ELAN - 1.000 % for the LONG-time - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 38)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.574.635 von Poppholz am 07.03.08 07:45:47

....aber unglaublich,oder????

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.575.663 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 09:56:23

das auf jeden Fall

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.575.663 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 09:56:23

Momentan könnte man meinen, das Tysabri vom Msrkt genommen wurde bei dem Kursverlauf

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.575.683 von Poppholz am 07.03.08 09:58:31

....und nicht ,dass es gerade auf dem Weg ist,die NR1 im Ms Markt zu werden.....

aber bei dem Markt verkaufen Leute eben ALLES....mache gleich den Compi aus---abwarten + Tee trinken....


ELN msg # 203814 3/6/2008 6:01:28 PM
By: Creedster_99

Everyone take a breath!

1. The world as we know it isn't ending...

2. The EU will not "allow" the Euro-dollar exchange to continue at this level...The EU exports are getting killed on the exchange rate

3. So what if oil is $120/barrell? Yes, it will affect the expenses of shipping/transportation companies but that's just the cost of living...going up..get used to it...

4. Gas at $4/gallon soon? Once again, so what....maybe Americans need to see what the rest of the world has been paying for the past 10 years $6/gallon!!! Maybe this will encourage people to second think their SUV's and gas guzzlers..that's probably a good thing!

5. Recession? Depression? Recession is when your neighbor loses his job...Depression is when you lose YOUR job! You decide which you fit into...

6. Inflation? kind of goes along with the weakened dollar...push...

7. Did i mention that Tysabrisales are increasing daily?

8. If the price of Elan is very much tied to the underlying market right now...though it probably shouldn't be! If this market really gets scared and we see a huge dip to 9500 , yes, you could see Elan at $15...

BUT IT WILL BE THE FLIPPING BUY OF THE CENTURY!!!!

There are only so many more months before we find out if AAB works and how well....We may also see news from Transition Therapeuticsin the next 6 mos! (ELND-005)...They are going only for "symptomatic relief" of AD , NOT "disease modifying" label...which means that the bar for success is much lower...I've heard that the effects can be seen in DAYS!!! This is currently in PII trials and they have the go-ahead from the FDA to proceed immediately to PIII trials if the "signals" are seen....This will be up to the FDA and Transition and Elan but don't sell this compound short too soon!!!

The world may look like it's turning to dog-do-do but people are still getting AD and MS daily and need treatment and HOPE! You've got a winner with Elan....The share price may go lower in the next few weeks but with todays's 91c drop on such miserably low volume...I don't think it's anything Elan related.

Sit tight, buy if you dare...but don't get spooked...it's not the right time to panic, IMO

I'm encouraged...hope you are coming along for the ride with me!

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.575.683 von Poppholz am 07.03.08 09:58:31

kommt jetzt auch nur die kleinste neg.(Pimmel-)Meldung dann sehen wir eln auf neuem Einstiegskurs bei 11 !!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.576.132 von roboty am 07.03.08 10:41:23

bei negativen News steigen wir eher wieder.

Schau die News und die Einschätzungen der letzten Wochen an.

Ein solcher Kursverlauf ist nur bei ELAN möglich

[bernie55]

@ Elanites und Elaniacs - LONGIES


.......nach langer Zeit mal wieder im WO und was macht unser Baby ????

...durchpusten und Luftholen für den ultimativen Sprung ins All ????

..was sollen wir tun ?????

WARTEN AUF die AAB-001 NEWS !!!!!


.....so und jetzt muss ich wieder arbeiten......haut rein, lasst euch nicht kirre machen.....bis Montag....

Grüße bernie55

[posimist]

Bernie, habe verstanden!
posimist

[Holgus]

Jetzt weiß ich auch was PML bedeutet ...

Pimmel mit Ladehemmung

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.577.994 von Holgus am 07.03.08 13:27:40

.....bitte schick das an www.elan.com--dann haben sie dort nie mehr Probleme (gibt ja viagra--könnte Elan dann ja mitvermarkten)


Bin stolz auf uns Threadteilnehmer hier;scheint sich niemand abschütteln zu lassen.......WIR SIND EBEN:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.578.289 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 13:55:43

www.elan.com

Nix, dieser Zweigstelle der IRA werd ich ausser `nem CollotowMoptail gar nix schicken

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.577.994 von Holgus am 07.03.08 13:27:40

Apropos Ladehemmung, jetzt weiß ich auch, warum Poppi in Thailand ist

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.578.482 von Holgus am 07.03.08 14:13:27

....und wer soll uns dann noch die tollen AAB_001 Ergebnisse verkünden die uns doch letztendlich reich machen....wenn Du sie alle vermollococktailst?????:O:O:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.578.586 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 14:21:03

Ich cockto vermollo di Kelly di bumm


Das war Anarchistendeutsch

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.578.642 von Holgus am 07.03.08 14:25:29

[Holgus]

Jetzt weiß ich, warum alle Menschen im Moment aus Aktien rausgehn ... sie machen das Kapital frei, um alles Geld demnächst in Elan reinzupumpen.

Dann gehen wir über Nacht von 20 auf 500 Dollar ... flöt


Geht jemand mit ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.579.614 von Holgus am 07.03.08 15:31:59

GUUUUUUUUUUUUUTE Idee;hat sich bisher bloss noch nicht ganz herumgesprochen....20,34$---6 Dollar herunter vom High...WHY?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.579.794 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 15:44:06

WHY?


Erwähnte ich doch bereits ...

Weil Elmer immer sagte "Wie go heier ... tschiers"

Oder meinte er "Wie go heia" ?

[Holgus]

Die 25er Puts sind im März relativ stark.

Sollten sie den Kurs so weit unten halten, dann zahlen die Banken aber auch eine ganz schöne Zeche.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.579.934 von Holgus am 07.03.08 15:53:00

unter 20 Dollar....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.579.963 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 15:54:53

Nosta hatte es neulich so schön beschrieben ...

"Elan ist eine Scheiß-Aktie"

Wie recht er doch hat, wie recht Roboty mit seinen 19 Dollar hatte.
Und wie Recht ich doch hatte, als ich bei meinem Ankauf bei 26,20 sagte "jetzt wird der Kurs absemmeln".

Ist das geil ... von Elan immer wieder so angeschissen zu werden


Eines weiß ich genau, sollte sich AAB dieses Jahr als heiße Luft entpuppen, hat Kelly Arsch mindestens `nen Genickschuß verdient.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.579.963 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 15:54:53

bin gespannt wann sie mit dem Kursdruckerei aufhören

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.083 von Holgus am 07.03.08 16:03:57

Du kannst doch die Bid und Asks sehen....schreib mal was darüber in welchem Verhältnis sie stehen bitte---bei level2quotes.com sind nicht alle Trades zu sehen------????

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.198 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 16:11:51

probiere mal damit

http://datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/JArcaBook.php?Sy…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.278 von surga am 07.03.08 16:17:20

das ist dasselbe wie level2.....trotzdem DANKE!Hast Du noch alle Deine potentielle Elan-Schätze??Gruss!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.315 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 16:20:06

ja, habe ich noch, und zwar noch kein Stück verkauft, was ich schon seit paar Tagen bereue
So ist halt Börse
Ich hoffe, dass wir spätestens Anfang April wieder hoch geht. Wann genau kommt AAB-001 NEWS?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.374 von surga am 07.03.08 16:24:03

Elan bekommt sie im April und will sie im Juli veröffentlichen---ich denke aber, dass im April was durchsickert im IV Board.Da gibt es ja ein paar Leute,die dem Management sehr nahe stehen....(Lippoghost z.B.)

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.466 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 16:30:37

ahhhhhhhha, dann sehen wir mal, was daraus wird

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.198 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 16:11:51

Bid und Asks sehen

Ich hab meinen Trader schon seit `ner Woche nicht mehr gestartet.
Diesen Salat sich in Echtzeit anzusehn ist pervers ... ne ne ... das tu ich mir nicht mehr an.

Ausserdem, was bringt einem das Bid und Ask ... nüscht ... ist eh alles Makulatur im Moment.

Ich geh jetzt Tenis spielen.



Huiii ... ich kauf mir ein P

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.517 von Holgus am 07.03.08 16:34:33

...besser ein "n"......Kannst Du mir nicht so´n Link davon schicken????ICH gehe NICHT Tennis spielen + würde mir das SOO gerne angucken (Nee,nicht Dein Tennis,sonern das Geflimmer der Zahlen...)

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.580.617 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 16:43:33

Birgit, meine Trader ist eine auf dem Rechner installierte Software.
Da geht nix mit Link oder so.

Andere Quellen hab ich auch nicht.

Wer sprach denn hier von Tennis ... is ja langweilich

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.581.013 von Holgus am 07.03.08 17:17:09

....so schade...

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.581.049 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 17:19:55

....so schade...

Du hast getrunken, odäär ??

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.581.123 von Holgus am 07.03.08 17:25:13

noch nicht......

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

wenn´s dann ganz schlimm wird...http://youtube.com/watch?v=4HhUT1Nu2jw

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.581.123 von Holgus am 07.03.08 17:25:13

das macht ganz blümli---jetzt hab ich mir TY aufs Brot gedrückt...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.581.878 von roboty am 07.03.08 18:33:06

was bitte ist blümli???????????????????????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

SONG

ELN msg # 204215 3/7/2008 1:23:03 PM
By: doodah95

On a melancholy day....a melancholy song: OH KELLY BOY

OH KELLY BOY (sung to the tune of perennial St. Paddy's favorite "Oh Danny Boy")

Oh Kelly boy, the margin calls are calling
I'm dripping sweat from head down my backside
Our pipeline's full, yet Elan's stock keeps falling
'Tis slow, 'tis slow the train that I must ride.

Will come it back when summer warms my body
Or will it wait til my hair's white as snow
'Tis I'll be on a throne or in the potty
Oh Kelly boy, Oh Kelly boy this share price blows.

Yet here they come, those anal-ysts a-lying
Boy are they dumb, as dumb as rocks can be
That genius Feuerstein's still trying
To comprehend a test called NTB.

Please let me hear some sweet words 'bout Tysabri
Please let me see a kind PR or three
Then I will know that truly you do love me
And I will bide 'til we hit 63.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.582.384 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 19:25:00

jeden Tag anzusehen, wie unser Elan pro Tag 1 $ den Wert verliert ist schon sehr bitter
BIIB im Vergleich ist sehr stabil

ELAN BIIB

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.382 von surga am 07.03.08 20:47:35

...ich bin auch irgendwie fassungslos---vielleicht müssen Hedge funds liquidieren wegen ihrer Marktschwierigkeiten..

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.553 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 20:59:32

Aber warum nur bei ELAN?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.553 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 20:59:32

es ist ein richtiger Ausverkauf heute

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.704 von surga am 07.03.08 21:09:16

stimmt....ich gucke nicht mehr in mein Depot....

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.825 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 21:18:17

ich habe grad in mein Depot geckukt, zum Heulen ist es, ehrlich
Irgendwie müssen wir uns absichern, damit besser schlaffen können

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.825 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 21:18:17

NASDAQ dreht langsam in PLUS, ich hoffe, Dow macht es das gleiche, damit es einbischen sich beruhig

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.891 von surga am 07.03.08 21:23:35

NASDAQ DOW

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.855 von surga am 07.03.08 21:20:41

....das Doofe ist,dass man immer übers absichern nachdenkt wenn es schon zu spät ist.....und das Problem ist,dass wir ja wissen dass es für den Abverkauf KEINEN!!!!elanspezifischen Grund gibt und wir das GROSSE Potential der Forschung dieser Firma kennen----WIE sollte man da verkaufen können??? MIST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.968 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 21:29:27

ja, so war es auch bei mir gewesen!
Deswegen habe ich auch nicht bei 26$ verkauft! Wenn der Kurs runtergeht, geht es unheimlich schnell. Rauf geht es sehr langsam
Trotzdem, für die Zukunft müssen wir zu mindest ein Teil was wir gewonnen haben absichern. Das hat mir bei DNDN geholfen!
Wir müssen halt aus dem Fehler lernen und immer wieder lernen.
Irgendwan, hoffe ich, das wir doch mal in der Lage, in dem richtigen Zeitpunkt den VERKAUF-Knopfdruck betätigen zu können. Nur so können wir unser Gewinne behalten und auch von den Gewinnen das Leben geniessen

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.583.968 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.03.08 21:29:27

so, hoffentlich nächste Woche hört endlich auf mit dem Abverkaufen:O
Ein schönes Wochenende

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.584.105 von surga am 07.03.08 21:41:03

Du hast sehr Recht SURGA!!Im normalen Leben ist Beständigkeit eine wichtige Qualität---an der Börse nicht immer......Ich HOFFE auch dass wir das Gap geschlossen haben und der Ausverkauf endet-----aber fassungslos bin ich auch.....Dir + Allen Elanians ein erholsames WE

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 204406 3/7/2008 4:35:31 PM
By: liposghost

Re: AAB-001 TOP-LINE DATA IN APRIL 2008!! Lipo

until this week i believed elan had no intention of releasing the topline before late june or july.
Now i think before the AGM is possible.
as a late breaker for AAN; i don't think they can put it together that fast.
As you know KM has not let the market influence his decisions in the past, but my gut tells me he may think we are due a bone, with some meat on it even.
have i ever told you that at times i find thinking and wishing to be indistinguiseable?

[Holgus]

AP

ADRs in Focus: Elan Sinks
Friday March 7, 4:37 pm ET

Elan Shares Continue Sliding As Tysabri Side Effect Concerns Persist; Biogen Stock Slips

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Irish drug maker Elan Corp. PLC fell Friday, finishing a difficult week on concerns about the safety of its best-selling drug, Tysabri.

Elan shares came under pressure last week after the company posted a letter to the Web site of the Food and Drug Administration warning that its drug Tysabri has caused liver damage to some patients, and advising doctors to stop using the drug on any patients showing symptoms of liver injury.


Und Kelly diese Drecksau macht nichts dagegen, keine Pressemitteilung oder ähnliches ... es ist einfach nicht zu fassen. Es ist mir dabei scheißegal ob Biib für die PR zuständig ist.

Hauptsache seine Bankenkumpels können sich günstig eindecken. Unfassbar.

Hoffentlich wird dieses medienscheue Arschgesicht bald abgelöst.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 204412 3/7/2008 4:45:15 PM
By: elnanonymous

2008 Catalysts from CSFB report...

probably already posted, but on a day like today, some may need to be reminded.

Figure 6: Elan catalysts
Timing Event
Q1 2008 Gamma secretase inhibitor (Elan and Eli Lilly) phase III starts
12–19 April 2008 American Academy of Neurology—Tysabri safety update
7 May 2008 Elan investor day
End May 2008 Elan AGM
May 2008 Q1 results
June/July 2008 Two-year anniversary of Tysabri re-introduction
7–11 June 2008 18th meeting of the European Neurological Society. Nice, France
July 2008 Q2 results
Mid-2008 Top-line data phase II data for AAB-001
26–31 July 2008 Full phase II data for AAB-001 targeted for International
Conference on Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Disorders (ICAD).
Chicago
26–31 July 2008 Phase II data for LY450139 (Lilly's Gamma secrease) at ICAD
17–20 September 2008 ECTRIMS—Tysabri safety update
October 2008 Q3 results
23–26 October 2008 2nd World Congress on Controversies in Neurology. Athens
H2 2008 ELND-005: start phase II on early Alzheimer’s patients (MCI)
2008 Tysabri to start phase I in multiple myeloma
2008 Gamma secretase inhibitor (internal) phase I starts
2008 AAB-001 subcutaneous version to move into phase II
2008 AAB-002 phase I study in Alzheimer’s disease to start
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 204456 3/7/2008 6:56:05 PM
By: liposghost

i will stake my credibility (what ever that may be)

that
the FUD, rumors and writings of the past week are false or misleading
all things are on track as they have been, no change
a pleasant suprise or two are on the way
if i am wrong send crow, plucked and gutted please
the haint

[Poppholz]

beim jetzigen Kurs denke ich über CALL-Optionen nach.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 204555 3/8/2008 7:28:38 AM
By: oldpfizerdog

Interesting week....

CSFB starts coverage at outperform with a 30 tag. GS adds more ELN to their portfolio. I read on my merrill lynch homepage about the biggest drug potential in a long time coming from ELN/WYE. I watched all the gains from last may (when I took my 401K and went all in) go back to even at 19.58.
What's changed? We have added more patients to Ty for MS and now Chrones. We have another nano approval. We have large respected investment firms using words like huge and transformational to describe our potential. We get info from good people on this board of folks walking again on ty, People remembering again on AAB.
I remember KM saying that Elan would not respond to FUD unless there was actually a problem. (can't remember exactly when) We will probably see a big increase in inst. ownership at the next reporting cycle.(I believe watching the tape this week you could see the big buys then the 100-1000 sells back down.)
Continue to hold-We have several news events form mid march until may 7. Patience...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Für Holgus.....

over on Yahoo teadowner posted this.
My fellow Longs... 8-Mar-08 12:20 am The latest Market meltdown is a direct result of the subprime/mortgage mess, IMHO.

“3/7/2008 AP…LONDON (AP) -- Lenders to Carlyle Capital Corp. Ltd. have begun to liquidate securities held in its $21.7 billion portfolio.”

Who is responsible for the soon-to-be $21.7B disappearing act?

The greedy borrowers? No. The Fed Head? No. The Real Estate bubble? No. The Queen? No. Kelly Martin? Hell no!

Look no further than the following list of manipulators that are/were associated with Carlyle. Take a deep breath to control your anger after reading the horror, THE HORROR:

James Baker III, former United States Secretary of State under George H. W. Bush, Carlyle Senior Counselor, served in this capacity from 1993 to 2005.

George H. W. Bush, former U.S. President, Senior Advisor to the Carlyle Asia Advisory Board from April 1998 to October 2003.

George W. Bush, current U.S. President. Was appointed in 1990 to the Board of Directors of one of Carlyle's first acquisitions, an airline food business called Caterair. He left the board in 1992.

Frank C. Carlucci, former United States Secretary of Defense. Carlyle Chairman and Chairman Emeritus from 1989 to 2005.

Richard Darman, former Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Senior Managing Director of The Carlyle Group from 1993 to the present

Allan Gotlieb, Canadian ambassador to the United States (1981-89) and member of Carlyle's Canadian advisory board.

Liu Hong-Ru, former chairman of China's Securities Regulatory Commission.

William Kennard, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) under President Bill Clinton. Carlyle's Managing Director in the Telecommunications & Media Group from 2001 to the present.

Arthur Levitt, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under President Bill Clinton, Carlyle Senior Advisor from 2001 to the present

Peter Lougheed - Premier of Alberta (1971-85)

John Major, former British Prime Minister, Chairman, Carlyle Europe from 2002 until 2005

Frank McKenna, Canadian ambassador to the United States and former member of Carlyle's Canadian advisory board

Mack McLarty, White House Chief of Staff under President Bill Clinton, President of Kissinger McLarty Associates, Carlyle Senior Advisor from 2003 to the present

Anand Panyarachun, former Prime Minister of Thailand (twice), former member of the Carlyle Asia Advisory Board until the board was disbanded in 2004

Randal K. Quarles, former Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury under President George W. Bush, now a Carlyle managing director

Fidel V. Ramos, former president of the Philippines, Carlyle Asia Advisor Board Member until the board was disbanded in 2004

Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed Prime Minister of Thailand, former member of board, who resigned on taking office in 2001

Luis Téllez Kuenzler, Mexican economist, current Secretary of Communications and Transportation under the Calderon administration and former Secretary of Energy under the Zedillo administration.

Norman Pearlstine - editor-in-chief of Time (1995-2005)

Someone took the money and ran. Carlyle is only a tip of the financial iceberg which might implicate more Presidents, Prime Ministers, Kings, Queens, Governors, Premiers, Chairmans, FDA chief and other “crooks”. When the Chairman of the SEC is currently neck-deep in the Carlyle hedge fund mess, do you honestly think that he will help the small investors who complain about naked shorting? IMHO, the CEO of Overstock.com is wasting his time fighting these manipulators that include the SEC. That’s the current problem with the Market that sorely needs credibility and integrity.

As battle-harden Elan investors, we have come so far and this close to the coming reward in July. Selling now due to these ruthless manipulations is insane.

Take a deep breath and breathe out slowly.

Or better yet…

Have some great sex and relax.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Das finde ich ja so KLASSE----die Leberschäden von Mslern auf Tysabri sind vergleichbar hoch wie der auf PLACEBO

DAS SAGT ECHT ALLES ÜBER DIE KAMPAGNE.....

Clinical trials between Tysabri and PLACEBO have comparable amount of liver injury
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajsqdrj0…

Amazing we get blasted on "placebo" like incidence of liver injury.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

http://www.webmd.com/video/alzheimers-study

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.588.427 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 08.03.08 17:53:41

gut birgit, mal schauen wie sich der kurs in der nächsten woche entwickelt. meine devise, immer bares in der hinterhand halten.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.592.040 von GuHu1 am 09.03.08 14:56:46

also ich habe kein Geld mehr in der Hinterhand.

Das ist alles schon in Aktien gelaufen in den letzten Wochen, da weitere Kurseinbrüche (wie bei Elan) nicht wahrscheinlich gewesen sind, auf jeden Fall nicht in dem Ausmass.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.592.168 von Poppholz am 09.03.08 15:37:14

aber Gewinne und Verluste sind ja erst vorhanden, wenn man Sie ralisiert hat.

Da ich keine Aktien verkaufe, bzw. damit noch 2 - 3 Jahre warten werde, brauche ich mir auch überhaupt nicht den Kopf zerbrechen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.592.183 von Poppholz am 09.03.08 15:39:58

....schön gesagt Poppi---und Du hast einach recht!

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.592.183 von Poppholz am 09.03.08 15:39:58

poppi das sehe ich grundsätzlich genauso, aber gerade bei den bios gehe ich nie voll rein, ich halte immer 40 - 50% zurück um was nachzuschieben.
dazu müssen aber mehrere faktoren eintreten wie jetzt bei ELN.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.593.577 von GuHu1 am 09.03.08 22:21:29

....hätte ich auch nichts gegen,die jetzt noch zu haben....SUPERCHANCE
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.593.577 von GuHu1 am 09.03.08 22:21:29

habe normalerweise auch immer noch ein wenig Geld in der Hinterhand, um noch einzukaufen, wenn der Kurs weiter nachgibt.

Aber in den letzten Wochen sind die Kurse (bin ja nicht nur in Elan investiert) so stark nach unten gegangen, dass ich meine Reserven aufgebraucht habe.

In den nächsten Wochen wird wahrscheinlich auch kein neues Geld kommen, auf jeden Fall kein Geld, dass nicht eigentlich für andere Dinge geplant ist.



Wir werden sehen.

Ärgerlich ist es auf jeden Fall, denn es bringt nun einmal wesentlich mehr "Spass" auf ein dunkelgrünes Depot zu schauen, als auf die dunkelroten Veränderungen zum Vortag bzw. zum Vormonat.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.594.025 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 06:46:16

selbst wenn ich jetzt keine Aktien verkaufen würde (egal wo der Kurs steht), ist das Gefühl dass wenn ich jetzt verkaufen würde ich einen entsprechenden Gewinn einstreichen könnte.

Na ja.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.594.026 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 06:48:04

mit meinem vorherigen Posting wollte ich ausdrücken, dass dies ein gutes Gefühl wäre.

(Ist irgendwie im Satzbau verloren gegangen)

[Poppholz]

Nachbörslich ist der Kurs ja noch über $20,- gestiegen.http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.594.768 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 09:47:25

scheint in Europa aber niemanden zu interessieren.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

unglaublich....meh fällt mir dazu nicht ein!

[Holgus]

Sagkt mal Leute was ist da bloß los ?

Da denkt man die 20ig haben sie geknackt und nun gehts bestimmt wieder aufwärts, aber nix ist ... das darf alles nicht wahr sein.

Und so langsam verwette ich meinen Arsch, dass bei dieser ganzen Alzheimerscheiße nichts bei rumkommt.

[Holgus]

Wenn Fidelity und Wellington letzte Woche massiv Elan abgestoßen haben, dann kann da natürlich wirklich was im Busch sein.

Wir erfahren das natürlich erst dann, wenn der Kurs richtig weit unten ist ... würg

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.597.861 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 15:08:08

Aktuelle Wechselkurse:
1 EUR = 1,53470 USD (10.03., 15:24)

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.171 von bernie55 am 10.03.08 15:31:45

Aktuelle Wechselkurse

Toll, allein das beschert mir schon einen deftigen Verlust.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.125 von Holgus am 10.03.08 15:28:41

Ich glaube das NICHT---Sie haben auch nicht MASSIV verkauft.Ich glaube ,es ist ein Zusammentreffen ganz unglücklicher Bedingungen im Markt und Attacken der Konkurrenz-----ohne Relevanz zum Kerngeschäft von Elan---und Biogen kann sich rächen für KM´s Unterstützungsversuch Biogen zu verkaufen....ABER NIE HÄTTE ICH GEGLAUBT DASS ES SO WEIT RUNTER GEHT:::NIE!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.125 von Holgus am 10.03.08 15:28:41

Wenn Fidelity und Wellington letzte Woche massiv Elan abgestoßen haben, dann kann da natürlich wirklich was im Busch sein.



Sind das die 19.773559 - Volumina vom 27.02.08 ????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

und ich finde,in so einer Situation und nach der Geschichte die Elan hinter sich hat DARF EIN CEO NICHT TATENLOS ZUSEHEN.Das gehört auch zum Management dazu....aber wen interessiert das?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.267 von bernie55 am 10.03.08 15:38:43

Keine Ahnung....aber Fidelity hat nur marginal verkauft.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.299 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 15:41:05

marginal ?

Nasal ??

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.364 von Holgus am 10.03.08 15:46:41

lasst uns doch mal zu diesem Aktionärstreffen fahren-Boston- und Kelly in den AR..H (SORRY::treten!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.279 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 15:39:41

... DARF EIN CEO NICHT TATENLOS ZUSEHEN

Warum ? Wenn Du einen Ceo hast, der nur an seine Banker- und Fondskumpel denkt, dann "darf" er das.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.440 von Holgus am 10.03.08 15:52:13

meinst Du die planen eine "Kleinaktionärfreie Zone"????:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.498 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 15:57:15

Weiß nich was die planen.

Aber eines ist klar, solch ein Kursverfall (und es sind von dem High im Februar gesehn jetzt schon satte 8 Dollar) kommt nur durch massive Verkäufe zustande.
Wer hat denn die letzten 8 Tage so massiv verkauft ? Die Kleinanleger ? Solche riesen Tagesstückzahlen ?

Kann ich mir nicht vorstellen.

[Holgus]

Oh, Onkel Elmer ist gar mal wieder auf der Bildfläche erschienen.

Wie go heier ... tschiers


Immer diese Durchhalteparolen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.573 von Holgus am 10.03.08 16:02:35

Die auch--nämlich die auf Kredit gekauft haben und nachschiessen oder verkaufen mussten oder SL gesetzt haben und die HedgeFonds die auch auf Kredit spekuliert haben und jetzt Liquidität schaffen müssen und unsere KURZEN Freunde ,die sich bekanntlich die Aktien leihem UM SIE ZU VERKAUFEN----Jim Mullen + Teva +Jim Cramer lachen sich jetzt eins ins Fäusschen und wir gucken BLÖD!Zumindest kurzfristig!

[HeinzBork]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.598.573 von Holgus am 10.03.08 16:02:35

Hat zwar nix direkt mit ELN zu tun aber lest selbst.

Ich glaube, dass einiges an Kurssteigerung durch Heuzeckenkäufe stattgefunden hat, jetzt brennt bei denen die Lampe und sie müssen schnell liquidieren.

Wirtschaftsnews - von heute 09:49
Rohstoffwerte auf dem Weg zu Bewertungsaufschlägen?


Stuttgart (www.rohstoffe-go.de) Die Kreditkrise frisst sich wie ein Virus immer tiefer ins System. Bereits in Toronto auf der PDAC hörten wir von Gerüchten, dass Citigroup und UBS mindestens weitere je zweistellige Milliardenabschreibungen drohen. Einige Brancheninsider rechnen gar mit 100 Milliarden Abschreibungsbedarf alleine bei diesen beiden Giganten. Am Freitag wurde bekannt, dass die FED alleine im Märze weitere 200 Milliarden USD Liquidität in den Bankensektor gepumpt hat. Die Märkte rechnen inzwischen mit einer weiteren Zinssenkung von mindestens 0,75%. Selbst ein Zinssatz wie im „Greenspan-Zinstief“ bei 1% ist für dieses Jahr nicht mehr auszuschließen. Es wird immer klarer, dass das „Auf-Zeit-Spielen“ der Banken bisher nichts genützt hat – die bisherigen Rettungsversuche der Notenbanken haben wenig genützt. Obwohl die US-Zinsen seit Herbst um 2,25 % gesenkt wurden, haben sich die Zinssätze an den Geldmärkten nicht nach unten bewegt. Auch auf dem Hypothekenmarkt steigen die Zinsen anstatt zu fallen. Hinzu kommt, dass nun viele Hedge Fonds Probleme bekommen. Am Freitag wurde bekannt, dass ein börsennotierter Fonds der Carlyle-Gruppe vom Handel ausgesetzt wurde, da dieser von Banken geforderte zusätzliche Sicherheiten nicht aufbringen konnte. Insgesamt investiert Carlyle mit nur circa einem 30-stel (!) Eigenkapital. Dass so etwas überhaupt möglich ist und von den Banken erlaubt wird, ist unserer Meinung nach eine der größten Probleme für die Lösung der Kreditkrise und könnte den Zusammenbruch vieler Teile des Finanzsystems (vor allem der Teile, die auf extreme Anteile Fremdkapital setzten, wie eben Hedge Fonds und Private Equity) beschleunigen. Da zu den Kreditgebern alle großen Banken zählen, können diese in weitere Eigenkapitalprobleme kommen. Das „Handelsblatt“ von heute sieht diesbezüglich einen neuen Teufelskreis am Himmel. Wir hatten Ihnen diese Problematik der hohen Kreditaufnahme bei „Heuschrecken“ des Öfteren als nicht nachhaltiges Investmentverhalten mit hohen Risiken in diesem Börsenbrief erläutert. Auf keinen Fall sollte man als Privatanleger diesen „Vorbildern“ folgen und ebenfalls auf Kredit spekulieren! Es ist daher mit weiteren (eventuell sogar empfindlichen) Abschreibungen bei Banken, Versicherungen und Finanztiteln zu rechnen. Wir würden daher alle Titel, die irgend etwas mit Finanzen (insbesondere die Großbanken) zu tun haben, weiter meiden! Die kurzfristige Spekulation auf eine Erholung der Banktitel, die wir zuletzt spielten, klappte zum Teil ganz gut. Doch da die Risiken nun anscheinend wieder neue Dimensionen annehmen, dürfte es besser sein, zunächst an der Seitenlinie zu warten. Dass irgendetwas größerer im „Busch“ ist, zeigt auch die Schwäche des Goldpreises seit Freitag. Es scheint, als ob wieder einmal Carrytrades platzen (der starke Yen gegen den USD spricht ebenfalls dafür!) und sämtliche Spekulanten quer durch alle Anlageklassen Positionen glatt stellen müssen. Relative Stärke jedoch weiter bei den Rohstoffpreisen. Öl weiter deutlich über der 100er USD-Marke, Kupfer weiter am Allzeithoch, Nickel, Zink sehen „nach oben“ aus, Gold und Silber konsolidieren auf hohem Niveau. Wenn sowohl bei Finanzwerten, als auch in vielen weiteren Branchen in diesem Jahr keine Gewinnsteigerungen (und wohl auch keine Gewinne) zu erwarten sind, dürften immer mehr Investoren merken, dass im Rohstoffsektor noch relativ hohe und planbare Gewinne (trotz US-Rezession) winken und diese eben nicht extrem zyklisch sind. Fazit: Rohstoffwerte sind auf dem Weg zu aufmerksam Wachstumswerten, die Bewertungsaufschläge verdient haben, während Finanztitel zu extremem Zyklikern werden, die Risikoabschläge verdienen!

[Holgus]

Author: elanpissant
In response to msg 205117 by elmer92692

elmer
when you talk like that you make my nipples hard.


Das geht Birgit auch immer so ... *flöt*

[Holgus]

Wie sagte schon Andreas Kotzolani ?

"Das Geld ist nicht weg, nur hat es jetzt jemand anderes"


Der liegt jetzt mumifiziert in seiner Kiste und reibt sich genüßlich die Eier.

[Poppholz]

der Kursverlauf geht ja gar nicht.

Ich werde wohl früher aus Thailand abreisen müssen, damit wir nicht noch unter die $10,- fallen.

[Poppholz]

bei den aktuellen Kursen komme ich durch meine Nachkäufe bald in den ROTEN BEREICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.002 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 16:39:16

tja,was lernen wir daraus? Wahrscheinlich sind wir nicht abgefuckt oder clever genug für das Börsenspiel...und die Netten zahlen die Zeche der Skrupellosen------aber das wussten wir schon vorher,oder??

Bin zienmlich gefrustet---aber STUR:ich nix verkoofen.....wer zuletzt lacht.......................................................--das sid WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIR!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.069 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 16:44:54

Dein Wort in Gottes Ohr.

Einen solchen Kursverlauf hätte ich nie für möglich gehalten.

Der totale Wahnsinn und von ELAN ist mal wieder überhaupt nichts zu hören.

Die stecken doch alle unter einer Decke.

[Poppholz]

am 14. September war der Boden bei $17,71.

Vielleicht soll der wieder getestet werden.

Totaler Wahnsinn.

Wenn das so weiter geht, dann kaufe ich wirklich noch Optionen.

[Poppholz]

der Rest meines Depots ist aber auch im Eimer.

[Poppholz]

mein schönes Spielgeld

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.328 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 17:03:55

und da stand der Dollar noch bei 1,38 im Verhältnis zum Euro.

(und das ist die Sache die momentan ärgerlich ist)

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.374 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 17:07:14

Tröste Dich Poppie, ich hab meine guten Euros bei 1,18 getauscht.

Es ist einfach alles zum Kotzen. Scheiß Amis ... scheiß Börse

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.481 von Holgus am 10.03.08 17:15:18

Die Frage ist.......wie gehts weiter? Ich hasse es nichts tun zu können...weiss jmd ob dieser Aktionärstag auch für Kleinaktionäre offen ist??

[Holgus]

Wau ... 10 % runter in Frankfurt ... genial.

Aktionärstag für Kleinaktionäre offen ? Jetzt bestimmt nicht mehr.

Mich dürften die da nicht reinlassen im Moment.
Ich würde als erstes den Vorstand austauschen ... via Genickschuß.

[flow_solver]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.580 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 17:21:23

Ein-Jahres Performance dahin, gehen Sie zurück auf Los.

[Holgus]

Mal `ne andere Theorie.

Was würden die GROSSEN machen, wenn sie von Kelly hintenrum erfahren, dass AAB nicht die Erwartungen erfüllt ?

Und sie wären die Ersten die es erfahren.


Denkt mal drüber nach.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.892 von Holgus am 10.03.08 17:45:10

Holger,die Ergebnisse hat selbst Elan NICHT VOR APRIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.821 von flow_solver am 10.03.08 17:39:42

Ja,es ist bitter.....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.932 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 17:48:29

ich bin kurz davor in Holgies Wortwahl zu verfallen!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.918 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 17:47:12

Holger,die Ergebnisse hat selbst Elan NICHT VOR APRIL

Ach Birgitschatz, wie naiv bist DU denn ?????
Meinst Du wirklich, Elan pumpt in die PII/PIII-Studien multimillionen Dollar rein und erfährt während der Laufzeit nichts in Richtung Ergebnisse ?
Also wirklich.

Offiziell und auf dem Papier mag das so sein, aber insgeheim wissen die längst was Sache ist.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.956 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 17:50:29

und was es nicht gerade einfacher macht, ist die Tatsache, dass wir die Kursdrückerei doch eigentlich schon wieder vorher haben kommen sehen.

[Poppholz]

wenn das so weiter geht, dann fliegt mein Notebook hier noch an die Wand.

Bin so wie so schon genervt, dass ich hier in Thailand sitze und nicht zu Hause bei meiner Familie sein kann und dann geht auch noch mein Depot den Bach runter.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.961 von Holgus am 10.03.08 17:50:41

Wenn ich 100 schwachsinnige Rentner in eine Klinik sperre und gebe 50 davon AAB, die restlichen kriegen Klowasser zu saufen, dann brauch ich nach ein paar Monaten nur mal durch die Klinik zu laufen und sehe Ergebnisse ... ganz einfach.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.961 von Holgus am 10.03.08 17:50:41

"...Offiziell und auf dem Papier mag das so sein, aber insgeheim wissen die längst was Sache ist. "

und besch... uns um unser Geld. Sollte mich nicht überraschen, wenn P3 initiiert wurde, um zu guten Kursen Kasse zu machen, wissend, dass P2 = Fäkalie ist!!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.029 von roboty am 10.03.08 17:56:16

... wenn P3 initiiert wurde ...

Sowas hatte ich auch grad gedacht.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.599.994 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 17:53:18

Poppi und Holgus,ich bin auch gefrustet........................

Aber ich bin mir sicher dass es nichts mit AAB001 zu tun hat...


ALSO :KONKRETE VORSCHLÄGE---was tun wir?????

Ab nach Boston am 7.MAI?Verkaufen JETZT ?(Ich bestimmt nicht)Kaufen jetzt ?(kann ich nicht mehr....)Wie kommen wir an mehr Infos ??

Macht mal Vorschläge----Ich wär für Boston wenn sie uns reinlassen....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.061 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 17:58:42

Poppi und Holgus,ich bin auch gefrustet...............

Lach ... hier sind noch mehr gefrustet.

Vielleicht hat Kelle selbst ja Alzheimer, oder es juckt ihm sein kleiner Martin ... oder was weiß ich.


Ich WILL NICH nach Boston ... da würd ich nur zum Gewalttäter werden.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.087 von Holgus am 10.03.08 18:01:42

Wenn Kelle wirklich Alz hat, bin ich der Erste, der ihm Urin ins Hirn injiziert ... durchs Ohr (oral) oder meinetwegen auch durch die Nase (das wär dann ? na was wohl ? genau ... nasal)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.087 von Holgus am 10.03.08 18:01:42

Los,will jetzt was KONSTRUKTIVES von Dir hören....was machen wir jetzt-Bankraub und dann weiter investieren????

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.131 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 18:05:08

Ich weiß was, wir setzen uns zusammen und arbeiten eine Penission aus. Die schicken wir dann als Protestnote nach Irrland.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.087 von Holgus am 10.03.08 18:01:42

Boston?????

Wahrscheinlich wissen viele noch nicht, dass der merik. Finanzsektor vor seinem "Urknall" steht!! Bernanke kackt sich wohl laufend in die Hose und schmeisst $$$$$$ aus dem Fenster. Ist wie nach dem Krieg. Da sollen die Händler auch ihre Ware gleich körbeweise aus dem Fenster geschmissen haben, aus Angst, wenn die Alliierten kommen gibst "Krätsche" !!

[Holgus]

Oh sorry ... keine Angst Birgit ... ich meinte Petition

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.154 von roboty am 10.03.08 18:06:55

Bernanke ist auch nur so ein upgefukter Bushlakei ... solange die Bande an der Regierung ist und vor allem weiterhin für gigantisch Geld Araber schlachtet, wird sich da drüben eh nix wenden.

[Holgus]

Wann machen BIIB/ELAN ein für alle Mal Schluß mit dieser Leber-Scheiße in der Presse ?
Das darf nicht war sein, wie sie die Presse immer wieder diesen Blödsinn schreiben lassen. Nich zu fassen.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.273 von Holgus am 10.03.08 18:18:44

für meine Begriffe will sich da jemand die Nanotechnik unter den Nagel reissen, den andren Sch... dürfen wir dann behalten. Da kackt uns einer gewaltig in --an-- die Schüssel!!:O

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.131 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 18:05:08

Muss jetzt auch noch meinen Senf ablassen: bei 18488 sagte ich, Abverkauf bis $ 17,70 wahrscheinlich. Könnte jedoch auch noch die $ 15 - alter Widerstand - "testen", was für ein Unwort.

Die Kleinaktionäre hier klammern sich an ihren Anteilen fest und hoffen auf Kurse über $25. Die anderen schmeißen alles weg, was halbwegs gut gelaufen ist, wie z. B. ELAN. Kleinerer Rebound bis $ 20 wäre überfällig bei normalen Handelsbedingungen. Doch zur Zeit sind Kursanstiege, wenn überhaupt nur Shorteindeckungen bis zur nächsten Shortattacke. Geht einfach bei Werten, die keinen Gewinn abwerfen, wie ELAN, die hauptsächlich von Zukunftserwartungen leben.

ELAN wird bei positiven Nachrichten sofort gedeckelt. Also habe ich keine großen Erwartungen, was die Alzheimer Geschichte anbelangt, wenn die nicht zur Zeit gerade "vergesssen" wird.

