die Unterstützung der sunnitisch-fundamentalistischen separatistischen Terrorgruppe "Dschundallah", die in der iranischen Südostprovinz Balutschistan eine ähnliche Struktur und Aktivität wie die der Al-Qaida aufweist (Auch Iran reiht sich in die "Gated Nations" ein). Es ist auch anzunehmen, dass die Konservativen in den USA aus einer explosiven Krise Nutzen ziehen könnten, da in Zeiten des Krieges bzw. der terroristischen Gefahr die Amerikaner eher einen erfahrenen Präsidenten mit eiserner Entschlossenheit vertrauen. John McCain würde es leichter haben, ins Weiße Haus zu ziehen.


Teheran: Fragile Vernunft und massive Kriegsvorbereitung

Die amerikanisch-israelischen Drohgebärden sind in Teheran angekommen. Die Reaktion drückt sich in unstimmigen Positionen zum Angebotspaket aus, das der EU Außenbeauftragte Javier Solana Mitte Juni Ahmadinedschads Regierung in Teheran unterbereitet hat. Die bisher weitgehendsten militärischen Vorkehrungen begleitet mit verschärften Vergeltungsdrohungen sind die sichtbareren Reaktionen der Islamischen Republik Iran. Das Angebotspaket weist geringfügige Veränderung zu dem im August 2006 gegenüber dem Iran abgegebenen Angebot auf.

Solanas Angebotspaket im Namen der 5+1-Staaten (die 5 ständigen UN-Sicherheitsratsmächte mit Veto-Recht und die Bundesrepublik Deutschland) hat eine für den Iran empfindliche Lücke. Es enthält keine Nicht-Angriffsgarantie. Die sture Haltung Washingtons diesbezüglich macht vor allem die Militärs unsicher. Amerika behält freie Hand, jederzeit den Iran anzugreifen, auch wenn dieser sein Atomprogramm einstellen würde. Eine völkerrechtlich gültige Nicht-Angriffsgarantie mit dem Iran ganz speziell als Adressat scheint wirkungsvoller als die mangelnde Legitimation der UNO für eine militärische Intervention der Vereinigten Staaten.

In Teheran haben einige prominente konservative Politiker den Ernst der Lage erkannt. Ali Akbar Velayati, von 1981 bis 1997 Irans Außenminister und heute hoher außenpolitischer Berater des Obersten Religionsführers Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warnte vor "provokativen Äußerungen" und empfahl die Annahme des Angebotspakets. Für Velayati reicht als Grund, dass die Amerikaner sich eine Absage des Irans wünschen, um dann Vorwände zum Zuschlagen zu bekommen.

Auch Außenminister Manutchehr Motaki schlägt nun moderatere Töne an. Ein Problem könnte sein, dass der Westen sich diesmal eine eindeutige Antwort des Iran wünscht und dass er der vier Jahre lang währenden doppelten Politik, die gleichzeitig verschiedene Positionen des Iran beinhaltete, mit der er sich alle Türen offen ließ, müde geworden ist. Jedenfalls soll sich Solana positiv über die Signale aus Teheran geäußert haben.

Völlig abgesehen von der fragilen Politik laufen im Iran die sorgfältigen Vorbereitungen auf eine militärische Konfrontation, die sowohl die Aufrüstung als auch die martiale Rhetorik mit einschließen, auf Hochtouren. Der Brigadegeneral der Revolutionswächter, Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh, berichtete von der Bereitstellung von 20.000 Gräbern in den iranischen Grenzprovinzen für die Aggressoren. Bagherzadeh, der die Abteilung für die Suche nach vermissten Soldaten leitet, sprach von insgesamt 320.000 Gräbern. Bagherzadeh erinnert an den ehemaligen irakischen Informationsminister Mohammed Sajjid el Sahhaf, der wegen seiner grotesken Lageeinschätzungen während des Irak-Krieges bekannt wurde.

Noch ernster sind die Worte des Oberbefehlshabers der Revolutionswächter, Generalmajor Mohammad Ali Dschafari zu nehmen. "Ein US-Angriff ist ernster geworden", sagte Dschafari, der deutlich machte, dass Teheran mit einem Krieg rechnet und darauf vorbereitet ist. Dschafari warnte die Nachbarstaaten vor einem Angriff auf den Iran über ihre Territorien. Damit sind die arabischen Verbündeten der USA gemeint.

Der General machte auf die mangelnde strategische Tiefe Israels (ein winziges Land, das unter Reichweite iranischer Raketen liegt) und seine Verwundbarkeit aufmerksam. Der Iran habe nicht vor, in seinen Grenzen sitzen zu bleiben und zu warten, bis er angegriffen werde. Er sprach auch über die Maßnahmen zur Minderung und Begrenzung des Schadens durch einen Angriff. Das ist eine dramatische Aussage, die im Kern beinhaltet, dass Teheran einen Militärschlag erwartet und Maßnahmen ergreifen will, um vernichtenden Schaden abzuwenden.

Auf die Frage, ob der Iran sich im Falle eines Angriffes an die internationale Institutionen (UNO) wenden würde, antwortete Dschafari, dass Teheran kein Vertrauen in diese Institutionen habe. Man werde sich auf die umfassenden militärischen und nicht-militärischen Kapazitäten des Landes besinnen. Das ist eine Anspielung auf den Irak, der sich zur umfassenden Zusammenarbeit bereit erklärte und dennoch später angegriffen wurde.

Unmittelbar nach dem Bericht von Seymour Hersh gab die Führung der Revolutionswächter umfassende landesweite Reorganisierungsmaßnahmen und Personalveränderungen auf der Kommandoebene der Revolutionswächter zum Zwecke einer effizienteren Verteidigung bekannt. 31 Corps der Revolutionswächter sind in 29 Provinzen und Teheran errichtet worden sein, die jeweils einem Kommandeur unterstehen und relativ dezentral Entscheidungen in ihrer Gebietshoheit treffen können. Die Neuorganisation soll auch zum Zwecke des effektiven Kampfes gegen die von "ausländischen Agenten" gesteuerten separatistischen Gruppen eingerichtet worden sein.


Iran ist verwundbar

Die Verteidigungsmöglichkeiten der Islamischen Republik sind sehr begrenzt. Entgegen den Äußerungen und Drohungen vom General Dschafari ist eine Sperrung der Straße von Hormuz im Persischen Golf durch die iranischen Streitkräfte, durch die etwa 25% des Erdölbedarfs der Welt transportiert wird, nicht ohne Weiteres machbar. Die Straße ist an der schmalsten Stelle knapp 39 km breit und somit nicht so eng, wie manche es sich vorstellen. Die geballte Übermacht der fünften US-Flotte im Persischen Golf kann jegliche iranische Störungen des Energietransportes durch den Persischen Golf vereiteln, sowie sie es auch gegen Ende des Iran-Irak-Krieges (1980-88) getan haben.

Iran könnte, wenn überhaupt, nur eine kurzfristige Sperrung gelingen. Die Amerikaner könnten die iranische Küste durch Minenlegung völlig unbrauchbar machen, weil die iranische Marine über keine nennenswerten Minensuch- und Minenräumungsschiffe verfügt. Ein Angriff auf Israel, eine vermeintliche Trumpfkarte, kann nur durch Raketenbeschuss erfolgen, da der Iran über keine Langstreckenbomber verfügt.

Auch wenn die iranische Generalität heute die Weltöffentlichkeit mit ihren "säbelrasselenden Shahab-3-Tests in Bann schlagen konnte, die Effizienz der Raketenangriffe ist fragwürdig angesichts der modernen Raketenabwehr durch Patriots, die ihre Effektivität im Kuwait-Krieg (1991) unter Beweis stellten und Israel in einer größeren Menge zur Verfügung stehen. Die iranischen Schahab-Raketen, die Israel erreichen, können nur mit ABC-Sprengköpfen vernichtend wirken. Aber Iran besitzt anscheinend keine ABC-Waffen und obendrein hat die religiöse Führung seit Gründung der Islamischen Republik den Einsatz von solchen Massenvernichtungswaffen für unvereinbar mit islamischen Grundsätzen erklärt. Die konventionelle iranische Armee ist der geballten Macht der US-Militärmaschinerie, aber auch der israelschen, nicht gewachsen.

Das Gerüst der beweglichen iranischen Luftwaffe (Kampfflugzeuge) bilden immer noch die amerikanischen Kampfjets vom Typ F4 und F5, die das alte Regime des Schahs in den 60er Jahren erwarb. Die einzigen schlagkräftigen iranischen Waffen sind Anti-See – und Luftabwehrraketen. Die russischen und chinesischen Anti-Schiff-Raketen, die der Iran zahlreich besitzt und womöglich in strategisch günstigen Stellen auf den Inseln und an der Küste stationiert hat, stellen eine ungeahnte Bedrohung für die US-Flotte im Persischen Golf dar. Hingegen ist der Iran im Besitz einer begrenzten Menge von modernsten Flugabwehrraketen wie vom russischen Typ "Tor-M1", die fast ausschließlich um die Nuklearanlagen stationiert sind. Der Rest des iranischen Luftraums bleibt ungeschützt.

Es ist mithin nicht abzuschätzen, wie ein Angriff gegen den Iran verlaufen wird, sollte das Regime sehr schnell empfindlich getroffen werden. Der Iran ist nicht wie der Irak, dessen sunnitische Minderheit, die über Nacht völlig entmachtet wurde, im ganzen Land mit Terroranschlägen wütete. Es gibt ein bei einer deutlichen Mehrheit der Bevölkerung verhasstes Regime, dessen erschreckende Korruptionsaffären durch verfeindeten Fraktionen innerhalb des Regimes immer öfter ans Tageslicht gelangen, wodurch die ganze gesellschaftspolitische Landschaft erschüttert wird. Irans Achillesferse bleiben jedoch die separatistischen Bewegungen in den Grenzprovinzen, die auf ihre Stunde warten.

Unterdessen haben die Europäer bereits vor der Entscheidung Irans über das neue Angebotspaket empfindliche Sanktionen gegen den Iran verhängt. Auf Vorstoß des britischen Premierministers Gordon Brown und mit Zustimmung aller EU-Mitgliedstaaten wurde beschlossen, die Gelder der größten staatlichen iranischen Bank "Banke Meli" einzufrieren. Weiterhin wurden die Einreise und Aktivitäten von 20 Offiziellen und 15 Einrichtungen untersagt. Diese Sanktionen kommen zusätzlich zu denen hinzu, die der UN-Sicherheitsrat in seinen drei Resolutionen seit 2006 beschlossen hat.

Die islamische Republik befindet sich in einer entscheidenden Phase ihres Bestehens. Ex-Außenminister Velayati, ein eingeschworener Konservativer, der den Ernst der Stunde geahnt hat, sprach hinsichtlich des Angebotspakets von einer "schicksalhaften Entscheidung". Der Konflikt um den Atomstreit könnte das Schicksal und die Existenz der Islamischen Republik tangieren. Für nicht wenige Iraner ist die Haltung der 5+1-Staaten im Hinblick auf das iranische Atomprogramm unverständlich. Der Iran soll zu Verhandlungen gezwungen werden, die auf die endgültige Einstellung seines Nuklearprogramms abzielen und dabei soll der Stopp des Atomprogramms die Verhandlungsbedingung sein, eine absurde Sprache der Gewalt und Demütigung.

Doch gerade die nationale Sicherheit und die Bewahrung territorialer Integrität des Landes müssen die Vernünftigen unter den Machthabern in Teheran dazu bringen, dem Angebotspaket und damit zumindest einer befristeten Einstellung des Atomprogramms als Geste des guten Willens und vertrauensbildende Maßnahme zuzustimmen. Washington und Tel Aviv wird es sehr schwer fallen, einen vierten Golfkrieg über den Zaun zu brechen. Präsident Ahmadinedschad hat nicht das Recht, das eigene Haus mit 70 Mio. Bevölkerung in Flammen aufgehen zu lassen.


© Behrouz Khosrozadeh
Quelle: Telepolis

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.488.776 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.07.08 14:14:36

....und noch ein Downgrade..

downgrades today

Brean Murray and Piper Jaffrey both downgrade ELN to a sell this AM.

Brean says that phase III Bap will fail. What does he have, inside scoop? Or just the boys ganging up on a tall poppy? Probably going to be a profit taking day. Opening bids are down.


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks…

[Poppholz]

wir starten wahrscheinlich mit mehr als $1,- Abschlag zum gestrigen Schlusskurs.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.489.503 von Poppholz am 11.07.08 15:25:27

wer noch günstig nachlegen möchte, der muss sich beeilen.

Herabstufungen werden der Aktie eher helfen.

(nur meine Meinung)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.489.672 von Poppholz am 11.07.08 15:40:00

...so it is !

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.490.266 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.07.08 16:40:02

Elan In Double Trouble?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25639497/site/14081545?__source=yahoo…

Posted By:Mike Huckman

A few weeks ago I blogged about a couple analysts cautioning investors that shares of Irish drugmaker Elan would be volatile surrounding the Alzheimer's conference the end of this month.

That has certainly proven to be the case, especially today as the second firm this week initiates coverage of the stock, but this time with a "Sell" rating. And coincidentally, another analyst is downgrading the stock this morning to a "Sell."

In a business where "Sell" ratings are more common than they used to be, but still relatively rare it's pretty remarkable when you get two of them on no real news at the same time.

Jonathan Aschoff and Ling Wang at Brean Murray Carret & Co. are telling clients to dump the stock which they think could hit $18 within the next year or so. It's all about the Alzheimer's drug Bap, for short, which ELN shares with Wyeth.

The companies are announcing detailed results of their mid-stage test at the Chicago confab in late July. But Aschoff and Wang write that the recent 36 percent run-up in ELN is "unwarranted". "We believe that many issues...will evidence themselves upon the full data release...generating downward pressure on the stock." They call the phase two data released so far "underwhelming" and say they make them "highly doubtful of success". BMC & Co. would like to do investment banking for Elan.

Meantime, Caroline Stewart at Piper Jaffray is downgrading ELN from "Neutral" to "Sell", but keeping her $25 price target. She, too, expresses skepticism about the robustness of the pending detailed data. The bottom line, she writes, in her research note to clients is that she thinks "the recent stock appreciation (is) unwarranted based on the available data and the high risks associated with any drug in development for Alzheimer's." PJ makes a market in ELN.

So, a few Elanians have been showing me some love following my blog post on Bap earlier this week, but I'm sure the love-hate relationship they seem to have with me and other reporters is gonna swing back after they read this entry.

Tom Rogers, who says he has invested "six-figure money in Elan", wrote, "Thank you for the report and the neutral stance you give."

And Linda Langsjoen says, "I guess there will be no umbrage taken by us Elanians. No ganging up, either--unless it's to blow a few kisses your way!"

But then Michael Pohndorff--not an Elanian--brings me back to earth. Presumably, he's an investor in and/or an employee of Schering-Plough.
He complained that I had not reported on or blogged about a new study of Pfizer's Lipitor that he believes may vindicate MRK and SGP's Zetia and Vytorin. Mr. Pohndorff wrote in two separate emails: "Your silence is deafening. This underscores that you are an overly dramatic reporter who used your position to destroy a company and its investors. You are scum for not reporting on (the Lipitor study). Scum."

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.491.513 von surga am 11.07.08 18:53:03

ELN msg # 251496 7/11/2008 12:54:44 PM
By: profitsin2004

Let me get this straight!

- Possible life changing drug to be announced (Just an ICAD appearance with the world watching!!)
- Tysabri head count and sales going North
- Tysabri safety profile and efficacy is better than competition (always was!!)
- Nano making headlines
- Balance sheet gets better each hour!! (credit rating along with it!!)
- Possible spin-off could occur (EDT)

One word for these guys (Piper/Brean) ..............IDIOTS!!!! What a bunch of clowns!

Know what you own, you will be rewarded.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Zur Entkräftung der Downgrades


ELN msg # 251515 7/11/2008 1:19:10 PM
By: shoulda

Piper and Bream

Interesting reporting on their downgrades. Let's start with piper. They have three points:
1. Small size of the trial. This is not news, the size has been known for three years, and the facrt that the effect size would have to be significant to show efficacy has also been known for three years, and has been re-emphasized endlessly over the last month or so.

2. Distribution of baseline characteristics is uneven. Well, the only baseline characteristic that I know of whose distribution is uneven is apoe4 casrrier status. It was not a bseline characteristic that was controlled for, as the differences between apoe 4 carriers and non-carriers relative to BAP was discovered during the trial. It is possible that each dosing arm plus the placebo cohort had significantly different % of carriers and non carriers. Just like they could have differing % of blue eyed people. The good part about this is that it is easy to separate the carriers and non-carriers and analyze each alone. And, even better, they already have! They found stat sig in the non-carrier group. Strong trends in the carrier group. They also designed the phase 3 trials to separate the carriers from the carriers. So, it is reasonable to think "The effect of the imbalances may be substantial, and given the highly variable nature of the
disease, it will be difficult to attribute any improvement in the patients to the drug Elan is testing..." No, I think that is total bull shit. The carriers and non-carriers were analyzed separately and both showed significant differences from the placebo group. Now it is possible that the placebo group was disproportionately one or the other, but unless the placebo cohort was hugely carrier and elan did not control for that in their analysis, I cannot think of any way in which one could have difficulty attributing improvement. This is particularly true since improvement in AD patients over a two year period has NEVER been seen. (G)

3. Post-hoc subgroup analyses can be problematic . They say multiple post hoc analysisare a problem because the more of them coductedbecause the more of them are conducted, the higher the probability of a false positive result. Well to the best of my analysis there was only one post hc analysis conducted and that was on apoe4 carriers and non carriers, hardly the kind f data mining that is problematic. Now if they had said signals in Mild AD, apoe4 non-carriers, with an eastern European background, I might have been concerned. But they didn't and I am not. PS, also please note the relationship of 2 and 3 - beating the same horse from shightly different angles. (G)

4. The biomarker used was suspect. Really? According to whom and why? Brain volume losses are a hallmark of AD. Brain losses tend to slow when the disease has progressed to a relatively severe state because there is not a lot left to lose. And the older you are, the more likely the disease is to have progressed significantly. In addition, elan has the pet/pitt brain imaging study still to be unveiled that will either support the brain volume finding, or not as the case may be. Given the previous academic papers on the imaging of ad brains, I think you would have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to think that the brain volume finding is real.

Then there is Bream. They have two major issues:

1. They have "numerous concerns with the clinical development" of BAP. They don't say what those concerns are, so it is difficult to comment. Trial design seems first rate, 4000 patients seems a huge number, half in us and half in row seems to insure world wide coverage, prestigious research orgs have signed up to run the trials, according to all reports, they are attracting participants and are ahead of their own enrollment schedule. They have stated that the fda has signed off on everyhting proposed to date. So what might those concerns be? Haven't a clue. But, when they share their concerns, I will look at them closely.

2. The top line data was "underwhelming". Well, depending on your expectations, they could well be. If your expectations are rooted in any kind of understanding of the disease, it is hard to comprehend how they could been seen as "underwhelming". Phase 1 had a stat sig difference in mmse, phase 2 had stat sig across the boards for non-carriers and they had strong signals of efficacy among carriers. And, changes in mbiomarkers mirrored these changes. If there was 0 improvement, and merely a significant, sustained change in the slope of the decline, it would be a medical miracle. Now if you were expecting a return to the mental status prior to disease initiation, then underwhelming it was. Of course your expectations were totally bogus to begin with, but that is their problem, not Bap's.

In short, it is the same old, same old. AD is a graveyard for biotech firms, it is beyond the reach of science and they will fail like all the rest.....bullshit. They have cracked AD. Thank God and all his apostles!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.491.760 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.07.08 19:22:30

ich nehme an, sie haben sich zu spät eingedeckt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...ob sie Alle gerade kaufen weil ICH das jetzt HIER eingestellt habe...---es reboundet gerade unser Schätzchen!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.491.825 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.07.08 19:30:23

möglich wäre es

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.491.817 von surga am 11.07.08 19:29:38

ich nehme an, sie haben sich zu spät eingedeckt

.....yepp habe ich auch so gesehen...
...#20013 von bernie55 11.07.08 14:09:50

...wenn ich mal die letzten Monate/ Jahre zurückblicke, da haben wir immer solche " ANALysten " gehabt, die ihren " Negativ-Salm " vom Stapel gelassen habe......und , hat´s was gebracht........

..NÖ.....wir sind jetzt in einer Preisregion , wo diese ANALysten im Traum nicht daran gedacht hätten .......

...also..... be cool..............be an ELANITE ...be an ELANIAC

[bernie55]

...nur mal ganz kurz so eingestreut.....
..irgendwie raffiniert angezettelt von BIIB und ELAN..
...PR nach Plan....am 22.7 - 23.7 - 24.7


Biogen Idec Inc, Tuesday, July 22, 2008 before the financial markets open.( Financial results)

Tysabri, Wednesday, July 23 , 2008 , 2 Year Aniversary

Elan Corporation, Thursday, July 24 , 2008 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), ( Financial results)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

.....und jetzt mal was für HOLGUS zum Auswendiglernen----die Frage,die es dann zu beantworten gäbe ,lautet:

...und WIE heissen die 129 Plätze in denen der Phase 3 Test jetzt startet????

Antwort:



FDA clinical trials site updated in last 2 days to show 129 sites 'now recruiting' for USA aab-001, including our (Minnesota) prestigous (in their minds) Mayo Clinic.

Further trials by Wyeth in Europa show only 6 of 69 trial sites are now recruiting.

*****************************************************************************************


Locations

United States, Arizona

Private Practice
Recruiting

Scottsdale, Arizona, United States, 85254

Dedicated Clinical Research, Inc.
Recruiting

Litchfield Park, Arizona, United States, 85340

Northwest Neurospecialists
Recruiting

Tucson, Arizona, United States, 85741

University of Arizona College of Medicine
Recruiting

Tucson, Arizona, United States, 85724-5023

Sun Health Research Institute
Recruiting

Sun City, Arizona, United States, 85351

Banner Alzheimer's Institute
Recruiting

Phoenix, Arizona, United States, 85006

United States, Arkansas

Clinical Trials Inc.
Recruiting

Little Rock, Arkansas, United States, 72205

United States, California

Pharmacology Research Institue
Recruiting

Encino, California, United States, 91316

Senior Clinical Trials
Recruiting

Laguna Hills, California, United States, 92653

Pharmacology Research Institute
Recruiting

Newport Beach, California, United States, 92660

Neuro-Therapeutics Inc.
Recruiting

Pasadena, California, United States, 91105

San Francisco Clinical Research Center
Recruiting

San Francisco, California, United States, 94109

Bay Area Research Institute
Recruiting

Lafayette, California, United States, 94549

Collaborative NeuroScience Network, Inc.
Recruiting

Garden Grove, California, United States, 92845

Margolin Brain Institute
Recruiting

Fresno, California, United States, 93720

Pharmacology Research Institute
Recruiting

Los Alamitos, California, United States, 90720

Vintage Institute for Clinical Research, Inc
Recruiting

Los Angeles, California, United States, 90036

Private Practice
Recruiting

La Jolla, California, United States, 92037

Sutter Neuroscience Institiute
Recruiting

Sacramento, California, United States, 95816

AVI Clinical Research
Recruiting

Carson, California, United States, 96047

UCSF
Recruiting

San Francisco, California, United States, 94143-1207

Sharp Mesa Vista Hospital
Recruiting

San Diego, California, United States, 92123

The Neurology Center
Recruiting

Oceanside, California, United States, 92056

Neurological Research Institute
Recruiting

Santa Monica, California, United States, 90404

Neurology of North Orange County
Recruiting

La Habra, California, United States, 90631

UCLA Department of Neurology
Recruiting

Los Angeles, California, United States, 90095

University of California, Irvine
Recruiting

Orange, California, United States, 92868

University of California San Diego/Shela Marcos Alzheimer's Disease Research Center
Recruiting

San Diego, California, United States, 92037

United States, Colorado

Associated Neurologists , PC
Recruiting

Boulder, Colorado, United States, 80304

Mile High Research Center
Recruiting

Denver, Colorado, United States, 80218

Alpine Clinical Research Center
Recruiting

Boulder, Colorado, United States, 80304

United States, Connecticut

Associated Neurologists of Southern CT, P.C.
Recruiting

Fairfield, Connecticut, United States, 06824

Institute for Neurodegenerative Disorders
Recruiting

New Haven, Connecticut, United States, 06510

Yale University School of Medicine
Recruiting

New Haven, Connecticut, United States, 06510

Associated Neurologists
Recruiting

Danbury, Connecticut, United States, 06810

Chase Medical Research, LLC
Recruiting

Waterbury, Connecticut, United States, 06708

United States, District of Columbia

Georgetown University Medical Center
Recruiting

Washington, District of Columbia, United States, 20057

United States, Florida

Brain Matters Research, Inc.
Recruiting

Delray Beach, Florida, United States, 33445

Palm Beach Neurological Center/Advanced Research Consultants
Recruiting

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States, 33418

Allied Clinical Trials, Inc.
Recruiting

Miami, Florida, United States, 33156

Roskamp Institute
Recruiting

Sarasota, Florida, United States, 34243

Compass Research
Recruiting

Orlando, Florida, United States, 32806

Emerald Coast Mood & Memory, PA.
Recruiting

Fort Walton Beach, Florida, United States, 32547

Johnnie B. Byrd Sr. Alzheimer's Center and Research Institute
Recruiting

Tampa, Florida, United States, 33647

Miami Jewish Home and Hospital
Recruiting

Miami, Florida, United States, 33137

Miami Research Associates
Recruiting

South Miami, Florida, United States, 33143

Premiere Research Institute
Recruiting

West Palm Beach, Florida, United States, 33407

Axiom Clinical Research of Florida
Recruiting

Tampa, Florida, United States, 33609

Suncoast Neuroscience Associates, Inc.
Recruiting

St Petersburg, Florida, United States, 33701

Clinical Physiology Associates, Inc.
Recruiting

Fort Myers, Florida, United States, 33916

MD Clinical
Recruiting

Hallandale Beach, Florida, United States, 33009

Meridien Research
Recruiting

St. Petersburg, Florida, United States, 33709

University of South Florida
Recruiting

Tampa, Florida, United States, 33617

Neurostudies, Inc
Recruiting

Port Charlotte, Florida, United States, 33952

Pharmax Research Clinic, LLC
Recruiting

Miami, Florida, United States, 33126

Neurologic Consultants, P.A.
Recruiting

Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States, 33308

Melbourne International Medicine Associates, MIMA
Recruiting

Melbourne, Florida, United States, 32901

Private Practice
Recruiting

Atlantis, Florida, United States, 33462

Stedman Clinical Trials
Recruiting

Tampa, Florida, United States, 33613

United States, Georgia

Dekalb Neurology Associates, LLC
Recruiting

Decatur, Georgia, United States, 30033

MS Center of Atlanta
Recruiting

Atlanta, Georgia, United States, 30327

United States, Illinois

Springfield Clinic Neuroscience Institute
Recruiting

Springfield, Illinois, United States, 62702

Southern Illinois University, School of Medicine
Recruiting

Springfield, Illinois, United States, 62794-9643

Alexian Brothers Neurosciences Institute
Recruiting

Elk Grove Village, Illinois, United States, 60007

United States, Indiana

Elkhart Clinic, LLC
Recruiting

Elkhart, Indiana, United States, 46514

Indiana University School of Medicine
Recruiting

Indianapolis, Indiana, United States, 46202

United States, Kansas

Mid America Neuroscience Institute
Recruiting

Lenexa, Kansas, United States, 66214

United States, Kentucky

Four Rivers Clinical Research
Recruiting

Paducah, Kentucky, United States, 42003

Associates in Neurology
Recruiting

Lexington,, Kentucky, United States, 40513

United States, Louisiana

Lake Charles Clinical Trials
Recruiting

Lake Charles, Louisiana, United States, 70601

Private Practice
Recruiting

Shreveport, Louisiana, United States, 71104

Louisana State University Health Sciences Center
Recruiting

Shreveport, Louisiana, United States, 71103

United States, Maryland

Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
Recruiting

Baltimore, Maryland, United States, 21287-2631

United States, Massachusetts

Boston University School of Medicine
Recruiting

Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 02118

Neurocare Center for Research
Recruiting

Newton, Massachusetts, United States, 02459

Neuroscience Research of the Berkshires
Recruiting

Pittsfield, Massachusetts, United States, 01201

United States, Michigan

Summit Research Network, Inc. (Michigan)
Recruiting

Okemos, Michigan, United States, 48864

Borgess Medical Center/Borgess Research Institute
Recruiting

Kalamazoo, Michigan, United States, 49048

Michigan State University
Recruiting

East Lansing, Michigan, United States, 48824

United States, Minnesota

Mayo Clinic Rochester
Recruiting

Rochester, Minnesota, United States, 55905

United States, Mississippi

Hattiesburg Clinic
Recruiting

Hattiesburg, Mississippi, United States, 39401

United States, Missouri

The Center for Pharmaceutical Research
Recruiting

Kansas City, Missouri, United States, 64114

St. Louis University School of Medicine
Recruiting

St. Louis, Missouri, United States, 63104

United States, Montana

Advanced Neurology Specialists
Recruiting

Great Falls, Montana, United States, 59405

United States, Nevada

University of Nevada School of Medicine
Recruiting

Las Vegas, Nevada, United States, 89102

United States, New Jersey

The Memory Enhancement Center of America, Inc.
Recruiting

Long Branch, New Jersey, United States, 07740

Alzheimer's Research Corporation (ARC)
Recruiting

Manchester, New Jersey, United States, 08759

Princeton Medical Institute
Recruiting

Princeton, New Jersey, United States, 08540

United States, New Mexico

Albuquerque Neuroscience, Inc.
Recruiting

Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States, 87109

United States, New York

Neurological Associates Albany PC
Recruiting

Albany, New York, United States, 12208

Parker Jewish Institute for Health Care & Rehabilitation
Recruiting

New Hyde Park, New York, United States, 10040

University of Rochester Medical Center @ Monroe Community Hospital
Recruiting

Rochester, New York, United States, 14620

Upstate Clinical Research, LLC
Recruiting

Albany, New York, United States, 12205

Neuroscience Research Center at Albany Medical Center
Recruiting

Albany, New York, United States, 12208

Columbia University/Taub Institute for Research
Recruiting

New York, New York, United States, 10032

Empire Neurology, PC
Recruiting

Latham, New York, United States, 12201

United States, North Carolina

Raleigh Neurology Associates
Recruiting

Raleigh, North Carolina, United States, 27607

Duke University Medical Center
Recruiting

Durham, North Carolina, United States, 27710

United States, Ohio

NeuroCare Center, Inc
Recruiting

Canton, Ohio, United States, 44718

Ohio State University, Dept of Neurology
Recruiting

Columbus, Ohio, United States, 43210

United States, Oklahoma

Lynn Health Science Institute
Recruiting

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States, 73112

United States, Oregon

Summit Research Network, Inc.
Recruiting

Portland, Oregon, United States, 97210

Medford Neurological and Spine Center
Recruiting

Medford, Oregon, United States, 97504

Providence Health Service System
Recruiting

Portland, Oregon, United States, 97222

United States, Pennsylvania

The Clinical Trial Center
Recruiting

Jenkintown, Pennsylvania, United States, 19046

Abington Neurological Assoc
Recruiting

Abington, Pennsylvania, United States, 19001

Clinical Trials Research Services, LLC
Recruiting

Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, United States, 15206

Lehigh Valley Hospital
Recruiting

Allentown, Pennsylvania, United States, 18103

United States, Rhode Island

Butler Hospital/Brown University
Recruiting

Providence, Rhode Island, United States, 02906

Rhode Island Mood and Memory Research Institute
Recruiting

East Providence, Rhode Island, United States, 02914

Rhode Island Hospital
Recruiting

Providence, Rhode Island, United States, 02903

United States, South Carolina

Medical University of South Carolina
Recruiting

N. Charleston, South Carolina, United States, 29406

United States, South Dakota

Avera Research Institute
Recruiting

Sioux Falls, South Dakota, United States, 57105

United States, Tennessee

Volunteer Research Group
Recruiting

Knoxville, Tennessee, United States, 37920

Psychiatric Consultants, PC
Recruiting

Nashville, Tennessee, United States, 37203

East Tennessee State University
Recruiting

Johnson City, Tennessee, United States, 37614-1707

University of Tennessee Health Science Center
Recruiting

Memphis, Tennessee, United States, 38163

United States, Texas

University of North Texas/Health Sciences Center-Fort Worth
Recruiting

Fort Worth, Texas, United States, 76106

Synergy Research
Recruiting

San Antonio, Texas, United States, 78230

Texas Neurology
Recruiting

Dallas, Texas, United States, 75214

Integra Clinical Research
Recruiting

San Antonio, Texas, United States, 78229

Baylor College of Medicine
Recruiting

Houston, Texas, United States, 77030

United States, Utah

Wasatch Clinical Research
Recruiting

Salt Lake City, Utah, United States, 84107

United States, Vermont

Clinical Neuroscience Research Associates, Inc-The Memory Clinic
Recruiting

Bennington, Vermont, United States, 05201

Fletcher Allen Health Care/Neurology
Recruiting

Burlington, Vermont, United States, 05401

United States, Virginia

Innovative Clinical Research Center
Recruiting

Alexandria, Virginia, United States, 22304

International Clinical Research Associates, LLC
Recruiting

Richmond, Virginia, United States, 23229

United States, Washington

Pacific Medical Centers, Beacon Hill
Recruiting

Seattle, Washington, United States, 98144

United States, Wisconsin

Froedert Lutheran Hospital, Medical College of Wisconsin
Recruiting

Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States, 53226

Sponsors and Collaborators

Elan Pharmaceuticals

[Bachalor]

ich geb es auf






surga

ich hab dich wieder verwechselt


erst dachte ich dü wärst radiologe aus münchen
dann du hättest restaurant in berlin

dabei sind es 2 andere user

sorry
aber ich kenne wohl zuviele user

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.495.839 von Bachalor am 12.07.08 21:02:10

Irren ist menschlich

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.496.307 von surga am 13.07.08 09:07:09

ELAN LONDON

[Poppholz]

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.500.825 von Poppholz am 14.07.08 12:19:54

...endlich mal ein Verein, der weiß, wohin die Reise geht...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.500.876 von bernie55 am 14.07.08 12:27:13

heute starten wir auch mal wieder grün

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.502.050 von Poppholz am 14.07.08 14:58:02

um DICK im ROT zu landen...Sauerei!!Noch mal eben drücken bevor die ganzen Events starten......

