Gewinnerbranchen der Jahre 2006 bis 2040 (Seite 932)

[clearasil]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.318.981 von Low-Risk-Strategie am 28.11.18 17:34:38

nachdem in 2018 Fisch siegen wird, wird in 2019 sicher der Rauch aufsteigen. und dein 2017er-kiff-depot hat ja auch sinnliche wolken verbreitet.

meinen vollen respekt dafür!!!

habe intern ungewöhnliche 30 Werte auf der 2019er shortlist stehen. wird medizinisch.

[Low-Risk-Strategie]

Geht mein Contestdepot in 2019 in Rauch auf?

Habe mein Herbst-Research für 2019 abgeschlossen. Ich gehe davon aus, dass sich das Contestdepot sich nahe an der Performance meines realen Depots bewegen wird.
Ich setze im nächsten Jahr auf die Sektoren Tabak, Getränke, Spezialfooties, zwei Krankenhausdienstleister und die drei Tech-Triple-AAA. Tabak und teil. Getränke sind m.A. schreiend günstig.

[clearasil]

EXEL - noch eine von diesen neuen Biopharmas.

https://www.marketscreener.com/stock-analyses/Exelixis_Inc_A…

[clearasil]

Jim Cramer: I Can't Believe How Badly Many Huge, Important Stocks Have Performed
I tire of hearing that there has been a correction.
JIM CRAMER
Nov 26, 2018 | 03:20 PM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: NVDA, GE, IBM, RHT, GS, CELG, MU

The question is not when will the bear market begin. It's when will it end.

I tire of hearing that there has been a correction. I can't believe how badly many huge, important stocks have performed.

Let's just tick down the action in some of the former darlings.

Did you know that Nvidia's (NVDA) stock, until today's buy recommendation by Credit Suisse, was down an astounding 49%. I am hearing people calling it a reset. Others are calling it a change in the narrative after a soft quarter and weak guidance.

You know what I call it?

I call it a crash.

What do you call it when the stock of General Electric (GE) , once the biggest company in the world, is down 57%. Is that correction territory? I think it's part of the ongoing bear market because every time you have tried to call the bottom in the darned thing, it has taken your head off.

IBM's (IBM) stock traded at $171 in January. It's now at $119. Meanwhile, the company has reinvented itself by buying Red Hat (RHT) , one of my favorite companies. It doesn't matter. In a bull market, I swear, that stock would have gone up on the news. But in a bear market, as we have seen so often, it goes down no matter what.

Did you know that the stock of Goldman Sachs (GS) traded at $243 this summer? It hit $188 on Friday after a vicious Morgan Stanley downgrade. The stock trades through the tangible book value of the company, meaning the cash on hand. That's just incredible. It's quintessential bear market behavior. Does anyone say it? No, they just say that Goldman's in big trouble with Malaysia, not that anyone can explain that anyone in the top levels of Goldman even knew about the scandal. Sure, there is a failure to supervise issue and I can't believe how Goldman Sachs,, my Alma mater, can't get ahead of this story. But I also can't believe this stock could be so cheap. Yet in a bear market things just get cheaper and cheaper much to my charitable trust's chagrin.

We got an upgrade today of Celgene (CELG) , the one amazing biotech stock that now is being birddogged by those who fear that its Revlimid profits are going to run out because of a patent cliff. The upgrade's basis? Celgene trades at 6.5 times earnings. That is completely ridiculous. Preposterous.

But then again the stock of Micron (MU) traded at 4 times earnings when it was at $62. Now it trades at $36 and sells at 3 times earnings. So much for price-to-earnings multiple protection.

I could go on and on. I have dozens of these examples. But the simple fact is this: most money managers have only seen the systemic risk kind of bear market, that is 2007 to 2009. They haven't seen a Fed induced slowdown. They haven't seen an end-of-cycle bear market where stocks just keep going down and down until sellers at last exhaust themselves or the macro factors, like a deal with China or a one-and-wait strategy by Jay Powell happens. Until then, get used to it.