Sollte ich/man nachkaufen oder das unabsehbare Elend = Amikrise aussitzen? Gute Werte erkennt man, dass sie auch in Krisenzeiten steigen bzw. weitgehend resistent sind. ELAN gehörte früher dazu. Jetzt leider nicht mehr.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.061 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.03.08 17:58:42

also für mich kommt Bosten nicht in Frage.

Verkaufen auch nicht (den Gefallen tue ich den Verbrechern nicht)

Kaufen auch nicht (keine Kohle mehr, momentan für keine Aktien)

Vielleicht schichte ich noch ein wenig mein Depot um.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.440 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 18:33:15

"...Vielleicht schichte ich noch ein wenig mein Depot um. "

Hin und her macht Taschen leer

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.413 von HAL11000 am 10.03.08 18:30:53

hört sich ja vernichtend an.

Aber ich muss Dir ja zugestehen, dass Deine Vorhersage bezüglich des Kurseinbruches recht gehabt hast.

Hatte bei Deinen Aussagen schon ein wenig an Deiner "Objektivität" gezweifelt. Heute sehe ich das natürlich ein wenig anders und zweifel eher an meiner "Objektivität".

Die 17,70 Euro vom September wären ein "guter" Boden. Wenn hier natürlich ein Großer weitere STOP LOSS abschöpfen will, dann sind hier auch Kurse von unter 17,- Euro möglich.

Hätte, wäre, wenn, ...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.473 von roboty am 10.03.08 18:36:11

ich weiß.

Aber irgendwie habe ich das Gefühl, dass ich etwas machen muss.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.622 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 18:50:54

jetzt sind wir unter 18,- Euro.

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.599 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 18:48:42

wenn das weiter so geht sehen wir die 17,70 schneller als gedacht.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.656 von GuHu1 am 10.03.08 18:53:13

heute wäre durchaus noch möglich.

[GuHu1]

quelle IV:

Drugs slow but don't stop disease's progress [Albuquerque Journal, N.M.]

Mar. 10--Multiple sclerosis remains incurable, but an array of drugs is

credited with improving the lives of those who battle the disease, a University

of New Mexico MS specialist said.

Drugs are "partially effective," said Elida Greinel, an advanced practice nurse

UNM's Multiple Sclerosis Specialty Clinic.

The center treats about 2,000 people from New Mexico and surrounding states.

Causes of MS remain elusive. People with a family history of MS inherit a

propensity for the disease, she said, but onset involves some unknown mechanism.

"We know there must be an environmental trigger but we don't know what it is,"

Greinel said recently in her office at UNM's Mind Imaging Center.

That trigger could be viral, bacterial or something else, she said. "If we knew

the cause, we could address it," she said.

Onset of MS occurs when T-cells, a type of white blood cells vital to the

body's immune system, initiate a "massive attack" on myelin, the protective

coating around nerves, Greinel said.

Drugs approved for the treatment of MS are intended to reduce the frequency or

severity of those attacks, she said.

Although MS affects everyone differently, drugs and treatments generally allow

people with MS to enjoy a better quality of life than those a generation ago,

she said.

A relatively new MS drug called Tysabri has garnered headlines in recent years

both for its potential risks and benefits.

Tysabri, made by Biogen Idec and Elan Corp., was temporarily pulled from the

market in 2005 after three patients in clinical trials developed a potentially

fatal brain infection called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML.

Two died.

The Food and Drug Administration restored approval in 2006 under tight

regulations after health officials determined that people with MS were willing

to accept the risks in exchange for potential benefits.

Vern Beachy, 44, credits Tysabri with improving his life since he began

receiving monthly infusions in November 2006.

"There is no comparison," Beachy said of life before and after Tysabri. "Before

I could walk half a block and that was with crutches. Now, I'm walking up to a

mile a day and I don't use crutches or a wheelchair."

Beachy, 44, worked as news director at Albuquerque radio station KOB-AM (770)

when he was diagnosed in 1998 and forced to retire a year later, he said. He

left New Mexico in 2001 and now lives in Carroll, Iowa.

Greinel called Tysabri "a good drug" that is typically used for people who

don't respond well to other drugs. But Tysabri is not "a rescue drug," she said.

"We don't have the magic bullet," Greinel said. "These diseases are very

complex and require complex treatments."

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.599 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 18:48:42

Leider sind's keine 17 Euronen, sondern bald jämmerliche $17. Auch das Euro - Dollargefälle nervt gewaltig. Werde wohl weiter abwarten und tatenlos(?) zuschauen, bis die Nerven ganz blank liegen. Könnte noch ein paar Werte zitieren, die erst gut gelaufen sind und dann herbe Verluste eingefahren haben, aber das steht auf einem anderen Blatt.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.708 von HAL11000 am 10.03.08 18:57:41

meine natürlich auch $ und nicht €.

Ist aber bereits ein langer Tag (wir haben hier schon 01:10 Uhr und gleich geht es wieder ins Büro.

Somit verabschiede ich mich von hieraus.

(Kann so wie so nichts machen)

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.600.854 von Poppholz am 10.03.08 19:10:49

Habe noch mal 100 Stück 871331 zu 11,85 € in München nachgekauft. Nur mal so als Info.

[posimist]

Jeder von uns sagt sich, hätte ich doch am Ende des Jahres alles verkauft.
Ich jedenfalls habe es leider nicht getan.

Inzwischen herrscht an der Börse Hysterie, denn die Wirtschaftsdaten sind gar nicht so schlecht, immerhin wächst die Weltwirtschaft gut 4%, die Kapitalmarktzinsen sind niedrig, die Unternehmen haben hohe Cash Flows mit Aktienrückkäufen, hohen Dividenden und Unternehmenszusammenschlüssen.
Die Aktien sind völlig unterbewertet.
Das wird sich ändern, vielleicht schneller, als manche jetzt denken.

Was Elan angeht, so kann ich mir nicht vorstellen, dass die Firma oder auch Wyeth irgendwelche relevant unangenehmen Daten zurückhalten, schon alleine, weil der Vertrauensverlust viel zu groß wäre. Die Unternehmen haben schließlich eine andere Entwicklung vor Augen.
posimist

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.603.104 von posimist am 10.03.08 22:33:15

Danke Posi für die aufbauenden Worte.
Tun nach solch verrückten Tagen wirklich gut.

Gute Nacht alle zusammen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.603.104 von posimist am 10.03.08 22:33:15

Ich dank Dir auchbrauche auch echt Trost....Gute Nacht!

HAL :Klasse!!

[bernie55]

Guten Morgen !!

Mannomann , das hätte ich mir auch nicht in meinen kühnsten Träumen ausgemalt.....


Wenn ich den Elan- Thread so durchlese, kann ich die Wut, Verzweiflung und die Gedanken des WENN UND ABER sehr gut nachvollziehen....mir geht es nämlich nicht anders als euch...



Meine große Frage ist und bleibt:
Was wird/ist mit AAB-001 ???

Deshalb, mein weiterer Gedanke....

Verkaufen ??? NÖ !!!!

Warten auf die AAB News ??? YES - weil ich darauf seit einigen Jahren warte und mein Long-Investment in ELAN darauf abgezielt habe und ich eine Seriösität der beiden Firmen in den letzten Jahren immer bestätigt sah...

Die Gedanken , die Phase III von AAB-001 nur aus Gründen der Kurssteigerung zu initiieren, kann ich deshalb nicht unterstützen...

..uns allen GOOD LUCK ..

Grüße bernie55

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.604.074 von bernie55 am 11.03.08 08:04:04

habe mich inzwischen auch ein wenig beruhigt, aber das Unverständnis ist geblieben.

Meine Aktien bleiben auch alle im Depot.

Mal sehen wann der Boden erreicht wird.

Vorhersagen kann ich im Moment überhaupt nicht machen.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.604.251 von Poppholz am 11.03.08 08:33:55

Poppie, Vorhersagungen kann keiner machen ... zu keinem Zeitpunkt.

Das ist an der Börse grundsätzlich so und wer es anders sieht,
den find ich unseriös.


So, nun aber hoch mit dem Papier (München wird hier mit über 11 % Plus angezeigt, aber das hat wohl nix zu sagen, oder ?).

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Moin

#
[ELN] Yesterday 01:00pm
Elan Corp PLC Canaccord Adams Raised ELN to Hold from Sell (timing uncertain)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 205661 3/10/2008 11:05:19 PM
By: berkstump2

The eye of the needle gets used again

Did anybody bother to check the volume in the 15 minute
periods for today. Guess not, huh?

In the past, when I've reviewed these 15 minute periods, I
make a somewhat artificial distinction by labelling any volume
over 200,000 shares within 15 minutes as 'large' and likely
supported by some sort of Tute(s) in the background.
A 15 min period with 300,000 to 400,00 of volume is relatively rare
and I have to believe is highly indicative of Tutes at work.

Get this-

Today's downdraft- 15 min. periods-

Qty........Volume range
4.............200,000 to 300,000
3.............300,000 to 400,000
3.............400,000 to 479,000

Sure looks like algorithm sponsored selling to me.

Now for the flip side... and the rather interesting post 2:30 up
move-
volumes per 15 min. periods-
215,800
268,600
311,000
534,900
476,000
677,226

Just some quick observations-
1. Notice the volume increasing into the close?
That is a a relatively rare event in Eln trading.
2. Notice the rather 'round' volume in at least 2 of those periods?
Geez, what a coincidence! (not)
3. Looking at the 15 min chart and the absolute small candlesticks
associated with the final 4 volumes listed above, One might be
shocked at how many shares could be bought without driving the PPS
up. Again, I believe this to be further algo trading
( As per my newfound favorite phrase- Tutes driving a herd of
buffalo through the eye of a needle.)

Perhaps Eln has reached bargain basement levels and a directional change
is in order?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Author: liposghost


I once got a box of frosted flakes for christmas and tried to put the pieces together into a picture of a tiger
so the pieces of the puzzle i now have and am trying to assemble with a hammer; sure look like two companies making every preperation to bring a working Alzheimer's treatment to market. And sooner rather than later.
I will elaborate when more clarity arrives. I think i can trim a few pieces and make em fit better.
thanks ipar, et al
pleasant dreams
the haint

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Goodbody
Analyst: Ian Hunter
Over the past 24 trading days, Elan's share price has come off 31.1%, from its recent high of $26.70 reached on 4th February. This has, we believe, been driven by a number of "issues", raised firstly over Tysabri and now on AAB-001. Firstly, it was highlighted that Tysabri can, in some rare cases, cause liver problems. This information has been known since last July and was added to the label in January, yet off came the price. This was followed by the premature release of an AAN poster noting that 1% of a patient population using Tysabri had JC virus in the CSF. The JC virus can be present in between 5% and 9% of Tysabri-naïve patients at any one time, yet the price continued to slip. Now, we understand, the debate is on the validity of the end points being used in the Phase II trial of AAB-001 for the treatment of Alzheimer's, data from which is expected to be released in July. Here the debate is centring on the use of the Neuropsychological Test Battery (NTB) to assess Alzheimer's patients (the test Elan and Wyeth are using in establishing the primary endpoint in its Phase II trial) versus the perceived gold standard in testing Alzheimer's patients - the ADAS-Cog battery of tests. Opinion varies on the relative value of both tests, some arguing that the NTB is a progression from the older ADAS-Cog tests and is more sensitive at picking up changes in mild Alzheimer's patients. Others argue that any medication should show progress in the standard ADAS-Cog scale to be relevant. Bottom line, if the FDA has agreed that the endpoints be measured on one particular scale, then any improvement on that scale is significant. In addition, both sets of tests have been used in assessing patients in the AAB-001 Phase II trial and so relative comparisons can be made. Finally, speculation is just that, speculation, until the data are actually published in July. It would appear that the market is now discounting the early transition of AAB-001 into Phase III and the data that drove that transition. Elan was trading at c.$15.40 the day before it announced that AAB-001 was moving into Phase III trials.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.603.104 von posimist am 10.03.08 22:33:15

das wollen wir hoffen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN now at 61.7% Institutional Ownership.


Company Details
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 472

Market Capitalization ($ millions): $8,687

Institutional Ownership: 61.7%

Price (as of 3/10/2008) 18.4

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.025 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.03.08 15:19:17

Hi Birgit, ist das noch aktuell?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.516 von surga am 11.03.08 15:48:22

----glaube schon:hat Ipar heute eingestellt mit Datum von heute...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.582 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.03.08 15:53:04

danke

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.582 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.03.08 15:53:04

der Verkaufsdruck ist noch sehr groß

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.645 von surga am 11.03.08 15:57:05

ich verstehe es auch nicht....Es sind wohl wieder die altbekannten Spielchen.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.609.743 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.03.08 16:02:54

"... altbekannten Spielchen. " richtig, Kelly treibt die Alten durch P3 und hat die Ergebnisse schon vorweg an die FDA gefaxt!!

[Poppholz]

Elan upgraded to "hold"
3:20a.m. - Canaccord Adams

LONDON, March 11 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Canaccord Adams upgrade Elan Corp Plc (DRX) from "sell" to "hold." The target price is set to €11.33.

In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the upgrade in rating follows a nearly 30% decline in the company’s share price since the beginning of February due to safety issues related to Tysabri. Elan’s Tysabri drug that has recently been approved for the treatment of Crohn’s disease in the US will not be able to capture a significant market share going forward, the analysts believe.

http://www.newratings.com/en/main/company_headline.m?id=1711…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 205940 3/11/2008 1:06:34 PM
By: kjmoy

Re: lars bought 7000 shares eom

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200803111649448…

Lars has proven to be better trader on Eln than all of us. His timing was always impecable.

[Holgus]

Leute, letzte Woche sind wir auch während des Verfalls einen Tag wieder etwas gestiegen ... und haben neue Hoffnung geschöpft.
Und danach semmelte es dann umso mehr ab.

Hoffentlich ist das nicht ab morgen wieder so.

Die Amis haben mal wieder 200 Mia. in die Wirtschaft gepumpt und prompt sind heut die meisten Werte grün.
Mal schaun wie lange diese Flickschusterei anhält.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.611.593 von Poppholz am 11.03.08 18:07:52

Hi Poppi, wie ist denn in Thailand.
Ich kenne nur den Flughafen auf dem Flug von Indonesien nach Deutschland

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.613.885 von surga am 11.03.08 21:11:42

es ist sehr schön.

Leider fehlt mir ein wenig die Zeit, um das Land mit seinen Sehenswürdigkeiten besser kennen zu lernen.

Es ist schon nachvollziehbar, dass viele Menschen hier Urlaub machen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.612.381 von Holgus am 11.03.08 19:11:10

gehe nicht davon aus, dass es noch weiter runter geht.

Allerdings habe ich auch nicht mit einem solchen Kursverfall gerechnet, wie wir Ihn in den letzten beiden Wochen gesehen haben.

Es gab keine negativen News und auch die Zukunftsaussichten sind weiterhin gut, auf jeden Fall haben sich diese in den letzten zwei Wochen nicht verschlechtert.

Wir haben auch schon in der Vergangenheit mit Kurseinbrüchen zu kämpfen gehabt, die nicht (auf jeden Fall nicht für mich) nachvoll gewesen sind. Es handelt sich hierbei aber schon um eine "Normalität" und ich habe in der Vergangenheit auch schon mehrmals gesagt, dass die Versuchung sehr groß ist ebenfalls in dieses Verhalten zu verfallen.

Bisher habe ich mich davon immer distanziert und bin auch jetzt nicht dabei gewesen.

Auf der anderen Seite sind die Verringerungen der Buchgewinne schon sehr ärgerlich.

Die Zukunft von ELAN ist weiterhin gut und somit wird sich der Kurs auch wieder nach oben bewegen.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.615.382 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 05:06:47

Die Zukunft von ELAN ist weiterhin gut und somit wird sich der Kurs auch wieder nach oben bewegen.


..dem sei an diesem Morgen nichts mehr hinzuzufügen...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Moin! "BÜSCHEN" lang das Folgende ;aber Lesen bildet ja....

ELN msg # 206202 3/11/2008 9:42:08 PM
By: JBWIN

Helpful Reading from CS re AD including Table of Programs




Figure 40: Developmental potential disease-modifying drugs for mild-moderate Alzheimer’s disease


Drug Company Phase Route of Admin Mechanism of Action Est File

AAB-001 Elan and Wyeth III Injection Human monoclonal antibody to Amyloid beta 2010

LY2062430 Lilly II Injection Human monoclonal antibody to Amyloid beta

2012

LY450139 Lilly / Elan Opt in III Oral Gamma Secretase Inhibitor 2012/2013

ELND-005 Elan and Transition II Oral Breaking down and preventing the assembly of beta

amlyoid fibrils

2012/2013

ACC-001 Elan and Wyeth II Injection Amyloid beta peptide Vaccine 2013

AL-108 Allon Therapeutics IIa Nasal Systemic

Formulation

PARP-1 stimulator 2013

PBT-2 Prana Biotechnology IIa Oral Metal-protein attenuating drug 2013

TTP-488 Pfizer II Oral Blocks RAGE/A-beta interactions 2013

PF-4360365 Pfizer I Injection Human monoclonal antibody to Amyloid beta 2013/2014

R1450 Roche I Injection Human monoclonal antibody 2013/2014

MK0752 Merck & Co I Oral Gamma Secretase Inhibitor 2014

NGX267 TorreyPines I Oral muscarinic M1 receptor agonist and beta amyloid

antagonist

2014

GSI-953 Wyeth I Oral inhibitors of the asparyl protease complex gammasecretase

2014

PAZ-417 Wyeth I Oral plasminogen activator inhibitor inhibitor
2014


Elan looks well placed to help revolutionise Alzheimer’s

After a detailed appraisal of Alzheimer’s drugs in development (see Appendix IV), we

believe that Elan is well placed to be a market leader in Alzheimer’s disease over the next

decade. Elan is at the forefront in developing several drugs (out of only a handful) which

have the potential to interrupt the course of Alzheimer’s disease progression. Because

current therapies only aid the symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease and have little or no

benefit on patients’ continued decline and eventual death, the potential therapeutic

advantages and commercial opportunity for effective disease-modifying treatments is very

significant, in our view.

While we still await the completion of phase II and phase III clinical trials, we believe that

early data support the possibility that Elan and Wyeth’s AAB-001 could be the first drug to

be approved with the potential of modifying the underlying course of disease for mildmoderate

Alzheimer’s patients (about half of all patients). We believe that AAB-001 could

be launched in the US as early as 2009 (but we are modelling for a 2010 launch), and

expect data news-flow over the coming year to cement understanding about the potential

of this product and the earnings potential for Elan.

At the current Elan share price, we believe equity markets are under-appreciating the

chances that AAB-001 could become a commercial success.

■

We outline why, with good proof of concept data, we think the chances of AAB-001

becoming a commercial success by our analysis deserves a 50% probability—we
leave the rest of Elan’s pipeline as a free option


AD is one of the biggest socioeconomic health

problems of the 21 century

Alzheimer’s is a devastating disease marked by steady cognitive, functional and

behavioural deterioration as regions of the brain gradually die. Within five years of

diagnosis, most patients require placement within a nursing home where they tend to die a

few years later. This deterioration can be measured as a worsening of Mini Mental State
Examination (MMSE) score (see below and Appendix IV for more detail).


According to the Alzheimer’s Association, c5m Americans have AD—most of whom are

over 65 years old. The rapid growth of the elderly population (first wave of the baby

boomers to come in 2011) could see the number of US adults with AD more than triple by

2050. Of course AD is not just specific to the US—worldwide, the prevalence of AD is set
to rocket from around 26m in 2006 to over 100m in 2050.


On top of the emotional trauma that family and friends endure when seeing the gradual

decline of an AD patient, AD comes at an incredible socioeconomic cost. It is estimated

that in 2005 the US government paid over US$110bn in direct medical costs for patients

with AD (equal to about 1/5th of the total US spend on Health and Medicare). According to

the Alzheimer’s Association, this figure is set to nearly double by 2015. The actual cost to

the US economy is even greater when considering the indirect productivity contribution of

AD patients and people that cannot afford nursing care premiums and have to give up
work to care for their loved ones.


Currently marketed AD drugs represent only approximately 2% of the costs associated

with AD on our estimates. We believe that the economic arguments are overwhelming for

governments and healthcare plans to promote the maximal adoption of an effective

disease-modifying therapy. A recent study by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public

Health concludes that interventions that could delay the onset of AD by as little as one

year would reduce prevalence of the disease by 12m cases in 2050. We believe that such

an intervention could reduce the US national cost of AD care by hundreds of billions of
dollars by 2050.


Clearly the need is great for therapies that halt the natural degenerative course of

Alzheimer’s disease. Out of the select potential disease-modifying drugs in development

for Mild to Moderate AD, only Elan’s AAB-001 (phase III) and ELND-005 (phase II) have

received “fast track” status from the FDA—a process allowing a faster path to approval

for “drugs and biologics intended to treat serious or life-threatening conditions and that

demonstrate the potential to address unmet medical needs”.

Elan exposed to Amyloid Beta

Elan, through the Athena Neuroscience acquisition in 1996, has been among the first

pioneers to develop therapies targeting the Amyloid Beta (Aß) protein. Fragments of

Amyloid Beta are deposited in the brains of AD patients and are largely thought to have a

pivotal role in the pathology of Alzheimer’s disease. Elan’s Alzheimer’s portfolio acts to

tackle Amyloid Beta from many angles: to disaggregate existing Amyloid plaques (AAB-

001 phase III), to prevent the formation of Amyloid Plaques by vaccination (ACC-001

phase II), to prevent the production of Aß (Lilly’s phase III LY450139 which Elan has a

worldwide royalty to and 50:50 opt in to co-promote to neurologists in the US) and by

breaking down and preventing the assembly of beta amlyoid fibrils (ELND-005 to enter

phase II).

This has left the future of Elan heavily exposed to the Amyloid Beta as a target. We

believe the principal findings from the past decades of scientific research point heavily to a

central role of Amyloid Beta in Alzheimer’s Disease pathogenesis—if evolving clinical data

refutes a central role for Amyloid Beta in AD, then the future of Elan’s pipeline will likely be

put in question. If Amyloid Beta is centrally involved in AD pathogenesis—then, in

our view, Elan potentially offers the most exciting Alzheimer’s pipeline in the

industry.

The principal theory for Alzheimer’s pathogenesis

The most widely accepted theory for the cause of AD is called the Amyloid beta

hypothesis—which postulates that abnormal accumulations of Aß peptide trigger a

cascade of biological events leading to Alzheimer’s disease. While we believe hard proof

for Aß as a causative factor for AD is still lacking, we believe the body of scientific

evidence points to a central role of Amyloid Beta in the pathological process of Alzheimer’s

disease.

The involvement of the Amyloid protein in AD was first implicated by Dr. Alois Alzheimer in

1906 who found abnormal clumps (amyloid plaques) and tangled bundles of fibres

(neurofibrillary tangles) in a women that died of an unusual mental illness. Since this initial

discovery, much evidence exists to suggest that the increased production (or decreased

clearance) of a small peptide called Amyloid beta (Aß) is central to the development of

fully blown AD which results in neurodegeneration, dementia and death.

Aß is produced in all healthy individuals with the physiological cleavage of Amyloid

Precursor Protein (APP) by two enzymes (proteins which catalyse biological reactions)

called ß secretase and γ- secretase. Under normal conditions >95% of Aß is processed

into the less toxic 38-40 amino acid and <5% is processed into the more neurotoxic 42

amino acid form (Aß42). Aβ is thought to have important physiological functions but it is

believed to become toxic when its production and degradation are imbalanced. By a

largely unknown mechanism it is thought that genetic and environmental factors tip the

normal balance to produce more of the Aß42 form—and this form is more likely to

aggregate and promote other Aß fragments to aggregate into oligomers and over time

form amyloid fibrils which become distributed as protein clumps (plaques) in areas of the

brain that serve memory and cognition (including the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex).

Amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles are classic hallmarks used to determine
whether a patient has Alzheimer’s disease.


It is still debated whether Aβ oligomers or plaques are responsible for triggering AD;

however, there is lots of evidence to suggest that Aβ is centrally involved in a cascade of

events which cause neuronal and synaptic dysfunction, neurofibrillary tangle formation,

neuronal death and neurotransmitter deficits which ultimately lead to clinical dementia.

Although clinical proof is still evolving, we believe that the evidence over the last few

decades provides the best scientific validation for Elan’s approach to target the Amyloid
beta system to treat AD. (See Appendix III for evidence of Aβ in Alzheimer’s.)


AAB-001

AAB-001 or bapineuzumab is Elan and Wyeth’s developmental humanised

monoclonlconal antibody against Aβ42 (thought to play a central role in the pathogenesis

of AD). Although we are still awaiting full disclosure of the data from the 240 patient Phase

II trial (expected in mid-2008E), we believe that following a scheduled interim look at the

latest data, management’s decision to simultaneously commence a phase III trial by the

end of 2007 is a strong signal to the market of its confidence in AAB-001’s clinical efficacy

and safety profile.

We believe that it is possible that AAB-001 could launch in the US as early as 2009, but

we are currently modelling for a 2010 launch. In an underserved Alzheimer’s disease

market, we believe that a safe product that can show significant benefits on cognitive

decline in mild-moderate AD patients for 18 months (which would support a “Disease

Modifying Claim” on the treatment’s label) is a multibillion-dollar sales opportunity for Elan.

Although data is limited for AAB-001, in our view, evidence so far indicates that AAB-001

could be the first disease-modifying drug to enter the market for mild to moderate

Alzheimer’s disease. With a two- to three-year window before other potential competitors
could launch, as well as several therapeutic advantages that AAB-001 might contain, we


think a disease-modifying label for the product could potentially help AAB-001 become the

market-leading Alzheimer’s treatment.

With a modest 6% penetration of the Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Top 15 Europe

(13% penetration of those patients treated with drugs) and modest biologic pricing of

US$8,000 per year (US$2000 per dose), we estimate that over the next 10 years AAB-001

could be a US$4.9bn peak sales opportunity for Elan. We value Elan using a 50% risk

adjustment for our AAB-001 estimates. We believe that leading up to and after the

disclosure of the phase II data in mid-2008E, the market may re-rate the likelihood that
AAB-001 will be a commercial success.


Awaiting “extremely strong” data?

Following unexpected efficacy results in a small phase I study, Elan and Wyeth initiated a

180-patient randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase II study in April 2005.

This trial was designed to assess ADAS-Cog (assesses cognition), Neuropsychological

Test Battery and DAD score (measures of qualities of life). We assume that after

discussions with the FDA it was realised that data from the phase II trial could be sufficient

to support a filing, becoming a “Pivotal Trial”. The trial was extended to 240 patients to test

the safety and efficacy of four doses of AAB-001. With the endorsement of the FDA, a

strategy was implemented to incorporate an independent group to manage scheduled
interim looks at the data to minimise the impact on its statistical integrity


Because of the pivotal nature of this trial—data from the interim look has not been shared

with the market—we will have to wait until mid-2008 to get the full readout from the trial.

However, after the following comments from Wyeth and Elan, we believe that the decision

to initiate a phase III trial after an 18-month interim of the phase II shows Wyeth and Elan’s

confidence in the strength of the phase II data so far—and the likely quality of the data to

come this year.

“as Lars has said, and Wyeth has certainly said, the data would have to be

extremely strong to go from…to begin all the activities surrounding the beginning

of a phase III trial. So because of where we are, and because this is a whole

portfolio approach in immunotherapy, we'll be…as always we'll be very precise

and judicious. So the data's going to have to be extremely strong for us to

move forward.”

Kelly Martin, Elan President and CEO, October 2006

“We will inform the market when we have met the hurdles that we jointly set. And

to paraphrase Bob Ruffalo, he said the data has to be—he used the word

spectacular. I use the word it has to be strong, it has to be very meaningful. There

are companies that decide to move into phase III based on circumstantial

evidence of efficacy, etcetera, but that's not the way we're going to operate”

Lars Ekman, Elan Global R&D, January 2007

“The drug is given every three months, up to 15 months and patients will be

evaluated at 18 months. We're also doing imaging so that we can see if we're

removing plaque, to correlate with any clinical benefit we might see. Now, again,

we don't have any results from this study at all, but we have a planned interim

look at the data at the end of this year. And, based on this interim look, we could

do two things. One, depending on the data, we could advance directly into phase

III in the first half of 2007, but the results would have to be spectacular. We don't

know what results we're going to get. Alternatively, we could complete the study

and then move to the next interim look, which would be in the first half 2007.

That's all we know right now”

Bob Ruffalo Wyeth, President Wyeth Research, October 2006

We assume that the decision to enter into phase III earlier than expected is a composite of

strong clinical efficacy and good safety data at phase II interims, positive indications of

efficacy from the phase I trial, early experience with AN-1792 and current understanding of

AD pathogenesis.

AAB-001 could potentially be launched as early as 2009

Elan and Wyeth could have the opportunity to file AAB-001 in the US under a Sub Part E

process—this allows drugs that treat life-threatening or severely debilitating illnesses on

an expedited approval process based on a “surrogate endpoint or on an effect on a clinical

endpoint other than survival or irreversible morbidity”.

Over the last 15 years there have been only 10 such drugs which have received approval

under this process, one of which was Elan’s Tysabri. Another example is Remicade, which

was approved in 1998 for moderate to severely active Crohn’s disease on the back of two

small placebo-controlled trials of around 100 patients each.

We believe that if the phase II efficacy data is very positive for AAB-001, Elan and Wyeth

might file the phase II data for approval with the FDA and then submit further safety data

during the approval process. International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) guidelines

suggest that the drug must be assessed in at least 1,000 patients for 12 months to assess

safety before approval and so we expect that either all or a subset of the phase III data will
have to be submitted to the FDA before approval.


While it is feasible that the AAB-001 could be filed in late 2008 and be launched by 2009,

we are currently modelling for a 2010 launch. We believe it likely that even with convincing

efficacy in the phase II studies, the FDA and European regulators will wait for more safety

data and for observations to be extended in larger phase III trails before granting AAB-001

with approval. We expect that Elan and Wyeth will likely look to supplement any filing of

the phase II data with 12-month interim data, which we expect could become available in

late 2009.

Elan contractually a manufacturer of AAB-001

Under the terms of the AAB-001 contract with Wyeth, Elan is contractually required to

arrange manufacture and market AAB-001 alongside Wyeth. Wyeth already has extensive

biological capabilities in place to manufacture AAB-001; however, Elan would need to

make a significant investment to be in the position to produce and market the drug. While

we expect, should the drug make it to market, Wyeth will lead the manufacture for the first

few years of launch, we believe over the next year or so Elan will have to make the

decision whether to build, acquire or arrange a facility capable of fulfilling its side of the

bargain.

Because we believe that having appropriate biological capabilities will be of strategic

importance so that Elan can execute its pipeline and maximise profits going forward, we

assume that Elan will make a capital investment of cUS$420m over the next five years.

Should Tysabri meet the 100,000 patient target by end of 2010, we believe that Elan could

comfortably commit to this extra capital expenditure while paying off its US$300m floating

rate debt and its US$850m of 7.75% notes by the end of 2011. While we are factoring in

more conservative assumptions of Tysabri’s near-term potential, we assume funds for a

biological plant will not come from existing debt and are modelling for Elan to originate

around an extra US$500m in debt in 2009. We believe that this origination might not be

necessary should Elan decide to sell its EDT business in the near term, with any upfront

gain realised providing a boost to cash to smooth over any step up in capital expenditure.

Should Elan decide not to establish a biological plant in the short term, we believe that it

will likely review its current contract with Wyeth or seek another third party to manufacture

AAB-001 on its behalf. This would likely impact Elan’s profitability on AAB-001.

We expect more clarity on Elan’s strategic positioning for its business on the 7 May

Investor day.

AAB-001 differentiated from other Aβ antibodies

Apart from having a couple of years’ head start versus the nearest competitor’s

developmental Aβ antibody (Lilly’s LY2062430, which was originally developed with Elan

and rights were relinquished to Lilly), we believe that AAB-001 has several properties that

set the drug apart from the competition.

AAB-001 recognises the first five amino acids on the N terminal of the Aβ protein. Mice

studies have shown that this property allows the antibody to bind and remove the soluble

form of Aβ as well as amyloid plaque. Lilly’s LY2062430 (a humanised version of mouse

antibody m266) recognises epitopes 13–28 and can only bind to soluble Aβ and is unable

to bind to deposited forms of Aβ in mice.

This is an important distinction for the following reasons.

■

Whether the soluble or the plaque form of Aβ is the main perpetrator in Alzheimer’s is

still unclear. AAB-001 has the potential to act at both points, unlike Lilly’s product.

■

AAB-001 can remove amyloid deposits in the cerebal vasculature. CAA is a main

contributing factor for stroke and cerebral haemorrhage in the elderly, and the degree

of CAA is related to the severity of a patient’s cognitive impairment. Lilly’s m266

antibody does not bind to deposited Aβ in CAA. This property could explain why at

very high concentrations, m266 did not lead to an increase in frequency or severity of

micro-haemorrhage in mice.

Unlike active immunisation with vaccine, passive immunisation with AAB-001 is likely to be

safer because the antibody seems to clear Aβ in the absence of T-cell immunity (thought

to be responsible for the cases of meningoencephalitis seen in AN 1792 vaccine studies).

Also, dosing can be modified with passive treatment which helps keep side-effects well

controlled—ABB-001 has a half life of 22–28 days in patients which means after three

months the drug is nearly a tenth of its starting dose.

Elan and Wyeth have a strong patent estate for the N terminal

Given the differing properties of Amyloid Beta antibodies, Elan and Wyeth have made

extensive efforts to protect the intellectual property of their approach. The companies have

more than 50 US patents or applications as well as corresponding foreign patents between

them. Of particular importance is the 6,787,637 patent which protects against antibodies

targeting the N-terminal 7 amino acids of Aβ. If competing companies decide to develop

antibodies targeting this region, we believe that Elan and Wyeth might be eligible for

significant royalties.

AAB-001 data so far—encouraging but early

The first insight into the possible clinical efficacy of AAB-001 came from a small doubleblind

phase I safety and tolerability study, which contained a built-in status assessment of

cognitive function called a mini-mental status examination (MMSE).

Patients (already being treated with Acetylcholine esterase inhibitors) were randomised to

receive either placebo or one dose of bapineuzumab at 0.5mg/kg, 1.5mg/kg or 5mg/kg

and responses were measured over time.

Data were presented at the Ninth Geneva/Springfield Symposium in April 2006. The study

showed that the drug was generally well tolerated and in six patients that received one

dose of 1.5mg/ Kg bapineuzumab there was a statistically significant benefit in cognitive

function on the MMSE scale after four months when compared to the eight placebo

patients. Twelve months after a single dose there was still a positive trend (not statistically
significant) for both 1.5 and 0.5mg / Kg bapineuzumab—see Figure 47 and Figure 48.

Although these results are encouraging we believe that with only one dose of drug and

with such a small sample of patients, it is too early to draw firm conclusions on AAB-001

from this study.

Patients treated with the 5 mg / kg dose failed to show any cognitive benefit when

compared with placebo. Furthermore, at this dosage three out of ten patients displayed

vasogenic edema (increases in fluid in the spaces between the cells in the brain) as

detected by MRI FLAIR abnormalities. This edema resulted in an increase in short

transient confusion in one patient while the other two patients were asymptomatic—the

MRI FLAIR abnormalities resolved in all three cases by 12 weeks post-dose and the

symptoms in one patient disappeared very fast. The edema appeared not to be caused by

an inflammatory response because after analysis of spinal taps in these patients there

were not increased white blood cell counts or elevated proteins or red blood cells.

Although this adverse effect was well managed in these patients and AAB-001 was

allowed to continue into phase II trials,. further dosing with 5mg/kg has stopped.

Vasogenic Edema seen in the ongoing phase II study

Cases of vasogenic edema have also been observed in the ongoing phase II study, which

is looking at doses of AAB-001 lower than 5 mg/Kg. All patients displaying this quickly

recovered when taken off the drug and were then subsequently re-challenged with a lower

dose and treatment continued (in which no further evidence of edema presented

itself).This protocol was agreed by the FDA prior to the phase II study starting.

The vasogenic edema has been described as a "lab finding" with "very limited, if any

clinical findings" and has been said to be more abundant in ApoE4 carriers. Similar to the

cases seen in phase I studies, there is no evidence of any inflammatory response or

micro-haemorrhage in patients displaying vasogenic edema. Lumber punctures have been

taken from all patients showing vasogenic edema, and there has been no evidence of red

blood cells, white blood cells or any significant protein in the patients‘ cerebrospinal fluid

(CSF) and so an inflammatory process was excluded in this context. The Drug Safety

Monitoring Board is aware of these findings and has not interrupted the trial from

continuing and the FDA and CHMP have authorised the phase III trial to commence. Both

Elan and Wyeth were aware of these cases when making the decision to progress into

phase III early. While the presence of reversible vasogenic edema appears to have

minimal clinical manifestations, clearly to ensure maximum safety when treating patients

with AAB-001, vasogenic edema needs to be closely monitored.

We believe that the design of the phase III trial, which will test a lower dose of AAB-001 in
APOE e4 carriers, and the same dose and multiple higher doses in the non- carrier subset,

will give Elan the maximum chance of demonstrating efficacy of AAB-001 while minimising

the adverse safety considerations.

Vasogenic edema may point towards efficacy

Vasogenic edema is a specific form of edema caused by increased interstitial fluid

accumulating in the brain. We believe that the cases of vasogenic edema seen in clinical

testing of AAB-001 maybe an unfortunate but important marker of the drug’s efficacy.

On vasogenic edema, Elan made the following intriguing comments:-

“We do not know yet, if that is an adverse event, or if it's an event that we're actually

striving for.” Lars Ekman—Elan. Global R&D. Q3’07 Results

We believe it is possible that vasogenic edema may be occurring as a result of AAB-001’s

additional ability to bind to amyloid deposits in the blood vessel walls of patient brains.

Almost all Alzheimer patients and over half of all people over 90 years have heavy loads of

amyloid deposits in the blood vessel walls of their brains, not just in the brain tissue

spaces (or parenchymal spaces) used as a hallmark to diagnose Alzheimer’s. This
condition is called cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA).

Unlike other monoclonocal Amyloid beta antibodies in development, AAB-001 has also

been shown in preclinical studies to bind and remove CAA plaque burden. If replicated in

current studies, we believe this could have substantial clinical importance for Alzheimer’s

disease. In addition, removing CAA with AAB-001 could have important benefits for

several vascular pathologies (yet to be investigated) because CAA blockage is also a main

contributing factor for stroke and cerebral haemorrhage in the elderly.

Alzheimer’s patients with CAA have been shown to have significantly worse cognitive test

performance and the severity of CAA blockage has been shown to correlate with the

degree of cognitive impairment. How CAA is thought to impair cognitive function is

unknown, but one possibility is that CAA blockage creates a functional disturbance of the

transport of essential nutrients across the blood brain barrier. Increasing scientific studies

support the theory that CAA blocks the normal routes for extracellular (or interstitial) brain
fluid drainage and circulation. Removing the blockage with AAB-001 may temporarily

increase the permeability of the capillaries in the brain resulting in the safety

considerations of vasogenic edema. Intriguingly, if this adverse effect can be managed

with AAB-001 such that it is temporary and reversible and has minimal clinical

manifestations, then the safety profile of AAB-001 is likely to be acceptable and transient

vasogenic edema may actually be an important sign that the drug is working and able to
benefit Alzheimer’s patients.

Phase III trial design gives clues?

One of the findings revealed from the interim efficacy and safety look of the phase II trial,

yet to be fully disclosed, was that the relative percentage of patients displaying vasogenic

edema was higher in the APO E4 carrier subset of patients. Although in October 2007 the

totality of patients displaying vasogenic edema was said to be low, we believe this finding

invariably affected the phase III trial design that was finally sanctioned by the FDA and

CHMP.

With initial expectations of a smaller phase III programme, Elan and Wyeth have now

commenced 4 separate phase III blinded, randomised, placebo controlled, multi-centred

trials—two in the US and two in Europe—to study both the APO E4 carrier and APO E4

non carrier populations.

Apolipoprotein E (APO E4) is a protein that significantly increases the risk of developing

normal/ sporadic late stage Alzheimer’s disease and is thought to be abundant in around

half of all mild to moderate Alzheimer patients. While the mechanism underlying the

involvement of APO E4 in Alzheimer’s remains unknown, a large amount of evidence

suggests that a major mechanism is via the isoforms’ ability to act as a chaperone for the

Amyloid Beta peptide to modulate its clearance and aggregation in the brain.

Of possible relevance to the way that AAB-001 might be working, some studies suggest

that the possession of the APO E4 allele favours the accumulation of Amyloid Beta in the

vasculature (CAA) over the Amyloid Beta load in the brain (parenchyma). It has been

shown in Alzheimer patients that the more copies of APO E4 allele the patients had, the

more severe their CAA. We believe it is possible it is these patients that have a heightened

susceptibility to developing transient vasogenic edema with AAB-001—hence Wyeth and
Elan’s decision to study this subgroup separately using a lower dose.

