Chart´s ,Chancen und Chaos - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[weisenstein]

...it`s probably best to allow the water to cool before getting on board again, but there is support near $312 and $307.


Ausbildung einer Dreiecksformation


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_062802…


Gold is struggling at this possible neckline of 325. A breakout, if confirmed by a pullback and turn, would suggest 410

A turn on the neckline would confirm target o 95.



The long term trend is rising. The index is close to long term support.












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GOLD & SILVER REVIEW
For Monday July 1, 2002
Erik Gebhard

August Gold:
Thud was the sound of gold getting pounded into the ground. The yellow metal was weaker all session against the backdrop of stronger equity markets and a stronger dollar. Near the close however, gold bulls capitulated and collapsed from exhaustion as they helplessly watched bears pummel their beloved metal $9 lower taking out many stops below $316. However, in the fleeting moments of the close you should have seen the action! Gold bounced around in frenzy, finally resting for the week at $313.9, down $5.7, and on the week, gold was down about $10.

This week the NASDAQ broke below 1,000 and the dollar hit fresh lows, yet gold faltered. It hovered near the low $320 area earlier this week, and in so doing it tipped its hand a bit, showing us that if it couldn`t rally on what is typically a bullish scenario, that it was time to bail out of longs for the moment. Sure enough, the technical corrective bounce in equities and the dollar that we anticipated started, and gold caved today. Now, don`t` be surprised to see a 10% rally in the NASDAQ, and a bit in the dollar, but afterwards I`d anticipate fresh lows which would give gold bulls another opening.

Housing numbers continue to be the only bright spot in the economy, with demand and price appreciation seemingly unstoppable. Is real estate the next bubble? Never mind that people are paying "nose-bleed" prices, never mind that many have borrowed against their homes and are leveraged to the hilt, and never mind that these people could be upside down in a hurry if they lose their jobs, rates rise, etc. Wasn`t an inflated real estate market and subsequent loan defaults what finally decimated Japan`s financial house of cards a decade ago, from which they have yet to recover? What happens when rates do increase, will US real estate collapse? Just as in Japan, the government could be compelled to bail out non-performing loans, which means taxpayers like you and I could foot the bill, just as we did for the S&L and LTCM bailouts. That extra strain on us in an already weak economic environment would place extra weight on stocks or send them scurrying further into an abyss, and likely entrench us in a depression. Even if rates don`t increase for some time (who knows, the Fed could even lower them next time around) we still have to content with weak Consumer Confidence numbers, massive layoffs from major corporations, burgeoning trade deficits, analyst downgrades, the WorldCom debacle and lack of trust in corporate accounting and CEO`s, admissions of document shredding, insider trading accusations, Mid East turmoil, the threat of a July 4th attack, etc.

A recent Barron`s article by Alan Abelson references how stocks are in a bear market and alternatives such as commodities and metals are likely investment vehicles of choice. Of course gold bugs have touted the same party line since the invention of fire, and gold did move from $275 to $330 in the last 6-months.

But, with the collapse today, key uptrend support near $319 was broken. I mentioned this week that if that occurred we`d see $312 "in a hurry", but I didn`t think it would only take THREE minutes! That`s right, eight minutes before the close we were quietly hovering around $317, and only THREE minutes later we had put in a low at $310.5! Based on the volatile close, it`s probably best to allow the water to cool before getting on board again, but there is support near $312 and $307.


September Silver:
Just after silver settled at 485.5, down 4.3-cents, gold literally collapsed in a blink of an eye. Overall, expect to see silver following gold as the new week begins. Over the last two weeks we`ve traded in a channel bounded by 480 and 495, although the 6-month uptrend remains intact with the nearest layer of support near a 38% retracement of 476, with the 50% area and major uptrend support near 464. The chart still appears a bit top heavy, and bulls should look to buy dips to the low 470 area, and if you had bought puts last week as per TradeScope, hang on and keep your futures buy orders in place. Bulls should look for a close over 491 before buying. The next major resistance layer is the recent high near 518.

If you are interested in Altavest`s Papertrader Online service or trading futures or options, contact Erik Gebhard and visit us online to request our free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading.

Erik Gebhard

321gold Inc Miami USA
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immer noch ganz aktuell:
Dollar im besonderen
Daß der Dollar überbewertet ist, scheint sich langsam aber sicher herumzusprechen. Er verdankt diese Überbewertung im wesentlichen folgenden Faktoren:
- er ist Weltreservewährung Nummer eins.
- er gilt immer noch als Safe haven.
- die Hoffnung auf baldige Erholung von Wirtschaft und Börse ist noch weitgehend intakt - the good old bubbledays will return next quater ;-), Stichwort "Vertrauen".
- es gibt keine wirkliche Alternative im Papierwährungsbereich (denket an Gold und Silber!!!)
- er ist für unser Währungssystem unverzichtbar, weswegen er von allen Notenbanken gestützt werden muß, solange es irgendwie geht. Dies vorallem durch fortgesetzte Goldpreismanipulation sowie Interventionen auf Devisenmärkten.


