Stehen die Weltbörsen vor einem Crash ??? (Seite 31063)

[Die_Tiefflugaktie]

Hier noch die Prognose der Aktienentwicklung für die kommende Woche.

[Flugplan]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.086.513 von DiMatteo am 03.05.09 22:17:16

der bezieht sich, so wie ich das sehe, auf den Dow Jones.

Ich denke auch nicht, dass sich Geschichte wiederholt...


Shiller on Depression Scares
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/shiller-on-depress…

und wenn die citigroup wirklich nur 10 Milliarden benötigen sollte, können wir uns alle freuen Ich halte diese Zahl für viel zu niedrig, wenn der IWF und Roubini Abschreibungen von knapp 4 Billionen sehen.

Credit Crisis Indicators

It has been some time, so here is a look at few credit indicators:

First, the British Bankers' Association reported Friday that the three-month dollar Libor rates were fixed at 1.007%. The LIBOR was at 1.30% a few weeks ago, and peaked at 4.81875% on Oct 10, 2008. The dollar LIBOR might break below 1.0% this week.


There has been improvement in the A2P2 spread. This has declined to 0.56. This is far below the record (for this cycle) of 5.86 after Thanksgiving, but still above the normal spread.

This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper.



Meanwhile the TED spread has decreased further over the last week, and is now at 86.39. This is the difference between the interbank rate for three month loans and the three month Treasury. The peak was 463 on Oct 10th and a normal spread is around 50 bps.



The third graph shows the spread between 30 year Moody's Aaa and Baa rated bonds and the 30 year treasury.

The spread has decreased sharply over the last couple of weeks. The spreads are still very high, especially for lower rated paper.

The Moody's data is from the St. Louis Fed:
Moody's tries to include bonds with remaining maturities as close as possible to 30 years. Moody's drops bonds if the remaining life falls below 20 years, if the bond is susceptible to redemption, or if the rating changes.



This graph shows the at the Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Index OAS (Option adjusted spread) for the last 2 years.

This is a broad index of investment grade corporate debt:
The Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.
Back in early March, Warren Buffett mentioned that credit conditions were tightening again - and this was probably one of the indexes he was looking at. Since March, the index has declined.

All of these indicators are still too high, but there has been progress.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/credit-crisis-indi…

[DiMatteo]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.086.470 von Flugplan am 03.05.09 22:05:28

Wenn die Citibank wirklich 10 Mrd. USD frisches Eigenkapital benötigt, wie das WSJ berichtet, dann muß man sich schon fragen, wie das bewerkstelligt werden soll, ohne den Staat auch faktisch zum Mehrheitsgesellschafter zu machen.

Die Marktkapitalisierung dieses Drecksinstituts beträgt gerade einmal 16 Mrd. USD.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,622554,00.html

[Don_Camillo]

Daimler-Chef Zetsche

"Weniger Autos bauen als verkaufen"

=> http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/artikel/0,2828,622…

Mal abgesehen dass die Investitionsindustrie Germany schon Schwierigkeiten hat bekommen auch die Zulieferer im produzierenden Gewerbe in diesem Fall Probleme...

[DiMatteo]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.086.470 von Flugplan am 03.05.09 22:05:28

Bezieht sich der Chart auf die US-Börsen?

Die aktuelle Bear Market Rally mag zwar kürzer gewesen sein als der Durchschnitt während der großen Depression, aber meines Erachtens hat der S&P 500 bereits 30% zugelegt und somit ist der durchschnittliche Anstieg aus dieser Zeit bereits erreicht.

Geschichte muß sich ja bekanntlich nicht wiederholen.

Gleichwohl bin ich fest davon überzeugt, daß es bald wieder massiv abwärts geht, denn die Märkte werden bald zur Kenntnis nehmen, daß das zweite Quartal keinen Deut besser wird als das erste.

[Flugplan]

Ich würde mich wundern, wenn bei den Stresstests "Stress" herauskommt. Die Banken führen die Tests selbst mit ihren eigenen Modellen durch, es gibt nur eine handvoll externe Mitarbeiter, die das überwachen. Warum sollte man sich auch Stress machen? Die Banken dürfen doch mittlerweile eh mehr oder weniger ihre Bilanz bewerten, wie sie es für richtig halten.

Weiterhin würde ich mich wundern, wenn wir einen der kürzesten Bärenmärkte aller Zeiten erlebt hätten.

und hier Konjunkturpacket auf chinesische Art

[...]
It would be normally be surprising that loans are expanding so rapidly (we have already increased net new lending in the first quarter of 2009 by more than all of last year’s loan increase) while whole sectors of the economy are struggling to find financing, but my friend Dan Rosen sent me a Bloomberg article from Friday with a line which he found very funny and a tad startling. According to the article:


The largest borrower in the quarter was government-owned China Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC, the nation’s biggest aerospace company. The Beijing-based company received 236 billion yuan from 11 Chinese banks, including ICBC, China Construction and Bank of China. It won another 100 billion yuan of credit from Export-Import Bank of China on April 16, without specifying how the money will be used.


AVIC General Manager Lin Zuoming said in an April 16 interview with Beijing-based newspaper Economic Observer that his biggest worry is how to allocate the borrowings to increase returns.