More on the phase III

With a total of 4,000 patients to be studied the phase III AAB-001 programme is the largest

Alzheimer drug trial in history. Although we believe this trial is set to be more expensive

than both Elan and Wyeth originally expected (both to split the cost approximately equally),

we believe the trial design maximises the chances that AAB-001 can show efficacy across

both subsets of the mild to moderate Alzheimer population while keeping safety

paramount.

In the US, clinical dosing began at the end of 2007 and some details of the two trials have

become available. The two European studies, which we expect will be very similar in

design to those in the US, are scheduled to start in mid-2008.

Each US trial is scheduled to take three years, with 1.5 years allocated for patient

recruitment (which we believe is conservative and could comfortably occur within 12

months ) with the remaining 1.5 years as study time for patients on drug or placebo.

In both US trials, patients will be allowed to continue stable medication of available

Alzheimer’s drugs and the primary outcome will be significant changes in cognitive and

functional measures.

Patients in the larger 1250 non-APO oE4 carrier trial will be randomised to receive a 60

minute infusion on six separate occasions every 13 weeks of placebo or 0.5mg, 1mg or 2

mg/ kg AAB-001. We believe the concentration range in the phase III active arm is very

similar or identical to the concentrations currently being tested in the phase II study.

Patients in the smaller APO E4 carrier study, the subset thought to have the highest risk of

developing vasogenic edema with AAB-001, will be randomised to receive placebo or

0.5mg/kg AAB-001. Despite only testing the lowest dose of AAB-001 here, Elan and

Wyeth presumably believe that they can demonstrate a significant slowing of cognitive and
functional deterioration in this population while maximising safety.

What is needed for a Disease Modifying Claim in Alzheimer’s?

All currently marketed products in Alzheimer’s have modest therapeutic benefits and are

considered to provide only symptomatic relief because there is no direct evidence that

they slow or reverse the underlying biological processes causing AD.

AAB-001 is the first drug with the potential of being approved with a ‘disease modifying’

claim in mild to moderate Alzheimer’s and as such has exciting therapeutic and

commercial opportunities. Due to its pioneering nature, what is required is a matter of

evolving dialogue between regulators and drug developers.

Within the trial programme, we expect Elan and Wyeth to have to satisfy the following

criteria in order to receive a disease modifying claim.

■

A demonstration of efficacy on cognition. The most widely used and accepted

standardised test battery for this purpose is the Alzheimer’s disease assessment

scale-cognitive (ADAS-Cog) scale; however it has been argued that the

neuropsychological test battery (NTB) is a more sensitive and reliable measure in mild

and moderate disease. Elan and Wyeth will wait to see the full outcome of the phase II

trial before setting the primary cognitive outcome scale—however we believe it likely

that the FDA will prefer the ADAS-Cog scale (see Appendix IV) while NTB gains

acceptance. Regardless of which measure is used we believe that in order to get a

disease modifying claim, the drug effect will have to be maintained for a full 18

months—this might be either a significant separation from placebo or, even better, a

slower decline in the AAB-001 curve compared with placebo.

AND EITHER

■

A clinician’s overall impression that the patient’s function and cognition has changed

over the course of the study (so called ‘global’ assessment). A common tool to assess

this is the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of the Boxes (CDR-SB). This involves the

sum of scores from a structured interview of the patient and an informant covering

performance in six areas: memory, orientation, judgment, home and hobbies,

community interactions and personal-care.

OR

■

An assessment of activities of daily living. This might be achieved by a 20 minute rating

by a trained observer assessing basic and instrumental activities on the Disability

Assessment for Dementia (DAD) scale.

AND

■

A demonstration that underlying disease can be changed. This might be achieved by a

demonstration that AAB-001 changes brain Aβ by imaging or changes in Tau protein in
the CSF.

To address change in underlying disease, regulators have agreed to consider a second

small 30-patient double blinded randomised phase II study currently running to look into

the effect of AAB-001 on brain amyloid levels. The primary outcome of this trial will be to

image patients’ brain amyloid burdens at 24, 50, and 78 weeks using Pittsburgh

compound B (an agent with binds Aβ) and Positron Emission Tomography imaging. This

will be correlated with secondary observations of the patients’ cognitive conditions using

ADAS-Cog and Neuropsychological Test Battery. An interim look at this small trial was

also shared with the regulatory bodies prior to the decision to commence the phase III trial

early. The full read-through from the imaging study is likely to come towards the end of

2008.

Achieving these endpoints will be a high hurdle but we believe out of all of the Alzheimer

products in development, Elan’s AAB-001 has the best chance. The formal primary

endpoint of the phase II study has yet to be disclosed but we believe this study has been

designed to encompass many of the above requirements.

If the data from the phase II and III studies with AAB-001 are supportive of disease

modification then approval of AAB-001 might warrant label phraseology such as “slowing

of disease progression” or “lowering the rate of cerebral atrophy” or “delaying of disease

milestones” for example. Elan and Wyeth are developing a formulation of AAB-001 for

subcutaneous injection, which is progressing into phase II trials this year. We believe this

formulation is designed to maximise utilisation and commercial potential for AAB-001,

allowing the treatment to be administered not only at specialised infusions centres but also
by primary care physicians or approved nursing staff/carers.

Anti-Ab autoantibodies findings may offer more clinical support

Healthy individuals and Alzheimer’s patients have been shown to produce antibodies

against Amyloid Beta (so called self or auto-antibodies). Auto-antibodies against

neurotoxic oligomeric Aβ species have been found to be depleted in AD patient blood and

correlated with age at onset for AD—i.e., the more antibody in the blood, the later the
onset of AD.

In a small five AD patient pilot study, monthly treatment for six months with intravenous

immunoglobulins containing autoantibodies against Aβ significantly lowered total Aβ levels

in the CSF and increased them in blood serum levels. Cognitive performance assessed by

ADAS-Cog improved by an average of 3.7 points above baseline after six months.

Although we believe that firm conclusions from this small study cannot be made, the

cognitive observations are intriguing given that the ADAS-cog score of most untreated AD

patients deteriorates by 7 to 11 points over a year.

Further work needs to be done, but some scientists believe that naturally occurring autoantibodies

against Aβ might be beneficial to Aβ clearance and have a protective role for

AD. Baxter has decided to move forward with its clinical development of Gammagard (a

purified mix of many human antibodies) in Alzheimer’s after a 24 patient phase II study

was said to have a “favourable outcome.” Subjects received Gammagard or placebo for

six months. Cognitive, behavioural and functional measures were assessed at baseline

and after three and six months of treatment. We expect data will likely be presented in Q2

this year.

Because Gammagard is a human-derived product we believe that supply issues will limit

the commercial potential of this product in Alzheimer’s. Phase III trials will begin early this

year.

Preclinical findings for AAB-001

Initial studies with mAb 3D6 (the mouse version of AAB-001) showed that the antibody

caused a marked 86% reduction in plaque burden in PDAPP transgenic mice
(manipulated mice that have been genetically programmed to form Aβ plaques).

In these early studies mAb 3D6 appeared to be able to enter the central nervous system,

bind to plaques and induce clearance of pre-existing amyloid—probably by triggering

neighbouring cells to internalise and degrade the antibody and plaque. These types of

dramatic effects were not seen with some other antibodies targeting different regions of Aβ.

Importantly, entry into the CNS seemed not to be due to abnormal leakage of the blood–

brain barrier, as no increase in vascular permeability was reported in these mice.

Separate studies in the same type of mice have shown that the reduction of Aß by mAb

3D6 protects against the progressive loss of synaptophysin, a marker of intact brain cell
connections. Loss of synapses and synaptophysin is a feature of AD and strongly

correlates with cognitive decline in humans. The protective effect of mAB 36 seemed to

come from its ability to bind soluble Aß because there was no correlation between

synaptophysin levels and amyloid plaque burden in the mice.

Although no preclinical behavioural studies with mAb 36D have been published several

studies targeting the N terminal of Aß have shown significant cognitive benefits in mice.

Very high dose of antibody can cause micro-haemorrhage in mice

There is no evidence that AAB-001 has caused haemorrhage in humans. However,

preclinical studies by some researchers have shown that 50 to 100 times effective doses

of the mouse versions of N- terminal Abeta antibodies including AAB-001 can cause an

increase in micro-haemorrhage in mice brains. Elan’s own studies with the mouse version

of AAB-001 show that in some instances (though not in the majority of cases) amyloid

removal from the cerebral vasculature was associated with micro-haemorrhage and these

instances could be significantly mitigated by modulation of dose (essentially tuning down

amyloid clearance to a manageable rate).

It is thought these micro-haemorrhages in mice may be caused when very high doses of

antibody unblock dysfunctional blood vessels far too quickly. Clearly the commercial

success of AAB-001 will be dependent on no micro-haemorrhage in humans at
therapeutically relevant doses.

In our view Elan and Wyeth’s Alzheimer’s pipeline has the potential to provide some of the

most clinically and commercially exciting Alzheimer products in the industry. However,

because successful development of these products requires further vindication of the

‘amyloid hypothesis’ in humans (which in itself will be related to the success of AAB-001)

as well as previous safety concerns seen with vaccination approaches, we are currently

attributing no value to the rest of Elan’s pipeline and leave any upside from these products

as a free option to the stock.

With the exception of a few early-stage autoimmune assets, Elan’s pipeline is dominated

by potential AD treatments. The latest-stage asset is Lilly’s LY450139 (phase III trials due

to start in March 2008), which Elan believes it has a worldwide royalty for and a 50% opt in

for co-marketing to Neurologists in the US. ELND-005 and ACC-001 have recently

progressed into phase II trials and several projects are due to enter clinical testing this

year.

Figure 56: Elan pipeline

Drug Company Current

phase

Expected

phase by

end 2008

Route of

admin

Mechanism

Alzheimer’s LY450139 Lilly/Elan 50% Opt in III III Oral Gamma Secretase inhibitor

Alzheimer’s ACC-001 Elan and Wyeth II II Injection Aβ vaccination

Alzheimer’s ELND-005 Elan and Transition II II Oral Prevention of assembly of beta amlyoid

fibrils

MCI ELND-005 Elan and Transition I → II Oral Prevention of assembly of beta amlyoid

fibrils

RA/Crohns ELND001 Elan I I Oral alpha-4 beta 7 integrin antagonists

Alzheimer’s Gamma Secretase Elan and Wyeth Preclinical → I Oral Gamma Secretase inhibitor

Alzheimer’s AAB-002 Elan and Wyeth Preclinical → I Injection Aβ humanised monoclonal antibody

MS ELND-002/004 Elan Preclinical → I Oral alpha-4 beta 1 integrin antagonists

Ulcerative colitis Tysabri Elan Preclinical → I Oral alpha-4 integrin antagonists

Oncology Tysabri Elan Preclinical → I Oral alpha-4 integrin antagonists

Source: Elan, Credit Suisse estimates, IDDB

ACC-001

Because of previous safety risks associated with Aβ vaccination, we view Elan and

Wyeth’s ACC-001 as a risky asset and do not currently include it in our modelling. ACC-

001 is designed to be safer than previous versions while maintaining the effectiveness in

removing Aβ—as such it could represent a ‘sitter’ within Elan’s pipeline. If ACC-001

demonstrates significant cognitive and functional benefits to Alzheimer patients (no

efficacy data has been presented thus far), modest uptake in elderly patients and similar

pricing to newly marketed vaccines, we think it could become a multi-billion-dollar sales

opportunity for Elan and Wyeth.

What makes ACC-001 different?

Phase IIa trials with the AN-1792, Wyeth’s previous Aβ vaccination, were abruptly halted

after 18 of the 300 (6%) patients treated with the vaccine developed autoimmune

meningoencephalitis (a serious inflammation of the brain and meninges which leads to

impairment in brain function and can lead to brain damage). Preclinical toxicologic models

and samples obtained from patients at post mortem suggest that AN-1792 caused

meningoencephalitis by eliciting an aberrant cytotoxic T-cell response mainly to C-terminal

epitopes of the vaccine. These observations have been backed up by independent studies

which suggest that T-cell epitopes in humans mapped to amino acids 15 to 42 in humans,

while B-cell (antibody-producing cells) epitopes mapped to amino acids 1 to 15. ACC-001

is designed to remove the part of the vaccine believed to be responsible for abnormal Tcell
reactions and replace the segment with a carrier protein called CRM197. CRM197 is a

well-characterised non-toxic diphtheria toxin mutant currently used to boost immune

responses as part of many marketed paediatric vaccines including Wyeth’s pneumococcal

conjugate vaccine, Prevnar. The rest of the vaccine, the N terminus, has been maintained

in ACC-001 as this is the region thought to confer the vaccine’s ability to trigger antibody

production in the body to disaggregate amyloid plaques. Responders to the vaccine in

patients treated with AN1792 were primarily N-terminal specific—regardless of whether

the patient developed meningoencephalitis.

We believe that the design of ACC-001 may mitigate the adverse safety risks associated
with AN1792 without hindering the possible efficacy of the vaccine.

ACC-001 starts phase II trials

After assessing the safety and pharmacokinetics of ACC-001 in mild to moderate AD

patients, Elan and Wyeth have progressed ACC-001 into two phase II trials.

Although the primary endpoints of these studies are due to take two years to complete, we

believe that Elan and Wyeth are anticipating recruitment to be relatively slow for this trial

(>2 years) as completion is not expected until 2012. If recruitment were to occur more

quickly than expected, we believe a read-out of 12-month interim data could be possible in

late 2009.

The larger of the two trials is a 228-patient US trial designed to assess safety, tolerability

and immunogenicity of multiple doses of ACC-001. Patients will be randomised to receive

either placebo or one of several doses of ACC-001 (between 3mg and 90mg) which they

will receive on five separate occasions (with or without adjuvant QS-21) over the course of

a year. Tolerability and adverse events will be followed up in these patients for a further

year after dosing is complete. As a secondary endpoint, cognitive and functional measures

will be measured throughout the dosing period and six months after the completion of

dosing. We expect these secondary assessments to be similar to the assessment battery
used for AAB-001, such as ADAS-cog, NTB, DADS, CDR sum of the boxes, etc.

The 56-patient European trial is a small, double-blind safety trial with no cognitive or

functional endpoints. Much like the larger US trial, multiple doses of ACC-001 are to be

assessed (3mg, 10mg, and 30mg) in the presence or absence of adjuvant QS-21.

AN1792 efficacy a mixed bag

Although the 372-patient phase IIa study with AN1792 was abruptly halted and over 90%

of patients only received two doses of the vaccine rather than the scheduled six doses,

long-term follow-up studies in just under half of the patients originally receiving AN1792

produced some exciting results.

After four and a half years those patients that responded to the vaccine (a fifth of those

patients dosed) showed significantly slower decline in the Disability Assessment for

Dementia scale, Dependence scale, and subtests of the Neuropsychological Test Battery

compared with placebo. So it seemed that the subset of patients that responded to the

vaccine had significant long-term benefits in daily functioning—an effect that we believe

has not been demonstrated with current marketed symptomatic therapies.

These observations were backed up by an independent study by the University of Zurich

which revealed that clinical follow-up of the 30-patient Zurich cohort showed that patients

with antibodies against Aβ remained cognitively more stable over three years compared

with non-responding patients. This benefit was also present in two out of three patients

who had experienced meningoencephalitis.

The original nine-month short-term blinded follow-up after the last dose had less success

in displaying efficacy for AN1792. No significant differences were found between antibody

responder and placebo groups for ADAS–Cog, Disability Assessment for Dementia,

Clinical Dementia Rating, MMSE, or Clinical Global Impression of Change. Vaccine

responders did show some significant benefits on some memory functions measured by

the cognitive Neuropsychological Test Battery test.

In the small subset of patients consenting to spinal lumbar puncture, those responding to

the vaccine showed a bigger decline in their CSF microtubule-associated Tau protein than

placebo recipients. Treatment with AN1792 had no effect on CSF levels of Aβ42. We think

an effect on Tau protein is likely to be an acceptable biochemical marker for regulatory

authorities when considering drugs displaying disease-modifying effects of drugs in AD

Unexpectedly, patients responding to the vaccine displayed significantly greater wholebrain

volume loss (3% vs 2%) and higher ventricular volume increases (1% vs 0.5%)

versus placebo. The reasons for this were unknown and could have been a combination of

amyloid plaque removal and increased neuronal destruction in patients displaying

meningoencephalitis. Brain volume loss returned to normal levels after the first year.

LY450139

LY450139 is Lilly’s developmental gamma-secretase inhibitor which is the latest-stage oral

drug with the potential to modify Alzheimer’s disease in our view. This drug is due to

commence a large 1,500-patient double-blind phase III trial in March 2008. The study is

designed to randomise patients to either 100mg LY450139, 140mg LY450139 or placebo

over a two-year period, where cognitive and functional endpoints will be assessed.

Because this is a legacy product from the Lilly-Elan collaboration (which was terminated in

August 1998), Elan has stated that it believes it has a worldwide royalty to the product and

an opt-in to co-promote the drug for seven years to neurologists in the US for which it will

receive 50% of the profits.

We do not include any implicit forecasts for LY450139 within our modelling and leave

Elan’s opt-in to this product as a potential wild card. In our view, this drug has failed to

demonstrate any clinical cognition benefit and proof of concept requires further

characterisation in humans.

The physiological role of the gamma-secretase enzyme is responsible for more than just
helping produce the toxic amyloid protein in AD: it also processes many proteins which are

required for the normal function of cells within the body. Inhibiting more than just the

amyloid processing function of the gamma-secretase enzyme could create potential sideeffect

issues in our view. This may have been a consideration for several companies

which decided to discontinue their gamma-secretase inhibitor development projects.

ELND-005 (AZD-103)

Elan recently entered into a collaboration with Transition Therapeutics to develop and

commercialise ELND-005 which Elan moved into phase II trials at the end of 2007. Elan

and Transition will share the costs (70/30), and operating profits will be shared accordingly

if ELND-005 is successfully developed and commercialised.

The FDA has granted ELND-005 Fast Track designation for AD based on a favourable

safety profile and good pharmacokinetic properties in phase I studies as well as

compelling preclinical data published in Nature Medicine which showed noticeable effects
on pathology and function.

We believe that proof of concept of this approach in humans is still in its infancy and

attribute no value to this project in our modelling at this stage. ELND-005 is an oral drug

called scyllo-cyclohexanehexol which is a derivative of the sugar inositol—a main

substrate for a number of signalling pathways with the body. There is some early evidence

to suggest that Amyloid Beta oligomerization and fibril formation is facilitated by

phosphatidylinositol lipids and so it is possible, but yet to be proven in humans, that ELND-

005 might compete with intact phosphatidylinositol for binding to Amyloid Beta and thus

interfere with fibril assembly.

While at first glance it is tempting to speculate that ELND-005 might have superior safety

qualities because of characterised physiological degradation pathways for inositol in the

body, we await to see how specific ELND-005 is at preventing Aβ aggregation in humans

without disrupting other important signalling pathways in the body.

The phase II study will test three doses of ELND-005 (250mg BID, 1000MG BID, 2000MG

BID) in 340 mild to moderate AD patients. The primary endpoints for the trial will be safety

and tolerability and cognitive and functional measures which will be assessed versus
placebo over an 18-month time frame. The study is due to complete in May 2010.

AAB-002

Elan and Wyeth are developing a follow-on Aβ humanised monoclonal antibody which

they have progressed to clinical testing. AAB-002 has distinct properties from AAB-001.

Instead of binding the first five amino acids at the early N-terminus of Aβ42, AAB 002

binds a little further along the protein which is thought to bind more soluble fraction with

less capability of clearance of plaques.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.615.603 von bernie55 am 12.03.08 07:57:03

..doch noch was....mal beizeiten lesen.....

COOLE Zusammenfassung von ELANs zukünftigem Projekten und ELANs AD PROGRAMM !!!!!!

Developmental potential disease-modifying drugs for mild-moderate Alzheimer’s disease


...u.a...
Clearly the need is great for therapies that halt the natural degenerative course of Alzheimer’s disease. Out of the select potential disease-modifying drugs in development for Mild to Moderate AD, only Elan’s AAB-001 (phase III) and ELND-005 (phase II) have received “fast track” status from the FDA—a process allowing a faster path to approval for “drugs and biologics intended to treat serious or life-threatening conditions and that demonstrate the potential to address unmet medical needs”.

This has left the future of Elan heavily exposed to the Amyloid Beta as a target. We believe the principal findings from the past decades of scientific research point heavily to a central role of Amyloid Beta in Alzheimer’s Disease pathogenesis—if evolving clinical data refutes a central role for Amyloid Beta in AD, then the future of Elan’s pipeline will likely be put in question. If Amyloid Beta is centrally involved in AD pathogenesis—then,in our view, Elan potentially offers the most exciting Alzheimer’s pipeline in the industry.



http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=206202&pt=…

[Holgus]

Boah ... wer das vorhin bis zum Ende gelesen (und verstanden) hat, bitte Finger hoch

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Für Holgus--weil "kürzer"....ich weiss ja wo das "Gehirn"des Mannes häufig sitzt....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#23577415

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.009 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 09:02:27

Also bei der Omma wandert mein Gehirn ganz schnell wieder in Regionen nördlich des Bauchnabels.

Ausserdem hab ich den Film heut Nacht um 3 Uhr schon gesehn ... ätsch

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.033 von Holgus am 12.03.08 09:06:03

boah--das nenne ich Einsatz....:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.078 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 09:11:29

Einsatz ?

Nöö ... ich spürte was, wurde wach und dachte "wer bläst denn da" ... aber es war doch nur der Sturm

Mein Hund hatte mich wach gemacht und wollte mal raus.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.178 von Holgus am 12.03.08 09:23:11

....ach so...

Um was für einen Hund handelt es sich denn?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.201 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 09:25:46

Um diese blonde freche Nase ...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.320 von Holgus am 12.03.08 09:36:27

der sieht ja richtig "seriös" aus.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.048 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 10:39:02

der sieht ja richtig "seriös" aus

"Der" ist eine "Die" und heißt Jeannie.

Seriös ? Oh je, frag mal den Jogger gestern im Wald. Der durfte keinen Meter mehr weiterjoggen, weil sie es einfach nicht wollte.
Dementsprechend "begeistert" war er natürlich ... hihi.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.616.320 von Holgus am 12.03.08 09:36:27

SÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜÜSS!!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.091 von Holgus am 12.03.08 10:42:39

das kommt sicherlich von dem "guten Umgang", den Deine Hündin genießen darf.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.156 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 10:47:38

Da gehört auch noch ein Kätzchen zu, zumindest zeitweise ...

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.174 von Holgus am 12.03.08 10:49:03

Auf dem Bild halte ich grad `ne Elan-Aktie hoch

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.182 von Holgus am 12.03.08 10:50:01

...man sieht,dass die auch die Elanies zum fressen gern haben....tja,wie der Herr so´s Gescherr.....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Dies ist so mutmachend.....


ELN msg # 206249 3/12/2008 5:02:54 AM
By: okz45

Re: NBC has gotta be talking about us!!!!"DON'T LOSE sight OF IT"

They will all be talking about Elan/Wyeth when all is said this summer.

It will put enormous pressure on speeding up the process to launch. The "epidemic" is not going away.

The impact this will have on your "lil ole elan" is not measurable in present PPS numbers. What many of you are missing because of this constant and understanderbly worrisome level of the current PPS is that the Corporations are preparing to launch this drug. Not only did they speed up the commencement of the PIII trials by a full year, they are starting the trials on four thousand patients on two continents commiting themselves to a couple of hundred million dollars to prove their theory, but they are investing in the manpower to plan and launch the drug.

You are reading all the rumbles that this data coming this summer is the most awaited biologic of all time.

That unfortunately also is the call for the short biased population of the Investment Industry to stack the deck looking for YOU to lose. If you snooze, you lose big time this go around

All the anecdotal evidence says its' a go. Is it all wrong?
Put this in your own personal perspective. This is a long term situation. You don't need to own this one all up front if you can't afford it. There will be ample time as each process gets validated to hop along. This may be a sloooowwww train that meets a lot of bumps along the way.but it is well prepped to go the distance. Many of us will meet on the other side of FDA and EMEA approvals.

a couple of thoughts

PS
Parkinson Disease is up next for Elan

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.182 von Holgus am 12.03.08 10:50:01

Auf dem Bild halte ich grad `ne Elan-Aktie hoch


> <

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Aut Teva und seine Sprachrohre ist einfach Verlass--aber :Wer zuletzt lacht,lacht am besten...


Teva hiked Copaxone by 12.5%, claims analyst

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/963305.html


Teva hiked Copaxone by 12.5%, claims analyst
By Yoram Gabison

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries has raised the price of its multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone, says Ken Cacciatore, an analyst at Cowen and Company investment bank.

Caccioatore says he believes that the Israeli company, which is the biggest maker of generic drugs in the world, upped the drug's price by 12.5% at the end of February 2008.
Advertisement

In light of the price hike, his previous estimate of 11% growth in the drug's sales, to $1.2 billion in 2008, could prove to be conservative, he adds.

Cacciatore recommends buying Teva shares at present and has given the share an Outperform rating, noting that Teva will be receiving 55% of the revenues from Copaxone sales until April 2008, and 75% of the revenues thereafter. The remainder goes to the coffers of Teva's marketing partner for Copaxone, Sanofi-Aventis.

Since Copaxone has a gross margin of 85% to 90%, Cacciatore estimates this drug accounts for 16% to 18% of Teva's bottom line. He also believes there will be no generic competition for Copaxone in the next four to six years.

In market price terms, Copaxone sales topped $1.7 billion in 2007, after presenting 21% growth compared with the year 2006. Sales in the United States rose 19%, to $1.1 billion, and in Europe totaled $619 million, 24% over 2006 figures, thanks to two price hikes, the strengthening of the euro against the dollar and higher quantitative sales.

Recently analysts have been suggesting that Tysabri, a revived competing treatment for multiple sclerosis, won't pose much of a threat to Copaxone after all. Tysabri - made by Biogen Idec - is considered to be very effective but to have dangerous, potentially life-threatening, side effects. A recent report linked it with possible liver problems.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

realtime Irland 12,92€

http://www.rte.ie/business/markets/iseq.html

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.777 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 11:38:23

vielleicht beziehen die ja den Bernanki in die Probandengruppe für ALZ mit ein! Zur Zeit schüttet die kübelweise die $-Noten aus dem FED-Fenster, der kann das Papierzeug wohl nicht gebrauchen.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.871 von roboty am 12.03.08 11:45:36

was Busch für den Irak bedeutet Bernanki für den Finanzsektor! Ohne Elan's ALZ-Droge für Bernanki geht den Amis bald das Papier aus, das sie zum Drucken der $_Noten brauchen !

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.900 von roboty am 12.03.08 11:48:43

---Ich mochte Greenspan einfach lieber....
Diese Bartträger haben einfach immer was zu verbergen.....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.919 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 11:51:29

Diese Bartträger haben einfach immer was zu verbergen.....

Oh Poppie del Roboty, dat sieht jetzt schlecht aus für Euch

[Holgus]

BIIB und Elan sind vorbörslich bei gutem Volumen schon so satt im Plus, hab ich irgendwelche News verpaßt ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.620.310 von Holgus am 12.03.08 15:13:52

...nee-aber unverständlicherweise ist Biib deutlicher oben---die Attacke richtete sich gegen den Elan-teil von TY.....

Elan ist gefährlich für die Konkurrenz!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.620.418 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 15:20:16

Na ja, Elan +2,5 % und Biib 1,8 % ... welche Attacke ?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.617.919 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 12.03.08 11:51:29

Diese Bartträger haben einfach immer was zu verbergen.....

weibliche Instink oder Lebenserfahrung

[Poppholz]

So Leute.

Wie Ihr dem Kursverlauf entnehmen könnt, habe ich heute meinen Rückflug umgebucht.

Fliege jetzt am Freitag zurück nach Deutschland. Komme dort aber erst nach Börsenschluss an und bin somit erst ab Montag wieder bei Euch.

Eigentlich war der Rückflug für Mittwoch geplant, aber dass kann sich ja kein Mensch leisten, so lange weg zu sein. Die letzten 14 Tage haben mich ein Vermögen gekostet.

[Poppholz]

aber ich bin schon ein wenig stolz auf unsere Truppe hier.

Habt Ihr Euch mal die Umsätze in Frankfurt die letzten Tage angesehen?

Der Kurs pendelt um 20% und es werden maximal kleine vierstellige Aktienpakete (über den ganzen Tag) gehandelt.



Wenn wir nicht kaufen oder verkaufen, dann macht das auch kein anderer.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.621.565 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 16:38:06

FEIN;dass Du bald dem Kurs wieder auf die Beine hilfst...Grüsse!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.621.565 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 16:38:06

Kurs übrigens momentan knapp über $20,-

Schlusskurs knapp über $21,-

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.621.607 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 16:40:54

jetzt kann es schön nach oben gehen.

Alle "Zweifler" und "STOP LOSS SETZER" sind jetzt raus.

Wer nach den letzen Tagen noch drin ist, der bleibt auch drin, bis wir Kurse von $40,- haben.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.621.652 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 16:44:12

das werden auch die Kursmanipulierer einsehen müssen.

... und SHORT möchte ich jetzt wirklich nicht mehr sein, wenn ich es wäre

[surga]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.621.673 von Poppholz am 12.03.08 16:45:35

S H O R T ---bei UNSEREM SCHÄTZCHEN??????NIEMALS..............!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 206381 3/12/2008 11:38:10 AM
By: RJMCBEAR

Elan, working in conjunction with Wyeth, is entering late-stage tests for its AAB-001 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Elan is expected to release data from this phase II study during the middle of 2008.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/59949-elan-corp-to-be-a-bloc…

Now the real blockbuster within ELN lies in their experimental Alzheimer’s drug.

Elan, working in conjunction with Wyeth, is entering late-stage tests for its experimental treatment bapineuzumab, also known as AAB-001 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Elan is expected to release data from this phase II study during the middle of 2008. Elan’s scientific approach to treating Alzheimer’s disease [AD] focuses on the beta amyloid hypothesis, as it is believed that blocking the generation of beta amyloid in the brain or enhancing the clearance of beta amyloid will result in the successful treatment of AD patients.

The beta amyloid hypothesis asserts that beta amyloid is involved in the formation of the plaque that causes the disruption of thinking that is the hallmark of AD. This hypothesis is also the leading approach to development of therapeutic treatments that may fundamentally alter the progression of the disease, and evidence suggests that clearance of beta amyloid may lead to improved function in AD patients. Beta amyloid immunotherapy is the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease by inducing or enhancing the body’s own immune response in order to clear beta amyloid from the brain. Active immunization stimulates the body’s own immune system to manufacture anti beta amyloid antibodies that may attach to amyloid and clear it from the brain.

This, in turn, appears to reduce the build up of beta amyloid in the brain tissue of patients. Through a monoclonal antibody approach (passive immunization), synthetically engineered antibodies directed at beta amyloid are injected into the bloodstream and are thought to help reverse beta amyloid accumulation. So far the tests have been positive in animals.

Corey Davis, analyst for Natixis Bleichroeder projects that AAB-001 will quickly reach blockbuster levels after its 2010 market debut and will hit nearly $10 billion in annual sales within five years of its launch, the proceeds of which would be split between Elan and Wyeth. Davis believes that AAB-001 could exceed $14 billion in annual sales by 2017. This would break the record set by Pfizer’s Lipitor, the top-selling drug of all time, which fell just short of $13 billion in sales in 2006. Davis based his AAB-001 projections on an annual minimum price of $25,000 for the drug as well as heavy penetration in an expanding Alzheimer’s population, assuming that “this drug can truly alter the progression of the disease.”

But UBS analyst Roopesh Patel urges caution in assigning such high expectations for AAB-001. In November, Patel said that AAB-001 could achieve $20 billion in annual sales within five years of its launch, but the chances are very slim. Patel described Alzheimer’s research as a high-risk venture “littered with failed compounds.” It remains to be seen whether there will ever be an actual cure for Alzheimer’s. Davis also said that any drug that “melts” the amyloid plaque in early-stage Alzheimer’s patients “would amount to a cure, because it would halt the disease before it starts.” According to him, early studies with AAB-001 demonstrated the ability to melt amyloid plaque in animals, but results of later-stage human studies have not yet been made public. This could be early proof of the drug’s effective biological mechanism and target theory.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

HI!

Von Teva über Tevadenen traue ich ALLES zu!!:O

LN msg # 206725 3/13/2008 11:21:49 AM
By: godivatruffles6

article "There'll be no company on the planet like Teva" (Tysabri discussed)


http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=10003…


There'll be no company on the planet like Teva"
After a year in command, Teva CEO Shlomo Yanai has outfaced those who criticized his appointment, but his eyes are firmly on the future. And he has no regrets about his military career.
Gitit Pincas and Shiri Habib-Valdhorn 13 Mar 08 15:19
A year ago, on March 1, 2007, Shlomo Yanai's house in Raanana was inundated with bouquets of flowers. That's what happens when you become the skipper of the Israeli aircraft carrier Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA), one the world's top 20 pharmaceutical companies. One of the bouquets also had a gift attached to it - a cylinder with an authentic conductor's baton inside. It was a gift from Teva chairman Eli Hurvitz. "He said, 'Please take it, I'm not actively involved in managing the company," says Yanai in an interview with "Globes." "As for me, I don't believe I'll pass it on to my replacement; I'll take it with me."

Globes: And when will that happen? When will your replacement come along?

Yanai: "I don't know. I've only just started at Teva. Do you already expect me to be thinking about the end?"

The first year following a changeover in CEO is a crucial period in a company's life, certainly one the size of Teva. One year is no indication of the future, but Yanai has ended 2007 with a pretty good score in terms of meeting targets, increasing revenue, expanding into new regions, increasing market share, as well as stock performance. The stock price has soared by more than 40% since Yanai took over. What did he personally contribute to this ? It's hard to tell, and perhaps it doesn't even matter.

Yanai, for his part, weighs up all the figures and declares with satisfaction that the past year was "very good." Although he does not say so explicitly, it is as if he is proving wrong all those who foresaw a dire future for the company when he took over as CEO. He can now show them that he did not "ruin the company", he didn't "bring Teva down," nor did he "cause it to lose it competitive edge in the crowded generics market," or any of the other scenarios the pessimists had predicted.

The cherry on the cake came last month, when he also demonstrated his abilities as a strategist, abilities which Hurvitz frequently stressed as an advantage. And so, at a packed analysts conference in New York, he presented a detailed five-year plan, with sales and profit targets, and provided some color about the development of the pharmaceuticals market.

One issue overshadowed all the impressive figures - Teva's investment in a financial instrument called Auction Rate Securities (a debt instrument such as corporate or municipal bonds that have a long-term nominal maturity, but are refinanced as often as every week). Aside from this, Teva wore long-range lenses, with talk about a sales target of $20 billion in 2012, meaning double the current level, with profit reaching 20% of turnover - meaning $4 billion. All this is just from organic growth, which will be supported by complementary acquisitions amounting to tens of millions, or at the most, hundreds of millions of dollars. If Teva decides to make large acquisitions, the forecasts will be revised upward.

These results are far superior to those of any other generic company. "It's hard to compare us with other companies," says Yanai. "since in some respects, there's not even anyone to compare us with. There is no company like Teva, nor will there be another company on the planet that will produce drugs in the quantities we will in a few years time, or that it will have a generic R&D operation the size of Teva's."

Burden of proof

Yanai landed the position of Teva CEO after serving as CEO of agrochemical company MA Industries (Makhteshim Agan) (TASE: MAIN), which he joined in 2003. Before that he was a major general in the IDF, serving first as OC Southern Command, and later as head of the IDF Planning Branch. Makhteshim, which produces chemicals for crop protection, was having a tough year when Yanai left it, and this fact exacerbated fears about how Teva's future would look with him holding Hurvitz's baton.

Had Teva given the matter some thought - or at least thought along the right lines - it would have carried out the changeover between Yanai and his predecessor as CEO and president Israel Makov more smoothly, as befitting a company worth tens of billions of dollars - currently $39 billion. It might, perhaps, have prepared the market for the switch, and explained to the company's key investors why Yanai was the right choice. But the entire process was very messy - and came across as something they did sneakily and were not proud of at all.

Yanai is unwilling to talk about Makov's departure, and in any case this is all now water under the bridge. The question now is whether Yanai too has taken into account that the day might come when the Teva board will carry out a management shakeup and show him the door as well. Apparently, he has, and he feels entirely at ease about it. "A CEO of a public company is subject to a highly measurable system of results and achievements. He is subject to constant scrutiny," he says. "There are no breaks. Every quarter I am assessed by the board for what I have done, and by shareholders, managers, and staff as well."

If your performance falters, will it surprise you if you are asked to leave?

"No. I certainly won't be happy about it, but that is the duty of any board."

And is that what actually happened with Makov? A departure because of poor performance?

"It would not be right for me to put myself in his shoes and say things instead of him. It is inappropriate."

How are relations between you today? Do you still talk and consult each other?

"Yes, we're friends, we meet. I only got to know Israel in the trying circumstances of the changeover, but his attitude was very businesslike and correct. We continue to exchange views on all kinds of matters."

One of the fears that surfaced among investors as the result of the process was that Hurvitz, who served as CEO for 26 years, still retained executive powers, that he still pulled the strings as CEO, rather than as en executive chairman. Yanai denies this vigorously - as far as he is concerned, it's a complete myth. "Where did people get that from?" he muses out loud. "Does anyone have information that the board or Eli himself don't have? There's always speculation, commentary, and analysis, some of which reflects objective reality, while the rest are a figment of the beholder's imagination.

"Eli makes a point of maintaining this separation. He is involved in Teva, because the board is very active and meets once a month, and I myself update him regularly. But I can say, categorically, that Eli does not interfere in the day-to-day management of the company, even if he is informed and up to date with developments."

Yanai is not bothered by the talk at Makhteshim that he is a soloist, that he takes decisions on his own, that he has no time for anyone else, and that he wants to do things his way only. "I haven't heard all this," he claims, when we reel off the superlatives used about him in the past. "You undoubtedly heard it in the gossip rooms. I, on the other hand, heard good things about my time at Makteshim from the people who are the company's owners and who bear responsibility as board members. Speaking generally, I left behind a good company at Makhteshim, and I still think of it as such."

Yanai also presented a strategic plan at Makhteshim, a year after taking up his post, just like at Teva. This, apparently, is his forte. "I implemented it in the three years that followed," he says. "Despite all the criticism you mentioned, the company doubled in size, and people tend to forget this. The year in which I left was one single year in the evolution of a volatile industry, and the truth is that the agricultural industry is now thriving exactly as the forecasts said it would then. I don't follow events at Makhteshim now since I am 120% involved with Teva, and also for the prosaic reason that I don't even have the time for it."

Yanai had a lot of studying to do last year and has more to come. After all, what d Makhteshim and drugs have in common? Almost nothing. He had to learn everything. "The main area that I had to study and bring myself up to speed on was pharmaceuticals. I read materials, I talked to people both inside the company and elsewhere, and I visited all Teva's sites. I was an unusual student. I sat on my own with sometimes as many 20 lecturers - internal, and external from firms such as McKinsey. Naturally, in addition to all this, I had countless meetings with Eli, Israel, and all the team here, who rallied round to help."

So from February, the company has a strategic plan and targets. "It makes things easier for the employees," says Yanai. "We have 28,000 staff across the entire planet, and it is important that everyone knows which way this ship is headed."

Focusing on the capital market

Teva is the people's share. That, at least, is how it is commonly described. It has made an impressive climb over the years, more than 8,000% in total since 1990, so $10,000 invested then could be worth $825,000 today. Yet despite this, Yanai still does not have a rapport with investors. He leaves the work with the capital market and investor relations to Teva's CFO, Dan Suesskind, and the company's managers in the US. He himself has remained, to large extent, unexposed so far. "Internal company matters were at the top of my agenda this year. There were complicated launches, and also attention focused on the acquisition of the Merck generics division, which ultimately didn't go through," says Yanai. "But the capital market is an inseparable part of a CEO's duty, certainly at Teva. I will expand my contacts this year, since essentially, my shareholders are also my bosses."

People often talk about the secret of Teva's success. Have you, as someone who came from the outside, managed to crack it?

"Maybe. It's a combination of several things. Firstly, Teva is outstanding in that it has a long-term strategy, in the real sense of the word, and not in the way it is bandied about all the time. The second thing is that it has a practical attitude. This does not mean there's no internal criticism. There certainly is. Go out into the yard and take a look, there's no shortage of gossip in Teva either, but everything is businesslike. The third thing is that there are some fantastic people here, and the fourth thing is modesty. We're not ascetics and we haven't made an ideology out of it. We don't get up in the morning and pour a bit of sand on ourselves to make us feel humble, but look around - we don't have swank offices, the modesty impacts on all our decision making. We have not let ourselves become dazzled, and the sense of pride is in the right place."