Sollte auch nur einer dieser Faktoren wegfallen, dann ist mit einem Absturz des Dollars zu rechnen. In der Folge würden sich Importe für die USA erheblich verteuern und eine saftige Steigerung bei den Warenpreisen wird fällig. Umgekehrt würde es für alle anderen (EU, Japan, China,...) schwierig werden in die USA zu exportieren, was Preisdruck zur Folge hätte.

Vorallem das Gelingen der Goldpreismanipulation ist von entscheidender Bedeutung. Ansonsten liese sich das Märchen von der hohen Produktivität (=angeblich hohe Realverzinsung) und vom starken Dollar nicht aufrecht erhalten. Die Zinsen würden zu steigen beginnen, die Kreditmaschienerie würde zum Stillstand kommen und das Finanzsystem (Schulden, Derivate) inclusive Dollar mit sich reißen.
Original: Text entnommen aus dem Elliott-Wellen-Forum

MfG Weisenstein

[mickym [VIP]]

Danke für die schönen Charts. Das wird wohl manchen, die bereits von einer Gold-Bubble reden zu denken geben, wenn sie ehrlich sind.

gruss mic

[Goldguru]

@All

es hat sich definitiv um einen neuen Manipulationsversuch gehandelt, da kein Händler mehr in den letzten 10 (!) Minuten des Handels um 19.20 UHR solche Mengen von Goldkontrakten auf den Markt wirft ! Übrigens ist der folgende Artikel, der einzige, den ich bisher gefunden habe, der die Fakten anführt !

COMEX gold drops as central banks intervene on dlr
Reuters, 06.28.02, 4:21 PM ET

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Central bank intervention to prop up the dollar pulled the rug out from under COMEX gold on Friday, upending early gains and sending futures to a six-week low as bulls turned tail en masse.

Much of the capitulation came suddenly before the close, which left August gold <GCQ2> at $313.90 an ounce, down $5.70, or 1.8 percent. It managed an equally head-jerking bounce off $310.50, its lowest since May 16, in the final moments.

Spot gold <XAU=> fell to $314.00/5.00 from Thursday`s $319.00/50 close. Friday`s late fix by London bullion dealers was $318.50.

Gold was also a victim of investor outflows back into the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 53 points in the afternoon, despite news that Xerox Corp. would restate five years of results to reclassify more than $6 billion in revenues in the second accounting debacle absorbed by Wall Street this week.

The dollar was firm against the yen after the Bank of Japan led the intervention to prevent a rising yen from choking off Japan`s export-led recovery. The greenback failed to stay up against the euro, but still ended above the 28-month low hit at $0.9990 per euro in the morning.

"We rallied because of the strength of the euro based on the Xerox situation -- and there are a few other things that make people feel there`s no loss of confidence in U.S. equities due to all this thievery going on," said a floor broker. "Then intervention drove the dollar higher and that in turn drove gold lower."

Gold, equal parts currency and commodity over the years, has correlated tightly with the euro this year, reaching 2-1/2 year highs early this month above $330 an ounce.

Stock market jitters compounded the interest in gold as a store of value, amid worries about the fragile economic recovery, terrorism and corporate book cooking in the wake of the collapse of Enron Corp.

Estimated final volume was a busy 45,000 contracts, almost half of which came in the last few minutes of trade.

"It took out $316 with stops below that level and just hammered the market on those stops," said David Meger, analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. $310 was the obvious point of the movement but when we said that we weren`t expecting to get that in the next three minutes."

The long position on the COMEX has been a growing impediment as gold ran out of new buyers. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report released after the close Friday showed the net speculative long on the COMEX contracted to 37,967 contracts as of Tuesday from last week`s 41,241 lots.

July silver <0#SI:> fell 4.3 cents to $4.833 an ounce in a narrow $4.89-$4.825 range. Spot silver <XAG=> was last at $4.82/84, off from $4.86/88 late Thursday. It fixed at $4.87.

The net speculative long in silver fell to 39,164 contracts from 44,655 the previous week.

NYMEX July platinum <0#PL:> slipped $2.70 to $537.30 an ounce. Spot platinum <XPT=> closed at $535/540.

September palladium <0#PA:> rose $1.80 to $318.80, steadying above Thursday`s contract low at $314 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD=> fetched $316/326.

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service