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.503.878 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 14.07.08 18:02:50

Noch mal eben drücken bevor die ganzen Events starten

[bernie55]

Presentation Number: O3-04-05

Presentation Time: 7/29/2008 4:00:00 PM

Title:
Clinical trials of bapineuzumab a beta-amyloid-targeted immunotherapy in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimers disease
Category: Therapeutic strategies, amyloid-based

Author(s): Michael Grundman1, Ronald Black2, 1Elan Pharmaceuticals, South San Francisco, CA, USA; 2Wyeth Research, Philadelphia, PA, USA. Contact e-mail: [e-mail]

Background:
Immunotherapy has been shown to reduce beta-amyloid (Aβ), a protein that accumulates in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) brain and is central to the neuropathology of AD. Preclinical studies have shown that immunotherapy with antibodies raised to the N-terminus of Aβ reduce amyloid burden and have favorable effects on synaptic density and memory.
Methods:
A phase 1 study of bapineuzumab, a fully-humanized monoclonal antibody raised against the N-terminus of Aβ, demonstrated single dose safety and tolerability of bapineuzumab in patients with mild-to-moderate AD. Based on phase 1 results, a phase 2, multiple ascending dose study of bapineuzumab was initiated. This randomized, multicenter, double-blind study in patients with mild-to-moderate AD was designed to explore the potential efficacy and safety of bapineuzumab at various doses compared with placebo.
Results:
Patients were randomized to receive either 0.15 mg/kg, 0.5 mg/kg, 1.0 mg/kg, or 2.0 mg/kg bapineuzumab or placebo in a 1:1 fashion. Patients are being followed for 18 months to determine the safety of bapineuzumab, as well as bapineuzumab’s efficacy as measured by cognitive measures (ADAS-Cog; NTB) and functional assessments (DAD). Additional analyses of brain volume by MRI, amyloid brain imaging, and measurement of cerebrospinal fluid Aβ and tau protein levels are planned.

Conclusions:
Information regarding the bapineuzumab development program will be presented.
Disclosures: M. Grundman, Elan Pharmaceuticals, Employee; Elan Pharmaceuticals, Stock Shareholder (directly purchased); R. Black, Wyeth Research, Employee; Wyeth Research, Stock Shareholder (directly purchased).


http://www.abstractsonline.com/viewer/SearchResults.asp

http://www.abstractsonline.com/viewer/viewAbstractPrintFrien…

[surga]

so ruhig hier

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Ich habe gerade 80 Stück für meinen Sohn geordert für 20,20 €--903801 in FfM---mal sehen ,ob das klappt...!Schlau ist,wer VOR dem 29.7.kauft....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 252360 7/15/2008 8:53:05 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

Comfort Post

Tysabri sales continued to accelerate last quarter (according to Mullen several weeks into the quarter) - $200m in Tysabri sales continues the 25% QoQ progress that has been going on for some time.

AAB-001 had statistically significant efficacy over the current standard of care for Alzheimer's disease. This is a 15m patient indication that is growing at 10% annually and AAB-001 will be the only effective treatment for years, and even after another effective treatment comes to market AAB-001 will continue to be best in class for some time. m266 is a distant 2nd to AAB-001, and Lilly's gamma secretase inhibitors will be 50% owned by Elan if it makes it through trials in 4 years and Transition's AZD-103 is 70% owned by Elan.

EDT should get a boost from palperidone palmitate approval next month - something that could bring in $240m/yr in royalties at peak.

ELND-002, ELND-005 and ACC-001 are in trials and ELND-006 will start trials, soon, as will a PD mAb.

Elan is on its way to being the premier biotech company in the world and the price per share will ultimately reflect that in a value that is 10X today's price.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...hab auf 21 erhöht und schwupps-80 Stück für mein Söhnchen sind unsere! Als Alterssicherung!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.511.327 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 15:06:55

20,2 Euro entspricht etwa 32,26 USD. So wie jetzt aussieht kriegst Du nicht. Es sei denn Bernanke würde heute sagen, "ALLES SCH..."
Trotzdem viel Glück

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.511.817 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 15:50:40

Glück gehabt, MM hat wahrscheinlich verkauf?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.511.853 von surga am 15.07.08 15:53:54

mensch---ich bin dem Schicksal so dankbar dass Elanies bei mir so übergewichtet sind....,sonst....

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.511.913 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 15:58:47

tja, ce la vie
ich freue mich für Dich
bei mir sieht leider nicht gut aus

[surga]

BIIB ist im Plus

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.193 von surga am 15.07.08 16:20:35

denke du bekommst sie aber noch


bald kann ich auch wieder was kaufen


wenn es auch nur 1ne ist

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.193 von surga am 15.07.08 16:20:35

das hat man nun von der "RISIKOSTREUUNG"

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.288 von Poppholz am 15.07.08 16:28:51

so ist es!
Wirecard sieht auch übel aus, ich hoffe, Du bist da raus oder?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.266 von surga am 15.07.08 16:26:26

wieviel % dessen,was Du angelegt hast,sind Elanies?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.359 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 16:33:31

40% etwa

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.359 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 16:33:31

ELAN ist zurzeit meine Stütze

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.371 von surga am 15.07.08 16:34:27

...das ist doch nicht wenig!! Ich überlege,die "Reste" meiner Calls auch noch -zumindest tradingmässig -in Elan oder Gold anzulegen...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.429 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 16:39:58

Gold ist auf jedem Fall gut!

[Bachalor]

da ja hier keine zocker sind


sage ich euch nicht

dass man sich mal meine lieblingsaktie ansehen sollte

als zock

cash 5.7 mio
mk 1.7 mio

laut filling von gestern
mal ins bid zu 1 cent in ffm stellen und warten


ach ihr 3( birgit,bernie,surga)


baue gerade intensiv den club auf

ich hoffe es wird dieses jahr noch was

vieleicht zu weihnachten hin

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.530 von Bachalor am 15.07.08 16:47:05

Du meinst doch nicht BIOPHAN, oder?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Bapineuzumab To Become the First-to-Market Disease-Modifying Alzheimer's Drug After Flurizan's Discontinuation

Last update: 7/15/2008 8:00:00 AM

Most Up-to-Date Analysis of the Alzheimer's Disease Market Now Available from Decision Resources

WALTHAM, Mass., July 15, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that with Myriad Genetics/Lundbeck's decision to discontinue the development of Flurizan, the most likely first-to-market disease-modifying Alzheimer's disease treatment becomes Elan/Wyeth's bapineuzumab, an anti-beta-amyloid monoclonal antibody, expected to launch in 2011. The recent Phase III failure of Flurizan underscores the risk involved with developing an agent for Alzheimer's disease.

Decision Resources also finds that both bapineuzumab and Eli Lilly's LY-2062430 will quickly become blockbusters shortly after their launch due to their efficacy and high price point. The widespread use of these agents will depend, in part, on their safety and the complementary use of new diagnosis techniques that would permit patients to be diagnosed in the early stages of the disease, when disease-modifying therapies provide the greatest therapeutic benefit.

"We await Phase III results of the bapineuzumab trials with great interest, both in terms of the drug's safety profile, but also its efficacy in Alzheimer's disease patients carrying the ApoEe4 gene (which is a risk factor in Alzheimer's disease) compared with non-ApoEe4 gene carriers," states Andrea Witt, Ph.D., director at Decision Resources. "Should efficacy prove poor in ApoEe4 gene carriers, patients will be faced with the difficult decision of whether they would want to know whether they carry this gene. Nevertheless, even if bapineuzumab benefits only the non-ApoEe4 gene carriers-a prospective population of 40 to 70 percent of Alzheimer's disease patients-bapineuzumab stands to reap considerable profits in the Alzheimer's disease market."

Two new Decision Resources Alzheimer's disease reports-the Pharmacor report entitled Alzheimer's Disease and Brands & Strategies: Alzheimer's Disease-have been updated to include new data and analysis on how the Alzheimer's disease market is impacted by the failure of Flurizan. Some of the key questions answered in the reports include:


-- How does the failure of Flurizan impact the current Alzheimer's disease
market competitors, and which companies benefit the most?
-- How will the absence of Flurizan change the performance of emerging
therapies? Will the overall Alzheimer's disease market expand or
contract?
-- How will Lundbeck weather the failure of Flurizan?
-- What impact will Flurizan's discontinuation have on the Alzheimer's
disease market over the 2007-2017 time period?
-- Which drug stands most to gain from Flurizan's discontinuation?



About Decision Resources
Decision Resources () is a world leader in research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.530 von Bachalor am 15.07.08 16:47:05

ich könnt einer sein...

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.583 von surga am 15.07.08 16:50:54

man darf doch keine aktien mit namen empfehlen


als zock


ich versuch nochmal

du warst doch mit in berlin bei einem treffen,oder??

diese firma meine ich

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.706 von Bachalor am 15.07.08 17:00:02

alles klar!
kannst Du die denn auch buchstabieren?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.706 von Bachalor am 15.07.08 17:00:02

ach, die Firma!
Du hast mir doch gesagt, ich solle doch lieber Aktien handeln, mit den ich auch verstehe Sonst verbrene ich meine Finger

Von dieser Firma verstehe ich nix, und möchte meine Finger auch nicht verbrenen

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.513.307 von surga am 15.07.08 17:45:47

wart mal ab
wenn ich mal ein pp mit 200 mio aktien mache

wirst auch du schon solche machen





hast du ahnung von elan

aber du hast ja birgit

und berniiiiiii

ich komm auch bald wieder

aber ahnung hab ich auch hier keine

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.513.366 von Bachalor am 15.07.08 17:50:50

dann würde ich mich sehr für Dich freuen
Und Du kannst mich ja danach zum Essen einladen

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.513.615 von surga am 15.07.08 18:13:11

schon wieder

wann war das

naja,was ein glück
bin bei elan doch richtig mit meiner alzheimerkrankheit

so,gehe jetzt 2-3 stunden mit nero spazieren
oder wie hiess der nochmal

alzheimer

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...wir sind übrigens grün!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

und ich war schon wieder soooo in Versuchung,die allerletzten Kröten der missglückten Calls in unser Schätzchen zu stopfen----meint Ihr dieser Elan-Kaufrausch ist heilbar???????

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.513.740 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 15.07.08 18:24:27

Noch mal, Gluckwunsch zu dem Einkauf Deines Sohnes

[surga]

Bei NBIX sieht auch nicht schlecht aus
Seit Freitag immer in Plus

[surga]

deswegen ist BIIB heute sehr stark

Biogen Idec shares rise on 2Q Rituxan sales
Biogen Idec shares rise as Rituxan partner Genentech reports 2nd-quarter sales boost

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/biogen_idec_mover.html?.v=1

[GuHu1]

nur zur info

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/business/16fannie.html?_r=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Re: Kris Jenner, M.D. touts Gilead, Baxter, Abbott Labs and Elan! - April statements
FWIW: What Jenner said in April about BAP - http://elan2006.blogspot.com/2008/04/wyeth-and-elan-trade-on…

Caveat: I haven't done any data-mining on Jenner.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.516.749 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 16.07.08 07:54:22

so wäre einfache

http://elan2006.blogspot.com/2008/04/wyeth-and-elan-trade-on…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Here Is The CNBC Video Link To Chris Jenners Fast Money Piece On Elan Today For All To Listen To
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=794220337 am Ende des Videos gehts um unser Schätzchen!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.512.335 von surga am 15.07.08 16:31:59

Hallo Surga,

aus Wirecard bin ich raus. Habe bei ca. 6,70 die Reißleine gezogen. Anschließend ging es dann wieder nach oben.



Der jetzige Kurs bestätigt mich aber.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.517.478 von Poppholz am 16.07.08 09:47:42

so ist es an der Börse. Aber Du hast erkannt und schnell gehandelt. Das ist schon sehr viel wert

[bernie55]

Davy

Elan Corp (USc)

ELN US

Q2 preview: Tysabri to drive revenues, but higher AD costs will nudge EBITDA loss upwards

Jack Gorman




Elan's Q2 results are due on July 24th. Elan's revenues are expected to rise strongly by 34%, but increased R&D expenditure on Alzheimer's Disease (AD) programmes will modestly expand EBITDA losses on a year-on-year basis.

Loss per share is forecast to remain flat at 16c (before charges). Tysabri is the main driver of revenue growth. Global revenues are forecast at $193m versus $72m in Q2 2007. We expect 5,200 net new patients in Q2 – an addition rate of approximately 400 per week. BIIB will report Tysabri numbers in its Q2 results on July 22nd.

Tysabri revenues of $218m would be needed to spark the first of Elan's potential milestone payments to BIIB. We project that this $75m payment will be made after Q3.
A 10% increase in Q2 operating costs to $164m obscures a 47% rise in forecast R&D spending as Elan's AD programmes gain momentum. Quarterly costs have broadly stayed in a $140-160m range since the start of 2005. Net debt at end-Q2 is forecast at $1,140m, up from $1,077m three months previously.

For investors, the focus remains on Bapineuzumab.

Full Phase II data will be provided at ICAD on July 29th. We expect that the stock will remain strong ahead of ICAD. As R&D newsflow eases thereafter, the stock may pause for breath as investors re-focus on Tysabri trends. In the longer term, we believe that pipeline progress can drive further gains into the low $40s. This carries additional upside on Tysabri upgrades or as our reasonably conservative AD revenue projections expand.
For further detail, see our research note issued this morning.
Back

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=252777&pt=…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.515.431 von GuHu1 am 15.07.08 21:34:53

auch zur Info

Rote Karte für die Shortys

http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_301292

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.518.566 von surga am 16.07.08 11:50:54

...das wurde aber auch wirklich mal Zeit....


16.07.2008 10:53



[/b]Rote Karte für die Shortys
Die amerikanische Börsenaufsicht SEC will das Spekulieren auf fallende Kurse, das so genannte "short selling" einschränken. Zunächst will sie nur die arg gebeutelten Finanzaktien schützen, später vielleicht den gesamten Aktienmarkt.
Die Behörde kündigte am Dienstag eine Übergangsregel an, die Leerverkäufe von Aktien großer Finanzkonzerne wie der Deutschen Bank und Allianz begrenzt. Sie soll am 21. Juli in Kraft treten und für die Wertpapiere von insgesamt 19 Geldinstituten gelten. Dazu zählen neben den deutschen Unternehmen auch die angeschlagenen Hypothekenfinanzierer Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac sowie große US-Banken wie Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs und Merrill Lynch.

Vom Shorten und Nackt-Shorten
Leerverkäufer leihen sich Aktien anderer Marktteilnehmer, die sie als überwertet ansehen. Sie verkaufen sie in der Hoffnung, sie später bei gefallenen Kursen billiger kaufen zu können und an den Verleiher zurückzugeben. Man spricht auch vom so genannten "shorten" oder "short selling". (Mehr dazu in unserem Hintergrund: Shorten wie die Profis)

Die SEC will allerdings nicht generell das shorten verbieten, sondern das "naked short selling" - in einem solchen Fall verkauft der Spekulant Aktien, ohne sie überhaut geliehen zu haben oder sie zu besitzen. Bisher durften sich mehrere Investoren sogar zeitgleich dieselben Aktien ausleihen, was die SEC eben nun unterbinden will.

Die Übergangsregel soll bis 29. Juli gelten, kann aber um bis zu 30 Tage verlängert werden. Die SEC erwägt zudem, für den gesamten Aktienmarkt Regeln für Leerverkäufe aufzustellen. Dadurch soll der Umfang der Leerverkäufe sinken.

Kursverluste begrenzen
US-Bankenaktien waren am Dienstag auf den tiefsten Stand seit 1996 gefallen. Belastet wurden die Märkte von Sorgen vor weiteren Bankenpleiten und Äußerungen von US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke. Demnach steht der gesamte Finanzsektor weiterhin unter immensem Druck und die US-Wirtschaft sieht sich nach wie vor einer ganzen Reihe von Schwierigkeiten gegenüber.

Der Vertrauensverlust am Markt könne zu Panikverkäufen führen, die sich durch bestimmte Arten von Leerverkäufen möglicherweise noch verschlimmerten. Mögliche Folge sei ein künstlicher und unnötig deutlicher Rückgang der Wertpapierpreise, begründete die SEC ihre Entscheidung.

Deutsche Bank im Visier der SEC?
Die Börsenpolizei untersucht derzeit, ob die massiven Kurseinbrüche etwa bei der inzwischen an JPMorgan verkauften Investmentbank Bear Stearns und zuletzt bei Lehman Brothers durch missbräuchliche Handelspraktiken beschleunigt wurden. Ins Visier der SEC sind einem Agenturbericht zufolge die Deutsche Bank sowie die US-Großbanken Goldman Sachs und Merrill Lynch geraten

[bernie55]

EMEA update for Tysabri product information

20.06.08

A number of serious suspected hepatic reactions, including
increased liver enzymes and hyperbilirubinaemia, were reported
in patients receiving Tysabri since the medicine was put on the
market in November 2004. All cases but one were reported
from post marketing surveillance and occurred as early as six
days after the first dose of Tysabri. All cases had at least one
confounding risk factor but two cases were assessed as likely to
be related to Tysabri. In these two cases, liver problems
improved when Tysabri was stopped, but reappeared after
readministration.

http://www.emea.europa.eu/humandocs/PDFs/EPAR/tysabri/H-603-…

[HAL11000]

Gebt mal bitte Eure Meinung zu der unsäglichen Abgeltungssteuer. Habe keine Neigung dem Staat von der einzigen Aktie, die bis dato gut gelaufen ist, auch noch 25 % abzugeben. - Wie die Entscheidung am Ende des Monats auch ausfallen wird, ich rechne mit einem Abverkauf bis unter $ 24. Sell on good news - sell more on bad news. Die beabsichtigte Shortregel schützt natürlich nur die Geldsäcke. Die anderen trifft es dann um so härter. Nur meine Meinung.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.525.994 von HAL11000 am 17.07.08 08:43:18

die Abgeltungssteuer greift ja erst für Käufe, die Du in 2009 tätigst.

Alle Käufe und Verkäufe in diesem Jahr sind nach wie vor an die alte 1-Jahres-Frist gebunden.

Auch wenn ich mit meinen Aktien die Jahresfrist überwunden habe, werde ich keine Aktien verkaufen.

Ein Kursrückggang ist natürlich nicht ausgeschlossen, auch der Verkauf vor den guten News bzw. den Quartalszahlen ist ein stänig wiederkehrendes Bild.

Meine Befürchtung ist halt, dass wenn ich versuche auch "dieses Spiel mitzuspielen", dann bestimmt der Kurs durch die Decke geht und ich dann nicht dabei bin, auch wenn ich schon seit langer Zeit die Kurssteigerung erwarte.

PCBBS ist halt eher SUPERLONG eingestellt.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.525.994 von HAL11000 am 17.07.08 08:43:18

Ein Abverkauf auf 24 Dollar ist für mich absolut nicht wahrscheinlich--informell hört man die Ergebnisse seien "atemberaubend" gut....d.h. auch der letzte Schussel wird dann sehen ,was für ein gigantischer Markt mit BAP erschlossen wird.....und dass ganz,ganz vielleicht wir schon bald ein Zulassungsbegehren (abgesprochen mit der FDA) sehen könnten----212 $ ist das Kursziel....

Es ist eine Google auf biotech-----ich bleibe bestimmt dabei--und auf den Gewinn von Elan musst Du nach 1 Jahr Haltefrist keinen einzigen Cent Steuer bezahlen,wenn Du bis Ende diesen Jahres gekooft hast---erst wenn Du die Gewinne wieder anlegst und dieses neue Investment dann irgendwann verkaufst,bist Du steuermässig dabei....aber das macht doch auch nix--mein Steuersatz bisher lag über 25%.Also: Bis Ende des Jahres gekauft haben und 1 Jahr mindestens liegen lassen + steuerfrei freuen--das ist die Devise!!

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.527.202 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.07.08 11:00:58

212 $ ist das Kursziel
Wie das?
Gruß

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.527.463 von moneyseeker am 17.07.08 11:25:02

212 $ ist das Kursziel

Wie das?

..ganz einfach..

....35......36.....37......38......209......210......211.....212....

Grüße
bernie55

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.528.765 von bernie55 am 17.07.08 13:43:21

sehr vereinfacht dargestellt.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.527.202 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.07.08 11:00:58

einen Kurs von $24,- halte ich auch für ausgeschlossen.

Eventuell geht der Kurs noch einmal auf $29,xx runter, auch wenn es hierfür keine Gründe gibt, aber in der Vergangenheit haben wir auch schon Kursverläufe gesehen, die keinen Sinn ergaben.

Auf jeden Fall werde ich meine Stücke behalten.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.528.839 von Poppholz am 17.07.08 13:51:47

sehr vereinfacht dargestellt

...ELAN SIMPLEX...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.528.854 von Poppholz am 17.07.08 13:53:25

..ich denke auch, dass Kursverläufe nicht vorhersehbar sind....Logik wird uns hier nicht helfen......

...könnte.....wenn....etc....wird uns auch auch nicht helfen....

..deshalb einfach nur auf die " atemberaubenden " Ergebnisse warten......und wenn die Kiste wirklich wieder nach unten geprügelt wird, weil die Daten sssooooo gut sind....

..dann schlagen wir halt noch einmal zu....

PCBBS wird dann ins Unermessliche wachsen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.528.974 von bernie55 am 17.07.08 14:06:49

!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

letztes Geld ist in Elanies verwandelt:160 Stück für 33,75 $ gekooft
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mein Konto hat noch 2,79€----dafür krieg ich aber kein Elanieleinklein mehr...


(Bernie--nun musst Du wieder aufstocken....sonst wirst Du unglücklich....)

[surga]

wo landen wir heute?
Freitag ist Optionstag

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.532.990 von surga am 17.07.08 21:20:39

!

[bernie55]

.....eine kleine Guten Morgen Geschichte aus Yahoo Board...

.wahr oder nicht wahr.....that`s the question.....auf jeden Fall " amüsant " , zumindest " wie aus dem Leben gegriffen....

I feel terrible....

17-Jul-08 07:30 pm

My friend bought this stock on someone's recommendation. He bought around $26. It went up to $36+ and I told him to sell.....

He says ELN is going to $120 in under 5 years. > Warum auch nicht ??

I think he has put all the family's money into this stock and took a loan on his 401K looking for the big one, even borrowed from all his credit cards ...geiler Typ...

He has 3 young kids, and has gotten burned in the past in the market. I know he is on margin too.
He is tickled to death that the end of the month is going to make this stock go to $45, but I have a feeling it is going to go to $25. ....Mitleid....ohhh...Trost...

He said something to me that scared me when he told me is has 15% of the open interest on the August 40s!!! He is nuts!

Should I tell his wife? ...auf jeden Fall....just do it...

Right now he has a profit, but if it falls to $20, he'll get margin calls and be wrecked. .....der Arme....

This is a terrible situation for me to be in. ...für uns auch...

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.534.999 von bernie55 am 18.07.08 09:33:25

....

Der folgende Beitrag trifft die Spielchen um unser Schätzchen sehr gut!!!!Solange man hier nicht auf Kredit kauft ist Elan eine Goldgrube...Ich gehe jetzt auf den Wochenmarkt--statt mich weiter mit dem virtuellen rumzuärgern....


ELN msg # 253595 7/17/2008 11:40:43 PM
By: graytreefrog

Familiar old movie

This is how I have come to look at these events. Distortions and disinformation in the media and analyst community have served many of the same purposes with this stock now for almost a decade. If you follow this company long enough there are patterns. Crapola like this can:

1. Trigger stop loss orders
2. Make aggressive margin players nervous and some will have to capitulate
3. Confuse new self managed traders and investors and prevent or delay competition for shares
4. Allow digified exits for institutional and other large holders of inferior and competing companies
5. Allow options strategies to play out to the advantage of the omnicient who somehow 'saw it coming'
6. Erode the patience of weaker longs.
7. Protect the shelf life of competing and inferior products for another span of time
8. Make the stock appear volatile and the company look too unstable for prudent investors, allowing for delay in institutional upgrades for retail clients and cover while some accumulate at lower prices.
9. In the past it may have offered a brief window of opportunity to part out the company to predators.

Many interests find one or more of these events attractive, so distortions and disinformation seem to cascade when there is an opportunity for critical mass. Right around options week often starts the ball rolling. Add a general market melt down with margin and liquidity problems and you really have a party. A cluster of warmed over distortions and old news will often work just as well as something fresh because there are always a few new listeners, and the ones who have heard it before and didn't understand get another opportunity to mull it over.

Repititions of this scenario have made it easy to simply watch it play out like a familiar old movie. You already know how it's going to end, but it's fun watching Jack Nicholson act demented anyway.

Treefrog

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.535.062 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.07.08 09:40:51

Ich gehe jetzt auf den Wochenmarkt--statt mich weiter mit dem virtuellen rumzuärgern

.....virtuelle Äpfel schmecken auch gut, Birgit...

....auf jeden Fal...virtuellen Appetit...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.535.094 von bernie55 am 18.07.08 09:45:49

Danke! Zum Doko in the evening gibt es italienische Vorspeisen,spanischen Schinken und scheizerischen Käse.....!

Jetzt mal büschen arbeiten... hear you!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.535.745 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.07.08 10:53:38

Zum Doko in the evening gibt es italienische Vorspeisen,spanischen Schinken und scheizerischen Käse

...so `ne Scheize aber auch...

................................

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.537.156 von bernie55 am 18.07.08 13:30:31

---oh jee,der Freud......

...übrigens Bernie--Dein Freund Ipolitt(das ist der mit den guten Umgangsformen.....:rolleyeswartet auf eine Replik im Nachbarthread.....--ein Job für Dich!!

[surga]

sieht doch schon besser aus heute



Das Bild ist doch groß genug, oder Poppi

[Bachalor]

birgit,berni,surga

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.538.694 von surga am 18.07.08 15:58:19

34.48 USD

+ 1.74 USD

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.538.694 von surga am 18.07.08 15:58:19

das ist wirklich schön groß.

Sieht auch sehr schön aus.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.542.344 von Poppholz am 18.07.08 22:59:45

...der Chart ist sogar ohne Lesebrille zu erkennen...

Gute N8

bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Betrunken--und gerade beim Sitzen beim Doko:34,66...

[HeinzBork]

DJ: Elan Prepares to List or Sell Mfg Unit - FT
DJ Newswire
Elan Corp. PLC (ELN) has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) to help the company prepare to either list or sell its development and manufacturing unit, Elan Drug Technology, the Financial Times reported Friday, without citing any sources. The unit could be listed in Dublin and London, or sold to a private equity group for as much as 1.5 billion.

They provide the link...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95add3ea-54f7-11dd-ae9c-000077b076…
Elan ponders future of drugs unit

By Lina Saigol, M&A Editor

Published: July 18 2008 23:36 | Last updated: July 18 2008 23:36

Elan, Ireland’s biggest drug company, has hired investment bankers to carry out a strategic review of its development and manufacturing division, which could see the business floated or sold with a price tag of up to $1.5bn (£755m).

Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs are preparing Elan Drug Technology for a listing in London and Dublin, as well as a possible sale to private equity.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Elan eyes buying Tysabri stake - Oct-16
Elan challenges pharma pricing model - May-27

Elan will send an information memorandum to prospective bidders in the next few days and ask interested parties to submit first-round bids by the middle of next month. Interested bidders are likely to include Apax, Blackstone, Cinven, KKR and Warburg Pincus, all of which have experience in the healthcare business.

Financing an asset of this size has been possible during the credit crunch, as demonstrated by the $4.1bn buy-out of Bristol Myers’ ConvaTec business last month by Nordic Capital and US-based fund Avista Capital Partners.

The decision to float or sell Elan Drug Technology follows the results of clinical trials last month which could herald a breakthrough in treating Alzheimer’s disease after Elan said its drug slowed the onset of the disease in some patients.

Analysts at Goldman said the trials lowered the risk profile for other drugs in Elan’s research and development pipeline.

The move to separate EDT, which relies on manufacturing revenues and royalties, rather than product sales, will leave Elan focused on biopharmaceuticals – the division that markets Tysabri, its flagship multiple sclerosis drug.

EDT focuses on contract product development using an array of formulation and drug optimisation technologies, as well as scale-up and manufacturing services.

In May, Elan, which is recovering from a brush with bankruptcy in 2002, said the company was expected to return to profitability next year, before making a full-year profit in 2010, due to growing sales of Tysabri.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.542.923 von HeinzBork am 19.07.08 09:41:00

Elan, Ireland’s biggest drug company, has hired investment bankers to carry out a strategic review of its development and manufacturing division, which could see the business floated or sold with a price tag of up to $1.5bn (£755m).

Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs are preparing Elan Drug Technology for a listing in London and Dublin, as well as a possible sale to private equity.

...ich kann mir beim besten Willen nicht vorstellen, dass ELAN zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt ihre DT verkaufen will.....sie sagten zwar, dass sie die Daten aus der PII abwarten wollten, um dann zu entscheiden, was mit der DT Abteilung passieren solle....aber !!!..

..ich sehe diese Ankündigung eher als " gelungene PR ".....

...einfach mal mehr auf sich aufmerksam machen, so nach dem Motto.....es gibt neben TY und BAP ja noch was anderes , was ELAN attraktiv macht.....

...wenn es wirklich Interessenten geben sollten, dann wird die EDT Sparte auf jeden Fall für mehr als $1.5bn (£755m) veräußert...


...bezüglich des Listings der EDT Sparte an der Börse habe ich aktuell überhaupt keinen Plan, wie das ablaufen könnte.....

Würden wir als ELAN Aktionäre dann eine entsprechend prozentuale Anzahl von EDT Aktien bekommen ???

..time will tell..



Grüße bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

"Würden wir als ELAN Aktionäre dann eine entsprechend prozentuale Anzahl von EDT Aktien bekommen ???"----ich glaube schon.....weil ja der Kurs der Elan-Aktie dann um den Wert der EDT vermindert sein müsste.....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Sunday Business Post, Part 1,



By Samantha

McCaughren

0 Kelly

Martin

AGE: 49

APPEARANCE: relaxed business suits, penchant fort/-necks

NEWSWORTHINESS:

as chief executive of Elan, he is in the spotlight as the company reports half-year results on Thursday, and will give much- anticipated detail on a newAlzheimer's drug

When troubleshooter G Kelly Martin was appointed chief executive of a very troubled Elan back in 2003, most

believed he was appointed to clean it up and sell it on. His contract included a $5 million payout if he sold the drugs company within a year, fuelling suspicions that he would be in and'out of the company in record time.

However, Martin - a former executive in Merrill Lynch - insisted he was there for the long haul. He has been true to his word and was right not to set his sights on making a fast buck five years ago, as his shares and options in the drugs company are now worth around $130 million.

Elan has had a wildly tempestuous relationship with stock markets since the start of the decade, with its shares soaring and collapsing more than once during the past few years.

The company's shares have been the biggest gainer on the Irish Stock Exchange since the start of the year, and are trading on the New York Stock Exchange for close to $34. Investors are asking whether Elan can follow through this time. Certainly, it has reclaimed a title many thought it would never hold again - that of Ireland's largest quoted company.

Elan announces half-year results on Thursday, and this week marks the twoyear anniversary of the return of multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tysabri to the market after it was withdrawn over safety fears in 2005. Most important, detailed information on the company's great hope, the AAB-001 Alzheimer's drug, is due on July 29.

The firm's share price is riding high ahead of this data release, and some believe Martin may well be sitting on potentially one of the biggest-selling drugs of all time.

American-born Martin was a Merrill Lynch lifer when, at the age of 44, he decided to take his first chief executive position. At the time, one article questioned why he selected "such a doozy" of a company as Elan to test his leadership ability.

Elan was in dire straits when Martin took the reins, having seen its share price fall spectacularly from over $60 to less than $2. In 2002, Elan was hit by a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into its accounting practices at a time when disgraced energy firm Enron was in the dock, although no wrongdoing was ever uncovered. There were also question marks over some of the company's drugs at the time - with any hopes for the Irish firm being seen as too ambitious.

In 2003, one market insider said that analysts were listening into company briefings for a laugh, such was the disre

gard for the company at the time.

On the other hand, Martin was well respected at Merrill Lynch, although some felt he had been passed over for promotion. At Merrill Lynch, he was chosen to defend the company publicly at the Senate hearings on the Enron Corporation in 2002, although he wasn't himself involved in Merrill's dealings with Enron.

He was undoubtedly an unusual choice for the ailing drugs company, with no experience in the pharma sector. However, with hindsight, a number of people have described him as the "right man for the right job", and he is much admired in the investment community. Analysts say that, not only did he want to turn around the company rather than sell it, but that he has made it clear he wants to stay on at Elan for sometime to come.

"Kelly Martin came into Elan at a difficult time and was able to steer it through financial crisis, and is now looking to develop the full commercial potential of its drugs in the market and coming to market," said Ian Hunter, analyst with Goodbody.

One market insider who met Martin just weeks after he took over at Elan was impressed by how quickly he was able to assess the company and decide on action.

Martin identified early on that it had too many manufacturing operations and that there was a need to scale back joint ventures. He took steps to get the company back on a sound financial footing, selling assets worth $2 billion, slashing the workforce and beating market expectations in the process.

Martin also got the company's debt problems under control, having once said that the company was great scientifically but "overengineered financially".

"The decision to put him in was absolutely the right one. He has dealt with all the issues - both foreseen and unforeseen, and he has dealt with them really well. He has managed to handle all the different stakeholders, like investors, bond holders and patients, in a really visible way," said one Dublin analyst.

However, just as the company was getting investors back on board, disaster struck in 2005, when Tysabri was linked to a potentially fatal brain disease and pulled off the market.

Former Elan executiveTom Lynch, who is now chief executive of drugs company Amarin, believes that it was during this period that Martin showed his true abilities.

"We thought at the end of 2004 all our troubles were behind us. Then the safety issue withTysabri emerged and I think Kelly handled that remarkably well," said Lynch. "It must have been very, very difficult - given that the share price went from $20 to $3 and people assumed that the drug was never going to come back to market.

"To hold the company together during that period was an example of terrific leadership," he said.
On a personal level, Martin is well liked, though there is little doubt that he has a tough streak. Kelly has Irish roots through hisTipperary-born maternal grandmother and is married to Liz, a former journalist, with whom he has five children.

He is described as calm, even-handed and self-deprecating. He is not keen on having his photograph taken by newspaper photographers, and one acquaintance said he dislikes being the centre of attention.

A former colleague said that he was utterly focused and a very cool customer. He said Martin knew exactly what he wanted to do with the company - a view shared by analysts and former colleagues alike.

Although he presents a serious demeanour in press conferences and agms, many people comment on his sense of humour and sharp wit. Brokers like the fact that he makes a point of being transparent, keeps expectations realistic and has been an effective controller of costs.

Jack Gorman, analyst with stockbrokers Davy, said the impression he had was of an even-handed man who was fair in his communication with all stakeholders.

"I think his reputation and his perception in the industry have been on the rise over the past four or five years. Now he is ideally placed to deal with his next challenge, which is basically to manage a business that is making cash and profits over the next five years," said Gorman.

Another analyst said Martin was "very likeable and easy to chat to".

"You always get the sense that he doesn't suffer fools gladly. I would think he is an absolutely fantastic negotiator. He has had to deal with so many problems, yet has managed to brazen it out - negotiating must be one of his strongest characteristics," he said.