The coming year, 2008, will be an extremely challenging for an additional reason. Yanai will part company with two of Teva's top managers - Suesskind, who is due to retire after 32 years of service, and George Barrett, who was a candidate for the post of CEO while the company was looking for a replacement for Makov, and served as Yanai's unofficial no. 2 (or official, depends whom you ask). "The departures are unrelated," says Yanai, "I am grateful to George for being with me over the past year. It helped me a lot."

It was claimed that Barrett was ruled out as a CEO because he didn't want to move to Israel.

"Even if that was a factor, I'm not sure that it was the sole reason. Ultimately, they chose me, not him, and he decided to move forward with another company. There is a constant movement of executives, and when a new CEO comes in, more notice is taken of it. There are those who were aiming to become CEOs, and then leave the moment someone else gets the job, and there some who have other reasons. I have to say that all these changeovers get a lot more attention here than they do in the US. I was never asked these questions there."

If you wanted to move up, there isn't anywhere else to move to here. Teva is the largest company in Israel.

"I don't think about it. At my age, I don't think I can expect to have another career beyond Teva. After I retire, I will probably spend more time at home in my garden and with my grandchildren. I might even do a bit of painting."

Yanai is married to Ahuva (56), who is CEO of Matan -Your Way to Give, an organization founded by Shari Arison, which advises corporations, on social responsibility. Their eldest son Rafi (34) is a software engineer who works as R&D team leader at Zend Technologies Ltd.. Their daughter Michal (32) is also the mother of their two grandchildren Shira and Aya. Their youngest child is Ariel (22), who was recently discharged from active military service in the IDF Tank Corps, "and as we speak, is making his way from Costa Rica to Nicaragua," says Yanai proudly. He has lived in Raanana since 1972, but is due to move to Moshav Ramat Raziel in the Judean Hills, after he recently bought a farm there.

Competitive environment

Teva beats other generic companies for both the number of prescriptions issued and for its generic drugs backlog, which totals $100 billion in terms of brand product sales. And what are its challenges for the coming years? "First, to reach the volume of sales we set ourselves. Second, to put into effect all the launches and sales resulting from our products. To develop them, reach the market shares we've set ourseleves, and do this in a highly competitive environment. So this is a daily challenge, not just a yearly one. A further challenge will be to lay the foundations that will make this growth possible, meaning the support for our growth engines," says Yanai.

At present, the generic part of Teva's activity is larger than the innovation, the development of ethical drugs, one of these growth engines. "Generics is our core business and will continue to be in the coming years," says Yanai. "We see it as our field of expertise, and it will continue to be the hub of our activity. Alongside it we have an interesting innovation business which is developing, and we have a lot of hopes and expectations for it." Teva has said in the past, that from the end of the decade, it will launch at least one innovative drug every year.

By the end of the decade, Teva will have grown yet another arm - biogenerics, which is, in effect, a hybrid of generics and biology. "It's the next thing in pharmaceuticals," says Yanai. "Drugs based on synthetic-organic chemistry are reaching the end of the road, and we can see this by the falling number of new drugs receiving approval every year. On the other hand, biology, or drugs based on live organisms, are growing at a faster rate. The current debate on this issue is complex. The question isn't settled, including in terms of regulation, but we're gearing ourselves up.

"One of the moves we recently took was the acquisition of CoGenesys which has developed a technology that fuses human albumin with biological molecules. Since the patents in the field will only start lapsing towards 2013-2014, drugs will not become available en-masse until then. We believe, however, that our first biogeneric drug will come onto the market in Europe before then, in 2009.”

In the meantime, the sole best selling drug to come out of Teva’s ethical arm is Copaxone, for the treatment of multiple sclerosis. Sales of Copaxone totaled $1.7 billion in the first quarter, yet despite this some analysts have voiced concern recently that it may have stopped growing. Some even fear a strengthening of Tysabri, the drug jointly developed by Biogen Idec Inc. (Nasdaq: BIIB) and Elan Corp. plc (NYSE: ELN), which was recently recalled following a number of deaths, and returned to the shelves under restrictions.

“Every so often, they tell us that the growth has stopped and that Tysabri will overtake Copaxone,” says Yanai. “Or they think that another player will enter the market and challenge our patents. Well, Copaxone is protected by patent through 2014, unless someone challenges the patent earlier. And even if that does happen, the law prescribes a waiting period of 36 months before the challenger can bring his product onto the market. We are ‘Mr. Generics’, and so when the generic era arrives, you can be sure we’ll already have a few ideas.

“Beyond that, Tysabri is a very strong drug, very potent, with severe side effects. Therefore, it will continue to be prescribed in cases where other drugs don’t work, and they need something strong. It has caused death in the past, and there was also talk recently linking it to skin cancer. Now there’s a case concerning damage to the liver. Tysabri has a limited market and I do not believe its market share will exceed 10%.”

You mentioned CoGenesys earlier. What are you missing now, as far as acquisitions are concerned? And what’s happening with the German market, where your presence is negligible?

“The five-year plan we presented consists almost entirely of organic growth. Large acquisitions were not included in the outline we presented, but the acquisition strategy exists; we simply didn’t present it. The cash we have is earmarked, first and foremost, precisely for this. Germany is the largest country in the generics market in Europe and the third largest in the world, We have marked it as one the of the countries we need to grow in, and we’re constantly looking at possibilities there, acquisitions included.”

And what about an acquisition of Teva itself? You could be attractive to a company like Pfizer, for example, or other large companies whose generic business is weak.

“I find it hard even to imagine that happening. But Teva is not for sale.”

A military career in focus

“Anyone who reaches senior positions in the military, is probably aiming to reach the top of the pyramid,” says Yanai, about the end of his illustrious military career. “I had completed a tour of duty as Head of Planning, after serving as OC Southern Command, and I saw myself as a candidate for the post of deputy chief of staff, as a step on the way to becoming chief of staff. When they chose someone else, I had to decide whether I wanted to wait, or whether to take the hint. This is a matter of conjecture now, since the choice was unmistakably clear. I decided that this was the time to end my military service and make a fresh start.”

When Yanai says “someone else” he refers to the appointment by former Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon of Gabi Ashkenazi as deputy chief of staff. “I stayed in the army all those years, not because I wanted, from the outset, to pursue a military career. I never had any plans at all to stay in the IDF. I completed my compulsory service when the Yom Kippur war broke out, and I was wounded quite badly during the war and lost many of my friends.

“My first injury was on October 8, 1973, a traumatic day in the Yom Kippur War, when the IDF attempted to launch an all-out attack. I was wounded by shrapnel after my tank took a direct hit by antitank missile, and I was evacuated to Beersheva.”

What was your role then?

“Good question. It’s hard to tell. I began the war as a deputy platoon commander, and after a few hours there were just a few tanks left. There were no longer any roles by this stage, we called each other by name. My battalion consisted of 13 tanks, after starting the war with 45 tanks. In any event, after two or three days in Beersheva I decided that it was not as dramatic as it looked to the doctors, and since they wouldn’t discharge me, I slipped out of the sick bay, and somehow found my way back to my regiment in Sinai.

“They were, naturally, delighted. I was given a tank and I fought with the battalion. We crossed the canal and the Chinese Farm, and went deep into Egypt to a location which was one of the furthest West that we reached. And it was there that I really did get hit, this time by a missile that landed inside our tank. Three of my crew were killed and I was badly wounded. I managed to climb out of the tank but I was suffered severe burns.”

How did they evacuate you?

“You couldn’t land a helicopter at the site where we were, so we traveled over the bridges and I was evacuated by helicopter from there to Refidim - then the capital of Sinai - and by aircraft from there to Beersheva, to the very same place I was taken after the previous injury. Inside the emergency room I met the same nurse who received me the first time and she was really mad at me. There then followed long months of surgery and then rehabilitation of my burns.

“I subsequently decided that I would contribute a few years to assist in the rehabilitation of the IDF and the Tank Corps in particular, since we were in a profound crisis. The IDF entered the war with 2,000 tank crews and ended it with 800 crews no longer part of the standing forces. More than one third were killed, or wounded to a degree that ruled them out of further service. For the next two to three years afterward there wasn’t any manpower from which to choose battalion commanders, and the system didn’t feel the shortage until a decade later.”

And so, according to Yanai, “The years turned into more years and more after that. When I look back at my long service, most of which was spent in field units, and included involvement in virtually every significant thing the IDF did during those years, I feel satisfaction and pride.” Yanai thought his military career was over when he retired in 2002, and then the door was thrown open once more. “In 2006, when they were busy looking for a replacement for Dan Halutz as chief of staff, I received a phone call from someone senior, whose name I will not reveal, who asked me if I wanted to put my name forward. I said that under the present circumstances, I wasn’t interested. It happened in February, when I was in the US preparing to take over at Teva. I took up my post shortly after.”

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 12, 2008

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2008

[bernie55]

@Elanites + Elaniacs

..gerade in Österreich angekommen und just macht ELAN schöne Sprünge.....

...sollte das das Patentrezept für stegende ELAN - Kurse sein ??????
> POPPIE < kommt zurück aus dem Thailandarbeisurlaub und > BERNIE < fährt zum Skifahren nach A.!!!!!

TIME WILL TELL


...haltet die Stellung, liebe Grüße...bis denn
bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 206740 3/13/2008 11:37:59 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

Elan and Real Value

Elan is nearing the end of march. The Tysabri runrate at the end of this quarter for Tysabri will be roughly $175m-$180m per quarter with about $125m accruing to Elan. Elan's revenue runrate as a whole will be about $285m per quarter heading into Q2 (recording about $265m for Q1.)

Teva and Serono are fierce competitors and Biogen is conflicted, but stories of wheelchair bound and sight-impaired people regaining their feet and sight are too powerful for counter-marketing to be effective over the long run.

When the stock price drops $3b-$4b but the underlying business is improving by 10% revenue runrate during the same 6 week period, then shareholders should take heart not become deflated. There is more to Elan than fundamentals improving, too:

There is the pharma world's greatest pipeline to consider: several late stage Alzheimer's drugs (AAB-001, ELND-005, and the Lilly GS inhibitor), a couple of small molecules (ELND-002, ELND-004), Tysabri for oncology indications (P2 starting shortly), a large number of nano drugs in the pipeline including pending approvals for 2 (including expected blockbuster palperidone palmitate), and soon to be clinical Parkinson's and pain therapies.

So, fundamentals are superb and getting better while the real value driver of any biopharm company, the pipeline, is the best in the industry.

Just hold on and wait and we will all be rewarded.

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.635.457 von bernie55 am 13.03.08 20:26:19

halt da haste was vergessen, birgit muss nach ...( hab vergessen wohin) dann gibt es obendrein die zulassung (siehe chrons).

hat den nachteil das es hier extrem ruhig ist, auch nicht so nett.

aber irgentwie muss da was dran sein, werd euch mal näher observieren und meine anlagen entsprechend ausrichten.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.636.885 von GuHu1 am 13.03.08 23:32:02

--Gute Nacht GUHU....PS. Ich möchte aber immer nach Thailand-und nicht mehr auf die Seychellen(da sind mir zuviel Bonzenrussren mit ihren flachgesichtigen Mädels.....)Ich hoffe,das ist für Euch auch OK....

...oder Surga--hast Du einen guten Indonesien -Tip für mich für nächstes Weihnachten falls Elan bei ca.40 steht.....??Schöne Landschaft ,türkises Meer,leckere kleine Restaurants,Stille-----und in einigem Abstand Kneipen + Discos für unsere Jungs(20,22,24 jährig)----Gibts das??????????????????????

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.636.967 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 13.03.08 23:55:51

die Insel Lombok (Nachbarinsel von Bali) wäre eine alternativ. Zu Not können wir auch Bali nehmen.
Oder Nach Nord Celebes (Nord Sulawesi).

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.636.967 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 13.03.08 23:55:51

Meine Söhne waren begeistert von Bali

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.445 von surga am 14.03.08 07:56:35

Hallo ELANITES und ELANIACS !!!!

...zur Not könnten wir anstatt des BIG MEETINGS ja auch eine kleine Weltreise machen..
.....so um den Globus....

liebe Grüße, ich darf gleich ein bisschen Skifahren....

bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.445 von surga am 14.03.08 07:56:35

Lombok hört sich gut an....google ich mal...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.484 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 14.03.08 08:04:50

google nach:
senggigi lombok

[Holgus]

Bali, Thailand ... Weltreise ?

Sagt mal Leute, so langsam hebt Ihr ab, odäär ??

Sollte Elan irgendwann mal dieses Jahr auf 40ig ($) steigen, reicht es bei mir grad mal für `ne Butterfahrt nach Helgoland

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.538 von surga am 14.03.08 08:16:22

Google mal nach ....

Helgoland Düne

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.857 von Holgus am 14.03.08 09:02:05

vielleicht hast Du Recht, Holgus! Wenn Dollar so weiter sinkt, haben wir gar nicht mehr von inserem Gewinn.
Dann reicht auch grad Helgoland Düne

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.637.990 von surga am 14.03.08 09:15:39

Na ja, mit günstigem Dollar liegt dann vielleicht eine Kreuzfahrt durch den Dollarraum drin ... bezahlt man auf den Bahamas nich auch in Dollar ? Oder auf Hawaii ???

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.638.052 von Holgus am 14.03.08 09:20:54

....da finden wir schon was nettes....Börse macht müde----ewig rauf und runter----ist mir echt zu anstrengend.....ich hoffe ,die ganze Geschichte stabilisiert sich langsam mal...elan stabilisiert sich gut um 20$....

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.643.943 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 14.03.08 16:24:28

Hi Birgit, für Dich zur Info, Abenteuer auf Sulawesi


http://magazine.web.de/de/themen/reise/fernweh/asien/5563626…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.651.000 von surga am 15.03.08 18:40:30

Dank Dir....

[Poppholz]

Hallo Zusammen,

so, jetzt bin ich wieder in Deutschland im Büro.

Dann wollen wir doch mal sehen, wie wir die Kuh vom Eis bekommen.

Wer sorgt dafür, dass der Wechselkurs $ zu € wieder einigermaßen paßt?

(geht ja gar nicht)

Dann muss die PR-Abteilung bei ELAN ausgetauscht werden, wer macht das?

(geht ja auch nicht)

[HAL11000]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.659.161 von Poppholz am 17.03.08 12:28:28

Mal wieder typisch: erst "Entwarnung" von S&P dann die Bear Stearns Meldung sauber am Freitag plaziert, damit die letzten Gutgläubigen abgezockt werden. Siemens verrechnet sich knapp um ein 1 Mrd. Kann ja mal vorkommen. Warum tut man sich diesen Irrsinn eigentlich an? Solange sich ELAN um die $ 20 hält soll's einem recht sein, könnte man meinen. Zur Zeit steigt der Euro aber schneller als ELAN. Es stinkt.

Und das alles am St. Patrick's Day. Hoffentlich gönnt Ihr Euch Kinders heute was Schwarzes zum ir. Nationalfeiertag. Ich werde es tun.

[Holgus]

Das ganze Börsengeschen kann einem wirklich Angst machen im Moment ... wenn man sich BSC anschaut ... über 80% Minus schon vorbörslich. Au weia ... und das nach dem dicken Kursrutsch am Freutag ... wer da investiert ist, kann einem wirklich leid tun.

Hoffentlich hält Elan sich wacker.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.659.886 von Holgus am 17.03.08 13:28:53

Bloss nicht mehr ins Depot gucken:O....War heute in meiner Heimat auf einer Beerdigung......war Alles ungefähr so traurig wie der Markt heute....da muss sich unser Elanschätzchen einfach etwas mehr anstrengen.....bin diesbezüglich optimistisch....

ZUR FRAGE WAS BZGL:AAB001 "SPEKTAKULÄRE"ERGEBNISSE WÄREN SCHREIBT ER:

Author: liposghost



first one must define spectacular. If you expect grandpa to be on senior jeopardy, then you will be disappointed.
But if you think like me that some percentage will have long term disease stability, then spectacular may well happen.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.666.542 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.03.08 21:53:54

Irgendwie klingt das von Lipo nich mehr so überzeugt ... jedenfalls relativiert sich der Begriff "spektakulär" ein wenig.

So langsam mach ich mich mit der Tatsache vertraut, dieses Jahr auch noch den Rest meiner Kohle in Elan zu verlieren

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.668.047 von Holgus am 18.03.08 08:55:35

Quatsch!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.668.278 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.03.08 09:19:15

Na ja, ob es quatsch ist wird sich zeigen. Ich brauch zum Jahresende mindestens einen Sprung auf 46-47 Dollar ... um +/- 0 rauszukommen.

Meinst Du wirklich, das ist noch wahrscheinlich ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.668.338 von Holgus am 18.03.08 09:25:26

Ich hoffe doch SEHR---im Sommer werden wir es spätestens wissen....diese blöde Bankenkrise hat uns natürlich durch - 35% schon hart getroffen...

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.668.373 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.03.08 09:29:09

Eben ... und wenn sie Elan noch auf 15 Dollar drücken, mit ABB-GoodNews macht das Teil dann einen Sprung auf 25 Dollar ... das wär dann schon "spektakulär".

Nur leider weit von meinem Ziel entfernt.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.668.560 von Holgus am 18.03.08 09:43:46

...das ist das BLÖDE an den Optionen------Du weisst nie,welche auch externen Faktoren den gedachten Zeitplan durcheinander bringen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Biogen Von heute:

Author: okmick



Biogen CC
Very confident re Tysabri.Again said goal is 100,000 by end 2010.Also said that if the run rate didnt increase from 2007 then even at that 75,000 would be reached end 2010.Thought that the 100,000 is not only achievable but may turn out to be modest.Obviously this depends on the safety holding up (in line with the label).This doesnt mean no PML .
Delighted with JM comments.

[Holgus]

Was für ein unausstehliches fettes Arschloch ist dieser Mullen eigentlich ???

Er erwartet weitere PML-Fälle bei Tysabri .... tz tz ... wo hat die Gurkennase eigentlich formulieren gelernt ??

Und das Ding steht nun wieder bei Elan in den Schlagzeilen. Ich werd noch zum Mörder irgendwann

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.677.562 von Holgus am 18.03.08 20:08:38

.....Du willst ja nicht mit mir nach Boston fahren....--sonst könnten wir die mal aufmischen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.677.562 von Holgus am 18.03.08 20:08:38

......ausserdem hat er so sinngemäss gesagt,er hält die 100000 Patienten bis 2010 realistisch auch falls es weitere PML-Fälle gäbe----er will eben Avonex aufrecherhalten-----Er wird es nicht aquf Dauer schaffen weil TY einfach besser ist!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.678.372 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.03.08 21:09:31

Birgit, in dem Reuters-Artikel hat er gesagt "Er erwartet weitere PML-Fälle".

Warum nicht gleich "Ich kanns kaum erwarten, wenn die nächsten Fälle endlich auftreten" ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN182046522008…


Mit Dir allein nach Boston ? Hmm ... da muß ich tatsächlich nochmal drüber nachdenken

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.678.906 von Holgus am 18.03.08 22:00:53

....es scheint schon verkürzt wiedergegeben worden zu sein.....aber ich vermute,dass Mullen das so einkalkuliert hat!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.679.110 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.03.08 22:23:27

Wo liegt eigentlich Boston ?

Irgendwo zwischen Hamburch und Bremen, odäär ??

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.679.251 von Holgus am 18.03.08 22:41:40

....so ungefähr--- Guten Morgen in die Runde!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...er war auf der Cohen Konferenz und hat Mullen von Biogen mal ein paar kritische Fragen gestellt--das passte ihnen wohl gar nicht....

ELN msg # 208778 3/19/2008 1:31:12 AM
By: goodtoreadthis---vom Investorvillage-Board

Re: You can imagine next year's BIIB's presentation at Cowen

I got call at home. BIIB IR is tracking down -who let that guy into Cowen. Big time upset at very top of BIIB.

Gee - a few fair questions about why action to clearly identify Tysarbri as an MS treatment option on the BIIB website; and to clearly point out that -in MS - there has been zero incidence of PML for Tysabri monotherapy seems to have a few personalities in Cambridge VERY steamed.

And to think I toned down all of my questions before going to the presentation this morning. I'd hate to see these folks undergoing hard hitting cross examination questions in a witness chair. They'd faint.

To me this was firm ;but not harsh questioning. Just a mild pay back for Ectrims 05.

Wait till next year.

[Holgus]

Maaaaaaaaan ist das hier still geworden im Board.

Selbst Poppi, der heimgekehrte Rächer der Entnervten läßt nix mehr von sich hören. Obwohl er doch die Wende einleiten wollte.
Sachma, seit Ihr alle ausgestiegen aus Elan ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.685.366 von Holgus am 19.03.08 14:36:24

NIEMAND ist hier ausgestiegen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aber Börse ist frustig in letzter Zeit + ich konzentriere mich mehr auf das "normale" Leben ---ausserdem ist es ja erst im sommer richtig spannend....GRÜSSE!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.685.366 von Holgus am 19.03.08 14:36:24

niemand ist ausgestiegen
zurzeit ist alles frustierend :O:O:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.686.098 von surga am 19.03.08 15:20:55

Frustrierend ?

Ach, ich fang langsam an das Chaos zu genießen. Wollte schon immer mal feststellen, ob ich eine perverse Ader hab.

Ich glaub, ich hab sie gefunden

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.685.366 von Holgus am 19.03.08 14:36:24

hier ist niemand ausgestiegen.

Schau Dir mal die Umsätze in Frankfurt und Stuttgart an. Daran kannst Du schon sehen, dass von uns keiner ausgestiegen ist.



Außerdem bei den Kursen auszusteigen macht ja auch überhaupt keinen Sinn.

Momentan ist es aber auch müßig, hier zu schreiben. Das der Kurs dort steht, wo er nicht stehen sollte ist allen bekannt. Ein Einbruch von über 30% in den letzten Wochen, ohne dass etwas negatives passiert ist. Unglaublich.

Dies ist aber allen bekannt und somit braucht dies auch nicht erwähnt werden (habe ich ja auch schon oft genug getan).

Wir warten einfach ab und lassen die Zeit verstreichen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.687.162 von Poppholz am 19.03.08 16:27:20

...so it is...!Gehe jetzt zu einem netten Freundinnen-Kneipen-Abend...Börse kann mich mal...bis morgen!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.689.286 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.03.08 18:50:34

ELN msg # 209171 3/19/2008 5:01:49 PM
By: goodtoreadthis

Cowen Alz Panel rates aab-001 or Bap 'most promising; Elan 005 and Dimebon tied for second

48% of the audience and 50% of the medical panel estimated that BAP is "most promising" alz drug; with Elan 005 and Dimebon tied for second at 25%.

Dr Greenburg caught Dr Spirling and Salloway off guard ( based on facial reaction) when he ID'd Dr Spirling and Salloway as investigators in Bap trial.

Dr Spirling said without equivocation - there will be no issue with efficacy with bap. 75% of the medical panel predicted that there will be statistically signif efficacy qcroos all arms of the bap trial. Dr Salloway was only panel member to comment on early registration and he said - the FDA is NOT likely to approve based on this trial- it is too small in size and there are safety concerns that FDA will want to pay attention to and the larger phase 3 should alleviate those concerns.

Dr Spirling " the ONLY concern is toxicity NOT efficacy for this Bap treatment."

Dr Greenburg " APOE 4 carriers have a ' spontaneous reaction" to the monoclonal antibody, may be the ONLY ones who experience inflammation; but also the ONLY ones guaranteed to transition to full dementia across the board without treatment of some type."

Greenburg " Hemmoragic Stroke is NOT AN ISSUE in humans with Bap based on what we know NOW."

Spirling " On these test results, we will see BAP moving abeta out of brain- side effects are NOT expected to be huge concern."

Greenburg asked this Q " When Bap is stopped in patients that show vasogenic edema and then re-started what does that signify " Answer - " I don't know."

Question posed to audience and Medical Panel " Will BAP be a disease modifying drug ?" Audience - 20% yes ' 39% - probably yes. Panel 25% - yes 50% - probably yes

CAUTION raised by Greenburg - because Aricept does provide short term benefit and Aricept is the placebo treatment here - it is tougher to show/prove Bap effect.

Spirling - MRI data sometimes goes in opposite direction for issues of cognition.

Salloway - " we have to insure that we do not over reach in terms of expectations for results. If we just get a positive signal - that is great"

Spirling " The standard should be - IF an amyloid modifying drug is improving cognition - then HALLELUJAH "


NTB standard question - Would NTB standard of measure be sufficient for approval ?

Spirling - " FDA does NOT need 2 measures of positives if this is a LAZARUS drug. If efficacy is shown on NTB that will satisfy FDA - is what our discussions with FDA tell us."

SPIRLING & SALLOWAY SAID " Please be mindful, this has NEVER happened before !! We don't think NTB will be an issue."

BAP Phase 3 - "patients to be enrolled are more toward the mild AD end of spectrum, becuase 18 month test time puts the patient too far along in disease progession to get meaningful result against placebos."

Bap has an enrollment advantage given positive press it has received ( might be nice if this were true for Tysabri - but obviously this is my little note addition); but competition for patients is VERY strong right now.


ELND 005

QUESTION - will 005 prove effective ? yes - 27% audience -33% yes medical panel and 33% probably yes medical panel.

Spirling - clincal data says - YES.

Salloway - I'm VERY entusiastic at this point.

Spirling - this is a pill and we have no problem giving pills to patients as many as 3 or 4 times per day.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

HI Ihr!

Die Kurse machen keinen Spass--aber nicht demotivieren lassen--denn das wollen die mit den grossen Taschen---Also nicht so viel auf die Kurse gucken-lieber skilaufen,Blumen pflanzen,Krimis lesen,Wein trinken,Ostereier suchen.... Grüsse!

PS.Alles wird GUT!!

[Poppholz]

Irland und London sind schön im grünen Bereich.

In Frankfurt passiert gar nichts.

Wie denn auch?

Wenn einer von uns noch Kohle gehabt hätte, dann hätte (hat) er auch in den letzten Tagen gekauft.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.698.527 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 15:51:59

der Kurs geht über 7% hoch und in Frankfurt sind über beide WKN schon 300 Aktien gehandelt worden.

[dasHaendchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.698.527 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 15:51:59

>Wenn einer von uns noch Kohle gehabt hätte, dann hätte (hat) er auch in den letzten Tagen gekauft.<



Wie Recht du hast, wie Recht Du hast.

Gekauft habe ich schon, aber nicht mehr BioTech-Aktien (trotz dieses nach wie vor interessanten Unternehmens mit seinen guten Zukunftspotenzialen; Ich will in diesem Sektor eher abwarten und mir nicht mehr weiter die Finger verbrennten, äh verkohlen.), sondern eher IT-lastige Titel.

Gruß,
d.H.

[Poppholz]

das sieht doch aus, als wenn hier bald der Korken aus der Flasche fliegen würde.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.699.201 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 16:39:26

bei $20,50 scheinen wir uns erst einmal einzupendeln.

Ist aber schon ein schöner Anstieg gewesen, weil so richtig groß sind die Umsätze auch nicht gewesen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.699.405 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 16:54:57

da es nun einmal mehr Spass macht, bei steigenden Kursen auf den Chart zu sehen, bin ich heute auch ein wenig mehr bei der Sache.



Wir haben die $21,- Markte überwunden.

Mal sehen wann die Drückerkolonne kommt.

Allerdings sollten sich die Personen in den letzten Tagen auch reichlich bedient haben, so dass wir hier hoffentlich auch mal ein paar ruhigere Tage erleben sollten.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.699.995 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 17:42:48

ECHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Verdient hätten wir es uns.....gehe jetzt singen......schon mal lustvollen Karfreitag wünsch ich Euch!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 209470 3/20/2008 11:39:15 AM
By: liposghost

Re: WHY

did you not read GTRTs report from the Cowen AD forum yesterday. The room was standing room only. Elan/Wye were the show leaders far and away.
No leak required, only ten minutes of market were left whan it ended.
Jive will add more from there soon.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.700.103 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 20.03.08 17:51:24

Irland hat jetzt bei €14,85 geschlossen.

Die haben heute 3,5 mio Aktien umgesetzt.



Den Schlusskurs halte ich aber für einen Fehler beim Broker, aber wer weiß das schon so genau. Vor zwei drei Wochen haben wir schließlich viel höher gestanden.

(alles ist möglich)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.700.103 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 20.03.08 17:51:24

USA stehen übrigens bei $21,40

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELAN CORP. PLC
Last Price % Change 52 Week Low 52 Week High Today's High Today's Low Last Trade Size
14.85 +18.80% 9.50 18.35 14.85 12.00 568,064


aus http://www.rte.ie/business/markets/iseq.html

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Fonds kaufen sich ein...http://www.thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=eln

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.700.275 von Poppholz am 20.03.08 18:06:11

Poppi, am 21. März ist doch Optionstag. Ich sehe, dass 25$ sehr dick bestück sind (bei Call als auch Put)
Was bedeutet für MM wenn der Kurs am Freitag viel tiefer als 25$ liegt?

[Poppholz]

Schlusskurs über $20,50.

Sehr schön.

Mit den Optionen ist das ja immer so eine Sache. Gerae mit den CALLs und PUTs bei der 25,-

Ich lasse die Finger davon. Allen anderen wünsche ich natürlich alles gute.

[bernie55]

@Birgit+Poppie+surga und Elanites+Elaniacs

..ich fühle immer mehr, dass sich unsere Geduld auszahlen wird.......

....auch wenn ich zur Zeit in Austria weile und ich die Welt in den letzten Tagen sehr oft von oben betrachte ( - sieht alles so klein aus -), bin ich in Gedanken bei euch und schicke einfach mal, so spontan wie ich bin,

" kleine Ostergrüße "......

bernie55

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.700.419 von surga am 20.03.08 18:20:41

Moin Leute ... da hab ich gestern mal nicht ein bißchen in den Markt schauen können ... und was passiert ? Der Kurs steigt massiv an.

Freu

Warum wir allerdings so gestiegen sind, versteh ich nich so ganz. Auf der einen Seite schon wieder so eine komische "Liver-Warning" und auf der anderen Seite so `ne undurchschaubare Intervention der Iren ... was bedeutet das ?


Was bedeutet für MM wenn der Kurs am Freitag viel tiefer als 25$ liegt?

Bei den Optionen sind die 25er Calls, aber auch die 25er Puts dieses mal am stärksten.

Die 25er Calls werden wertlos verfallen. Aber die Puts bringen richtig Geld, es sei denn, die puschen den Preis auf 25ig rauf, dann verfallen auch die wertlos.

Mal schaun was heute passiert.


Ansonsten, Bernie vernascht im Moment Skiosterhäsinnen, Birgit ist noch so zu und singt deshalb andauernd, und Poppie kuriert bestimmt seine thailändische Geschlechtskrankheit aus ... alles wird gut

[Holgus]

Upps ... anscheinend ist USA heute auch geschlossen.

Na dann mal allen ein fröhliches Osterfest ... auf das sich in der nächsten Woche der Trend fortsetzt

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.704.235 von Holgus am 21.03.08 11:57:03

....an Ostern--und dann so FRECH.......Was heisst hier "ZU"--also echt.............


Übrigens die Leberwarnung heisst nur dass die Europaer dieses Label ,das bei Chrons Eingang gefunden hat,auch haben wollen....mehr nicht..!


MACHTS GUT -IHR LIEBEN--Liebe Grüsse!Birgit

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.704.668 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 21.03.08 13:23:09

Was heisst hier "ZU"

"ZU" ist eine Umschreibung von "Merlot-Gesättigt" ... oder warum die vielen Leberwarnungen ... lol

Ich fahr jetzt Kaffeetrinken ... jupps

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.704.801 von Holgus am 21.03.08 13:50:39

---ok--das akzeptiere ich dann mal so


Prost

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.703.750 von bernie55 am 21.03.08 10:09:06

viel Spass noch beim Schneeschaufeln in Austria

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.704.235 von Holgus am 21.03.08 11:57:03

Holgus, danke für Deine Erklärung

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210008 3/21/2008 8:45:07 PM
By: nugget

Carl Icahn says he will be actively involved again in Biogen

On Nightly Business Report (3/21) Icahn stated that he will be active in two upcoming proxy votes- Motorola and Biogen. Icahn feels that with the recent financial turmoil in the market and the general disclosure of management pay unrelated to performance he hopes to have allies among hedge funds and pension funds for his upcoming proxy battles, The last time Icahn rattled Biogen, the stock price of Eln rose. Add that to the many other positive Eln news items that should be circulating around proxy and we'll see some stock activity that will move Eln off the ceiling.;)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 209924 3/21/2008 12:07:28 PM
By: intelligent_rat

New proposed protocol,,,use Tysabri first (my protocol).

I have not posted much since the Igen/Roche war, then cave in by Roche, which was great, but took a few years to pan out.

Watching the Elan/Biogen "partnership", there are some similarities, but not as severe.

The FDA and the lawyers run medicine now. They have the risk benefit of Tysabri all wrong. Drugs far more dangerous in MS are allowed free rein, and do not work as well as Tysabri.

Here is what makes sense,,,,,,,,,,,,

Since Tysabri is about 12-14 times more effective than Avonex and more than 20x more effective than Copaxone,,,,,,,,,,,IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT TYSABRI IS VASTLY MORE EFFECTIVE.
(Guys, it is NOT just "twice" as effective. Avonex is only 5% more effective than placebo and Copaxone is only 3% more effective than placebo,,,,,,,,while Tysabri reduces lesions by over 90%, or almost 70% over placebo,,,,,,,THERE IS NO COMPARISON).

Since over 20,000 patients are on Tysabri with no new cases of PML,,,,we can deduce that the drug is safe for the time frame that patients are on the drug and no side effects. If new cases show up at say 1 year, or 2 years, then we can cautiously deduce that the risk is extremely low before that time.

Since MS does kill through secondary causes, the so called "experts" need to stop saying MS is not fatal. A 25 years reduction is life expectancy is one of the more fatal types of diseases.

Realize that MS is totally mired in politics and legalities,,,just look at the "helpful" MS websites. The people running these "helpful" societies have agendas and conflicting interests.

THE ABOVE REASONS or lack of understanding,,,,is why Tysabri is over controlled and restricted out of proportion to other drugs. A reasonable protocol can be made to made to take advantage of Tysabri and keep risk low.

*********************
Protocol. USE TYSABRI AS FIRST LINE DRUG. Stop the brain damage, paralysis, numbness, extreme pain, blindness, incontinence, mental disorders, senility, etc. Stop the secondary diseases that come with impairment of body functions that end up killing the patient.

If the first patients currently on Tysabri monotherapy appear at 2 years, then treat up until that time, and then stop Tysabri if worried about PML. (No one got PML after stopping Tysabri).

Benefits even after stopping Tysabri. Patients that were on Tysabri and then stopped it,,,continue to have reduced lesions four times better than using Avonex.
If fact, one could just use Tysabri for several months, then quit, and have continued benefits superior to anything else.

Not using Tysabri as first line is purely criminal.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.707.624 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.03.08 13:40:24

Du sollst Eier auspusten und nich ständich inne Börse rumhängen ... menno

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.707.642 von Holgus am 22.03.08 13:47:31

Nix mit Eiern....gehe gleich ins Solebad....(STATT soleieressen...)


Für Dich Holgus--zum Fürchten....auf TY + mit Relapse....
....... GRÜSSE!!!!!!!!BIRGIT


http://youtube.com/watch?v=Ug8Wxii7XVQ

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.707.650 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.03.08 13:51:49

Was bedeutet das Video im Klartext ?
Hat er trotz Tysabri wieder einen Anfall gehabt ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.707.658 von Holgus am 22.03.08 13:55:28

JAAAAAAAAAAAAA Holgus---deshalb sollst Du Dich ja ängstigen....

Ty reduziert um 69%,nicht um 100%

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.707.818 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.03.08 14:42:49

Und um wieviel reduziert es die Angst ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

......das hängt vom Laufzeitende der Optionen ab....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.708.667 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 22.03.08 20:44:23

......das hängt vom Laufzeitende der Optionen ab.

Schatz, Du bist immer wieder so aufbauend ... das liebe ich an Dir

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.709.455 von Holgus am 23.03.08 11:22:16

Ich weiss....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210154 3/23/2008 9:21:41 AM
By: Ballyvisteafarm

Sunday Times Elan Story "typed"

ELAN SURGES ON WYETH SIGNALS


BY TOM LYONS

ELAN, THE PHARMACEUTICAL FIRM, SAW ITS VALUE SURGE BY MORE THAN €1 BILLION LAST THURSDAY, RECOVERING SUBSTANTIAL GROUND AFTER ITS SETBACK LAST MONTH ON NEWS THAT TYSABRI, ITS MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS DRUG, CAN CAUSE SOME PATIENTS TO SUFFER LIVER INGJURY.

THE RISE TOOK PLACE IN THE WEEK THAT WYETH, ITS PARTNER IN DEVELOPING TREATMENTS FOR ALZHEIMERS DISEASE, MADE POSITIVE COMMENTS ABOUT THEIR PROSPECTS.

WYETH IS WORKING ON 11 EXPERIMENTAL ALZHEIMERS TREATMENTS WITH TWO OF THESE BEING CONDUCTED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ELAN. KENNETH MARTIN, WYETHS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, WAS SPEAKING AT THE ANNUAL LEHMAN BROTHERS GLOBAL HEALTHCARE CONFERENCE IN MIAMI, A CLOSELY WATCHED EVENT BY INVESTORS IN DRUG COMPANIES.

MARTIN TOLD THE CONFERENCE THAT THEIR ALZHEIMERS RESEARCH PROGRAMME "MAY HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SUCCEEDING THAN ANYBODYS"

ANALYST COREY DAVIS OF NATEXIS BLEICHROEDER SAID THAT BAPINEUZUMAB, ONE OF TWO TREATMENTS ELAN IS TRIALLING WITH WYETH WAS A "COMPLETELY GROUND-BREAKING APPROACH". IF SUCCESSFUL, IT COULD BE" A MULTIBILLION DOLLAR PRODUCT" HE SAID

AMONG FACTORS DRIVING THE STOCK MAY HAVE BEEN SPECULATION THAT LARRY FEINBERG, A RESPECTED US HEDGE-FUND INVESTOR IS BELIEVED TO BE EXTENDING HIS POSITION IN THE COMPANY.

ELANS MARKET CAPITALISATION IS NOW €6.9 BILLION.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210130 3/23/2008 12:44:50 AM
By: jivetalkin03

ALZ COWENS 08

Went to the cowens alz seminar this week. The event was held in a large grand ballroom. What suprised me on the way into Cowens that day was how dead it was. You could've fired a cannon down the hallway on the first floor and not hit a soul. Well perhaps except for the lone soul I spotted using the free bank of computers to fevershly scan the message boards. Other than that odd sight, there wasnt much else happening. Other than the post Cowens lunch cleanup made up mostly of a delegation apparently from Haiti.

So up the escalator I went to salon F where I was hoping to see at least a half dozen or so actual investment banker types in attendance. Well as it turns out be careful what you wish for. Because salon F turned out to be packed. I was stunned. Dont know if they were all choppered in on the roof, cause I hadnt seen many actual humans in the hour since I'd arrived there.

Once I sat down towards the back and settled in, I did a quick scan of the room. On each side of the aisle there were 22 rows of seats, 12 seats per row. So that turned out to be about 528 seats, most of which were occupied by the time session started. Add to that number the standing room only crowd that lined up against the back wall behind me and that meant there were roughly over 600 people in that room. From the way were dressed id say 98% plus were investment pro's with a few press mixed in. I spotted maybe one person in the room dressed for a casual day of feeding the pigeons on a park bench. That was it.

And so the stage was set up like this. Stage left contained 4 well seasoned Cowen's reps and stage right had 3 heavy weights from the neuro community ( ill fill in the blanks on who they with their names spelled correctly when i find my notes). Behind each set of panelists hung two giant sized pay per view screens.

So in front of the 528 seats sat a dull brown box about the size box about the size of a package of yodels. It took me about 5 minutes before I realized the boxes werent there to order drinks, but were audience participation boxes that allowed those there to punch in their own answers to questions that were asked of the experts. The experts also punched in their answers within the 10 delegated clock counting seconds that were alloted per question.

And so began the seminar on the status of AD drugs currently in trials and their probability of making it to market. here is the list of the 3 panel members representing the medical community. The following are my notes from that conference.

1) Brigham and Women's Hospital
Reisa Sperling M.D. M.MS.c, Director of Clinical Research, Memory Disorders Unit; Assistant Professor of Neurology, Harvard Medical School

2) Butler Hospital, Providence, RI
Stephen P Salloway, M.D.,M.S. Chief of Neurology; Proffesor of Clinical Neurosciences and Psychiatry; Brown University Medical School

3) Massachusettes General Hospital
Steven M. Greenberg, M.D., Ph D, Director Hemmorragic Stroke Research; Assistant Professor of Neurology, Harvard Medical School


First up, the seven leading drugs in therapy.