It’s the last line, of course, which Dan marked out. The largest single borrower, it turns out, has taken out around $35 billion in loans but doesn’t seem terribly certain about why he borrowed the money. I don’t want to read too much into a single throwaway line, but it is certainly consistent with all the stories and rumors we hear about banks lending not because borrowers need money for specific (hopefully profitable) projects but rather because they want to show loan growth, and the safest way to do that is to convince large companies and projects with explicit or implicit government guarantees to borrow massive amounts of money. Of course it helps that managers aren’t terribly concerned about creating value for their shareholders, but this is almost certainly a recipe for future growth in NPLs. (NPL=non performing loan)

[...]
http://mpettis.com/2009/05/distortions-in-the-chinese-lendin… (<--von heute)

[Gaigelhuber]

Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce.

Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain.

Gold’s Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market.
What if gold in this bull market repeats the percentage rise in the last bull market?
In the 1970s gold rose from $35 to $850, a factor of 24.28.
Our low in 2001 was $255.95.
Multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.

U.S. Gold Holdings to Money Supply:
The M1 money supply consists of currency and checkable deposits.
The U.S. government currently holds 286.9 million ounces of gold.
If the government were to make each dollar redeemable by the amount of gold it possesses, we’d arrive at the following price for gold: $1.569 trillion ÷ 286.9 million oz. = $5,468.80 per ounce

Gold/Dow Ratio:
The ratio was about “1” when gold peaked in 1980, meaning the Dow and gold were the same price.
To restore that relationship at today’s stock prices would mean when the Dow is at 6,626, gold should be at $6,626/oz.
Of course, we think it likely that the Dow will get a lot lower before gold peaks.
But even if it drops all the way to 4,000, that would imply a gold price of $4,000/oz.

All the Money in the World vs. Gold Reserves:
If the public eventually sees the paper game being run by the central banks for what it is, governments will be forced to back their currencies with gold (and perhaps other tangibles like silver).
Assuming they had to go into the market and buy the gold needed to restore faith in their currencies, the numbers might look like this:
Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion, divided by 929.6 million ounces total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency = $5,246 gold price.

U.S. Gold Holdings to U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit:
The size of a country's deficit or surplus would be of no consequence if all currencies were convertible into a fixed amount of gold.
However, the dollar is increasingly considered a hot potato, and when the trade balance reverses, as it must, dollars will flow back to the U.S. and fuel domestic price inflation.
Based on the cumulative trade deficit of $9.13 trillion
(up from $6 trillion since June ‘07!)
and U.S. gold holdings of 286.9 million ounces, the corresponding price of gold would be $31,822 per ounce.

U.S. Gold to U.S. Government Liabilities:
Finally, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) calculates an income statement and balance sheet for the U.S. government.
As you’d suspect, it is dominated by future liabilities for Medicare and Social Security.
What if they had to be backed by the supply of gold? Official U.S. government liabilities now ring in at an incredible $55.2 trillion.
To make good on that would require a $192,401 gold price.

No, we don’t think gold will hit $192,000 or even $32,000.
And there really isn’t any surefire way to forecast the eventual high.
But it’s clear that every weathervane is pointing in the same direction.

So, yes, gold isn’t going to $2,000; it’s going higher.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/0501.htm…

[Hoschie]

Folgendes hat mir bei dem Artikel gefallen, was deine Frage hoffentlich beantwortet:
The last (cautionary) word goes to Richard Russell, writer of the Dow Theory Letters newsletter: “On the bear market decline, we never saw the great values that usually appear at major bear market bottoms. The ‘great value’ area is the place where I would normally suggest that investors load up with blue-chip stocks. For this reason, I would prefer waiting out this rally or making a limited trade with DIAs [Dow Diamonds ETF] with stops. I continue to believe this is an upward correction in an ongoing primary bear market. I note that many observers are saying that ‘this is a market that won’t go down’. Believe me, all markets go up - and all markets go down.”
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/

[Hoschie]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.086.240 von EuerGeldWirdMeinGeld am 03.05.09 20:52:38

Warum "darf" der Markt nicht beispielsweise bis in den Juli hinein seitwärts konsolidieren, d.h. hohe Vola als Ausdruck der aktuellen Unsicherheit mit Ausbildung eines Keils?



Natürlich kann es auch genauso seitwärts konsolidieren, denn die EW-Analyse ist ja keine Glaskugel, die dir den genauen Kursverlauf vorhersagt. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist gross, dass der DAX so verläuft. Denn es gibt einige Argumente dafür:
Gewinnmitnahmen ( Wir sind vom Tief im DAX jetzt knapp 32% gestiegen, dass ist nicht mal fundamental untermauert).
Insider-Verkäufe bei S&P 500 Unternehmen
Hohe Bewertung der Aktien.
Ergebniss zum Stresstest der Banken könnten in die eine oder andere Richtung führen
Auch das Argument Sell in May and Go Away? kann diesen Verlauf des Charts bestätigen. Ein guter Artikel, was mir sehr gefallen hat ist:
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/

[timotei68]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.086.123 von DerStrohmann am 03.05.09 20:22:29

hi Strohmann
womit rechnest du denn ab morgen früh???