Lynch was impressed by his ability to learn quickly. "When you operate at that kind of level in Wall Street, you don't survive unless you are a quick learner."

Although Martin wasn't from a pharmaceutical background, Lynch said this did not go against him. "Kelly had a reputation from within Merrill Lynch as a very safe pair of hands and an effective trouble shooter. [Considering] where Elan was at between 2003 and 2005, that's exactly what the company needed.

"The company has plenty of people with pharmaceutical experience. What was needed was calm mature leadership at the top," said Lynch.

"He showed himself to be a good listener and also took a deep dive into research operations and really mastered the issues associated with research and development."

Turning around a business can be a bloody process and enemies are often created by the tough actions of a troubleshooter. But Lynch said this had not happened with Martin.

"He took time to make up his mind - both on people and strategy. In some respects, maybe Elan had made too many fast decisions over the previous five years. I think Kelly has respect and admiration from the board level down."

He kept key management people on board when he took over, and a number of people who spoke about Martin also praised his chief financial officer, Shane

Cook, who was there before Martin joined.

Market insiders have high regard for Martin: one commented that, "if anything, this guy is one of the best I've seen and he's getting better".

After being derided for his decision to take the helm at Elan five years ago, he is now seen as a serious player on the international chief executive stage. When the Merrill Lynch top job came up for grabs last November, CNBC speculated that Martin would be a contender, along with just a couple of other names.

Results published next week should give more details onTysabri's performance, and Martin's ability to get maximum sales out of the MS drug will be watched. But of more importance is the detailed data on AAB-001, to be presented at the International Conference of Alzheimer's Disease.

Data released in May gave good news about the drug, but left plenty of room for the doubters to feel their concerns might yet be confirmed. It seems that the drug has had significant results in a subgroup of Alzheimer's patients. The impact on Alzheimer's gene carriers is uncertain.

Optimism surrounding the drug is buoying Elan's share price, which has jumped 75 per cent since March - very much against the markets' downward trend. At the moment, there are mixed views on AAB-001. When the full data comes out this month, people will no longer be able to sit on the fence with Elan. Alzheimer's is a growing problem in the west and, if the drug is successful, some estimate revenues could top $13 billion.

From Lynch's perspective, Martin's success is well deserved. "Kelly is a fisherman and, like all fishermen, he has patience in volumes. He's been able to wait for the good times to come - and he deserves it."

Others in the markets believe that Martin has still some way to go and has yet to realise the immense hopes of the Alzheimer's drug, which still has a phase III trial to complete. Considerable uncertainties and risks remain, and any health scares for it - orTysabri - would once again send the share price reeling.

But Martin's record to date has shown that he is well placed to steer Elan through the waters ahead, be they smooth or turbulent.

[moneyseeker]

Wenn das mal richtig was wird hat mans verdient.
All die vielen langen Texte....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.546.697 von moneyseeker am 20.07.08 18:58:20

!!

[bernie55]

Roche offers $44B for remaining Genentech shares

7/21/2008 1:43:00 AM (AP)


BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Roche Holding on Monday said it was offering $43.7 billion to take over the remaining shares of Genentech Inc.
Roche, which already owns 55.9 percent of the San Francisco-based drug maker, said it was offering $89 per share, 8.8 percent above the closing price Friday and 19 percent above the price a month ago. It's the largest offer ever made by a Swiss concern for a takeover.

"The combined entity will be the seventh largest U.S. pharmaceuticals company in terms of market share," Roche said in a statement.

It will generate more than $15 billion in annual revenue and employ a total of about 25,000 people in the U.S., the statement said. The company did not specify how many of the 10,700 employees of Genentech would be retained.

Genentech did not immediately return a message seeking comment.

Franz Humer, Roche board chairman, said, "Our long and successful participation in Genentech has provided great benefits to both of our companies and shareholders. It has resulted in one of the biggest success stories in the healthcare industry."

Roche has been a partner with Genentech since 1990.

Roche said the takeover would improve operational efficiency by reducing complexity, eliminating duplications and increasing scale in the United States.

Humer said Roche's investment in Genentech over the years has helped it to focus on innovation and long-term projects, leading to some of the most important breakthroughs in the treatment of cancer and other life-threatening diseases.

"Combining the strengths of Roche and Genentech will create significant value and result in benefits for patients, employees and shareholders," he said.

Roche said Genentech's San Francisco site would operate as an independent research and early development center and become headquarters of combined U.S. commercial operations.

The statement said it expects the Genentech Board of Directors will establish a committee of independent directors to evaluate Roche's proposal with the assistance of independent outside financial and legal advisers.

Genentech board members who are employees of Roche will not participate in the evaluation of the proposal, it said.

The statement said Roche plans a cash merger between Genentech and a Roche subsidiary and that all currently outstanding shares and options of Genentech other than shares owned by Roche would be converted into cash.

Precise terms will be determined through negotiations with the independent directors, it said, adding that it expects the merger would be subject to the approval of holders of a majority of the Genentech outstanding shares not held by Roche.

"Roche expects to complete the transaction as soon as possible following negotiation of a definitive merger agreement," it said.

http://www.investorvillage.com/mbnews.asp?mb=4760&pt=qn&xid=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.158 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 08:57:31

..so dann hoffen wir mal, dass ELAN vor solchen Offerten verschont bleibt....

....wenn am 29.07.08 wirklich " atemberaubende " News kommen sollten, dann ......ja dann......mmmmhhh.....schauen wir mal....

...bei 89 USD würde ich vielleicht, aber auch nur vielleicht, mein OK geben...

...time will tell

[bernie55]

Here comes the ELN press.

Monday July 21, 06:47 AM

Elan moots flotation or sale of drug technology unit - report


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Elan (Dublin: DRX.IR - news) has hired investment bankers to carry out a strategic review of its development and manufacturing division, which could see the business floated or sold with a price tag of up to $1.5 billion, the Financial Times reported.

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH - news) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) are preparing Elan Drug Technology for a listing in London and Dublin, as well as a possible sale to private equity, the newspaper said without naming sources.

Irelands biggest drug company will send an information pack to prospective bidders in the next few days and ask interested parties to submit first-round bids by the middle of next month. Interested bidders are likely to include Apax, Blackstone (NYSE: BX - news) , Cinven, KKR and Warburg Pincus, the FT added.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254317&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.202 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 09:05:15

89$?????????????????????:O-och nöööööö--ich möchte 212$ im nächsten Jahr.....----Grüsse in die Runde;gehe nun mal arbeiten! Birgit

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.158 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 08:57:31

Roche offers $44B for remaining Genentech shares


Now the real questions are.....Will PFE buy WYE? Will PFE buy BIIB? You know this puts the heat on PFE!

PFE, Novartis, JNJ....Who will bid for WYE or BIIB?

I don't really think anyone in their right mind can seriously make a legitimate offer for Elan at this point. Any senior pharma exec will need to buy a company with "earnings" to make it "accretive" which is what the whole game is about....



By the time Elan makes it clear that Bap works, the price will be too high for big pharma to "roll the dice" without PIII data to justify spending $25B or more for Elan...don't see it happening anytime soon.

As I understand it though....the standstill between WYE and Elan "goes away after full PII are released....

That could make things rather interesting since all that would be left is for WYE to sell Ty to BIIB to help pay for a bid for Elan.....Still, don't think KM and crew would bite....They have a plan...a 5 year plan....you've heard it stated. Now it's time to start believing it!

I'll eat my hat if WYE doesn't go above $50 by Friday August 2...anyone for $54?

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254316&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.260 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 09:12:41

Tysabri trials for Multiple Myeloma have started. Link Posted
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00675428?term=Tysabri&…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00675428?term=Tysabri&…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.302 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 09:18:53

Was ist das Multiple Myelom / Plasmozytom?

Die Krankheit mit dem Namen Multiples Myelom, auch Kahler'sche Krankheit genannt, nach dem Wiener Arzt Otto Kahler, ist eine bösartige Wucherung von Plasmazellen im Knochenmark. In ganz seltenen Fällen finden wir auch bösartige Zellen ausserhalb des Knochenmarks. In diesem Falle sprechen wir von extra-medullärem Multiplem Myelom. Im Falle eines einzigen Herdes, wird die Bezeichnung Plasmozytom, eine Geschwulst von Plasmazellen, verwendet. In Deutschland werden Multiples Myelom und Plasmozytom leider oft ohne Unterscheidung verwendet, was bei Patienten manchmal zu Unsicherheiten führt.

Plasmazellen gehören zur Gruppe der weissen Blutzellen, auch Leukozyten genannt. In unserem Körper besorgen die verschiedenen Leukozyten zusammen die Abwehr gegen Infektionen. Innerhalb dieses Abwehrsystems sind die Plasmazellen verantwortlich für die Produktion von Abwehreiweissen, den Immunglobulinen. Im Falle einer Infektion wachsen verschiedene Plasmazellen heran, um Abwehreiweisse (Antikörper) zu produzieren und so die Abwehr zu verstärken.

Beim Multiplen Myelom überwuchert eine bösartige Art von Plasmazellen (daher der Ausdruck: monoklonal = von einem einzigen Stamm ausgehend). Aus diesem Grunde wird nur eine Art Abwehreiweiss in übergrossen Mengen produziert, welches zudem nicht richtig funktioniert. Weil dabei die gesunden Plasmazellen unterdrückt werden, werden aber auch die weiteren Abwehreiweisse in ungenügendem Masse produziert. Tritt das krankmachende Abwehreiweiss in grosser Menge auf, reden wir von einem Paraprotein, auch M-Protein genannt.

Seltener werden die Eiweissketten nicht vollständig hergestellt, sondern es bildet sich nur ein Fragment (so genanntes Bence Jones-Eiweiss): Leichtketten-Myelom. Noch seltener ist die Form, bei welcher die Plasmazelle zwar wuchert, aber kein Abwehreiweiss mehr produziert: nicht-sezernierendes Myelom.

Bei bösartigen Krankheiten sucht man meistens nach Metastasen. Beim Multiplen Myelom geht es dabei um Veränderungen im Knochenmark. Bei Diagnosestellung hat sich die Krankheit meist bereits im ganzen Skelett ausgebreitet. Das heisst, dass das MM in den unterschiedlichsten Knochen vorkommen kann. Man spricht deshalb häufig nicht von Metastasen, da das MM von Anfang an meist eine systemische Krankheit darstellt.

Diagnose
Um die Diagnose Multiples Myelom stellen zu können, müssen verschiedene Bedingungen erfüllt sein. Der Grund ist der, dass bei vielen älteren Menschen ein Paraprotein gefunden werden kann, ohne dass Plasmazellen wuchern: gutartige Paraproteinämie. Auch gibt es andere Krankheiten, bei denen die Anzahl an Plasmazellen im Knochenmark zum Zweck der natürlichen Abwehr erhöht sein kann.

Zur Diagnosestellung werden die Kriterien der Weltgesundheitsorganisation WHO angewendet.
Es werden folgende Werte einbezogen:
- die Höhe des Eiweissgehaltes
- Anzahl der Herde in den Knochen
- die Zahl der Plasmazellen im Knochenmark
- die Anwesenheit von Bence Jones-Eiweiss im Urin
- niedrige Mengen der normalen Abwehreiweisse.

Das Multiple Myelom wird bis anhin nach der Klassifikation von Salmon und Durie in drei Stadien eingeteilt (siehe Tabelle); abhängig von der Höhe des Paraproteingehalts, (nicht)vorhandener Blutarmut und/oder fehlender Blutplättchen, dem Gehalt an Kalzium im Blut und inwieweit Knochen geschädigt sind. Eine Unterteilung in A (gutfunktionierend) und B (schlechtfunktionierend) wird in Abhängigkeit der Nierenfunktion vorgenommen.

[bernie55]

Biogen Drug's Steady Return

By Keith J. Winstein
Word Count: 484 | Companies Featured in This Article: Biogen Idec, Elan, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Pfizer, Merck KGaA
Biogen Idec Inc. will mark two years this week the relaunch of Tysabri, a potent drug for multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease that is shaping up to be a blockbuster drug.

The drug was recalled in 2005, after three patients came down with a rare and serious brain infection, and two died. In July 2006, the Food and Drug Administration allowed Tysabri to return, under restrictive rules and a monitoring program.

Patients generally are warned that Tysabri carries a 1-in-1,000 risk of developing the often-deadly infection, and the drug is often used as a last resort for ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121660623237168999.html?mod=…



...vor 2 Jahren wurde TYSABRI in Monotherapie mit dem Touch-Programm wieder auf dem Markt gebracht..

..am > 23.07.08 < ist der 2 Jahrestag...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.302 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 09:18:53

in der 450 mg Dosierung anscheinend ja schon in Phase 2, oder verstehe ich das falsch?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.430 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 09:33:27

....würde ich auch so verstehen...??!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254323 7/21/2008 3:34:02 AM
By: Bellalunadk

Elan on Yahoo Finance frontpage. Sentiment Bullish

/ Dennis
Community Sentiment

Top stocks creating buzz on Yahoo! Finance message boards
Bullish

* Elan Corp. plc (ELN)
* Sovereign Bancorp Inc. (SOV)
* Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.548.430 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 09:33:27

..verstehe ich so auch...siehe Official Title:

...300mg Dosierung in PI und 450mg Dosis in PII...


Official Title:
A Phase 1/2, Two-Arm, Dose-Finding Study of Natalizumab for the Treatment of Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

[bernie55]

Study of Natalizumab in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma

This study is currently recruiting participants.

Verified by Biogen Idec, July 2008

Preclinical data support the evaluation of natalizumab in oncology as a single agent or in combination with standard anti-cancer therapies. Therefore, natalizumab is being developed for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.

Multiple Myeloma

Drug: Natalizumab 300 mg - Phase I
Drug:Natalizumab 450 mg - Phase II

Study Type: Interventional
Study Design: Treatment, Randomized, Open Label, Single Group Assignment, Safety/Efficacy Study

Official Title: A Phase 1/2, Two-Arm, Dose-Finding Study of Natalizumab for the Treatment of Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

Estimated Enrollment: 42
Study Start Date: May 2008
Estimated Study Completion Date: April 2012
Estimated Primary Completion Date: February 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00675428?term=Tysabri&…

[bernie55]

Goodbodys
Elan (Add, Closing Price $34.66); Further speculation surrounding EDT.

Analyst: Ian Hunter T [phone] E [e-mail]

It has been reported over the weekend that Elan has hired Lehman Brothers and Goldman

Sachs to prepare its Elan Drug Technology (EDT) division for a listing in London and Dublin, or

possible sale to private equity. It is believed that Elan will sound out prospective bidders within

a week or so, asking for first round bids by mid August. EDT is the drug delivery division of Elan,

which has a number of proprietary technologies that increase the availability of drugs in the

human body. A range of commercial drugs use EDT technologies including Abbot’s Tricor and

Novatis’s Focalin XR. EDT enjoys royalties from such drugs and also manufactures a number.

Even in the current economic climate there is an appetite for such deals with potential bidders

including Apax, Blackstone and Warburg Pincus. The idea that EDT would be floated or sold off

was first mooted a few months ago. Elan management noted that this was a possibility,

dependent on the progress of AAB-001. Headline data from its phase II trial indicate that for

AopE Neg Alzheimer’s patients, the drug could prove an advance on anything on the market to

date. The move to hive off EDT may signal Elan’s confidence in the drug’s potential.

Reports have consistently valued EDT at $1.5bn. We currently value the division in the $1.1bn to $1.4bn

range. It remains to be seen what value the company can actually achieve in the current markets.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254330&pt=…

[bernie55]

"I am going to defend Ty with my teeth"

Ty- talks look really good on the German boards !

A 55 yr. old male patient writes this on a German message board:



Hallo xxxx,

hier ist auch einer der schon die 2. Tysabri-Infusion hinter sich hat und mir geht es genauso wie Dir nämlich "Schweinegut" gg. Nach der ersten Infusion haben sich bei mir schon Verbesserungen gezeigt vor allem im Bereich Rumpfstabilität. Also ich geb das Medikament nicht mehr (Verteidige es mit den Zähnen wenn es sein muss -grins-). Hoffe das es bei Dir auch so schnell Erfolge zeigt.

Wünsch Dir noch ein schönes Wochenende


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254333&pt=…

[bernie55]

Tysabri May Hit
Blockbuster Status,

After 2005 Recall
By KEITH J. WINSTEIN
July 21, 2008; Page B7

Biogen Idec Inc. will mark two years this week the relaunch of Tysabri, a potent drug for multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease that is shaping up to be a blockbuster drug.

The drug was recalled in 2005, after three patients came down with a rare and serious brain infection, and two died. In July 2006, the Food and Drug Administration allowed Tysabri to return, under restrictive rules and a monitoring program.

Biogen still is dependent on revenue from Avonex, an older drug also for multiple sclerosis that accounted for $536 million in first-quarter sales.
Patients generally are warned that Tysabri carries a 1-in-1,000 risk of developing the often-deadly infection, and the drug is often used as a last resort for MS patients unsatisfied with other drugs.

In an interview, Biogen's chief executive, James Mullen, predicted Tysabri's sales would pass $1 billion a year on an annualized basis by the end of 2008 -- the conventional marker for blockbuster status.

"I think by most metrics, that goes in the category of pretty important drugs," Mr. Mullen said. Sales were $160 million in the first quarter, shared by Biogen and its marketing partner, Elan Corp. of Ireland. Biogen will announce its second-quarter results Tuesday .

The company still is dependent on revenue from Avonex, an older drug also for multiple sclerosis, and which accounted for $536 million in sales in the first quarter.

Biogen has offset slowing growth in Avonex with a series of price increases -- most recently on June 20. The drug now costs $22,928 a year on average, up 25% from a year ago, according to data from Medicare. Tysabri now costs $30,090 a year, up 2%, but Biogen splits profits on the drug with Elan.

"They've done a great job recognizing that the MS market is not terribly price-sensitive at this point," said Mark Schoenebaum, an analyst at Deutsche Bank who has a "hold" on Biogen's shares. "They've done a very, very, very good job with the relaunch."

Mr. Mullen said Biogen was planning a "head-to-head" trial of Tysabri to compare its efficacy against a competing MS drug. No such studies have yet been run, meaning nobody knows for sure whether Tysabri is better than competing drugs or by how much.

"That'll be the next step in the evolution of this product, is running some more directed head-to-head comparators," Mr. Mullen said. But he cautioned that "the precise trial design has not been agreed upon" between Biogen and Elan and was "probably a few months away."

Such a study would let doctors better weigh the benefits of different MS drugs -- competitors are made by Israel's Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and a partnership of Pfizer Inc. and Germany's Merck KGaA.

But it will entail risks. "That wouldn't be a terribly wise trial," Mr. Schoenebaum said. "The vast majority of physicians already believe Tysabri is vastly more efficacious. ... On the off chance they lose on a trial like that, they have a lot more to lose than gain."

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254336&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.550.633 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 13:37:02

ELN msg # 254339 7/21/2008 6:56:01 AM
By: aknb9

Re: WSJ article on Tysabri (Biogen's half)

"... a very, very, very good job with the relaunch."?????????
So good that most people still think Tysabri causes PML.

"the precise trial design has not been agreed upon" between Biogen and Elan and was "probably a few months away."
I guess it is hard to design a trial that would not hurt Avonex big time.

"That wouldn't be a terribly wise trial," Mr. Schoenebaum said. "The vast majority of physicians already believe Tysabri is vastly more efficacious. ... On the off chance they lose on a trial like that, they have a lot more to lose than gain."
Wouldn't be a wise trial for whom?
EVERYONE knows Tysabri would crush the crabs in such a trial.

[Poppholz]

USA vorbörslich:

$35,10 zu $35,21

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.550.764 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 13:52:13

$35,40 zu $36,12

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.020 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 14:17:48

...unverschämt...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.078 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 14:22:21

....unverschämt billig....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.087 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 14:22:58

!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254370 7/21/2008 8:43:21 AM
By: ipar4s2

A TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF ELANVILLE UNTIL 9:00 AM EST ON AUGUST 8, 2008.

Please take cover immediately.

Welcome aboard!!!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.411 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 14:53:04

Und, was will Ipars uns damit sagen ?

Sturm haben wir hier im Norden fast jeden Tag ... lol

[Poppholz]

die Kursdrücker sorgen wieder für einen Start unter $35,-

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.846 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 15:30:33

....läuft doch--25,28$!

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.012 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 15:42:27

ja - aber wohin (25,28$)?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.551.635 von Holgus am 21.07.08 15:13:36

Hurrrrrrrraaaaaaaaa Holgus ist wieder da

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.012 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 15:42:27

auf die $10,- kommt es auf Sicht von drei bis vier Jahren ja auch nicht drauf an.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.296 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 16:06:47

upppssss:O---grrrhhhh-brauche AAB 001-005!!!!!!!!!


naturellement::::::35,35$

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.187 von surga am 21.07.08 15:57:20

Hurrrrrrrraaaaaaaaa Holgus ist wieder da

..hattest du schon HOLGUS-Entzugserscheinungen, surga ???

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.075 von moneyseeker am 21.07.08 15:47:55

na-und wohin?????? 212 ist die Devise (oder war es 222....)

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.393 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:16:04

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.393 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:16:04

.......das bringt mich auf die Idee,dass er -um uns für die Entzugssymptome zu entschädigen- uns ein UNANZÜGLICHES Gedicht in diesem Bord schuldig ist.....

ALSO HOLGUS ,leg los.....

(...als ich einst im Umzugswahn
dachte an den Carl Icahn,
fiel mir doch das Bord glatt ein,
spürt,da muss ich doch SEIN!!!)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.472 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:23:24

.......das bringt mich auf die Idee,dass er -um uns für die Entzugssymptome zu entschädigen- uns ein UNANZÜGLICHES Gedicht in diesem Bord schuldig ist.....



...ich glaubs nicht.......Birgit wird " heiß " auf HOLGUS Gedichte...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.556 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:30:21

BERNIE!Bring Holgus nicht wieder auf seinen Tripp.....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.564 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:31:27

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...übrigens: Ich möchte heute die 36,morgen die 37,übermorgen die 38---und dann immer so weiter sehen....dann sind die 212 ca .im Februar erreicht----wär doch OK,oder??

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.655 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:40:20

.....wie immer, Biggie Baby ......einfach nur bescheiden....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.726 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:45:41

...ach Bernie--ich fühle mich so "erkannt"von Dir

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.472 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:23:24

Nö Leute, geht im Moment nich ... meine Kreativitätärät ist im Moment etwas eingeschränkt
(aber verlaßt Euch nich zu sehr drauf ... hihi)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.745 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:48:21

ach Bernie--ich fühle mich so "erkannt"von Dir

...bernie mit der vollen " Kennung "....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.655 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:40:20

Puuh ... wenn wir die 212 noch bis Anfang Januar erreichen, dann bin ich mit meinen Optionen 2-facher Millionär .... träum

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.751 von Holgus am 21.07.08 16:48:42

...oh je..er schwächelt....---aber unser Elanie nicht[/--35,60

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.795 von Holgus am 21.07.08 16:52:58

.....dann kannst du uns ja zum Fischessen in den hohen Norden einladen...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.810 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:54:10

..ich bringe dann das " golden Besteck " mit...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.795 von Holgus am 21.07.08 16:52:58

WAS KRIEGEN WIR[/b DANN DAVON AAAABBB ??

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.810 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:54:10

nur 1 Fischessen????

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.797 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:53:07

...oh je..er schwächelt....

....Schwäche zeigen bedeutet Stärke.....Holger hat was von uns ELANITES und ELANIACS gelernt....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.833 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:56:01

nur 1 Fischessen????

inkl. ***** Hotelübernachtung für einen Monat ....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.797 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:53:07

Schatzi (das is 'n Mischung aus SCHAF und ZIege), da schwächelt nix ... lediglich ein menstruales Formtief

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.843 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:57:01

...Du meinst,das Elan-Board ist eigentlich ein THERAPEUTISCHER PROZESS ????---und Holgie hat gerade eine traumatische Blockade gelöst?????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.860 von Holgus am 21.07.08 16:58:39

...berechnest Du das nach dem Mondkalender???????????

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.866 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 16:59:06

...sehr gut erkannt, Kollegin..

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.857 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 16:58:23

... nur 1 Fischessen????


Bernie, dann kauf ich Dir 'ne ganze Fischbude, da kannste Dich so richtig vollstopfen und hinterher riechst Du dann wie ein Mädel ...

prohooost

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.877 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:00:32

OK--wohin schickst Du Deine Rechnung ??An Hein-Jopp von der Waterkant,Postfach??

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.860 von Holgus am 21.07.08 16:58:39

lediglich ein menstruales Formtief


...also doch OLGA ????

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.886 von Holgus am 21.07.08 17:01:29

Bernie, dann kauf ich Dir 'ne ganze Fischbude, da kannste Dich so richtig vollstopfen und hinterher riechst Du dann wie ein Mädel ...




....ich kann nicht mehr...

...er läuft langsam wieder warm...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.913 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:03:54

....wo bleibt das BENEHMEN,Jungs????????????????????????????????????

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.913 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:03:54

Obwohl Fisch kannste mittlerweile vergessen, auch da greift die Umweltverschmutzung volles Rohr um sich.

Hab mir letzte Woche mal 'ne Dose Sardinen aufgemacht, und was war ?
Alles voller Öel ... igittigit

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.929 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:05:34

...darauf habe ich gewartet, Birgit

..auf die.


..tja, Holger, du schaffst es immer wieder...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.954 von Holgus am 21.07.08 17:07:10

Hab mir letzte Woche mal 'ne Dose Sardinen aufgemacht, und was war ?
Alles voller Öel ... igittigit



..damit kannst du jetzt aber bestimmt einen guten Preis an der Börse erzielen..

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.929 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:05:34

....wo bleibt das BENEHMEN,Jungs????

Wieso, was willst denn ?

Poppie riecht nach Carport und Bernie halt nach Mädelz

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.970 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:08:49

..damit kannst du jetzt aber bestimmt einen guten Preis an der Börse erzielen

Nee, wird nix. Hab in die Büchse hinterher noch'n Bohrturm gestellt, aber als ich durchs Blech durch war, hatte ich 'n Loch im Küchentisch ... Mist.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.552.956 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:07:27

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.008 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:11:50

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.008 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:11:50

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.034 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:14:19

geflüstert:35,76$!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.058 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:16:43

geflüstert:35,76$!

..geflüstert : nicht mehr weit von 36,82 USD vom 10.07.08..

[bernie55]

geflüstert:...bin nachher wieder da...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.128 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:22:22

....muss auch "noch" arbeiten--bis später!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.088 von bernie55 am 21.07.08 17:19:45

Tageshoch am 10.07. waren $37,45 gewesen.

Aber auch dieser Wert wird bald ein 90-Tage-Durchschnitt und anschließend ein 200-Tage-Durchschnitt sein.

(so für die Chart-Techniker)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.158 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.07.08 17:25:20

also ich muss die ganze Zeit arbeiten.

[Poppholz]

Ich weiß ja nicht, ob ich das die letzten Jahre immer falsch verstanden habe, aber ML waren doch diejenigen, die unser Baby immer auf SELL gesetzt haben da Tysabri "so schlecht" sein soll, oder?




Expecting Strong Upside from Biogen on Merrill Call
by: Notable Calls posted on: July 21, 2008

Merrill Lynch upgrades Biogen-Idec (BIIB) to Buy from Underperform based on their assessment of the company’s earnings growth potential, an improved outlook in the multiple sclerosis [MS] market, and a diversified mid to late-stage pipeline. Applying an average biotech P/E of 19x 2009E EPS (implied PEG of 1.0), they believe BIIB is significantly undervalued given expected growth, driven by acceleration of Tysabri usage in MS and the recent launch in Crohn’s.

Key near-term drivers include better-than-expected Q2 earnings and a Tysabri/PML update, which they believe is likely to be favorable. Additionally, with a 9% price increase for Avonex and 3% for Tysabri at the end of Q2, the firm expects the company to raise guidance for FY 2008. Merrill believes the Street has largely ignored BIIB’s fundamentals given the PML overhang and activist movements. These fundamentals continue to improve, making BIIB an attractive large-cap pick in H2 2008.

NDC sales data suggests that Tysabri sales are tracking above estimates, likely reflecting the recent Crohn’s disease launch (March) and increased clinician comfort with Tysabri usage in MS. Merrill expects Avonex sales at least in-line with expectations. Given the recent price increases for Avonex (9%) and Tysabri (3%), they anticipate continued revenue strength and upward guidance revision.

Biogen will provide a 2-year update for Tysabri either prior to the earnings call or on the call. Given the lack of negative press, the firm believes this update will be favorable, with a significant number of patients from the clinical trials exceeding 2- years of exposure. This is an important milestone, and a favorable report is likely to increase physician comfort with Tysabri usage.

Price target is upped to $79 from $64.

Notablecalls: In light on Genentech's (DNA) buyout offer from Roche, I think this BIIB upgrade will have legs. I expect to see at least a 5% upside move in BIIB today.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/85962-expecting-strong-upsid…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.259 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 17:37:13

Tageshoch am 10.07. waren $37,45 gewesen.


..meinte doch den Abschlusskurs vom 10.07.08

- 36,82 USD

[Bachalor]

zur beruhigung habe ich mir heute mal die neue

"Renter Bravo" geholt

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.553.496 von Poppholz am 21.07.08 18:01:50

man lernt halt dazu, spät aber immerhin.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...tja Jungs---ist ja nicht viel übriggeblieben von unserem Plus....dann also morgen

[bernie55]

Elan and Wyeth Announce Webcast To Discuss Bapineuzumab Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results

Tuesday July 22, 2:00 am ET


DUBLIN, Ireland & MADISON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN - News) and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News) today announced that the companies will hold a webcast at 6:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time (7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time) on Tuesday, July 29, 2008 with the investment community to discuss the results of the Phase 2 clinical trial of bapineuzumab for Alzheimer’s disease.

Company participants who will discuss the trial results and field questions will include:

Ron Black, MD, Wyeth Research, Asst. Vice President, Neuroscience.
Allison Hulme, PhD, Elan, EVP and Head of Global Development.
Dale Schenk, PhD, Elan, EVP and Chief Scientific Officer.

Live audio of the conference call will be simultaneously broadcast over the Internet and will be available to investors, members of the news media and the general public.

This event can be accessed by visiting the companies’ web sites at www.elan.com or www.wyeth.com and clicking on the “Investor Relations” icon. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call and slides will be available at the same URLs.


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080722/20080721006365.html?.v=1

[bernie55]

Biogen Idec and Elan Celebrate Second Anniversary of TYSABRI(R) for the Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis

Tuesday July 22, 2:00 am ET
TYSABRI's Benefits Continue to Drive Product's Growth with More Than 31,800 Patients Receiving Treatment

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. & DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB - News) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN - News) today announced the two-year anniversary of TYSABRI® (natalizumab) as a treatment for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS), marking the reintroduction of the product in the United States (US) and the first international approval. The companies estimate that as of the end of June 2008, more than 31,800 patients worldwide are receiving TYSABRI treatment.
Specifically, as of the end of June 2008:


In the US, more than 17,800 patients are on TYSABRI commercially and more than 3,100 physicians have prescribed the therapy;
Outside of the US, nearly 13,400 patients are on TYSABRI commercially;
In global clinical trials, more than 600 patients are on TYSABRI; and,
There have been no confirmed cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) since re-launch in the US and the first international approval in July 2006.
Cumulatively, in the combined clinical trial and post-marketing settings:


More than 43,300 patients have been treated with TYSABRI; and
Of those patients, nearly 13,900 have received at least one year of TYSABRI therapy and approximately 6,600 patients have been on therapy for 18 months or longer.
"Since beginning TYSABRI therapy more than 18 months ago, I have experienced an improvement in my life and how I go about living with my MS every day," said patient Patricia Substelny. "The benefits have been significant in terms of reducing the number of exacerbations I have experienced. I can now confidently work in my garden, cook for my family and friends, and enjoy what life has to offer. I feel very fortunate to have TYSABRI as an option to help me manage my MS."

In the two years since reintroduction in the US and the first international approval, the data continue to demonstrate the benefits of TYSABRI treatment for patients with relapsing forms of MS. Data showed that TYSABRI treatment significantly increases the proportion of patients with MS considered to be disease free, according to post-hoc analyses of Phase III clinical trials presented at this year’s American Academy of Neurology annual meeting. In addition, new data from a patient-reported outcomes survey was presented at the Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers annual meeting showing that after only three months of treatment with TYSABRI, some patients reported improvements in overall quality of life, disease level, functional status and MS symptoms.

Along with TYSABRI’s well-established clinical efficacy, growing health economic data from across the globe has been presented and published endorsing the pharmacoeconomic benefits of TYSABRI in MS patients. Based on this data, local health agencies in countries including Australia, Austria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Sweden, France and Germany have all recommended TYSABRI for reimbursement by government-run health agencies.

“During the past two years, my patients who are being treated with TYSABRI appear to experience very positive benefits from the drug," said Dr. Thomas F. Scott, Professor of Neurology, Drexel University College of Medicine and Director, Allegheny MS Treatment Center in Pittsburgh. "Many of my patients tell me TYSABRI is helping them to regain control of their lives.”


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080722/20080721006384.html?.v=1

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.556.838 von bernie55 am 22.07.08 08:22:40

.....end of June 2008, more than 31,800 patients worldwide are receiving TYSABRI treatment.

....no confirmed cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) since re-launch in the US and the first international approval in July 2006.


....More than 43,300 patients have been treated with TYSABRI; and Of those patients, nearly 13,900 have received at least one year of TYSABRI therapy and approximately 6,600 patients have been on therapy for 18 months or longer.

... Data showed that TYSABRI treatment significantly increases the proportion of patients with MS considered to be disease free,


.....einfach nur super...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Moin!

Himmel---seid Ihr schon fit heute morgen

Hört sich ja alles super an----muss später mal lesen....

[Poppholz]

die nächsten beiden Wochen werden sehr "ereignisreich" für ELAN werden.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.556.838 von bernie55 am 22.07.08 08:22:40

NCB Tysabri numbers
Elan and BiogenIdec have provided an update on the number of patients on Tysabri to mark the two year anniversary of Tysabri for MS (since its return to market in the US and introduction in Europe). The global Tysabri utilisation data as of the end of June
(Q2 2008) is ahead of our expectations with another strong uptick in RoW patient numbers over the quarter.

• The latest utilisation data shows that to the end of June, 31,200 patients were on Tysabri internationally with 17,800 of those patients treated in the US and 13,400 treated in RoW. In Q2 2008 the number of US physicians prescribing Tysabri increased
sequentially from 2,750 to 3,100. This is ahead of our forecasts for the quarter of 30,600 patients on Tysabri internationally, comprising 17,700 and 12,900 in the US and RoW respectively.

• These patient numbers equate to an estimated weekly run rate of 438 patients - 192 new patients treated per week in US and 246 new patients treated per week in RoW.
This compares to last quarter’s weekly run rate of 392 new patients - 184 new patients treated per week in the US and 208 new patients treated per week in RoW. The strong performance in the RoW market is benefiting from the approval of Tysabri for reimbursement by government health agencies in these countries.