BAP (AAB 001)
ELND 005
LILLY GAMMA SECRETASE
MYRIAD/ FLURIZAN
MEDIVATION/DIMEBON
PRANA
IVIG

Right off the bat the panel stated that BAP was furthest along with its target.
Gamma Secretase had just filed their data and in the panel's opinion they are better suited for earlier stages of the disease. The gamma problem is its toxicity in relationship to possibly doing more damage than good. They did like the design of the trial though.

Prana: literally released data that day, just hours before the seminar and have not had time to review it. Stated thats its a small trial size. They complained about that. Also they are unsure of the change in the biomarkers, in CSF, and cant decipher whether it good or bad on them. Wondered if 12 weeks worth of data mattered. Like Aricept....

Then they reshifted to bap. Its recieving, 'lots of enthusiam from the scientific community.' Cleary she said this was all based on phase 1 data ( wink wink ).
Bap has the best results in clearing the plaque, Best of breed', said DR Sperling.

She then shifted back to gamma secretase and said that it may be better in clearing plaque from blood vessels but its clearly not as effective as bap in regards to efficacy.
in regards to gamma other compounds are a plus but where do they bind? Will it do more harm than good? Its yet to be seen.

Next Question: What do they expect AAB P2 results to be?

1) stat sig
2) stat sig for apoe 4 patients
3) prob not stat sig
4)def not stat sig

The experts voted some extremely high percentage number to yes on 1.
DR Sperling then flat out stated, 'We are NOT at all concerned about its efficacy issue; we are concerned about toxicity as we have not YET seen the P2 data.'

Then there was a long panel discourse on an-1792 and encephalitis, mri's, etc, the effect on amyloid vessels.
In her opinion, the toxicity potential is far outweighed by the drug's efficacy.
Then she referenced Elan's presentation in Geneva in 2006. Talked about the 3 patients in P1, mri changes in all 3 were transient. That was the extent of the P1 data on toxicity issue. The panel then went on to rave about the thing that makes bap beautiful, its passive immunotherapy approach.
The key is to get the problem early. Bap does not have the same level of toxicity that an-1792 had.


Which then led to further discussion on vasogenic edema.

The questions were
1) concerned
2) modest concern
3) not

The experts said there was NO evidence that it was lethal; the benefit outweighs the risk with regards to vasogenic edema. It is not in their opinion a huge risk.

Next Q

Will P2 data demonstrate a stat sig effect?
Trial size 240
Panel voted PROBABLY TRUE.
Experts said that the FDAwill ask does bap have clinical benefit?
Said unless it has clinical benifit the FDA will not approve it.
The panel then voted in favor of FDA approval if the data (P2) backs up earlier findings.

The panel then spoke of the P3 global trial currently underway for AAB. Said the trial was vast in its scope and size. Looking for a visable benefit, short term vs long term. Then she joked that she'd be very grateful for even short term benefit.

Re the NTB, ELAN, she said, has had extensive discussions with the FDA to validate the data. They (FDA) might have issues with subsets, but she said, the FDA will vote for it if it shows efficacy. She added, 'the FDA will probably agree to go with it.'

Next Q

Myriad trials, will it demonstrate disease modifying effects?

1) true
2) false
3) probably true
4) not true

Experts voted no on 4.


Next up

Dimebon

Panel says the problem they have with the trial is thats in Russia, so they are unsure of data analysis and are not clear on what mechanisms were used. So panel was split on its vote on dimebon.

The question was: will it prove to be more effective than other inhibitors?

Panel vote was split 50/50, worried about trial size and length of trial.

The panel then wondered aloud if that ship had already sailed.


Next Q: ELND- will it prove to be safe and effective?

Panel split; she liked it, very excited about it.
The basic data is very compelling, the mouse model data looked very good. Then added that what works well in mice doesn't always translate to man.

Discussion then led to oral agents. They all said the fewer and the smaller the size of the pills that a patient has to take the better. Then said the trial was currently up and running.

Next Q

Baxter's IVIG, will it prove to be safe and effective?

Panel had mixed reactions to ivig re its effect on 2% of antibodies and not the other 98%.
Its a plasma treatment and she said if everyone in the room donated blood and was a reflection of society than it might stand a chance of working, but she doubts it. IVIG , she said, is not where other therapies are.

In summary, she stated early on that believes that eventually the AD fix will comprise a cocktail like mix of things that are currently in development, primarily ELAN's. BAP will be the first out of the gate, then as years progress the mix may expand.



.... and that is basically that. My notes, my impressions from Cowens ALZ 08.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210180 3/23/2008 11:43:54 AM
By: Fixer13605

Dementia timebomb : News article from the UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03…

Dementia timebomb 'will hit 1.2m'

By Laura Donnelly, Health Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:05am GMT 23/03/2008


More than a million people will suffer from dementia within 20 years, Government forecasts show.

The number of patients diagnosed with diseases such as Alzheimer's will rise by 70 per cent to more than 1.2 million by 2028.

Experts warn that there will be almost twice as many sufferers living in nursing homes. However, psychiatrists and charities say that not enough is being spent on research, treatment and care. One professor said he was "ashamed" by the state of the services on offer.

Dementia robs victims of their identities as memory, speech and understanding are lost.

Drugs such as Aricept, which slow the appearance of the symptoms of Alzheimer's, are restricted by the NHS because they cost £2.50 a day, despite being widely available in other countries.

A report by the Department of Health's Horizon Scanning Unit, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, sets out the timebomb facing Britain.

The number of people aged over 85 will have doubled by 2028, the research says. One in four will develop dementia. The number between 65 and 74 will also increase by 40 per cent and those aged 75 to 84 will rise by 50 per cent. The Alzheimer's Society charity said that the document's findings would mean an extra 500,000 people living with dementia. There are 700,000 at present. The cost of long-term care for dementia patients will more than triple to £17 billion.

Prof David Wilkinson, a psychiatric consultant, described the figures as "staggering". He called for urgent action to increase funding and research for Alzheimer's, the most common cause of dementia.

At present, £11 is spent on research into dementia for every sufferer in this country, compared with £289 for every cancer victim.

Prof Wilkinson, of Southampton University, said he was "ashamed" by the "appalling" treatment and services provided to many patients. In 2005, the NHS rationing body, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, ruled that a group of drugs which slow the progress of Alzheimer's should only be given to patients in the "moderate" stage of the disease because of the £2.50 a day cost.

Prof Wilkinson said: "If someone has cancer you don't wait until it has spread until you start treating it. This is a lethal degenerative condition and we should be tackling it from the start." He also said the care for those at the later stages of the disease was inadequate. "We are warehousing these people in nursing homes, that's what we are doing with them. It's appalling."

In November a report by the Alzheimer's Society said that many patients suffered physical and mental neglect. Many residents were left alone in their bedrooms, while ­others were shouted at, or left unwashed, the investigation said.

Neil Hunt, the chief executive of the society, said the predictions showed the urgent need for a significant increase in services and research. "We know that delaying the onset of dementia by five years would halve the number of deaths from Alzheimer's. If we are to defeat dementia it is vital we invest in more research," he said.

Earlier this month, Terry Pratchett, the science fiction author, who has been diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer's, pledged half a million pounds for research.

A potential vaccine, which destroys the plaque deposits in the brain thought to lead to some symptoms of Alzheimer's, has been tested. Although it is being adapted because trials showed some safety risks, research presented at a conference earlier this month showed that the vaccine had been successful in limiting the development of Alzheimer's.

Prof Clive Ballard, the Alzheimer's Society's research director, said: "We think this could be a major breakthrough."

Forecasts by Prof Martin Knapp, from the London School of Economics, predict that the number with dementia living in care homes will rise by 88 per cent by 2031, when close to 400,000 would be living in long-stay institutions.

The cost of long-term care will more than triple, reaching £17 billion, he said. At present, about one third of the £5.4 billion burden is paid by families.

Heather Roberts, a teacher, feared that she was developing dementia. After being told there would be a six-month wait to see a neurologist, she went private, but it was not until several years later that she was diagnosed with Alzheimer's aged 50.

Mrs Roberts, who is married with two children, said: "In some ways I am lucky, I was put on the drug Aricept before Nice ruled against it for those in the early stages."

•Alzheimer's Society helpline: 0845 3000336.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.710.042 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 23.03.08 16:41:51

Ich weiss...

Trainier schonmal die Pomuskeln

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210372 3/24/2008 2:38:14 PM
By: kingkalm

Ichan says Tysabri can do much better than what Boob has done for it.


21,30$

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.714.492 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 24.03.08 20:20:22

Der dumme Mullen muß kochen vor Wut ... feix

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.714.695 von Holgus am 24.03.08 20:55:57

ich HOFFE es....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Für Holgus zur Entspannung......es war doch kein RELAPSE;Symptome hatten nichts mit MS zu tun....

ELN msg # 210508 3/24/2008 10:10:01 PM
By: io_io

Vern Beachy only had Shingles !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgSBfz1LbyA

no Relpase after all................

....and give the video your rating please.......bottom left corner of the YouTube frame......

(Einsatz meinerseits,oder??---mitten in der Nacht....---gehe jetzt weiterschlafen...)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210462 3/24/2008 7:08:18 PM
By: Elanianian

One more comment about all this Ichan-Biib-Tysabri business

I watched and listened to the 8 minute Ichan interview today. Most of the talk was about Motorola, but the last minute dug deep into Biib. Ichan talked about Biib doing good, but should be doing better.

Then he mentioned Tysabri. NOT Avonex, NOT Rituxan...just Tysabri. Doing good, should be doing better.

This board knows that, and Ichan knows that. Most of the investment and at large community doesn't.

But Ichan is known for being smart and successful, and HE SAYS and HE KNOWS that Tysabri is a great asset that should be doing much better.

This statement VALIDATES everything this board knows about Biogen and Mullen's half-assed efforts on reinstating Tysabri in the marketplace - his poor management of a great drug, and his conflicts of interest that have hurt Elan - the company WE are invested in.

So he knows it, we know, and the market needs to know it. Ichan is doing his part to unmask the bastard JM and Biogen for the muffler they have put on a great asset that is 50% ours.

Maybe the slow train will pick up speed with Ichan's assistance.

Point of this rant is, however, this...

Ichan is a success, and he knows Biotech.

Ichan knows Tysabri, and speaks of it often in a positive manner - including today.

Ichan knows that Tysabri belongs one-half to ELAN.

Ichan knows biotech, so he MUST know that Elan is knocking on the door to some potentially incredible breakthroughs with Alz.

SO WHY IN THE HELL IS ICHAN GOING "BIOGEN BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH, WHEN HE COULD BE GOING ELAN BLAH BLAH BLAH???"

In my humble opinion he is barking up the tree of the wrong biotech.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.715.746 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 04:52:39

sage mal Birgit, Du bist echt eine Frühausteherin

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.718.440 von surga am 25.03.08 12:38:41

ELAN besorgt uns halt "schlaflose Nächte"

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.718.440 von surga am 25.03.08 12:38:41

....aber auch nur manchmal...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210565 3/25/2008 8:31:51 AM
By: snugpharma

The updated Tysabri.com site is a WOW

Check it out.

www.tysabri.com

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210580 3/25/2008 9:18:42 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

Fundamentals

1st quarter is ending and with it the opportunity to spread more FUD about Elan. Soon the following will happen:

1. April CC will highlight huge surge in Tsyabri uptake. 400 more patients or more every week. 27,000 patients on Tysabri at end of quarter.

2. June topline results for AAB-001 that show the drug works well and is safe.

3. July: detailed results that further explain #2; Q2 CC that highlights still further Tysabri growth.

4. August: palperidone palmitate approval and beginning of doubling of nano tech revs.

Elan is going to finish the year at a $400m/quarter runrate and go into the period of AAB-001 and ELND-005 BLA consideration with a strong growth rate that is entering another period of inflection.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

HOLGUS,mal wieder was zum aufregen für Dich.....

Wie lange wohl so´n aufguss währt??Wir sind schon wieder 60 cent vom heutigen hoch entfernt....

MS drug Tysabri slapped with liver warning in Europe
25 March 2008
European regulators have concluded that US group Biogen Idec and Irish drugmaker Elan’s multiple sclerosis therapy Tysabri should come with a warning about a potentially higher risk of liver damage in patients taking the drug.

The move follows a review by the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of 29 reports of liver injury in patients treated with Tysabri (natalizumab), with signs of substantially elevated hepatic enzymes and bilirubin (a breakdown product of haemoglobin) observed as early as six days after the first dose was administered.

The decision comes hot on the heels of a similar move by US regulators in February, which saw Biogen warn of the potential risks of higher levels of hepatic enzymes and bilirubin - a key marker of severe livery injury that could lead to the need for a liver transplant or even patient death - in letter to healthcare professionals, shortly after a similar warning was added to the drug’s label for its Crohn’s disease indication.

Doctors on both sides of the Atlantic have been advised to closely monitor the liver function of patients taking Tysabri, and it was stressed that therapy should be discontinued in those deemed at risk.

Safety profile
This is not the first time Tysabri’s safety profile has been under review. The drug first hit the market in 2004 and many analysts had expected it to generate peak annual sales of as much as $4 billion, but it was promptly taken off the market in March 2005 after three patients developed a potentially fatal brain infection called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.

However, following an extensive safety review by US and European regulators, Tysabri was allowed to return to pharmacy shelves in July 2006 for the treatment of MS, with certain restrictions, as regulators felt that as long as patient were aware of the risks they could benefit from its use.


By Selina McKee -- Pharma Times

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.720.891 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 16:25:23

HOLGUS,mal wieder was zum aufregen für Dich.....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 210681 3/25/2008 12:12:47 PM
By: intelligent_rat

Increased liver enzymes and increased bilirubin is severe liver injury????

No it is not.

Someone is taking this out of context and creating a misleading story.
Probably Biogen. The info is "true", but it is also not true.

Half of the medications sold by perscription can cause increased liver enzymes and increased bilirubin. Every doc knows this,,,,,,,but they are presenting the story as "severe liver damage" (but they mean increased enzymes and bilirubin).

Some vitamins cause increased enzymes and bilirubin. If you try to take niacin in high doses to drop cholesterol, you need to moniter the liver enzyme and bili. Eventually, a few people "could develop significant liver injury."

What are these enzymes? They are contained within liver cells (hepatocytes). If you :bruise the cell, these enzymes can leak out and enter the blood. You then pick up the increased enzymes.

A mild increase can usually be thought of as "irritation" of the liver. You might decrease the dose, or use the drug more sparingly,,,to see if you can get the enzymes in normal range. A mild increase probably would take years to cause any permanent damage, if ever.

A moderate increase would cause one to consider using another drug, or use Tysabri for emergencies.

A severe increase would cause one to stop the drug. A terrible MS attack might cause one to consider Tysabri, but the patient would have to insist on trying it, because true liver damage it quite possible.

In summary, these "warnings" on Tysabri about increased liver enzymes and bilirubin are routine. You moniter them in case you see them increase. If they increase, THAT IS NOT SERIOUS LIVER DAMAGE.
It could "lead" to serious damage.

How many people take Lipitor, Crestor, etc. These drugs do the same thing but are the biggest sellers. Heck, these drugs can even lead to death of muscle cells, but do you hear of panic in the press??? No you do not,,,this Tysabri anxiety is manufactured.

With any drug, there is risk. But for what Tysabri does, and its comparative risk,,,Tysabri is safe. Any sensible patient/doc will moniter the liver enzymes and moniter for PML. Remember, it may turn out that the interferons are more dangerous than Tysabri.
And the risk of not treating with the only effective drug is also risking death.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.722.603 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 18:52:26

Püüh ?


Wenn schon KartoffelPÜÜHre ... bidde

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.722.860 von Holgus am 25.03.08 19:11:57

....aber NUR selbstgemachtes Püh-reh.....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.722.937 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 19:17:51

Oh ja, Reh ist auch lecker ... schön mit Rotkohl.

Aber kann man Reh selber machen ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.723.033 von Holgus am 25.03.08 19:25:22

klar:schiessen und braten......

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.718.482 von Poppholz am 25.03.08 12:43:33

ELAN besorgt uns halt "schlaflose Nächte"

Ja, Du hast Recht

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.723.073 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 19:28:47

Und ich dachte stampfen und kochen ... hmm

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.723.153 von surga am 25.03.08 19:34:21

Schlaflose Nächte ?


Macht es einfach so wie ich. Ich zähle immer bis vier ... und schwupps bin ich eingeschlafen.

Na ja, manchmal wirds auch halb fünf.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.723.259 von Holgus am 25.03.08 19:42:26

...nur weil Du bis 5 nicht zählen kannst))))))))))))))))))?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.723.320 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.03.08 19:48:44

...nur weil Du bis 5 nicht zählen kannst

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Moin!

Das Video von der Hauptaktivistin des IV-Boards von vor ca.2 Jahren zur Zulassung von TY bei der FDA.

ELN msg # 210889 3/25/2008 8:10:13 PM
By: io_io

msladyinca on youtube - FDA testimony

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0C-CK1PWcI

(sorry if posted before)


Please give it your Rating, bottom left of YouTube frame.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.725.838 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 26.03.08 09:06:28

Hab ich mir heut früh schon angeschaut ... die gute Lauren ist ja echt arm dran.

Würd mich mal interessieren wie sie jetzt drauf ist hinsichtlich Mobilität und so ... müßte sich in den 2 Jahren doch einiges verbessert haben.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.725.901 von Holgus am 26.03.08 09:12:12

Sie schreibt ja hin und wieder davon ,dass sie sich schon deutlich kräftiger fühlt und keine relapses mehr hatte.

übrigens mal off topic : Meine Jungs haben meine Website "relaunched"

jetzt u.a. mit ein paar O-Tönen aus dem Münsterland.... www.tagungshaus-karneol.de Grüsse

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 211282 3/26/2008 6:22:46 PM
By: kcchris

My favorite AAN abstract. Showing that the brain repairs itself on Tysabri

[P08.160] Measuring Myelin Repair with Diffusion Tensor Imaging

Robert Fox, Jian Lin, Ken Sakaie, Michael D. Phillips, Mark J. Lowe, Cleveland, OH

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to measure remyelination following acute inflammatory injury. BACKGROUND: Conventional MR imaging detects the occurrence of inflammatory brain injury, but is a poor measure of the degree of injury and its later recovery. DTI has a broad dynamic range and good spatial resolution, and so is an attractive outcome metric of tissue injury. Animal models suggest that longitudinal diffusivity (L) is a marker of axonal injury, while transverse diffusivity (T) is a marker of myelin integrity. We sought to evaluate the ability of DTI to measure tissue recovery after acute injury, hypothesizing that T would decrease (from remyelination), leading to increased fractional anisotropy (FA). DESIGN/METHODS: 20 MS patients were enrolled in a longitudinal natural history DTI study upon starting treatment with natalizumab, which is a strong anti-inflammatory MS therapy. Imaging was performed on a 3T Siemens Trio. Diffusion-weighted imaging used 71 non-collinear diffusion-weighting gradients (2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5mm voxels, b=2000sec/mm2, 8 b=0 acquisitions). Anatomical imaging was performed for lesion detection and co-registration. Enhancing lesions at baseline were followed using FSL and AFNI software on monthly scans over two months. Average values within each region were derived for FA, mean diffusivity (MD), L, and T. RESULTS: At baseline, nine patients demonstrated a total of 47 gadolinium-enhancing lesions. At both one and two months, average FA increased relative to baseline (p<0.001 for both comparisons, t-test), and average T decreased (p<0.05, p<0.01, respectively). Average MD and L values demonstrated no statistically significant change over two months. CONCLUSIONS/RELEVANCE: Longitudinal evaluation of gadolinium-enhancing lesions using DTI with high angular and spatial resolution suggests that DTI can detect brain tissue recovery following acute injury. The increase in FA and decrease in L provides further evidence that these measures may represent remyelination. Supported by: K23NS47211 and NMSS RG3548 to RJF.
Category - MS and Related Diseases
SubCategory - Clinical Science

Thursday, April 17, 2008 4:00 PM

Poster Sessions VIII: Multiple Sclerosis and Related Diseases: Imaging (4:00 PM-7:00 PM)

The embargo for all abstracts to be presented at the 60th Annual Meeting is in effect until the date and time of the presentation unless otherwise noted on the abstract and/or press release. If there are questions, please contact the AAN media and public relations team.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 211253 3/26/2008 5:11:53 PM
By: srsmgja

Personal Update

My wife conpleted another Tysabri infusion today. Next month will be the 1 3/4 year mark. As always, everything went well. No reaction and no side effects. She usually comes home a bit tired after the infusion and often naps for an hour........ but today, she felt so good, she skipped the nap and ran off to shop. Lucky me!!

Today, there was a women in the infusion room with my wife also receiving a Tysabri infusion. I believe it was her 10th. According to my wife, this individual BEFORE Tysabri was in a wheelchair with no sensation in her legs. She has now recovered sensation in her legs and is WALKING with a cane.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 211437 3/27/2008 10:06:36 AM
By: peadar_og

Elan

Just looking at Elan’s JPM Conference notes again and it seems we have been guided over 150k patients on Tysabri, which would be approx $5 billion annual rev at today’s price. See below again. Leading product has 150k patients on therapy. Tysabri to become market leader. This is management guidance, not mine.

Also note that Avonex crotrols 31% of the market currently. That represents a hit of almost one lost sale of Avonex for every three sales of Tysabri (from the switching/new patient groups.


As per presentation:

Mkt Avonex 31%, Rebif 25%, C 23%, B 21%

Mkt opp, 4 leading prods 20-30% mkt share, 100-150K patients on each drug

W/evolution of drug, T will become leading MS drug efficacy, cost attr, unmet med need


· Efficacy of T; relapse reduction 1 yr 66%, 2yr 67%, 3yr 67%
· Reduction in lesions 1yr 92%, same Yr 2, consistent in Yr 3
· Evidence helps very sign
· Cost per avoided relapse
· Many orgzn look how much costs to avoid relapse
· Given competitors price increases, T is cheapest Tx out there
· That is why we and partner BIIB had succ in EU, particularly UK and Scotland, where quite complicated
· Very effective re reimb
· All reimb ww very good
· Fair amt of turnover and switching and many drop off
· We believe MS opp for T is very sign
· Completely agree w/100K by 2010YE both ELN and BIIB put out
· Over 40% on curr Tx decline, some say as high as 60%, high patient need for this drug


FWIW, I say Tysabri eventually can go over 250k patients and might even close towards $10b annual rev at peak. This might even be achieved without including other indications for the product, and we know it also has recently been approved for CD with oncology and others on the way.

Peadar ‘Og

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLO----WO seid Ihr ALLE???????????????????????????????????????????????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 211665 3/27/2008 7:16:38 PM
By: jivetalkin03

Something's up

imo. I dont really know what to add to that at this point. But I have a feeling that the log jam here is about to burst. Maybe its just my imagination running away with me. But I do get the sense that there are things going on behind the scenes. The clock is ticking. Hold on for the P2 data release. Other things may happen in the meantime. Investor Day isn't being held so that Elan can serve up danish to the tutes. Remember a good fireworks show doesn't open with the finale.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 211924 3/28/2008 1:21:58 PM
By: zen_water

Funds are buying Elan like crazy - Thanks BJ for the link

This is the noteworthy statistic. As of March 17, 2088:

Total Shares of (ELN) Bought and Sold: 13,084,236

- 28 fund managers bought a total of 12,051,498 shares.

- 16 fund managers sold a total of 1,032,738 shares

That's a buy ratio of about 12 to 1.

Now here's a question for you. The question:

Why is our pps going down as institutions are accumulating huge amounts of shares?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

American Funds (AEPGX) bought over 8.3 million shares
http://thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=eln

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 212344 3/30/2008 3:07:25 PM
By: Lorcain

More Feinberg - Sunday Times


Elan backer is as happy as Larry

Sharewatch - Tom Lyons

American hedge fund manager Larry Feinberg is again bullish about Elan, just three years after his fund lost $100m [€63.4m] in a single day backing the Irish pharmaceutical firm and its development partner, Biogen.

Feinberg is the head of Oracle Partners, the worlds first dedicated health care hedge fund, which he founded in 1989.

"Right now, we have between seven and eight million shares in Elan and I am adding the stock," he said.

Feinberg is unperturbed by analysts at Canaccord Adams, which downgraded Elan midweek from hold to sell.

The broker reduced its price target for the stock from €11.33 to €10.76.

Canaccord said the multiples at which pharmaceutical firms traded were contracting due to "both the lack of positive outlook of the overall economy and increasing uncertainties around the ability of big pharma to fill in their pipelines".

"Due to the recent surge in the [Elan] share price, we are downgrading our recommendation from hold to sell", its analysts concluded.

Feinberg is a bull. "Elan clearly is the world leader in Alzheimer's research and it looks like it might have something on the therapeutic side," he said.

"I really don't think Elan & Wyeth [another development partner] would be spending hundreds of millions of dollars in four separate 1000-patient phase III trials if there wasn't very positive phase II data coming," he said.

Elan is due to reveal data on how its Alzheimer's trials are going in June.

Investors will also be watching for comments made by the company when it holds an analysts meeting in early May.

On March 2, 2005, Elan and Biogen's share prices plunged by 70% and 43% respectively after Elan pulled Tysabri, its multiple-sclerosis drug, after patients developed a nervous-system disorder.

Feinberg had 5m shares in Elan as well as a large holding in Biogen, wiping more than $100m off the value of his fund.

The New York investor said: "I lost a lot, but I made money in Elan by the end of the year by buying back in at the bottom." A true believer.

<EOM>

[bernie55]

Guten Morgen,
wirklich fleißige Arbeit, Birgit


..so, ich bin jetzt wieder im Lande und zumindest bis zum 9 Mai wieder öfters im WO....


Grüße bernie55

[bernie55]

Future BLOCKBUSTERS.

These 10 medicines are expected to eventually garner FDA approval and break the annual billion-dollar sales barrier.

u.a. BAPINEUZUMAB

http://www.cel-sci.com/media_7.pdf

[bernie55]

U.S. judge dismisses investor lawsuit against Elan

Fri Mar 28, 2008 6:04pm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. judge has thrown out a class action lawsuit brought by investors against Elan Corp PLC (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) and its executives over its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri.

The plaintiffs in the case accused the company and executives of misrepresentations and omissions regarding the safety, commercial viability and projected market share of the drug Tysabri, causing the company's stock price to be artificially inflated.

In an opinion posted on Friday, U.S. District Judge Richard Holwell, who sits in Federal court in Manhattan, said the plaintiffs in the case had failed to adequately show that Elan and its executives had motive and opportunity to commit fraud.

Holwell said the plaintiffs could file a motion for permission to amend their complaint.

Tysabri, which is made by Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Elan, was temporarily suspended from the market in 2005 after some patients developed a potentially deadly brain infection.

It was allowed back on the market in 2006 with certain restrictions after U.S. regulators decided multiple sclerosis patients were willing to accept the risks in return for the potential benefits.

(Reporting by Emily Chasan; Editing by Gary Hill)


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN283268292008…

[Poppholz]

Hallo Zusammen,

@Birgit: Sehr schöne Arbeit.

Bin einige Tage zu Hause gewesen und habe mir vorgenommen, nicht in mein Depot zu schauen.

Wie ich sehe, habe ich auch nichts verpasst.



Bin jetzt auch wieder da und somit auch bei Euch.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.763.287 von Poppholz am 31.03.08 09:22:03

...freu mich ,dass Ihr wieder da seid!LG Birgit

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 212422 3/31/2008 5:03:29 AM
By: Franca_ole

Lilly Launches Its First Phase III Trial for Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080331/clm007.html?.v=101

...and Elan has an option for the half of this one:
http://www.elan.com/research_development/Pipeline_Products/d…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 212420 3/31/2008 4:42:35 AM
By: Dumbfatnlazy

Lilly trial will test drug for Alzheimer's, LY450139 Enrollment begins today

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080331/…

Lilly trial will test drug for Alzheimer's
Phase III stage is a promising step for treatment of disease
By John Russell

How to enroll
Enrollment begins today for Eli Lilly's Phase III clinical trial for treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. The company is seeking 1,500 patients in 22 countries. They will be studied for 21 months at dozens of sites, including the Indiana University School of Medicine in Indianapolis.

Some patients will be given the experimental drug, LY450139, while others initially will be given a placebo. But even those patients initially given a placebo will be started on active LY450139 sometime before the end of the study.

Information regarding the trial, including recruitment sites, can be found at www.lillytrials.com or by calling 1-877-285-4559.


It's a disease that slowly shuts down the mind, eventually leaving its victims unable to think, remember or take care of themselves.

But now, Alzheimer's disease, which has puzzled medical researchers for more than a century, is attracting a new wave of drug development, including a move announced today by Eli Lilly and Co. that it is launching its first-ever Phase III trial on Alzheimer's patients.

The Indianapolis drug maker plans to enroll 1,500 patients in 22 countries to test an experimental drug to see if it can slow the progression of the disease.

It's the most sweeping step by Lilly to come up with a treatment for Alzheimer's disease, which is the seventh-leading cause of death in the U.S., affecting about 5 million elderly Americans.

The trials, if successful, could help Lilly overcome numerous setbacks to its drug pipeline in recent years. The company hasn't launched a new drug for humans since 2005. Several of its promising late-stage experimental drugs, including those for brain cancer and diabetes-related eye problems, have run into difficulties with regulators or had disappointing clinical results.

Meanwhile several other drug and biotech companies, including Wyeth Pharmaceuticals and Myriad Genetics, are also pushing hard with late-stage clinical trials in experimental drugs for Alzheimer's disease. Other companies are in earlier stages of research.

At stake is treatment of a disease that robs elderly people of their ability to think and costs the U.S. an estimated $150 billion a year, much of it picked up by taxpayers.

There is currently no cure for Alzheimer's disease. The handful of drugs on the market help patients manage the symptoms.

It generally takes 10 years before a patient dies of complications from being bedridden, often pneumonia or infections.

"That 10 years from diagnosis to death is kind of an awful time, really, because patients can't remember things," said Dr. Steven Paul, Lilly's executive vice president for science and technology. "They become increasingly demented. They can become psychotic and paranoid. It's very difficult to treat them in that condition."

For years, the disease had a low profile, because few people lived into their 80s and 90s. A century ago, the average U.S. lifespan was 52 years. But with medical advances, more people are living decades longer -- and becoming Alzheimer's victims.

"Just a generation ago, in medical schools, when the professors talked about Alzheimer's disease, they said: 'It's very rare. You'll probably never see it,' " said Eric Siemers, medical director of Lilly's Alzheimer research.

What many drug makers, including Lilly, are hoping to do is slow the progression of the disease by attacking what many scientists see as the culprit: the buildup of a sticky protein, called amyloid beta, that turns into a plaque on the brain and eventually kills off brain cells. Lilly's drug, called LY450139, is designed to inhibit an enzyme that creates the sticky protein that typically builds up for years before the first symptoms, mild forgetfulness and cognitive impairment, appear.

One small company, Myriad Genetics of Salt Lake City, last week wrapped up its own Phase III clinical trial of more than 2,500 patients of an experimental drug called Flurizan. The drug is being studied to stop progression of Alzheimer's for patients with a mild form of the disease.

"The new hope is to effect the disease at the very basic pathology, so you're actually stopping it, not just managing the symptoms," said Dr. Daniel D. Christensen, professor of psychiatry, neurology and pharmacology at the University of Utah's Neuropsychiatric Institute.

Most of the drug development is geared toward what researchers call the "amyloid hypothesis" -- that finding a way to stop the buildup of plaque could slow down the disease.

"It's taken the last 20 years of steady progress in understanding how this protein is deposited, how it's metabolized, all the enzymes involved," said Dr. Martin Farlow, professor of neurology at the Indiana University School of Medicine. "But we are now at a point that a number of companies have developed drugs that attack different parts of the process. Now there's a very realistic possibility of stopping this disease."

Call Star reporter John Russell at [phone].

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Elan's IR does not mean Investor Relations, it really means Irish Restrooms.........!STIMMT!

Beispiel heute:Keine PR zu der Phase 3 des Medikaments , an deren Vermarktung Elan zu 50% partipizieren würde / Keine Veröffentlichung des Dates des nächsten CC zum Quartalsende;NBC hat das Datum heute veröffentlicht--22.4.08.....-----Ich weiss nicht was diese Politik von Elan soll....Mit dem Argument,nichts an die Konkurrenz zu verraten ist DAS NICHT zu erklären.....und die Fonds hatten doch nun wahrlich genug Möglichkeiten BILLIGST aufzustocken....------IRISH RESTROOMS eben.....

ES NERVT ABER!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.768.374 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 31.03.08 17:21:34

... zudem macht dieses ständige "Elan und alles drumherum beobachten" langsam irgendwie müde.

Oder ist das schon die Frühjahrsmüdigkeit ?

Na, zumindest gehts heut ein wenig rauf (bis jetzt jedenfalls).

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.769.182 von Holgus am 31.03.08 18:36:34

....wahrscheinlich macht Beides müde....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

April 24th CC; AGM May 22

Moin! Der Investorentag ist am 22.Mai in Dublin-Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin 2, Ireland at 10.00am on Thursday, May 22, 2008 - hat jemand Interesse?

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.773.635 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 08:36:53

Interesse schon, aber ich werde mir wohl nicht die Zeit nehmen können.

[Poppholz]

gestern Abend sind die Umsätze ja noch schön nach oben gegangen:

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.773.635 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 08:36:53

... nicht die Zeit nehmen können


Und ich werd immer seekrank

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.769.182 von Holgus am 31.03.08 18:36:34

... zudem macht dieses ständige "Elan und alles drumherum beobachten" langsam irgendwie müde.

..genau...




..deshalb habe ich gestern nach langen Überlegungen den gesamten Bestand meiner ELAN Aktien verkauft....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.398 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 09:54:28

..euch allen weiterhin viel Glück...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.118 von Holgus am 01.04.08 09:28:44

....nur fliegen ist schöner...ab D´dorf ca.1 Std!Ab HH ???

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.398 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 09:54:28

schon klar:

APRIL APRIL



(mit uns nicht)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.911 von Poppholz am 01.04.08 10:38:22

wenn BERNIE seinen "gesamten Bestand" verkaufen würde, dann wären wir in Frankfurt und Stuttgart EINSTELLIG.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.398 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 09:54:28

das ist doch APRIL SCHERZ oder BERNIE?

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.923 von Poppholz am 01.04.08 10:39:24

wenn BERNIE seinen "gesamten Bestand" verkaufen würde, dann wären wir in Frankfurt und Stuttgart EINSTELLIG


..Einstellig ???


...ja klar, vor den 6 NULLEN !!!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.911 von Poppholz am 01.04.08 10:38:22

schon klar:

APRIL APRIL
(mit uns nicht)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.775.016 von surga am 01.04.08 10:46:59

das ist doch APRIL SCHERZ oder BERNIE?


APRIL - APRIL ...

[bernie55]

..schön, dass mit den absoluten Hammer - News Bewegung in den ELAN Thread kommt...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.775.060 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 10:50:01

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.775.079 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 10:51:35

in Irland und in London ist der Kurs auf €13,50 gestiegen.

Vielleicht sollte ich auch noch das Gerücht streuen, dass ich alle meine Aktien verkauft habe.

Dann geht der Kurs direkt über die €14,- Marke.

Oder wir schreiben direkt, dass sich die PBB-Company aus dem Aktienhandel zurück gezogen hat und Ihren Bestand auf 0 reduziert hat.

Dann sind wir endlich bei €20,- angekommen.



(Börse ist so einfach)

[Poppholz]

die machen es ganz geschickt:

Gestützt auf Art. 20 BEHG teilt die BB Biotech AG (BIO.SW - Nachrichten) ,
Vordergasse 3,
8200 Schaffhausen zusammen mit ihrer 100%-Tochtergesellschaft Biotech
Target N.V., Snipweg 26, Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles mit, dass sie
den Anteil eigener Stimmrechte per 26. März 2008 über die Schwelle
von 25% des Stimmrechtsanteils erhöht hat.

Weitere Informationen entnehmen Sie bitte aus dem beiliegenden
Dokument.

Freundliche Grüsse

BB BIOTECH AG

http://de.biz.yahoo.com/31032008/36/hugin-news-bb-biotech-ag…

die haben auch einige ELAN-Aktien im Depot liegen. Wenn die jetzt eigene Aktien kaufen, dann gewinnt die Firma auch ordenltlich, wenn der Kurs der Elan-Aktie hoch geht.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.775.123 von Poppholz am 01.04.08 10:55:52

[bernie55]

Goodbody, on Lily


Elan (Add, Closing Price $20.86)
Eli Lilly AD drug moves into Phase III trials
Analyst: Ian Hunter


Eli Lilly yesterday announced that it is moving its candidate drug LY450139 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (AD) into a Phase III clinical trial. The once-daily, oral medication is being tested to see if it can slow the progression of the disease in mild to moderate AD sufferers, by inhibiting gamma-secretase. This enzyme is associated with the production of beta amyloid, the constituent of the plaques found in the brains of AD sufferers. Under the IDENTITY trial (Interrupting Alzheimer's Dementia by EvaluatiNg Treatment of Amyloid PaThologY), LY450139 will be administered to 1,500 patients in the US and 21 other countries, over a 21-month period. Enrolment has now started with a study completion date of March 2012 guided. The primary endpoint measure is the rate of cognitive and functional decline in AD over time. There are a number of different tests incorporated into the study as secondary outcomes, including a brain scan to monitor the build up of amyloid plaques and tests on brain function and brain size. Elan collaborated with Eli Lilly in the early-stage development of this drug and retains the right to co-market the drug should it come to the market. It will also enjoy a royalty stream from any commercial product. The move of LY450139 into Phase III is well within the timeline flagged by Eli Lilly at the beginning of the year and the announcement gives us comfort that the drug is on track in its progress through the regulatory pathway. The drug is approaching the treatment of AD from a different perspective to AAB-001 as it looks to prevent plaque build up rather than dissolve existing plaques (AAB-001 action). Both approaches could prove effective in tackling a disease that is growing in importance as the population ages.

Yesterday's announcement is an incremental positive for Elan's growing pipeline

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=212834&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...wir sind doch alle elanabhängig----und da hilft doch nur aab001.....-----und der ERSTE Schritt raus aus der Abhängigkeit ist, dass man sich zu ihr bekennt.... (Ihr seht,ich bin schon wieder einen Schritt weiter.....)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Note: Biogen stated today, April 1st, that this 3rd patient not only had a history of severe immunosuppression as stated within this article, but was actually taking the other immunosuppressive(s) while receiving the first series of Tysabri doses. This again casts serious doubt on Tysabri's role in the causation of PML in this case.
----- 4/1/2008 6:24:22 AM chiefypadl IV Board
l

[Holgus]

Oh Leute, ich glaubs nich ... schaut mal Elan ... vorbörslich in NY.
Da muß was dickes im Busch sein.
Geil ............ Geiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiil ..... Geiler !!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.031 von Holgus am 01.04.08 13:52:15

ist das ein Aprilscherz??????????????????????

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.089 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 13:56:54

aktuell steht USA bei

$21,02 zu $344,00



www.level2quotes.com

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.089 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 13:56:54

Abril Abril ...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.124 von Poppholz am 01.04.08 14:00:13

also für 65 Dollar hätte ich mal 10 Stück von meinen 7100 Schätzchen vertickt....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.150 von Holgus am 01.04.08 14:03:21

...ich wusste immer schon dass Du so FIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESE Charakterzüge besitzt.....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.171 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 14:05:18

Wieso Schatz, so ein richtig schöner Adreanalschub ist doch was feines.
Und wenns nur für 'nen Moment war ...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.195 von Holgus am 01.04.08 14:07:31

....und ob Du´s glaubst oder nicht....ich spürte einen leichten Trennungsschmerz...........


Author: snugpharma



Alzheimer Activism: How To Modernize Clinical Trials? / discuss ways to improve clinical trials for candidate Alzheimer disease drugs.
Alzforum Research Forum Review. Gabrielle Strobel (editor) deserves honorable mention.....first rate ---snug
http://www.alzforum.org/new/detail.asp?id=1787

31 March 2008. On March 13, just north of Washington, DC, leaders of a veritable alphabet soup of Alzheimer disease activist groups met with representatives from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), clinicians, and industry leaders to discuss ways to improve clinical trials for candidate Alzheimer disease drugs. The workshop focused on how best to measure whether a candidate AD drug is effective. Specifically, the question of the day was what constitutes a clinically meaningful outcome that can support FDA approval for the upcoming generation of new, mechanism-based therapies such as anti-amyloid and neuroprotective drugs, and whether the current FDA requirements should change.

The title of the meeting was “Measures of Clinical Meaningfulness—An AD Ally/FDA Scientific Workshop.” It took place in the same hotel that hosted an expert meeting that gave rise, in the early 1990s, to the current FDA definition of what constitutes a clinically meaningful effect. A sense that this definition needs to evolve pervaded the meeting. This workshop was the first of what is to be a series of discussions between various AD stakeholders and FDA scientists. The workshops aim to engage the agency in a continuing dialog about the changing science of AD, and to reinforce the pressing need for new AD drugs. The goal is to help agency scientists adjust their standards of evaluation for emerging drugs accordingly.