[clearasil]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.301.548 von investival am 26.11.18 18:30:37

vielen Dank für deine Expertise zur INVA-Bilanz

dass es absolut keine weitere pipeline-anstrengungen bislang gibt, finde ich auch sehr merkwürdig - man ist dem Erfolg der beiden Inhalationsgeräte absolut ausgeliefert.

und dieser lukrative Teilbereich wird sicher Konkurrenz anziehen.

deswegen finde ich die heute eingestellte, sehr optimistische disc. cashflow-analyse auch nur mit Vorsicht geniessenswert ...

habe mal eine Anfangsposition gekauft.

[clearasil]

https://www.reddit.com/r/RobinHood/comments/80ddd4/innoviva_…

9 months ago
Due Diligence

Innoviva Inc.: A Small-Cap, High Margin, Royalty Holding Company with 43% Upside and Ample Capital Return Potential

Innoviva Inc. (INVA)

Share Price: $16.10

Market Cap: $1.7b

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

There are a bunch of diagrams I included along with screenshots of my DCF calculations to support the article but Reddit lacks the ability to embed images, so you can view the article with images here.

Within the realm of $1-2 billion pharmaceutical companies, there exists a bounty of unprofitable, yet hopeful, companies with few or no marketed products. Innoviva stands alone among this group, with sky high profit margins, growing revenue and a clear path for further capital return programs. Innoviva Inc. collects royalties on 3 marketed products by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in their series of Ellipta inhalers. Over the past several years, the company has transitioned into what is essentially a holding company for these royalty payments after spinning off it's R&D and biotech division into Theravance Biopharma (TBPH).

Though board and executive compensation has been criticized as being too high, costing $32 million annually, for a company that simply manages a royalty stream, a proxy initiated by Sarissa Capital will seat new 3 board members, 2 of them being Sarissa executives, and remove 5 former members in an effort to more closely align shareholder interests with the actions of the company. Their clearly stated goals are to maximize returns to shareholders via stock buybacks, dividend programs, and debt reduction. I'll be using a standard discounted cash flow model to determine the cash flow potential of the firm through 2028, while simultaneously analyzing methods in which Innoviva can return capital to shareholders.

+++

Capital Deployment & Financing

Innoviva has an extremely lightweight and shareholder friendly business model due to its low operational requirements in managing the royalty stream. The firm currently spends $32 million annually on SG&A and $1.3 million on R&D. The largest cost is it's interest payments on a rather large debt load of $574 million, with annual interest payments of $43 million. That being said, the firm has explicitly stated their goals to buy back debt, thus lowering interest payments.

Debt

Recently, a smart strategic decision to re-financing the firm's 9% 2029 debt notes to notes ranging from 2.1% - 5.8%. From these re-financing efforts, they will be able to save $18 million in annual interest payments, effective immediately with interest savings improving as debt is reduced. They will now owe $250 million by 2022 with a 5.8% rate, $241 million by 2023 at 2.125%, and $193 million by 2025 at 2.5%, with the latter two being convertible notes.

These debt payments will not be of any financial strain, as Innoviva will have annual earnings and cash reserves exceeding the payment amounts by a wide margin. By 2022, the $250 million payment will be covered by full year EBIT of $376 million, and total cash exceeding $877 million (accounting for a 70% of revenue being used for dividends/buybacks). The ample coverage of this debt leads me to believe debt will be re-purchased prior to their expiry, but modeling such events would be entirely speculative, and thus I assume full payments of debt in the year they are due.

This improved debt structure will reduce interest payments by an even greater rate, as can be seen below. I would even consider this to be a worst case scenario, as it assumes no debt repurchases before this date. Reductions in interest payments are the primary force driving expanded profitability over the next 10 years, and shareholders can look forward to an 11% margin expansion from 2018 to 2028.