• Overall, the patient numbers to the end of June indicates that Elan/BiogenIdec are on track to report global in market revenues of c.$196m (c.$3m ahead of our expectations). BiogenIdec report Q2 results later today (22 July), while Elan report Q2 results this Thursday (24 July).

Paraic Quinn [phone] [e-mail]

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=254743&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254744 7/22/2008 4:44:32 AM
By: Ballyvisteafarm

Reuters

DUBLIN, July 22 (Reuters) - Irish drugmaker Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Tuesday that more than 31,800 patients worldwide were receiving its multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tysabri at the end of June, exceeding the expectations of several analysts.

The Dublin-based group said in May it expected to make a profit in 2010 thanks to growing sales of the drug, with 100,000 patients on Tysabri therapy targeted by the end of 2010.

Elan and U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which co-developed Tysabri, said in a joint statement they had more than 17,800 patients on Tysabri commercially in the United States, 13,400 outside the U.S. and 600 in clinical trials.

"The numbers are impressive at 1.6 percent ahead of our expectations," Davy analyst Jack Gorman said.

Goodbody analyst Ian Hunter said the 31,200 commercial patients figure was above his forecast for 30,700.

Tysabri returned to the market with tougher MS prescription guidelines in 2006 after sales were suspended in 2005 over links to a rare and potentially fatal brain disease.

In May, Elan said 26,000 patients were using Tysabri, which was also launched in the United States in March as a treatment for Crohn's bowel disorder.

Biogen reports second quarter earnings on Tuesday, with Elan's due on Thursday.

Shares in Elan traded 2.3 percent lower by 0756 GMT, broadly in line with a 2.4 percent weaker Irish market .ISEQ.

(Reporting by Andras Gergely; editing by Rory Channing)

[Poppholz]

mal auf deutsch:


22.07.2008 10:28
Biogen Idec und Elan feiern zweiten Jahrestag von TYSABRI(R) zur Behandlung von Multipler Sklerose


Biogen Idec (News) (NASDAQ: BIIB) und Elan Corporation, (News) plc (NYSE: ELN) verkündeten heute den zweiten Jahrestag von TYSABRI® (Natalizumab) als Behandlungsmittel für wiederkehrende Formen von Multipler Sklerose (MS), an dem sie die Wiedereinführung des Produkts in den USA und seine erste internationale Zulassung feiern. Die Unternehmen schätzen, dass mit Stand von Ende Juni 2008 über 31.800 Patienten aus aller Welt mit TYSABRI behandelt werden.

Im Einzelnen stellten die Unternehmen Ende Juni 2008 fest:

In den USA erhalten über 17.800 TYSABRI kommerziell und über 3.100 Ärzte haben das Arzneimittel verschrieben.
Außerhalb der USA erhalten über 13.400 Patienten TYSABRI kommerziell.
In weltweiten klinischen Studien werden ca. 600 Patienten mit TYSABRI behandelt.
Seit der Wiedereinführung in den USA und der ersten internationalen Zulassung im Juli 2006 sind keine bestätigten Fälle von progressiver multifokaler Leukoenzephalopathie (PML) aufgetreten.
Insgesamt wurden in den klinischen Studien und den Behandlungssituationen nach der Vermarktung zusammen:

-über 43.300 mit TYSABRI behandelt und
-von diesen Patienten wurden beinahe 13.900 mindestens ein Jahr lang mit TYSABRI behandelt und ca. 6.600 Patienten unterzogen sich der Therapie seit 18 Monaten oder länger.

„Seitdem ich die TYSABRI-Therapie vor über 18 Monaten begonnen habe, hat sich mein Leben verbessert, wie auch die Art, mit der ich mit meiner MS im Alltag umgehe“, sagte Patientin Patricia Substelny. „Im Hinblick auf die Anzahl von Krankheitsschüben, die ich erlebt habe, hat sich eine bedeutende Verbesserung eingestellt. Ich kann nun zuversichtlich in meinem Garten arbeiten, für meine Familie kochen und genießen, was das Leben zu bieten hat. Ich bin sehr dankbar, dass mir TYSABRI als eine Behandlungsmöglichkeit für meine MS zur Verfügung steht.“

In den zwei Jahren seit der Wiedereinführung in den USA und der ersten internationalen Zulassung untermauern die gesammelten Daten weiterhin die Vorteile von TYSABRI in der Behandlung von Patienten mit wiederkehrenden Formen von MS. Die Daten einer nachträglich durchgeführten Analyse der klinischen Phase-III-Studien, die auf der diesjährigen Jahreskonferenz der American Academy of Neurology vorgelegt wurden, zeigen, dass die Behandlung mit TYSABRI den Anteil der als krankheitsfrei eingestuften MS-Patienten deutlich erhöht. Außerdem belegen neue Daten aus einer Umfrage über von Patienten selbst gemeldete Ergebnisse, die auf der Jahreskonferenz des Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers präsentiert wurden, dass einige Patienten nach bereits 3-monatiger TYSABRI-Behandlung von Verbesserungen ihrer allgemeinen Lebensqualität, ihres Krankheitsniveaus, ihres Funktionsstatus und ihrer MS-Symptome berichteten.

Zusammen mit TYSABRIs gut belegter klinischer Wirksamkeit wurde ein wachsender Bestand gesundheitswirtschaftlicher Daten aus aller Welt vorgelegt und veröffentlicht, der die pharmaökonomischen Vorteile der Behandlung von MS-Patienten mit TYSABRI verdeutlicht. Auf Grundlage dieser Daten haben die zuständigen Gesundheitsbehörden in Ländern wie Australien, Österreich, den Niederlanden, Großbritannien, Schweden, Frankreich und Deutschland alle TYSABRI zur Kostenerstattung durch staatliche Gesundheitsstellen empfohlen.

„Während der vergangenen zwei Jahre schienen meine mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten sehr positive Vorteile durch das Arzneimittel zu erhalten“, sagte Dr. Thomas F. Scott, Professor für Neurologie am Drexel University College of Medicine und Direktor des Allegheny MS Treatment Center in Pittsburgh. „Viele meiner Patienten sagen mir, dass TYSABRI ihnen hilft, Kontrolle über ihr Leben zurückzuerhalten.“

Über TOUCH™, TYGRIS und CD INFORM

Vor Beginn einer Behandlung müssen alle in den USA befindlichen Patienten, Verschreiber und Infusionsstellen im TOUCH-Verschreibungsprogramm (TYSABRI Outreach: Unified Commitment to Health) registriert sein. TOUCH ist darauf ausgelegt, das Vorhandensein von und die Risikofaktoren für schwerwiegende opportunistische Infektionen (OIs) wie PML zu entdecken, die Patienten auf Anzeichen und Symptome von PML zu überwachen und eine informierte Diskussionen über die Vorteile und Risiken vor Beginn einer TYSABRI-Behandlung zu fördern. Ärzte erstatten laufend Bericht, falls PML, andere schwerwiegende OIs oder Todesfälle eintreten oder die Therapie abgesetzt wird.

TYGRIS (TYSABRI Global ObseRvation Program In Safety, globales Beobachtungsprogramm zur Sicherheit von TYSABRI) und CD INFORM (Crohn's Disease - Investigating Natalizumab through Further Observational Research and Monitoring, Untersuchung von Natalizumab bei Morbus Crohn durch weitere Beobachtungsstudien) sind Bestandteile eines globalen Risikomanagementplans für TYSABRI. Es wird erwartet, dass TYGRIS weltweit 5000 Patienten erfassen wird, darunter ca. 2.000 - 2.500 Patienten von TOUCH. CD INFORM wird den Erwartungen zufolge 2.000 Morbus-Crohn-Patienten in den USA erfassen. Die durch TYGRIS und CD INFORM registrierten Patienten werden zu Therapiebeginn und dann halbjährlich über fünf Jahre hinweg untersucht. Die Forscher werden die Daten und Anamnese untersuchen und mit Bezug auf den Befund vor der TYSABRI-Behandlung, den Befund vor der Verwendung von Immunomodulatoren, Antineoplastika oder Immunosuppressiva und mit Bezug auf alle schwerwiegenden Nebenwirkungen einschl. PML, andere schwerwiegende OIs und Malignitäten auswerten.

Die Berichterstattung unerwünschter Ereignisse, die außerhalb klinischer Studien nach der Marktzulassung eintreten, erfolgt freiwillig. Es besteht die Möglichkeit, dass nicht alle Reaktionen berichtet wurden oder dass manche Reaktionen verspätet an Biogen Idec oder Elan gemeldet werden.

Über TYSABRI

TYSABRI ist ein Arzneimittel, das in den USA für rezidivierende Formen von MS und in der EU für rezidivierende-remittierende MS zugelassen ist. Nach Angaben, die im New England Journal of Medicine veröffentlicht wurden, führte die Therapie mit TYSABRI nach zwei Jahren zu einer 68-prozentigen relativen Verringerung (p<0,001) der auf ein Jahr umgerechneten Schubrate, verglichen mit einem Placebo, und das relative Risiko der Behinderungsprogression reduzierte sich um 42-54 Prozent (p<0,001).

TYSABRI wurde kürzlich zur Induzierung und Erhaltung eines klinischen Ansprechens und einer klinischen Remission bei erwachsenen Patienten mit mäßig bis schwer aktivem Morbus Crohn (MC) zugelassen, bei denen Anzeichen für eine Entzündung vorliegen und die auf herkömmliche MC-Therapien und TNF-alpha-Hemmer nicht genügend ansprachen bzw. diese nicht vertragen.

TYSABRI erhöht das Risiko von progressiver multifokaler Leukoenzephalopathie (PML), einer opportunistischen Virusinfektion des Gehirns, die meistens tödlich verläuft oder schwere Behinderungen verursacht. Zu anderen ernsthaften Nebenwirkungen, die bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten auftraten, gehören Überempfindlichkeitsreaktionen (z. B. Anaphylaxe) und Infektionen. Bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten wurden schwerwiegende opportunistische und andere atypische Infektionen beobachtet, wobei manche dieser Patienten gleichzeitig mit Immunsuppressiva behandelt wurden. Herpesinfektionen traten bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten etwas häufiger auf. In klinischen Studien über Multiple Sklerose und Morbus Crohn waren das Auftreten und die Quote anderer ernster unerwünschter Ereignisse einschließlich schwerwiegender Infektionen bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten und den Patienten, die ein Placebo erhielten, einander ähnlich. Zu häufigen unerwünschten Ereignissen, die bei mit TYSABRI behandelten MS-Patienten beobachtet wurden, gehören Kopfschmerzen, Müdigkeit, Infusionsreaktionen, Harntraktinfektionen, Gelenk- und Gliederschmerzen und Ausschlag. Andere häufige unerwünschte Ereignisse, die bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Morbus-Crohn-Patienten berichtet wurden, gehören Infektionen der Atemwege und Übelkeit. Es liegen Berichte über klinisch bedeutende Leberschäden bei Patienten vor, die nach der Marktzulassung außerhalb klinischer Studien mit TYSABRI behandelt wurden.

TYSABRI ist in mehr als 35 Ländern zugelassen.

Für weitere Informationen über TYSABRI besuchen Sie bitte www.tysabri.com, www.biogenidec.com oder www.elan.com oder wählen Sie 1-800-456-2255 .

Über Biogen Idec

Biogen Idec setzt neue Maßstäbe in therapeutischen Bereichen, in denen erhebliche medizinische Versorgungslücken bestehen. Biogen Idec wurde 1978 gegründet und zählt in der Entdeckung, Entwicklung, Herstellung und Kommerzialisierung innovativer Therapieansätze zu den weltweit führenden Unternehmen. Biogen Idecs bedeutende Produkte zur Behandlung von Krankheiten wie Lymphomen, multipler Sklerose und rheumatoider Arthritis kommen heute Patienten in mehr als 90 Ländern zugute. Produktinformationen, Pressemitteilungen und zusätzliche Informationen über das Unternehmen finden Sie unter www.biogenidec.com.

Über Elan

Die Elan Corporation, plc ist ein Biotechnologie-Unternehmen mit neurowissenschaftlicher Ausrichtung und strebt danach, das Leben der Patienten und ihrer Familien zu verbessern. Das Unternehmen setzt sich dafür ein, wissenschaftliche Innovationen für ernste, nicht gelöste medizinische Probleme nutzbar zu machen, die nach wie vor weltweit anzutreffen sind. Die Aktien von Elan werden an den Börsen in New York, London und Dublin gehandelt. Weitere Informationen über das Unternehmen erhalten Sie unterwww.elan.com.

Safe-Harbor-Erklärung über zukunftsbezogene Aussagen

Diese Pressemitteilung enthält zukunftsbezogene Aussagen über TYSABRI. Diese Aussagen beruhen auf den derzeitigen Annahmen und Erwartungen der Unternehmen. Das kommerzielle Potenzial von TYSABRI unterliegt einer Anzahl von Risiken und Ungewissheiten. Zu den Faktoren, aufgrund derer die tatsächlichen Ergebnisse maßgeblich von den derzeitigen Erwartungen der Unternehmen abweichen könnten gehören das Risiko, dass wir nicht in der Lage sein könnten, angemessen auf von der US-amerikanischen Arzneimittelbehörde FDA oder anderen aufsichtsrechtlichen Stellen geäußerte Bedenken oder Anfragen zu reagieren, dass zusätzliche Daten neue Bedenken aufwerfen, dass das Auftreten und/oder das Risiko von PML oder anderen opportunistischen Infektionen bei mit TYSABRI behandelten Patienten höher als in klinischen Studien beobachtet ausfallen könnte, dass die Unternehmen auf andere unerwartete Hindernisse stoßen oder dass neue Therapien zur Behandlung von MS mit besseren Wirksamkeits- oder Sicherheitsprofilen oder einfacheren Verabreichungsmethoden auf den Markt kommen. Die Entwicklung und Kommerzialisierung von Arzneimitteln unterliegt einem hohen Risikograd.

Nähere Informationen über Risiken und Unwägbarkeiten, die mit den Aktivitäten der Unternehmen in der Arzneimittelentwicklung und anderen Bereichen verbunden sind, finden Sie in den periodisch verfassten und aktuellen Berichten, die Biogen Idec und Elan bei der US-amerikanischen Börsenaufsicht SEC eingereicht haben. Die Unternehmen verpflichten sich in keiner Weise zur öffentlichen Aktualisierung zukunftsbezogener Aussagen aufgrund von neuen Informationen, zukünftigen Ereignissen oder sonstigen Umständen.

Die Ausgangssprache, in der der Originaltext veröffentlicht wird, ist die offizielle und autorisierte Version. Übersetzungen werden zur besseren Verständigung mitgeliefert. Nur die Sprachversion, die im Original veröffentlicht wurde, ist rechtsgültig. Gleichen Sie deshalb Übersetzungen mit der originalen Sprachversion der Veröffentlichung ab.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2008-07/artikel-…

[Poppholz]

Biogen Idec earns 70 cents a share in quarter

By John Ittner
Last update: 7:35 a.m. EDT July 22, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Biogen Idec Inc. said Tuesday that second-quarter earnings were $207 million, or 70 cents a share, compared to $186 million, or 54 cents, in the year-ago period. Second-quarter revenues were $993 million, an increase of 28% from $773 million in the second quarter of 2007. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 91 cents a share, compared to 70 cents a year ago. For the full year Biogen Idec sees earnings per share of at least $2.51 and on an adjusted basis of at least $3.50. The average estimate for second-quarter adjusted earnings per share by analysts polled by FactSet was 84 cents.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/biogen-idec-earns-70-c…

[Poppholz]

22.07.2008 13:40
Biogen Idec kann Ergebnis steigern
Cambridge (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der US-Biotechnologiekonzern Biogen Idec Inc. (ISIN US09062X1037 (News)/ WKN 789617) legte am Dienstag die Zahlen für das zweite Quartal vor.

Demnach verbesserten sich die Umsatzerlöse von 773 Mio. Dollar auf 993 Mio. Dollar, was einem Plus von 28 Prozent entspricht. Dabei konnte der Konzern insbesondere von deutlichen Umsatzzuwächsen beim Multiple-Sklerose Präparat Avonex profitieren.

Der Nettogewinn lag bei 206,6 Mio. Dollar bzw. 70 Cents je Aktie, nach einem Nettogewinn von 186,1 Mio. Dollar bzw. 54 Cents je Aktie im Vorjahreszeitraum. Der bereinigte Nettogewinn lag bei 91 Cents je Aktie. Analysten hatten zuvor ein EPS von 85 Cents sowie einen Umsatz von 962,6 Mio. Dollar erwartet.

Für das laufende Quartal liegen die Analystenschätzungen bei einem EPS von 85 Cents sowie einem Umsatz von 985,5 Mio. Dollar.

Die Aktie von Biogen Idec notierte zuletzt bei 66,85 Dollar. (22.07.2008/ac/n/a)

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2008-07/artikel-…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254818 7/22/2008 8:41:07 AM
By: stockhound4

9 Out Of 10 US Neurologists Acknowledge That Tysabri Is The Most Efficacious Drug Available For MS Biogen CC

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.559.945 von Poppholz am 22.07.08 13:49:04

nee-----nicht wegen AVONEX!!!

ELN msg # 254791 7/22/2008 7:52:49 AM
By: JBWIN

JPM on BIIB - Upside 2Q Results and Record Tysabri Patient Numbers

BIIB reported 2Q non-GAAP EPS (excl FAS123R) of $0.91, beating our estimate of $0.85 (cons: $0.85). Total revenues were $993M, well ahead of our and consensus estimates $956M of $963M. The highlights of the quarter are 1) FY08 revenue guidance was increased from 20% y/y growth to the mid-20% range for y/y growth and EPS guidance from $3.25 to $3.45 to $3.50 or higher, well ahead of the consensus est of $3.39 (JPMe: $3.44); 2) Tysabri sales of $200M were significantly above expectations, beating our above-consensus estimate of $190M (cons: $182M); 3) there are STILL no confirmed cases of PML in Tysabri patients; and 4) the long-term Tysabri outlook continues to improve, with record patient adds in 2Q and over 31,000 patients on commercial drug. We expect a favorable reaction for BIIB shares today on the news and reiterate our Overweight rating.

No PML; Third straight quarter of upside patient additions. Biogen Idec has announced an above-expectations safety and utilization update. There are now 31,200 patients on commercial Tysabri worldwide, and there still have been no confirmed cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), including assessment of the recent suspected case listed on the AERS database. The 2Q patient adds were 438/week, up from the record 392/week in 1Q08. Tysabri sales well above expectations. Tysabri WW end-user sales of $200M represented an impressive 25% q/q growth, were well above our estimate of $190M, and comfortably beat the consensus $182M.

Avonex in line. Avonex sales of $527M beat our estimate of $521M, and were just below the consensus of $532M on strong sales in both the US ($306M) and outside the US ($221M).

Guidance raised. Biogen raised 2008 revenue guidance to the mid-20% y/y growth range, from 20% previously, implying 2008 revenue approaching $4B (well ahead of our and consensus estimates of $3.85B and $3.91B). Biogen also raised non-GAAP EPS guidance to between be $3.50 or higher, from the range of $3.25 and $3.45 previously (JPMe: $3.44; cons: $3.39). In our view, the upward guidance revisions are another positive surprise and still appear to have upside potential.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254843 7/22/2008 9:03:44 AM
By: ipar4s2

Rueter's: "Elan's Tysabri patient number impresses analysts"

Elan's Tysabri patient number impresses analysts

Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:14am EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]
MARKET NEWS


DUBLIN, July 22 (Reuters) - Irish drugmaker Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Tuesday that more than 31,800 patients worldwide were receiving its multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tysabri at the end of June, exceeding the expectations of several analysts.

The Dublin-based group said in May it expected to make a profit in 2010 thanks to growing sales of the drug, with 100,000 patients on Tysabri therapy targeted by the end of 2010.

Elan and U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which co-developed Tysabri, said in a joint statement they had more than 17,800 patients on Tysabri commercially in the United States, 13,400 outside the U.S. and 600 in clinical trials.

"The numbers are impressive at 1.6 percent ahead of our expectations," Davy analyst Jack Gorman said.

Goodbody analyst Ian Hunter said the 31,200 commercial patients figure was above his forecast for 30,700.

Tysabri returned to the market with tougher MS prescription guidelines in 2006 after sales were suspended in 2005 over links to a rare and potentially fatal brain disease.

In May, Elan said 26,000 patients were using Tysabri, which was also launched in the United States in March as a treatment for Crohn's bowel disorder.

Biogen reports second quarter earnings on Tuesday, with Elan's due on Thursday.

Shares in Elan traded 2.3 percent lower by 0756 GMT, broadly in line with a 2.4 percent weaker Irish market .ISEQ.

(Reporting by Andras Gergely; editing by Rory Channing)

[Poppholz]

dies ist irgendwie bisher an mir vorbei gelaufen:


22.07.2008 11:11
Angemeldete Fusionen: Wyeth/Procter & Gamble
Angemeldete Fusionen: Wyeth/Procter (News/Aktienkurs)&Gamble

Datum der Anmeldung:
16.07.2008

Aktenzeichen:
B3-133/08

Unternehmen:
Wyeth/Procter&Gamble

Produktmärkte:
ThermaCare, Wärmeumschläge

Bundesländer/Unternehmenssitz:
-


Quelle: Bundeskartellamt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...muss ich verstehen,dass wir im Minus handeln???

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.561.060 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.07.08 15:48:29

mensch Birgit, Du bist doch schon lange genug dabei, um zu wissen, dass wenn wir gute News bei unserem Baby haben, der Kurs nach unten geht.

[Poppholz]

wenn das so weiter geht werde ich wohl einige "Stützungsverkäufe" durchführen.

[Poppholz]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.561.390 von Poppholz am 22.07.08 16:18:22

Stimmt--ich falle immer wieder in die Denke zurück,die Kursbewegungen mit dem Instrument der Logik begreifen zu wollen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 254927 7/22/2008 10:30:06 AM
By: Metaldragon

So here's the deal.

When you are looking for a good buying opportunity just wait for the next batch of good news. Should be a lot of them with all of the good news we're expecting in our near future;-)

Who said life is fair?

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.561.515 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.07.08 16:30:29

ich will ja nicht noch Salz in die Wunde streuen, aber der Vergleich von BIIB und ELN ist noch krasser.

BIIB ist ca. 5% im Plus.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.561.672 von Poppholz am 22.07.08 16:44:08

...ist doch klar-Ihre Hälfte Ty wirkt einfach besser....

[Poppholz]

Biogen Idec verdient im zweiten Quartal mehr als von Experten erwartet
22.07 16:18

NEW YORK (AWP International) - Angetrieben von einer starken Nachfrage nach Multiple-Sklerose-Mitteln (MS) hat das US-Biotechunternehmen Biogen Idec im zweiten Quartal mehr verdient als von Experten erwartet. Der bereinigte Gewinn habe bei 268,5 Millionen US-Dollar oder 0,91 Dollar je Aktie gelegen, teilte das Unternehmen am Dienstag in New York mit. Analysten hatten mit 0,85 Dollar Gewinn je Aktie gerechnet.

Der Umsatz stieg um 28 Prozent auf 993,4 Millionen Dollar, die Experten hatten 962,6 Millionen Dollar erwartet. Umsatztreiber waren vor allem die beiden MS-Mittel Tysabri und Avonex. Für 2008 erwartet das Unternehemn einen Gewinn je Aktie in Höhe von 3,50 Dollar, Analysten waren bisher von 3,40 Dollar ausgegangen. Die Aktien von Biogen Idec stiegen am Dienstag im frühen US-Handel um 5,31 Prozent auf 70,40 Dollar./FX/sc/he

(Quelle: AWP)

http://www.cash.ch/news/story/448/570636/40/40

[Bachalor]

wenn jemand den kurssturz!! nicht verkraftet

es gibt die neue rentner bravo zu lesen

[surga]

Strong MS-drug sales buoy Biogen's earnings

By Val Brickates Kennedy, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:03 p.m. EDT July 22, 2008

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Biogen Idec reported that second-quarter earnings rose 11%, boosted largely by strong overseas sales of its Avonex and Tysabri multiple-sclerosis drugs.
Shares of Biogen recently were up 6.3% at $71.03.

The Cambridge, Mass., biotech group posted net income of $207 million, or 70 cents a share, compared with $186 million, or 54 cents, in the year-earlier period.
Biogen bought back nearly 5 million shares in the quarter as part of a 20-million-share buyback. Weighted-average shares outstanding used to calculate earnings fell 15% to 293.5 million.
Excluding special items, Biogen earned 91 cents a share versus 70 cents.
Revenue for the quarter shot up 28% to $993 million from $773 million a year earlier. According to Biogen, about a third of the sales were from overseas.
A survey of analysts polled by FactSet produced a consensus estimate of 84 cents of profit.
For 2008, Biogen now sees earnings per share of at least $2.51, or at least $3.50 on an adjusted basis. According to FactSet, analysts had been looking for an adjusted $3.43.
Sales of the company's flagship product, the multiple-sclerosis drug Avonex, climbed 14% to $527 million. According to Chief Financial Officer Paul Clancy, a favorable foreign-exchange rate contributed about 9%.
The company's oncology drug, Rituxan, took in sales of $279 million, up 21%. Rituxan is co-marketed with Genentech Inc. Genentech and Biogen received proceeds from U.S. sales of Rituxan, with foreign sales going to Genentech's partner Roche.
The company's controversial multiple-sclerosis drug, Tysabri, saw sales more than triple to $147 million. The product, co-marketed with Irish drugmaker Elan Corp., has been regarded as a key future growth driver for the company. Total sales, including Elan's take, amounted to $200 million.
Tysabri was taken off the market soon after it was launched in 2005 after a handful of users developed a rare but deadly brain infection called PML. The product was returned to the market in 2006, with tight prescribing restrictions, after it was determined that the PML cases stemmed from a drug interaction.
Because of its history, Wall Street has been skeptical as to whether Tysabri will ever achieve blockbuster status. But Biogen has maintained that the product will have about 100,000 users by the end of 2010.
Clancy said that at the current run rate, Tysabri is on track to easily hit 90,000 users by 2010.
Biogen said Tuesday that no incidences of PML have been reported since the product was put back on the market in July 2006.
Biogen also reported Tuesday that more than 31,800 people were using Tysabri worldwide. Of those, more than 17,800 were in the U.S., while 13,400 were overseas. Another 600 are enrolled in clinical trials.
Biogen made headlines earlier this year when activist investor Carl Icahn entered the stock, pushing the company at one point to put itself up for sale. Icahn has made no comment about Biogen since losing a proxy battle last month at the annual meeting.
Clancy said that as far as the company knows, Icahn still probably has about a 4.2% stake in Biogen. He said Icahn has until mid-August to file a report with regulators listing his second-quarter investment activity.
Val Brickates Kennedy is a reporter for MarketWatch in Boston.

[surga]

Elan Corporation, plc / Wyeth Conference Call
Scheduled to start Tue, Jul 29, 2008, 7:00 pm Eastern

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/9/95399.html

[bernie55]

http://www.tysabri.com/tysbProject/tysb.portal

[bernie55]

ncb

BUY > BiogenIdec Reports Tysabri Global In Market Sales; Reaffirms Target For 2010

• BiogenIdec yesterday reported Q2 results in which it increased its guidance for 2008 on the basis of the strong performance of Tysabri and favourable FX. BiogenIdec reported global Q2 Tysabri in market sales of $200m (compared to our $193.5m forecast) based on the patient numbers released yesterday morning (31,200 patients on treatment at the end of June). US in market sales were $99m while RoW in market sales were $101m.

• During its conference call, the company reaffirmed the target of 100,000 patients on Tysabri by year end 2010. On Tysabri for Crohn's Disease, BiogenIdec disclosed that over 100 patients were on therapy at the end of Q2 and that Elan will provide further details on progress in the Crohn's market when it reports tomorrow (24 July). The company also disclosed that a study to evaluate the efficacy of Tysabri is being planned, although no further details or timelines were provided.

• Elan report Q2 results tomorrow (24 July) where the focus will be on the roll-out of Tysabri in the US for Crohn's Disease and the long term Tysabri patient targets.
Wyeth (Elan's partner for AAB-001) release Q2 results later today. While we do not expect any significant new details on the AAB-001 Phase II trials in advance of the ICAD conference on 29 July, the release may provide an update on the ongoing Phase III
studies.

Paraic Quinn [phone] [e-mail]

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=255409&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.567.693 von bernie55 am 23.07.08 11:22:26

....und natürlich sind wir auch auf die Geschäftszahlen der EDT in 2008 gespannt.......

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.556.832 von bernie55 am 22.07.08 08:21:22

Elan and Wyeth Announce Webcast To Discuss Bapineuzumab Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results

DUBLIN, Ireland & MADISON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN - News) and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News) today announced that the companies will hold a webcast at 6:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time (7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time) on Tuesday, July 29, 2008 with the investment community to discuss the results of the Phase 2 clinical trial of bapineuzumab for Alzheimer’s disease.

Company participants who will discuss the trial results and field questions will include:

Ron Black, MD, Wyeth Research, Asst. Vice President, Neuroscience.
Allison Hulme, PhD, Elan, EVP and Head of Global Development.
Dale Schenk, PhD, Elan, EVP and Chief Scientific Officer.

Live audio of the conference call will be simultaneously broadcast over the Internet and will be available to investors, members of the news media and the general public.

This event can be accessed by visiting the companies’ web sites at www.elan.com or www.wyeth.com and clicking on the “Investor Relations” icon. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call and slides will be available at the same URLs.





Nun die Frage ..... warum eine CC ???

..hier die Antwort...
..sowohl für ELANITES als auch ELANIACS...natürlich insbesondere für PCBBS..



Why do they need a CC?
My guess is that the results are even better than most think. When you have what could be the most important drug of all time there will be questions. The company will attempt to tell the world in ordinary terms what to expect from BAP. There are some unique aspects to this trial. The results at the meeting won't include the drop outs. At this CC they can tell the world that the carrier group would have been stat sig if the VE patients were included. That the VE patients had an issue that resolved safely and were placed on the drug again. The VE patients were some of the best performers. VEs are not a safety issue. It is a signal that the drug is working. They can possibly talk about the path forward. The scientific conference is not the place for that discussion.

The CC should be viewed as a very positive development. If the data were not good the likelihood of a CC would be less. If this drug works, and it does, it could be the biggest event in medicine in the last 50 years. When this data is released and shows that patients have hope the whole game changes. At that point the FDA will be under extreme pressure. Imagine the number of patients that will call ELN, WYE, and the FDA begging to get their loved ones the drug. They won't want the placebo either. It the results are clear does it now become an ethical issue to allow patients in the trial to take a placebo when you know the drug will work. I would not be shocked if the P3 went open label at some point. Maybe after 6 months of data.

I know one thing I might not sleep well for the next week. It is not because I am nervous.

It is because I am excited. I can't wait for the day the dream is realized.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=255412&pt=…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.568.092 von bernie55 am 23.07.08 11:57:59

na dann, wollen wir das Beste hoffen

[bernie55]

WYE NEWS
Wyeth Reports Earnings Results for the 2008 Second Quarter and First Half and Raises Earnings Guidance

Wednesday July 23, 7:00 am ET
- 2008 Second Quarter Worldwide Net Revenue Increased 5% to $5.9 Billion and Reported Diluted Earnings per Share Decreased 5% to $0.83. Diluted Earnings per Share, before Certain Significant Items, Increased 1% to $0.91

- 2008 First Half Worldwide Net Revenue Increased 6% to $11.7 Billion and Reported Diluted Earnings per Share Decreased 4% to $1.72. Diluted Earnings per Share, before Certain Significant Items, Increased 1% to $1.85

- Relistor for Opioid-Induced Constipation Received FDA and European Commission Approval

- Encouraging Phase 2 Results Announced for Bapineuzumab in Patients with Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease; Results to Be Presented at ICAD on July 29, 2008

- 2008 Full Year Pro Forma Diluted Earnings per Share Guidance Raised to a Range of $3.47 to $3.55


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=255424&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.568.772 von bernie55 am 23.07.08 13:10:36

In addition, we are optimistic about the future -
- having secured five product approvals in the past 14 months, and we are encouraged by the Phase 2 results for bapineuzumab in Alzheimer's disease that support our decision to initiate Phase 3 trials."

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Hi

Gruss in die Runde---2 grosse Kids zuhause,28 Youngster im Tagungshaus und jede Menge Klienten....bin gerade-in dieser für Elan so wichtigen Zeit- im Stress--aber Ihr seid doppelt aktiv...SUPER--- Bis später....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.568.948 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 23.07.08 13:27:00

-in dieser für Elan so wichtigen Zeit-

...ELAN`s wichtigste Zeit ist in der nächsten Woche...

.....kannst bis dahin....rumkidden....und anschließend einen kleinen sommerlichen Winterschlaf machen....natürlich nur bis zum 29.07.08.......

[bernie55]

Schlusskurs USA : 33,99 USD


vorbörslich:

34,86 - 35,08

[Bachalor]

[Poppholz]

hier ein Link zum Q2 Earnings Call Transcript von Biogen:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/86346-biogen-idec-inc-q2-200…

sind zu viele Seiten um diese hier rein zu kopieren.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.570.343 von Poppholz am 23.07.08 15:58:33

sind zu viele Seiten um diese hier rein zu kopieren.



...du faule Socke...

. Grüße bernie55, die " fleißige" Socke

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.570.343 von Poppholz am 23.07.08 15:58:33

....hier etwas zu TYSABRI...

We saw an acceleration of TYSABRI patient adds as physicians grow more comfortable with the safety profile.

As we described last September, the ex-U.S. business will continue... will grow faster than the U.S. and we expect international to contribute about 60% towards the TYSABRI 100,000 patient goal. More than half of the 5700 new patients in Q2 were in international markets.

TYSABRI was launched in Crohn's indication at the end of the first quarter 2008. Q2 activities focused on educating healthcare professionals about the operation of the CD TOUCH Prescribing Program. A little over 100 Crohn's patients were on therapy at the end of the second quarter. Elan will provide more color on our upcoming call later this week.

We are making great strides towards our goal of 100,000 patients by year-end 2010. We expect TYSABRI to exit 2008 at over a $1 billion dollar run rate of in market revenues. In this month, we celebrate TYSABRI's two year anniversary since the relaunch and we feel this is a very, very important milestone.

At the end of June, there were 31,800 patients being treated with TYSABRI around the world. Nearly 140,000 have received TYSABRI for 12 months and about 6600 patients have been on therapy for 18 months or longer. Bill Sibold, the Senior Vice President, U.S. Neurology, will take you through an update of the MS franchise in a few minutes.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/86346-biogen-idec-inc-q2-200…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

From Credit Suisse today

Elan Corp (ELN.I) Outperform Industry Weighting: Market Weight S. Bardo

CP: Eu 21.65 TP: Eu 20 CAP: US$ 16.1b

Comments post strong uptake of Tysabri

• Elan and Biogen Idec this morning announced strong uptake of Tysabri - 2 years after the product was re-launched.