Presentations preceded a long panel discussion. Just below the surface of substantive, genteel exchange, a driving sense of urgency by patient representatives clashed with a cautious—some even said paternalistic—approach by the agency and some doctors. Intense discussion revolved around the question of what standard of proof a biomarker has to meet to win the FDA’s blessing as a surrogate to cut short the length, cost, caregiver burden, and variability of clinical trials. Another flash point was how much risk individual patients versus the agency are willing to accept in drug testing. There was a palpable concern that effective drugs might fail because they are tested too late in the disease process. Furthermore, the discussion highlighted that as more drug candidates than ever before are awaiting human testing, the new bottlenecks in the pipeline now are limitations in diagnostic expertise for early AD, and capacity of clinical trial sites, as well as an insufficient number of patients available for trials. Speakers agreed that this problem calls for future trials to be designed to place less of a burden on caregivers, so that they can fit research participation into their challenging daily lives. As it is, large trials currently compete for the same limited number of patients, and enrollment is slowing down, taking up to 18 months for some trials. Also needed are outreach efforts that appeal to patients’ altruism. Such efforts should educate patients and caregivers about the clinical trials process, ask them to participate for the greater good even if they get randomized to placebo, and offer open-label drug extensions after the blinded period ends.

The workshop was hosted by Accelerate Cure/Treatments for Alzheimer’s Disease (ACT-AD). Formed in 2006, this is a coalition of some 50 national organizations representing patients, providers, caregivers, older Americans, researchers, and employers. ACT-AD worked with the Alzheimer’s Association and the Alzheimer Study Group (see ARF related news story) to organize the meeting. Other groups represented included the Alzheimer’s Drug Discovery Foundation (ADDF), which brings a venture philanthropy approach to translational AD research, the Alzheimer’s Foundation of America (AFA), which is primarily concerned with improving care, and the Geoffrey Beene Foundation Alzheimer’s Initiative. This meeting report summarizes the scientific presentations that framed the issues, as well as the subsequent discussion.

The View from the Regulator’s Perch
What is an effective therapy? Easy as pie—one that changes the life of the patient for the better. Yet as soon as one begins to define this answer, its simplicity disappears, Bill Thies of the Alzheimer’s Association said in his introductory remarks. This problem dominated the scientific program beginning with Russell Katz, who directs the Division of Neurology Products at the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation Research. Katz laid out the definition for clinical meaningfulness the agency has used since the early 1990s during the time the cholinesterase inhibitor drugs were being tested. At the time, the FDA and AD experts agreed that any AD drug demonstrably needed to do two things: affect a measure of cognition plus have an effect that matters to the patient. The thought was that just because patients score higher on a given memory test scale, this does not automatically mean they feel better. The double requirement, then, was a statistically significant difference on a formal measure of cognition and on a formal measure of clinical improvement. The latter could be a functional measure, or the caregiver’s, patient’s, or physician’s global sense that the patient was better overall.

The FDA continues to insist on the combination of the two measures. Since the early 1990s, most sponsors have come to use the ADAS-cog (a 70-point scale, higher is worse) for the former, and the CIBIC+ (7-point scale, higher is worse) for the latter. Katz noted that once the FDA approved one drug based on results from these scales, other drug companies used them, too. However, the FDA has never mandated the use of any specific batteries, Katz added. Some companies are now shifting to other test packages that they consider more sensitive than ADAS-cog at picking up subtle decline in the earliest stages of AD, for example, the Neuropsychological Test Battery (NTB; see ARF PBT2 story).

Previously, drug sponsors (mostly pharma companies) typically ran three- to six-month placebo-controlled trials with some 200 patients with mild to moderate AD in each group. This gave them enough power to detect very small differences between drug and placebo. In fact, the FDA never defined how large the treatment effects had to be, nor did it require that the patients actually improve relative to their baseline. The agency considered drug effects as small as –1 on ADAS-cog and –0.2 on CIBIC+ to be meaningful, and granted approval when a statistically significant difference between treatments and placebo on two different outcome measures was there, Katz said. In other words, the FDA standard is high in terms of requiring two separate outcomes, but low in the sense that a drug need only nudge these two outcomes a bit.

The agency has been using these same standards for a long time. Katz acknowledged that because the field now is on the verge of a new set of treatments with a different mode of action, the time has come to reconsider them. He offered these alternatives for discussion, ordered by disease stage. Instead of using ADAS-cog, a sponsor could use a test that assesses only a single cognitive function. This is helpful in mild AD when a specific domain fades, such as executive function or episodic memory, while the patient is not broadly impaired yet. Katz insisted that a functional measure was still important to assure the patient actually benefits.

For patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), the requirement for some global improvement applies, as well. That issue has not been solved between drug sponsors and the agency. The agency accepts delay to time of AD diagnosis as a clinically meaningful outcome measure. Here, too, the agency does not set a minimum requirement of how long the delay has to be, or how many people reap this benefit, in order to approve.

For asymptomatic (AD scientists would say presymptomatic) patients who have some evidence of impairment, such as subjective memory complaint, or have imaging or CSF biochemistry indicators of AD, a drug-induced change in these measures would be insufficient, Katz said. He said such data couldn’t prove that this change will ever translate into improved function, and the agency was unwilling to assume as much. The agency at this point is not prepared to accept a biomarker change as a clinical surrogate. Sponsors are not formally proposing drug trials using only biomarkers to the FDA just yet, Katz said, but added that this is coming. The larger question is what kind of evidence can give the FDA confidence to predict that the patient will get better after a biomarker change. At present, a biomarker change is not a primary outcome. “Approaches that rely on indirect evidence and assumptions are problematic,” Katz said. (This point drew critical discussion later on. After the conference, some attendees privately expressed concern that CSF biomarkers were still viewed with skepticism despite a preponderance of evidence. Other attendees said that they expected this view to change as biomarker data from current drug trials come online; see ARF related news story). For normal people at elevated risk, a growing number of scientists want to push treatment back toward secondary and even primary prevention. Katz insisted that the agency was in the dark about what outcome measures it should demand for such trials. Regarding people who have a family history or a strong genetic predisposition, Katz said, dishearteningly: “We are not anywhere near doing those trials yet.” (See eFAD trials essays.)

A separate debate revolves around disease modification. The major claim by which the current crop of experimental medicines set themselves apart from approved drugs is that they will slow the underlying disease process, not just provide symptomatic relief. This, too, sounds simple but is difficult to define, much less prove in trials. Uncertainty has reached the point where some clinicians even recommend that industry abandon the distinction altogether, and just try to find a new treatment that works regardless of what words end up on the drug label. The basic problem, as described by many drug company researchers, is the following: the curves of symptomatic and disease-modifying drug effects over time suggest that while the former show up within weeks or a few months after a patient starts taking the drug, a disease-modifying effect may take up to two years to become measurable. That’s because patients do not initially improve on the drug, as they will on a symptomatic drug; they merely decline less steeply than control patients. If the drug effect is weak, say, a 25 percent reduction in decline, it takes a long time for the curves to diverge enough for the trial to pick up the difference. The regulatory take on this situation is skeptical on two accounts. Not only is the FDA unwilling to accept such a change in slope as proof of disease modification, it is also unclear how meaningful such an effect can be to the patient and caregiver it if acts so slowly, Katz said. Discussion about disease modification versus symptomatic drugs, shapes of curves, and timelines led some attendees to conclude that to rise above this muddle, the new crop of drugs simply must show much larger effects than the cholinesterase inhibitor ever did.

The View from the Academic Medical Center
David Knopman of the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, offered a clinical perspective on the challenges of establishing that drug effects matter to patients. Knopman noted that besides the size of drug effects, their limited endurance is a problem—they tend to fade after some months. In general, Knopman added, many clinicians agree with the FDA’s dual requirement of a cognitive and a global effect. Practically speaking in drug trials, even small cognitive effects are easy to quantify but impress neither the patients nor their caregivers, whereas global improvement is difficult to measure but meaningful. One trial solved the problem of defining a clinically meaningful result by asking each patient’s caregiver to name a valued activity of daily living whose loss would constitute an endpoint, and then measured the time it took patients to decline to this endpoint on donepezil versus placebo (Mohs et al., 2001). This is called survival analysis, and it has promise for broader use in early-stage patients.

For trials in symptomatic patients, Knopman said that in his view, the main open questions are whether a combination of a biomarker and a clinical endpoint might be superior to the current standard, and whether shorter, six-month trials should be sufficient to support FDA approval. Knopman agreed with Katz that finding meaningful change in prevention trials is difficult and expensive. Because no intermediate outcomes are formally accepted yet, the low incidence of AD (1-4 percent newly diagnosed per year in ages 70-90) necessitates large trials that enroll thousands of patients and follow them for years until they develop dementia symptoms. Until such intermediate outcomes are accepted, few primary prevention trials will be undertaken, Knopman said. Thus, open questions remain regarding results from the smattering of such trials to date, including a trial of blood pressure drugs and stroke-induced dementia (Tzourio et al., 2003), and a folate trial that showed cognitive but not clinical improvement (Durga et al., 2007).

Similar questions plague drug trials for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), which lie in between primary prevention trials and trials in full-blown AD patients. As a diagnostic category, MCI is still hotly debated. Some view it as a condition that elevates the risk of AD, while others view it as an artificial construct that contains about 70 percent of people who, with more sensitive measures, can clearly be identified as having very early AD. Put simply, it’s a lumpers-versus-splitters argument about how to deal with a disease continuum. In practice, the boundaries between normal and MCI, and MCI and AD, are blurry enough that while one ADCS drug study reported that MCI has worked well as a diagnostic category (Petersen et al., 2005), other trial sponsors have encountered problems, Knopman noted.

A different clinical perspective came from Jeffrey Cummings of the David Geffen School of Medicine of University of California, Los Angeles. Cummings said that the FDA has provided good guidance but is now facing a new era. Advances in understanding the molecular mechanisms of AD have given rise to mechanism-based drugs that should be administered as early as possible, especially given a growing consensus among researchers that the diagnosed phase of AD represents the end phase of a disease process that has been silently occurring in the person for many years before symptoms appeared. This has created new circumstances for drug development and calls for a fresh look at the trial parameters that were developed for the symptomatic drugs of the 1990s, Cummings said. Cummings believes that disease modification is a sensible concept to pursue. He defined disease modification as a drug’s ability to slow the underlying AD pathogenetic process and change its clinical course (which cholinesterase inhibitors don’t do), not merely the ability of a drug to temporarily delay the disease course (which cholinesterase inhibitors do do). Cummings suggested these talking points for the collective discussion in the field:

Drug sponsors should adopt innovative trial designs such as staggered start and staggered withdrawal (Whitehouse et al., 1998; McDermott et al., 2002) and explore their potential to establish disease modification.

Trials should integrate biomarkers and focus on establishing correlations between markers and clinical outcomes. Specific markers and outcomes could be reasonably matched (e.g., global atrophy to global clinical impression, cingulate atrophy to behavior, hippocampal atrophy to episodic memory).

What is the smallest effect size that matters? Called the minimally clinically important difference (MCID), this concept has received surprisingly little study (Burback et al., 1999; Vellas et al., Lancet Neurology 2008, in press). MCID at present is determined statistically, but really should be determined clinically by the patient/caregiver, physician, and/or regulator. This would raise the bar.

The placebo problem needs a solution. In some recent trials, the placebo group has shown less than the expected rate of decline, and indeed was statistically indistinguishable from the group taking the drug. Part of the reason is that participants in U.S. trials typically receive cholinesterase and/or memantine treatment nowadays. In contrast, the Russian drug Dimebon (see ARF related news story) showed a larger difference between the treatment and placebo groups than is now typical in the U.S., in part because the Russian placebo group did not receive those AD drugs. The challenge of measuring decline in the placebo group is even more acute in very mild AD, because the expected rate of decline is very slow, and so longer trials are needed to show a treatment effect (Gold et al., 2007). Intention-to-treat analysis, where the trial includes data on all randomized people, including those who dropped out, has become standard in clinical drug studies, but it can stack the decks against a drug and end up underestimating its effect. Alternative data analyses, for example, per protocol observed case (PPOC) analysis, could support temporary marketing approval until larger studies in populations that were not enriched or pre-selected can provide additional safety data.

The more weakly a drug slows progression, the longer trials have to continue before the effect emerges; however, more patients drop out as trials drag on and intention-to-treat analysis then weakens the trial’s result. Given these opposing constraints, a 25 percent slowing might represent a workable minimum clinically significant difference, Cummings suggested.

For disease-modifying drugs, finding patients at the earliest possible stage of disease is much more important than it was for symptomatic drugs. To this end, an effort is underway to modernize diagnostic criteria (Dubois et al., 2007). Cummings suggested that a specific early AD symptom—for example, asking the same question over and over again as happens in episodic memory impairment—coupled with a biomarker reading that indicates AD, could be sufficient to include a person in a trial. That person would be diagnosed as having “AD without dementia.” This dual requirement would eliminate from trials the 30 percent of non-AD cases commonly found in MCI populations, who are thought to have diluted the drug effect in prior trials (see Knopman above.)

Both slope analysis (i.e., how does the drug change rate of decline?) and survival analysis (i.e., how quickly does the patient lose a pre-set function or progress to a pre-set clinical dementia rating?) by themselves don’t prove that a treatment has really changed the underlying disease process. Cummings agreed with Katz that a clinical measure is important in early-stage patients. He doubted that global clinical measures are appropriate and suggested that behavior offers better clinical outcome information at that stage. Current trials largely ignore psychiatric symptoms of AD, and their inclusion would shift AD drug development toward compounds that also treat this aspect of the disease. For example, trials could measure reduction of aberrant behaviors such as delusions and agitation that were specified at baseline.

In summary, Cummings recommended that the dialogue about meaningful outcome measures for future trials focus on defining measures that truly reflect effects on the underlying disease, on bridging the gap between biomarker and clinical endpoints in trials, and on ways to include earlier-stage patients.

The View from the Trenches
These were the FDA’s top-down societal perspectives, and the academic physician-researcher’s attempts to imbue clinical trials with the latest science. After that, Howard Fillit of the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation in New York City concluded the presentations with a view from the bottom up. Himself a geriatrician, Fillit asked what clinical meaningfulness means in the daily practice of the family physician or internist, the medical practitioners who care for the majority of AD patients. In essence, for the physician to decide to prescribe an AD drug, the effect of the drug must be robust enough to survive the reality of a 10-minute office visit during which the practitioner assesses a host of simultaneous diseases.

What are the challenges? Typically, a full-time family practitioner sees three or four AD cases per week, and diagnoses few new cases per year, especially of early-stage, younger patients where the incidence is low. Physicians in community practices frequently fail to recognize AD, due to limited or outdated training. As long as patients manage to maintain their social personality and carry on a short conversation during the exam, their early-stage AD is unlikely to get picked up, Fillit said. Even when it is, the prescribing physician may be reluctant to prescribed dementia medication especially for older patients who typically are already taking many other medications and so are at high risk of adverse drug interactions. In addition, prescribing additional drugs may force patients/caregivers to face insurance/Medicare caps for drug reimbursement. Another problem is that, among caregivers and primary care providers, AD drugs are viewed as being less effective than they actually are, Fillit said. Given all this, diagnosing AD frequently is not a top priority for the prescribing physician.

Fillit further noted a regulatory challenge in setting the right standards for clinical meaningfulness. In practice, people’s attitudes toward AD vary widely. Some patients and caregivers demand drug treatment to the full extent possible and see value even in small benefits such as a temporary slowdown in decline, while others refuse anything short of a cure. These extremes reflect widely different stances in people’s personal views on clinical meaningfulness.

Statistical outcomes are a prerequisite to getting new drugs on the market, but those data help little in getting it to patients, Fillit said. Physicians use neither the ADAS-cog nor the CIBIC scale. What matters most to patients and their caregivers is the patients’ ability to function at home. For the physician, the functional benefit of a drug must be straightforward to observe or measure. For example, functional life expectancy is an outcome that offers a straightforward way to explain drug effects to patients (Dodge et al., 2003). The prospect of a year more with one’s grandchildren would be meaningful to an early-stage patient, Fillit said. By the same token, disease-modifying therapies at advanced stages of AD may prolong a period of profound disability, he cautioned. Caregiver burden could serve as a meaningful outcome as well, for example, by measuring how much less time the caregiver spends helping the patient with activities of daily living.

Fillit expressed doubt that a drug approved to slow progression by, say, the suggested minimum of 25 percent, would easily take hold in practice. The patient would still get worse on the drug. At the three-, six-, and nine-month visits, the physician would have to persuade the caregiver that it’s worth putting up with the cost, side effects, and compliance problems because the patient would have declined a little more without the drug. In that situation, a measurable surrogate marker would help, Fillit said. By analogy, patients stay on statin therapy not because they can feel how the drug slows their atherosclerosis, but because a blood test tells them their cholesterol is down. Similarly, a surrogate marker would be helpful to move an AD treatment into mainstream care, Fillit said.

Patient versus Expert—A Tense Conversation
The workshop concluded with a panel discussion led by Sid Gilman of the University of Michigan Medical School in Ann Arbor. The panel brought together Katz, Knopman, Cummings, and Fillit, with Dale Schenk of Elan Pharmaceuticals in South San Francisco, Meryl Comer, Bill Bridgewater, a former business executive who has early-onset Alzheimer disease, and his wife Twyla.

Gilman started this conversation by saying that the way toward what he defined as the Holy Grail, i.e., a treatment that truly halts the basic underlying pathophysiology, could be found in innovative trials, such as staggered start trials with survival analysis and strong emphasis on biomarker data. Schenk emphasized that incorporating biomarkers into diagnosis and drug testing is the way forward. He noted that CSF biomarkers have been studied for well over a decade, and more than 300 papers have produced a compelling body of evidence that they work with an accuracy rate as high as that of a good clinician (e.g., Nitsch et al., 1995; Galasko et al., 1998; Sunderland et al, 2003; Hansson et al. 2006; Fagan et al., 2007). That they are still not widely used, nor considered formally validated, is by now an outdated obstacle holding back the field, Schenk said. He added that industry is ready to move a large number of new compounds into trials, and absolutely needs biologic endpoints with accepted metrics to be able to measure drug effects more easily. Katz replied that by law, the FDA is indeed allowed to approve drugs based on surrogates. Even so, the agency requires what he called a “face-valid” outcome, i.e., a measurable clinical improvement, because it is not willing to assume that the surrogate effect alone means the patient will get better. Katz cited historic examples where biomarkers did improve in the expected way, yet the patients did worse (see ARF related biomarker story). Reading between the lines, several attending scientists expressed hope that Katz was holding the party line in public, while preparing to change the agency’s thinking internally. The general sense among scientists at the workshop was that new clinical trials will break the impasse around biomarkers. Historically, imaging studies have not examined patients closely, and detailed clinical studies have included few biomarkers. Drug trials with strong biomarker components effectively force investigators to marry these different outcomes, Schenk said.

The ensuing discussion pitted the patient representatives’ sense of acute urgency against the cautious deliberations of the regulator and the medical establishment. This conversation is growing louder as early-stage patients themselves are increasingly advocating for more national awareness of AD and are pressuring funders, regulators, and drug developers to do much more. For example, the Bridgewaters serve on the FDA’s Alzheimer Disease Advisory Committee and speak at events around the country (see also Q&A with patient-advocate Richard Bozanich). At the ACT-AD workshop, Bill Bridgewater urged that the FDA fast-track candidate AD drugs in the way HIV drugs previously were. (The FDA last year fast-tracked AZD-103; see also ARF related news story.) His wife Twyla urged that cutting-edge drugs be more available to caregivers, who can become exhausted, poor, and depressed from the burden of many years of care. Meryl Comer, president of the Geoffrey Beene Foundation Alzheimer’s Initiative, described the toll that 12 years of caring for her husband, and now also her elderly mother, have taken. That toll is physical (i.e., sheer exhaustion from 24/7 care, with never enough help, for a heavier, stronger, frustrated spouse), professional (Comer left her job as a top broadcast journalist), financial, and emotional. “My definition of clinical meaningfulness is simple: A hand that lifts itself to feed, a mind that does not see the caregiver as an enemy,” Comer said.

Much of the discussion revolved around the contentious question of how much risk is acceptable. Comer asked regulators and drug developers to take on more risk both in how drug trials are conducted, and in terms of side effects. “We will happily manage side effects; that is what families do,” she said. Fillit noted that a recent survey reflected a growing willingness among patients and caregivers to accept risk from side effects as serious as stroke or even death. But accused of lax oversight by the media and Congress every time an approved drug makes the headlines for unexpected side effects, the FDA so far has shown little appetite for accepting more risk in either trial design or adverse event considerations for what is considered a particularly vulnerable patient population. Comer rejected this stance as paternalistic. She charged that if the FDA were to cling to old standards for clinical effectiveness, the agency would allow AD to become the untreated epidemic of the current generation. Bridgewater noted that he would tolerate a high degree of risk, knowing full well he has a terminal illness and remembering how it claimed his father. Cummings cautioned that not all risk is the same. A side effect that can be treated and resolved is one thing; a stroke that leaves the patient permanently worse, quite another. “I don't want that for my patients, because AD patients up to a certain level of impairment continue to enjoy their life,” he said.

For his part, Katz defended the FDA’s position by pointing to the many drugs with safety risks that are on the market with black-box labels. The agency has turned down very few AD drugs because they were too risky, he said. He assured the audience that side effects per se would not derail an otherwise effective drug. “If we had a drug that prevented AD and had a meaningful effect, we might tolerate a fair amount of risk,” Katz said. The discussion sounded as if the FDA is more prepared to tolerate the risk of side effects than the risk that a biomarker-driven drug might end up not working. The patient representatives countered that the FDA should leave more room for educated patients and their doctors to make decisions about which drug to choose. In closing, Gilman called on the various stakeholders to see themselves as a team, where everyone has a different role in the goal of making better medicines for AD.—Gabrielle Strobel.

[Poppholz]

immerhin sind wir über der $21,- Marke angekommen.

[roboty]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.150 von Holgus am 01.04.08 14:03:21

Holgus, Holgus wat haste dir verschönert!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.774.398 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 09:54:28

.deshalb habe ich gestern nach langen Überlegungen den gesamten Bestand meiner ELAN Aktien verkauft....

weil Bernie verkauft hat, steigt der Kurs wieder

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.780.095 von surga am 01.04.08 17:38:29

....Bernie macht manchmal so dumme Witze---und dann BEWIKEN sie auch noch ´was....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.780.208 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 17:48:41

..tja, so bin ich halt, Birgit...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.780.246 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 17:51:49

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.777.160 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.04.08 14:04:01

......von meinen 7100 Schätzchen ....

..Birgittttt !!!!!!
.... jetzt muss ich deiner Stückzahl wohl wieder hinterherlaufen...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.780.283 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 17:54:48

[Holgus]

Sperma sperma die Augen auf .... 21,30 .... freu

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.780.283 von bernie55 am 01.04.08 17:54:48

.....stimmt.... sind ja auch noch soo billich...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 188477 1/20/2008 2:56:43 PM
By: murko

AAB-001 works, the only question is how good it is

I think it is very likely that AAB-001 will work. The main issue for me is to judge how it will perform on a relative basis. The implications are huge, pricing and market penetration will largely depend on this relative performance and the observed side effects.
The best case scenario is that it stops the disease progression (or at least slows the rate of decline substantially) for a period of > than 2-3 years. At minimum it will beat Aricept on the rate of cognitive decline for a period of > 1,5 years. And of course anything in between these two borderline scenarios.

The best reference so far is the AN-1792 trial. This active immunotherapy produced anti-abeta antibodies very similar to AAB-001 and the proof of concept ( plaque clearance) was observed in all autopsies performed so far. The responders in this trial after 4,5 years follow-up did substantially better than placebo in terms of functionality, need for institutionalization and it appears that they also live longer. In terms of cognition, the placebo group declined from MMSE baseline of 20 to 10, while the treatment arm median is 13 (not statistically significant).

The decision to start PIII before final PII results indicates there is efficacy. However, the design of PIII trial with three dosing regimens for non-carriers suggests the results are not clear cut. That is not a negative, current knowledge suggests that AD is a multi-factorial and quite heterogeneous disease. It would be a miracle if a single drug could reverse the course of the disease.

Short term, Elan is a clear leader in AD drug development. Its abeta pipeline is the most advanced and the most diversified. What worries me a bit is the lack of AD pipeline directed at other than abeta targets. IMO the ultimate AD treatment will consist of a drug combo targeting abeta, tau, neuroinflammation and oxidative stress. That is not just my invention, Pfizer, Lilly, AZ, Merck and Novartis are already developing other than abeta AD drugs that could reach the market in 3-5 years.

[Holgus]

Wenn im Juli endlich die heißersehnten Ergebnisse bekannt sind,
werden wir bestimmt wieder auf 25 Dollar gehn ... geil.

Isch freu misch drauf

[Poppholz]

Finanzen.net
Elan Ersteinschätzung
Mittwoch 2. April 2008, 08:28 Uhr

Rating-Update:
Houston (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von Stanford Financial Group stufen die Aktie von Elan (ISIN IE0003072950/ WKN 903801) in einer Ersteinschätzung mit "hold" ein. (02.04.2008/ac/a/u)
Analyse-Datum: 02.04.2008


http://de.biz.yahoo.com/02042008/338/elan-ersteinschaetzung.…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.785.234 von Poppholz am 02.04.08 09:14:26

.....immerhin schon mal ein " hold "....

[bernie55]

..und wieder mal ein Erfahrungsbericht eines betroffenen MS Patienten...

By way of a quick update I had my 21 infusion today. As usual the infusion went without a hitch. Upon selecting my infusion chair from among the two remaining chairs (one was in use and a third patient was due in soon) I was informed that they would be taking my blood every three months for a liver enzymes test as a precautionary measure. They also gave me a hand out instructing me to be aware of a possible association with Tysabri and melanoma. This was all done in a very matter of fact way and the other two patients seem to care very little about this new wrinkle.

The patient who was receiving her infusion when I arrived was 70 yrs of age and was getting her 4th infusion. Her goal was to maintain an independent life and she felt that Tysabri offered her hope that this could happen. She was only able to walk for short distances but she still had hope for more, and so I told her about Vern Beachy and others who had made walking gains with Tysabri. You could see a sparkle of hope in here eye when she thought about the prospect.

The second patient was a 27 yr old former college basketball player who was currently a mother of 3 children and a diagnosed MS patient for only 2 yrs. It was a telling sign that my previously conservative Dr. started her on Tysabri after only one round of Steroids (No interferons, no Copaxone). Well she is now back to running and playing some basketball and has hopes of getting back her shot and the stamina in her legs that basketball and running require.

So as I’m waiting for my hour of observation to be over and the basketball player is about to finish her infusion, our Dr. comes in and asks if it would be all right for a new patient to talk to us about Tysabri since she seems to have some concerns. Well, this was the second time for me in this situation so I was obviously fine with the idea and surprisingly the young basketball player also like the idea and so we teamed up and gave the patient a good pep talk and it was just delightful for me a longtime Tysabri proponents to find out that this basketball player was as good if not better at assuaging this women fears than myself. For me it was the science and for the basketball player it was the personal connection. We were a good team and I have no doubt that my neurologist will be using this approach many times in the future. It is a combination neurologist and patient driven approach that is very effective at helping patients be comfortable with their choice. I give my Dr. great credit for utilizing this approach.

My neurologist one year ago had 20 patients on Tysabri. He currently has approx 60 patients. I would not be surprised to find out that a year from now he has 200.



http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=213230&pt=…

[bernie55]

Medication 'worsens Alzheimer's'

Tue, 01 Apr 2008

By BBC


Anti-psychotic drugs commonly given to Alzheimer's patients often make their condition worse, a UK study suggests.
Neuroleptics provided no benefit for patients with mild behavioural problems, but were associated with a marked deterioration in verbal skills.

The research focused on 165 people with advanced Alzheimer's who were living in nursing homes in four British cities.

Up to 60 per cent of Alzheimer's patients in nursing homes are given the drugs to control behaviour such as aggression.

The study appears in the journal Public Libary of Science Medicine.

The researchers, from Kings College London and the Universities of Oxford and Newcastle, found the drugs offered no long-term benefit for most patients with mild symptoms of disturbed behaviour.

But just six months of treatment was enough for patients to show a marked deterioration in their verbal fluency.

Further preliminary analysis already under way on the data suggests the use of neuroleptics may also increase death rates.

The research focused on patients living in nursing homes in Oxfordshire, Newcastle, Edinburgh and London.

All patients had been taking neuroleptics for three months. They either continued on the same medication for a further 12 months, or took a dummy pill.

Lead researcher Professor Clive Ballard, said: "It is very clear that even over a six-month period of treatment, there is no benefit from neuroleptics in treating the behaviour in people with Alzheimer's disease when the symptoms are mild.

"For people with more severe behavioural symptoms, balancing the potential benefits against adverse effects is more difficult."

Rebecca Wood, of the Alzheimer's Research Trust, said: "These results are deeply troubling and highlight the urgent need to develop better treatments."

The trust says that neuroleptics should only continue to be prescribed long-term to dementia patients with severe behavioural problems, and then only as a last resort when non-drug methods have been tried and have failed.

Neil Hunt, of the Alzheimer's Society, said previous research had also shown that anti-psychotic drugs raised the risk of stroke and death for people with dementia.

"This widespread overprescription to people with dementia must stop," he said.

"It is time we stop wasting money giving people drug treatments with no benefit and start investing in good quality dementia care."

A report into the use of anti-psychotics in care homes is due to be published by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Dementia this month.

The neuroleptics which came under analysis in the study were thioridazine (Melleril), chlorpromazine (Largactil), haloperidol (Serenace), trifluoperazine (Stelazine) and risperidone (Risperdal).

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=213232&pt=…

[Poppholz]

aktuell in den USA:

$21,80 zu $22,20

[Poppholz]

lauf Baby, lauf:

[Poppholz]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.788.707 von Poppholz am 02.04.08 14:35:35

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Aus dem Elanian Board;etwas zum Kontemplieren vom Board Geist....

Elanians msg # 8541 4/1/2008 4:13:30 PM
By: liposghost


youk knows this is a sophisticated board whose members understand the great wall street conspiracy. We can definitely tell our bull manure from that of chickens.
Only we understand that there is a chicken market as well as bull and bear ; and we are firmly entrenched in ther former.
Come to think of it Elan may be the ultimate chicken player's stock.
Best i can tell there is a faction that says aab 001 has no efficacy problems, and another faction that says it has no safety problems. My faction believes PII data will have us soaring with the eagles.
One day elmer will be right.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.792.207 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.04.08 19:06:19

One day elmer will be right


Jess, wie go heier ... tschiers

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.792.393 von Holgus am 02.04.08 19:22:36

yesssss!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.793.109 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.04.08 20:32:17

....denkste....im Minus....immer dasselbe Spiel!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.793.301 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.04.08 20:52:29

Egal ... wie go heier ... and if wie go loer ... dann is das eben heier

Tschiers

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.793.301 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.04.08 20:52:29

Wenn Elmer sagt "We go heier"
dann meint er damit Kellys Eier

Denn Kelly unter seinem Kilt
ein superdicker Rüssel schwillt

So is das ... tschiers

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 213641 4/2/2008 8:55:40 PM
By: delta_squared

Forbes article-Attacking Alzheimer's



http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0421/094.html

Executive Health
Attacking Alzheimer's
Robert Langreth 04.21.08, 12:00 AM ET


Dennis Selkoe


The drug industry has bet heavily on one theory about the disease. What if that theory is wrong?

In 1906 a German psychiatrist described the puzzling case of a 56-year-old woman who had just died after years of progressive memory loss and hallucinations. An autopsy found her brain shriveled and filled with strange protein deposits. The disease, which took on the name of the psychiatrist, Alois Alzheimer, still mystifies doctors a century later. Researchers still debate its cause. And there are no treatments that stop its relentless and fatal course.

But that could be about to change. In a multibillion-dollar gamble, some of the world's biggest drug companies have begun final-stage trials of drugs that aim to slow or halt the progression of the devastating dementia. The products of over two decades of research, these drugs target the prime suspect in Alzheimer's disease, the telltale amyloid clumps spotted by the German doctor.
By clearing out those deposits or halting their production, researchers hope to slow brain cell death and alter the course of the illness. Even a drug that eased the decline only modestly could keep millions of patients out of nursing homes for years. "If we could keep people who are still functioning from having any further decline for five years--then they would probably die from something else," says Todd Golde, a neuroscientist at the Mayo Clinic, in Jacksonville, Fla. "The impact would be immeasurable."

(MORE IN ARTICLE--FOLLOW LINK)

[Poppholz]

über $21,30.

[bernie55]

Executive Health

Attacking Alzheimer's
Robert Langreth 04.21.08, 12:00 AM ET


Ein Artikel u.a über ELAN / WYETH und

Dennis Selkoe , dem " Champion der Amyloid Theorie" !!!!


http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2008/0421/094.html

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.806.571 von bernie55 am 04.04.08 09:28:40

....der Artikel ist in seiner Stossrichtung eher zweifelhaft....

Gruss + GUTEN Morgen nach Elanville in Germany.....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214045 4/4/2008 3:30:24 AM
By: BARONS26

Re: Unfiltered Notes: Reversing the effects of AD


I recall a great deal of discussion about reversing the effects of AD by Élan in, I believe, the 2002 or 2003 era discussing AN 1792. Élan obtained a reversal of the effects of AD with animals. Memory returned after treatment. Élan explained they hoped for that result in humans. A very simplified version of the explanation was that when the plaque was removed, the neurons could fire across the synapse again and memory returned in portions of the brain, but not for the nerve cells where the plaque had been in place so long that the nerve cell had been permanently damaged.

After that era, I do not recall hearing much about our treatments reversing the effects of AD. Perhaps in the 2002 and earlier era management was promoting the stock so they were talking about this, and in the KM era, we were holding our cards close to our vest to not let the competition know what was happening. During either an AGM or a quarterly CC about 2 years ago, Lars mentioned Élan was going to say very little about results to avoid a competitive disadvantage.

On another subject, and I should go back to my notes on this, but this board had all sorts of discussion and speculation a little over a year ago, because WYE and Élan were saying BAP would not go into phase 3 early unless the interim look was "spectacular" or "extraordinary" or something like that. Was the timing of BAP’s entry into phase 3 such that we could reasonably assume the results were "spectacular" or did we enter phase 3 later than the timing contemplated by those comments? Before those comments were made, I do remember LARS, about 2 years ago saying in a web cast that the signal we should be looking for was whether we entered phase 3.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.806.604 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 09:32:03

Stossrichtung ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.009 von Holgus am 04.04.08 10:08:48

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.806.604 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 09:32:03

....der Artikel ist in seiner Stossrichtung eher zweifelhaft....


..wenn schon " stoßen " , dann wenigtens " Stoßrichtung " ansonsten kommt nur " stuss " raus....

+

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.596 von bernie55 am 04.04.08 11:02:35

wenigtens

....uuuppsss..

..da hab ich vor lauter ´s ´ das ´s ´vergessen....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.648 von bernie55 am 04.04.08 11:07:46

Bei manchen Frauen wär man auch froh, wenn es bei einer "Stussrichtung" bleiben würde ... gulp

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.853 von Holgus am 04.04.08 11:27:13

?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.808.333 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 12:08:20

Birgit, Du warst damit nich gemeint ... nö nö ... keine Sorge

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.808.397 von Holgus am 04.04.08 12:13:59

!

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.808.516 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 12:26:30

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.808.835 von Holgus am 04.04.08 12:52:45

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.808.867 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 12:55:24

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.809.274 von Holgus am 04.04.08 13:32:55

.....musst Du etwa immer das letzte Wort haben

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.810.308 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 15:08:18

ELN msg # 214058 4/4/2008 7:05:59 AM
By: stockhound4

Signs That We Are Sitting On The "MOAB" Mother Of All Biologics And Whats To Come


Moving AAB-001 from Phase II to Phase III before Phase II is complete.

Doing Phase III trials with 4,000 patients that will cost between 150 and 200 M dollars.

Doing A trial in Japan on AAB-001.

Doing A Sub Cutaneous trial on AAB-001.

Talking about building a manufacturing plant for AAB-001 before the product is approved and Wyeth has enough capacity to make it for the first X Million patients.

Hiring senior sales, marketing, quality and regulatory people to sell Alzheimers products before they are approved.

Taking 2 more buildings in South San Francisco to house all of the people they are going to hire to sell their Alzheimers drugs.

"Release of the phase II data is the most anticipated and potentially the most significant event to come out of the Biopharmaceutical world this year".

TSW.

Hound

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.810.308 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 15:08:18

Jaaa ... Birgit :

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.810.478 von Holgus am 04.04.08 15:21:38

....kannste vergessen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.810.643 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 15:35:28

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.811.588 von surga am 04.04.08 16:51:48

GRUSS!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.811.958 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.04.08 17:22:59

sehr schöne Wochenend-Entwicklung heute
Nächste Woche wird noch besser

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214179 4/4/2008 1:58:27 PM
By: okz45

This next month is setting up to be a Major Elan Roadshow

The AAN Conference is setting up to be a T Y S A B R I Jamboree,

We have the webcast of the 1st quarter Results on the 24th, Highlight will be the net effect of the Tysabri numbers given the day before by Curly and his Group.

Elan on Tour at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference on May1st.{ this Morgan Stanley "Week" is week long series of Conferences taking place in Key Biscayne, Florida and in Miami Beach Florida } This will get CNBC highlights and would expect them to have a roving reporter there. I doubt that anything new will come at this Conference but clearly it will be a different crowd than the one anticipated for the Elan Company Analyst Day.

May 7 th, A much anticipated Company Analyst Day. The First Annual was supposed to happen in 2005 but was scuttled dui to BM and out PML escapade. This will be a Elan highlight reel that will be directed to those who haven't a clue what a surprise package Elan really is. I anticipate that we will here some grandiose plans for a Biologics Mfg. Plant and a very broad picture of Elan's Business Plan. This will be produced and directed for Analyst . We have been on the inside for so long, so I don't know that it will be a hit with this Board. I happen to believe that Kelly & Co, excel at these presentations. Much pre and post work is done that facilitates an event like this. I would expect every invitee to be given an Elan Pack.

The AGM in Dublin on May 22. This one will be diected to we retail pissants, The Q & A here will
be a cross section of happy faces for the most part. Some here will never be happy.

April OEX is a toss-up. Much depends on how the AAN goes. What I find as the wild card is who decides to initiates Coverage next. You have to understand that the Totem Pole has been placed in the sand and BAP PII top line data will commence the gathering of all the Indians for an attack.
You initiate coverage so that when the data is released you just need to adjust your sentiment.
I would not be surprised if ML doesn't do something between now and Company Analyst Day, There will be a contingent from ML there. They will be a force in Elan in the long run. They
support there own when it makes sense.

It will be a pleasure to

Watch Elan Grow

my opinion

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Barrron's Cover April 7, 2008: Breakthrough? Wyeth's New Alzheimer's Drug Could Propel Stock
MONDAY, APRIL 7, 2008
BARRON'S COVER


IT APPEARED, AT FIRST BLUSH, SIMPLY A CLINICAL TRIAL gone badly awry. In late 2001, some 300 Alzheimer's patients, age 50 to 85, were injected with an experimental vaccine, code name AN1792, on the supposition they might develop antibodies to help clear their brains of the sticky deposits, or "plaque," so characteristic of Alzheimer's disease. If plaque could be removed, the theory went, mental deterioration might slow. But after most patients had been given just two doses, 18 developed signs of encephalitis, a severe inflammation of the brain. In January 2002, the study was halted.

Which might have been the end of it, had not follow-up work -- done months and, again, years later -- produced startling results. Patients who had developed the hoped-for antibodies after just a couple of doses of AN1792 were found, 4½ years later, to exhibit significantly slower cognitive decline than those who had not. Moreover, autopsies of responding patients who had died of unrelated causes revealed brain tissue surprisingly free of plaque.

Despite the serious side effect, the vaccine seemed to work, both in removing plaque and in slowing the patient's mental slide. The results offered support to a leading theory of what causes Alzheimer's: that a peptide called beta-amyloid is key to the buildup of toxic plaque in the brain and to the disruption of thinking. The apparent efficacy of the vaccine and fresh evidence confirming the cause of the disease raised the possibility that if researchers were to neutralize the adverse reaction, it would be a significant step toward developing a successful therapy for Alzheimer's.

Needless to say, for those afflicted with the disease and their families, such a long-sought but elusive treatment would provide hope where none exists. For New Jersey-based Wyeth (ticker: WYE) and its Irish partner, Elan (ELN), the companies sponsoring the research, it would hold out the prospect of a drug with exceptional promise. And for Wyeth, in particular -- whose shares have languished for a decade and been pummeled of late -- it could ultimately mean investment redemption.

More than five million people suffer from Alzheimer's in this country at an annual cost of nearly $150 billion, reports the Alzheimer's Association. The disease threatens to reach epidemic proportions in an aging population; one of eight people over age 65 has the disease, and nearly one of two over 85.