Dividend & Share Repurchase Program

2020 will be an opportune time to re-implement a dividend program. At this point, Innoviva will have positive net cash, with ample annual cash flow to cover such a program. I anticipate a relatively low payout ratio of ~20% upon the implementation of this program, though as cash flows grow and more cash is retained and accumulated, a 50% payout ratio is very reasonable given the nature of this business. By 2024, I expect the 50% payout ratio to come to fruition as the firm's financial health continues to improve. As can be viewed in the table below, share buybacks have the effect of increasing the per-share dividend payout, contributing to an impressive 22% dividend growth rate from 2020-2028.

I also anticipate Innoviva will deploy 20% of annual net income to buying back shares of common stock. Of course this level will fluctuate as shares are typically repurchased opportunistically and based on the current valuation, but an average of 20% is reasonable and sustainible. A buyback program of this size would reduce outstanding shares by over 30 million by 2028, from 106,945,000 to an estimate of 71,501,000 shares.

Margin Expansion

Though net margins for the year of 2017 were 63%, expanding revenues and relatively fixed administrative costs will inevitably lead to greater net margins in the long term. Coupled with debt buybacks and lower interest payments, my goal of 93% net profit margins are sustainable given these cash flow projections, even when paired with an aggressive capital return program.

Due to activist investor Sarissa Capital being granted 2 board seats, I expect SG&A costs to be reduced, per their goals, by ~25% over the next several years to a more reasonable level of the adminstrative requirements for such a company, at approximately $23-24 million annually. Debt buybacks, share repurchases, and dividend payments will contribute to greater profitability all while fulfilling management's goal of maximizing the return of capital to shareholders.

While its important to note that these are simply my own projections, these figures are entirely supported by my somewhat conservative cash flow projections. Innoviva will still retain $120 - 190 million in free cash flow annually after all capital return programs are distributed, attributing to a significant amount of accumulated cash over the next 10 years. Based on the projections used in my capital returns program (50% dividend payout, 20% share buybacks) retained cash reserves will exceed $1.3 billion by the end of 2028. It is unclear if there are plans to deploy capital in new investments, though such an investment would require little administrative oversight to remain such an efficient cash-flow generative company.
Valuation & Conclusion

Using the information above I constructed a discounted cash flow model to determine an accurate per share value. I excluded any dividend payments and capital return program to determine a value strictly based on cash flow potential. The long term growth rate of 2.5% is to account for price increases due to inflationary forces. Calculating WACC to be 14.56%, I derive a price target of $23.63, representing 45% upside from current prices.

Innoviva looks to be a strong growth candidate with a large discrepancy between current share prices and intrinsic value. I've purchased a starter position at $16.05 with plans to add on any market or share price weakness. Its rare to find companies with this level of profitability and free cash flow, and I don't feel the market appreciates just how much value can be returned to shareholders over the next 10 years. Dividend payments over this period will total $18.77 (based on a 50% payout ratio), and $799 million worth of shares can be re-purchased using just 20% of net income towards such repurchases.

[clearasil]

zu INVA - Präsentation - Podukte, Finanzierung und Aussichten:
http://investor.inva.com/static-files/976df35e-4ea4-42eb-b75…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://investor.inva.com/static-files/976df35e-4ea4-42eb-b75…

[clearasil]

zu Idorsia- pipeline - 4malphase3 mittlerweile.
https://www.idorsia.com/about-idorsia/idorsia-today/our-pipe…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
https://www.idorsia.com/about-idorsia/idorsia-today/our-pipe…

die Partnerschaften:
https://www.idorsia.com/about-idorsia/partnerships" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
https://www.idorsia.com/about-idorsia/partnerships

[Popeye82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.303.573 von Stromgegner am 26.11.18 23:16:10

Stromgegner
________





Was halten Sie von EVs?

[Stromgegner]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.290.813 von Simonswald am 24.11.18 16:21:06

MSCI US Microcap Universum. Eine Assetklasse, die per se 3-5 Prozentpunkte oder so besser als der breite Markt sein sollte.

Also so viel - oder wenig - Vertrauen in die Effizienz des Marktes hätte ich schon, dass das nicht so einfach sein kann.