• By the end of Q2'08, 31,200 people were on commercial therapy - 2 % better than our higher than consensus expectations of

30,600. The main source of the beat came from ROW geographies with 13,400 patients on commercial therapy - 4% higher

than our expectations of 12,900.

• Importantly, 6,600 patients have been on Tysabri monotherapy for 18 months or longer and there have been no confirmed

cases of safety risk PML - Thus the true on-market incidence of PML to date appears less than 1:1000 - which tests the

conclusions of the often cited Yousry NEJM article which analysed risk after a mean exposure of 18 months.

• With neurologist confidence in using Tysabri continuing to evolve we believe sellside consensus expectations continue to

underestimate Tysabri's potential - especially for the ROW geographies. Today's update is a further validation that the

100,000 patients target by 2010 is do-able, in our view.

• Whilst at Thursday's Q2 results we expect that Elan will address recent press speculation of their imminent intentions to

sell/spin off the EDT business - the most important near term catalyst is the ICAD conference starting over the weekend.

• We believe that the full phase II AAB-001 data presented at ICAD will likely strongly support the headline data reports, and

will likely provide good affirmation as too why Elan progressed early in Phase III trials in both APOe4 non-carrier and carrier

cohorts. We look to fully appraise the detailed data set before raising our risk adjustment on AAB-001 - currently 50%.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Bin sauer!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.573.412 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 23.07.08 21:46:06

Bin sauer!

Werd süß..

[bernie55]

...not worth mentioning, Birgit....

...ich denke, da haben wir doch schon ganz andere Dinge erlebt...

[bernie55]

..morgen die Zahlen...dann vielleicht noch mal ein bisschen runter.....vielleicht auch nicht...

..... um dann am 29.07.08 so richtig durchzustarten....

TIME WILL TELL

[bernie55]

Don´t worry shake happy...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.573.529 von bernie55 am 23.07.08 22:04:12

nee-erst über 36....Ich möchte WIRKLICH mal deren Computerprogramme kennen ..... lieber noch :O"sprengen"...:O

Gute Nacht!

[bernie55]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.573.675 von bernie55 am 23.07.08 22:20:21

sleep well!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 255790 7/23/2008 4:12:35 PM
By: oldpfizerdog

The last few weeks...

Mygn tosses their alz. drug. They go up Elan now the top dog goes down.
Abraxis looses patent case to Elan. Abraxis back up Elan down.
Biogen up 14 bucks on the future of Tysabri. Elan down.
Wyeth says BAP could be a game changer. Wyeth up,Elan down.
WS is soooo filthy. Our day is coming.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.573.749 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 23.07.08 22:30:47

..wir müssen davon ausgehen, Birgit, dass die Zahlen nicht so gut werden....

....bis eine gewissen " Profitabilität " erreicht ist, ist noch ein weiter Weg zu gehen......deswegen sind auch morgen die Zahlen zur EDT mal wieder interessant...

BIOGEN und WYETH sind ELAN da schon ein bisschen voraus, was " Geldbeschaffung " betrifft.....

...Fakt ist, dass ELAN wirklich von der Vision " BAPPY " lebt....es gibt auch viele Skeptiker, die hinsichtlich des Zugpferdes > BAPPY ( neben dem " kleinen " Pferd > TY )nicht " risikoreich " investieren wollen.....

..der 29.07.08 wird deshalb für ELAN ein wichtiger Termin !!!

.. noch einmal gute NAcht...

Grüße
bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 255869 7/23/2008 5:43:11 PM
By: liposghost

plaque v beta amyloid

there is not now nor likely ever will be a proven relationship between removal of plaque and change in cognitive function.
Think of it like this, elephant shit is a good indication the circus has passed through town. Picking it up ain't making the circus come back.
But at this time it is believed that the soluable forms of abeta are the bad guys doingthe damage, and aab 001 breaks down all forms of abeta and allows the body to piss it away so to speak and only allow normal levels in csf and in the vascular system.
Plaque is just the end form when the soluable have no place to go.
Dr Nicoll looked only at 8 dead people not the living ones from the AN1792 PII, which likely tell a more complete story. I believe his conclusions are acurate with the data used but he chose not to use all available.
I have heard some elan folk call him less than flattering names.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.574.154 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 00:06:06

Guten Morgen


But at this time it is believed that the soluable forms of abeta are the bad guys doing the damage, and aab 001 breaks down all forms of abeta and allows the body to piss it away so to speak and only allow normal levels in csf and in the vascular system. Plaque is just the end form when the soluable have no place to go.


....dann glauben wir mal weiter....

[bernie55]

Press Release Source: Elan Corporation, plc

...auf die Schnelle....muss jetzt arbeiten.....wir lesen uns...


Elan Reports Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Thursday July 24, 2:00 am ET

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Elan Corporation, plc today announced its second quarter 2008 financial results and provided a business update. Commenting on Elan’s business, Kelly Martin, Elan’s president and chief executive officer, said, “Disciplined execution and tangible results for the benefit of patients and shareholders continue to be our enduring tenet. We are encouraged by the recently reported top-line results from our Phase 2 trial of bapineuzumab which provides further validation of our approach. We look forward to sharing the full clinical data later this month. In addition, we are pleased to celebrate the second anniversary of Tysabri in MS and the launch of Tysabri for Crohn’s patients. We will continue to demonstrate focused and disciplined leadership that will provide continuous progress that ultimately leads to benefits for our shareholders, patients, and their caregivers.”



Commenting on Elan’s second quarter financial results, Shane Cooke, Elan’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said, “We are very pleased with the results for the second quarter of 2008, which reflect the excellent progress we are making across all our businesses and development programs. Revenues grew by 30%, driven by another strong performance from Tysabri and we are confident that, for the full year, Elan’s revenues will approach the $1 billion mark. Growth in Tysabri, which recently celebrated its second anniversary, continues to accelerate and with about 31,800 patients on therapy globally we are confident it will reach blockbuster status on a run rate basis in the coming months and our target of 100,000 patients on therapy by the end of 2010. The loss for the second quarter of 2008 decreased by 49% as a result of the 30% increase in revenues, strong cost management and the inclusion of charges in the second quarter of 2007 related to the impact of generic competition on Maxipime.”

Mr. Cooke added, “The continued acceleration in the growth of Tysabri, coupled with reduced SG&A expenses, more than offsets our increased investment in R&D, as a result of the continued progress in our key development programs, and the loss of sales of Maxipime due to generic competition. We remain on track to record Adjusted EBITDA losses of less than $50 million for the year and to exit the year profitable on an Adjusted EBITDA basis.”

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080724/20080723006387.html?.v=1

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...so wie ich es verstehe:ALLES prima.....Verluste halbiert,Einnahmen etwas höher als erwartet,Einnahmen der EDT etwas geringer als erwartet ,nix PML,am Ende des Jahres auf EBITA-Basis profitabel,hoffnungsfroh was BAP-Resultate betrifft....



Print | Close this window
Elan halves Q2 loss, sees profitability by year-end
Thu Jul 24, 2008 2:23am EDT

DUBLIN, July 24 (Reuters) - Irish drugmaker Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)on Thursday posted a basic loss per share of 15 cents in the three months to the end of June, halving its loss compared with the second quarter of 2007.

Four analysts had on average expected a loss of 12.6 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

"We remain on track to record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) losses of less than $50 million for the year and to exit the year profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis," Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said in a statement. (Reporting by Andras Gergely, editing by Will Waterman)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 256053 7/24/2008 2:22:41 AM
By: zamboni_kid

Elan is focused on building upon its breakthrough research and extensive experience in Alzheimer’s disease

Does this sound like a company that will announce spectacular data Juy 29 @ ICAD?

I'm a simple iceman - but breakthrough is a pretty strong word.
Will be a great ICAD - sorry I'm not able to be in Sweet home Chicago for the fireworks.



Alzheimer’s disease and other neurodegenerative diseases

Elan is focused on building upon its breakthrough research and extensive experience in Alzheimer’s disease, and other neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson’s disease. With bapineuzumab, (AAB-001, a monoclonal antibody targeted against beta amyloid peptide), Elan and Wyeth continue to actively investigate and enroll patients into four Phase 3 clinical studies located throughout North America and the ROW. In June 2008, the companies announced encouraging top-line results from the Phase 2 clinical trial of bapineuzumab for Alzheimer’s disease. The full Phase 2 data will be presented at the International Congress of Alzheimer’s Disease (ICAD) on July 29, 2008.

The FDA has accepted the Investigational New Drug Application (IND) for AAB-002, a back up monoclonal antibody to bapineuzumab. Additionally, an IND has been submitted for ELND-006, a small molecule gamma-secretase inhibitor.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 256068 7/24/2008 4:54:26 AM
By: jfa15ie

KM on RTE Morning Ireland radio this morning

Bullish comments from KM. I can't remember the exact words but basically said "strong efficacy and safety profile" for Bap. Nothing we don't know already but still nice to hear on the radio.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.575.994 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 10:55:49

Morning business news - July 24
Thursday, 24 July 2008 10:00

ELAN BANKING ON NEW ALZHEIMER'S DRUG - Pharmaceutical company Elan has been one of the best performers on the Irish stock market in the last 12 months, managing to avoid the drastic drop in values experienced by many other companies. Its shares closed at €22.07 in Dublin last night, not far from its yearly high of €23.60

This morning, it has reported a net loss of $71.5m for the second quarter of the year, a decrease of 49% from the net loss of $141.1m reported the same time last year. The Athlone-based company said that its revenues jumped by 30% to $245.6m, driven by a strong performance from its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri. It said it was confident of revenues reaching $1 billion by the end of the year.

Elan's CEO Kelly Martin, speaking from New York, says the company has spent nearly 15 years - from early science to the final phase three stage of testing - on a new drug to treat Alzheimer's disease. He says the company will release all the data for the drug next week at a very large neurology meeting in Chicago. He says that data so far is very positive for the drug - its benefit to patients, Elan's view of its safety and its suitability to certain types of patients with the disease. He says that Alzheimer's disease is very complicated and no two patients are the same.

Mr Martin says the need of a treatment for Alzheimer's is 'pretty immense'. He points out that there are 15 million people plus around the world who have mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. Analysts expect that to grow to between 30 and 40 million in the next decade. He says it is probably the largest single market that is yet untapped by the biotech or pharmaceutical business. He says that having a successful drug for the disease - or a serious of successful drugs - would be of enormous benefit to Elan, its shareholders and to employees.

The Elan boss says the pharmaceutical business is a tough, complicated one. He says there is always risk, but there is also always reward. Science is always uncertain, he warns. He says the company has worked extremely hard over the last five years to combine what he hopes is very significant and skilled business management expertise with superior science.


http://www.rte.ie/business/reports/mibusiness.html

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.576.293 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 11:23:30

...gehe jetzt in die Sonne!Konferenz call heute um 14.30h höre ich mir an!(auf der Terasse... Bis später!

[Poppholz]

finanzen.net
Elan kann Verlust im zweiten Quartal halbieren
Donnerstag 24. Juli 2008, 12:23 Uhr


Dublin (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der irische Pharmakonzern Elan Corp. plc (ISIN IE0003072950/ WKN 903801) meldete am Donnerstag, dass sich sein Verlust im zweiten Quartal halbiert hat, was mit einem Umsatzwachstum bei seinem MS-Medikament Tysabri zusammenhängt.

Demnach belief sich der Nettoverlust auf 71,5 Mio. Dollar bzw. 15 Cents pro Aktie, gegenüber einem Minus von 141,1 Mio. Dollar bzw. 30 Cents pro Aktie im Vorjahr. Der operative Verlust verringerte sich von 110,5 Mio. Dollar auf 36 Mio. Dollar. Der Umsatz nahm indes um 30 Prozent auf 245,6 Mio. Dollar zu.

Analysten waren im Vorfeld von einem Verlust von 13 Cents pro Aktie und einem Umsatz von 249,5 Mio. Dollar ausgegangen. Für das laufende Quartal sehen sie ein EPS-Ergebnis von -12 Cents bei Erlösen von 269 Mio. Dollar.

Für das Gesamtjahr rechnet der Konzern weiterhin mit einem Umsatz von rund 1 Mrd. Dollar. Analysten sehen hier Erlöse von 1,05 Mrd. Dollar.

Die Aktie von Elan (Dublin: DRX.IR - Nachrichten) verliert in London zurzeit 4,05 Prozent auf 21,11 Euro. (24.07.2008/ac/n/a)

[bernie55]

von CC live.....zum Thema AAB


Slippry Dick Asking About AN-1792 Report...

....Kelly Just Slapped Him Down......`" Elan Will Respond At ICAD The Results Will Be Illuminating "

KM pointed out that the AN1792 report was based on 10 or fewer patients whereas PII was 300

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.578.668 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 15:16:26

these guys know who Dick is and what he is all about...they know what mode to switch to once they hear those annoying suspicious questions. I really think KM handled it professionally and with a little hint of excitement at the end. Very well done! Wish I could meet KM, I know I couldnt be so patient in a work situation with an idiot like that...

[bernie55]

.....KM hört sich gut an.......klar.....irgendwie souverän.....soweit ich diese " Kauderwelsch " verstehe...

.....ich muss jetzt leider los......haltet die Stellung.....äähhmm die Ohren...

[Bachalor]

auch wenn es vieleicht heute etwas schmerzt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.578.732 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 15:23:25

ja--echt--ich beginne ihn zu MÖGEN----

Alles prima---die Alz-Konferenz wird "illuminating"sein....

[Bachalor]

ich glaube wir sehen die 30 heute nochmal kurz von unten
denn die amis lesen erst

was,wieder dickes minus im quartal

dann nach genauerem hinsehen lesen sie

was,nur noch halbsoviel minus


sk fast im grünen


nur die meinung eines unwissenden

[Bachalor]

mächtig hektik zur zeit


http://datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/JArcaBook.php?Sy…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

schade,dass ich nicht noch mehr erwerben kann.... Wallstreet ist echt eine kriminelle Vereinigung der Dealer linke Tasche/rechte Tasche...

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.579.018 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 15:48:42

nur verbrecher

schau dir mal z.b den fünftageschart von apple in usa an


haben klasse quartal vorgelegt
wie immer ein zu konservativen ausblick
und was passiert
es werden nur gerüchte gestreut über steve jobs seine angebliche erneute krebserkrankung

damit verdienen einige sich eine goldene nase

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.579.081 von Bachalor am 24.07.08 15:54:04

ja-so ist es...ich hatte auch einen Apple-Call,der dadurch ins Trudeln kam.....deshalb werde ich bei Elan einen gaaaaaaaaaaaanz langen Atem haben...!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.579.140 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 15:58:43

wer hat das denn gedacht, unser ELAN ist stabiller als Daimleraktien

[surga]

sieht so aus, dass versucht wird, die Zittrigen raus zu schmeißen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

UNVERSCHÄMTHEIT!

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.579.533 von surga am 24.07.08 16:29:19

Jetzt reicht es aber. So einen Schrottwert wie Daimler, der von 78 € auf 38 € also über 50 % Miese einfährt mit einem Kronjuwel wie ELAN zu vergleichen. So was verstehe ich nicht mal mehr als Spaß an.

Da ist die übliche sell on good news schon eher lachhaft. - Will nur nicht wissen, was passiert, wenn über BAP tatsächlich Positives berichtet werden sollte!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.580.494 von HAL11000 am 24.07.08 18:10:56

!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ENDLICH wird offen gesagt,dass PML nix mit Tysabri zu tun hatte!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




ELN msg # 256286 7/24/2008 11:11:04 AM
By: field-this

Finally!!!!!!!!

Elan says 2Q sales of MS drug surge
Thursday July 24, 10:25 am ET
By Shawn Pogatchnik, Associated Press Writer

Elan says 2Q sales grow, forecasts MS drug to become $1 billion `blockbuster' soon

DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) -- Biopharmaceutical company Elan Corp. PLC reported narrowing second-quarter losses Thursday as sales surged for its multiple sclerosis-fighting drug, Tysabri.

Revenue rose 30 percent to $245.6 million in the April-June quarter, chiefly because of Tysabri, which is produced and distributed in alliance with U.S. drugmaker Biogen Idec Inc.

Elan cut its losses nearly in half to $71.5 million, from a $141.1 million loss in the second quarter of 2007. Executives said they hoped to report narrower full-year losses and a 2009 return to profit -- which would be Elan's first since the company nearly went bankrupt amid an accounting scandal in 2002.

The fate of Ireland's largest pharmaceutical company rests with Tysabri, which appears finally on the verge of attaining Elan's ambition of a "blockbuster" drug that exceeds $1 billion in annual sales."About 32,000 sufferers of MS, an incurable disease that attacks the central nervous system causing sudden partial paralysis, are already taking Tysabri, nearly triple the level of 12 months ago.

Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said Elan hoped to reach 100,000 Tysabri customers by the end of 2010, while current projections pointed to 90,000.

It's a strong turnaround from 2005, when Elan faced potential financial ruin over the surprise withdrawal of Tysabri. Three clinical users of Tysabri contracted a rare brain disease called PML, and two died.

But Elan and Biogen have reported no new cases since Tysabri's return to the market under restricted conditions in June 2006."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And then this............. DRUM ROLL PLEASE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cooke said neurologists and their MS patients in North America and Europe were increasingly confident that Tysabri -- widely acknowledged from the start as better at suppressing the effects of MS than older treatments -- was safe when used on its own. The three PML victims were simultaneously taking another MS-fighting drug; such combined therapy has been banned since 2005."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You active email types, be sure to send Shawn a thank you.

Keep it simple.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.580.494 von HAL11000 am 24.07.08 18:10:56

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.580.604 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 18:23:21

ich brauche am nächsten we 3 zimmer für

die classic days in jülchen
denn ich muss

www.grillwagen.de

ist das in deiner nähe

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.581.328 von Bachalor am 24.07.08 19:49:17

..check doch mal den Routenplaner, Bachalor....

http://www.de.map24.com/

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.581.354 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 19:52:15

ich weiss


die haben in der nähe zimmerpreise

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.581.354 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 19:52:15

das bin icke




wenn ihr kein grill für die shorties habt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...ich bin ganz,ganz ,sauer,Bernie-und NIE wieder süss....schmoll...:O----22,34------------------WHY?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.582.491 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 22:07:36

sorry,so schlimm auch nicht...32,34$!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.582.507 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 22:08:50

.........

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.581.381 von Bachalor am 24.07.08 19:55:46

..Currywurst mit Brötchen...ab und an mal auch mit Pommes " rot-weiß "

....zieh ich mir ab und zu auch mal rein....aber am liebsten nur da, wo ich meine " roots " habe....

...im Ruhrpott....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.582.491 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.07.08 22:07:36

...ich bin ganz,ganz ,sauer,Bernie-und NIE wieder süss

...einigen wir uns lieber auf süß-sauer..

> Birgit Chop Suey <

Grüße bernie55

[bernie55]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.582.730 von bernie55 am 24.07.08 22:35:51

nix süss-sauer...SAUER PUR!!!!!!!!!!!Aber mein Söhnchen hat Huhn süss-sauer heute gekocht und das war "trotz Elan" LECKER...!

Guts Nächtle!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Author: jivetalkin03


The good news is
Is that the 'sell the news' theory is now dead.
AH action on July 29th should be fun to watch.
The post ICAD CC should also prove to be huge.
Not many P2 trial results have warranted such an event .
This will be the icing on the cake.


Hey the pre ICAD action of the last few days shouldn't surprise anyone.
The AD drug trial field, like love, is a battlefield. Littered with casualties.
Just look at our competition. One by one they have fallen by the wayside.
Victims of stock market run drug trials. Logic says to expect more of the same.
And many have bet against it.


How wrong will they be. The scramble to cover will be fast and furious.
Watch the AH action when its revealed that AAB works in both groups equally.
This will add fuel to the fire. Have a drink, set the Tivo and enjoy the shorts roast away.
The pps action has pretty much killed the buy the rumor sell the fact that the street loves.
The coil is wound tight.


KM has set the table for a world class event.
A disease modifying drug for Alzheimer's has never existed before.
Millions atand to benefit from 20 years of research. AAB will be a blockbuster.
The post ICAD press will be intense, expect heavy mainstream press coverage.
A slew of major upgrades will follow ICAD. EDT will also force pps readjustments.


All in all its a pretty exciting time for Elan, its investors and mankind.


Jive

[bernie55]

I thought KM was at his best in today's intro talk!!!

This is about the MOST CONFIDENT I have ever heard him.

I can't get the exact words but he basically said,

"This is the best position Elan has ever been in since I've been here!!!"
"We can't wait to share the results at ICAD with you and the world"
"The results will be illuminating"

The FIVE pronged plan which they are currently executing...deftly described again as it was during Company Day in May...

WTF is with you people? This was a great perspective from someone who has seen the full results and this is getting set up like the commercial where the astronaut (Tiger Woods) is about to hit a golf ball into space from the moon!

The market can get it wrong all it wants. It can look at the Lancet article and think that the anti-amyloid program is the wrong target. Dopey analysts and writers can mischaracterize the truth. The people behind 25 million shorted shares want to make you doubt your position. they want you to sell your shares. They want YOUR shares!

WE KNOW BETTER AND SO DOES KM!!!!

All you need to do is go back and realize what they revealed in the top line data and you KNOW that they have a drug to IMPROVE the lives of millions of AD patients!!!! With 6-12 month safety data we will file and the FDA will approve this drug.

You think I'm lying? You think I'm a pumper?

Wait till next week....

This is so easy. Just go back and listen to the first 5 mins of Kelly's talk today. He may not speak often, but when he does, LISTEN!!!!!

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=256667&pt=…

[Poppholz]

der Chart sieht sehr gut aus.

Unser Baby steigt halt gerne "wellenförmig" nach oben. Somit ist der Kursrückgang schon in Ordnung.

Nächste Woche wird gut für uns werden. Auf jeden Fall bezüglich der langfristigen Entwicklung unseres Babys. Der Kurs ist schwer vorhersehbar, aber durch die Kurskorrektur in den letzten Tagen bin ich positiv gestimmt, dass wir nächste Woche auch bei guten News steigende Kurse sehen werden.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.583.971 von Poppholz am 25.07.08 09:05:31

...ich habe mir den 5 Jahreschart angesehen...

..wellenförmiges Up und Down bei schwerer bis mittelschwerer Brise...

...auf jeden Fall.....up....up...up...ist angesagt....

...in der nächsten Woche wollen wir doch mal sehen, was dann BIGS wieder veranstalten.....


@ HEY BIGS

...auch wenn ein B von uns ab und zu werden sollte oder macht....

PCBBS nimmt den Kampf auf..

Nur zur Info: wir haben im übrigen bis jetzt immer gesiegt..

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Das B ist echt--aber es ist NATURELLEMENT mit der Gesamtfirma weiterhin kämferisch + siegessicher!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also,dann wollen wir mal:

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Irish Independent

By John Mulligan


Friday July 25 2008

Irish drug company Elan, which yesterday reported a 30pc rise in second-quarter revenues on the back of the success of its Tysabri multiple sclerosis treatment, has confirmed it is exploring options in relation to its drug technology unit that could lead to a sale or flotation valuing it at up to $1.4bn.

Elan chief executive Kelly Martin also said the company will make a decision within the next eight weeks on the location for a major new €200m manufacturing site in the country.

Elan said that revenue climbed to $241.7m (€154.2m) in the three months to the end of June as sales of Tysabri accelerated. The company also halved its net loss to $71.5m from $141.1m a year earlier.

Shares in the company slumped almost 9pc in Dublin, however, after the Bloomberg newswire carried an article suggesting that side effects associated with Elan's Alzheimer's disease treatment, which is undergoing trials, could derail the drug.

The treatment, Bapineuzumab, is being developed in conjunction with pharma giant Wyeth.

"We can't definitively say it's going to work and it's safe. It's going to be several years before we have that answer," said David Heupel, of Minneapolis- based Thrivent Financial.

It's expected that the planned new manufacturing facility would manufacture the drug if it's introduced to the market.

Mr Martin said that a "tremendous amount of work" had been done in determining the ideal location for the new manufacturing site, but said that the investment required means it would be a "significant decision".

The company's drug technology unit has "very good growth prospects", said Mr Martin.

It's believed that Elan has engaged Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to assess options for the technology arm.

Elan's Tysabri drug, which was developed and is marketed in conjunction with Biogen-Idec, is being used by 31,800 people. The companies expect that 100,000 will be using it by 2010. At current prices, that could equate to annual sales of the drug of about $2.8bn (€1.8bn).

Investment bank Cowen & Company said that the Alzheimer drug could net annual sales of between $7bn and $8bn by 2015 if it's successfully introduced to the market.

Davy Stockbroker's analyst Jack Gorman said that Elan's second-quarter performance was "broadly in line" with his forecasts, but added that the focus for investors will be on next week's update on Bapineuzumab.

"The question with bapineuzumab really is, is the side effect profile manageable?" he said.

Elan shares closed down 8.8pc in Dublin at €20.12.

- John Mulligan

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Stillorgan1

Questions and Illuminating Answers from 2QCC Pt 1
Some of the questions and response relating to the Alzheimer's programm from Elan's 2Q 2008 CC from my incomplete notes (not exact):

Jack Gorman, Davy Stockbrokers,
Question I know, guys, that you are not talking specifically on the Alzheimer's programms, obviously, ahead of ICAD. I wonder whether you can give any broad update on when the market should expect any update on kind of manufacturing plans? So if you could give me any color on that? . . .

Kelly Martin, CEO Elan: Ok, the manufacturing plant: we are sort of reaching ... we‘ve been in analysis and review of the biological plant topic for Elan. That process has been going on for almost a year. I would say, Jack, that we are within a few months of having our final recommendation and then decision about moving forward. I would say that there are two points to that. One is, obviously, AAB-001 is an important part of that decision, but it is not the only part of that decision because when you look into our pipeline there are multiple and other biologics that we have that we want to make sure that from a strategic point of view that we can participate in across the full value chain. So, I think it would be reasonable for the market to expect us to provide clarity around the manufacturing topic in the next couple of months.
. . .
Rich Silver with Lehman Bros
... At ICAD on next Wednesday apparently there is going to be results from a small study that was published in the Lancet that Elan was not involved in on AN-1792. Can you just comment on that, just to educate some people here on what your thoughts are on that study?

Kelly Martin: I think it is Thursday [when that presentation will take place], Rich. Let’s see, if we comment on, I mean, the Nichols group was part of the AN-1792 trial. They have written a number of papers on their – what I would characterize – small subset of patients, I believe the patients in their subset was less than 10. And therefore as clinicians, they can write whatever they want, they have lots of observations. I would say that their observations on less than 10 patients vs. a full trial of over 300 is pretty much incomplete as far as looking at the whole picture And I think that there will be an opportunity for Elan specifically to have some dialogue around that. So I think that it is Thursday to be specific. I believe that they will present their observations based on a small number of patients and then we will present the full picture with all the patients and that will put their observations in perspective. So, if you are at ICAD I would encourage you to go to that because I think it will be illuminating.

Corey Davis, Natixis [Bleichroeder].: . Number one, does the Phase 3 Protocol for bapineuzumab still call for the patients to get MRI scans every three months for the patients for the full 18 month period?
KM: I don’t know exactly, but I will find out for you, Corey. I have a view but I want to verify that, so I will do that.
CD: Fair enough. Number two would be: at some point in time, will we know whether or not you would be able to file this BLA on somewhat of an interim basis prior to the completion of the full 18 month endpoint? And Is it fair to assume that you could file, on whatever basis, with just the two US trials in the US, and not have to wait for the completion of Europe before you could file in the US?
KM: Ummm, I think you could assume that there has been and will continue to be a reasonable amount of discussion between Wyeth, Elan, and the Regulators. I think it’s premature for us to give, certainly, for us or Wyeth to give clarity on that topic. I think you know, the old standbys are: a) It depends on the data; b) It depends on the view of the regulator. The regulator is going to look at both safety and efficacy, obviously. The way we have designed our Phase 3 trials, which has been pointed out by a number of people, is that from a power point of view, it looks at least ample or more than ample. We did that on purpose. So, it’s going to be a process that with the Regulators, in dialogue with ourselves and Wyeth that we undergo on a continuous basis and ultimately it will be up to them.
I think that there are multiple opportunities, Corey, and possibilities from a filing point of view that may exist for us and Wyeth that use any combination of trials and locations. But that will have to be completely agreed to with the Regulators. And if we have reached, if we reach a point where we have complete clarity on that, then that I suspect that that is information that Wyeth and ourselves that we would share that with the marketplace But it would be premature to do it now.

// words that were strongly emphasized by Kelly Martin: Elan ICAD discussion will be *illuminating*

The power for regulatory support in the Phase 3 trials will be *ample or more than ample*

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

:OELN msg # 256604 7/24/2008 6:16:24 PM
By: berkstump2

95 MPH and down the middle, A rant on today

Today was a textbook perfect day of Eln PPS in action.

Today we all got it read to us from the Eln Manual....again.

Slovenly, insipid, inadequately researched, misrepresented , gross and
sophomoric missives, branded as "News" were inserted into
the collective media consciousness and virally spread throughout the
Investing Universe. In a heartbeat.

Coincidence?

If there is anyone here who is pondering the possibility of"coincidence",
you are either a smart as a rock or you haven't owned Eln terribly long.
Welcome to your boot camp experience, Baby.
This ain't Kansas and you are far too ungly and overweight to resemble
Dorothy.

Not too long ago, I was very interested to fing one MB'r here who was
dismayed by the concept that this investment was a "battlefield". The
pejorative nature of that characterization was just too ugly to grasp.

I also read Oxledge's musings about why anybody would not want to support
a seemingly positive development in the fight against AD.
(Reminds me of the fight to adopt a 'safe' form of electric power transmission.
In that one T.A Edison, out 'beloved' grandfatherly All-American Inventer
worked unceasingly to skewer his competition who was supporting AC power.
And that Man's name was.....?)

Ethical?
Doing what's right?
Supporting a potentially life-affirming, paradigm-changing answer to the
plaque of Alzeimer's?

You have got to be kidding me.

It an't about doing what's right.
And it ain't about being civilized.

This is unabashed warfare, Baby.
thgis is about doing whatever it takes to win, No holds barred.
Sell your Mother if you have to.
Lie to your wife if you have to.
Lie to yourself if you have to.

Whatever it takes to make that buck.


Now, given what we have seen for Media 'content' today, here is your
question for tonight:

Do you really think that these Predators are done with this kind of virulence?

Do you really think that the next 4 days are going to filled with peace, love
and understanding?

[bernie55]

goodbody

Elan Corporation (Add, Closing Price $32.34)
Strong Q2 results offset by lack of commentry on AAB-001

Analyst: Ian Hunter
Yesterday Elan announced a strong set of results for Q208. Revenue for the quarter of $245.6m was 2.8% ahead of our forecast ($238.9m) and adjusted EPS of $0.15 was c.8% ahead of our forecast, due to lower COGS and higher Tysabri sales. Tysabri is continuing its strong performance and the company is confident of meeting its goal of 100,000 commercial patients on the drug by 2010. As expected, little new information was provided regarding AAB-001 ahead of Elan and Wyeth's presentation at ICAD on next Tuesday. In relation to EDT, the company said in the conference call that it was in no rush to complete the strategic review process and is looking for a solution that will provide EDT with access to capital. The share price slipped c.3.6% yesterday to close at $32.34.

We expect continued volatility ahead of and through the ICAD meeting as we assess the degree of significance in the AAB-001 data within the ApoE non-carrier patient population as well as the strength of trend in the carrier population and degree of adverse reactions within that patient population.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=256741&pt=…

[Poppholz]

ich gehe von einem grünen Ende am heutigen Handelstag in den USA aus.

Die Talsohle sollte erreicht sein.

(aber was weiß ich denn schon)

[bernie55]

Today was actually a positive sign for ELN

24-Jul-08 08:55 pm

This may appear ironic but I see the today’s activity as a sign that ELN is positioned for a significant upside. On the day that Dow lost 2% and ELN posted not so great earnings we saw only a 3.5% drop. You would have expected that with 3 days left before the Phase II data release anyone who is not here for the long haul would have headed for the doors. Well some did but not nearly in numbers that you would expect. With days in past 2 weeks when ELN lost 3%-5% and recovered in the next couple of sessions, I am in-fact encouraged by today’s outcome. I am not a stock broker what do I know, so let me stick to what I know, science.

Can the drug work?

First, I am a human genetesist by training with focus on complex traits. I became interested in ELN back in 2006 as my father was being recruited for the AAB-001 study. As you can imagine I did a ton of research on this topic and used my access to the leading researchers in the space to validate the approach that ELN is taking in treating this disease.

As many of you on this thread know very well there is no absolute consensus on whether Neurofibrillary tangles and Amyloid Plaques are the cause or the byproduct of the disease. Yet there is a considerable body of scientific evidence that does argue in favor of theory that Plaques and tangles are causative. It is impossible to come up with a single mechanism for complex diseases such as Alzheimer, in fact there is no one pathway or one cause. Rather a complex disease is a spectrum of symptoms cased by a number of underlying genetic variations. In fact Alzheimer may very well may have 3 or 4 different etiologies so I am very encouraged that ELN found that AAB-001 works only on a subset of their subjects. They may very well have the solution for one of the etiologies.

Does the drug work?

At the first glance results looks promising but I am a bit concerned that the observation of AAB-001 impact on a subgroup of the subjects was made post hoc. While not ideal validity of this study totally depends on how many other post hoc analysis they have done on the same set of subjects. If the stratification of subjects based on APOE4 genotype was the only one or one of the very few post hoc re-analysis of the data set then I am more confident. Any good scientist knows with each analysis you are decreasing the power of your study and higher chance that you may see something by pure coincidence.

Now the tough part

I have to assume that reputable companies such as ELN and Wyeth and a tough FDA committee would have asked these questions before permitting the study to progress to Phase III, this is statistics 101.

As for me I am long with this stock and have been for some time. Call it a gut feeling or scientific instinct I do believe in AAB-001. My father unfortunately did not qualify for the study as he had a pacemaker so I am left only with the hope that AAB-001 would be approved before he has lost more than memories of the day before. Regardless I cherish every day that I have with my Dad and know sooner or later the cure will be here.


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks…

[Poppholz]

hat von Euch einer die 350 EAN in FFM zu €20,05 bekommen?

Verkauft brauche ich ja wohl nicht fragen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.586.839 von Poppholz am 25.07.08 14:30:50

...leider nicht----nix mehr moos.....Grüsse...ich arbeite im Moment lieber als mir die Kurse anzugucken...:O

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.586.839 von Poppholz am 25.07.08 14:30:50

- Verkauft brauche ich ja wohl nicht fragen. -

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.094 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.07.08 15:01:28

ich arbeite im Moment lieber als mir die Kurse anzugucken

Vorschlag...ein bisschen mehr Ausgleich schaffen..