Drugs currently on the market -- Exelon by Norvartis, Aricept by Pfizer and Eisai, Namenda by Forest Laboratories, Razadyne by Johnson & Johnson -- sometimes ease symptoms. None stops the patient's inexorable decline into dementia and death.

Slowing the disease, and perhaps even reversing it, is precisely what Wyeth scientists have been after. Spurring them on has been compelling evidence they have a drug that seems to do just that, at least in mice. They have succeeded in the lab, both in giving mice Alzheimer's and then, by clearing the plaque in their brains, in taking it away.
[pic]
A Leader Turns Laggard, but a Recovery Is in Sight: Over the past year, shares of Wyeth have fallen nearly twice as much as the drug group. But with progress in testing a potential cure for Alzheimer's, plus other positive factors, the stock may be ready to reverse its long decline.

Tossed into a tub of water with a small platform out of sight just below the surface, normal mice learned, after only a few dunkings, to quickly find the platform. Mice with Alzheimer's, no matter how many times they were dunked, paddled round and round, unable to remember where the platform was. Unable, that is, until they were dosed with Wyeth's drug and their brains were cleared of plaque. Then they, too, began to find the platform.

"Exciting," is how Menelas Pangalos, Wyeth's vice president of neuroscience research, describes the various early experiments with mice. "The preclinical data was as good as you're going to get."

What works in mice often fails in humans, as the halted trial of AN1792 showed. Undeterred, Wyeth scientists revamped the mode of their attack, using a passive instead of active inoculation. What had gone wrong in the initial trial, they believed, was that by mobilizing the patients' own immune system to produce antibodies, the active vaccine had roiled T cells, triggering the brain inflammation. A passive vaccine, they reasoned, by supplying the plaque-fighting antibodies directly might eliminate the side effects.

And, indeed, the re-engineered drug -- a plaque-fighting monoclonal antibody dubbed bapineuzumab, or AAB-001 -- was generally well-tolerated after patients received a single dose in one of three strengths. While designed to demonstrate safety, the tiny Phase I study produced a surprising finding: Patients given a moderate dose of the drug evinced signs of mental improvement.

THUS ENCOURAGED, WYETH AND ITS PARTNER began a Phase II trial with 180 patients in 2005, later expanded to 240. They received "fast track" status from the Food and Drug Administration in February 2006, and in October 2006, Bob Ruffolo, Wyeth's head of research, disclosed plans for an "interim" peek at the study. After which, he said, Wyeth might finish up the trial as planned, or, if research merited, even before the study was done, might launch a Phase III trial. For this to happen, he cautioned, "results would have to be spectacular."

Results, obviously, were compelling enough that last May bapineuzumab advanced directly into Phase III trials. Preliminary findings of Phase II are to be disclosed in June.

The new trial is huge, the largest Phase III Alzheimer's study ever done, involving 4,100 people on several continents, and it's very expensive. As for safety, an FDA spokesman explained, speaking generally, regulators need a high degree of confidence in the safety of a drug to allow a company to launch a Phase III trial concurrent with a Phase II. As for efficacy, unless the drug showed intriguing signs of working, it's unlikely that Wyeth and its partner would be footing the bill for a global Phase III study estimated to cost on the order of $300 million.

Without disputing the sad truth that drugs designed to treat Alzheimer's have had notoriously high rates of failure, Wyeth execs are clearly upbeat about bapineuzumab's potential. Joe Camardo, senior vice president of global medical affairs, told a JPMorgan health-care conference early this year that bapineuzumab "could be the breakthrough the world needs for Alzheimer's," and he stressed: "It's not going to be an incremental symptomatic improvement. If it works, it's going to be a huge leap."

Scientists, too, are watching bapineuzumab with keen interest. John Hardy, professor of neuroscience at University College London and a researcher known for his work in developing the amyloid hypothesis (who has no financial ties to any drug company), finds bapineuzumab research "very interesting." Mouse data have been "extraordinarily strong," he feels, and while citing key differences in the brains of mice and men, he reckons bapineuzumab is no "long shot," but rather has "a good chance of working," and he puts the odds at even money.

One savvy health-care investor, Larry Feinberg, has been quietly making a sizable bet on the drug. President of Greenwich-based Oracle Investment Management, Feinberg, whose flagship health-care hedge fund was up 34% last year (and, on average, 21% annually over the past 18 years), believes bapineuzumab could be the first treatment to modify the course of the disease. If he's right, he figures it could easily surpass the $13 billion in sales of Pfizer's cholesterol drug, Lipitor, to "become the biggest drug of all time." The effect on Wyeth's stock, he ventures, would likely be huge, boosting it 50% in the next year or so.

That would be a welcome contrast to the stock's lackluster performance over the past year -- and the past decade. At $42, the shares are down sharply from a yearly high of $62 and sell at a modest 12 times the estimate for this year's earnings, which management forecasts at $3.35 to $3.49 a share (a tad lower than last year's $3.52).

An investor who bought shares exactly 10 years ago, moreover, when Wyeth was known as American Home Products, and held them through thick and thin, would today be down some 12%.

That sorry long-term performance can be largely blamed on Wyeth's two ill-fated diet drugs, Redux and Pondimin, which were part of the "fen-phen" craze of the late 1990s. Pulled from the market in 1997, they were implicated in serious heart-valve damage and primary pulmonary hypertension. The ensuing litigation dragged on for a decade and has cost Wyeth an astonishing $21 billion.

But there have been more recent setbacks. The widely anticipated approval of Pristiq to treat hot flashes and other menopausal symptoms was delayed by over a year when, in July, the FDA required more studies. A month later, the agency nixed approval of Wyeth's anti-psychotic drug, Bifeprunox. In early September, a court denied Wyeth's motion for a preliminary injunction against Teva Pharmaceuticals to prevent an "at risk" launch of a generic version of the Wyeth's $1.9 billion heartburn drug, Protonix.

THESE REVERSALS HAVE CAUSED INVESTORS TO ignore Wyeth's considerable attributes. With $22 billion in sales and a market cap of $56 billion, the company enjoys a strong balance sheet (cash outweighs debt), robust cash flow and lush profit margins. Last year, gross margins topped 72%, while on every dollar of sales, Wyeth earned a cool 20 cents, after taxes.

Its impressive stable of drugs, moreover, includes the top-selling antidepressant, Effexor ($3.8 billion); the leading vaccine, Prevnar ($2.4 billion), used in 86 countries to prevent pneumococcal disease in infants and children; and the world's No. 1 biotech drug, Enbrel ($5.3 billion), prescribed for rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis. Wyeth lays claims to a niche animal-health business and a $3 billion consumer-health franchise featuring stalwarts like Centrum, Advil, Preparation H, Robitussin and ChapStick.

Wyeth also has 10 other Alzheimer's drugs in development. Those in Phase I or II trials aimed at changing the course of the disease include ACC-001, an active vaccine made from the original peptide used AN1792; GSI-953, a gamma secretase inhibitor that seeks to halt production of beta amyloid, and PAZ-417, a plasminogen activator inhibitor that tries to enhance clearance of beta amyloid.

Wall Street may be skeptical of Wyeth's growth prospects, but even an analyst who finds its drug pipeline "unattractive" forecasts relatively stable earnings per share, not for a year or two, but for the next half decade: $3.42, $3.59, $3.64, $3.49 and $3.81. (Consensus estimates for this year are $3.41, and $3.68, next.) In the face of what may prove a rather trying recession, such stability could begin to shine.

LITTLE NOTED, TOO, IS that Wyeth is quickly transforming itself from stodgy big pharma into biotech. Biotech revenues currently chip in nearly a third of sales, up a robust 24% last year. And the company now ranks as the world's fourth-largest biotech firm.

In 2007, an estimated 50% of profits came from rapidly growing biologics and vaccines like Enbrel, with '07 sales up 36%, and Prevnar, whose revenues climbed 24%. Biologics tend to be high-margin pharmaceuticals with long commercial lives that do not as yet face generic competition. By 2012, an estimated 50% of Wyeth's sales and 75% of its profits are expected to come from such offerings, compared with a mere 10%-15% for the drug industry as a whole.

Also shrugged off by Street skeptics: The company's asset value approximates or exceeds its current stock price. Morgan Stanley's Jami Rubin figures that Wyeth's biologics and vaccines alone are worth $32 a share. Adding conservative estimates for the rest of the company, she comes up with an overall value of $41 a share -- valuing the drug pipeline at zippo. Feinberg does the exercise a bit differently and calculates a value in the neighborhood of $48 a share -- again, sans any contribution from drugs in development.

By either calculation, investors get Wyeth's drug pipeline, including 11 compounds targeting Alzheimer's, for nothing.

It's rare, indeed, even in today's stressed market, that the shares of a major drug company that's fast becoming such a formidable presence in biotech can be had for less than break-up value. A company, moreover, with a strong balance sheet, high margins and a stock that sells at only 12 times earnings. A company that has long been rumored a likely takeover target for a pharma giant like Pfizer (PFE) or Novartis (NVS). A company with a promising therapy for Alzheimer's that, essentially, you get free. And a company with a dividend yield of 2.7%, paying more than a five-year Treasury note while you await the final verdict on bapineuzumab, potentially "the biggest drug of all time."

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214370 4/5/2008 10:39:59 AM
By: ivBucks

Re: Barrron's Cover April 7, 2008: Breakthrough? Wyeth's New Alzheimer's Drug Could Propel Stock

"One savvy health-care investor, Larry Feinberg, has been quietly making a sizable bet on the drug. President of Greenwich-based Oracle Investment Management, Feinberg, whose flagship health-care hedge fund was up 34% last year (and, on average, 21% annually over the past 18 years), believes bapineuzumab could be the first treatment to modify the course of the disease. If he's right, he figures it could easily surpass the $13 billion in sales of Pfizer's cholesterol drug, Lipitor, to "become the biggest drug of all time." The effect on Wyeth's stock, he ventures, would likely be huge, boosting it 50% in the next year or so."

WYE Current Market Cap * 50% = Market Cap Increase of $27.80B

ELN Current Market Cap 10.22B + same Market Cap Increase 27.80B = $38B Market Cap / 472M Shares Outstanding = $80.50 stock price

So if Elan's half worked as good as Wyeth's then Larry would be predicting Elan hits $80 in the next year or so.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214398 4/5/2008 12:34:45 PM
By: donewithpunting

Re: You guys are saying $80 based on this one alz drug but don't forget that ELN....

Just like the home shopping networt BUT WAIT there is more
thanks smellybadger for the LLY/ELN comments from Goodbody

Goodbody, on LilyElan (Add)
Eli Lilly AD drug moves into Phase III trials
Analyst: Ian Hunter
Eli Lilly yesterday announced that it is moving its candidate drug LY450139 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (AD) into a Phase III clinical trial. The once-daily, oral medication is being tested to see if it can slow the progression of the disease in mild to moderate AD sufferers, by inhibiting gamma-secretase. This enzyme is associated with the production of beta amyloid, the constituent of the plaques found in the brains of AD sufferers. Under the IDENTITY trial (Interrupting Alzheimer's Dementia by EvaluatiNg Treatment of Amyloid PaThologY), LY450139 will be administered to 1,500 patients in the US and 21 other countries, over a 21-month period. Enrolment has now started with a study completion date of March 2012 guided. The primary endpoint measure is the rate of cognitive and functional decline in AD over time. There are a number of different tests incorporated into the study as secondary outcomes, including a brain scan to monitor the build up of amyloid plaques and tests on brain function and brain size. Elan collaborated with Eli Lilly in the early-stage development of this drug and retains the right to co-market the drug should it come to the market. It will also enjoy a royalty stream from any commercial product. The move of LY450139 into Phase III is well within the timeline flagged by Eli Lilly at the beginning of the year and the announcement gives us comfort that the drug is on track in its progress through the regulatory pathway. The drug is approaching the treatment of AD from a different perspective to AAB-001 as it looks to prevent plaque build up rather than dissolve existing plaques (AAB-001 action). Both approaches could prove effective in tackling a disease that is growing in importance as the population ages. Yesterday's announcement is an incremental positive for Elan's growing pipeline

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214605 4/6/2008 1:06:07 PM
By: nsdrum

Copied from Yahoo board "from Teadowner"

I appreciate his posts and sleep better knowing he is still lurking about. If Teadowner is not your cup of tea then why are you here reading this. If he is your Cup of Tea read on......................

The One-Two Punches from the Scoundrels 5-Apr-08 03:06 pm The Barron's article exposes the real intent of the Wall Street scoundrels. They have a motive to ignore Elan’s accomplishment and pumps Wyeth’s. Evidences are:

1.Mentioned Elan only once at the beginning.

2.Then referred to Elan as "Wyeth’s partner" for the entire article, and ignored Elan by name intentionally.

3.Pure FUD! Actually Bap is Elan’s drug and Wyeth is only a partner to pay the bill and make minor mopping ups. ACC-001 and gamma secretase are also Elan’s drugs, and Wyeth happens to be lucky as Elan’s partner.

The Wall Street scoundrels are suddenly bullish in Bap. First the largest broker (Merrill Lynch) suddenly conducted conference call touting Bap. Now within 3 days, the most read financial junk (Barron’s) is kissing Bap’s arse. Why the one-two punches coming from the heaviest hitters in Wall Street almost simultaneously?

Answer: Leaks about the P2 results!

[posimist]

Es zeichnet sich ab, dass unser Warten belohnt werden wird und überlege, doch noch einmal aufzustocken.
Komisch, dass dieser Larry F als Bio-Spezialist Elan unerwähnt läßt.

Jetzt muß sich nur noch der Dollar Richtung Kaufkraftparität drehen,die ist bei 1,15 - 1,20 Euronen,dann... .
posimist

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.824.179 von posimist am 07.04.08 11:25:55

mit dem Nachlegen bin ich nicht mehr dabei.

Im Mai wird geheiratet und wenn ich die Kohle dafür vorher in Aktien stecke und dann der Kurssprung ausbleibt, dann ...

Aber ich gehe auch davon aus, dass das Warten belohnt wird.

Eine entsprechende Korrektur des Wechselkursverhältnisses würde uns wohl auch allen gefallen.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.824.179 von posimist am 07.04.08 11:25:55

Jupps Posi ... das wär super.

Bei 1,18 hab ich damals meine Kohle umgetauscht und in die Staaten verfrachtet.
Wenn da tatsächlich bald mal was abzuschöpfen wäre (von dem Wenigen was mir noch geblieben ist), dann wärs bei einem deutlich besseren Umtauschverhältniss echt klasse.

Aber meinst Du da tut sich in Kürze was mit dem Dollar/Euro ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.824.179 von posimist am 07.04.08 11:25:55

....fein,fein,fein....

[bernie55]

From NCB and Orla

Elan Corporation $21.67 BUY Report Highlights Blockbuster Potential Of AAB-001

• Barron’s report that Wyeth’s Alzheimer drug bapineuzumab (AAB-001), which is being jointly developed with Elan, has the potential to become a blockbuster drug with sales that could surpass the $13bn mark. The report cites senior Wyeth executives ashighlighting the breakthrough potential of the drug and a Neuroscience Professor at the University College London as stating that the data to date is “extraordinarily strong” and estimating that AAB-001 has a 50% probability of success.

• The headline Phase II AAB-001 data will be released in mid-2008, while the entire Phase II data is expected to be released at the ICAD conference in late July 2008.

Paraic Quinn [phone] [e-mail]

Orla Hartford PHD [phone] [e-mail]


http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/morningrep/download/0407ncb.…

[bernie55]

Wyeth may rise if Alzheimer's drug works

- Barron's
Sun Apr 6, 2008 6:54pm

powered by Sphere


NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - Shares in Wyeth (WYE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could rise as much as 50 percent if an Alzheimer's treatment it is researching proves successful, according to a Barron's story in its April 7 edition.

A 2001 trial of an experimental vaccine for the disease ended after 18 out of 300 patients showed signs of a severe inflammation of the brain, according to the story.

But Wyeth and its Irish partner Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) are sponsoring research aimed at neutralizing the adverse reaction.

While it may take several more years for the treatment to be fully tested and reviewed by regulators, Oracle Investment Management President Larry Feinberg has been making a big bet on the drug, according to Barron's.

According to the story, Feinberg said that if the drug is successful it could boost Wyeth stock by 50 percent in the next year or so.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN063962032008…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214780 4/7/2008 6:04:13 AM
By: peadar_og

Barron's: Bap worth 47 billion dollars of market capital over 12 months or so.

"The effect on Wyeth's stock, he ventures, would likely be huge, boosting it 50% in the next year or so.”

To put this into perspective. Wyeth market capital is 55 billion. Boosting that by 50% would add $23.5 billion. Apply the same to Elan, who invested the drug and still own 50%, and you get a 230% increase, or $49.3 a share.

And I thought Tysabri had the potential to double our price over the next 12 months.

“Barron's reports Wyeth (WYE) executives are clearly upbeat about bapineuzumab's potential for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease. Scientists, too, are watching bapineuzumab with keen interest. John Hardy, professor of neuroscience at University College London, finds bapineuzumab research "very interesting." Mouse data have been "extraordinarily strong," he feels, and while citing key differences in the brains of mice and men, he reckons bapineuzumab is no "long shot," but rather has "a good chance of working," and he puts the odds at even money. One savvy health-care investor, Larry Feinberg, has been quietly making a sizable bet on the drug. President of Greenwich-based Oracle Investment Management, Feinberg, whose flagship health-care hedge fund was up 34% last year (and, on average, 21% annually over the past 18 years), believes bapineuzumab could be the first treatment to modify the course of the disease. If he's right, he figures it could easily surpass the $13 bln in sales of Pfizer's (PFE) cholesterol drug, Lipitor, to "become the biggest drug of all time." The effect on Wyeth's stock, he ventures, would likely be huge, boosting it 50% in the next year or so.”

Peadar ‘Og



ELN msg # 214781 4/7/2008 6:07:28 AM
By: peadar_og

Re: Barron's: Bap worth 47 billion dollars of market capital over 12 months or so.

Sorry, I meant to say it should add $49 per share to Elan over 12 months or so. That’s a total PPS of $70+. Silly me.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

JETZT GEHTS LOS!


ELN msg # 214794 4/7/2008 6:44:37 AM
By: ipar4s2

Financial Times early update 1.

Irish drug group Elan (Dublin: DRX.IR - news) gained 5.4 per cent to €14.58 on speculation the Alzheimer's disease treatment it is developing with US partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - news) will prove successful.

Traders pointed to a report in Barron's, the US weekly investment newspaper, which said Wyeth's shares could rise as much as 50 per cent if the treatment is successful.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214797 4/7/2008 7:04:15 AM
By: kcchris

Will be the first of many good days.

Lots of news for the months ahead. Stocks always anticipate news. You can expect the same here. At a minimum we will see the stock near $30 by the June release of AAB data. Tysabri sales will be released at the end of the month. The current patient count will be released next week. The entire pipeline will be reviewed on May 7th. The AGM in late May and finally the big news in June about P2 results.

What this typically means is the people that know what is going on will be buying in advance. So you can expect another run in the stock over the next few months. If the P2 data is great the run won't stop. It will be similar to the Ty announcement of an early filing. AAB will be the biggest drug ever. If ELN has half that revenue we will be changed forever. Tutes that normally sell after news won't because it will be clear that ELN will go much higher on approval.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.058 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 12:47:30

JETZT GEHTS LOS!

Na mal abwarten ... bevor es nicht wirklich richtig los geht, glaub ich da nich mehr dran.
Elan hat in der Hinsicht schon zu oft enttäuscht.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.661 von Holgus am 07.04.08 13:52:30

HOLGUS ____ICH ERTEILE DIR HIERMIT MECKERVERBOT--qua der mir eigenmächtig angeeigneten Autorität SOLANGE UNSER SCHÄTZCHEN
STEIGT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ich bitte um ZUSTIMMENDE RÜCKMELDUNG DER ÜBRIGEN BOARDMITGLIEDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNST:

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.771 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 14:05:22

Holgus ist halt unser "Gegenpol", damit es nicht heißt, dass wir hier einen PUSHER-THREAD haben.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.850 von Poppholz am 07.04.08 14:14:49

-wieso--HABEN wir doch....(Getreu dem Motto:Kauf Gutes und sprich darüber....)

[bernie55]

22,79 - 22,84

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.771 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 14:05:22

...tja, Holger,du wirst sehen, " we are going to the right direction " !!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.826.677 von bernie55 am 07.04.08 15:30:56

Go ELAN GO

[dasHaendchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.825.771 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 14:05:22

Meine freundliche Zustimmung hast Du.



Beste Grüße an alle ELAN-Investierten,
Robert

[dasHaendchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.827.680 von dasHaendchen am 07.04.08 16:39:03

Irgendwann passiert das wohl offensichtlich jedem einmal.

Naja, solange es nichts Schlimmeres ist, kann ich damit leben.

Gruß,
d.H.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.827.680 von dasHaendchen am 07.04.08 16:39:03

Danke!Ansonsten darf Holgie wählen zwischen Anti-Depressiva (chemisch),Natrium Muriaticum (homöopatisch gegen Verlustangst) oder Bachblütennotfalltropfen......

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.826.726 von bernie55 am 07.04.08 15:33:51

...tja, Holger,du wirst sehen, " we are going to the right direction



Das sagte die deutsche Wehrmacht kurz vor Moskau auch ... und wat is ????

Heut haben wir Pladimir Wutin !!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214912 4/7/2008 10:32:39 AM
By: WisemanFromEast

CNBC - BAP will be Biggest Biotech Drug EVER - Faber just stated on CNBC

Joe and David discussed for about a minute and David stated that he has from two very reliable sources that he trusts that this will be BIGGEST BIOTECH DRUG. Joe added quickly that PH II data about to be realese AND that Ph ase III has already been started.

Barron's got it started and now CNBC is finally giving it some proper air time.

ELN real-time is 23.08

[dasHaendchen]

Die $ 23,0 Marke?

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.827.731 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 16:42:24

... oder Bachblütennotfalltropfen

Komisch, war vor 10 min. grad in der Apo und hab Schüßler Nr. 6 gekauft.
Allerdings drück ich die meinem Hund in die Backentaschen ... will sonst noch jemand ??

[Holgus]

Natrium Muriaticum

Ich zitier da mal Ina Müller:

Kotzt de Buer eubern Trecker
war dat Freustück nich so lecker

Dat wör nu plattdütsch ... näch wohr

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.827.842 von Holgus am 07.04.08 16:49:36

ok,Schüsslersalze sind schon mal der erste Schritt zur inneren Reinigung......--ABER OB DAS SCHON REICHT gegen die immerwährende Meckerei?????????????????????????????????????????????

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.131 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:08:32

... gegen die immerwährende Meckerei??????????

Du Pumpziege Du ... wenn ich nich ab und zu dagegen halten würde, dann wärst Du bei Elan gedanklich schon im Bereich von 800 Dollar ... oder so.


Morgen kauf ich mir Schüßler Nr. 147 (Rentnerfußnägel in Ohrenschmalz).
Das hilft gegen Stangenfieber.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.208 von Holgus am 07.04.08 17:14:33

...na und....800$ wären doch auch nicht schlecht----das musst selbst DU zugeben....nur könnt´ich dann meinen Reichtum nicht mehr errechnen...--------vielleicht fehlen Dir ja auch nur Phantasie + Glückshormone????????????????????????

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.274 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:19:54

-----vielleicht fehlen Dir ja auch nur Phantasie + Glückshormone?????

Nöö, ich kann eben einfach nur klar denken ... ätsch

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.355 von Holgus am 07.04.08 17:26:21

WENN ICH jetzt gemein WÄRE,was ich natürlich nicht BIN und auch garnicht SEIN KÖNNTE.....aber nur mal gesetzt,W E N N........dann würde ich daraufhin sagen...:"....deshalb haste ja auch letztes Jahr so feine Optionen gekauft......:O.......--aber sowas würd`ich ja nie WIRKLICH schreiben-ist ja klar,oder....???

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.274 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:19:54

bei 7.100 Stück macht das $ 5.680.000,- bzw. € 3.618.000,-

(so grob geschätzt)

das habe ich mir auch schon mal ausgerechnet

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.441 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:32:40

ist ja klar,oder....???


Birgit, wenn Popel zicken könnten, wär das Münsterland `ne Nase

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.480 von Poppholz am 07.04.08 17:35:46

Danke Poppi....aber nee,nee--das würd´mich echt überfordern--das Zählen und dann noch das Ausgeben........also bleiben wir lieber erstmal bei den 80$ vorläufig

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.441 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:32:40

.. deshalb haste ja auch letztes Jahr so feine Optionen gekauft

Stimmt ausserdem, ich hätte lieber PDLI nehmen sollen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.561 von Holgus am 07.04.08 17:42:24

....ihhhhh--der war aber GEMEIN:O:O:O:O:O:O:O:O:O:O!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Siehst Du,wie HERZLOS DU bist

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 214991 4/7/2008 11:43:31 AM
By: youkei

DVR is a good thing. CNBC rough transcript.

JK: "Wyeth, over the weekend, in Barrons,--and the passing of Charlton Heston who had Alzheimers since 2002. The potential market for the drug, and admittingly you can't extrapolate from mice to humans. But it basically blocks, or gets rid of these plaques that people thing are involved in getting Alzheimers. So you can take these mice....you can reverse the Alzheimer...and you don't know what's going to happen. But there are a lot of people suddenly saying that this could be the biggest drug--bigger than Lipitor..."

DF: "This will--this could be the biggest event ever in Biotechnology."

JK: "You've heard that from someone independent from the Barrons piece?"

DF: "Yes--no, I have actually been speaking with a couple of folks whose opinions I respect greatly, who have been doing an enormous amount of work..."

JK: "Other than me?"

DF: "Other than you. But we'll see. Uh, phase two results could be released at any time from mid-May to the end of July..."

JK: "jkgjak starting phase three before phase two is over, too."

DF: "Yeah, lot of different data points. We'll see what the reaction is when we ultimately see that data, but could be a big new data jkjadj"

JK: "And you wonder, there's Alzheimers--you wonder how much just dimencha, old age, and pre-mature senility... how much of it might be the same analoid plaque type thing. We're all going to get old, hopefully."

DF: "The'll charge a lot of money if that drug is going to be successful. But it will be worth, every penny. That's for sure."

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.606 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:45:45

Siehst Du,wie HERZLOS DU bist

Nö, ich bin gaaaaaaaaanz lieb

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.662 von Holgus am 07.04.08 17:49:21

.......jaja--das sagen se immer Alle am Anfang......:O:O:O

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.688 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 17:52:20

.......jaja--das sagen se immer Alle am Anfang....


Betonung auf immer und alle ... Schatz, man sollte Dich entmännern

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.721 von Holgus am 07.04.08 17:54:46

wehe......mit Mühe den Liebsten herausgesucht und die kleinen "Monster" mit genau soviel Mühe zu netten Männern (ähm...im Rahmen der Möglichkeiten ,die das Geschlecht so bietet....)gemacht.....Gut dass die youngster nur bei studi VZ ´rumhängen----sonst hätte ich hier WIRKLICH HARTEN Gegenwind....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.789 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 18:00:27

Das männliche Geschlecht ist eben schon rein aus mechanischen Gründen für den Zustand "lieb" nur bedingt geeignet.

Aber dafür läßt sich ihre Intelligenz zum Glück in IQ-Werten beschreiben.
Bei Frauen ist das anders. Da setzt man den Zick-Wert an.

Also 1 Zick, 1,7 Zick ... o.ä.


Macht aber nix, werden eh nur zum Putzen benötigt ... u.a.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.828.856 von Holgus am 07.04.08 18:06:00

.......gib mir mal die TElNR.der werten MAMA.....muss ihr mal was erklären was SIE DIR dann vermittelt...-so,jetzt Schluss mit "off topic"---gehe jetzt in den Garten und dann Geburtstag feiern----ALSO PASST MIR SCHÖN AUF DEN KURS AUF....


ELN msg # 215014 4/7/2008 12:03:38 PM
By: kcchris

How can ELN be at $23

With the Barron's article today and the success of Tysabri ELN is way undervalued. I am looking forward to the P2 data. This summer is going to be huge. ELN will be $30 by May and if the data is great we could be $40-50 by June/July. This could be the biggest event in biotech history. Everyone is waiting for this news. If good enough they might even decide to go open label for P3. There could be a complete shift in WS perception of ELN. Don't rule out an announcement of a filing if the P2 results are spectacular.

Remember what happened to ELN when they announced an early filing for Tysabri? It will be nothing compared to the move if AAB is filed early.

Exciting times for ELN.

[Poppholz]

bin jetzt auch erst mal weg.

Kurs steht drüben bei $23,00

[dasHaendchen]

European Pharmaceutical ADRs Decline in Monday Afternoon Trading, but Elan Shares Advance

Shares of Elan Corp. PLC of Ireland rose Monday, bucking a downtrend among European pharmaceutical companies.

U.S.-traded Elan shares rose $1.50, or 6.9 percent, to $23.17. Leerink Swann analyst William Tanner reiterated an "Outperform" rating on the stock, saying he expects Elan to report more safety data about its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri and give other updates about products in its pipeline over the next few weeks.

Link zum Artikel:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080407/europe_adrs_in_focus.html

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.831.638 von dasHaendchen am 07.04.08 23:23:35

DANKE SUPI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

After Hours
Last: $ 24.24 After Hours
High: $ 24.30
After Hours
Volume: 17,800 After Hours
Low: $ 22.90

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 215286 4/7/2008 4:24:42 PM
By: Learned1

Leerink Swann reiterates "Outperform". "Elan could become one of the dominant biopharma companies".

Leerink Swann analyst William Tanner reiterated an "Outperform" rating on the stock, saying he expects Elan to report more safety data about its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri and give other updates about products in its pipeline over the next few weeks.

He added that Tysabri will become a significant treatment for multiple sclerosis, and sales will be better than expected. He also thinks bapineuzumab could change the way Alzheimer's disease is treated.
"We believe Elan could become one of the dominant biopharma companies in the next decade," Tanner said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080407/europe_adrs_in_focus.html?.v=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

UNBEDINGT angucken.....ist sicher für AH up verantwortlich.....

ELN msg # 215406 4/7/2008 6:05:20 PM
By: ridge303

Re: CNBC Video Fast Money / Jenner

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=705100259&play=1

[Holgus]

Moin Leutchens ...

Eines darf man bei aller Zuversicht nicht vergessen.
Falls es unter den Großen welche gibt, die über eine Elan-Übernahme nachdenken, dann werden sie recht bald aus den Büschen kommen.

Wenn der Aktienkurs erstmal durch die Decke gegangen ist, wird es für die Bigs verdammt teuer und das wissen die auch.

Na mal schaun wat dat so wird ... gelle

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.831.935 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 08.04.08 00:15:27

8 hours ago
Alzheimer's Miracle?
Posted By:Lee Brodie

Shares of Wyeth and Elan surged Monday on the promise of a new Alzheimer's drug.

Kris Jenner, M.D., lead portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund joins the panel for this conversation. Following is a summary of his main points.

Tell us about the drug.

AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.

The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!

Is it a cure?



It is not, replies Jenner. But it has the opportunity to really delay the very devastating effects. While not a cure, it could be a tremendous advance forward.

What are the odds it will make it to market?

I think the probabilities are good, replies Jenner, greater than 50/50. But we’re at a pivotal point so buyer beware. However, I think the upside here is unlike many other pharma opportunities.

Which company benefits most?

Elan Elan Corp PLCELN
23.17 1.50 +6.92% NYSE

.... will have much higher reward but also higher risk, he says.

With Wyeth WyethWYE
44.3 2.74 +6.59% NYSE

....you would participate but not have the same upside. We have a larger position in Elan



On a related note, Myriad Myriad Genetics IncMYGN
40.85 0.17 +0.42% NASDAQ


Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[MYGN 40.85 0.17 (+0.42%) ] and Lilly Eli Lilly and CoLLY
53.06 0.78 +1.49% NYSE


Quote | Chart | News | Profile
[LLY 53.06 0.78 (+1.49%) ] also have other Alzheimer’s drugs in the pipeline and could also be worth a look, adds Pete Najarian.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/23996775/?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.832.669 von bernie55 am 08.04.08 08:57:47

ELN msg # 215575 4/7/2008 9:38:52 PM
By: LovesJohnDory

The best part was the expressions on their faces.


Watch their faces as you watch the video -- these folks are used to hearing hype, and institutional shareholders talking their book. But there were several points when Jenner made comments that the panelists found incredible -- you can see it in their eyes. When Jenner was asked which is a better play, Elan or Wyeth, and Jenner said his fund has more Elan, they were surprised. When Jenner was talking about this possibly being bigger than Lipitor, they were getting the message. And when Jenner was discussing Lilly, and then dropped the little known fact that Elan has a right to 50% of the net income from Lilly's AD drug in Phase III (he called it a "call option," but in fact it is a no cost option to own 50% of the net income for seven years from the opt in date), the panelists looked incredulous. Great publicity. Hope there is carry through tomorrow.

[bernie55]

Todays Irish Independent

Alzheimer's prediction helps Elan jump 6pc
By Ailish O'Hora
Tuesday April 08 2008

Shares in Elan finished yesterday up over 6pc at €14.72 on the back of estimates that an Alzheimer's treatment co-developed by the Irish drugmaker and international giant Wyeth could notch up sales of over $13bn and surpass Pfizer's cholesterol treatment Lipitor to become the biggest drug of all-time.

According to a report in the influential Wall Street publication Barron's, healthcare investor Larry Feinberg, whose flagship healthcare hedge fund Oracle Investment Management has averaged 21pc over the past 18 years, said that the effect on Wyeth's shares could be a 50pc increase over the next year.

In early 2002, Wyeth was forced to halt an Alzheimer's vaccine trial after 18 out of 300 patients developed encephalitis. But the report stated that the two companies are sponsoring research aimed at neutralising the adverse reaction.

Wyeth researchers believe that what caused the brain swelling was the use of an "active" inoculation that mobilises the body's immune system to produce antibodies. So in 2005, they began testing a "passive" vaccine that supplies antibodies directly to fight senile plaques in the brain -- a characteristic feature of Alzheimer's Disease.

The US Federal Drug Administration (FDA) fast-tracked the study after patients seemed to show signs of mental improvement from even moderate doses of the drug. Results of the Phase II trial on 240 patients are due in June and there is also an ongoing Phase III trial, involving 4,100 people and costing an estimated $300m -- although it will probably be years before the treatment is fully tested and reviewed by regulators. Other biotechnology companies are also testing Alzheimer's treatments.

Elan is probably more famous for its multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri which is also used to treat Crohn's disease.

Shares in Elan tumbled back in February when it emerged that Tysabri could cause significant liver damage in patients.

At the time, the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that Elan and its US partner Biogen Idec had written to doctors to warn them of the danger.

Tysabri was taken off the market in 2005 shortly after its initial launch after three cases of a potentially fatal brain infection known as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy emerged.

The drug returned to the market in 2006 with limits after the FDA decided MS patients were willing to accept the risks in light of possible benefits.

- Ailish O'Hora


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=215671&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.831.808 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.04.08 23:47:36

Apr. 7, 2008 Market Close: $ 23.17

After Hours
Last: $ 24.14
High: $ 24.52
After Hours
Volume: 107,500
Low: $ 22.90

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.833.532 von bernie55 am 08.04.08 10:19:24

und Europa steht im Minus.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.833.588 von Poppholz am 08.04.08 10:24:54

StammdatenWKN
903801

Letzte Kurse

09:45:36

Geld 14,26

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.833.658 von bernie55 am 08.04.08 10:33:05

wahrscheinlich sind die NEWS einfach zu gut, um den Kurs steigen zu lassen.

(Bald werden wir übernommen und keiner bekommt es mit)

[GuHu1]

leicht hellgrün ist der kurs heute in usa dann doch noch.

@birgit,
thx für deine unermüdliche arbeit während der schwächelden phase, die meisten posten bei helau und alaf.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.841.336 von GuHu1 am 08.04.08 23:10:22

...thanks....Alles wird gut in Elanville! Guts Nächtle!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Guten Morgen!


Icahn ärgert Biogen---GUT SO!!Ob da wohl unser CEO Kelly Martin mit "hintersteckt".....immerhin kennen sich die Beiden aus alten Zeiten...

ELN msg # 216118 4/8/2008 11:31:33 PM
By: godivatruffles6

Reuters Update 1 on BIIB/Icahn

UPDATE 1-Icahn files suit to gain access to Biogen records
Tue Apr 8, 2008 11:18pm EDT

(Updates with comment from Biogen)

By Toni Clarke

BOSTON, April 8 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Carl Icahn filed suit on Tuesday to force biotechnology company Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) to hand over records related to the company's recent failed attempt to sell itself.

In a complaint filed in Delaware Chancery Court, Icahn demanded the right to inspect documents and board meeting minutes to determine what the board of directors knew about the sale process, which Icahn claims Biogen deliberately sabotaged.

According to the complaint, Icahn and his associates are demanding the documents in order to alert shareholders to any non-confidential information they discover about the performance of the board.

Naomi Aoki, a spokeswoman for Biogen, said the company does not consider the request valid.

"We think his request is another in a series of manipulative tactics to advance his single-minded agenda to force a sale of the company," she said. "This time he is using the request to continue to propagate his wild conspiracy theories."

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Biogen is one of the world's biggest biotechnology companies and maker of the multiple sclerosis drugs Avonex and Tysabri.

Icahn believes, and reiterated in his complaint, that Biogen sabotaged the sale by making it prohibitively difficult for potential buyers to talk to Biogen's partners Elan Corp Plc (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) of Ireland, with which it markets Tysabri, and biotechnology company Genentech Inc (DNA.N: Quote, Profile, Research), with which it markets the cancer drug Rituxan.

"This in turn prevented any potential bidders from learning where Biogen's third-party partners stood on exercising change-of-control options on key Biogen drugs," Icahn said in the complaint.

He is seeking three seats on its board of directors at the company's 2008 annual meeting, for which the date has not yet been set, and says the information will help Biogen shareholders decide whether existing directors should stay in their posts.

That by itself is reason enough not to give him the material, Aoki said.

"He is asking for the documents to make them public as part of the proxy process, so we don't consider that a proper purpose as defined by the law," she said.

Biogen shares rose 2 percent on Tuesday to $65.12, bucking a weaker broader market. The stock has gained more than 7 percent in the last three months. (Reporting by Toni Clarke; Editing by Gary Hill and Anshuman Daga)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Eine Frage für unseren Board-Pessimisten :ELN msg # 216050 4/8/2008 7:22:02 PM
By: godivatruffles6

The big question to ask yourself........how high does this stock have to go before you don't have to spend a significant part of your life on this message board? (eom)

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.842.218 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 09.04.08 08:40:12

... für unseren Board-Pessimisten

Können Sie die Adresse mal etwas konkretisieren, junge Frau ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 216009 4/8/2008 5:16:22 PM
By: aldental

"Elan position is a good idea....I probably should!"

Allow me to me paraphrase Pete on Fast Money!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.842.242 von Holgus am 09.04.08 08:43:39

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.842.276 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 09.04.08 08:49:24

Aha ... nö, is klar

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.842.330 von Holgus am 09.04.08 08:55:24

ja,ne...



ELN msg # 216127 4/9/2008 4:03:04 AM
By: donewithpunting

This volcano can erupt!

WOW!
1ST The world starts to hear about the potential ELN/WYE have fighting the war on ALZ and now CI can once again place focus on how under valued the TY franchise is!!,this will be complimented by factual data released at the AAN meeting,maybe CI also thinks it is an absolute crime/shame that this miracle wonder drug has ONLY 25+k patients currently using it?? With the PROPER management at the helm(KM is not at the helm)
The TY franchise can be PROPERLY BUILT PROMOTED AND DEFENDED as permitted by TOUCH


TY + ALZ+EDT+ etc= 1 grossly undervalued company currently selling at 2004 BARGAIN prices
(NOT FOR LONG!!!)

Presentations,CC's,investor day,AGM.....BUSY BUSY schedule...WOW!!! Very exciting times!!

Looking for another GREEN DAY!!

UP ELN

VOTE FOR CI
SAY GOOD BYE TO JM

[Poppholz]

habt Ihr mal gesehen, wie viele Leute bei ELAN gesucht werden?

http://www.elan.com/Careers/JobSearch/

die wollen ordentlich wachsen.

[Holgus]

author: cheapread

Re: Reuters Update 1 on BIIB/Icahn

....thinks..... who says Elan won't own BIIB by this time next year, aided and abetted by that very very nice man Icahn......


Jau ... und danach kauft Elan noch Microsoft incl. Billyboy Gates,
der dann bei Kelly Martin Schuhputzer wird

Tz tz tz ... der Größenwahn zieht ein

[dasHaendchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.843.868 von Poppholz am 09.04.08 11:20:53

Hallo Poppholz,

das ist ein sehr guter Indikator. Ein überaus guter Indikator. Danke für den Hinweis.

Gruß,
d.H.

[dasHaendchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.844.375 von dasHaendchen am 09.04.08 12:04:27

Sind es wirklich ingesamt 95 Stellengesuche? Beachtlich.

[bernie55]

Hallo ELANITES, Hallo ELANIACS...


NCB vom 9 April 2008
It is reported that Carl Icahn has sued BiogenIdec in an attempt to force the company to provide records in relation to its unsuccessful attempts to find a buyer last year. Icahn offered $23bn for BiogenIdec in October 2007 and has previously been reported to have been dissatisfied with the manner in which the process to find a buyer for the company was undertaken. Icahn claims that BiogenIdec refused to let bidders speak to Elan (partner for its Tysabri treatment) and that the sale process included a confidentiality agreement so restrictive that it prevented potential buyers for engaging in the bidding process.

• Elan and BiogenIdec share Tysabri through a 50:50 JV and a bid for BiogenIdec would trigger a Change of Control on Tysabri. Any prospective bidder for BiogenIdec would have to clarify Elan’s intentions on Tysabri and given the importance of Tysabri to BiogenIdec’s future growth, Elan is in a strong negotiating position.


http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/morningrep/download/0409ncb.…

[dasHaendchen]

Die offenen Stellengesuche haben mich überzeugt, noch ein (sehr) kleines Paket zu erwerben, was passiert ist. Jetzt ist es aber genug.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.844.940 von dasHaendchen am 09.04.08 12:52:41

Gratuliere, zumal Du mit Deinem Kaufkurs ca. 2,- Euro unter meinen letzten Kaufkursen liegst.

[Poppholz]

der Kursverlauf gefällt mir:

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.845.293 von Poppholz am 09.04.08 13:31:16

MIR AUCH!!! (Puh-habe den absolut blödesten Bürotag hinter mich gebracht...nicht nur dass meine Bürofrau UND ihre Vertretung krank sind,es ging auch noch das EC-Lesegerät kaputt + 20 Leute wollen mit Karte bezahlen......grrrrrrrrrrrr:O) GRÜSSE!


PS:Haendchen:gute Entscheidung!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.845.404 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 09.04.08 13:42:17

Hallo - " Birgit Baby " .....,...


.... dann gibt es halt money auf die Kralle...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.844.940 von dasHaendchen am 09.04.08 12:52:41

wir dürfen einfach nicht schreiben, dass von uns einer gekauft hat.

WIR VERKAUFEN AB JETZT NUR NOCH
(was damit gemeint ist, wissen dann ja alle Insider dieses Forums)

[Holgus]

Poppi, mit Deinen komischen Stockcharts kannst Du Dir das Carport tapezieren.
Die Dinger schon 100x gesehn und nicht ein einziges Mal haben die Recht behalten.


Eines jedenfalls sollte uns noch klar sein.

Die ganze Welt erwartet von Elan Mitte dieses Jahres gute bzw. Top-Ergebnisse zu AAB001.
Das bei einem Preis im Moment von rund 23 Dollar.

Sollten die Ergebnisse dann am Ende doch nicht so gut sein, können wir uns glücklich schätzen, wenn wir die 20 Dollar halten.

Dann sind wir wieder nur der kleine irische Saftladen, der statt Profit abzuwerfen, nur Miese produziert.
Und irgendwann mal gegen 2012 ein Alz-Medikament auf den Markt bringt.

Erwarte das Unerwartete ... da ist doch was dran, oder ? Aber das will hier eh keiner hören.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.847.202 von Holgus am 09.04.08 16:27:54

Holgie, Holgie, Holgie.

Wenn sich das einer mit Dir verscherzt hat, dann aber auch direkt für die nächsten 100 Jahre.

Mann bist Du nachtragend.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.847.565 von Poppholz am 09.04.08 16:53:40

Plödsinn Poppie ... es hat sich doch keiner verscherzt bei mir. Warum auch.

a) find ich eben nur die STOCK100-Dinger doof, weil sie halt noch nie Recht gehabt haben

b) und in Punkto Kursentwicklung gibt es eben auch noch die andere, "unerwünschte" Seite

Ich will doch auch, dass der Kurs sonstwo hin explodiert.
Doch hat Elan uns schon so oft eines Besseren belehrt.

Denke nur an die Wiederzulassung von Tysabri, wo der Kurs mal eben auf 19,xx hochschnellte.
Aber im selben Moment wurden auch die negativen Konsequenzen veröffentlicht und der Kurs semmelte total ab.
Ging runter bis unter 12 Dollar, um sich dann mühsam wieder hochzurappeln über einen langen Zeitraum.

Das kann eben auch passieren ... und dann gucken alle wieder wie belämmert

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.847.202 von Holgus am 09.04.08 16:27:54

Poppi, mit Deinen komischen Stockcharts kannst Du Dir das Carport tapezieren.
Die Dinger schon 100x gesehn und nicht ein einziges Mal haben die Recht behalten.
......find ich eben nur die STOCK100-Dinger doof, weil sie halt noch nie Recht gehabt haben



Hallo Holger, dann setzt dieses Wissen doch in €€€€€€€€€€ um ....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.848.383 von bernie55 am 09.04.08 17:59:13

heute hättest Du mit dem Wissen schon wieder ein paar Euro machen können.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Citi on Biogen 1Q2008 Earnngs Preview

Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB)

We Expect a Solid Quarter with Strong Tysabri Numbers

 Solid Q — We expect Biogen Idec to post a solid quarter due to strength in

Tysabri sales. However, we are lowering our Q1:08 non GAAP EPS to $0.74

from $0.76 vs. consensus $0.79 due to higher interest on the recent debt

offering, which is partly offset by our higher Tysabri estimates. This higher

interest also leads to lower FY:09 non GAAP EPS of $3.83 ($3.89 previously)

which lowers our target price by $1 to $69 (from $70).

 Tysabri Strong — We are increasing our Q1:08 Tysabri estimates to $156M

(vs. consensus range of $144M-$167M) due to strong U.S. IMS trends and a

2.5% price increase in January. Incremental price increases throughout '08

are likely. Biogen Idec will provide an update on PML at AAN (Apr. 12-19)

and likely on utilization as well.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

von 2004 - aber auf Deutsch +für die Begriffsklärung (Plaque,Tau,Peptide) interessant---

Forschungsschwerpunkte
Alzheimer-Krankheit

Die Alzheimer-Krankheit ist mit etwa 1 Millionen erkrankter Patienten in Deutschland und über 4 Millionen in den USA die häufigste Demenzerkrankung und die vierthäufigste Todesursache der über 85jährigen in der westlichen Welt. In 25 Jahren werden in der ganzen Welt schätzungsweise 22 Millionen Menschen erkrankt sein, sofern keine Therapie gefunden wird.

Die nach Alois Alzheimer (1864-1915), einem deutschen Neurologen und Psychiater, benannte Demenz wurde von diesem erstmals an der Patientin Auguste D. als Krankheit erkannt und wissenschaftlich beschrieben. Die Alzheimer-Krankheit entwickelt sich langsam über einen Zeitraum von etwa 30 Jahren im Gehirn der Patienten, bevor die ersten Symptome auftreten. Was anfänglich wie ein normaler Alterungsprozess aussieht führt nach und nach zu Vergesslichkeit und Teilnahmslosigkeit, Verlust der Sprachfähigkeit und des Urteilsvermögens, weitgehender Veränderungen der Persönlichkeit sowie Stimmungsschwankungen. Später verlieren die Betroffenen die Orientierung und erkennen selbst enge Verwandte wie Ehepartner und Kinder nicht mehr. Innerhalb weniger Jahre (im statistischen Mittel etwa 7 Jahre) werden die Patienten zum Pflegefall.

Die Häufigkeit und die hohe Pflegebedürftigkeit begründen die hohen direkten und indirekten Kosten der Alzheimer-Krankheit von schätzungsweise 10 Milliarden €uro pro Jahr allein für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Dabei wird die Belastung des Gesundheitssystems durch den hohen Pflegeanteil der Angehörigen, die ca. 80 Prozent aller Patienten zu Hause betreuen, deutlich abgemildert.


Schädigung einzelner Hirnregionen

Neurodegenerative Erkrankungen sind gekennzeichnet durch die Zerstörung des Nervengewebes, insbesondere der Nervenzellen, bei Abwesenheit externer Noxen, wie Trauma oder Entzündung. Der degenerative Prozess verläuft eigenständig und meist progressiv. Die wahrscheinlich bekanntesten neurodegenerativen Erkrankungen sind die Parkinson-Krankheit und die Alzheimer-Krankheit (Alzheimer Demenz, AD). Das Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten ist äußerlich stark verändert; mikroskopisch kann der Verlust von Nervenzellen beobachtet werden. Nach heutigem Stand der Forschung werden bei der Alzheimer-Krankheit unterschiedliche Proteine krankhaft verändert und innerhalb bzw. außerhalb der Nervenzellen abgelagert. In den "amyloiden Plaques", die zwischen den Nervenzellen liegen, wird das Amyloid-Beta-Peptid (Peptid = Bruchstück eines Proteins) angereichert und in den "neurofibrillären Faserbündeln" (innerhalb der Nervenzellen) wird das Tau-Protein abgelagert. Diese Ablagerungen stören die Kommunikation zwischen den Nervenzellen und zerstören letztlich die Nervenzellen selbst. Damit können die oben beschriebenen Verluste verschiedener Hirnfunktionen erklärt werden. Während die "amyloiden Plaques" bereits sehr früh im Entwicklungsprozess der Alzheimer-Krankheit beobachtet werden, treten die "neurofibrillären Faserbündel" relativ spät auf, korrelieren jedoch sehr gut mit dem Grad der Demenz.


Erbliche Formen der Alzheimer-Krankheit

Etwa 10-20 Prozent der AD Fälle sind familiär bedingt. Klinisch zeigt sich meist ein früherer Krankheitseintritt ("early onset") als bei den so genannten sporadischen Formen. Genetische Studien an den betroffenen Familien haben zur Identifizierung von bislang drei Genen geführt, deren Mutationen der Erkrankung zugrunde liegen können. Als erstes wurde ein Gen auf Chromosom 21 identifiziert, welches das Beta-Amyloid Vorläufer-Protein (Beta-APP, Beta-Amyloid Precursor-Protein) codiert. Durch Spaltung des Beta-APP werden A-Beta-Peptide freigesetzt, die aggregieren und die Hauptkomponente der "Amyloiden Plaques" darstellen. [4,6,7]. 1995 wurden zwei weitere Gene identifiziert, die wegen ihrer Bedeutung bei der familiären Alzheimer-Krankheit mit frühem Erkrankungseintritt Präseniline benannt wurden.


Sporadische Formen der Alzheimer-Krankheit

Alle Fälle der Alzheimer-Krankheit, die nicht auf Mutationen einzelner Gene zurückgeführt werden können, nennt man sporadisch. Charakteristisch für diese Gruppe ist die relativ späte Entwicklung klinischer Symptome („late onset“), mit stark ansteigender Erkrankungshäufigkeit jenseits des 65. Lebensjahres. Obwohl Mutationen bisher nicht identifizierter Gene für den Ausbruch verantwortlich sein könnten, scheint die überwiegende Anzahl der hier zusammengefassten AD-Fälle nicht auf einzelnen Gendefekten zu beruhen. Eine genetische Veranlagung, wie beispielsweise das e4 Allel des ApoE Proteins, könnte jedoch die Entwicklung klinischer Symptome beschleunigen. Die Ursachen sporadischer AD sind aber noch unklar.


Aktueller Stand der Forschung

Wichtig ist, dass das klinische Bild der familiären und der sporadischen Alzheimer-Krankheit identisch ist, sie unterscheiden sich nur im Zeitpunkt der Erkrankung. Daher können auch alle Forschungsergebnisse in ein einziges Gesamtbild der Krankheit einfließen. Das komplexe Zusammenspiel der einzelnen Komponenten auf der Ebene der Proteine im Gehirn und somit die Ursache der Alzheimer-Krankheit ist bis heute unbekannt.


Diagnose

Trotz weltweiter Forschungsanstrengungen konnten die biochemischen Grundlagen der sporadischen AD noch nicht aufgeklärt werden; eine sichere Diagnose ist nur post mortem durch Autopsie möglich. Ein Schwerpunkt der aktuellen AD-Forschung stellt daher die Identifizierung eines biochemischen Markers zur spezifischen Diagnose in einem möglichst frühen Stadium der Krankheit dar. Parallel dazu werden die biochemischen Grundlagen erforscht, um ein Targetmolekül für eine zielgerichtete Behandlung zu finden.


Medikamente

Derzeit werden einige Medikamente eingesetzt bzw. getestet, die zwar nicht die Ursachen der Alzheimer-Krankheit bekämpfen, aber immerhin die anfänglich auftretenden Symptome lindern und den Verlauf bremsen können. So erhöhen die Acetylcholinesterase-Hemmer, Doenzepil und Tacrin, die Menge des Botenstoffs Acetylcholin im Gehirn, von dem Alzheimer-Patienten zu wenig haben. Andere Wirkstoffe erhöhen die geistige Leistungsfähigkeit und steigern das Gedächtnis der Patienten. Im letzten Jahr wurden Tierexperimente bekannt, bei denen ein Impfstoff auf Basis des Amyloid-Beta-Peptids zumindest bei Mäusen die Bildung der „Amyloiden Plaques“ verhindern konnte und teilweise sogar bei erkrankten Mäusen die Lernfähigkeit wieder herstellen konnte. Dieser Ansatz könnte, falls am Menschen erfolgreich getestet und ohne Nebenwirkungen, mittelfristig eine Heilung ermöglichen.


Neurofibrilläre Faserbündel

Die "neurofibrillären Faserbündel" wurden im zurückliegenden Jahrzehnt nur von wenigen Forschergruppen untersucht, da deren Entstehung meist als später Nebeneffekt des Geschehens um das Amyloid-Beta-Peptid erklärt wurde. In den letzten Jahren jedoch wird den krankhaften Veränderungen des Tau-Proteins zunehmend größere Beachtung geschenkt. Schon in den frühen 90er Jahren wurden abnormale Modifikationen des abgelagerten Tau-Proteins als mögliche Ursache der Fibrillenbildung erkannt. Das abgelagerte Tau-Protein - und somit wahrscheinlich auch das im Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten vorliegende Tau-Protein - hat einen sehr hohen Phosphatgehalt, d.h. an bestimmte Stellen des Proteins sind Phosphatgruppen gebunden.


Das Tau-Protein

Tau-Proteine sind spezifisch für das Nervensystem und unterstützen die Bildung und die Stabilität der Mikrotubuli, einem Bestandteil des Zellskeletts. Die Tau-Proteine binden sich in einem dynamischen Prozess an die Mikrotubuli und lösen sich bei Bedarf wieder ab. Im Gehirn des erwachsenen Menschen liegen 4 bis 6 unterschiedlich lange Varianten des Tau-Proteins vor, während in fötalem Hirn nur eine Form gefunden wird. Die längste Variante beim Menschen besteht aus einer Kette mit 441 Aminosäuren. Im Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten wird das Tau-Protein nun offenbar auf mehrere Arten spezifisch modifiziert z. B. durch Phosphorylierung, Glycosylierung etc.


Unsere Forschungsziele

Diese krankhaften Veränderungen des Tau-Proteins im Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten sind das Ziel unserer Forschungsanstrengungen. Wir wollen sowohl das Phosphat- als auch das Zucker-Muster des Tau-Proteins beim gesunden Menschen und bei Alzheimer-Patienten analysieren. So sollten beide Arten von Protein-Modifikationen sowohl die Funktion als auch die Struktur des Tau-Proteins beeinflussen und so die Wechselwirkung mit anderen Proteinen im Gehirn verändern. Die Identifizierung derart krankhafter Veränderungen des Tau-Proteins im Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten würde nicht nur neue Forschungsansätze bieten sondern könnte auch neue Wege für eine Diagnose oder Therapie eröffnen. Unsere Arbeiten sind im Bereich der Grundlagenforschung angesiedelt.


Unsere Ergebnisse

Anfang 1997 konnten wir erstmals für die Alzheimer-Krankheit typische Phosphat-Muster am Tau-Protein identifizieren. Allgemeines Merkmal war die unmittelbare Nähe zweier benachbarter Phosphatgruppen. Ferner konnten wir zeigen, dass diese Phosphatgruppen die Struktur des Tau-Proteins ändern und so die Bindung an die Mikrotubuli entscheidend behindern könnten. Damit haben wir einen neuen Weg hin zu einer früheren Diagnose der Alzheimer-Krankheit eröffnet und neue Einblicke in die mögliche Funktion der Phosphatgruppen am Tau-Protein gewonnen. Wir haben Tau-Proteine aus verschiedenen tierischen Hirnproben isoliert und gereinigt. Erste Analysen dieser Proben haben gezeigt, dass sowohl Zucker- als auch Phosphat-Moleküle an das Tau-Protein gebunden sind und die Probe wesentlich komplexer ist als erwartet. So entstehen durch die Bindung von Zucker- und Phosphatmolekülen aus zunächst 5 Tau-Proteinen mehrere Dutzend Spezies, die sich in ihren chemischen und physikalischen Eigenschaften unterscheiden. Diese Unterschiede der einzelnen Spezies und die daraus resultierenden Konsequenzen für die Funktion des Tau-Proteins in der Nervenzelle werden wir in den folgenden Monaten weiter untersuchen.


Glossar

Aß-Peptid
Ein Peptid bestehend aus 40-43 Aminosäuren, das durch Spaltung des Proteins ßAPP (Amyloid-Vorläufer-Protein, Amyloid precursor protein) im Gehirn produziert wird. Bei der Alzheimer-Krankheit wird eine erhöhte Produktion des Aß-Peptids, insbesondere der „krankhaften“ Form mit 42 und 43 Aminosäuren, beobachtet.

Amyloide Plaques
Ablagerungen des Aß-Peptids (entsteht aus dem Protein ßAPP) zwischen den Nervenzellen, insbesondere im Hippocampus (Gedächtnisstruktur) und in der Großhirnrinde.

Demenz
Oberbegriff für die Minderung erworbener intellektueller Fähigkeiten als Folge einer Hirnschädigung mit kognitiven Störungen, Störungen der Wahrnehmung, Gedächtnisstörungen, Denkstörungen, Störung der Orientierung, Veränderung der Persönlichkeit usw.

Neurofibrilläre Tangles
Diese Ablagerungen liegen innerhalb der Nervenzellen und enthalten als Hauptkomponente krankhaft veränderte Formen des Tau-Proteins. Der Name stammt von der mikroskopischen Form der Ablagerungen, die aus Knäuel vom paarweise umeinander gewundenen Fasern des Tau-Proteins bestehen.

Pathologie
Teilgebiet der Medizin, das sich mit der Lehre abnormaler und krankhafter Veränderungen im menschlichen Organismus beschäftigt, insbesondere den Ursachen und der Entstehung und Entwicklung von Krankheiten.

Tau-Protein
Mittelgrosses Protein das in seiner längsten Variante beim Menschen aus 441 Aminsäuren (kleinste Bausteine) aufgebaut ist. Das Tau-Protein stabilisiert die Mikrotubuli (verantwortlich für Struktur und Form der Zelle, sowie Transport) innerhalb von Zellen. Bei der Alzheimer-Krankheit wird eine veränderte Form in den neurofibrillären Bündel innerhalb der Nervenzellen abgelagert.



home Bioanalytik, [e-mail], 05.12.2004

[Holgus]

Hallo Holger, dann setzt dieses Wissen doch in €€€€€€€€€€ um ....
... heute hättest Du mit dem Wissen schon wieder ein paar Euro machen können.

Was haben meine Anmerkungen mit dem Thema "Wissen" zu tun ?

Pffft ...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

HI

Es scheint so,dass AAB nicht nur die Plaquen zwischen den Zellen klärt sondern auch die Peptide IN den Zellen....


Re: Eu satellite tv / We have fantastic posters here !
This is from a pm that I had sent a couple of our posters last night.

"""do you recall an abstract or some write up in alzforum.org that would tell us whether
aab-oo1 is taking care of the intracellular peptides as well ... I thought I read somewhere
that it does both intra plus extra .... but can`t find it it anymore :o(( """



From Bio`s paper:

"""The results presented in this paper by the Gouras research group present a mechanism by which
passive administration of antibodies against Aβ peptide reduces intracellular Aβ levels.

This mechanism comes in addition to previously proposed mechanisms that mainly account for extracellular Aβ clearance.

This paper provides new insights regarding the mechanism underlying the beneficial effect of Aβ immunotherapy in terms of reduced cerebral Aβ and increased cognitive function.""

I thank each and everyone for the time you spent on answering this question !

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 16.813.097 von zenman am 06.06.05 09:03:17

ELN msg # 216596 4/10/2008 9:09:14 AM
By: stockhound4

Fast Money Alzheimers News Rehash Just Out

Fast Money's Alzheimer's Blockbuster Trades: Kris Jenner, lead portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price Health Science Fund, joined the "Fast Money" traders on Monday's show to discuss the prospects of a new Alzheimer's drug being developed by Wyeth (WYE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Elan (ELN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). Jenner told viewers, "The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer's patients in the U.S. and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/year that's a $10 billion drug!" Fast Money's Alzheimer's

[Poppholz]

die haben unser Forum umgebaut.

[Poppholz]

ist doch noch ein schöner Chart geworden am gestrigen Tag in den USA

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.863.010 von Poppholz am 11.04.08 08:08:01

Stimmt! Moin Poppi + all!


Sinds nun die Plaquen und Eiweissablagerungen im Hirn (...die mich meinen Autoschlüssel nicht finden lassen)oder ein spezifisches Gen oder Entzündungen im Hirn ?????????????????????????



By: goodtoreadthis

Bloomberg report on Alz research by WYE,LLY, Eln, and MYGN

Wyeth, Lilly, Myriad Compete on Alzheimer Drugs for 18 Million
By Elizabeth Lopatto and Michelle Fay Cortez

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Eli Lilly & Co., Wyeth, Elan Corp. and Myriad Genetics Inc. are in a competition to develop drugs for delaying or halting Alzheimer's disease, the most common form of dementia that affects 18 million people worldwide.

Myriad plans to release in June the results from human tests of a medicine that scientists say may be the first therapy to counter the root cause of Alzheimer's, not just improve symptoms as do existing medicines. The report may indicate the potential for Wyeth, Elan and Lilly drugs.

Doctors say current medicines, with $5 billion a year in sales, only alleviate symptoms for a few months in patients who often suffer a progressive loss of memory and function for years before dying. The new drugs are the first designed to block damage to neurons from plaque in the brain. Critics say the new approaches may fail if they don't address the disease's underlying cause, which they say is still a mystery.

``There is a whole lot of skepticism about all of these drugs as they progress through clinical development,'' said David Heupel, a Minneapolis-based money manager with the $60 billion fund Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. ``It's a high- risk, high-reward business.''

The companies' treatment candidates could achieve annual sales of $20 billion or more after 2012 if proven useful, according to Cowen & Co. analyst Ian Sanderson in Boston. About 5.2 million people in the U.S. have Alzheimer's, a figure expected to reach 7.7 million by 2030 as the population ages, according to the Alzheimer's Association, an advocacy group based in Chicago.

History of Losses

The Alzheimer's-related revenue would be a boon to the drug developers. Myriad, a Salt Lake City biotechnology company with an accumulated deficit of $265.5 million as of Dec. 31, sees its drug, called Flurizan, as an opportunity to turn its first profit.

Elan, based in Dublin, now relies on the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri for revenue growth. While the product generated $232 million for Elan in 2007, it's been linked to a rare, fatal brain condition and liver damage in some patients.

Wyeth, based in Madison, New Jersey, has had four drugs delayed by U.S. regulators in a year, and faces the loss of patent protection on the heartburn pill Protonix and the antidepressant Effexor.

Myriad rose $1.36, or 3.4 percent, to $41.71 at 4 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Wyeth rose $1.84, or 4.2, percent, to $45.55 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, while Lilly rose 62 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $52.39. Elan rose 60 euro cents, or 4.2 percent, to 15 euros, in Dublin trading.

Experiments With Mice

While Alzeimer's was first identified in 1906, research into the disease accelerated 20 years ago when researchers identified a handful of genes that predispose people to the condition. A decade ago, scientists created mice that developed the so-called plaques and tangles that accumulate in the brains of people with the disease.

The mice gave investigators an animal model to use for testing new theories and treatments. Many scientists theorize that attacking the plaques that damage neurons in the brain will stem the disease. The plaques are made of a substance called beta amyloid, the target of the drugs being tested.

The approach represents a gamble because scientists have yet to demonstrate that inhibiting beta amyloid, or preventing its formation, will help slow or defeat Alzheimer's.

`It's Not Amyloid'

Alzheimer's may stem from a dysfunction in the way cells use energy, not from the plaques, according to Allen Roses, a professor of neurology at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.

``I believe it's not amyloid that's the cause,'' said Roses, who discovered a gene that has been linked to early-onset Alzheimer's. ``It's a sign or symptom. Taking out the amyloid might be pathologically nice but clinically irrelevant.''

Myriad's drug, Flurizan, reduced production of beta amyloid in mouse studies, leaving 70 percent less of the substance to accumulate in the brain. Mice treated with the drug fared better in water mazes.

A subsequent 207-patient trial in humans with mild to moderate Alzheimer's showed that the drug wasn't better than a placebo at slowing the progression of dementia or improving ability to perform daily tasks. Patients with the mildest condition getting the highest dose of the drug did experience an improvement.

The company's 1,864-patient study involves only patients with mild forms of the disease who were given the highest 800 milligram dose. Patients will receive the drug for a longer period than in the earlier test to tease out any benefit.

Lilly's drug, called LY 450139, is the first of a class of medicines called gamma secretase inhibitors. The drugmaker began enrolling patients on March 31 in a late-stage trial required for regulatory approval, the company reported. Like Myriad's product, the drug works by preventing the formation of beta amyloid. The Lilly trial will last 21 months.

Manmade Antibodies

Wyeth and Elan's bapineuzumab is a manmade version of the antibodies in the immune system that fight foreign invaders. The drug is designed to remove protein deposits from the brain. Results from a trial, the second of the three phases of human testing normally needed for U.S. approval, are scheduled for July.

Wyeth has more than 350 scientists working on Alzheimer's disease and has spent more than $500 million on the disease since 2001. About half of Elan's $335 million annual budget for research and development is going toward Alzheimer's disease, said spokesman Andrew Lewis.

Lilly has more than 200 researchers working on Alzheimer's disease, said spokeswoman Christine Van Marter. She declined to comment on how much the company is spending. Myriad Genetics will spend about $60 million on the disease this year, said spokesman William Hockett.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Lopatto in New York at [e-mail]; Michelle Fay Cortez in Minneapolis at [e-mail]

Last Updated: April 11, 2008 00:01 EDT

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Über die weiteren strategischen Eventualitäten....


ELN msg # 216930 4/10/2008 6:25:17 PM
By: ATmouse

Re: The new plant-sling/snug

You're absolutely right- my bad.

I don't really have a prediction on this one. Here are a few observations and hunches:

I understand that there's excess worldwide capacity for biologics.

I understand that Wyeth has significant capacity for biologics, and could handle AAB-001 demand for some time.

I understand that Wyeth WILL manufacture AAB-001, at least in the short run (this might cover the possibility of an early FDA filing/approval).

I understand that Elan needs to have manufacturing capabilities for biologics, if it intends to be a "serious standalone world class pharmaceutical company" going forward.

I understand that Elan has disclosed that it MAY build a plant to make AAB-001, with no indication of either timetable or cost ("significant" means "material", whatever that implies).

I predict that, if TSW as well as some of us think it does, Wyeth is very likely to make a serious run at acquiring Elan, probably later in 2008. [Elan will in all probability not break ground for a new plant in the next several months.]

I understand that the Elan standstill agreement with Biogen (which expires sometime in 2010, I believe) gives Biogen the right to buy (at some negotiated/arbitrated price) the other half of Tysabri if there is a "change of control" at Elan (read: if Wyeth buys Elan). It would certainly be better for Elan if the Wyeth offer comes AFTER the expiration of this agreement.

I'm certain that Curly (opps, I meant Jimmy) is desperate to get his hands on the other half of Tysabri- in fact, he's been planning for that eventuality, and has deliberately done his best to slow down the commercial uptake of Tysabri (thereby creating an argument for a lower purchase price for the other 50%).

I suspect that the May 7 meeting MAY be aimed at convincing the investors (read: a handful of Boston insties) that THE REST OF ELAN is so exciting that it would be folly to sell any shares at whatever price Wyeth is likely to offer in a few months. And it might be folly to sell any shares to Wyeth prior to 2011.

All pretty exciting stuff- and it's all likely to happen (or not) in the very foreseeable future.

It's the "or not" that I'm worried about.

I'm not sure that I have the intestinal fortitude to wait several more years for the end of this saga.

Bob

[Poppholz]

Thursday, April 10, 2008 - 2:44 PM PDT
PDL BioPharma plans to spin off part of its business
San Francisco Business Times

PDL BioPharma Inc. intends to spin off its biotechnology business as a separate, publicly traded company.

Separating that part of the company from its royalty-based antibody humanization business. It will capitalize the new business with about $375 million in cash when the deal is complete. That's enough money for about three years of operations.

PDL brought in $221.1 million in royalty revenue in 2007 from its eight antibody humanization patents, associated with drugs from Genentech (NYSE: DNA), MedImmune Inc., Elan Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: ELN) and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE).

Redwood City-based PDL (NASDAQ: PDLI) last month wrapped up the sale of its top-grossing drugs and a manufacturing facility in Minnesota and said it would shed nearly 600 jobs as it seeks to reformulate itself as a developer of antibodies for cancer and immune system diseases.

Last week, PDL said it would pay four top executives close to $1 million in bonuses through 2009 to keep them with the restructuring drug development and research company.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2008/04/07/d…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.863.315 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.04.08 08:55:42

Sinds nun die Plaquen und Eiweissablagerungen im Hirn (...die mich meinen Autoschlüssel nicht finden lassen )oder ein spezifisches Gen oder Entzündungen im Hirn ?????????????????????????


....oder vielleicht nur ein spezifisches Frauenproblem ???



Grüße bernie55

PS: ...so jetzt werden wir uns an das neue Outfit von WO gewöhnen müssen...
...aber das kriegen wir doch hin, ne ??!!

Zumindest müssen wir die Seiten nicht suchen ....

[bernie55]

BBC News - Hope over US Alzheimer's therapy
Hope over US Alzheimer's therapy
By Adam Brimelow
Health correspondent, BBC News

More than 400,000 people in the UK have Alzheimer's disease
Further research is needed into a US treatment for Alzheimer's disease that appears to produce marked improvements in some patients, experts say.

California researchers believe they have found a way of improving brain cell communication by injecting a drug called etanercept into the neck.

The Institute for Neurological Research team has described changes taking place in Alzheimer's patients within minutes.

British experts have expressed caution, but say further research is merited.

More than 400,000 people in the UK have Alzheimer's disease.

Current medication can slow the disease, but charities say there is a desperate need for research to develop more effective treatments.

Improvements

Doctors in California have devised a novel approach, injecting anti-arthritic drug etanercept into the neck, and then tilting the patient to encourage blood flow into the brain.

About 50 people are being treated at the private clinic.

Some have been taking etanercept for more than three years. Doctors report a response rate of about 90%, usually within minutes.

They say typically they see a week-by-week improvement with each dose, reaching a plateau after about three months.

Professor Edward Tobinick, who leads the research, said: "What we see is an improvement in their ability to think and calculate, their memory improves, their verbal ability improves, they find words easier, they seem happier, and we often also see an improvement in gait in those patients whose gait is affected."

But he warned they did not return to normal.

I think it is the time to run a small clinical trial

Dr Suzanne Sorensen, of the Alzheimer's Society


In video footage, supplied and edited by the clinic, a nurse sits down with 82-year old Marvin Miller, who frowns and mumbles incoherently as she asks him a series of basic questions.

He fails to recognise everyday objects including a bracelet and a pencil. Shortly afterwards he is injected with his first dose of etanercept.

Five minutes later - according to the footage - he greets his wife, who stands visibly shocked, saying he has not recognised her for years.

Mr Miller then embraces her.

In a separate interview, again supplied by the clinic, she describes his improvements four weeks later.

She says he makes sense 90% of the time now, compared with none of the time before treatment started.

Etanercept is not a new drug. It is a widely used treatment for arthritis, blocking a chemical called tumour necrosis factor-alpha, or TNF, which causes pain and swelling in the joints.

TNF may also affect communication between brain cells - and could be partly to blame for the advance of Alzheimer's.

The researchers in Los Angeles believe they have discovered a way of delivering etanercept into the brain via an injection in the neck, allowing it to block the disruption caused by TNF.

However, many experts are sceptical.

Study

The numbers involved are very small, and crucially, there has never been a placebo-controlled study.

But Dr Suzanne Sorensen, head of research at the Alzheimer's Society, said there was growing interest in this new approach.

"We haven't heard any realistic accounts of people improving that much. And that is why when we first heard about it in January I didn't really believe it to be honest.

"But we have now seen film footage of people improving remarkably very soon after having been given the drug and many more people have now been treated with this drug. So I think it is the time to run a small clinical trial."

Professor Clive Holmes, of Southampton University, said he was willing to take this on, although funding had yet to be secured.

"I think the evidence that's coming through from basic science would suggest to me that there is now a point at which it's worth giving these drugs a trial to see if there is any evidence on a larger scale basis".

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=217007&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.864.246 von bernie55 am 11.04.08 10:27:08

"FRAUEN"Problem----W I E B I T T E ??????????????????????

Ich sage nur PROJEKTION AM WERKE.....

[bernie55]

Elan Corp (USc)
ELN US
AAN conference to include several presentations on TysabriJack Gorman

The annual American Academy of Neurology (AAN) meeting will be held in Chicago from April 12th-19th. The majority of the scientific sessions and presentations will be held between the 15th and 17th.
Tysabri will be well represented as usual, with almost 20 oral or written presentations (although abstracts are available, there is an embargo on publishing details until release dates). Most of these presentations/posters are supported by Elan and BIIB and ultimately are designed to influence prescribing behaviour.

Included will be updates on the TOUCH and TYGRIS safety-related programmes, the STRATA study on Tysabri re-dosing, the PLEX study on the effectiveness of plasma exchange on Tysabri removal, and the independently-funded study on JC virus findings which caused controversy during February. We would also expect all the companies involved in MS therapies to present data and release many of their findings to the media.

Elan and BIIB will also take the opportunity to update on Tysabri patient numbers for Q1 2008. Our forecasts call for approximately 25,000 patients to be on the drug at the end of the first quarter, representing a net addition rate of approximately 380 a week since the start of the year (using 13 weeks). This would represent some acceleration on the 340 a week rate reported for the last quarter of 2007 and would help support our Q1 revenue forecast of $158m, up from $129m in Q4 2007. The small (c.2%) price increase taken in Q1 should also be beneficial.

We would anticipate a 60/40 split in revenues between US and non-US territories.


http://www.davy.ie/Generic?page=MorningNews6

[bernie55]

Bloomberg report on Alz research by WYE,LLY, Eln, and MYGN
Wyeth, Lilly, Myriad Compete on Alzheimer Drugs for 18 Million
By Elizabeth Lopatto and Michelle Fay Cortez

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Eli Lilly & Co., Wyeth, Elan Corp. and Myriad Genetics Inc. are in a competition to develop drugs for delaying or halting Alzheimer's disease, the most common form of dementia that affects 18 million people worldwide.

Myriad plans to release in June the results from human tests of a medicine that scientists say may be the first therapy to counter the root cause of Alzheimer's, not just improve symptoms as do existing medicines.
The report may indicate the potential for Wyeth, Elan and Lilly drugs.

Doctors say current medicines, with $5 billion a year in sales, only alleviate symptoms for a few months in patients who often suffer a progressive loss of memory and function for years before dying. The new drugs are the first designed to block damage to neurons from plaque in the brain. Critics say the new approaches may fail if they don't address the disease's underlying cause, which they say is still a mystery.

``There is a whole lot of skepticism about all of these drugs as they progress through clinical development,'' said David Heupel, a Minneapolis-based money manager with the $60 billion fund Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. ``It's a high- risk, high-reward business.''

The companies' treatment candidates could achieve annual sales of $20 billion or more after 2012 if proven useful, according to Cowen & Co. analyst Ian Sanderson in Boston. About 5.2 million people in the U.S. have Alzheimer's, a figure expected to reach 7.7 million by 2030 as the population ages, according to the Alzheimer's Association, an advocacy group based in Chicago.

History of Losses

The Alzheimer's-related revenue would be a boon to the drug developers. Myriad, a Salt Lake City biotechnology company with an accumulated deficit of $265.5 million as of Dec. 31, sees its drug, called Flurizan, as an opportunity to turn its first profit.

Elan, based in Dublin, now relies on the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri for revenue growth. While the product generated $232 million for Elan in 2007, it's been linked to a rare, fatal brain condition and liver damage in some patients.

Wyeth, based in Madison, New Jersey, has had four drugs delayed by U.S. regulators in a year, and faces the loss of patent protection on the heartburn pill Protonix and the antidepressant Effexor.

Myriad rose $1.36, or 3.4 percent, to $41.71 at 4 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Wyeth rose $1.84, or 4.2, percent, to $45.55 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, while Lilly rose 62 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $52.39. Elan rose 60 euro cents, or 4.2 percent, to 15 euros, in Dublin trading.

Experiments With Mice

While Alzeimer's was first identified in 1906, research into the disease accelerated 20 years ago when researchers identified a handful of genes that predispose people to the condition. A decade ago, scientists created mice that developed the so-called plaques and tangles that accumulate in the brains of people with the disease.

The mice gave investigators an animal model to use for testing new theories and treatments. Many scientists theorize that attacking the plaques that damage neurons in the brain will stem the disease. The plaques are made of a substance called beta amyloid, the target of the drugs being tested.

The approach represents a gamble because scientists have yet to demonstrate that inhibiting beta amyloid, or preventing its formation, will help slow or defeat Alzheimer's.

`It's Not Amyloid'

Alzheimer's may stem from a dysfunction in the way cells use energy, not from the plaques, according to Allen Roses, a professor of neurology at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.

``I believe it's not amyloid that's the cause,'' said Roses, who discovered a gene that has been linked to early-onset Alzheimer's. ``It's a sign or symptom. Taking out the amyloid might be pathologically nice but clinically irrelevant.''

Myriad's drug, Flurizan, reduced production of beta amyloid in mouse studies, leaving 70 percent less of the substance to accumulate in the brain. Mice treated with the drug fared better in water mazes.

A subsequent 207-patient trial in humans with mild to moderate Alzheimer's showed that the drug wasn't better than a placebo at slowing the progression of dementia or improving ability to perform daily tasks. Patients with the mildest condition getting the highest dose of the drug did experience an improvement.

The company's 1,864-patient study involves only patients with mild forms of the disease who were given the highest 800 milligram dose. Patients will receive the drug for a longer period than in the earlier test to tease out any benefit.

Lilly's drug, called LY 450139, is the first of a class of medicines called gamma secretase inhibitors. The drugmaker began enrolling patients on March 31 in a late-stage trial required for regulatory approval, the company reported. Like Myriad's product, the drug works by preventing the formation of beta amyloid. The Lilly trial will last 21 months.

Manmade Antibodies

Wyeth and Elan's bapineuzumab is a manmade version of the antibodies in the immune system that fight foreign invaders. The drug is designed to remove protein deposits from the brain. Results from a trial, the second of the three phases of human testing normally needed for U.S. approval, are scheduled for July.
Wyeth has more than 350 scientists working on Alzheimer's disease and has spent more than $500 million on the disease since 2001. About half of Elan's $335 million annual budget for research and development is going toward Alzheimer's disease, said spokesman Andrew Lewis.

Lilly has more than 200 researchers working on Alzheimer's disease, said spokeswoman Christine Van Marter. She declined to comment on how much the company is spending. Myriad Genetics will spend about $60 million on the disease this year, said spokesman William Hockett.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Lopatto in New York at [e-mail]; Michelle Fay Cortez in Minneapolis at [e-mail]

Last Updated: April 11, 2008 00:01 EDT

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=217000&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.864.454 von bernie55 am 11.04.08 10:50:08

...Herzchen---Du hättest mal nach meiner Autoschlüsselsuche weiterlesen sollen......DA stand nämlich der Artikel schon.....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.864.362 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.04.08 10:39:02

....PROJEKTION AM WERKE....

...ich habe im Schrank leider keinen Dia- PROJEKTOR mehr.....

Grüße bernie55

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.864.772 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 11.04.08 11:26:37

Herzchen---Du hättest mal nach meiner Autoschlüsselsuche weiterlesen sollen......DA stand nämlich der Artikel schon.....


> HERZCHEN, da siehste mal, wie ich den Frauen zuhöre bzw. ihre Zeilen lese....

..oder besser so:

> HERZCHEN,da siehste mal wie ernst ich die persönlichen Fragen bzw. Probleme der Frauen nehme und dann alles um mich herum vergesse.....

Grüße bernie55

[Poppholz]

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