..arbeiten und gleichzeitig Kurse angucken...

[bernie55]

7 Million phone calls next week...

1. 1M to WYE
2. 1M to ELN
3. 1M to the FDA
4. 1M to the local Doc's around the world from the families.
5. 1M by the media to everywhere wondering where in the hell did
all this come from.
6. 1M to the US Government demanding any slight of hope for this
dreadful sickness.
7. 1M by the Big Fish everywhere..trying to figure out how to get
a piece of the pie before it's too late.

[Bachalor]

auch wenn es heute wohl wieder schmerzt

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.360 von Bachalor am 25.07.08 15:29:15

auch wenn es heute wohl wieder schmerzt

..aber Bachalor.......wir sind sowas von abgehärtet...

....kennen unsere ELAN ja schon seit über 3 Jahren.....

..die BIG POINTS kommen noch...

32,59 -32,64

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.306 von bernie55 am 25.07.08 15:25:28

....wie soll ich das verstehen-lässt Du Deine Klienten das IV-Board "flüssig" vorlesen???????...also wirklich...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 256832 7/25/2008 9:44:00 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

Optimistic Pump of Elan

Elan is arriving.

- Tysabri sales are soaring and accelerating uptake (today, theoretically, is the day it turns into a blockbuster)

- Elan has outright said that AAB works, Wyeth and Elan are flying their top scientists and the person running the regulatory side of the program to Chicago to address investors after the AAB P2 presentation. KM said that Dick Silver would be illuminated - and you can be sure KM does not want to make that dufus look like a genius next Tuesday.

- Elan has an oncology trial now, has 50% of LLY's lead AD P3 drug, has an AD vaccine in P2, has an oral AD product in P2, is filing an IND for a specific gamma secretase modulator, has a P2 MS small molecule program starting at YE, is moving slowly into gastroenterology indications with Tysabri, apparently can address glaucoma-diabetes-and-cerebral amyloid angiopathy with AAB.

- Elan has a nice solid and potentially explosive business in EDT where there are a dozen products on the market and another 3-4 dozen in various stages of clinical development.

Do you think that everyone knows this already? Yes they do. What do hedge funds do prior to a positive event? They attempt to create uncertainty and imbalances that allow them to accumulate shares cheaply prior to the event itself. What do we do? We smile and hold or smile and use their actions to accumulate more for ourselves.

All Elan shareholders can now take heart: the time for redemption and celebration is at hand. We have battled for years my brothers and sisters and the Elysian Fields will be in view on Tuesday evening.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.349 von bernie55 am 25.07.08 15:28:17

7 Million phone calls next week...


Und alle haben ihre Anschlüsse umgeleitet zu Bernie nach Hause ... brüll

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.523 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.07.08 15:44:07

-lässt Du Deine Klienten das IV-Board "flüssig" vorlesen??????? ...also wirklich...

....ich hatte eigentlich eher an deine Klienten gedacht......

...mal ein ......dann wieder ein ....auch mal ein :O...und wieder ein .....etc..

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.444 von Holgus am 25.07.08 17:17:18

Und alle haben ihre Anschlüsse umgeleitet zu Bernie nach Hause ...


...da siehst du mal , was ich für eine Leitung habe...

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.577 von bernie55 am 25.07.08 17:29:51

..da siehst du mal , was ich für eine Leitung habe.


Bernie, der als Kind schon früh ein Lattilein hatte

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.676 von Holgus am 25.07.08 17:41:04

....................


....ich wusste, dass du meinen " verbalen Köder " fressen wirst.......

.....YYYYEEEEEPPPPP.....

.....so gut kenne ich dich WO-mäßig schon .....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.676 von Holgus am 25.07.08 17:41:04

na,na,na----HOLGUS....:O

Unser Kellilein gibt bald ein TOLLES Interview----naaaaaaaa-und was sagt er wohl zu Bapi?????

Author: bryan2464



KM on CNBC next week
And Elanians, I'm happy to report, that ELN ELAN CORP PLCELN
33.44 1.10 +3.4% NYSE



[ELN 33.44 1.10 (+3.4%) ] CEO Kelly Martin will be joining me for a "First on CNBC" live interview from the Alzheimer's conference in Chicago. His appearance, which is his first on CNBC in about four years, will take place on "Squawk on the Street" around 9:40 a.m. ET next Wednesday, the morning after the highly anticipated detailed test results are released on the Alzheimer's drug Elan shares with Wyeth WYETHWYE
45.75 0.94 +2.1% NYSE

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.728 von bernie55 am 25.07.08 17:45:39

!........

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.588.732 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.07.08 17:46:01

--naaaaaaaa-und was sagt er wohl zu Bapi????


Bapi ... was der Hund nicht ißt, frißt Papi

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.589.414 von Holgus am 25.07.08 19:21:02

....eher wenn Herrchen seinen Hund nicht mehr erkennt....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.587.360 von Bachalor am 25.07.08 15:29:15

auch wenn es heute wohl wieder schmerzt

Abschlusskurs USA:
33.64 USD + 1.30 USD


...mit diesem Schmerz können wir leben, Batschi...

[bernie55]

...aus Neuseeland...


New Alzheimer's drug inspires hope

B KATIE WYLIE - The Press | Saturday, 26 July 2008




Alzheimer's patients will be among the first to benefit from a breakthrough medicine now undergoing a worldwide drug trial.

Specialists are hailing the new drug as one of the most exciting developments in Alzheimer's disease research in decades.

Rather than merely slow the progression of the disease, initial results show the new drug, bapineuzumab, may actually treat the underlying causes of the debilitating dementia.

Global pharmaceutical companies Wyeth and Elan are behind the trial, now in its third and final phase. They are recruiting 1250 patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's from more than 20 countries.

In New Zealand, the trial will be in Christchurch and Auckland.

The trial involves infusion of either the drug or a placebo into patients every three months, with eight follow-up MRI scans over an 18-month period.

The drug is thought to work by acting on a protein which accumulates in the brain, causing cellular degeneration.

Christchurch geriatrician Dr John Elliot, one of the doctors leading the Canterbury trial, said the science behind the research was exciting. "It's the most interesting thing I've seen crop up in Alzheimer's in the last 20 years," Elliot said.

It would be too strong to suggest the drug would offer a cure for the disease, he said, but for the first time it offered hope of an "actual treatment".

It could offer more than existing drugs, which slowed the progression of the disease but did not address its cause, he said.

Initial results from phase two of the trial, released by Wyeth and Elan last month, showed "statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits" in some people.

Preliminary evaluation of MRI scans revealed less loss of brain volume in some participants, although adverse effects were common among drug and placebo recipients. These included vasogenic edema a condition in which abnormally large amounts of fluid accumulate in the brain.

Despite the adverse effects, researchers have determined that over all the phase two safety findings support progressing to a third phase.

Detailed results of phase two will be released at an international Alzheimer's conference in Chicago next week, with the trial expected to end in April 2011.

Alzheimer's New Zealand national director Lucille Ogston was cautious about championing the drug's benefits while final results and other crucial details such as cost were still unknown.

Bapineuzumab is a mono-clonal antibody, a type of drug which stimulates a patient's own immune system.

Other mono-clonal antibody therapies include herceptin the expensive breast cancer drug.

"Without sounding cynical or sceptical, we get information often that says this is the most exciting thing ...," Ogston said.

"I hope that's right. I just hope something's around the corner."

Elliot said recruiting for the trial in Christchurch would be targeted rather than voluntary, as participants needed to meet certain clinical criteria.

WHAT IS DEMENTIA?

Dementia is an umbrella term for neurological disorders where brain function is impaired, affecting language, memory, perception, personality and cognitive skills.

The most common cause is Alzheimer's disease.

An estimated 40,749 kiwis 1 per cent of the population have dementia. 60.22 per cent of those affected are women.

About 12,333 new cases are diagnosed each year.

Dementia will kill 1378 people this year.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4631462a11.html

[bernie55]

...so jetzt geht es wieder weiter ...

....ab ins Wochenende.....

..Grillfeste genießen....Bierchen......mmmmhhh.....lllecker....schöööönnnnnn....

....feiern....outdoor sein.....Sonne genießen.....relaxen.....


..euch allen ein schönes Wochenende.....bis spätestens zum 29.07.08..


Grüße bernie55

[bernie55]

...so ersten " Grillie-Day " geschafft...

..heute geht es weiter, bis dahin einfach mal ein paar aktuelle Infos aus der ELAN WORLD.....


..sprich aus dem " grün - safigen " ELAND.....ääähhmmmmm IRLAND...



Take profits at Elan

By Dan White
Sunday July 27 2008

SHAREHOLDERS in pharma firm Elan have enjoyed a rollercoaster ride over the past eight years.

Following the collapse in most Irish share prices, Elan has regained its position as Ireland's most valuable company. With the share price up by almost 50 per cent over the past year, now might be the time for shareholders to take some profits.

At Friday's share price of €21.20, Elan was valued at just over €10bn. This puts Elan comfortably ahead of AIB (€7bn), CRH (€9bn) and Bank of Ireland (€5.5bn) as the most valuable company whose shares are traded on the Irish Stock Exchange.

It wasn't always thus. After peaking at €73 in June 2001, the Elan share price went into freefall as long-standing doubts about what were perceived to be aggressive accounting policies crystallised. By the time the share price bottomed out in July 2002 it had fallen by 98 per cent to just €1.56. This reduced Elan's market value from €23.5bn to a mere €546m.

Then, like Lazarus, Elan came back from the apparent dead. As hopes for its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri rose so did the Elan share price. By February 2005 the Elan share price had recovered to €21 and its market value to €8.5bn.

However, in February 2005, Elan was forced to temporarily withdraw Tysabri from the market when a number of patients experienced adverse reactions in clinical trials. The impact on the share price was immediate and devastating. It dropped to €5.50, cutting Elan's market value to just €2.1bn.

While the Tysabri setback hurt Elan in the short term it is now clear that the company did the right thing by getting all of the bad news out in the open as quickly as possible. By clearing the decks in this manner it was plain to investors that Elan wasn't keeping any bad news back from the market and the share price quickly recovered once the problems with Tysabri were sorted out.

Over the past four and a half years, the share price has recovered all of its 2005 losses. The share price was also boosted by corporate raider Carl Icahn's abortive $23bn for Biogen, Elan's Tysabri partner, last October. Although it was eventually unsuccessful, the bid put a floor, estimated at between $10 and $15, under the Elan share price.

So having fallen and risen twice will it be third time unlucky for Elan shareholders? I don't think so. With the emergence of other promising drugs from its development pipeline, Elan is no longer a one-trick pony exclusively dependent on Tysabri. Even so, with the share price having almost quadrupled since its 2005 trough, anyone who bought in at anything close to those bargain-basement levels should now be thinking about locking in some of those paper profits.

- Dan White

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/take-profits-at-ela…

[bernie55]

quadrupled since its 2005

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.593.350 von bernie55 am 27.07.08 10:50:33

ELAND.....ääähhmmmmm IRLAND


Mensch Bernie, dieses Arschloch von Reporter will doch tatsächlich den Leuten nahelegen, Gewinne aus Elan zu realisieren.
Mit einer nicht schlecht gemachten Zustandsbeschreibung, muß ich ja zugeben, ...

Allerdings kein Wort über BAB und ICAD ... diese Sau. Der hofft doch tatsächlich, das morgen jede Menge Leute verkaufen ... ich fass es nich ... wie korrupt ist diese Welt ?!?

[Limerick1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.593.381 von bernie55 am 27.07.08 11:03:48

Dan White a funny man especially with ICAN next tuesday. Take profit now would be silly.

[Limerick1]

Dan white,??
With ICAD next tuesday why should a person take profit now.

[Limerick1]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert.

[Limerick1]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.593.997 von Holgus am 27.07.08 14:40:22

Mensch Bernie, dieses Arschloch von Reporter will doch tatsächlich den Leuten nahelegen, Gewinne aus Elan zu realisieren.



...don`t panic..

...looking in for some papaer profits > hat eigentlich noch niemandem geschadet..

....aber was so richtige ELANITES bzw. ELANIACS sind, die warten erst mal die ICAD ab......

..und warten dann nochmals 6-9 Monate.....

....und warten dann vielleicht nochmals 3 bis 9 Monate ab...

...tja und dann....

...dann fahren sie wohl erst die Ernte ein....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.594.190 von Limerick1 am 27.07.08 16:15:11

Take profit now would be silly

why should a person take profit now.


..you are bloody well right, Limerick1....

..a lot of German investors of this ELAN-board have been invested since April 05 ..
...they have become real ELANITES or ELANIACS....

.....and they all have invested because of the possible BIG story of Tysabri and BAP.....

Now we are at a point, we have dreamed for a long time.....

..to listen to " breathtaking and spectacular " news...

best wishes
bernie55

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.595.302 von bernie55 am 27.07.08 23:26:04

bist ja ganz narrisch


kannst wohl kaum 15.30 abwarten

[bernie55]

Dennis Selkoe July 27th recieves Award at ICAD


Dennis Selkoe, MD, codirector of the Center for Neurologic Diseases, received a Lifetime Achievement Award in Alzheimer's Disease Research at the 11th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease (ICAD) in Chicago, Ill.
The Lifetime Achievement Award is given to outstanding scientists who have dedicated themselves to helping millions around the world through their research. Selkoe received the award July 27.


http://www.brighamandwomens.org/publicaffairs/Awardsand%20Ho…

[bernie55]

Goodbody's Monday ICAD "Musings from the windy City" and "What to expect from AAB-001 Data"

Elan Corporation (Add, Closing Price $33.64);

Musings from the windy city

Analyst: Ian Hunter T [phone] E [e-mail]
With two days gone at the International Conference on Alzheimer’s Disease (ICAD), we have already heard from platform speakers that the release of the full AAB-001 Phase II data for the treatment of Alzheimer’s is potentially the most exciting event of the conference. This has, however, been tempered with the realisation that the data may only hold out hope for those AD patients that do not carry the ApoE4 allele. Given that 80% of those with familial AD and 63% with sporadic AD are ApoE4 carriers, this, in the eyes of geriatricians treating the entire AD population, “limits’ the potential of the drug. We also note that some European geriatricians, we were talking, to wish to assess the efficacy of the Phase II data before deciding whether or not to participate in the two Phase III trials being set up by Wyeth outside the US. At the time of the headline data announcement, we opined that the apparent efficacy would imply a valuation for Elan in the $25.70- to $33.05 per share range. We continue to believe that it would only take exceptional data (possibly implying potential to file on an interim look at the Phase III data) to move the price ahead of that range. All shall be revealed on Tuesday afternoon, CET.

What to expect from the AAB-001 data. We are now only a day away from sight of the full Phase II data from AAB-001 in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Overall headline data showed trend but no significance in a number of cognitive and functional tests between patients on the drug and on placebo. The drug did, however, have a significant effect over a range of cognitive tests on a sub-set of patients that were not carrying the ApoE4 allele. For that set of patients, we are looking for: (i) the number of patients in the trial that were ApoE4 non-carriers; (ii) the degree of significance in differences in patients in the cognitive battery of tests - ADAS-Cog, NTB, MMSE and CDR-SB (looking for low p values - under 0.05); (iii) the trend, if any, in improvements in functional abilities, as measured by DAD; (iv) the dose dependency of the results; (v) the time of onset of effects and duration of those effects; and, (vi) evidence of disease modification - changes in the rate of disease progression. From patients that were ApoE4 carriers, we are looking for the degree of divergent trend observed between those on the drug and those on placebo, leading to some indication of how close the drug was to providing a significant difference. Given that the overall trial was not significant, we do not hold out high hopes for the degree of trend in the ApoE4 carriers. On the overall data, our main interest will be on: (i) patient dropout rates (20% not unexpected); and, (ii) the safety profile. Under the latter, the main concern is the frequency of vasogenic edema, particularly within the ApoE4 carrier population. Ideally, we would like to see a low incidence overall, particularly in symptomatic cases. We will also be looking for MRI scan data (possibly reduced brain volume loss and a smaller increase in ventricular volume) and readings on beta-amyloid and Tau protein in the cerebral spinal fluid.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=257684&pt=…

[bernie55]

First hand accounts of BAP


article from Brain Matters research center:


Bapineuzumab can't cure Friedman's Alzheimer's. But it's supposed to slow the decline in memory. The results of the trial last year were successful enough for the FDA to allow Wyeth and Elan to begin an 18-month Phase 3 trial with about 2,000 patients around the country.

"Rather than taking the down escalator, we're seeing people leveling off," Brody said.
We're encouraged by the results....It's the first time that we've seen a stabilization of the disease. Stabilization is huge..."


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/business/epaper/20…

[bernie55]

Zeitplan ( GMT= GreenwichMeanTime) der ELAN Aktivitäten in dieser Woche:





Alzheimer's Association International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease 2008


29.07.08

ICAD Konferenz in Chicago

Title:
Clinical trials of bapineuzumab a beta-amyloid-targeted immunotherapy in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimers disease
Category: Therapeutic strategies, amyloid-based

M. Grundman + R. Black

Presentation Time at 4:00 p.m.

29.07.07 > 23.00 GMT <



Elan and Wyeth Announce Webcast To Discuss Bapineuzumab Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results

Company participants who will discuss the trial results and field questions will include:

Ron Black, MD, Wyeth Research, Asst. Vice President, Neuroscience.
Allison Hulme, PhD, Elan, EVP and Head of Global Development.
Dale Schenk, PhD, Elan, EVP and Chief Scientific Officer.

webcast at 6:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time

30.07.08 > 1.00 GMT <
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





30.07.08

Kelly Martin auf CNBC
live interview from the Alzheimer's conference in Chicago

around 9:40 a.m. Eastern Time

30.07.08 > 15.40 GMT <



....dann hoffe ich nur , dass ich die GreenwichMean Time richtig angegeben habe...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...über 34$heisst wieder ca.22€....nicht schlecht---und--was passiert MORGEN????-und wo stehen wir NACH der ALZ-Konferenz ÜBERMORGEN?? Prognosen Jungs?? Grüsse Birgit

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.506 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 16:40:06

und wo stehen wir NACH der ALZ-Konferenz ÜBERMORGEN?? Prognosen Jungs??


....ich würde sagen da, wo wir aktuell nicht stehen....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.506 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 16:40:06

über 34$heisst wieder ca.22€....


34,21 USD = 21,75 €

Aktuelle Wechselkurse:
1 EUR = 1,57330 USD (28.07. 16:45)

[bernie55]

@Birgit

Wenn meine Berechnungen stimmen, dann müssen wir morgen ab 23.00 Uhr wieder an den Compu ran....Konferenzschaltung ...

.....also, Birgit-Baby, halt dir den Termin ab 23.00 Uhr frei.....



ICAD Konferenz in Chicago
Presentation Time at 4:00 p.m.
29.07.07 > 23.00 GMT <

[Bachalor]

amgen hat es heute eilig

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.506 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 16:40:06

und wo stehen wir NACH der ALZ-Konferenz ÜBERMORGEN?? Prognosen Jungs??

..ich denke, Kurssprünge sind abhängig von den Ergebnissen....wie schlau, bernie55..

......sollten die Ergebnisse von BAP...." breathtaking"..." spectacular "...." illuminated " sein, dann wird die FDA unter Druck geraten und anfangen müssen, zu reagieren.....und ELAN wird in den Fokus der BIG PHARMAS geraten......

....tja, liebe Birgit, wenn das alles so eintreten sollte, dann...

..dann kann ich für nichts mehr garantieren...

...besser gesagt...der Flug zum Mond wäre dann der " bekannte Fliegenschiss " an der Wand.......

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.626 von bernie55 am 28.07.08 16:50:15

....klar!!Schon eingeplant!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.820 von bernie55 am 28.07.08 17:12:19

...oh,Du fliegst zum Mond....da will ich dann zuschauen!!

[Bachalor]

das heute alles anrufbeantworter hat

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.599.891 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 17:19:09

oh,Du fliegst zum Mond.... da will ich dann zuschauen!!

.....nö, kannst ruhig mitfliegen...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.600.014 von bernie55 am 28.07.08 17:32:23

nee...mir ist die Erde irgendwie doch lieber----aber virtuell bin ich dabei....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

By: persiflageur
Some interesting ICAD presentations today, including one by AN1792 investigator

Monday, July 28, 2008
10:30 a.m.–12:30 p.m. Symposia Sessions

http://www.alz.org/Icad/sessioninfo-08/072807-1030-1200-02.h…
S2-04-05 Abeta Immunotherapy in Alzheimer’s Disease
Roger Nitsch, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
[Nitsch was one of the primary Eln/Wye AN-1792 Ph2 investigators. Since then he has looking at the long term effect of AN-1792]
*******************************************
http://www.alz.org/Icad/sessioninfo-08/072808-0300-0500-o2.h…
3–5 p.m. Oral Sessions

O2-02 Disease Mechanisms: Beta-Amyloid

O2-02-06 Blocking Aβ42 Accumulation Delays the Onset and Progression of Tau Pathology and Cognitive Decline via CHIP: A Mechanistic Link Between ABeta and Tau Pathology
Salvatore Oddo, Antonella Caccamo, Bert Tseng, David Cheng, Vitaly Vasilevko, David H. Cribbs, Frank M. LaFerla

O2-02-03 Evidence That Amyloid Deposition Impairs Adult Hippocampal Neurogenesis [Hippocampus is the memory formation part of the brain]
Robert Siman, Chen Zhang, Elizabeth McNeil, Lindsay Dressler, Antony Dang

O2-02-05 Amyloid Causes Tauopathy by Activating GSK3 [Glycogen synthase kinase-3]
Fred Van Leuven, David Muyllaert, Dick Terwel, Ilse Dewachter

[Bachalor]

nächstes jahr im sommer
dow unter 10000
dax unter 5500

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

.....unglaublich ,dass die Spielchen immer wieder klappen....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.601.697 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 21:31:41

Wenn da man morgen überhaupt was passiert hinsichtlich der Kursentwicklung.
Schließlich hat Elan bei 14 von 15 Events jedesmal nicht die Erwartungen erfüllt.

Mist ... irgendwie hab ich 'n doofes Gefühl.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.601.728 von Holgus am 28.07.08 21:36:27

.....wenn die Daten gut sind,tut sich in den nächsten Tagen bestimmt etwas------die Aktienentwicklung spiegelt wider,wie umkämpft der ALZ-Markt ist---DA MÜSSEN WIR JETZT DURCH!(Du auch,Holgus....)

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.601.773 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 21:41:49

was ist eigentlich alzheimer


habe ich vergessen

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.601.773 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 28.07.08 21:41:49

Na gut, ich beiß einfach den einen oder anderen Zahn zusammen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.601.812 von Holgus am 28.07.08 21:47:57

...siehste-geht doch!!

[Bachalor]

Morsche



der schafft noch alle


US-Defizit erreicht Rekordstand

Das US-Etatdefizit wird im kommenden
Haushaltsjahr auf einen Rekordstand von
482 Mrd.Dollar ansteigen. Das kündigte
die US-Regierung an. Ursachen seien vor
allem die schwache Konjunktur und das
von der Präsident George W.Bush aufge-
legte Unterstützungsprogramm für 130
Millionen Haushalte.

Die tatsächliche Summe dürfte aller-
dings noch deutlich höher liegen, weil
in der Schätzung anders als bisher kei-
ne Kriegskosten enthalten sind. Diese
belaufen sich auf rund 80 Mrd.Dollar.
Der bisherige Rekord wurde im Jahr 2004
mit 413 Mrd.Dollar aufgestellt.

[bernie55]

Zeitplan ( GMT= GreenwichMeanTime) der ELAN Aktivitäten in dieser Woche:





Alzheimer's Association International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease 2008


29.07.08

ICAD Konferenz in Chicago

Title:
Clinical trials of bapineuzumab a beta-amyloid-targeted immunotherapy in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimers disease
Category: Therapeutic strategies, amyloid-based

M. Grundman + R. Black

Presentation Time at 4:00 p.m.

29.07.07 > 23.00 GMT <



Elan and Wyeth Announce Webcast To Discuss Bapineuzumab Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results

Company participants who will discuss the trial results and field questions will include:

Ron Black, MD, Wyeth Research, Asst. Vice President, Neuroscience.
Allison Hulme, PhD, Elan, EVP and Head of Global Development.
Dale Schenk, PhD, Elan, EVP and Chief Scientific Officer.

webcast at 6:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time

30.07.08 > 1.00 GMT <
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Heute ist unser grosser Tag


Das bestgehüteste Geheimnis

The worst kept secret on the Planet today von OKZ45


T S R W

Take it to the Bank. You really have to shake your head in disbelief as we read and listen to those
opining on how the s**t doesn't come close to working or that Elan is overpriced.

What we really have to do is to try and ignore our Bank Statement at these critical times in watching the tape and what the Pros do to the PPS in stocks like Elan. And I don't care whether it is expected data from ICAD meetings, OEX dates or Quarterly reports.

The tape will react to "surprises" in a positive or negative way. So trading in these securities needs a very special talent that most of us do not possess. I used to think I did. Many losses later I admitted to myself that the only strategy I could live with was as a pure investor.

Elan is really an open book since this Mngt. team took over in 2003. Transforming into a very
simple Business Model that is easy to follow has been only tough for those trying to saddle the present Elan with the past. The Street is still struggling with this, as are many on this MB.

A L Z H E I M E R is the main reason for Elan's existence. That theme was struck in early 2003.
Tysabri is as a offshoot of Elan's Alzheimer R& D as is the expected therapeutic compounds for Parkinson's and Diabetes.

The May 7 Conference was very illuminating and really was the culmination of five years work in
restructuring and refocusing Elan's operations. Those who haven't should try to replay that entire
webcast. It is that telling.

Tomorrow's release of BAP II full data should not be a surprise to anyone who has been watching this play out. It may take a few weeks to settle into a discernible pattern in the stock price, but positive it will be.

This is the time for we, as investors, need to use vision on the Corporation in judging our investment
in this stock. Times are tough, The General Market is in a decided Bear Market. It may take another year to shake out of those doldrums. I doubt that Elan'c Corporation will be materially hurt by this weak Business Cycle, but I come out from a time when the sheriff raided a whore house, they never leave anyone behind> There will be an effect.

During this period I expect that we will

Watch Elan Grow

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jetzt gehts erst richtig los

By: FaceReality Send PM Profile Ignore Recommend Add To Favorites
End of the Road or a serious New Beginning for Long Longs?

On Wednesday, many of us long-time Longs will have a major choice; Buy, Hold or Sell! Some know I have been around for a few years and have been clear that I have owned this stock primarily for the science of ALZ disease, namely AAB-001/Bap. Tysabri was the base, but the real potential game-changer has been BAP. I have taken the view that we have the very best science, that Bap is the driver of our future upside in the stock, as it validates the pipeline too. Elan then has the risks of remaining independent and the upside from a friendly run at ELN by Wyeth. I have also stated, to hostility from the Kool Aid fans on this Board, that ELN has a very weak commercial organization; - this I also still believe to be true, but it is just Crohn's and Prialt, so no big deal for now, but still harmful long-term.
Right now I can almost say I was correct on all these long-ago-stated fundamental beliefs. But so what and who the hell cares? I would guess not too many! Yet I want to make a few simple points that a few here might want to ponder tomorrow. Good data or not on BAP, we have important decisions to make as this is absolutely a major fork in our road at ELN as an investor.


1. We can start taking profits and sell on the way up if we exceed expectation with the data.
2. We can throw in the towel thinking all the fuel for the fire is out regardless of how good Bap data are.
3. We can get pissed off and sell when the good-to -react news is discounted and the normal sell-down starts.
4. We can look at the BAP facts, look at Tysabri growth and look at the really long-term potential value of the pipeline and "hunker down" for the next 3 years of up and down churning as the price and the market.
5. If we and the AD patients and their families are truly blessed, we could possibly learn of early filing, but my view is this is highly unlikely at this time and at this event. FDA/EMEA/ELN/WYE will remain locked in a play-by-play silent action in the dark until the ultimate decisions are made with 100% certainty as the Phase 3 program progress. Until all the facts are in, they will all be guarded and careful not to overstate, or overheat the world on such a hot topic with all parties.


Well, what I think will happen will disappoint many here; not me. I feel the best news will be hope for patients and their families that suffer the ravages of AD. Not much else will change here overnight. Yes, the price might go up or even down a few dollars on Wednesday, but the people, the players, the battles remain. The rules do not change and the markets do not turn friendly on Pase 2 -- this is still ELN remember!!!!! There will be no final victory lap for any of us on a Phase 2 result this week, even if we are excited and happy for patients. KM will be guarded in hwat he says as he still must deal with FDA/EMEA and he has critical a Phase 3 underway. The negative spin will prevail. The political pressure and legal pressure will have been applied in full measure before this event and they will play it down and state only the proven facts. Conservative caution and playing down even positive results will be the nature and tone of "the event" while many here think this alone will vindicate and redefine ELN -- and even some of us Longs to some degree. My friends, you just might be disappointed but I have faced that reality already and the rules of the real world will not change for ELN.

Bottom line, I look for this to be a very, very positive event for ELN, but it will not be the parting of the Red Sea. The reality is we still have miles to walk in these worn-out, old LONG shoes before we get to anything close to a full or fair valuation. I believe that in the end the amount of share price gain will still be determined by our perseverance, patients and out -lasting the negative hands and market manipulators. I just do not see total redemption this week from Phase 2 data. It will come and go as a major milestone and I hope validation of the science at Elan. However, as an investor, the game has many, many more hands to be played and we will still have all the big money lined up for and against this loved and hated stock. The level of distrust, doubt, fear and greed might actually accelerate. If we think tomorrow is our pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, I say it will be hope for AD patients and their families, but it will be business as usual for investors in and up and down battle, even at a price a few dollars higher. I do not think we will get a definative answer on early filing yet.

I remain in here for the LONGGGGGGGGGG haul and have never had a bigger position in ELN. Deep down I hope the seas do part and that I am wrong about the upward limits of our share price, but I think next week this Board will be right back at the battle against the stupid analysts, the hedge funds, the option players and the short sellers. Elan is still a "battleground stock". and we are unlikely to get on the SEC protected list for shorting. Know and accept it, or limit your gains a sell on this positive news! We will go much higher that the highs of this week or even the highs of next month. Our ultimate gains are only determined when we SELL, and I am a long way from that even if the news is better than the top line data on BAP. The bottom line for me is that the real show is just getting started tomorrow and the road ahead remains a long one full of additional rewards and even more volitility.

Good luck to all Longs and thanks for years of informative posts! I will drop in very few months and count on be being long for a few more years. Go ELan! May God bless the scientists and the patients who suffer!

Face Reality

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Goodbodys Der Tag bricht an.....

Elan Corporation (Add, Closing Price $31.90); The day dawns for the AAB-001 Phase II full data release.

Analyst: Ian Hunter T [phone] E [e-mail]

Ten to fifteen years ago, up to 95% of scientists studying Alzheimer’s disease would not have considered that beta-amyloid played an

important role in the development of the disease. How things have changed in the intervening period, with almost the same percentage

now considering it is pivotal. Awaiting the release of the full Phase II data from the AAB-001 trial for the treatment of AD later today, we

were tantalized by speakers yesterday morning, who set the scene to a packed auditorium (capacity over 1,200 with more wanting to

get in). In two presentations in the “Therapeutics: toward disease modification” session, presenters reviewed data from the AN-1792 trial

and follow on observations, as well as the AAB-001 Phase II headline data already released by the company. A further indication of the

current focus and interest on any factors that could possibly influence the amyloid process, thus providing a potential disease

modification technique, can be gauged from the number of posters presented at ICAD yesterday under the heading “Therapeutic

Strategies”. Of the 183 presented, almost half (85 or 46%) were specifically on amyloid-based therapies. The only other therapeutic

approach named was the neurofibrillary pathology-based mechanism (Tau protein approach), on which there were eight posters. The

remaining 90 posters came under the “other” heading, which included studies on physical exercise, canniboid use and various studies

on existing drugs for the mitigation of conditions associated with AD, among others. Will the c.1,800-seat auditorium being used to host

the “Clinical Trial” session this afternoon, where the AAB-001 data will be presented, be large enough to house all interested parties?

Only time will tell.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

By: ipar4s2
Did today's trading compromise the Amyloid Cascade Hypothesis?

PRI.

TSW.

Believe it.

Here are the real facts. ELN quote from the PII TL PR "Post-hoc analyses did show statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits in important subgroups." NOTE: "subgroups". (S) As in plural. As in more than ONE non 4E subgroup. That would imply that ELN saw statistical significance in the DIFFERENT dose groups of non 4E carriers, with a SAFETY profile as in the placebo group.

Now I'm no rocket scientist, but if we had stat-sig in escalating dosages without a safety issue, then Bapineuzumab has PROVEN it really works. And that the more you get relative to your body weight, the BETTER the efficacy, WITH NO SAFETY ISSUES!!!

TSW!!!

The drug does not know the stock price. Neither does the ACH.

Watch this baby RUN tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future!!!

One and one is two!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X16ZEDJRCL8 (wegen Chicago heute....)

Let's get this party started!!!!!!

PRI

TSW

Congrats!!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.013 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 10:38:37

Heute ist unser grosser Tag

Allerdings wohl nicht in Frankfurt, die stehen mit 8% im Minus (wenn man den Angaben hier im WO trauen kann).

Aber solange es nur unser großer Tag sein sollte, mir ists recht ... jau ... isses

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ACHTUNG---hier liegt das Geheimnis von unserem AAB verborgen

By: zendiver66
ICAD

This afternoon Dr. Ganesh Shankar gave his presentation on the amount of damage that soluable dimers inflict as apposed to the heavier deposit plaques. He did say removal of plaques can liberate more dimers. In the question and answer period this opened the door for this interchange. The questions were asked most likely by an analyst since it was very concise and deliberate unlike those ask by doctors in a bumbling manner. The rest I will paraphrase. The individual asks that in effect what he has presented meant that plaque removal can cause more damage to the patient. Dr. shankar responded by saying not unless a medication removes the plaque, the intra vacular deposit and soluable dimers all at the same time. But then the guy came back like a cross examination by asking but what if the medicine only removed the plaque wouldn't that be worse. Dr. Shankar had no choice but to answer that it could.

His first rely was all I needed to hear but this may have led the door open for some mischief before 4 pm. tomorrow. Now I fully see why a teleconference with the media is so vital. When we release the wonderment we have to hold the hands of the children so they don't get lost while they gaze around in aaawh. Sorry for the spelling.


Zenon

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7525228.stm

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.448 von Holgus am 29.07.08 11:24:41

Holgus---wie wirst Du nur mit 80 sein,wenn Du jetzt schon so´n GRIESGRAM bist------etwas mehr VISIONÄRES bitte---bald nehmen 50% der Weltbevölkerung Bapi....was meinst Du was das bedeutet???

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.453 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 11:25:04

hier liegt das Geheimnis von unserem AAB verborgen

Für mich immer noch

Was bedeutet das denn jetzt mal so konkret?

Danke

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.678 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 11:50:43

... wenn Du jetzt schon so´n GRIESGRAM bist


Iiiiiich ein Griesgram ? Pööh ... wenn Du wüßtest.
Ich bin das POSITIV schlechthin ... und 95% der Zeit immer gut gelaunt.

Aber wenns darum geht, den dicken Reibach zu machen, hatte ich bisher im Leben immer Pech ... deshalb mag ich da jetzt noch nich so richtich dran jlauben .... Schatz !!!

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.957 von Holgus am 29.07.08 12:19:03

@birgit


das sind kandidaten für einen aktieclub
(habe wieder 2 neue ehrenamtliche mitarbeiter eingetragen)
hoffe es wird zu weihnachten spätentens was werden


Aber wenns darum geht, den dicken Reibach zu machen, hatte ich bisher im Leben immer Pech ...




ehrliche menschen wo nicht behaupten immer den besten einstiegs-und ausstiegepunkt zu treffen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.604.818 von moneyseeker am 29.07.08 12:02:11

AAB001 klärt eben nicht nur die Plaquen (wie andere Medikamente die auf der Amoloyd-theorie entwickelt wurden) sondern AUCH die Unholde,genannt "soluable dimers".....genau deshalb scheint unser Medikament im Unterschied zu anderen wirksam zu sein!(only my understanding---vielleicht kann Cyberhexe das wissenschaftlich erklären...)

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.605.360 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 13:03:06

ah alles klar - jetzt weißisch Bescheid! - merci

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.605.637 von moneyseeker am 29.07.08 13:31:01

...gerne!

[Bachalor]

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.607.947 von Bachalor am 29.07.08 17:31:24

nix mehr mit



sondern



schlaft ihr

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.608.564 von Bachalor am 29.07.08 18:51:41

hi bachalor,
ich denke B und B sind am infos sammeln.

[HeinzBork]

TOP TEN Phone Messages that will be left on Kelly Martin's voicemail this evening....
From the Home Office in McCormick Place on South Lake Shore Drive, here are the TOP TEN Phone Messages that will be left on Elan CEO Kelly Martin’s voicemail this evening.

10. Hi Kelly, this is Merrill Lynch. How would you like to come back for the opportunity to turn around another beleaguered company?

9. Hey Kelly, Pamela Anderson here. Are you single?

8. Hi Mr. Martin, this is ICAD security. That Feuerstein guy is still cussing and pounding at the door something fierce….

7. Hey Kelly, Elanpissant here. Are you single?

6. Hi Kelly, this is Warner Brothers. Listen, with your movie background and dark brooding multimillionaire charisma, how would you like to be the next Batman?

5. Hi Kelly, Dick Silver here. I do feel more illuminated, but could you please have Dale explain this whole beta Amadeus hypotenuse thing to me again?

4. This is Caris. Utilizing our deep domain expertise, unparalleled industry knowledge, and alpha generation abilities, we’ve analyzed today’s promising Phase II data and decided to downgrade Elan to a $2 target. So are you scared or what?

3. Hi Kelly, Dick Silver again. Can you help illuminate my fiancé that “Deb Silver” has a much nicer ring than “Deb Knobleman?” By the way, I’m also thinking of changing my name to “Hiho”.

2. Kelly, this is Aunt Jean. Just because you’re now Mister “Big-shot” CEO of a $50 billion company doesn’t mean I won’t whoop your behind like I used to if you get uppity.

…and the Number One message that will be left on Kelly Martin’s voicemail this evening….

1. Kelly, this is Jim Mullen. How come you never call or write anymore?

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.608.679 von GuHu1 am 29.07.08 19:08:04

lebst du noch

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.607.947 von Bachalor am 29.07.08 17:31:24

ach so, thx für den chart.

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.608.693 von Bachalor am 29.07.08 19:09:53

huch, klar leb ich noch und wie

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.608.741 von GuHu1 am 29.07.08 19:15:12

icg grins mir zur zeit einen


wie sich die einzelnen user,welche privat einen BB haben
hier gegenseitig zerfleischen

und ein der profis!!!
ist heute um 21 uhr noch im ZDF zu sehen


sind alles nur abzocker
sitzen in der schweiz-östereich usw
dann baut man lieber was auf
wo jeder jeden kennen kann und soll

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Hi Jungs

Ich bin sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo gespannt....

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.609.896 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 21:37:33

hi mädel da biste 100 pro nicht alleine

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.609.950 von GuHu1 am 29.07.08 21:43:52

...das freut mich.... Kurs 34,52$....

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.609.969 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 21:46:41

Kurs 34,52$ und das freut mich

[Bachalor]

habt ihr zdf geschaut

den bock zum gärtner gemacht

und wir zahlen GEZ gebühren

[Bachalor]

jetzt machen sich einige in die hose

http://datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/JArcaBook.php?Sy…





und erdbeben in usa

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25912082



ANGUCKEN--ist von Heute

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

By: manfromjax
While we wait.. lets sing a song


Doris Day


When I was just a little ELN shareholder,
I asked Mr KM, 'What will I be?
Will I be pretty?
Will I be rich?
Here's what he said to me:

Que Sera Sera,
what ever will be, will be;
The future`s not ours to see.
Que Sera Sera,
What will be, will be

When I grew up and fell in love with ELN
I asked my sweetheart ELN, what lies ahead,
will we have rainbows
day after day?
Here´s what my sweetheart said:

que sera, sera,
whatever wil be, will be
the future's not ours to see.
que sera, sera,
what will be; will be

Now I have more shares of ELN of my own
they ask their owner what will they be
will I be handsome?
will i be rich?
I tell them tenderly

que sera, sera,
whatever will be, will be;
the future's not ours to see.
que sera, sera,
what will be, will be.

Que sera, sera

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.441 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 22:38:49

ich krieg aber nur ein zittriges tröten über die lippen.
nervös? jaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.510 von GuHu1 am 29.07.08 22:50:45

was hilft:Wein + tortilla chips....

[bernie55]

...nervös....nö...nö..nö...nöööööööönnnnnöööö..

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.563 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 22:58:07

..oder ein Bierchen.....sitze aber auf dem Trockenen....

[bernie55]

29 July 2008

Elan and Wyeth Present Encouraging Results from Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Bapineuzumab at International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease
Overall Assessment:

-- Safety and efficacy results support design of ongoing global
Phase 3 program

-- Vasogenic edema correlated with dose and ApoE4 carrier status
which influenced the Phase 3 program design

-- Pre-specified efficacy analysis did not reach significance in
the total population

In Post Hoc Analyses:

-- Trends were observed in the cognitive endpoints ADAS-cog and
NTB in the total population

-- Statistically significant and clinically meaningful effects
were observed in multiple endpoints in ApoE4 non-carriers

-- In ApoE4 carriers, favorable directional changes were seen in
some endpoints, warranting further study
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 29, 2008--Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN) and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) today are presenting detailed results from the companies' 18-month Phase 2 study of bapineuzumab (AAB-001) in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease at the Alzheimer's Association's International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease 2008 in Chicago, Illinois. As previously announced, in the study, bapineuzumab appeared to have an acceptable safety profile and clinical activity in treating Alzheimer's disease. Potential efficacy signals were seen at a range of doses without a clear dose response. The study did not attain statistical significance on the pre-specified efficacy endpoints in the overall study population. Post-hoc analyses showed statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits in important subgroups.

The data will be presented by Sid Gilman, M.D., William J. Herdman Distinguished University Professor of Neurology, Director of Michigan Alzheimer's Disease Research Center, University of Michigan, and Chair of the independent safety monitoring committee for bapineuzumab.

"This study was limited in its size, design and goals," said Dr. Gilman, "but if the findings seen in these post-hoc analyses are replicated in the global Phase 3 program, it would be a validation of the amyloid hypothesis and could change how physicians approach the treatment of Alzheimer's disease."

Elan and Wyeth believe that the safety and efficacy findings from this Phase 2 trial of bapineuzumab in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease support the design of the ongoing global Phase 3 program and plan to incorporate learnings from this study into the Phase 3 program. The companies will continue to work diligently to develop much needed new treatment options for patients and physicians.

About the Phase 2 Clinical Trial

The double-blind, placebo-controlled multiple ascending dose trial was designed to assess the safety and tolerability of bapineuzumab in mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease and to explore efficacy at a range of doses. Two-hundred-thirty-four (234) patients were randomized(1) to receive one of four doses of bapineuzumab (0.15 mg/kg (n=31), 0.5 mg/kg (n=33), 1.0 mg/kg (n=30) or 2.0 mg/kg (n=30)) or placebo (n=110) by intravenous infusion every 13 weeks. Findings were reported for 229 patients in a modified intent-to-treat (MITT) analysis. Patients were intended to receive up to six doses during the 18-month study.

The pre-specified primary efficacy endpoints were change from baseline in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog) and Disability Assessment Scale for Dementia (DAD) in the 0.5 mg/kg, 1.0 mg/kg and 2.0 mg/kg dose groups against their placebo cohorts. Other efficacy measures included change in concentrations of tau in cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), the Neuropsychological Test Battery (NTB), the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SOB), the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and brain volume as measured by MRI. Efficacy was assessed from baseline for 78 weeks.

Pre-Specified Efficacy Analysis:

In the total study population, statistical significance was not obtained on the pre-specified efficacy endpoints of ADAS-cog and DAD.

Post-Hoc Efficacy Analyses:

Modified Intent to Treat (MITT) included patients who received at least one infusion and one efficacy assessment. In analyzing the data, the following were taken into account: an assumption of non linearity of the data over time, ApoE4 carrier status, and baseline MMSE and test scores.

The clinical relevance of the results for patients receiving the full 18 months of therapy was analyzed in a completer analysis. The patients included in the completer analysis received six (6) infusions and a week 78 efficacy assessment.

Using these assumptions, trends in favor of bapineuzumab treated patients were observed in ADAS-cog and NTB in the total MITT population. Additional completer analyses reinforced these trends.

The study revealed important differences in the rate of vasogenic edema by carrier status and for this reason the total population was analyzed by ApoE4 carrier status(2).

ApoE4 Non-Carrier Population

In the ApoE4 non-carrier patients, statistically significant differences from baseline to week 78 were observed in favor of bapineuzumab treated patients on both cognitive and functional efficacy endpoints:

-- ADAS-cog treatment difference of 5.0; p=0.026

-- NTB treatment difference of 0.35; p=0.006

-- CDR-SB treatment difference of 1.5; p=0.040
A favorable directional change of 6.9, p>0.10 for DAD was observed.

The completer analysis for non-carrier patients was consistent with the above findings.

Additionally, in these non-carrier patients, MRI results showed significantly less brain volume reduction versus placebo, as measured by the Brain Boundary Shift Integral (BBSI), at 71 weeks(3), with a treatment difference of 10.7 cc; p=0.004. Smaller increases in ventricular volume (VBSI) in bapineuzumab treated patients compared to placebo were observed, which were not statistically significant. Progression of Alzheimer's disease is generally associated with loss in brain volume and increases in ventricular volume.

ApoE4 Carrier Population

In the ApoE4 carrier patients, no statistically significant changes were observed in any of the cognitive or functional efficacy endpoints. The completer analysis for the carrier population showed favorable directional changes on cognitive and functional endpoints. The ongoing Phase 3 studies in ApoE4 carriers will help clarify these findings.

MRI findings in the carrier patients showed no significant change in brain volume between bapineuzumab treated and placebo patients, while a significant increase in ventricular volume in treated patients was observed, mean 2.5cc; p=0.037. The clinical relevance of this finding is still unclear and will continue to be evaluated.

"The clinically significant benefit seen with bapineuzumab treatment in the ApoE4 non-carrier subgroup is encouraging," said Dale Schenk, Ph.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Scientific Officer of Elan. "These results across multiple endpoints are consistent with what we have seen for beta amyloid immunotherapy from animal studies through to the patients."

"These data represent scientific validation of our decision to move rapidly into Phase 3 last year," said Gary L. Stiles, M.D., Chief Medical Officer, Wyeth. "In our Phase 3 program, we will learn much more since we will be able to study bapineuzumab in larger patient populations and better assess the results in ApoE4 carriers and non-carriers in separate trials. We are encouraged by these results and we'll achieve greater insight as we move forward."

Safety Findings

Adverse Events (AE) were observed in 95% of bapineuzumab treated patients versus 90% of placebo treated patients. AEs were generally mild to moderate and transient. With the exception of vasogenic edema, AEs did not appear to be dose related.

Adverse events seen in greater than 5% of bapineuzumab treated patients and at twice the rate of placebo treated patients were: back pain; anxiety; vomiting; vasogenic edema; hypertension; weight loss; paranoia; skin laceration; gait disturbance; and muscle spasm.

Three deaths occurred in bapineuzumab-treated patients, though these were not considered by the investigators to be treatment related. No deaths were reported in the placebo group. Other adverse events of interest occurring in less than five percent of patients treated with bapineuzumab included cataract, deep vein thrombosis, syncope, seizures and pulmonary embolism.

Vasogenic Edema (VE)

Twelve (12) cases of vasogenic edema were reported, all in treated patients, and all resolved over time. Ten (10) of these cases were reported in ApoE4 carriers with 2 cases in ApoE4 non-carriers. Eight (8) of the 12 cases were reported in the highest dose group, including both cases seen in ApoE4 non-carriers. Six (6) of the 12 cases were not associated with clinical symptoms and were detected on routine MRI scan. One (1) patient was treated with steroids. Re-dosing was instituted in six (6) of the 12 patients and no recurrence of VE was observed.

Phase 3 Program Implications

The Phase 2 data reinforce the design of the ongoing Phase 3 studies by ApoE4 carrier and non-carrier populations and the selected dose groups. The companies plan to continue all four ongoing Phase 3 studies. The ApoE4 carrier dose in the Phase 3 trials was selected to seek to minimize the risk of VE observed in the Phase 2 trial. The companies intend to obtain feedback from regulatory authorities in the coming months to finalize parameters for the Phase 3 program and discuss and reach agreement on requirements for registration.

Investor Webcast

The Companies will host a webcast on July 29, 2008 from 6:00pm CDT (7:00pm EDT) to discuss the results of the Phase 2 clinical trial.

Participants who will discuss the trial results and field questions will include:

-- Ron Black, M.D., Wyeth Research, Assistant Vice President,
Neuroscience

-- Sid Gilman, M.D., F.R.C.P., University of Michigan, Chair of
Bapineuzumab Safety Monitoring Committee

-- Allison Hulme, Ph.D., Elan, Executive Vice President and Head
of Global Development

-- Dale Schenk, Ph.D., Elan, Executive Vice President and Chief
Scientific Officer

-- Gary L. Stiles, M.D., Wyeth, Chief Medical Officer
Live audio of the webcast will be simultaneously broadcast over the Internet. The webcast can be accessed by visiting the companies' web sites at www.elan.com or www.wyeth.com and clicking on the "Investor Relations" icon. Following the live webcast, an archived version, including the slides, will be available at the same URLs.

About Bapineuzumab

Bapineuzumab is the first humanized monoclonal antibody in late-stage investigation as a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease. Bapineuzumab is designed to clear toxic beta amyloid from the brain. The beta amyloid protein is a key component of the neuritic plaques that are implicated in the pathology of Alzheimer's disease. A global, 4,100 patient Phase 3 clinical program was initiated in December 2007 and is intended to provide safety and efficacy data to support the filing and approval of licensing applications for bapineuzumab as a potential treatment for patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. To learn more about this enrollment, patients or caregivers should contact clinical sites directly. Participating clinical sites can be found by visiting www.icarastudy.com or, in the United States by calling 1 (888) 818-MEMORY. Study site details also can be found by visiting www.clinicaltrials.gov.

About Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease is a progressive brain disorder that gradually destroys a person's memory and ability to learn, reason, make judgments, communicate and carry out daily activities, such as bathing and eating. As Alzheimer's disease progresses, individuals may also experience changes in personality and behavior, such as anxiety, suspiciousness or agitation, as well as delusions or hallucinations. As many as 5 million Americans are estimated to have Alzheimer's disease, and more than 26 million people worldwide. One in eight baby boomers, and half of all people over 85, will develop the disease.

About the Elan and Wyeth Collaboration

The Wyeth and Elan Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Program (AIP) includes investigational clinical programs for bapineuzumab. AIP is a collaboration between the two companies to research, develop and commercialize immunotherapeutic approaches that may be used to treat and possibly prevent the onset of Alzheimer's disease. AIP research focuses on the beta amyloid hypothesis, as the companies believe that enhancing the clearance of beta amyloid in the brain may provide a new treatment approach for Alzheimer's disease.

About Elan

Elan Corporation, plc is a neuroscience-based biotechnology company committed to making a difference in the lives of patients and their families by dedicating itself to bringing innovations in science to fill significant unmet medical needs that continue to exist around the world. Elan shares trade on the New York, London and Dublin Stock Exchanges. For additional information about the company, please visit http://www.elan.com.

About Wyeth

Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth, has leading products in the areas of women's health care, infectious disease, gastrointestinal health, central nervous system, inflammation, transplantation, hemophilia, oncology, vaccines and nutritional products.

Wyeth is one of the world's largest research-driven pharmaceutical and health care products companies. It is a leader in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceuticals, vaccines, biotechnology products, nutritionals and non-prescription medicines that improve the quality of life for people worldwide. The Company's major divisions include Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, Wyeth Consumer Healthcare and Fort Dodge Animal Health. For additional information about the company, please visit http://www.wyeth.com.

Safe Harbor/Forward-Looking Statements

The statements in this press release and on the related webcast regarding the companies' assessment of the Phase 2 data and its implications for the Phase 3 program and future development of bapineuzumab are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. In particular, these statements are subject to the risk that further analyses of the Phase 2 data may lead to different (including less favorable) interpretations of the data than the analyses conducted to date and/or may identify important implications of the Phase 2 data that are not reflected in these statements. Clinical trial data are subject to differing interpretations, and regulatory agencies, medical and scientific experts and others may not share the companies' views of the Phase 2 data or its implications for the Phase 3 program and future development of bapineuzumab. In addition, further analyses of the Phase 2 data and discussion with regulatory authorities may lead to important modifications to the Phase 3 program. There can be no assurance that the clinical program for bapineuzumab will be successful in demonstrating safety and/or efficacy, that we will not encounter problems or delays in clinical development, or that bapineuzumab will ever receive regulatory approval or be successfully commercialized. Other risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements include those detailed from time to time in the Companies' periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Wyeth's current reports on Form 8-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and annual report on Form 10-K, particularly the discussion under the caption "Item 1A, Risk Factors" in Wyeth's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 29, 2008, and Elan's Reports of Foreign Issuer on Form 6-K and Annual Report on Form 20-F, particularly the discussion under the caption "Item 3D, Risk Factors" in Elan's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 28, 2008. The forward-looking statements in this press release are qualified by these risk factors. We assume no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

(1) Randomization was on an 8:7 ratio, with more patients receiving bapineuzumab versus placebo.

(2) Literature estimates that 40-70 percent of Alzheimer's disease population are non-carriers of the Apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) allele

(3) MRI results were measured through week 71


http://www.elan.com/news/full.asp?ID=1180940

[Bachalor]

berni,birgit

e-mail


schreibt ihr bitte was zum CC dann

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.664 von Bachalor am 29.07.08 23:12:46

..habe aktuell keine Live´Schaltung.....

..Kurs 27,90 USD !!!!!

[GuHu1]

eines steht man fest, after hour gibts scheinbar reichlich auf die mütze! um die $ 28.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.727 von bernie55 am 29.07.08 23:23:26

....hast Du cyberhexe angetickert?

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.754 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 29.07.08 23:29:39

..cybie ist online !!!!

[bernie55]

..müssen abwarten, was Dale Schenk und Co. sagen....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.759 von bernie55 am 29.07.08 23:30:45

..sorry..

..cybie ist offline !!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 259390 7/29/2008 5:30:03 PM
By: nangasimon

Re: bap results summary

the data were as some had predicted that there was evidence of positive cognitive effects in the apoe4 that were confounded by ve events in the intention to treat analysis. The evidence for efficacy and the strength of effect in non-carriers was very strong. If you dont include the dropouts the study was significant overall for cognitive and functional enpoints. Most importantly efficacy was great there is really no reason for the stock to drop this was as good as it could have been given what we knew about the headline data. Nothing else works in this disease and bap clearly does.

[bernie55]

amazing that people sold ELN off so quickly

- didn't they read the PR of course the Reuters article was thin and pretty much of a smear job considering that the vasogenic edema was seen but the severity was not a problem especially in the non-ApoE carrier group

I think that the data is pretty much as described and considering the small groupings it is impressive that efficacy was in multiple measurements

panic mentality set in - I would guess that those people will be unhappy that they sold

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.785 von bernie55 am 29.07.08 23:37:34

http://www1.investorvillage.com/iv1/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=25941…

[bernie55]

..muss morgen früh raus....

..halte die Stellung, Birgit....

Grüße bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=807265588&play=1------… werden sehr positiv bewertet!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.880 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 00:02:30

Ich verstehe die after-hours Reaktion nicht!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Das ist der Reuters Artikel,der wohl für den Kursrutsch verantwortlich ist + schon VOR der Veröffentlichung der Ergebnisse fertig geschrieben war....





Side effects mar Elan and Wyeth Alzheimer's trial
Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:02pm EDT

By Julie Steenhuysen

CHICAGO (Reuters)- Keenly awaited details on Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Wyeth's (WYE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) new Alzheimer's drug bapineuzumab show it raised the risk of a potentially serious side effect, especially in people with a genetic risk of the disease, the companies said on Tuesday.

They said 12 people with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's, who were treated with the drug, developed a build-up of fluid in the brain called vasogenic edema.

Ten of those cases were in people who have the ApoE4 gene, which significantly raises their risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. The other two were in non-carriers of the gene.

"Usually this occurred after the first or second dose," Dr Ronald Black, assistant vice president in neuroscience research at Wyeth, said in an interview. "About half of them had no symptoms at all, and about a third had minor symptoms."

Black said the side effect appeared to be "strongly related" to the dose of the drug people took. "The higher doses get more," he said.

None of those who received a placebo developed the brain-swelling condition. All those who suffered the side effect recovered from it, Black said.

The update on the antibody medicine, also known as AAB-001, has been closely watched by investors. If proven to work, the drug could be the first to modify the course of Alzheimer's disease, rather than just offering symptom relief.

Some analysts have forecast eventual annual sales of $13 billion (6.56 billion pounds).

Details of the study, presented at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease in Chicago, help fill out the picture on the drug, which aims to fight deposits called beta amyloid plaques linked to the degenerative brain condition.

GENETIC DIFFERENCES

Preliminary findings released last month showed the drug failed to boost memory and functionality in most of 234 patients over 18 months.

Carriers of ApoE4, 60 percent of those who got the drug and 70 percent who got the placebo, did not show any improvement in their ability to think or function.

But in the non-carriers of ApoE4, the companies did find a statistically significant improvement in these measures.

"You can't conclude anything about the efficacy of the drug from this trial," said Dr Ronald Petersen of the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, who was briefed on the results.

"It's a secondary analysis. You have to go with what they pre-specified and what their endpoints were, and they didn't make those," said Petersen, incoming chairman of the Alzheimer's Association's scientific board and chairman of a safety monitoring board for a therapeutic vaccine Wyeth and Elan are working on for Alzheimer's.

The companies decided to conduct larger studies aimed at proving bapineuzumab worked in ApoE4 non-carriers, who make up about half of all Alzheimer's patients.

Black said the big difference in vasogenic edema between ApoE4 carriers and non-carriers prompted the companies to analyze the groups separately.

In the phase 3 study, the companies plan to give higher doses of the drug to people who do not carry the ApoE4 gene, and a single low dose to the ApoE4 carriers.

The companies plan to meet with regulators about the final design of the four late-stage clinical trials, which will involve 4,100 patients, Black said.

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.610.964 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 00:36:34

ist doch immer so
alles hat was ganz neues und sehr wichtiges erwartet

morgen geht es sicher wieder über 30


es könnte sein,dass ich nächste woche vieleicht mal zum essen komme


muss nach hannover und ins ruhrgebiet anwälte und steuerexperte besuchen

du weisst ja,ich bastele an einem weihnachtsgeschenk

obwohl ich an solchen abenden wie heute manchmal die lust verliere

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 260117 7/29/2008 8:31:56 PM
By: stop_farking_with_me

Way overdone, tomorrow

1) shorts will be covering (ELN is trading at a discount to its Tysabri business);

2) institutions that have been eyeing ELN have a new, cheap entry point-they will be buying;

3) the P2 results were very good. How many companies would give their right arm for a blockbuster (defined as 1 billion in revenues)? Bap will be atleast several times that;

4) once again, THIS VALIDATES Elan's approach. It's pipeline is worth more than it was a few hours ago;

5) the dopey analysts that were citing the adverse events just don't get it. These people are old and sick! Bap showed very good safety, and I think just like Tysabri, many of these analysts just don't understand what a drug like this means for those that suffer from ALZ.

WS orchestrated a gang hit on ELN/WYE. LIke Don Corleone, ELN has been wounded, but the hit wasn't successful. It will be back.

At this point, I'm not even sure you are going to see ELN go down more than it has because of potential margin calls. I think there will be many waiting to buy within the 22-28 range.

Have faith folks.

[moneyseeker]

ipollit im Nachbarthread führt aus, daß die Ergebnisse fas ein völliger Fehlschlag sind.

Meinungen?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.127 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 06:00:12

Ich versteh jetzt rein gar nichts mehr.
Wie kann man solch ein Event so aufblähen und dann solch ein Blutbad hinterlassen ? Es ist nicht zu fassen.

Was sind in der letzten Zeit in den Messageboards nicht alles für Schlagworte gebraucht worden ... "das größte Medikament aller Zeiten" und so weiter. Und nun ?

Puffff ... löst sich alles in Luft auf und ich steh wieder mit einem riesen Minus da. Scheiß auf Investorvillage ... alles nur Gepumpe und somit Verschwendung von Zeit.

Nenn mich noch mal einer "Pessimist" ... dann flip ich aus

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.160 von Holgus am 30.07.08 06:56:20

Guten Morgen.....nicht ironisch gemeint...

...lag aktuell über 300 %......jetzt leider nicht mehr...

...erst mal durchpusten , die ganze Sachlage checken und Infos bei den Superexperten einholen.....

[surga]

Sehr merkwurdig alles
CNBC Video

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=807265588&__sou…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.127 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 06:00:12

Er ist ein.....;Ergebnisse sind OK--genau wie die Headlines---Gemisch von Presse,Hedgies,nichts Spektakuläres...etc....

BIN AUCH GESCHOCKT + habe nicht geschlafen---PANIK ist jetzt die blödeste Reaktion---lasst uns recherchieren und abwarten,was Kelly Martin um 15.40h bei CNBC sagt.....Es tut mir für uns ALLE sehr leid---aber es kann nach wie vor auch noch Alles klappen....GRÜSSE!Birgit

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.384 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 08:24:32

15.40h - Nach welcher Zeit?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.401 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 08:28:11

nach unserer Zeit!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Dies ist die Kritik an den Ergebnissen von Jemandem der Short ist


Interested in other scientist comments that didn't sell Elan short?
Elan -- Report from ICAD presentation --

First let me say I am saddened for everyone suffering from Alzheimer's and everyone with relatives with this terrible disease. I am certain that there will be a cure someday.

I just got back home to St. Louis from Chicago for the International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease (ICAD) where Elan presented the data in more detail. In short, it was as bad as anyone could reasonably have expected. It's late, so I'll stick to bullet points:

First, the good:
-In a retrospectively defined, very small subset of the study, there was very significant improvement on the ADAS-cog, of 7 points. (For comparison, other drugs have been approved with a 2 point improvement).
-The safety concerns seem overblown. There were extensive side effects, things like back pain, anxiety, vomiting, etc. which are unpleasant but would be an easy tradeoff if Bap stopped AD. One slightly bigger concern is vasogenic edema (essentially, brain swelling caused by a partial breakdown of the blood-brain barrier). This was seen in 5% of patients, only 2% were symptomatic, and all of them recovered fully.

And the bad:
As a scientist, I am familiar with all manner of techniques to finesse the presentation of data to make it look better than it is. Elan used just about every one of them. In fact, it's hard to give an exact critique of the presenation, because THEY HID THE RAW DATA. I can't imagine why they would do this if the data were good.

Here's an example. In AD drug trials, the standard way of presenting results is to show the score on a cognitive test at each timepoint for both drug and placebo conditions. That way you can see that the placebo group is declining over time, and the drug group is hopefully staying constant or declining more slowly. You can also see how noisy the data are by how much the average jumps around from timepoint to timepoint. Elan hid all of this. They compressed all of this useful data into a single number, the difference between drug and placebo from baseline to endpoint. Thus, you can't tell how noisy the data were (they also neglected to add error bars). You also can't tell if the difference is due to the drug, or due to an unusually quick decline in the placebo group. In fact, they very quickly showed a slide with the standard presentation method (it was on the screen less than 30 seconds, with 3 other graphs along with it). This actually indicated that the placebo group declined very very severely, and the drug group declined at about the rate you'd expect for an untreated group. One of the moderators pointed this out in the Q&A session afterwards.

I can go into more detail if there's interest, but here are the other big points.
-No dose-response curve. Ordinarily, the higher the dose, the bigger the response. Not so here. Reversed if anything.
-The 7-point improvement was in a very small subsample. They wouldn't actually say how small, but less than 70 subjects (vs. 400 for the entire study).
-No mention at all of whether the drug actually changed beta-amyloid levels.
-After seeing the data, they abandoned their original statistical model (which was perfectly good for every other study out there) and created a new one ad hoc.

Talking to other scientists there, everyone was pretty baffled and assumed that the raw data were terrible.

As far as valuation, I think there's maybe a 15% chance that this drug passes Phase III. Pulling out my DCF analysis from earlier, that would put fair value market cap at around $8-9 billion, or a little under $20 per share. I'm seeing an after-hours quote at 22.84, and if it opens there, I'll probably cover my short position.

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.527.202 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.07.08 11:00:58

Dass wir es mit krimenellen Kursmanipulierern zu tun haben, habe ich in meiner Post #20079 versucht anzudeuten. Bereits am 17.07.08 habe ich von einem sell off in Richtung $ 24 gesprochen. Ein Gap, der noch geschlossen werden muss, meinte ich erkannt zu haben. Da ich selber blöd bin, beweist, dass ich zwischenzeitlich nicht verkauft habe und mich von der Euphorie hier habe einlullen lassen. Jetzt kann jeder selber entscheiden, ob er/sie "billig" nachkauft word oder nicht.

Habe ich irgendetwas falsch verstanden? Geändert hat sich seit der letzten/ersten Meldung nichts. "Drei seien gestorben", liest sich wie in der Bild Zeitung. Ein kausaler Zusammenhang lässt sich nicht herleiten. Die Entwicklung wird nicht abgebrochen. Was ist mit Phase III?. Dauert länger, wie gewohnt. Die Pille für das ewige Leben hat Gott sei dank bislang keiner entwickelt, sonst müsste ich mir diese Wallstreetverarschung wohl noch länger reinziehen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

und hier die mutmachende Position von Einem der long ist


Author: turbopkus
send pm · add member to favs · ignore · recommend


Recs: 110
My thoughts
Interesting data, only comment on the pps is that AH anything is possible.
Several years ago I bought Qualcom AH when it had dropped $5 after hours in panic selling.
It went up $45 the next day.

Disclosure - I got my PhD in toxicology (neurotoxicology) and work on drug delivery for a small private company in R&D not as a practicing toxicologist (paper pushing is boring!)

It struck me that the data was ILLUMINATING.

First the adverse effects, the vascular edema effects described were minor when you realize that they could be redosed at a lower dose and half of them were. Second, if you think of this as dose-limiting toxicity, they clearly define the upper limit for dosing. I would expect far fewer cases of VE in the P3 study since the highest dose has been eliminated for all treatment arms as well as the 1 mg dose in the Apo4e carriers.

Lower doses were effective. Again, lower doses were effective. This is great for lowering the cost of goods.

Larger significance was observed with longer treatment times. This is not a short term disease, and earlier and longer treatment should be desirable.

Several of the analysts commented about the decline in MMSE in the Placebo group. However, entry into the P2 allowed for scores of 16-26, with the average score in the 19 to 21 range. It is a wide range and this should mean that 30-50% would be classified as moderate

Much of this information was learned in this study, and it is incorporated in the P3.

Is there a chance for early subpart e filing? They have shown statistically significant increases in several of the key measurement parameters for disease progression. They have also shown that the understand dose effects of the key adverse effects (VE) and have eliminated those dosages from the P3. How much safety data is required befor filing a subpart E? Listen to KM in the morning.

Turbo

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.384 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 08:24:32

Ja Birgit, das müssen wir wohl machen mit dem Abwarten, bleibt uns auch kaum was anders übrig.

Ich kann es einfach nich glauben, daß Kelly so einen Stuss wie "Spektakulär" oder auch "Illumination" von sich gibt ... und dann solche Ergebnisse präsentiert, die den Kurs sowas von in den Keller jagen ... ne ... dat will ich auch nicht glauben.

Also ... Daumen drücken und hoffen, dass zumindest eine Erholung des Kurses stattfindet ... würde mir schon reichen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.574 von Holgus am 30.07.08 08:52:09

ehrlich--ich glaube dass die Ergebnisse solide sind--aber wir wissen ja wie Elan behandelt wird--wenn sie die PH 3 erfolgreich managen,ist der heutige Tag eh egal.....aber ich bin schon geschockt von der Reaktion....(long + strong trotzdem natürlich...!!)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.617 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 08:56:23

In Deutschland wird schon mal nicht verkauft.....-das ist gut!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...naja-2050 Stück hat nun doch jmd geworfen...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.700 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 09:08:04

Kurs liegt in FFM bei €15,60 (bezahlt)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.700 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 09:08:04

bisher 2.050 Stück gehandelt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.724 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 09:09:46

Du hast BM

[Holgus]

Wie bei IV so oft und schön zu lesen war ...

Der Tag, auf den alle Elanians soviele Jahre gewartet haben ...

oder ...

Der Tag, an dem die Welt eine andere sein wird.


Das ist die Welt tatsächlich ... nämlich ernüchtert (kann mich mal jemand zwicken, ich glaube, ich träume irgendwie)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.902 von Holgus am 30.07.08 09:28:41

..ich hatte das Gefühl heute Nacht auch--irgendwie alptraummässig--jetzt bin ich nur totmüde + muss ins Büro....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/88/883/88326/items/3…-----die Folien der Präsentation heute Nacht!

[ipollit]

#20397 zeigt recht gut die Probleme auf... warum müsst ihr das gleich als reine Short-Attacke werten statt euch mal ernsthaft damit auseinander zu setzen? Im Gegenteil bringen die meisten longs überhaupt gar keine Argumente vor. Mit reinem Wunschdenken kann man vielleicht kurz und mittelfristig gute Gewinne einstreichen, besonders wenn die Anleger so hysterisch sind wie die ELN-Longs... man erhält aber sicherlich keine Zulassung und damit ist es auf lange Sicht riskant.

Grundsätzlich sollte nichts aufgrund einer retrospektiven data mining Analyse setzen, so wie die PII jetzt bei BAP. Ein ähnliches Beispiel ist Provenge von DNDN. DNDN wird ebenfalls crashen... da bin ich mir recht sicher (ich shorte allerdings grundsätzlich keine Aktien).

mfg ipollit

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.612.505 von ipollit am 30.07.08 10:30:05

und könntest Du vielleicht ne realistische Kursprognose abgeben?

[ipollit]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.612.698 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 10:49:04

ich würde BAP komplett rausrechnen. Wieviel Phantasie durch BAP im Kurs enthalten war, weiß ich nicht. Hier müssten einige besser Bescheid wissen, wieviel Elan ohne BAP wert ist.

Allerdings sind die Elan-Longs sehr überzeugt von sich, weshalb sie den Kurs wahrscheinlich weiter in irrationalen Höhen halten werden, bis BAP entgültig beerdigt wird.

mfg ipollit

[posimist]

"Hysterisch",
mit diesem Wort hat sich ippolit disqualifiziert.

Jeder der longies hier ist sich des Risikos bei der Medikamentenentwicklung im Bereich Biotechnologie, hier bei Elan/Wyeth bewußt.
Klar, die Erwartungen sind mit dem frühzeitigen Beginn der Phase3 in Sachen Alzheimer gestiegen.
Also werde ich in Ruhe den heutigen Nachmittag abwarten.
posimist

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.611.574 von Holgus am 30.07.08 08:52:09

Ich kann es einfach nich glauben, daß Kelly so einen Stuss wie "Spektakulär" oder auch "Illumination" von sich gibt ... und dann solche Ergebnisse präsentiert, die den Kurs sowas von in den Keller jagen ... ne ... dat will ich auch nicht glauben


..da kann ich dir nur beipflichten, Holger......habe wirklich mehr " Spektakuläres " und " Erleuchtendes " erwartet......

..die " kritschen " Statements sind von jetzt an noch genauer zu lesen....

..so, ich muss wieder heute arbeiten...und das an einem solchen Tag.....

Was kam eigentlich bei der Webcastübertragung mit Schenk und Co. heraus ????
Wie haben denn die Experten von Elan und Wyeth auf kritsche Fragen geantwortet ???

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.612.505 von ipollit am 30.07.08 10:30:05

... warum müsst ihr das gleich als reine Short-Attacke werten statt euch mal ernsthaft damit auseinander zu setzen?

....so wie gestern Positionen auf und abgebaut wurden, liegt die Vermutung sehr nahe...Kurssprünge von einem US Dollar innerhalb von 10 Sekunden waren teilweise zu beobachten...


#20397 zeigt recht gut die Probleme auf

..muss ich mir in Ruhe durchlesen....


Mit reinem Wunschdenken kann man vielleicht kurz und mittelfristig gute Gewinne einstreichen

..nicht nur mit reinem Wuschdenken...



besonders wenn die Anleger so hysterisch sind wie die ELN-Longs

..vielleicht wäre " euphorisch " die bessere Definition...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.612.907 von bernie55 am 30.07.08 11:08:48

natürlich ist keiner von uns über die Kurseinbrüche begeistert (außer den Shorties).

Ein so "verhaltenes" Ergebnis bei der Phase II Studie habe ich nicht erwartet, da die Andeutungen von Seiten ELANs ja eher positiv zu werten waren. Auf jeden Fall habe ich dieses so interpretiert.

In Summe bin ich noch gut im Plus, aber ein solches Minus sieht auch in meinem Depot nicht gerade schön aus.

Momentan befinden wir uns wieder auf dem Kursniveau von März 2008.

Ich bleibe investiert, werde aber nicht weiter nachkaufen, da ich mit über 80% von meinem Depot in ELAN stecken habe.

Das Zeitfenster ist nach wie vor Ende 2010 (so in etwa).

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Author: peadar_og

Elan
I haven’t had time to read a pos, but I've had a quick glance at the data. It’s not the home run we were hoping for, at least judging by the reaction – or at least how it is presented.

The thing to keep in mind is that the majority of sufferers are non-carriers, and if you looked at the lowest dose to this group in isolation, you would be very happy. The side effect profile is good and the efficacy is best. This dose also seems to be well tolerated in carriers.

Now if Elan had gone with the lowest dose only to non-carriers in p3, this stock would be exploding upwards. A massive untouched market for a product that works well safely.

There also seems to be a time element involved before you see the efficacy, and so there is also a strong case for the lower dose to carriers. There is also huge potential for better efficacy overtime.

I get the feeling they’ve seen some signal they want to follow through on, and thus the continuation of the higher dose, and not necessarily just for AD. An interesting gamble with sharks circling the waters. Those in the know will see the potential here.


“Within the non-carrier group, the 0.5mg/kg dose showed the largest
improvement (versus placebo) across all four efficacy scales. The cognitive measures similar pattern to emerge for the functional measures was later, occurring after 1 year.
MRI results for non-carriers showed significantly less brain volume reduction versus
placebo (at 71 weeks), w”

[Poppholz]

London und Irland stehen bei €15,40

Wir müssen aber wohl warten bis die USA die Pforten öffnen, um zu sehen was passiert.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.613.114 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 11:31:03

....kann heute leider nur ab und zu hier reinschauen.....

...gleich wieder eine Runde " worken "....

....investiert bleiben...ja oder nein ????

...TIME WILL TELL...

..werde auf jeden Fall erst mal schauen und warten .....Infos abchecken.....

Grüße, auf die Schnelle
bernie55

PS: ..auch noch dick im Plus...hatte aber mit Plusplus nach der CC gerechnet.....eben more illuminated ....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.613.663 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 12:32:14

London und Irland stehen bei €15,40

Wir müssen aber wohl warten bis die USA die Pforten öffnen, um zu sehen was passiert.


..ich lach mich tot, wenn der Kurs nach der CNBC Session heute wieder richtig anspringt....naja.....totlachen...mmmhh.....nööö........ich würde mich freuen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Wir müssen uns entspannen......

Author: okz45

This may take longer for the market to understand than many of us thought
This is not new in subjective analysis.

Looking at the reality of the situation, if you are a long term investor, nothing is different then it was.

Elan/Wyeth went to PIII with the blessings of the FDA a full year earlier than was expected. The Corporations committed to a 4000 patient 18 mos. trial at an expected cost in excess of $300M
The PIII trials are based on what was learned in PII. The difference between APOE cariers and non-carriers is know to everyone at this point and has been.The only question that appears to be unanswered at this point is the dosage requirement between carriers and non-carriers. The safety profile appears to be livable.

The fact that the Market is concentrating on side effects primarily is discouraging, however, it comes with the territory. The brain swelling was noted early in PII and corrected by changing the dosage and had no lasting effects. It would appear the same is the case with the edema. The three deaths is a total joke, unless you believe that death can be averted in any case.

Where does that leave us. Right where we were before the release of the full data yesterday. Looking for the pathway for approval of BAP. There is still a strong possibility for early filing for the non-carriers and I would not discount that very real possibility.

my opinion

PS
Patience my friends

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.613.760 von bernie55 am 30.07.08 12:40:28

ich bleib dabei
was ich gestern abend schrieb

elan heute wieder über 30$


nur die meinung von einem
der keine ahnung hat

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.613.873 von Bachalor am 30.07.08 12:53:24

nur die meinung von einem
der keine ahnung hat


....willkommen an Bord der ELANIACS......

Grüße
bernie55

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.614.007 von bernie55 am 30.07.08 13:07:41

ich beobachte mit argusaugen was sich vorbörslich bewegt




http://datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/JArcaBook.php?Sy…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Author: Creedster_99

ICAD observations
1. Expectations were too high
2. The data was very good among the non ApoE4 carriers...in fact, simply amazing!
3. The side effects were very acceptable, given the nature of the disease
4. Vasogenic edema was NOT clinically relevant in 11/12 pts and in the 12th improved with time and steroids..BFD
5. The 3 deaths were NOT related to Bap. This was explained nicely during the presentation and afterwards in the Q&A session...One had a dissecting aortic aneurysm and heart attack...one fell down some stairs...the last had a bad urinary tract infection and died of Alzheimer's related illness....
6. The purpose of a Phase II trial is to seek information broadly about a new drug. This was a successful PII trial!!!!!
7. The information gathered here was sufficient to figure out how to power a successful PIII trial...done and started 8 mos ago!!!!
8. The retention in this trial was amazing...and mentioned by another presenter..."How did you guys do it? he asked
9. For those who want to say that they didn't acheive a response in the most widely used assessment (ADAS-COG), the improvement in the ApoE4 negative patients (all comers) was 5 points above baseline and for those who received one dose every 3 mos for 18 mos as planned had a 7.3 point increase. The probability value of this being a statistical fluke was 3 in 10,000.........p<0.003
10. Don't be fooled by Reuters. This attack was planned and well coordinated.
11. This data is very, very encouraging and very good. I was shocked to see Reuters spin this as negative WHILE I WAS STILL IN THE ROOM!!!
12 The emphasis on deaths and VE are off base
13. Huckman's initial positive observations were a brief glimpse at his HONEST, initial rection....a refreshing break from the norm!
14. The master Tauist from Albert Einstein showed his ugly side yesterday
15. The "scientists" didn't like the data being "mined"
16. The FDA didn't mind the data as presented and gave their blessing to a well-planned PIII trial which started 8 mos ago FOR A REASON!
17. Do I need to say this is overblown or have you figured that out yet?
18. They will try to rush this paper to print ASAP because the devil is in the details...lots and lots of information gathered from this exploratory trial which set the stage nicely for success in PIII...
19. Had dinner with a knowledgeable prominent neurologist who felt the data was VERY POSITIVE!

If you had faith in the science and scientists at Elan, nothing has changed. Keep the faith, don't be influenced by the price (if possible).

Glad I was there in person to flush this out...Regards to all my friends, new and old!

Creed

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.614.156 von Bachalor am 30.07.08 13:26:32

da bist Du nicht alleine

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.614.424 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 13:55:02

aktuell

$21,70

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.614.718 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 14:23:27

$21,21

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.614.785 von surga am 30.07.08 14:29:29

Kelly Martin
Has an interview in 35 minutes and the stock has traded its full daily volume and is down $12.00. What will he say ........ what could he say. We were hoping for our day in the sun. I hope Kelly Martin will weather this with conduct befitting a CEO. $25 $28 and $30 are the posts to reach can he get us going in the right direction.


http://www1.investorvillage.com/iv1/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=26090…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www1.investorvillage.com/iv1/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=26090…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Unglaublich der Kurs.....Die auf Kredit kauften müssen wohl raus...

Leering Schwan bleibt optimistisch


Elan (ELN): After selling for the wrong reasons, now is the time to buy for the right ones- Leerink (ACTIONABLE!)

More News related to ELN

* Elan (ELN): After selling for the wrong reasons, now is the time to buy for the right ones- Leerink (ACTIONABLE!)
* Elan (ELN): Bounce?
* Elan Corp (ELN) volatility Up; shares down $11 in pre-open on Alzheimer's data
* After-Hours Movers 7/29: Elan (ELN) Falls On Drug Data, MetLife (MET) Falls On Earnings/Guidance
* Wyeth (WYE) and Elan (ELN) Shares Jump After Mid-Stage Positive Results From Alzheimer's Treatment Study



Leerink Swann out defending Elan (NYSE: ELN) saying they are making no changes to their valuation of ELN shares and view any weakness today as a buying opportunity.

The harsh sell off in the stock that could occur today will likely be fueled by overblown expectations for the Phase II data and the difficulty in presenting a cogent analysis of a complex trial in a complex disease in a 12-minute presentation.

MEDACorp consultant who was involved in the Phase II trial noted that data were reviewed over a two and a half hour period during an investigator's meeting night before last, speaking to the complexity of the data and the relative inability to distill it into an "elevator pitch."

To the firm, no new data emerged that causes us to revisit their thesis that bapineuzumab is effective, safe and worthy of advancing into large scale pivotal testing and could be a much-needed therapy for treating AD.

Lack of a clear dose response should not be overly surprising, especially in ApoE4 non-carriers, given that three of the four doses tested in the Phase II trial are being examined in the ongoing Phase III studies.

Although the safety profile may be understandably complex, the fact that the FDA has permitted a large Phase III trial suggest that the risk/benefit is favorable. Certain neurological anomalies may be acceptable in deference to mitigating quality of life-threatening dementia.

Lost on investors may be the fact that measures of efficacy reported from the Phase II trial that include ADAS-cog, NTB, CDR-sob, volumetric MRI and biomarkers such as phosphorylated tau are conducted by different medical professionals, e.g., psychiatrists, medical doctors, nurses, caregivers and radiologists thus enhancing the corroborative nature of the findings, they believe.

Notablecalls: Well, Leerink sure knows their stuff. I'm calling this one Actionable with ELN trading around $21 in pre mkt.

http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/

[Poppholz]

Elan: Actionable Buy Call
by: Notable Calls posted on: July 30, 2008 |

Leerink Swann is out defending Elan (ELN) saying they are making no changes to their valuation of ELN shares and view any weakness today as a buying opportunity.

The harsh sell off in the stock that could occur today will likely be fueled by overblown expectations for the Phase II data and the difficulty in presenting a cogent analysis of a complex trial in a complex disease in a 12-minute presentation.

A MEDACorp consultant who was involved in the Phase II trial noted that data were reviewed over a two and a half hour period during an investigator's meeting night before last, speaking to the complexity of the data and the relative inability to distill it into an "elevator pitch."

To the firm, no new data emerged that causes them to revisit their thesis that bapineuzumab is effective, safe and worthy of advancing into large scale pivotal testing and could be a much-needed therapy for treating Alzheimer's Disease.

Lack of a clear dose response should not be overly surprising, especially in ApoE4 non-carriers, given that three of the four doses tested in the Phase II trial are being examined in the ongoing Phase III studies.

Although the safety profile may be understandably complex, the fact that the FDA has permitted a large Phase III trial suggests that the risk/benefit is favorable. Certain neurological anomalies may be acceptable in deference to mitigating quality of life-threatening dementia.

Lost on investors may be the fact that measures of efficacy reported from the Phase II trial that include ADAS-cog, NTB, CDR-sob, volumetric MRI and biomarkers such as phosphorylated tau are conducted by different medical professionals, e.g., psychiatrists, medical doctors, nurses, caregivers and radiologists thus enhancing the corroborative nature of the findings, they believe.

Notablecalls: Well, Leerink sure knows their stuff. I'm calling this one Actionable with ELN trading around $21 in pre-market.

Please see our earlier piece for further color.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/87962-elan-actionable-buy-ca…

[Bachalor]

auch wenn es erstmal schmerzt


wer weiss wie der tag endet

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...in 6 Minuten sehe ich Kelly Martin das erte Mal-auf CNBC ....

[bernie55]

KM on CNBC:

KM on CNBC:

KM on CNBC:

..ab ca. 15.40 Uhr

http://www.myp2p.eu/channel.php

[bernie55]

..Vorgeplänkel...

.. allgemeinerKommentar zu ELAN....

...Kursverfall ist eine Überreaktion !!!!

[bernie55]

...jetzt geht es los !!!!

[bernie55]

..hau rein Kelly.....

[Poppholz]

Biotech
Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW Elan-Wyeth Alzheimer's Data Spook Bulls07/30/08 - 08:35 AM EDT
ELN MYGN WYE
Adam Feuerstein

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10430988/2/elan-wyeth-alzheim…

[Bachalor]

so,damit der kurs eine schöne kurve zeigt
wird mein freund mal bißchen aufpumpen





da muss er auch bei der hitze durch

[bernie55]

...WERBUNG........oooohhh.......come on......

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

....bis jetzt noch nix...

[bernie55]

aktuell 21,55 - 21,57

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.526 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 15:41:13

Elan-Wyeth Alzheimer's Data Spook Bulls

07/30/08 - 08:35 AM EDT
Adam Feuerstein

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10430988/1/elan-wyeth-alzheim…

(so sieht das schick aus)

[bernie55]

..Long strange Credit Trip....wie lange noch ????

...we want KM !!!!! we want + + + + + + + !!!

[Bachalor]

ich verwetet meinen hintern
das sie den sl bei 20 fischen wollen

die nutzen die unsicherheit

[bernie55]

...jetzt.....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.609 von Bachalor am 30.07.08 15:47:45

das die das wollen kann ich mir gut vorstellen.

Bei der Aktie ist heute alles möglich.

Ich verkaufe auf jeden Fall keine einzige Aktie.

(mit dem KAUFEN bin ich mir allerdings nicht mehr so sicher)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

NIX NEUES---SIND DIE TOTAL BLÖD???????????????????????????????

[bernie55]

...blubber...blubber....blubber....blubber....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.668 von bernie55 am 30.07.08 15:53:52

..so, jetzt muss ich nochmal was tun......

..bis dann

bernie55

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.691 von bernie55 am 30.07.08 15:56:01

wir sehen uns bei 26 plus x gegen 18 uhr

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.725 von Bachalor am 30.07.08 15:58:31

hoffentlich


ich gehe mit nero gassi
sonst schau ich nur auf den ticker von acra

[Holgus]

Tja, das wars dann wohl ... der Tag der Tage hat sein Ende.

Und ich bin meine Kohle jetzt wohl ein für alle Mal los.
Ich könnt kotzen ... wenn das Ding sich wirklich ein bißchen wieder erholt, dann zieh ich noch den kläglichen Rest Kohle raus und sag diesem Mistpapier Elan endgültig Ade.

Drei Jahre lang ... und immer wieder angeschissen worden

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.773 von Holgus am 30.07.08 16:01:45

...ich finde es unfassbar,wie unprofessionell Kelly uns im Regen hat stehen lassen.....er hätte die Daten erklären müssen,Perspektiven aufzeigen+ Optimismus verbreiten müssen.....KANN das wirklich sein,dass er das nicht KANN???????????????????????????????:O

[Holgus]

Es ist alles so ungerecht, die Myriad Alzheimerklitsche hat vollständig versagt ... und schaut mal, wo die Aktie heute steht. Deutlich höher als vorher.

Und was macht Elan ?

Die Welt lacht sich `nen Ast.

[Poppholz]

ich finde, dass unser Baby recht "stabil" läuft.

Hatte mit stärkeren Schwankungen gerechnet, ähnlich der Bewegung gestern im AFTER HOUR MARKT.



wenigstens die Umsätze sind jetzt endlich einmal vernünftig. Muss also genügend Leute geben, die kaufen.

Vielleicht geht es aber auch nur "Rechte Tasche > Linke Tasche", um so die Kleinanleger abzufischen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Das sind wohl auch die Shorts die decken

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.866 von Poppholz am 30.07.08 16:10:17

auch wenn ich mich aus

ich bleibe dabei

sk ca 30$


denn manchmal denke ich in meinem kleinen hirn


dass die ceo usw das absichtlich machen


habe da private erfahrung gesammelt mit biph

[Bachalor]

auf mein freund,hau rein





ich habe berni 26 plus x für 18 uhr versprochen

[Poppholz]

wir haben den Boden gesehen.

Jetzt geht es aufwärts

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Vielleicht werden wir jetzt übernommen--heute wärs mir recht....------Ich verkaufe nicht--aber SO kann man Nicht mit Aktionären umgehen..!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.987 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 16:19:46

er kriegt wahrscheinlich kalte Füße

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.616.035 von surga am 30.07.08 16:23:59

er wirkte übermüdet (bin ich auch ---)und resigniert--nicht wie ein Fels in der Brandung----mich nervt,dass wir nichts tun können....

[dasHaendchen]

Ich bin im Ausland und sehe das Unfassbare erst jetzt.
Ein Alptraum!

Zuerst Hana und jetzt das.
Also Biotechnologie-Aktien scheinen mir kein Glück zu bringen.

Ein Alptraum,
ich hoffe es gibt ein erwachen.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.616.105 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 16:29:23

Er wirkte gefaßt

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808023718&play=1

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.616.316 von surga am 30.07.08 16:49:48

...ich kannes leider nicht abspielen...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.616.366 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 16:54:14

Bei mir geht es.
Vielleicht geht es bei Dir nur auf Internet Explorer von Microsoft?
Kopiere doch bitte links unten auf MS Internet Explorer:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808023718&play=1

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.616.731 von surga am 30.07.08 17:27:55

..ich habs ja einmal gesehen + lasse mir das später von meinem Sohn irgendwie abspielbar machen-gestern hats auch irgendwie geklappt-aber ich weiss nicht mehr wie...(brauche AAB...)

[Bachalor]

sorry bernie


war nix mit 26


verbrecher wären die,wenn sie alle sammeln
und heute oder morgen eine news käme

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.615.609 von Bachalor am 30.07.08 15:47:45

Immer die gleichen dreckigen Machenschaften. Recht haste. Erst mal sehen wie weit die SLs unter $ 20 hängen. Die Sauerei geht noch bis $ 17,70 weiter. Werde mich ziemlich sicher von dieser Aktionärsverarscherei verabschieden. Eine technische Reaktion kommt früher oder später sowieso. Mehr als $ 25 sind wohl nicht mehr drin.

[surga]

Elan CEO Defends Alzheimer Drug; Selloff 'Unjustified'

http://www.cnbc.com//id/25931641?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7…

By CNBC.com with wires | 30 Jul 2008 | 11:29 AM ET

Inconclusive test results for a new Alzheimer's drug caused an "unjustified" selloff in stocks for pharmaceutical companies Elan and Wyeth, Elan CEO Kelly Martin told CNBC.

Expectations of the trial, which was designed to test the safety and biological effects of the drug bapineuzumab, were "outsized" by Wall Street, Martin said.

Although the study didn't reach any significant endpoints, the company reached its goal by learning about the drug's efficacy and safety, he said. (See video for the full interview with Martin.)
"Clearly, there is a gap in knowledge with the marketplace and the investors with the data," he said. "A relatively small phase 2 Alzheimer's trial is never going to be able to answer all the questions about Alzheimer's that have existed."

Shares of Elan lost about one-third of their value and were down more than $12 in early morning trade. Shares of Wyeth fell more than $5. The two companies are co-developers of the drug.
Tuesday's results showed the drug raised the risk of a potentially serious side effect, especially in people with a genetic risk of the disease, the companies said.

Twelve people with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's, who were treated with the drug, developed a build-up of fluid in the brain called vasogenic edema, according to the study. Ten of those cases were in people who have the ApoE4 gene, which significantly raises their risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. The other two were in non-carriers of the gene.

The side effect appeared to be "strongly related" to the dose of the drug people took, said Dr. Ronald Black, assistant vice president in neuroscience research at Wyeth.

Preliminary findings released last month showed the drug failed to boost memory and functionality in most of 234 patients over 18 months.

Carriers of ApoE4, 60 percent of those who got the drug and 70 percent who got the placebo, did not show any improvement in their ability to think or function.

But in the non-carriers of ApoE4, the companies did find a statistically significant improvement in these measures.
In the phase 3 study, the companies plan to give higher doses of the drug to people who do not carry the ApoE4 gene, and a single low dose to the ApoE4 carriers.

The companies plan to meet with regulators about the final design of the four late-stage clinical trials, which will involve 4,100 patients, Black said.

--Reuters contributed to this report.

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.617.244 von HAL11000 am 30.07.08 18:28:24

das ist bei bio-und medizien werten halt das risiko


wenn mal was nicht gleich klappt,gibt es was auf die ohren



schau dir mal diese firma etwas genauer an
wo sie sitzt usw


http://www.imsat.co.uk/expertise/key.php


vor einiger zeit hatte ich und surga das vergnügen den ceo zu treffen
(gut ich kenne ihn etwas länger)


das ist für mich mit einer der weltweit modernsten forschungseinrichtungen der welt

weil
1.die britischen inseln für med und biotech firmen einen unschätzbaren vorteil haben
2.weil in solchen instituten alle 3 phasen auf kürzestem weg durchgeführt werden können
3.den instituten ein krankenhaus mit 6000 betten angeschlossen ist
wo nur probanten usw behandelt werden



zu1

auf den inseln gibt es nur 1 krankenkasse
jeder wird von geburt an gespeichert
jedes medikament,krankheit usw

so hat mal in minutenschnelle z.b mögliche probanten
woanders würde die auswahl z.b ewig dauern


elan abschreiben wegen der dürftigen ergebnissen würde ich niemals
solange die finazen weiterhin da sind


ich habne mir früher angwöhnt

nach m.m. unterbewertete aktien zu kaufen
und bei 105% die hälfte zu verkaufen

dann kann die akite theortisch machen was sie will

verlust kann es keinen mehr geben



bacha

[Bachalor]

die kochen die 20 richtig weich

damit es sich auch richtig lohnt dann

mann machr es halt endlich

[Bachalor]

was ein witz




jedesmal wenn es eng wird
stellt einer große order ins bid

wenn die mal bedient wird
knallt es gleich zu 19.70-19.80

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 261748 7/30/2008 2:08:24 PM
By: emerginganalyst

Goldman Sachs continues buy recommendation with 45 target

Important quote:
Further, the data in patients who completed the full dose schedule in the
study, in both APOE4 +ve and -ve patients, were clinically meaningful, as
well as statistically significant. One of the aspects of the data that we
believe investors have overlooked is that these results are IN ADDITION to
existing Alzhemier's Disease therapies. In our view, that makes the data,
albeit with its limitations, more compelling.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 261748 7/30/2008 2:08:24 PM
By: emerginganalyst

Goldman Sachs continues buy recommendation with 45 target

Important quote:
Further, the data in patients who completed the full dose schedule in the
study, in both APOE4 +ve and -ve patients, were clinically meaningful, as
well as statistically significant. One of the aspects of the data that we
believe investors have overlooked is that these results are IN ADDITION to
existing Alzhemier's Disease therapies. In our view, that makes the data,
albeit with its limitations, more compelling.

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.123 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 20:32:36

2 * 45 = 90?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Author: emerginganalyst
send pm · add member to favs · ignore · recommend



Leerink Swann recommends buy ELN : Fair value $44
They said today:
ELAN CORPORATION
After selling for the wrong reasons, now is the time to buy for the
right ones
• Bottom Line: For its intended purpose, data from the Phase II trial of
bapineuzumab in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease
(AD) presented at ICAD yesterday support the notion that the trial was
successful and provides intriguing proof of concept that broader clinical
testing of beta amyloid-modulating therapies is warranted, in our opinion.

[DerBergderruft]

welchen Grund gibt es jetzt Elan zu kaufen?
welche Medikamente bringen Geld? Das Mittel zu MS?

Wyeth erholt sich schon langsam... Hat Elan gute Chancen oben zu bleiben oder gibt es ein böses Ende?

heute fast 70 Mio. Aktien gehandelt... immerhin nicht alle...

[Bachalor]

so
die 20 sind gefallen

was komt jetzt

[Bachalor]

jetzt wird mal richtig um 20 gesammelt
und am ende könnte ich mir nochmal einen kleinen run vorstellen

zur zeit wird immer genau die 20 dicke zugestellt


wenn es auf ca 20.15 geht geht es nochmal hoch nach m.m.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.218 von DerBergderruft am 30.07.08 20:47:17

Tysabri(MS+ Parkinson);EDT(Forschung/Entwicklung/Nano),Pipeline zu ALZ mit 10 Medikamenten in Phase3.Gruss!

[moneyseeker]

Kann mal jemand erklären warum immer Elan der Prügelknabe ist und viele andere Pharmawerte nicht?

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.793 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 22:02:44

weil viel mehr erwartet wurde wie die aussagen von gestern nacht und heute





bin bedient für heute

[moneyseeker]

Ist der CEO ein Betrüger oder Idiot - frage ich mich.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.844 von moneyseeker am 30.07.08 22:08:12

...eher Dussel--- Ich war fassungslos über seinen Auftritt--derartig diletantisch

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.867 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 22:10:25

Er sah echt nicht gut aus

[bernie55]

test

[bernie55]

..also , ich bin echt platt.....echt " illuminated".....

ELN 19.63 USD - 14.12 USD

.....der echte Wahnsinn....leider nur in die falsche Richtung....

...ich muss das Ganze erst mal verdauen.......

...und dann noch der heutige Auftritt von KM......ich fass es einfach nicht.....

..bin immer noch gut im Plus....das soll und kann aber kein Trost sein !!!!!

....die große Fragen , die ich mir jetzt stelle....

Wann ist der Boden endlich erreicht ???
Geht die " Überhysterie " weiter ???
Haben ELAN und WYETH durch ihren " Auftritt" das Vertrauen der Anleger verspielt ???

..Fragen, die ich aktuell nicht beantworten kann...

[DerBergderruft]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.867 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 22:10:25

könnte dies nicht am Alzheimermittel gelegen haben? Ev. hat er sein Medikament nicht eingenomen und wirkte so verwirrt und hilflos.. wusste ev. nicht mehr wer er ist..

[DerBergderruft]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.618.593 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.07.08 21:40:07

danke...
mmerhin ist die Aktie jetzt etwas billiger für das normale Fussvolk.,..

[bernie55]

Vergleich der heutigen Aktienkurse von WYETH und ELAN nach den " illuminated " news

WYE down 11.90%.......damit hätte ich leben können....

ELN down 41.84%......... damit müssen wir leben....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN down 41.84%......... damit müssen wir leben....--aber WIE?

Im Moment bin ich noch so geschockt,dass ich nicht wirklich weiss,WIE ich damit leben kann---aber folgender Beitrag ist wirklich ganz wichtig....auf alle Fälle sind wir nicht blöd + daneben-sondern hier läuft etwas im Hintergrund,deren Opfer WIR gerade sind--und es ist eben NICHT so,dass Elan mit seinen Ergebnissen versagt hat...


ELN msg # 262499 7/30/2008 10:34:59 PM
By: srsmgja

The Big Picture

It would seem that the street missed the big picture, IMO.

The purpose of this phase 2 trial was to 1) establish safety 2) attempt to establish dosing 3) establish signs/signals of efficacy. The trial was not large and not powered to reach statistical significance, yet that appears to be what the street has expecting.

Did Elan acomplish its goals?

There would appear to be reasonable safety (at least thus far).

They have selected dosing

There are CLEAR signals of efficacy

To the last point, let me expound

The efficacy was designed on an intent to treat. All that was needed for a patient to be included in the final efficacy tally was ONE INFUSION (out of 6 planned) and ONE efficacy measurement beyond the initial baseline. So, if a patient dropped out after only 1-2 infusions at the 6 month point of the trial, they were still included in the results. If you look at the graphs that ELAN persented, you will see that the graphs START DIVERGING only AFTER approx 1 year. Therefore patients dropping out of the trial early had a negative effect on the final results......What's the big deal?? Well we only missed stat significance by mere fractions....... one or two patients could easily have tippped the results........... and the headline news would have been different.

Let me give you an anology. Let's say I want to prove that penicillin can succesfully treat pneumonia. Now normally, the drug is given for a full ten days...... But lets say I included in my final efficacy results patients that only took the antibiotic for 1-2 days. Depending on the number of total patients and the number that didn't take the full course of antibiotic, I might not be able to prove my case.


Look at the slide in the ELAN/WYE presentation labelled COMPLETER

These included ALL patients (carrier and non-carrier) who got the full 6 doses and MOST IMPORTANT got an efficacy measurement at week 78 (18 months). There were approx. 160 of thses patients.

AND THEY HIT STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE on

1. ADAS-cog p=0.003 (HIGH stat significance)

2. NTB p=0.045

3. DAD p=0.041


They hit statistical significance (in a trial not powered to hit statisical significance) in 2 cognitive endpoints and one functional endpoint. The FDA requires one cognitive and one functional.
Print

[bernie55]

Irish Independent,July 31/08

Elan shares slump on Phase II data on Alzheimer's drug

half of all Alzheimer's patients. Bapineuzumab, which had been tagged as the new Lipitor, is the first treatment shown to help patients by removing clumps of protein in their brains. It is one of the most keenly watched drugs under development in the pharmaceuticals industry, reflecting the huge need for effective dementia treatments amid a growing older population.

Analysts were mixed on the results and some said the information raised as many questions as it answered, while others slashed their price targets for the stock.

"Negatives within the data include efficacy trends that were weak, and potentially worrisome safety findings that seemed marginally worse than we expected," said Sanford Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson.

Therapy

Mr Anderson, who has given the therapy a 70pc chance of failure, said investors also "felt burned" by a June 17 summary that gave a move positive impression of the data.

However, yesterday, Elan executive vice president and chief scientific officer, Dale Schenk, defended the company's comments from June stating that what was said was spot on with the research results.

"It was challenging, we had to explain a huge amount of data in 13 minutes (at the conference), it takes a while to explain it all," he said. "Some people are viewing this as pivotal Phase III, it is Phase II."

Some analysts also suggested that the sell-off of shares indicated an over-reaction to the news.

"The top-down signals remain that the ApoE4 non-carrier group has demonstrated very promising efficacy data without incurring any red flags on safety," said Davy Stockbroker analyst Jack Gorman.

Prior to the results, Elan shares had gained significantly and were trading towards highs not seen since 2005 before Tysabri, a treatment for multiple sclerosis, was linked to three cases of a rare, deadly brain disease called PML and was withdrawn suddenly from US sale. It later returned to the market.

Some analysts had forecast eventual sales of $13bn from the Alzheimer's treatment. However, some said yesterday that the emergence of 12 people with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's who were treated with the drug and and developed the build up of fluid in the brain called vasogenic edema, could cast doubt over its clinical value.


http://www1.investorvillage.com/iv1/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=26258…

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.619.815 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 31.07.08 07:42:38

Vielleicht ist es ja ein ganz abgekatertes Spiel der Bigs, mit einer riesigen letzten "Negativaktion" die ganzen Kleinanleger aus der Aktie zu vertreiben und sich die ganzen Dinger unter den Nagel zu reißen ... wer weiß.

Dazu müßte man jetzt mal aktuelle Zahlen der institutionellen Anleger sehen, dann wäre sicher einiges klarer. Der Anteil müßte dann um mindestens 10% zugelegt haben.

Oh man, lass das alles bitte nur ein böser Traum sein

[Holgus]

Wenn tatsächlich die "Straße" die Daten nicht versteht bzw. falsch interpretiert, dann haben Elan und WHY jetzt ein für alle Mal die verdammte Pflicht, diese in verständlicher Form aufzubereiten und via riesen PR-Aktion in die Welt zu blasen ... Mensch.

Oder auch ein möglichst schneller Zulassungsantrag, zumindest für die AD-Population, für die das Medikament unbestritten Wirkung zeigt.

Aber ich denke mal, nichts dergleichen wird geschehen.

Was juckt Kelly und Co. schon der Kleinanleger ... alles dumme Lippenbekenntnisse.